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Sources of seasonal water-supply forecast skill in the western US

Many water supplies in the western US depend on water that is stored in snowpacks and reservoirs during the cool, wet seasons for release and use in the following warm seasons. Managers of these water supplies must decide each winter how much water will be available in subsequent seasons so that they can proactively capture and store water and can make reliable commitments for later deliveries. Long-lead water-supply forecasts are thus important components of water managers' decisionmaking. Present-day operational water-supply forecasts draw skill from observations of the amount of water in upland snowpacks, along with estimates of the amount of water otherwise available (often via surrogates for antecedent precipitation, soil moisture or baseflows). Occasionally, the historical hydroclimatic influences of various global climate conditions may be factored in to forecasts. The relative contributions of (potential) forecast skill for January-March and April-July seasonal water- supply availability from these sources are mapped across the western US as lag correlations among elements of the inputs and outputs from a physically based, regional land-surface hydrology model of the western US from 1950-1999. Information about snow-water contents is the most valuable predictor for forecasts made through much of the cool-season but, before the snows begin to fall, indices of El Nino-Southern Oscillation are the primary source of whatever meager skill is available. The contributions to forecast skill made available by knowledge of antecedent flows (a traditional predictor) and soil moisture at the time the long-lead forecast is issued are compared, to gain insights into the potential usefulness of new soil-moisture monitoring options in the region. When similar computations are applied to simulated flows under historical conditions, but with a uniform +2°C warming imposed, the widespread diminution of snowpacks reduces forecast skills, although skill contributed by measures of antecedent moisture conditions (soil moisture or baseflows) grow in stature, relative to snowpacks, in partial compensation. Forecast skills, e.g., of March forecasts for April-July water supplies from those parts of the region that yield the majority of the runoff, decline by an average of about 15% of captured variance in response to the imposed warming.

Conference Paper↗

Occurrence of phosphorus in groundwater and surface water of northwestern Mississippi

Previous localized studies of groundwater samples from the Mississippi River Valley alluvial (MRVA) aquifer have demonstrated that dissolved phosphorus concentrations in the aquifer are much higher than the national background concentration of 0.03 milligram per liter (mg/L) found in 400 shallow wells across the country. Forty-six wells screened in the MRVA aquifer in northwestern Mississippi were sampled from June to October 2010 to characterize the occurrence of phosphorus in the aquifer, as well as the factors that might contribute to high dissolved phosphorus concentrations in groundwater. Dissolved phosphorus concentrations ranged from 0.12 to 1.2 mg/L with a median concentration of 0.62 mg/L. The predominant subunit of the MRVA aquifer in northwestern Mississippi is the Holocene alluvium in which median dissolved phosphorus concentrations were higher than the Pleistocene valley trains deposits subunit. Highest phosphorus concentrations occurred in water from wells located along the Mississippi River. A general association between elevated phosphorus concentrations and dissolved iron concentrations suggests that reducing conditions that mobilize iron in the MRVA aquifer also might facilitate transport of phosphorus. Using baseflow separation to estimate the contribution of baseflow to total streamflow, the estimated contribution to the total phosphorus load associated with baseflow at the Tensas River at Tendal, LA, and at the Bogue Phalia near Leland, MS, was 23 percent and 8 percent, respectively. This analysis indicates that elevated concentrations of dissolved phosphorus in the MRVA aquifer could be a possible source of phosphorus to streams during baseflow conditions. However, the fate of phosphorus in groundwater discharge and irrigation return flow to streams is not well understood.

Mississippi↗

Occurrence, distribution, and transport of nutrients in Eastern Iowa Rivers

Eleven streams in the Wapsipinicon, Cedar, Iowa, and Skunk River basins in eastern Iowa were sampled monthly from March 1996 through September 1998 to assess the occurrence, distribution, and transport of nitrogen, phosphorus, and suspended sediment as part of the U.S. Geological Survey's National Water-Quality Assessment Program. At least one form of dissolved nitrogen and phosphorus was detected in every sample collected. Nitrate accounted for 92 percent of the dissolved nitrogen. About 22 percent of the samples contained nitrate that exceeded the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Maximum Contaminant Level of 10 milligrams per liter (mg/L) as nitrogen in drinking water. The median concentration of total nitrogen for surface water in the study area was 7.2 mg/L. Dissolved phosphorus was predominately in the form of orthophosphate. The median total phosphorus concentration for the study area was 0.22 mg/L. About 75 percent of the total phosphorus concentrations exceeded the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency recommended total phosphorus concentration of 0.10 mg/L or less to minimize algal growth in streams not discharging directly into lakes or impoundments. Median suspended-sediment concentration for the study area was 82 mg/L. Nitrogen, phosphorus, and suspended-sediment concentrations varied annually and seasonally. Nitrogen, phosphorus, and suspended-sediment concentrations increased each year of the study due to increased precipitation and runoff. Concentrations were typically higher in the spring after fertilizer application and runoff. In winter, nitrogen concentrations typically increased when there was little instream assimilation by aquatic plants and algae. Nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations decreased in late summer when there was less runoff and instream assimilation of nitrogen and phosphorus by aquatic plants and algae was high. Suspended-sediment concentrations were highest in early summer during runoff and lowest in January when there was ice cover with very little overland flow contributing to rivers and streams. Streams draining small- to medium-sized watersheds that have uniform land use and geology had significantly (p < 0.05) higher total dissolved-nitrogen concentrations (median, 8.2 mg/L) than did samples from large rivers (median, 6.2 mg/L) that drain basins with mixed land use and geology. Samples from large rivers typically had significantly (p< 0.05) higher total phosphorus and suspended-sediment concentrations than did samples from small rivers and streams. Concentrations varied between drainage basins due to land use and physiography. Basins that are located in areas with a higher percentage of row-crop agriculture typically had samples with higher nitrogen concentrations than did basins with less row-crop agriculture. In addition, basins that drain the Southern Iowa Drift Plain and the Des Moines Lobe typically had samples with higher total phosphorus and suspended-sediment concentrations than did basins that drain other landform regions. Total nitrogen and total phosphorus loads were typically proportional to the size of the drainage basin. Total nitrogen loads increased each year from 1996 through 1998 in conjunction with increased concentrations and runoff. However, total phosphorus loads in the Skunk River Basin decreased in 1997 due to less runoff. Total phosphorus loads followed the same pattern as total nitrogen loads with increases in 1998. Total nitrogen and total phosphorus loads varied seasonally and the highest loads typically occurred in early spring and summer after fertilizer application and runoff. Loads were lowest in January and September when there was little runoff to transport nitrogen and phosphorus to the rivers and streams. Total nitrogen loads contributed to the Mississippi River from the Eastern Iowa Basins during 1996, 1997, and 1998 were 97,000, 120,000, and 230,000 metric tons respectively. Total phosphorus loads contributed to the Mississippi River from the Eastern Iowa Basins during 1996, 1997, and 1998 were 6,900, 4,600, and 8,800 metric tons, respectively. The highest nitrogen and phosphorus yields typically occurred in streams draining small watersheds that were dominated by a single land use and geology. Sampling sites located in drainage basins with higher row-crop percentage typically had higher nitrogen and phosphorus yields. Sites that were located in the Des Moines Lobe and the Southern Iowa Drift Plain typically had higher phosphorus yields probably due to more erodible soils and steeper slopes.

Iowa↗

Quality of water in alluvial aquifers in eastern Iowa

The goal of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) Program is to assess the status and trends in the quality of the Nation's surface and ground water, and to better understand the natural and human factors affecting water quality. The Eastern Iowa Basins study unit encompasses an area of about 50,500 square kilometers (19,500 square miles) in eastern Iowa and southern Minnesota and is one of 59 study units in the NAWQA program. Land-use studies are an important component of the NAWQA program, and are designed to assess the concentration and distribution of water-quality constituents in recently recharged ground water associated with the most significant land use and hydrogeologic settings within a study unit. The focus of the land-use study in the Eastern Iowa Basins study unit is agricultural and urban land uses and alluvial aquifers. Agriculture is the dominant land use in the study unit. Urban areas, although not extensive, represent important potential source areas of contaminants associated with residential, commercial, and industrial activities. Alluvial aquifers are present throughout much of the study unit, and constitute a major ground-water supply that is susceptible to contamination from land-use activities. Ground-water samples were collected from monitoring wells at 31 agricultural and 30 urban sites in the Eastern Iowa Basins study unit during June-August 1997 to evaluate the effects of land use and hydrogeology on the water quality of alluvial aquifers. Calcium, magnesium, and bicarbonate were the dominant ions in most samples and were likely derived from solution of carbonate minerals (calcite and dolomite) present in alluvial detrital deposits. Tritium-based ages indicate ground water was most likely recharged after the 1950's at all but one sampling site. Agricultural and urban land-use areas have remained relatively stable in the study area since the 1950's, therefore the effects of current land use should be reflected in ground water sampled during this study. Sodium and chloride concentrations were significantly higher in samples from urban areas, where roads are more numerous and road salts may be more frequently applied, than in agricultural areas. Nitrate was detected in 94 percent of samples from agricultural areas and 77 percent of samples from urban areas. Nitrate concentrations were significantly higher in agricultural areas than in urban areas and exceeded the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency maximum contaminant level for drinking water (10 milligrams per liter as N) in 39 percent of samples from agricultural areas. Nitrate concentrations in samples from urban areas did not exceed the maximum contaminant level. Greater usage of fertilizers in agricultural areas most likely contributes to higher nitrate concentrations in samples from those areas. Pesticides were detected in 84 percent of samples from agricultural areas and 70 percent from urban areas. Atrazine and metolachlor were the most frequently detected pesticides in samples from agricultural areas; atrazine and prometon were the most frequently detected pesticides in samples from urban areas. None of the pesticide concentrations exceeded U.S. Environmental Protection Agency maximum contaminant levels or lifetime health advisories for drinking water. Pesticide degradates were detected in 94 percent of samples from agricultural areas and 53 percent from urban areas. Metolachlor ethane sulfonic acid and deethylatrazine were the most frequently detected metabolites in samples from agricultural areas; metolachlor ethane sulfonic acid and alachlor ethane sulfonic acid were the most frequently detected degradates in samples from urban areas. Total degradate concentrations were significantly higher in samples from agricultural areas than in samples from urban areas. Total pesticide concentrations (parent compounds) tended to be higher in samples from agricultural areas; however, this difference was not statistically significant. Degradates constituted the major portion of the total residue concentration in the alluvial aquifer. Volatile organic compounds were detected in 40 percent of samples from urban areas and 10 percent from agricultural areas. Methyl tert-butyl ether was the most commonly detected volatile organic compound and was present in 23 percent of samples from urban areas. Elevated concentrations (greater than 30 micrograms per liter) of methyl tert-butyl ether and BTEX compounds (benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, and xylene) in two samples from urban areas suggest the possible presence of point-source gasoline leaks or spills. Factors other than land use may contribute to observed differences in water quality between and within agricultural and urban areas. Nitrate, atrazine, deethylatrazine, and deisopropylatrazine concentrations were significantly higher in shallow wells with sample intervals nearer the water table and in wells with thinner cumulative clay thickness above the sample intervals, suggesting that longer flow paths allow for greater residence time and increase opportunities for sorbtion, degradation, and dispersion which may contribute to decreases in nutrient and pesticide concentrations with depth. Nitrogen speciation was influenced by redox conditions. Nitrate concentrations were significantly higher in ground water with dissolved-oxygen concentrations in excess of 0.5 milligrams per liter. Ammonia concentrations were higher in ground water with dissolved-oxygen concentrations of 0.5 milligrams per liter or less, however, this relation was not statistically significant. The amount of available organic matter may limit denitrification rates. Elevated nitrate concentrations (greater than 2.0 mg/L) were significantly related to lower dissolved organic carbon concentrations in water samples from both agricultural and urban areas. A similar relation between nitrate concentrations (in water) and organic carbon concentrations (in aquifer material) also was observed but was not statistically significant.

Iowa↗

Dissolved-mineral inflow to Great Salt Lake and chemical characteristics of the salt lake brine. Part II: Technical report

During the 1960 and 1961 water years an annual load of about 2 million tons of dissolved minerals was contributed to the Great Salt Lake area by surficial sources. Almost 60 percent of this load was sodium and chloride. Of the six units contributing to the lake area, three - the Bear River, the Jordan River, and the unit comprising drains and sewage canals – contributed about three-fourths of the runoff and of the load. The water type of these tributaries ranged from bicarbonate in the headwaters to sulfate and chloride near the mouths; the dissolved-solids concentrations were higher in the downstream reaches than in the headwaters.

Utah↗

Proceedings of the ocean drilling program: New Jersey continental slope and rise

The Scientific Results volumes of the Proceedings of the Ocean Drilling Program contain specialty papers presenting the results of extensive research in various aspects of scientific ocean drilling. The authors of the papers published in this volume have enabled future investigators to gain ready access to the results of their research, and I acknowledge their contributions with thanks. Each paper submitted to a Scientific Results volume undergoes rigorous peer review by at least two specialists in the author's research field. A paper typically goes through at least one revision cycle before being accepted for publication. We seek to maintain a peer-review system comparable to those of the most highly regarded journals in the geological sciences. Each Scientific Results volume has an Editorial Review Board that is responsible for obtaining peer reviews of papers submitted to the volume. This board usually is made up of the two co-chief scientists for the cruise, the ODP staff scientist for the cruise, and one external specialist who is familiar with the geology of the area investigated. In addition, the volume has an ODP staff editor who assists with manuscripts that require English-language attention and who coordinates volume assembly. Scientific Results volumes may also contain short reports of useful data that are not ready for final interpretation. Papers of this type, which may be found together in a section in the back of the volume, are called Data Reports and include no interpretation of results. Data Report papers are read carefully by at least one specialist to make sure they are well organized, comprehensive, and discuss the techniques or procedures thoroughly. To acknowledge the contributions made by this volume's Editorial Review Board, the Board members are designated Editors of the volume and are so listed on the title page. Reviewers of manuscripts for this volume, whose efforts are so essential to the success of the publication, are listed in the front of the book, without attribution to a particular manuscript. On behalf of the Ocean Drilling Program, I extend sincere appreciation to members of the Editorial Review Boards and to the reviewers for giving their generous contribution of time and effort, which ensures that only papers of high scientific quality are published in the Proceedings .

Book↗

U.S. Geological research at Grand Canyon National Park: A century of collaboration

(Fairley) When historians describe the decades preceding designation of Grand Canyon National Park (GCNP), they typically focus attention on early scientific studies conducted by John Wesley Powell, Clarence Dutton, and Charles Walcott. All three of these pioneering scientists were employed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), a small Federal agency first established in 1879. Yet rarely do historians mention later contributions of USGS scientists to the subsequent development and interpretation of GCNP. This article attempts to fill this gap. When GCNP was officially designated on February 26, 1919, Grand Canyon was already a popular, internationally renowned tourist destination. Its reputation derived in no small measure from books and articles written by USGS geologists, which included some of the earliest illustrations and photographs of Grand Canyon. In addition to Powell, Dutton, and Walcott , other noteworthy USGS scientists who contributed to Grand Canyon’s early fame included Francois Matthes who, along with topographers John Stewart and Richard Evans, mapped the Canyon’s topography in painstaking detail during the first decade of the 20th century ; Levi Noble, who mapped the Precambrian geology in the Shinumo area in 1909 , and Nelson Darton, who produced the first popular guidebook about Grand Canyon’s geology for distribution by the Santa Fe Railroad . Thus, by the time Grand Canyon was designated as the Nation’s 15th national park, USGS scientists had laid a solid foundation of basic geological knowledge about this remarkable landscape upon which the National Park Service (NPS) could build. But what about the century that followed? In what respects did USGS personnel contribute to the park’s subsequent development and interpretation? The intent of this article is not to recount every scientific study undertaken by USGS scientists in Grand Canyon during the past century. Instead, this article attempts to document the various roles played by USGS professionals, working in collaboration with NPS personnel, to shape the future development and interpretation of the Park.

Arizona↗

Cloud water interception in Hawai‘i: Developing capacity to characterize the spatial patterns and effects on water and ecological processes responses in Hawai‘i

Cloud-water interception (CWI) is the process by which fog or cloud water droplets are captured and accumulate on the leaves and branches of plants, some of which drips to the ground. Prior studies in Hawai'i indicate that CWI is highly variable and can contribute substantially to total precipitation. In this study, we monitored CWI and other processes at five mountain field sites on the Islands of Oʻahu, Maui, and Hawaiʻi to explore how CWI (1) varies with different climate and vegetation characteristics, (2) affects plant water use and growth, and (3) contributes to water resources. Results show that annual CWI varied from 158 to 910 mm, accounting for 3-34% of total water input at individual sites. This large variation was caused by differences in the quantity of cloud water, wind speed, and vegetation structure between sites. We developed a model to predict CWI using both climatic and forest canopy characteristics. On average, the model underestimated annual CWI by 18%, but reproduced the site differences relatively well. Plant water use decreased during periods of fog events mainly because of associated higher humidity. This new CWI model can be used to assess impacts of climate and land cover change on CWI and provide valuable information for resource management in Hawai‘i, which was not previously possible. At one field site, we explored the impacts of fog water on hydrological and ecological processes. Fog effects on native plant growth were indirect, primarily buffering effects of solar radiation. Removal of grass allowed natural regeneration of seedlings but did not alter soil moisture values. A soil data-collection program was initiated to help evaluate the role CWI has in providing moisture for plants, reducing wildfire risk within the fog zone, and contributing to groundwater recharge to aquifers that supply drinking water and groundwater discharge to streams.

Hawaii↗

Human-cougar interactions: A literature review related to common management questions

Interactions between humans and cougars ( Puma concolor ) present unique challenges for wildlife managers; reducing occurrences that lead to conflict is a priority for state and provincial wildlife agencies throughout western North America, including Washington. With an increase in management emphasis of human-wildlife conflict resolution, a growing body of scientific literature related to cougar wildland-urban ecology and the factors that contribute to interactions between cougars and people has developed. Based on discussions with the Fish and Wildlife Commission, our 10-member Human-Cougar Interaction Science Review Team assessed both the analytical and ecological merits of current literature, focusing on data and methods, to summarize the current state of knowledge on human-cougar interactions and factors affecting these interactions. We did not use our review findings to provide management recommendations or evaluate/suggest policy alternatives, but we did highlight important information gaps, research needs, and proposed strategies for conducting scientific investigations to benefit managers and policy makers in the future. We used bibliographic lists, keyword searches in research databases, and new literature encountered as citations within papers we reviewed to identify 96 potential studies for review. We evaluated 41 studies that aligned with eight commonly asked questions regarding how various factors contribute to cougar proximity to, and interactions with people. Our review concluded that the roles of cougar removals (Question 1), cougar population size or trajectory (Question 2), the abundance or diversity of prey (Question 3), human population size, distribution, or recreation levels (Question 6), human attitudes (Question 7), and competition with other large carnivores (Question 8) in cougar interactions with people remain uncertain. We found the studies evaluating the efficacy of nonlethal deterrents (Question 4) provided some evidence that these methods reduce conflict, most notably that flashing lights can reduce interactions in specific situations. Our review of papers investigating the role of landscape characteristics (Question 5) revealed spatial ecology to be the most reliably studied and best understood facet of cougar wildland-urban ecology; study designs in these investigations were also the most rigorous. Most cougar use, and subsequent interactions with people, occur at the wildland-urban interface or in exurban and rural residential settings immediately adjacent because these habitats provide both abundant native prey (deer) and stalking cover, or they retain enough native landcover, connectivity, and prey to support cougar use, but with a human presence at a level that does not substantially deter cougars. We identified only a limited number of informative studies in our review, primarily because many studies did not collect data to specifically address relevant management questions after developing testable hypotheses. Much of the literature we reviewed was derived from ad hoc mining of pre-existing data that had been collected for other routine reasons, data were often not assessed for accuracy, and confounding factors were inadequately addressed. Consequently, many factors theorized to contribute to cougar interactions with people require more rigorous investigation. Because wildland-urban systems are complex, and interactions encompass both human and cougar behavior, we recommend the use of long-term studies that incorporate both ecological and anthropogenic factors within a control-treatment design with replicate study sites to address questions with direct management relevance.

Report↗

Biology: Integrating core to essential variables (Bio-ICE) task team report for marine mammals

Marine mammals are wide-ranging, relatively long-lived organisms that play a crucial role in maintaining healthy ocean ecosystems. Often referred to as ecosystem engineers and sentinel species in marine ecosystems, these charismatic megafauna feed at a variety of trophic levels, affecting food web dynamics and cycling of chemicals and nutrients in the water column as well as in benthic habitats, both nearshore and in the deep ocean. An understanding of their abundance and distribution is an essential starting point for evaluating their role in ocean ecosystems. Accordingly, marine mammals have been included among key variables to monitor in ocean observing systems, from core variables for the U.S. Integrated Ocean Observing System (IOOS) to an Essential Ocean Variable (EOV) for the Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS). They also contribute to several Essential Biodiversity Variables (EBVs) for the Group on Earth Observations Biodiversity Observation Network (GEO BON). Further, evaluation of the health of marine mammal populations will help deliver societal benefits by contributing to the UN Decade of Ocean Science for Sustainable Development; informing reporting activities such as the World Ocean Assessment; and supporting achievement of Sustainable Development Goal 14, the post-2020 framework for the Convention for Biological Diversity, and a new treaty for conservation and sustainable use of marine biodiversity beyond national jurisdiction. In the U.S., the National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) are required to produce stock assessments for marine mammals under the Marine Mammal Protection Act (MMPA, 16 U.S.C. §1371 et seq.). Stock assessment analyses require accurate, up to-date information on abundance and distribution to inform appropriate management and/or conservation measures. Despite the availability of information on abundance and distribution within the stock assessment reports, availability and accessibility of the underlying data to the broader ocean observing community and contribution to EOVs remain inconsistent.

Report↗

Stream corridor sources of suspended sediment and sediment-bound phosphorus from an urban tributary to the Great Lakes

Potential sources of suspended sediment and sediment-bound phosphorus (sedP) were studied in the Kinnickinnic River (51 square kilometers), a heavily urbanized tributary to Lake Michigan (90% urban land use) in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. The river is 60% concrete lined channels, with few unlined reaches. From September 2019 through August 2020, an integrated study of sediment budget and sediment fingerprinting was conducted to quantify upland and stream corridor sources of suspended sediment and sedP using Sediment Source Assessment Tool (SedSAT) methods with a suite of trace elements. Passive suspended sediment samplers were installed at three sites. Soft, fine-grained streambed sediment was collected at 10 rapid geomorphic assessment (RGA) sites. An inventory of bank erosion and soft-sediment deposition was done at each of the 18 RGA sites, which were selected to represent a range of stream sizes and geomorphic conditions. Sources of suspended sediment varied with streamflow; the primary source was from roadways in residential areas followed by eroding streambanks. Industrial/commercial areas contributed 1% of the suspended sediment at the streamgage during the study period, whereas green space contributed 18% of the suspended sediment at a mid-basin monitoring location downstream of an unlined reach. The dominant sources of streambed sediment, like suspended sediment, throughout the basin were eroding banks and residential areas, with green space and industrial/commercial area signatures present locally. In contrast with previous studies in agricultural and mixed-use basins, the urban Kinnickinnic River had limited storage of soft sediment, due to the hydrologically flashy system and concrete lined channels. However, eroding streambank sources contribute 50% of the streambed sediment, but only 9% of suspended sediment within this tributary to the Great Lakes.

Wisconsin↗

Using advanced population genomics to better understand the relationship between offshore and spawning habitat use for Atlantic Sturgeon

Atlantic Sturgeon ( Acipenser oxyrinchus oxyrinchus ) are a large-bodied anadromous fish that historically supported important fisheries along the east coast of the United States. Following years of overharvest and habitat degradation, populations experienced severe declines. In 2012, the National Marine Fisheries Service listed Atlantic Sturgeon under the Endangered Species Act (ESA; 61 FR 4722). Their listing named five Distinct Population Segments (DPSs), predicated on genetic groups composed of geographically proximate populations. Federal management of Atlantic Sturgeon presents challenges, as sturgeon from each of the five DPSs mix extensively in coastal and marine habitats yet take and recovery progress must be evaluated separately for each unit. Genetic assignment testing based on mitochondrial and microsatellite markers allows individuals to be assigned back to their natal river and DPS. However, this approach is not perfect and some individuals may be incorrectly assigned. Recent advances in genomics offer the potential of a higher resolution approach to genetic assignment testing, and thus may reduce uncertainty associated with assignment testing. In addition, genomics allows a greater number of markers to be examined from across a broader portion of the sturgeon genome, thus may provide an enhanced perspective of population structure for the species, and potentially allow other previously intractable questions to be addressed (Bernatchez et al. 2017, Supple and Shapiro 2018). We used next-generation sequencing to develop a draft genome for Atlantic Sturgeon and identify single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) that could be used to resolve the natal river and DPS of individual Atlantic Sturgeon. We identified 1,210 candidate SNPs within the nuclear genome as well as 49 SNPs within the mitochondrial genome. After filtering and review, we selected 161 nuclear SNPs and 39 mitochondrial SNPs for further testing and evaluation. We used genotyping-in-thousands by sequencing (GT-seq) to simultaneously sequence nuclear SNP loci, mitochondrial SNP loci, and the existing panel of twelve microsatellite loci. This effort required a pilot sequencing run on a single sturgeon sample to test marker amplification and refine primer strengths, followed by a series of sequencing runs to generate baseline data for 288 individuals representing nine populations of Atlantic Sturgeon in four DPSs. Using baseline data from the nine populations, we ran a series of genomic analyses to characterize diversity within and among populations, providing a benchmark for this species using the new SNP markers. Allelic richness was similar for all populations, although there was a general trend of more northern population containing greater levels of allelic richness. Interestingly, we observed linkage disequilibrium among many pairs of loci within many populations. This might be the result of physical linkage but could also suggest these populations are recovering from genetic bottlenecks and/or are effectively small, leading to specific haplotypes to be favored by chance. Pairwise differentiation among populations varied among the populations ( F ST range: 0.010-0.098) and was significantly correlated ( r = 0.771; P < 0.001) to pairwise F ST observed using microsatellite markers). Population clustering and ordination techniques using the new genomic data both support an overall population structure that is similar to the current DPS management units (which were developed primarily based on microsatellite genetic data). Overall, this suggests that existing microsatellite markers and the panel of SNP markers developed in this study provide similar information about the populations structure and ecology of Atlantic Sturgeon. Given the observed differences in allele frequencies among populations, our genomic baseline supports previous assertations that Atlantic Sturgeon show natal homing, despite mixing extensively in marine waters during non-breeding periods. Lower levels of differentiation between populations in the South Atlantic DPS suggest that populations in this region may have greater levels of gene flow relative to their more northerly conspecifics, which has also previously been suggested based on microsatellite data. The observed differentiation among populations provides the necessary foundation for determining the natal river and DPS of Atlantic Sturgeon using assignment testing. We tested the utility of our new genomic baseline for resolving the population and DPS of Atlantic Sturgeon. Our nuclear SNP markers showed utility for identifying the origin of unknown Atlantic Sturgeon samples, as 86.5% were assigned to the correct DPS and 66.3% were assigned to the correct natal river. However, since this study was funded the Conservation Genetics and Genomics Laboratory at Leetown Science Center has made significant improvements to their microsatellite genetic baseline, which now performs more effectively than our new genomic approach (the genetic baseline includes 12 populations and 5 DPSs, and correctly assigns 95.8% of individuals to DPS and 84.9% of individuals to their natal population using 12 microsatellite loci). We conducted an ad hoc exploration of how additional microsatellite or nuclear SNP loci may further improve the accuracy of assignment testing. We found that additional microsatellite markers are likely to result in greater improvements in assignment efficiency than additional nuclear SNPs. However, a much larger number of SNP loci (which if identified could be sequenced using other methods that are now available; e.g., the RAD-capture approach published by Ali et al. 2016) could produce assignment efficiencies that are greater than what is currently feasible using microsatellites. In the absence of further research and development of additional SNP markers for Atlantic Sturgeon (possibly using an approach other than GT-seq), the existing microsatellite loci are the most effective means available to determine the natal river and DPS of Atlantic Sturgeon encountered in offshore waters. Because our new genomic markers were less effective than the existing panel of 12 microsatellite markers, we chose to use the existing microsatellite markers to assign Atlantic Sturgeon captured in another BOEM-funded study (cooperative agreement M16AC00003; Monitoring endangered Atlantic Sturgeon and commercial finfish habitat use offshore New York) following consultation with our project officer. Using this approach, we genotyped and assigned 186 Atlantic Sturgeon captured in coastal waters off the Rockaway Peninsula, New York. The vast majority of these sturgeon were assigned to the New York Bight DPS (94.62%), and most appear to belong to the Hudson River population (87.10%) with smaller contributions from the Delaware River population (7.53%). Smaller contributions (2.15%) were observed from six other populations, including those from the James, York, Kennebec, Ogeechee, and Edisto rivers. Although most of the fish we assigned were assigned to the nearest spawning rivers (Hudson and Delaware), the contributions from distant rivers is consistent with the propensity of this species to move long distances and form mixed stock aggregations along the continental shelf. This finding indicates that spawning populations (and their corresponding DPS) from distant locations may potentially be impacted by offshore activities. In fact, activities in this region of the New York Bight could negatively impact Atlantic Sturgeon population from at least four different DPSs. Genetic or genomic assignment testing remains an essential tool to characterize potential impacts to Atlantic Sturgeon populations and should be applied more broadly to better characterize potential impacts of activities in other locations.

Atlantic Coast↗

Climate-smart agriculture for Ukraine: Winter wheat breeding for food security and climate adaptation

Since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in early 2020, people have experienced food insecurity challenges because of increased prices of staple food commodities and loss of income or livelihood. Globally, countries with limited capacity to adapt have struggled to recover from pandemic-related disruptions and are further challenged to address adverse effects of climate change on agricultural production (United Nations [UN], 2022). Ukraine, a key agricultural exporter of staple food commodities, has a vital role in contributing to global food security, in particular through its wheat exports to countries in the Middle East, North Africa, and Europe (Martyshev and others, 2023). However, Ukraine’s role as a stable source of global wheat has been disrupted by the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war—a conflict which began in February of 2022. Given the fragile state of global and local markets and food systems, and the increasing risk climate change poses to agricultural production globally, Ukraine has prioritized adopting efficient agricultural practices to contribute to stabilizing crop yields and to increase its capacity to export wheat and other staple crops. According to Ukraine’s Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food (MINAGRO), along with addressing climate change, a contributing driver for this prioritization is the desire to join the European Union (EU) and the need to meet the requirements for the EU’s Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) for acceptance as a union member state (Markiyan Dmytrasevych, a former deputy minister of MINAGRO, oral commun., 2023). As a result, MINAGRO is considering climate-smart agricultural practices to secure future crop yields and build resilience within its agricultural sector, especially as the war has impeded millions of tons of crops from reaching domestic and global markets. This report employs the climate-smart agriculture framework to provide Ukrainian agricultural policy- and decision makers and others in technical and development assistance roles with an overview of relevant climate, environmental, and agricultural policy and market factors, and projections on climate and environmental resources that could influence the implementation of climate-smart agricultural practices in Ukraine, and aid Ukraine in successfully joining the EU.

Report↗

Wind River subbasin restoration: Annual report of U.S. Geological Survey activities January 2023 through December 2023

We sampled juvenile wild Oncorhynchus mykiss (Steelhead Trout) in headwater streams of the Wind River, WA, to characterize population attributes and investigate life-history metrics, particularly migratory patterns, and early life-stage survival. We used passive integrated transponder (PIT) tagging and a series of instream PIT-tag interrogation systems (PTISs) to track juveniles and adults. The Wind River subbasin is considered a wild Steelhead refuge by Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife (WDFW). No hatchery Steelhead Trout have been released in the Wind River subbasin since 1997, and hatchery adults are estimated at less than one percent of spawners in most years. Over twenty years of Steelhead Trout status and trend monitoring and research in the subbasin is contributing to understanding of population response to numerous restoration actions in the subbasin, including removal of Hemlock Dam from Trout Creek in 2009, which had an inadequate adult ladder and contributed to increased water temperatures. Data from our study, and companion work by Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife, are contributing to the Columbia Basin Fish and Wildlife Program (2008) Research, Monitoring, and Evaluation (RM&E) Strategy of Fish Population Status Monitoring. Specifically, this work addresses the sub-strategies of 1) Assessing the Status and Trends of Diversity of Natural Origin Fish Populations and Uncertainties Research regarding differing life histories of a wild Steelhead Trout population, 2) Assessing the Status and Trend of Adult Natural Origin Fish Populations, and 3) Monitoring and Evaluating the Effectiveness of Tributary Habitat Actions Relative to Environmental, Physical, or Biological Performance Objectives. During summer and fall 2023, we PIT-tagged 1,294 Steelhead Trout parr (age-0 and age-1), in the Trout Creek and upper Wind River watersheds. Age-0 parr were at high abundance due to a strong spawning run in 2023 (estimate of 814 adults from September snorkel survey compared to 22-year median of 450; Charlie Cochran, WDFW Fish Biologist, personal commun., 2022), but age-1 parr abundance was low following poor spawner numbers in 2022 (estimate of 159 adults from September snorkel survey). An additional 189 age-2 or older parr were tagged to provide fish for estimating detection efficiencies at PTISs. Steelhead Trout parr were recaptured and detected through repeat headwater sampling, smolt trapping, instream PTISs and Columbia River PIT-tag detection. We maintained and upgraded six instream PTISs to detect PIT-tagged Steelhead Trout parr, smolts, and adults, providing data for population assessments, and life-cycle research. Detection data from PIT-tagged adult Steelhead Trout at PTISs allow assessment of adult escapement to tributary watersheds within the Wind River subbasin. Adult Steelhead Trout detection efficiency estimates at our primary PTIS in Trout Creek have been greater than 99 percent during seven of the past nine years and have exceeded 97% at our primary PTIS in the Wind River during eight of the past nine years. Adult escapement estimates to tributary watersheds are helping evaluate the efficacy of the 2009 removal of Hemlock Dam from rkm 2.0 of Trout Creek, where it had potential negative effects on Steelhead Trout populations due to hydrologic impairment, increased temperatures, and adult passage issues because of an inadequate fish ladder. Detections at the instream PTISs have shown trends of age-0 and age-1 Steelhead Trout parr emigration from natal areas during summer and fall, in addition to the expected movement of parr and smolts in spring. Our data suggest that often most fish from a cohort that migrate downstream will do so at age-1 for additional rearing downstream of their natal areas. It is unknown if this is ingrained behavior or a result of lack of habitat capacity. We have estimated that from 15 to 56% of parr tagged as age-0 fish in headwater areas make downstream migrations at age-1 for additional rearing. We have estimated that up to 27% of Steelhead Trout parr, tagged as age-1 fish, make downstream migrations during fall: this is especially pronounced in the upper Wind River portion of the watershed. These findings raise questions about preferred parr rearing habitat and whether migrations are density- or habitat-quality driven, and answers to such questions are part of the long-term goals of this study as active and passive habitat restoration actions occur. Repeat sampling at sites in the subbasin within and between years has enabled assessment of juvenile Steelhead Trout growth patterns. Growth rates (relative change in weight) of age-0 PIT-tagged parr during summer have been similar across the subbasin, though slightly lower in the Trout Creek watershed. Summer growth rates have been lower for age-1 parr in the Trout Creek watershed than the upper Wind River watershed. Yearly relative growth was similar across the subbasin for both age-0 and age-1 tagged parr. Non-native Salvelinus fontinalis (Brook Trout) are present in the subbasin, chiefly the Trout Creek watershed, and repeat sampling provides an index of their prevalence. Mean percent-of-catch that is Brook Trout, at four sample sites in Trout Creek, has declined from the period 1998 – 2003 to the period 2011 – 2024. Percent-of-catch and number of Brook Trout at the Trout Creek sites from 2011 through 2022, though variable, have generally declined. Evaluation and planning of habitat restoration efforts are critical to ensure efficient use of money and resources. Assessing Steelhead Trout life history variation in the Wind River subbasin informs research and tracking of many populations and habitat restoration and water allocation planning. Movement of Steelhead Trout parr from natal areas to other rearing areas raises questions regarding juvenile abundance, origin, and habitat use within watersheds. Improved PTISs and focused PIT-tagging of age-0 and age-1 Steelhead Trout parr allow investigation of such questions. Detailed viable salmonid population and life-history data, such as that provided by PIT-tagging and instream PTIS networks inform fisheries policy and management and enable assessment of long-term effects of habitat restoration actions such as the removal of Hemlock Dam on Trout Creek and proposed major instream habitat restoration in the upper Wind River.

Washington↗

Wind River subbasin restoration: Annual report of U.S. Geological Survey activities January 2024 through December 2024

We sampled juvenile wild Oncorhynchus mykiss (Steelhead Trout) in headwater streams of the Wind River, Washington, to characterize population attributes and investigate life-history metrics, particularly migratory patterns, and early life-stage survival. Additionally, this sampling provides an index of abundance of non-native Brook Trout Salvelinus confluentus . We used passive integrated transponder (PIT) tagging and a series of instream PIT-tag interrogation systems (PTISs) to track juveniles and adults. The Wind River subbasin is considered a wild Steelhead refuge by Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife (WDFW). No hatchery Steelhead Trout have been released in the Wind River subbasin since 1997, and hatchery adults are estimated at less than one percent of spawners in most years. Over 25 years of Steelhead Trout status and trend monitoring and research in the subbasin is contributing to understanding of population response to numerous restoration actions in the subbasin, including removal of Hemlock Dam from Trout Creek in 2009, which had an inadequate adult ladder and contributed to increased water temperatures, to near lethal levels for salmonids. Data from our study, and companion work by WDFW, are contributing to the Columbia Basin Fish and Wildlife Program (2009) Research, Monitoring, and Evaluation (RM&E) Strategy of Fish Population Status Monitoring. Specifically, this work addresses the sub-strategies of 1) Assessing the Status and Trends of Diversity of Natural Origin Fish Populations and Uncertainties Research regarding differing life histories of a wild Steelhead Trout population, 2) Assessing the Status and Trend of Adult Natural Origin Fish Populations, and 3) Monitoring and Evaluating the Effectiveness of Tributary Habitat Actions Relative to Environmental, Physical, or Biological Performance Objectives. During summer and fall 2024, we PIT-tagged 2,075 Steelhead Trout parr (age-0 and age-1), in the Trout Creek and upper Wind River watersheds. Age-0 and age-1 parr were at high abundance due to strong spawner numbers in 2023 and 2024 (Estimate of 932 in 2023; and a moderate number of spawners in 2024 though an estimate is not available at this time; 24-year median = 619; Charlie Cochran, WDFW Fish Biologist, personal commun., 2025). An additional 100 parr (age-0 and age-2 or older) were tagged to provide fish for estimating detection efficiencies at PTISs. Steelhead Trout parr were recaptured and detected through repeat headwater sampling, smolt trapping, instream PTISs and Columbia River mainstem PIT-tag detection. We maintained and upgraded six instream PTISs to detect PIT-tagged Steelhead Trout parr, smolts, and adults, providing data for population assessments, and life-cycle research. Detection data from PIT-tagged adult Steelhead Trout at our four primary PTISs allow assessment of adult escapement to tributary watersheds within the Wind River subbasin. Most adult Steelhead detected were tagged by WDFW at an adult trap in the lower Wind River and some as smolts at screw traps. Adult Steelhead Trout detection efficiency estimates at our primary PTIS in Trout Creek have been greater than 99 percent during eight of the past ten years and have exceeded 97% at our primary PTIS in the Wind River during nine of the past ten years. Adult escapement estimates to tributary watersheds are helping evaluate the efficacy of the 2009 removal of Hemlock Dam from rkm 2.0 of Trout Creek. Detections at the instream PTISs have shown trends of age-0 and age-1 Steelhead Trout parr emigration from natal areas during summer and fall, in addition to the expected movement of parr and smolts in spring. Our data suggest that most fish from a cohort that migrate downstream will do so at age-1 for additional rearing in the subbasin. We have estimated that from 15% to 56% of parr tagged as age-0 fish in headwater areas make downstream migrations at age-1 for additional rearing (median = 29%). We have estimated that from 1% to 27% of Steelhead Trout parr, tagged as age-1 fish, make downstream migrations during fall (median = 3.5%): this is especially pronounced in the upper Wind River portion of the watershed (median 10%). These findings raise questions about parr rearing habitat and whether migrations are density- or habitat-quality driven, and answers to such questions are long-term goals of this study as active and passive habitat restoration occurs. Repeat sampling at sites in the subbasin within and between years has enabled assessment of juvenile Steelhead Trout growth patterns. Growth rates (relative change in weight) of age-0 PIT-tagged parr during summer have been similar across the subbasin, though slightly lower in the Trout Creek watershed (Trout Creek sites, 0.57 - 1.25%/day, Wind River sites = 0.94 – 2.48%/day). Summer growth rates have been lower for age-1 parr in the Trout Creek watershed than the upper Wind River watershed (Trout Creek sites, = 0.03 - 0.14%/day, Wind River sites = 0.05 – 0.19%/day). Yearly relative growth was similar across the subbasin for both age-0 and age-1 tagged parr. During 2024 range of mean daily relative change in weight from the previous year for age-0 tagged fish was: Trout Creek sites = 0.96 – 1.41%/day, Wind River sites = 0.80 – 1.30 %/day; and for age1 tagged fish was: Trout Creek sites = 0.37 - 0.50 %/day, Wind River sites = no age-1 tagged recaptures. Non-native Brook Trout are present in the subbasin, chiefly the Trout Creek watershed. Mean percent-of-catch that is Brook Trout, at four sample sites in Trout Creek, has declined from the period 1998 – 2003 to the period 2011 – 2024 (range of decrease = 19 - 82%). Percent-of-catch (of 64 samples, 52 < 10%; 3 > 20%) and number of Brook Trout at the Trout Creek sites from 2011 through 2024, though variable, have generally declined. Habitat restoration evaluation efforts are critical to ensure efficient use of money and resources but require long-term monitoring of population metrics. Detailed viable salmonid population and life-history data, such as that provided by PIT-tagging and instream PTIS networks inform fisheries policy and management and enable assessment of long-term effects of habitat restoration actions such as the removal of Hemlock Dam on Trout Creek and proposed major instream habitat restoration in the upper Wind River.

Washington↗

Geochemistry of southern Pagan Island lavas, Mariana arc: The role of subduction zone processes

New major and trace element abundances, and Pb, Sr, and Nd isotopic ratios of Quaternary lavas from two adjacent volcanoes (South Pagan and the Central Volcanic Region, or CVR) located on Pagan Island allow us to investigate the mantle source (i.e., slab components) and melting dynamics within the Mariana intra-oceanic arc. Geologic mapping reveals a pre-caldera (780-9.4ka) and post-caldera (<9.4ka) eruptive stage for South Pagan, whereas the eruptive history of the older CVR is poorly constrained. Crystal fractionation and magma mixing were important crustal processes for lavas from both volcanoes. Geochemical and isotopic variations indicate that South Pagan and CVR lavas, and lavas from the northern volcano on the island, Mt. Pagan, originated from compositionally distinct parental magmas due to variations in slab contributions (sediment and aqueous fluid) to the mantle wedge and the extent of mantle partial melting. A mixing model based on Pb and Nd isotopic ratios suggests that the average amount of sediment in the source of CVR (~2.1%) and South Pagan (~1.8%) lavas is slightly higher than Mt. Pagan (~1.4%) lavas. These estimates span the range of sediment-poor Guguan (~1.3%) and sediment-rich Agrigan (~2.0%) lavas for the Mariana arc. Melt modeling demonstrates that the saucer-shaped normalized rare earth element (REE) patterns observed in Pagan lavas can arise from partial melting of a mixed source of depleted mantle and enriched sediment, and do not require amphibole interaction or fractionation to depress the middle REE abundances of the lavas. The modeled degree of mantle partial melting for Agrigan (2-5%), Pagan (3-7%), and Guguan (9-15%) lavas correlates with indicators of fluid addition (e.g., Ba/Th). This relationship suggests that the fluid flux to the mantle wedge is the dominant control on the extent of partial melting beneath Mariana arc volcanoes. A decrease in the amount of fluid addition (lower Ba/Th) and extent of melting (higher Sm/Yb), and an increase in the sediment contribution (higher Th/Nb, La/Sm, and Pb isotopic ratios) from Mt. Pagan to South Pagan could reflect systematic cross-arc or irregular along-arc melting variations. These observations indicate that the length scale of compositional heterogeneity in the mantle wedge beneath Mariana arc volcanoes is small (~10km).

Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology↗

Magma mixing and the generation of isotopically juvenile silicic magma at Yellowstone caldera inferred from coupling 238 U– 230 Th ages with trace elements and Hf and O isotopes in zircon and Pb isotopes in sanidine

The nature of compositional heterogeneity within large silicic magma bodies has important implications for how silicic reservoirs are assembled and evolve through time. We examine compositional heterogeneity in the youngest (~170 to 70 ka) post-caldera volcanism at Yellowstone caldera, the Central Plateau Member (CPM) rhyolites, as a case study. We compare 238 U– 230 Th age, trace-element, and Hf isotopic data from zircons, and major-element, Ba, and Pb isotopic data from sanidines hosted in two CPM rhyolites (Hayden Valley and Solfatara Plateau flows) and one extracaldera rhyolite (Gibbon River flow), all of which erupted near the caldera margin ca. 100 ka. The Hayden Valley flow hosts two zircon populations and one sanidine population that are consistent with residence in the CPM reservoir. The Gibbon River flow hosts one zircon population that is compositionally distinct from Hayden Valley flow zircons. The Solfatara Plateau flow contains multiple sanidine populations and all three zircon populations found in the Hayden Valley and Gibbon River flows, demonstrating that the Solfatara Plateau flow formed by mixing extracaldera magma with the margin of the CPM reservoir. This process highlights the dynamic nature of magmatic interactions at the margins of large silicic reservoirs. More generally, Hf isotopic data from the CPM zircons provide the first direct evidence for isotopically juvenile magmas contributing mass to the youngest post-caldera magmatic system and demonstrate that the sources contributing magma to the CPM reservoir were heterogeneous in 176 Hf/ 177 Hf at ca. 100 ka. Thus, the limited compositional variability of CPM glasses reflects homogenization occurring within the CPM reservoir, not a homogeneous source.

Wyoming↗

Prediction of episodic acidification in North-eastern USA: An empirical/mechanistic approach

Observations from the US Environmental Protection Agency's Episodic Response Project (ERP) in the North-eastern United States are used to develop an empirical/mechanistic scheme for prediction of the minimum values of acid neutralizing capacity (ANC) during episodes. An acidification episode is defined as a hydrological event during which ANC decreases. The pre-episode ANC is used to index the antecedent condition, and the stream flow increase reflects how much the relative contributions of sources of waters change during the episode. As much as 92% of the total variation in the minimum ANC in individual catchments can be explained (with levels of explanation >70% for nine of the 13 streams) by a multiple linear regression model that includes pre-episode ANC and change in discharge as independent variable. The predictive scheme is demonstrated to be regionally robust, with the regional variance explained ranging from 77 to 83%. The scheme is not successful for each ERP stream, and reasons are suggested for the individual failures. The potential for applying the predictive scheme to other watersheds is demonstrated by testing the model with data from the Panola Mountain Research Watershed in the South-eastern United States, where the variance explained by the model was 74%. The model can also be utilized to assess 'chemically new' and 'chemically old' water sources during acidification episodes.Observations from the US Environmental Protection Agency's Episodic Response Project (ERP) in the Northeastern United States are used to develop an empirical/mechanistic scheme for prediction of the minimum values of acid neutralizing capacity (ANC) during episodes. An acidification episode is defined as a hydrological event during which ANC decreases. The pre-episode ANC is used to index the antecedent condition, and the stream flow increase reflects how much the relative contributions of sources of waters change during the episode. As much as 92% of the total variation in the minimum ANC in individual catchments can be explained (with levels of explanation >70% for nine of the 13 streams) by a multiple linear regression model that includes pre-episode ANC and change in discharge as independent variables. The predictive scheme is demonstrated to be regionally robust, with the regional variance explained ranging from 77 to 83%. The scheme is not successful for each ERP stream, and reasons are suggested for the individual failures. The potential for applying the predictive scheme to other watersheds is demonstrated by testing the model with data from the Panola Mountain Research Watershed in the South-eastern United States, where the variance explained by the model was 74%. The model can also be utilized to assess `chemically new' and `chemically old' water sources during acidification episodes.

Hydrological Processes↗