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At least 703 records · Page 39Linked to original sources

USGS2020

Landslide monitoring and runout hazard assessment by integrating multi-source remote sensing and numerical models: An application to the Gold Basin landslide complex, northern Washington

The landslide complex at Gold Basin, Washington, has been drawing considerable attention after a catastrophic runout of the nearby landslide at Oso, Washington, in 2014. To evaluate potential threats of the Gold Basin landslide to the campground down the slope, remote sensing and numerical modeling were integrated to monitor recent landslide activity and simulate hypothetical runout scenarios. Bare-earth LiDAR DEM (digital elevation model) differencing, InSAR (Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar), and offset tracking of SAR images reveal that localized collapses at the headscarps have been the primary type of landslide activity at Gold Basin from 2005 to 2019, and currently no signs indicative of movement of a large centralized block or a deep-seated main body were detected. The maximum horizontal deformation rate is 5 m/year occurring primarily from headscarp recession of the middle lobe, and the annual landsliding volume of the whole landslide complex averages 1.03 × 10 5 m 3 . From three-dimensional limit equilibrium analysis of generalized terrace structures, the maximum landslide volume is estimated as 2.0 × 10 6 m 3 . Simulations of hypothetical runout scenarios were carried out using the depth-averaged two-phase model D-claw with above-obtained landslide geometry constraints. The simulation results demonstrate that debris flows with volume less than 10 5 m 3 only pose limited threats to the campground, while volumes over 10 6 m 3 could cause severe damages. Consequently, the estimated maximum landslide volume of 2.0 × 10 6 m 3 suggests a potential risk to the campground nearby. Adaption of our methodology could prove useful for evaluating other similar landslides globally for hazards prevention and mitigation.

Washington↗

USGS2016

Quantification of human-associated fecal indicators reveal sewage from urban watersheds as a source of pollution to Lake Michigan

Sewage contamination of urban waterways from sewer overflows and failing infrastructure is a major environmental and public health concern. Fecal coliforms (FC) are commonly employed as fecal indicator bacteria, but do not distinguish between human and non-human sources of fecal contamination. Human Bacteroides and human Lachnospiraceae , two genetic markers for human-associated indicator bacteria, were used to identify sewage signals in two urban rivers and the estuary that drains to Lake Michigan. Grab samples were collected from the rivers throughout 2012 and 2013 and hourly samples were collected in the estuary across the hydrograph during summer 2013. Human Bacteroides and human Lachnospiraceae were highly correlated with each other in river samples (Pearson’s r = 0.86), with average concentrations at most sites elevated during wet weather. These human indicators were found during baseflow, indicating that sewage contamination is chronic in these waterways. FC are used for determining total maximum daily loads (TMDLs) in management plans; however, FC concentrations alone failed to prioritize river reaches with potential health risks. While 84% of samples with >1000 CFU/100 ml FC had sewage contamination, 52% of samples with moderate (200–1000 CFU/100 ml) and 46% of samples with low (<200 CFU/100 ml) FC levels also had evidence of human sewage. Load calculations in the in the Milwaukee estuary revealed storm-driven sewage contamination varied greatly among events and was highest during an event with a short duration of intense rain. This work demonstrates urban areas have unrecognized sewage inputs that may not be adequately prioritized for remediation by the TMDL process. Further analysis using these approaches could determine relationships between land use, storm characteristics, and other factors that drive sewage contamination in urban waterways.

Wisconsin↗

USGS2006

Genetic analyses of captive Alala (Corvus hawaiiensis) using AFLP analyses

Population level studies of genetic diversity can provide information about population structure, individual genetic distinctiveness and former population size. They are especially important for rare and threatened species like the Alala, where they can be used to assess extinction risks and evolutionary potential. In an ideal situation multiple methods should be used to detect variation, and these methods should be comparable across studies. In this report, we discuss AFLP (Amplified Fragment Length Polymorphism) as a genetic approach for detecting variation in the Alala , describe our findings, and discuss these in relation to mtDNA and microsatellite data reported elsewhere in this same population. AFLP is a technique for DNA fingerprinting that has wide applications. Because little or no prior knowledge of the particular species is required to carry out this method of analysis, AFLP can be used universally across varied taxonomic groups. Within individuals, estimates of diversity or heterozygosity across genomes may be complex because levels of diversity differ between and among genes. One of the more traditional methods of estimating diversity employs the use of codominant markers such as microsatellites. Codominant markers detect each allele at a locus independently. Hence, one can readily distinguish heterozygotes from homozygotes, directly assess allele frequencies and calculate other population level statistics. Dominant markers (for example, AFLP) are scored as either present or absent (null) so heterozygotes cannot be directly distinguished from homozygotes. However, the presence or absence data can be converted to expected heterozygosity estimates which are comparable to those determined by codominant markers. High allelic diversity and heterozygosity inherent in microsatellites make them excellent tools for studies of wild populations and they have been used extensively. One limitation to the use of microsatellites is that heterozygosity estimates are affected by the mutation rate at microsatellite loci, thus introducing a bias. Also, the number of loci that can be studied is frequently limited to fewer than 10. This theoretically represents a maximum of one marker for each of 10 chromosomes. Dominant markers like AFLP allow a larger fraction of the genome to be screened. Large numbers of loci can be screened by AFLP to resolve very small individual differences that can be used for identification of individuals, estimates of pairwise relatedness and, in some cases, for parentage analyses. Since AFLP is a dominant marker (can not distinguish between +/+ homozygote versus +/- heterozygote), it has limitations for parentage analyses. Only when both parents are homozygous for the absence of alleles (-/-) and offspring show a presence (+/+ or +/-) can the parents be excluded. In this case, microsatellites become preferable as they have the potential to exclude individual parents when the other parent is unknown. Another limitation of AFLP is that the loci are generally less polymorphic (only two alleles/locus) than microsatellite loci (often >10 alleles/locus). While generally fewer than 10 highly polymorphic microsatellite loci are enough to exclude and assign parentage, it might require up to 100 or more AFLP loci. While there are pros and cons to different methodologies, the total number of loci evaluated by AFLP generally offsets the limitations imposed due to the dominant nature of this approach and end results between methods are generally comparable. Overall objectives of this study were to evaluate the level of genetic diversity in the captive population of Alala, to compare genetic data with currently available pedigree information, and to determine the extent of relatedness of mating pairs and among founding individuals.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2013

A landscape-based assessment of climate change vulnerability for all native Hawaiian plants

In Hawaiʽi and elsewhere, research efforts have focused on two main approaches to determine the potential impacts of climate change on individual species: estimating species vulnerabilities and projecting responses of species to expected changes. We integrated these approaches by defining vulnerability as the inability of species to exhibit any of the responses necessary for persistence under climate change (i.e., tolerate projected changes, endure in microrefugia, or migrate to new climate-compatible areas, but excluding evolutionary adaptation). To operationalize this response-based definition of species vulnerability within a landscape-based analysis, we used current and future climate envelopes for each species to define zones across the landscape: the toleration zone; the microrefugia zone; and the migration zone. Using these response zones we calculated a diverse set of factors related to habitat area, quality, and distribution for each species, including the amount of habitat protection and fragmentation and areas projected to be lost to sea-level rise. We then calculated the probabilities of each species exhibiting these responses using a Bayesian network model and determined the overall climate change vulnerability of each species by using a vulnerability index. As a first iteration of a response-based species vulnerability assessment (VA), our landscape-based analysis effectively integrates species-distribution models into a Bayesian network-based VA that can be updated with improved models and data for more refined analyses in the future. Our results show that the species most vulnerable to climate change also tend to be species of conservation concern due to non-climatic threats (e.g., competition and predation from invasive species, land-use change). Also, many of Hawaiʽi’s taxa that are most vulnerable to climate change share characteristics with species that in the past were found to be at risk of extinction due to non-climatic threats (e.g., archipelago endemism, single-island endemism). Of particular concern are the numerous species that have no compatible-climate areas remaining by the year 2100. Species primarily associated with dry forests have higher vulnerability scores than species from any other habitat type. When examined at taxonomic levels above species, low vulnerabilities are concentrated in families and genera of generalists (e.g., ferns or sedges) and typically associated with mid-elevation wet habitats. Our results replicate findings from other regions that link higher species vulnerability with decreasing range size. This species VA is possibly the largest in scope ever conducted in the United States with over 1000 species considered, 319 of which are listed as endangered or threatened under the U.S. Endangered Species Act, filling a critical knowledge gap for resource managers in the region. The information in this assessment can help prioritize species for special conservation actions, guide the management of conservation areas, inform the selection of research and monitoring priorities, and support adaptive management planning and implementation.

Hawai'i↗

USGS2015

Presence of amphibian chytrid fungus (Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis) in rainwater suggests aerial dispersal is possible

Abstract Global spread of the pathogenic amphibian chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) may involve dispersal mechanisms not previously explored. Weather systems accompanied by strong wind and rainfall have been known to assist the dispersal of microbes pathogenic to plants and animals, and we considered a similar phenomenon might occur with Bd. We investigated this concept by sampling rainwater from 20 precipitation events for the presence of Bd in Cusuco National Park, Honduras: a site where high Bd prevalence was previously detected in stream-associated amphibians. Quantitative PCR analysis confirmed the presence of Bd in rainwater in one (5 %) of the weather events sampled, although viability cannot be ascertained from molecular presence alone. The source of the Bd and distance that the contaminated rainwater traveled could not be determined; however, this collection site was located approximately 600 m from the nearest observed perennial river by straight-line aerial distance. Although our results suggest atmospheric Bd dispersal is uncommon and unpredictable, even occasional short-distance aerial transport could considerably expand the taxonomic diversity of amphibians vulnerable to exposure and at risk of decline, including terrestrial and arboreal species that are not associated with permanent water bodies.

Aerobiologia↗

USGS2023

Assessment of resource potential from mine tailings using geostatistical modeling for compositions: A methodology and application to Katherine Mine site, Arizona, USA

The mining industry, in most cases, targets a specific valuable commodity that is present in small quantities within large volumes of extracted material. After milling and processing, most of the extracted material and the effluents are stored as waste (tailings) in impoundments, such as dams or waste dumps, or are backfilled into underground mines. In time, tailing materials may become an issue of environmental and health concern due to the hazardous elements, ions, and oxides contained within the waste material. In addition, handling and storage of such waste in dams may pose the risk of dam failure with catastrophic consequences to nature and nearby communities. On the other hand, tailings may offer potential as secondary sources of critical elements (CEs), including rare earth elements (REEs), which may have been overlooked during primary production and processing. Therefore, treating mine tailings as a resource has economic and environmental benefits by reducing the waste from new and historical mine sites through remining. One of the critical steps for taking advantage of these benefits is to spatially quantify the resources and the pollutants, which require the application of adequate data analysis and modeling methods, often to compositional geochemical data. Utilizing adequate methods is especially important for correctly quantifying resource potential, as the quantities will often be at low concentrations. This work presents quantification of resource potential (Au, Ag, Cu, Zn, Pb) and elements of environmental concern (Hg and As) from the tailings of a historic mine site, Katherine Mine, AZ, USA. Data reported by the U.S. Bureau of Mines (USBM) after extensive field campaigns in the 1990s, including sampling from tailing impoundment and surrounding areas for geochemical characterization and geophysical surveys, were used. First, compositional data (CoDa) analysis was employed to explore associations of sampling locations, geochemical parts, and the clustering of samples. Next, sequential Gaussian simulation (SGSIM) was applied to samples that showed a genetic link to tailing material after isometric log-ratio transformation (ilr) and mix/max autocorrelation factor (MAF) transformation for spatial modeling and uncertainty evaluation. Geostatistical results revealed spatial variability of concentrations within the tailing area. Uncertainty evaluation based on realizations indicated that Cu (14.27–20.01 t), Zn (44.23–76.23 t), and Pb (22.56–38.28 t) are the most abundant elements within a 5 %–95 % interval, followed by Ag and Au (~5.3 and 0.18 t, at 50th percentile), respectively. Of the elements of health concern, As was found to be ~4.8 t (50th percentile) in the tailing area. The work also showed that ~0.51 t As, 0.005 t Hg, 0.020 t of Au, and 0.62 t of Ag were carried to Lake Mohave by an ephemeral stream called Katherine Wash, which transects the tailings.

Arizona↗

USGS2006

Response to comment on “Persistence of pharmaceutical compounds and other organic wastewater contaminants in a conventional drinking-water-treatment plant”

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the Centers for Disease Control thank Dr. Till for her comments concerning our research ( Till, 2005 ) and welcome the opportunity to respond. The primary objective of our study was to evaluate the potential for organic wastewater-related contaminants (OWCs), including pharmaceuticals, to survive a conventional drinking-water-treatment process and persist in potable-water supplies ( Stackelberg et al., 2004 ). Our study was supported by two USGS laboratories: the National Water Quality Laboratory (NWQL), which provided the HPLC/ESI-MS and CLLE GC/MS data and the Ocala Water Quality and Research Laboratory (OWQRL), which provided the LC/MS data ( Stackelberg et al., 2004 ). Although discussed as distinct techniques by Dr. Till and indicated by differing acronyms to distinguish the laboratories producing the data, as described in our paper, the two LC/MS methods are very similar; they consist of a solid-phase extraction method with analysis of the extract produced using high-performance liquid chromatography coupled to an electrospray ionization mass spectrometer operated in the positive mode. The NWQL and OWQRL report ‘trace’ and ‘ultratrace’ determinations of analytes that provide significant benefit for describing the presence and fate of low-level contaminants. For mass spectral methods, an analyte is qualitatively identified by its retention time on the chromatographic column as well as the presence of two or more confirming ions with area ratios that match that of the reference standard compounds. Because of a recognized increased risk of false positives, these qualitative identification criteria are used in conjunction with abundant quality-control samples (detailed below) to confirm detection prior to making an estimate of the concentration. These qualitative identification criteria must be met before a compound is considered present (or detected) in a sample ( Oblinger Childress et al., 1999 ). When a compound has been qualitatively identified in an environmental sample (whether above or below its reporting level [RL]), it is assessed in context with associated field and laboratory blanks, field and laboratory replicates, and other data, such as appropriate laboratory reagent spikes. An environmental concentration is calculated only after determining that field and laboratory procedures did not contaminate the samples. The concentrations are then calculated from 5- to 8-point calibration curves using internal standard quantitation. Our lowest calibration standard is intentionally much lower than the RL, typically 10 times lower. The most abundant molecular or fragment ion is used for quantitation, and, for the two LC/MS methods, at least one, and where possible two, qualifier ions are used for confirmation. For the GC/MS method, with its greater degree of fragmentation, one quantitation and two qualifier ions are used. When any of the abovementioned qualitative identification criteria are not met, the analyte is considered not present and is reported as “less than” the RL.

Science of the Total Environment↗

USGS2007

Age and trophic position dominate bioaccumulation of mercury and organochlorines in the food web of Lake Washington

Understanding the mechanisms of bioaccumulation in food webs is critical to predicting which food webs are at risk for higher rates of bioaccumulation that endanger the health of upper-trophic predators, including humans. Mercury and organochlorines were measured concurrently with stable isotopes of nitrogen and carbon in key fishes and invertebrates of Lake Washington to explore important pathways of bioaccumulation in this food web. Across the food web, age and trophic position together were highly significant predictors of bioaccumulation. Trophic position was more important than age for predicting accumulation of mercury, ???DDT, and ???-chlordane, whereas age was more important than trophic position for predicting ???PCB. Excluding age from the analysis inflated the apparent importance of trophic position to bioaccumulation for all contaminants. Benthic and pelagic habitats had similar potential to bioaccumulate contaminants, although higher ???-chlordane concentrations in organisms were weakly associated with more benthic carbon signals. In individual fish species, contaminant concentrations increased with age, size, and trophic position (??15N), whereas relationships with carbon source (??13C) were not consistent. Lipid concentrations were correlated with contaminant concentrations in some but not all fishes, suggesting that lipids were not involved mechanistically in bioaccumulation. Contaminant concentrations in biota did not vary among littoral sites. Collectively, these results suggest that age may be an important determinant of bioaccumulation in many food webs and could help explain a significant amount of the variability in apparent biomagnification rates among food webs. As such, effort should be made when possible to collect information on organism age in addition to stable isotopes when assessing food webs for rates of biomagnification. ?? 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Science of the Total Environment↗

USGS2016

High resolution mapping of development in the wildland-urban interface using object based image extraction

The wildland-urban interface (WUI), the area where human development encroaches on undeveloped land, is expanding throughout the western United States resulting in increased wildfire risk to homes and communities. Although census based mapping efforts have provided insights into the pattern of development and expansion of the WUI at regional and national scales, these approaches do not provide sufficient detail for fine-scale fire and emergency management planning, which requires maps of individual building locations. Although fine-scale maps of the WUI have been developed, they are often limited in their spatial extent, have unknown accuracies and biases, and are costly to update over time. In this paper we assess a semi-automated Object Based Image Analysis (OBIA) approach that utilizes 4-band multispectral National Aerial Image Program (NAIP) imagery for the detection of individual buildings within the WUI. We evaluate this approach by comparing the accuracy and overall quality of extracted buildings to a building footprint control dataset. In addition, we assessed the effects of buffer distance, topographic conditions, and building characteristics on the accuracy and quality of building extraction. The overall accuracy and quality of our approach was positively related to buffer distance, with accuracies ranging from 50 to 95% for buffer distances from 0 to 100 m. Our results also indicate that building detection was sensitive to building size, with smaller outbuildings (footprints less than 75 m 2 ) having detection rates below 80% and larger residential buildings having detection rates above 90%. These findings demonstrate that this approach can successfully identify buildings in the WUI in diverse landscapes while achieving high accuracies at buffer distances appropriate for most fire management applications while overcoming cost and time constraints associated with traditional approaches. This study is unique in that it evaluates the ability of an OBIA approach to extract highly detailed data on building locations in a WUI setting.

Colorado↗

USGS2014

Local extinction and unintentional rewilding of bighorn sheep ( Ovis canadensis ) on a desert island

Bighorn sheep ( Ovis canadensis ) were not known to live on Tiburón Island, the largest island in the Gulf of California and Mexico, prior to the surprisingly successful introduction of 20 individuals as a conservation measure in 1975. Today, a stable island population of ~500 sheep supports limited big game hunting and restocking of depleted areas on the Mexican mainland. We discovered fossil dung morphologically similar to that of bighorn sheep in a dung mat deposit from Mojet Cave, in the mountains of Tiburón Island. To determine the origin of this cave deposit we compared pellet shape to fecal pellets of other large mammals, and extracted DNA to sequence mitochondrial DNA fragments at the 12S ribosomal RNA and control regions. The fossil dung was 14 C-dated to 1476–1632 calendar years before present and was confirmed as bighorn sheep by morphological and ancient DNA (aDNA) analysis. 12S sequences closely or exactly matched known bighorn sheep sequences; control region sequences exactly matched a haplotype described in desert bighorn sheep populations in southwest Arizona and southern California and showed subtle differentiation from the extant Tiburón population. Native desert bighorn sheep previously colonized this land-bridge island, most likely during the Pleistocene, when lower sea levels connected Tiburón to the mainland. They were extirpated sometime in the last ~1500 years, probably due to inherent dynamics of isolated populations, prolonged drought, and (or) human overkill. The reintroduced population is vulnerable to similar extinction risks. The discovery presented here refutes conventional wisdom that bighorn sheep are not native to Tiburón Island, and establishes its recent introduction as an example of unintentional rewilding, defined here as the introduction of a species without knowledge that it was once native and has since gone locally extinct.

Gulf Of California;Tiburï¿½n Island↗

USGS2026

Field evaluation of the Automated Barge Clearing Deterrent (ABCD): Hydrodynamic, navigation, and fish response effects

The escape and subsequent spread of invasive carp (notably, bighead carp [ Hypophthalmichthys nobilis ] and silver carp [ H. molitrix ]) from aquaculture ponds and sewage lagoons into the Mississippi and Illinois Rivers poses a significant risk to further spread of these fish into the Great Lakes. Prior research demonstrated that commercial tows can transport juvenile invasive carp through locks and other barriers to fish migration. A recent physical model study recommended a linear array of bubble diffusers, the Automated Barge Clearing Deterrent (ABCD), for further evaluation in mitigating the transport of small fish in commercial tows. The present field study evaluated the ABCD for navigation safety and barge junction flushing capacity. An instrumented commercial tow executed 119 lock approaches with the ABCD both operating and idle. Pilot interviews and tow trajectory analysis indicated no significant navigation safety issues. The measured velocity data, fish recapture data, and a simple fish displacement model indicated that the ABCD produced sufficient flow to expel all passive objects and many small juvenile invasive carp. However, the ABCD is less likely to expel large juvenile invasive carp due to their stronger swimming ability. The ABCD and two alternative configurations prove strong contenders for further development and application.

Illinois↗

USGS2024

Surface elevation trends in North Carolina's coastal wetlands

Coastal wetlands exist in the narrow fringe between uplands and open water and consequently, are uniquely vulnerable to the impacts of sea level rise (SLR). Predictive models suggest that in the coming decades sea level rise will lead to substantial losses of coastal wetland habitat in North Carolina. Empirical measurements of wetland response to SLR are vital for understanding which wetland complexes are most immediately threatened, so that mitigation, adaptation, and conservation efforts can be prioritized accordingly. Surface Elevation Tables (SETs) provide high resolution measures of wetland elevation change that can meet this need. The North Carolina SET Community of Practice (NC SET COP) is a voluntary and unfunded partnership among stakeholders who have either installed Surface Elevation Tables (SETs) in North Carolina coastal wetlands, or who rely on SET data. The NC SET COP was formed in 2018 to identify and map the locations of all SETs installed within North Carolina, increase collaboration among SET users, and support efforts to identify regional trends in North Carolina coastal wetland response to sea level rise. The data presented here represent the first synoptic analysis of elevation trend data collected by NC SET COP partners. Of 132 SETs installed across North Carolina (NC), 33 recorded net losses in elevation over the entire record of measurement. Among the 99 SETs that recorded positive elevation change, 79 (80%) did not build elevation fast enough to keep pace with the average rate of SLR over the past 30 years. The story these data tell is clear: the majority of NC’s coastal wetlands are not keeping pace with SLR. These data also provide a spatially explicit understanding of which wetlands are most at risk, and as a result, the SET data can help guide the use of restoration efforts for maximum effectiveness.

North Carolina↗

USGS2006

Sources of variation in survival of breeding female wood ducks

In waterfowl, reproduction is physiologically demanding and females are exposed to varying risks of mortality at different periods of the breeding cycle. Moreover, differences among females may influence survival within breeding periods. We captured and fitted female Wood Ducks (Aix sponsa) with radio-transmitters before nest initiation during two breeding seasons to estimate survival and investigate sources of variation in survival. We partitioned the breeding season into three periods (preincubation, incubation, postnesting) according to breeding status of individual females, and used information-theoretic methods to compare models in which daily survival varied among periods, between successful and failed nesting females, and with parameters describing individual heterogeneity. Our analysis suggested that daily survival was best modeled as a function of breeding period, differences between successful and failed nesting females during postnesting, and early incubation body condition of successful females during post-nesting. Model-averaged daily survival was 0.9988 (95% CL: 0.9963-0.9996) during preincubation and 1.0 during incubation. Postnesting daily survival was 1.0 for failed nesting females and 0.9948 (0.9773-0.9988) for successful females, suggesting a trade-off between current reproduction and survival. Female age, body condition at capture, nest initiation date, and brood size generally were not useful for explaining variation in survival. Only early incubation body condition was important for modeling survival of successful females during postnesting; however, weight of evidence was limited and the effect on survival was weak. Mortality was greatest for females during preincubation and for females that nested successfully. Results support the hypothesis that brood care is costly for females. ?? The Cooper Ornithological Society 2006.

Condor↗

USGS2010

A cost-benefit analysis of preventative management for zebra and quagga mussels in the Colorado-Big Thompson System

Zebra and quagga mussels are fresh water invaders that have the potential to cause severe ecological and economic damage. It is estimated that mussels cause $1 billion dollars per year in damages to water infrastructure and industries in the United States (Pimentel et al., 2004). Following their introduction to the Great Lakes in the late 1980s, mussels spread rapidly throughout the Mississippi River Basin and the Eastern U.S. The mussel invasion in the West is young. Mussels were first identified in Nevada in 2007, and have since been identified in California, Arizona, Colorado, Utah, and Texas. Western water systems are very different from those found in the East. The rapid spread of mussels through the eastern system was facilitated by connected and navigable waterways. Western water systems are less connected and are characterized by man-made reservoirs and canals. The main vector of spread for mussels in the West is overland on recreational boats (Bossenbroek et al., 2001). In response to the invasion, many western water managers have implemented preventative management programs to slow the overland spread of mussels on recreational boats. In Colorado, the Colorado Department of Wildlife (CDOW) has implemented a mandatory boat inspection program that requires all trailered boats to be inspected before launching in any Colorado water body. The objective of this study is to analyze the costs and benefits of the CDOW boat inspection program in Colorado, and to identify variables that affect the net benefits of preventative management. Predicting the potential economic benefits of slowing the spread of mussels requires integrating information about mussel dispersal potential with estimates of control costs (Keller et al., 2009). Uncertainty surrounding the probabilities of establishment, the timing of invasions, and the damage costs associated with an invasion make a simulation model an excellent tool for addressing "what if" scenarios and shedding light on the net benefits of preventative management strategies. This study builds a bioeconomic simulation model to predict and compare the expected economic costs of the CDOW boat inspection program ot the benefits of reduced expected control costs to water conveyance systems, hydropower generation stations, and minicipal water treatment facilities. The model is based on a case study water delivery and storage system, the Colorado-Big Thompson system. The Colorado-Big Thomspon system is an excellent example of water systems in the Rocky Mountain West. The system is nearly entirely man-made, with all of its reservoirs and delivery points connected via pipelines, tunnels, and canals. The structures and hydropower systems of the Colorado-Big Thompson system are common to other western storage and delivery systems, making the methods and insight developed from this case study transferal to other western systems. The model developed in this study contributes to the bioeconomic literature in several ways. Foremost, the model predicts the spread of dreissena mussels and associated damage costs for a connected water system in the Rocky Mountain West. Very few zebra mussel studies have focused on western water systems. Another distinguishing factor is the simultaneous consideration of spread from propagules introduced by boats and by flows. Most zebra mussel dispersal models consider boater movement patterns combined with limnological characteristics as predictors of spread. A separate set of studies have addressed mussel spread via downstream flows. To the author's knowledge, this is the first study that builds a zebra mussel spread model that specifically accounts for propagule pressure from boat introductions and from downstream flow introductions. By modeling an entire connected system, the study highlights how the spatial layout of a system, and the risk of invasion within a system affect the benefits of preventative management. This report is presented in five chapters. The first chapter provides background information including a history of the zebra mussel invasion in the U.S. and in the West, and details about the Colorado preventative management program and the Colorado-Big Thompson system. The chapter also includes a literature review of mussel dispersal models and economic studies that address control costs and preventative management for aquatic invasive species. Chapter 2 presents the methodological approach used to analyze the costs and benefits of preventative management in the Colorado-Big Thompson system and provides details of the bioeconomic simulation model used to predict invasion patterns and the net benefits of preventative management. Results of the analysis and sensitivity testing of model parameters are presented in Chapter 3. Chapter 4 provides a summary of the analysis and conclusions. A discussion of the limitations of the model and areas for future research is presented in Chapter 5.

Thesis↗

USGS2014

Potential future land use threats to California's protected areas

Increasing pressures from land use coupled with future changes in climate will present unique challenges for California’s protected areas. We assessed the potential for future land use conversion on land surrounding existing protected areas in California’s twelve ecoregions, utilizing annual, spatially explicit (250 m) scenario projections of land use for 2006–2100 based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emission Scenarios to examine future changes in development, agriculture, and logging. We calculated a conversion threat index (CTI) for each unprotected pixel, combining land use conversion potential with proximity to protected area boundaries, in order to identify ecoregions and protected areas at greatest potential risk of proximal land conversion. Our results indicate that California’s Coast Range ecoregion had the highest CTI with competition for extractive logging placing the greatest demand on land in close proximity to existing protected areas. For more permanent land use conversions into agriculture and developed uses, our CTI results indicate that protected areas in the Central California Valley and Oak Woodlands are most vulnerable. Overall, the Eastern Cascades, Central California Valley, and Oak Woodlands ecoregions had the lowest areal percent of protected lands and highest conversion threat values. With limited resources and time, rapid, landscape-level analysis of potential land use threats can help quickly identify areas with higher conversion probability of future land use and potential changes to both habitat and potential ecosystem reserves. Given the broad range of future uncertainties, LULC projections are a useful tool allowing land managers to visualize alternative landscape futures, improve planning, and optimize management practices.

California↗

USGS2017

At a global scale, do climate change threatened species also face a greater number of non-climatic threats?

For many species the threats of climate change occur in a context of multiple existing threats. Given the current focus of global change ecology in identifying and understanding species vulnerable to climate change, we performed a global analysis to characterize the multi-threat context for species threatened by climate change. Utilizing 30,053 species from the International Union for Conservation of Nature’s (IUCN) Red List of Threatened Species, we sought to evaluate if species threatened by climate change are more likely threatened by a greater number of non-climatic threats than species not threatened by climate change. Our results show that species threatened by climate change are generally impacted by 21% more non-climatic threats than species not threatened by climate change. Across all species, this pattern is related to IUCN risk status, where endangered species threatened by climate change face 33% more non-climatic threats than endangered species not threatened by climate change. With the clear challenges of assessing current and projected impacts of climate change on species and ecosystems, research often requires reductionist approaches that result in downplaying this multi-threat context. This cautionary note bears relevance beyond climate change threatened species as we also found other (but not all) anthropogenic threats are also similarly associated with more threats. Our findings serve as a reminder that ecological research should seriously consider these potential threat interactions, especially for species under elevated conservation concern.

Global Ecology and Conservation↗

USGS1997

Vulnerability of ground water to atrazine leaching in Kent County, Michigan

A steady-state model of pesticide leaching through the unsaturated zone was used with readily available hydrologic, lithologic, and pesticide characteristics to estimate the vulnerability of the near-surface aquifer to atrazine contamination from non-point sources in Kent County, Michigan. The modelcomputed fraction of atrazine remaining at the water table, RM , was used as the vulnerability criterion; time of travel to the water table also was computed. Model results indicate that the average fraction of atrazine remaining at the water table was 0.039 percent; the fraction ranged from 0 to 3.6 percent. Time of travel of atrazine from the soil surface to the water table averaged 17.7 years and ranged from 2.2 to 118 years. Three maps were generated to present three views of the same atrazine vulnerability characteristics using different metrics (nonlinear transformations of the computed fractions remaining). The metrics were chosen because of the highly (right) skewed distribution of computed fractions. The first metric, rm = RM λ (where λ was 0.0625), depicts a relatively uniform distribution of vulnerability across the county with localized areas of high and low vulnerability visible. The second metric, rm λ-0.5 , depicts about one-half the county at low vulnerability with discontinuous patterns of high vulnerability evident. In the third metric, rm λ-1.0 ( RM ), more than 95 percent of the county appears to have low vulnerability; small, distinct areas of high vulnerability are present. Aquifer vulnerability estimates in the RM metric were used with a steady-state, uniform atrazine application rate to compute a potential concentration of atrazine in leachate reaching the water table. The average estimated potential atrazine concentration in leachate at the water table was 0.16 μg/L (micrograms per liter) in the model area; estimated potential concentrations ranged from 0 to 26 μg/L. About 2 percent of the model area had estimated potential atrazine concentrations in leachate at the water table that exceeded the USEPA (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency) maximum contaminant level of 3 μg/L. Uncertainty analyses were used to assess effects of parameter uncertainty and spatial interpolation error on the variability of the estimated fractions of atrazine remaining at the water table. Results of Monte Carlo simulations indicate that parameter uncertainty is associated with a standard error of 0.0875 in the computed fractions (in the rm metric). Results of kriging analysis indicate that errors in spatial interpolation are associated with a standard error of 0.146 (in the rm metric). Thus, uncertainty in fractions remaining is primarily associated with spatial interpolation error, which can be reduced by increasing the density of points where the leaching model is applied. A sensitivity analysis indicated which of 13 hydrologic, lithologic, and pesticide characteristics were influential in determining fractions of atrazine remaining at the water table. Results indicate that fractions remaining are most sensitive to the unit changes in pesticide half life and in organic-carbon content in soils and unweathered rocks, and least sensitive to infiltration rates. The leaching model applied in this report provides an estimate of the vulnerability of the near-surface aquifer in Kent County to contamination by atrazine. The vulnerability estimate is related to water-quality criteria developed by the USEPA to help assess potential risks from atrazine to the near-surface aquifer. However, atrazine accounts for only 28 percent of the herbicide use in the county; additional potential for contamination exists from other pesticides and pesticide metabolites. Therefore, additional work is needed to develop a comprehensive understanding of the relative risks associated with specific pesticides. The modeling approach described in this report provides a technique for estimating relative vulnerabilities to specific pesticides and for helping to assess potential risks.

Michigan↗

USGS2023

Per- and polyfluorinated alkyl substances (PFAS) in Pennsylvania surface waters: A statewide assessment, associated sources, and land-use relations

The objectives of this study are to identify per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) in Pennsylvania surface waters, corresponding associations with potential sources of PFAS contamination (PSOC) and other parameters, and compare raw surface water concentrations to human and ecological benchmarks. Surface water samples from 161 streams were collected in September 2019 and were analyzed for 33 target PFAS and water chemistry. Land use and physical attributes in upstream catchments and geospatial counts of PSOC in local catchments are summarized. The hydrologic yield of the sum of 33 PFAS (∑PFAS) for each stream was computed by normalizing each site's load by the drainage area of the upstream catchment. Utilizing conditional inference tree analysis, the percentage of development (>7.58 %) was identified as a primary driver of the ∑PFAS hydrologic yields. When percentage of development was removed from analysis, ∑PFAS yields were closely related to surface water chemistry associated with landscape alteration (e.g., development or agricultural cropland), such as concentrations of total nitrogen, chloride, and ammonia, but also to count of water pollution control facilities (agricultural, industrial, stormwater, and/or municipal waste pollution abatement facilities). In oil and gas development regions, ∑PFAS yields were associated with combined sewage outfalls. Sites surrounded by ≥2 electronic manufacturing facilities had elevated ∑PFAS yields (median = 241 ng/s/km 2 ). Study results are critical to guide future research, regulatory policy, best practices that will mitigate PFAS contamination, and the communication of human health and ecological risks associated with PFAS exposure from surface waters.

Pennsylvania↗