Surface elevation trends in North Carolina's coastal wetlands

Abstract

Coastal wetlands exist in the narrow fringe between uplands and open water and consequently, are uniquely vulnerable to the impacts of sea level rise (SLR). Predictive models suggest that in the coming decades sea level rise will lead to substantial losses of coastal wetland habitat in North Carolina. Empirical measurements of wetland response to SLR are vital for understanding which wetland complexes are most immediately threatened, so that mitigation, adaptation, and conservation efforts can be prioritized accordingly. Surface Elevation Tables (SETs) provide high resolution measures of wetland elevation change that can meet this need. The North Carolina SET Community of Practice (NC SET COP) is a voluntary and unfunded partnership among stakeholders who have either installed Surface Elevation Tables (SETs) in North Carolina coastal wetlands, or who rely on SET data. The NC SET COP was formed in 2018 to identify and map the locations of all SETs installed within North Carolina, increase collaboration among SET users, and support efforts to identify regional trends in North Carolina coastal wetland response to sea level rise. The data presented here represent the first synoptic analysis of elevation trend data collected by NC SET COP partners. Of 132 SETs installed across North Carolina (NC), 33 recorded net losses in elevation over the entire record of measurement. Among the 99 SETs that recorded positive elevation change, 79 (80%) did not build elevation fast enough to keep pace with the average rate of SLR over the past 30 years. The story these data tell is clear: the majority of NC’s coastal wetlands are not keeping pace with SLR. These data also provide a spatially explicit understanding of which wetlands are most at risk, and as a result, the SET data can help guide the use of restoration efforts for maximum effectiveness.