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At least 181 records · Page 10Linked to original sources
USGS2026

Incorporating wetland drowning thresholds to assess the spatiotemporal variability in potential wetland migration and submergence from sea-level rise

In the coming decades sea-level rise rates could exceed the upper bounds of coastal wetland vertical movement leading to wetland submergence. Consequently, understanding the spatiotemporal variability of wetland migration and submergence at regional and national scales can inform decision making. In this study, we developed an approach that addresses elevation error in digital elevation models for wetlands, incorporates uncertainty in current and future water levels, and utilizes recent literature on coastal wetland drowning thresholds. We used our framework to predict wetland change with sea-level rise for the middle and upper Texas coast—a region that is experiencing some of the highest relative sea-level rise rates in the United States. Our elevation-based approach produced contemporary wetland maps that had a high level of agreement (> 87–91%) with existing national wetland maps. For the intermediate relative sea-level rise scenario, extensive change is predicted within the study area by 2100, including a net decrease in coverage of irregularly oceanic-flooded wetlands (-37%) and regularly oceanic-flooded wetlands (-23%). The wetland migration space of these two wetland zones is largely made up of existing wetlands (> 70%), but also includes other upland areas, such as pasture/hay and grassland. By breaking down our results for the full region and two distinct focal areas, we highlight the spatiotemporal variability of wetland change. Our scalable approach provides natural resource managers with information for developing location-specific strategies for balancing the trade-offs associated with wetland change from sea-level rise.

Texas↗
USGS2026

ETAS-positive: Extracting unbiased epidemic-type aftershock models from incomplete earthquake catalogs

Earthquake catalogs are inherently incomplete, and short-term fluctuations in catalog completeness can strongly bias estimates of seismicity parameters. Here, we extend the positive statistics framework recently introduced for estimating Gutenberg–Richter a and b values to the Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model. The approach focuses on complete magnitude–time intervals defined by pairs of earthquakes in which the second event is larger than the first. Comprehensive synthetic tests demonstrate that the proposed ETAS + method retrieves nearly unbiased parameter estimates even from highly incomplete catalogs, whereas parameters obtained using classical estimation approaches are strongly biased. Application to Southern California reveals a similar trend, with the productivity scaling parameter α approaching the b value, consistent with self-similar earthquake triggering within estimation uncertainties. Owing to its robustness against catalog incompleteness and computational efficiency, the ETAS + method provides a powerful new tool for seismicity analysis and earthquake forecasting.

California↗
USGS2026

Cyanobacteria Assessment Network: Pilot study with Sentinel-2 derived chlorophyll data

Harmful algal blooms (HABs) affect global water quality, limiting uses like recreation and consumption because of excessive algal biomass and toxin production. These blooms cause surface scums, taste and odor issues, hypoxia, and negative health and socioeconomic impacts. The US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) manages over 400 lakes and reservoirs and seeks to improve monitoring of HABs through Sentinel-2 (S2) satellite imagery. The purpose of this project is to develop workflows for a national chlorophyll-a product with 20 m spatial resolution, enabling HAB monitoring for over 270,000 lakes and reservoirs. The 1-year pilot study established a federal partnership to conduct preliminary S2 processing steps, using datasets from Florida, Ohio, and Oregon. Key steps included in situ data aggregation, data assimilation, S2 algorithm evaluation, spatial and temporal compositing, satellite sensor cross-validation, and web hosting of an example prototype product. The study covers 29 USACE reservoirs, with cross-validation using Sentinel-3 (S3) data from 212 lakes. The multiagency initiative aligns with federal agency missions to protect health and the environment, supports acts like the 2017 Harmful Algal Bloom and Hypoxia Research and Control Act, and has annual potential avoided costs of $42 million.

contiguous United States↗
USGS2026

High-resolution landscape-scale maps of nutrients, phytoplankton, and related water-quality constituents in Suisun Bay and the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta, California, during 2018—Results from high-resolution underway surveys

We examined the abundance and distribution of nutrients and phytoplankton in the tidal aquatic environments of the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta (Delta) and Suisun, Grizzly, and Honker Bays in California by completing three spatial surveys that used continuous underway high frequency (1 hertz) measurements and sampling onboard a high-speed boat. Surveys were conducted in May, July, and October 2018. Water was sampled continuously during surveys to simultaneously collect information about the concentration and spatial distribution of all major nutrient forms together with information about the major classes of phytoplankton and associated standard field measurements of water quality, such as dissolved oxygen, dissolved organic matter, pH, salinity, specific conductance, turbidity, and water temperature. The results show a greater than 50-fold variation in nutrient and phytoplankton concentrations across space and time, providing evidence of the dynamic environmental processes that shape the ways nutrients interact with and affect Delta aquatic habitats.

California↗
USGS2026

At the edge of change: Native Phragmites persistence and nonnative arrival along the dam-regulated Colorado River

Premise The southwestern United States is at the forefront of nonnative Phragmites australis subsp. australis expansion. Native Phragmites australis subsp. americanus , likely in decline in North America, is ecologically and culturally important and of conservation interest. In the greater Grand Canyon region, the Glen Canyon Dam led to loss of habitat upstream and increases in Phragmites downstream. Recent increases correspond with changes to dam operations and the arrival of nonnative Phragmites . Determining the native status of Phragmites stands along the Colorado River and around Lake Powell can inform complex management choices and restoration planning. Methods Phragmites subspecies at 83 locations from southern Utah through northern Arizona, United States were genetically tested using real-time PCR. Genetic diversity and structure were assessed using microsatellite loci for 13 native Phragmites stands. Morphological traits of southwestern native Phragmites were compared to those of nonnative Phragmites . Results Nonnative Phragmites was identified at four of the 83 locations. Native Phragmites in the study area is genetically diverse with little regional genetic structure, but substantial genetic differentiation among sites. Southwestern native Phragmites is morphologically variable, but characteristics can be used together to distinguish it from nonnative Phragmites . Conclusions The greater Grand Canyon and Glen Canyon regions support a large, genetically diverse native Phragmites population, which is potentially threatened by nonnative Phragmites and changes to river management. Determining conditions that would lead to nonnative Phragmites invasion of desert wetlands will facilitate discussions about the risks and benefits of Phragmites management in these unique ecosystems.

Arizona, Nevada, Utah↗
USGS2026

Deep learning models for mapping surficial geology in selected physiographic regions of New York

Surficial geologic mapping is required for decisions including infrastructure and water-resource development and management. Deep learning, a type of machine learning that uses training data to self-learn and perform tasks, is explored as a tool to help increase efficiency of the labour- and time-intensive mapping process. Deep learning models were trained, and their potential to aid in mapping surficial geology was explored for two physiographic regions in New York: the high-relief Allegheny Plateau and the low-relief Erie-Ontario Lowlands. Key to the development of deep learning models is the availability of highly detailed surficial geologic maps in each of these regions from which the models can learn. Through exploring different groupings of surficial deposits and their corresponding spatial data, deep learning models were iteratively developed to reproduce published mapping for greater than 79% of the training areas, and with similar accuracy in test areas within the same physiographic region. These models were trained using only two inputs: high-resolution lidar data and previously published surficial geologic maps. This straightforward approach is intended to make the methods and models created easily reproducible using widely accessible datasets. This research describes the strengths and limitations of lidar-derived surficial geologic models and how broadly grouping surficial types, characteristics of different physiographic regions, and testing models in physiographic regions outside of their training areas affect model creation and performance. In addition, the models created could be used as a tool for mapping surficial geology in similar physiographic regions, in addition to establishing a framework for creating similar models elsewhere.

New York↗
USGS2026

The rising threat of lead: Trends in fatalities of California condors

Endangered species face threats that change over time, and understanding variation in the importance of threats is valuable for guiding species recovery. The reintroduced population of critically endangered California condors has faced a number of threats over the three decades since the species was first released back to the wild. We modeled interannual and interseasonal trends in the leading causes of death for wild condors. Our analysis showed strong evidence ( P = 0.971) that the estimated annual probability of death from lead toxicosis has increased since reintroduction started. This increase was most pronounced in the central California subpopulation. Adults were disproportionately affected by lead toxicosis, a trend that may be explained by increased exposure associated with age-related changes in foraging behavior that lead to decreased reliance on clean proffered food sources. Population-level mortality from trauma showed a temporary increase in 2012, and fire-related mortality was higher during the summer months. Pattens also varied across subpopulations, with the southern California subpopulation of condors showing distinct temporal peaks in deaths from trauma (in 2012) and predation (in 2010). Our analysis suggests that threats to condors have not been static over space and time. Managers can therefore use this information to adaptively manage and target mitigation efforts when and where they are the most effective.

California↗
USGS2026

Depositional environment and diagenetic history of gas hydrate-bearing sediments of the Alaska North Slope (HYDRATE 02 Geo Data Well)

We characterized the lithological, solid-phase geochemical, and rock magnetic properties of sediment cores from subpermafrost strata on the Alaska North Slope collected as part of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), the Japan Organization for Metals and Energy Security (JOGMEC), and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Collaborative Gas Hydrate Research and Development (R&D) Project in Alaska. Pressure cores were recovered from the HYDRATE 02 Geo Data Well (GDW) at the Kuparuk State 7-11-12 site through two hydrate-bearing sand reservoirs, the B1 and D1 sands, and their finer-grained bounding sediments. Both the B1 and D1 sands are quartz-rich, chert-bearing, very fine litharenite sands. These submature to immature sands are poorly to moderately sorted and angular with local fine-scale cross-stratification. The B1 sand has larger grains and a lower clay content as compared to the D1 sand. These sands are the upper portions of upward coarsening progradational sequences. The clay- and silt-rich bounding muds exhibit fine-scale wavy and lenticular laminations, suggesting episodic high energy deposition events. Overall, these sediments were deposited in a shoreface to nearshore marine environment during the Paleogene, modulated by changing depositional energy associated with sea level variation. Organic matter δ 13 C and C/N composition of these sediments indicate a source mixture of land plants and freshwater plankton, with possible minor presence of oil within the B1 sand. These sediments contain high and variable total sulfur (TS) content, suggesting porewater conditions influenced by variable salinity over time. Rock magnetic analyses indicate precipitation of greigite in the mud beneath the D1 sand, in the basal C shale overlying the B1 sand, and the mud beneath the B1 sand, likely due to intervals of sulfate limitation during periods of lower Arctic Ocean salinity. Based on pyrite abundance, TS, and δ 34 S-TS composition, the D1 sand and bounding sediments experienced more substantial sulfide precipitation. The unit E basal shale overlying the D1 sand contains a 0.25 m thick pyrite-dominant sand, indicating local bottom water anoxic conditions. X-ray fluorescence scanning and discrete measurements provide additional supporting interpretation of the depositional and diagenetic processes that have occurred at this site and track the relative amount of drilling fluid contamination with barium abundance in the core samples.

Alaska↗
USGS2026

Restoring elk in Minnesota: Landowner support for restoring an elk population

Public support is critical to successfully restore wildlife populations and avoid future human–wildlife conflict. We used a structural equation model (SEM) to analyze 2550 survey responses from landowners in northeast Minnesota to examine the influence of four psychological constructs on support for restoring a wild, free-ranging elk ( Cervus canadensis ) population in the region. Our model included perceived risk from elk, social trust in the state wildlife agency, perceived personal control over impacts from elk, and attitudes toward elk. Perceived risk, perceived personal control, and social trust each had a direct, significant impact on attitudes toward elk. Attitudes had a significant, direct effect on support for restoring elk, and perceived risk had a significant, indirect effect on support. Our model explained 66% of variability in support for restoring an elk population and 50% of variability in attitudes toward elk. We found abundant support among landowners to restore an elk population in northeast Minnesota, but continued effort will be necessary to maintain support when elk restoration occurs. Our findings in northeast Minnesota suggest messaging should focus on helping landowners cope with potential threats through improving their trust in the state wildlife agency (i.e., social trust) and ability to avoid negative outcomes from an elk population (i.e., personal control).

northeast Minnesota↗
USGS2026

Null models reveal differing drivers of multidimensional beta diversity change in invaded metacommunities

Aim Invasion-driven changes in beta diversity (Δβ) are multifaceted (taxonomic, functional, and phylogenetic) and are comprised of three components (total beta diversity, replacement, and richness difference); therefore, they represent a nine-dimensional phenomenon. Invasion-driven trajectories of multidimensional Δβ are inconsistent and can vary based on the geographic origin of nonnative species, native community structure, and site attributes. Here, we examine the drivers of multidimensional Δβ to better understand how nonnative species alter biodiversity. Location 1023 wadable-stream fish communities across the conterminous United States. Methods We characterized nine dimensions of Δβ as changes in local contribution to beta diversity (ΔLCBD) derived from pairwise beta diversity of all 1023 sites between contemporary and native-only assemblages at each site. We used redundancy analysis and variance partitioning to identify and estimate the relative importance of 18 Δβ drivers related to nonnative species origin, propagule pressure, abiotic factors, and native community structure. We compared results between those from raw and null model standardized LCBD. Results We found an overall trend of taxonomic homogenization due to nonnative species occurrences. However, null model standardization revealed inconsistent directional change in functional and phylogenetic Δβ, and also revealed Δβ patterns and drivers that differed from those of raw values. Sites did not contribute evenly to overall Δβ trends, with nonnative species origin and native community structure explaining the most variation in ΔLCBD (16% and 15% respectively). Nonnative occurrences, regardless of origin, contributed to taxonomic homogenization, with the magnitude of change dependent on origin. Native community structure dictated the direction of phylogenetic Δβ, with phylogenetically distinct sites contributing to homogenization. Conclusions Our findings demonstrate the utility in using LCBD to identify site-level drivers of Δβ and the need for null model standardization of multidimensional Δβ metrics. Additionally, our results show that spatially explicit definitions of nonnative species are needed to gain robust estimates of Δβ.

conterminous United States↗
USGS2026

Monitoring recreation on federally managed lands and waters—Aspects of visitor use

Federally managed public lands and waters receive around 1 billion recreational visits each year. Data on these visitors can aid in guiding policy decisions, managing resources effectively, and communicating the economic contributions of lands and waters. This report explores the methods used by agencies to collect data on aspects of recreational visitor use to Federal lands and waters (apart from visitation numbers, which are the focus of a companion publication). Aspects of recreational visitor use include visitor demographics, recreational activity participation, visitor satisfaction, visitor attitudes and experiences, trip characteristics, and economic contributions. We review practices used to understand aspects of visitor use across seven Federal agencies, revealing similarities such as the use of visitor intercept surveys and coverage of similar topic areas, and differences in how survey programs are operationalized and how specific questions on visitor surveys are worded. We also evaluate emerging technologies, such as geolocated social media and mobile device location data, for their potential to aid in understanding aspects of visitor use. This report concludes with potential opportunities to enhance data collection and coordination, ensuring cost-effective data collection and informed decision making.

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2026

Estimating habitat availability for Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and steelhead (O. mykiss) to inform reintroduction planning in the middle Snake River basin, USA

Anadromous fishes have been blocked from the middle Snake River basin since the construction of flood control, irrigation, and hydroelectric projects during the 19 th and 20 th centuries, culminating with the construction of Hells Canyon Dam (river kilometer [rkm] 398) in 1967. Seven large watersheds in the blocked area of the basin are under consideration for Pacific salmon reintroduction. The primary objective of this study was to identify and characterize potential reintroduction sites with high-quality rearing and spawning habitat for Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) and steelhead ( O. mykiss ) upstream of the Hells Canyon Complex in Idaho, Oregon, and Nevada, USA. We created and tested habitat models to predict rearing presence/absence, rearing abundance, and spawning presence/absence using channel morphology, hydrology, and stream temperature variables obtained from regional peer-reviewed datasets. Habitat models were trained with salmonid presence and abundance records collected in the lower Snake River basin (downstream of Hells Canyon Dam), where anadromous fish can currently access, from 1993 to 2011. Model performance was tested with set-aside data comprised of randomly selected reaches and independent environmental DNA data. An index model was created in the middle Snake River basin for each species by combining results from the habitat models. Modeling covariates differed by species and life stage and included different combinations of August stream temperature, summer flow, channel slope, and quadratic terms for temperature and slope. The habitat models predicted high versus low Chinook salmon and steelhead probability and abundance with 66% to 85% accuracy depending on species and life stage. The index models predicted a total of 2,887 km of Chinook salmon habitat and 2,434 km of steelhead habitat in the blocked area. The three basins in the blocked area with the greatest amount of predicted habitat were the Powder River, South Fork Payette River, and North Fork Payette River for Chinook salmon, and the Powder River, South Fork Boise River, and South Fork Payette River for steelhead. The modeling approach presented here is complementary to other planning efforts for Chinook salmon and steelhead reintroduction in the blocked area of the Snake River basin, and similar approaches may be useful for reintroduction planning in other systems.

Idaho, Nevada, Oregon, Utah, Washington, Wyoming↗
USGS2026

Core microbiomes as a potential fingerprinting method of Western USA dust sources

Introduction: Changing frequency and intensity of dust emissions impacts ecosystems and human health. Dust carries microbes, nutrients, heavy metals, and other materials that may change environmental biogeochemistry at deposition sites. Identifying dust sources provides key information on where and when mitigation strategies should be employed. However, commonly used geochemical or isotopic tracers are often not capable of distinguishing between geographic regions. Methods: We explored whether soil bacterial communities may provide distinct fingerprints of dust sources in the western United States. We identified bacterial core communities of dust from ten locations monitored by the National Wind Erosion Research Network (NWERN) with varied land use (cropland, rangeland, and playa), and compared communities to location, soil, and regional characteristics. Samples were collected monthly from Modified Wilson and Cooke (MWAC) samplers, composited by season (spring, summer, and fall), and analyzed using 16S rRNA sequencing. Results: We found distinct bacterial core communities that reflected dust source characteristics. In order of importance, precipitation levels ( p = 0.0001), location ( p = 0.0001), soil texture ( p = 0.0001), seasonality ( p = 0.0001), and elevation (p = 0.0002) were correlated with bacterial community composition. Discussion: Distinct bacterial core communities were associated with site characteristics such as biocrusts, playas, and military base proximity. Our results suggest that the use of core microbiomes may offer a fingerprinting method to identify dust source regions.

Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, North Dakota, Oklaho↗
USGS2026

Permeability and compressibility of “seal” sediment overlying the B1 sand gas hydrate reservoir: Hydrate 02 Geo Data Well, Prudhoe Bay unit, Alaska North Slope

An important element in evaluating the viability of extracting methane from a gas hydrate-bearing reservoir is establishing the effectiveness of the overlying bounding sediment as a seal to prevent gas loss, to enable effective depressurization, and to prevent fluid from entering the reservoir during production. This laboratory study presents results for index properties (e.g., grain density, grain size, and liquid limit), compressibility and swelling indices, and permeability measurements on sediment overlying the gas hydrate-bearing reservoir that was the target of the recent JOGMEC-DOE-USGS collaborative gas hydrate production testing project on the Alaska North Slope (ANS). Sediment analyzed in this study was collected during pressure coring operations in the HYDRATE 02 Geo Data Well (GDW). The ∼6.1 m sediment interval recovered in Cores 13P and 14P (878.74–884.88 m measured depth, MD) exhibited heterogeneous sedimentologic characteristics at the centimeter scale, with sediments ranging from clay to thin silty-sand lithologies. Permeability measurements and index-property correlations indicate the interval’s overall in situ vertical permeability ranges from 0.2 to 3.6 microdarcy (μD). Results for compressibility ( C C = 0.255 ± 0.02) and swelling index ( C S = 0.04 ± 0.01) are consistent with estimates based on mineralogy and liquid limit correlations. Based on the measured compressibility, the ∼3 MPa increase in effective stress during the stable phase of depressurization-induced production is anticipated to have imposed 2.43 cm of compaction per meter in the reservoir overburden, reducing permeability by ∼36%. The overburden sediment’s low in situ permeability (3 to 4 orders of magnitude below permeabilities measured in the gas hydrate-bearing part of the B1 sand (unit B)) suggests the B1 sand′s overburden provides an effective seal. Such a seal promotes efficient production by limiting fluid flow into the reservoir during depressurization-induced gas hydrate dissociation.

Alaska↗
USGS2026

Strength, stiffness, and Poisson’s ratio measurements for cements used in the well completions for the extended-duration gas production test on the Alaskan North Slope

As part of an extended-duration production test from a natural gas hydrate reservoir on the Alaska North Slope, a suite of optical-fiber sensors was encased in the completion cement to provide stable downhole monitoring around each of the four project wells. How the sensors respond to changes in the reservoir over time depends in part on properties of the LiteCRETE, ArcticCem, or Tuned Light cement in which each sensor is encased, and on how well the cement bonded to the well casing, sensors, and sediment formation. Here, we report on physical properties of the cements (compressive and tensile strength, stiffness, and Poisson’s ratio), on the downhole distribution of the cements used in each well, and on the cement bond quality. Physical property measurements are presented for cements sampled during the completion activities for the three wells completed in 2022–2023. Samples were cured while being submerged in water at 2–4 °C, then tested at intervals from ∼30 days to more than one year. After an initial period of rapid increase, cement strengths largely stabilized around 120 days in all cases, meaning that cements in all wells reached their nominal strength plateau four months or more before the production test began. Calculations based on recorded volumes of pumped cement show the subpermafrost, main hole portion of each well is encased only in the higher-density “tail” cement used in that well. Downhole cement evaluation logs from two wells demonstrate how the presence of sensors and other hardware outside the casing interferes with the cement evaluation assessment. Nonetheless, the cement evaluations indicate a generally good bond with the formation and sensors over the gas hydrate reservoir intervals.

Alaska↗
USGS2026

Lithological control of gas hydrate saturation determined by pressure core analysis in sub-permafrost reservoirs of the Alaska North Slope (HYDRATE 02 Geo Data Well)

Quantitatively degassing pressure cores by controlled depressurization is a key approach to characterizing gas hydrate reservoirs by measuring the gas hydrate saturation (S h ) of sediments. We measured S h for 53 core sections from the Alaska North Slope during the JOGMEC-DOE-USGS Collaborative Gas Hydrate R&D Project in Alaska, from subpermafrost sediments that were later subjected to an extended-duration gas production test. We characterized lithologic influences on S h using physical property core scans (P-wave velocity, gamma ray attenuation density, and X-ray computed tomography) and grain size measurements. Pressure cores were recovered from the Hydrate-02 Geo Data Well (GDW) at the Kuparuk State 7-11-12 site through two hydrate-bearing sand reservoirs, the B1 and D1 sands, and their finer-grained bounding sediments. S h reaches very high values (68 to 91% of the pore space) in silty fine sands within the B1 sand, which also contains two lower P-wave velocity intervals (one measured at 30% S h ) within the main reservoir. S h and grain sizes of the B1 sand are generally higher than the D1 sand, which hosts high S h (53 to 73%) within its sandy silt to silty fine sands. The heterogeneous silty clay to silt “seal” sediments directly overlying both reservoirs have low S h (0 to 13%) even in thin, coarser beds, suggesting minimal methane transport between the reservoir and seal. S h decreases with depth downward toward the base of both the D1 and B1 sands, corresponding to decreasing grain size. These transitions are underlain by silty clay to clayey silt sediments with low S h (<10%), similar to the seal sediments. Slow depressurization was used to estimate a brackish salinity based on the pressure and temperature of the onset of hydrate dissociation for two core sections within the B1 sand. We show that S h increases with median grain size, sand content, and porosity but exhibits some variation within the sand beds that is not directly explained by lithology.

Alaska↗
USGS2026

Emergent headwater types for watershed monitoring, research, and planning

Headwaters—that is headwater streams and the watersheds they drain—strongly influence water quality, ecosystem services, and hydrologic connectivity, yet remain poorly mapped, monitored, and understood at large spatial scales. Using available spatial data to classify headwater “types” could therefore enhance the utility of sparse monitoring data to advance research and watershed planning—and help update literature-based perceptual models of headwaters as steep, forested, and minimally disturbed watersheds. Here, we analyze headwaters across the contiguous United States to quantify how their attributes (climate, topography, land cover, soils) vary regionally and differ from their downstream watersheds. Our analysis (a) identified seven dominant headwater types with distinct combinations of biophysical and climatic attributes and (b) revealed systematic contrasts with downstream watersheds, with strongest differences in attributes representing potential flowpath depth. Our findings offer a transferable framework for classifying, modeling, and managing these critical yet understudied components of the hydrologic network.

conterminous United States↗