Estimating habitat availability for Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and steelhead (O. mykiss) to inform reintroduction planning in the middle Snake River basin, USA

Abstract

Anadromous fishes have been blocked from the middle Snake River basin since the construction of flood control, irrigation, and hydroelectric projects during the 19 th and 20 th centuries, culminating with the construction of Hells Canyon Dam (river kilometer [rkm] 398) in 1967. Seven large watersheds in the blocked area of the basin are under consideration for Pacific salmon reintroduction. The primary objective of this study was to identify and characterize potential reintroduction sites with high-quality rearing and spawning habitat for Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) and steelhead ( O. mykiss ) upstream of the Hells Canyon Complex in Idaho, Oregon, and Nevada, USA. We created and tested habitat models to predict rearing presence/absence, rearing abundance, and spawning presence/absence using channel morphology, hydrology, and stream temperature variables obtained from regional peer-reviewed datasets. Habitat models were trained with salmonid presence and abundance records collected in the lower Snake River basin (downstream of Hells Canyon Dam), where anadromous fish can currently access, from 1993 to 2011. Model performance was tested with set-aside data comprised of randomly selected reaches and independent environmental DNA data. An index model was created in the middle Snake River basin for each species by combining results from the habitat models. Modeling covariates differed by species and life stage and included different combinations of August stream temperature, summer flow, channel slope, and quadratic terms for temperature and slope. The habitat models predicted high versus low Chinook salmon and steelhead probability and abundance with 66% to 85% accuracy depending on species and life stage. The index models predicted a total of 2,887 km of Chinook salmon habitat and 2,434 km of steelhead habitat in the blocked area. The three basins in the blocked area with the greatest amount of predicted habitat were the Powder River, South Fork Payette River, and North Fork Payette River for Chinook salmon, and the Powder River, South Fork Boise River, and South Fork Payette River for steelhead. The modeling approach presented here is complementary to other planning efforts for Chinook salmon and steelhead reintroduction in the blocked area of the Snake River basin, and similar approaches may be useful for reintroduction planning in other systems.