Model estimated baseflow for streams with endangered Atlantic Salmon in Maine, USA

Abstract

We present a regression model for estimating mean August baseflow per square kilometer of drainage area to help resource managers assess relative amounts of baseflow in Maine streams with Atlantic Salmon habitat. The model was derived from mean August baseflows computed at 31 USGS streamflow gages in Maine. We use an ordinary least squares regression model to estimate mean August baseflow per unit drainage area from two explanatory variables: percentage of the basin underlain by sand and gravel aquifers and mean July precipitation in the basin. This model provides the ability to estimate mean August baseflow in cubic meters per second per square kilometer of basin area on user-selected, ungaged sites throughout Maine south of 46° 21′55″ N latitude. The model has an adjusted R 2 of 0.78 and a mean 95% prediction interval of plus or minus 0.002 cubic meters per second per square kilometer. A map of the Narraguagus watershed in eastern coastal Maine shows reaches color coded by relative amounts of baseflow predicted by the model as an example of how this method could be applied throughout Maine. The map can be used to identify reaches with relatively higher amounts of baseflow during summer low flows for habitat conservation and restoration work. These areas have the potential to be high-quality habitat for Atlantic salmon and other cold-water fish because baseflows are known to moderate stream temperatures in summer low-flow periods.