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Jonathan W. Godt

Publications and source records attributed to Jonathan W. Godt.

At least 55 records · Page 3Linked to original sources
USGS2015

Landslide mobility and hazards: implications of the 2014 Oso disaster

Landslides reflect landscape instability that evolves over meteorological and geological timescales, and they also pose threats to people, property, and the environment. The severity of these threats depends largely on landslide speed and travel distance, which are collectively described as landslide &ldquo;mobility&rdquo;. To investigate causes and effects of mobility, we focus on a disastrous landslide that occurred on 22 March 2014 near Oso, Washington, USA, following a long period of abnormally wet weather. The landslide's impacts were severe because its mobility exceeded that of prior historical landslides at the site, and also exceeded that of comparable landslides elsewhere. The &sim;8&times;10 6 m 3 landslide originated on a gently sloping (<20&deg;) riverside bluff only 180 m high, yet it traveled across the entire &sim;1 km breadth of the adjacent floodplain and spread laterally a similar distance. Seismological evidence indicates that high-speed, flowing motion of the landslide began after about 50 s of preliminary slope movement, and observational evidence supports the hypothesis that the high mobility of the landslide resulted from liquefaction of water-saturated sediment at its base. Numerical simulation of the event using a newly developed model indicates that liquefaction and high mobility can be attributed to compression- and/or shear-induced sediment contraction that was strongly dependent on initial conditions. An alternative numerical simulation indicates that the landslide would have been far less mobile if its initial porosity and water content had been only slightly lower. Sensitive dependence of landslide mobility on initial conditions has broad implications for assessment of landslide hazards.

Washington↗
USGS2015

Closing the loop of the soil water retention curve

The authors, to their knowledge for the first time, produced two complete principal soil water retention curves (SWRCs) under both positive and negative matric suction regimes. An innovative testing technique combining the transient water release and imbibition method (TRIM) and constant flow method (CFM) was used to identify the principal paths of SWRC in the positive pore-water pressure regime under unsaturated conditions. A negative matric suction of 9.8 kPa is needed to reach full saturation or close the loop of the SWRC for a silty soil. This work pushes the understanding of the interaction of soil and water into new territory by quantifying the boundaries of the SWRC over the entire suction domain, including both wetting and drying conditions that are relevant to field conditions such as slope wetting under heavy rainfall or rapid groundwater table rise in earthen dams or levees.

Journal of Geotechnical and Geoenvironmental Engin↗
USGS2015

High-rate injection is associated with the increase in U.S. mid-continent seismicity

An unprecedented increase in earthquakes in the U.S. mid-continent began in 2009. Many of these earthquakes have been documented as induced by wastewater injection. We examine the relationship between wastewater injection and U.S. mid-continent seismicity using a newly assembled injection well database for the central and eastern United States. We find that the entire increase in earthquake rate is associated with fluid injection wells. High-rate injection wells (>300,000 barrels per month) are much more likely to be associated with earthquakes than lower-rate wells. At the scale of our study, a well&rsquo;s cumulative injected volume, monthly wellhead pressure, depth, and proximity to crystalline basement do not strongly correlate with earthquake association. Managing injection rates may be a useful tool to minimize the likelihood of induced earthquakes.

Science↗
USGS2014

Coseismic landslides reveal near-surface rock strength in a high-relief tectonically active setting

We present quantitative estimates of near-surface rock strength relevant to landscape evolution and landslide hazard assessment for 15 geologic map units of the Longmen Shan, China. Strength estimates are derived from a novel method that inverts earthquake peak ground acceleration models and coseismic landslide inventories to obtain material proper- ties and landslide thickness. Aggregate rock strength is determined by prescribing a friction angle of 30&deg; and solving for effective cohesion. Effective cohesion ranges are from 70 kPa to 107 kPa for 15 geologic map units, and are approximately an order of magnitude less than typical laboratory measurements, probably because laboratory tests on hand-sized specimens do not incorporate the effects of heterogeneity and fracturing that likely control near-surface strength at the hillslope scale. We find that strength among the geologic map units studied varies by less than a factor of two. However, increased weakening of units with proximity to the range front, where precipitation and active fault density are the greatest, suggests that cli- matic and tectonic factors overwhelm lithologic differences in rock strength in this high-relief tectonically active setting.

Geology↗
USGS2014

New insights into debris-flow hazards from an extraordinary event in the Colorado Front Range

Rainfall on 9–13 September 2013 triggered at least 1,138 debris flows in a 3430 km2 area of the Colorado Front Range. The historical record reveals that the occurrence of these flows over such a large area in the interior of North America is highly unusual. Rainfall that triggered the debris flows began after ~75 mm of antecedent rain had fallen, a relatively low amount compared to other parts of the United States. Most flows were triggered in response to two intense rainfall periods, one 12.5-hour-long period on 11–12 September, and one 8-hour-long period on 12 September. The maximum 10 min. intensities during these periods were 67 and 39 mm/hr. Ninety-five percent of flows initiated in canyons and on hogbacks at elevations lower than a widespread erosion surface of low slope and relief (<2600 m). These flows were on steep (>25°), predominantly south- and east-facing slopes with upslope contributing areas <3300 m2. Flows with the largest scars and longest travel distances occurred at elevations above 2600 m on steep slopes with contributing areas >3300 m2. Areal concentrations of debris flows revealed that colluvial soils formed on sedimentary rocks were more susceptible to flows than soils on crystalline rocks. This event should serve as an alert to government authorities, emergency responders, and residents in the Front Range and other interior continental areas with steep slopes. Widespread debris flows in these areas occur infrequently but may pose a greater risk than in areas with shorter return periods, because the public is typically unprepared for them.

Colorado, Wyoming↗
USGS2014

Plenary: Progress in Regional Landslide Hazard Assessment—Examples from the USA

Landslide hazard assessment at local and regional scales contributes to mitigation of landslides in developing and densely populated areas by providing information for (1) land development and redevelopment plans and regulations, (2) emergency preparedness plans, and (3) economic analysis to (a) set priorities for engineered mitigation projects and (b) define areas of similar levels of hazard for insurance purposes. US Geological Survey (USGS) research on landslide hazard assessment has explored a range of methods that can be used to estimate temporal and spatial landslide potential and probability for various scales and purposes. Cases taken primarily from our work in the U.S. Pacific Northwest illustrate and compare a sampling of methods, approaches, and progress. For example, landform mapping using high-resolution topographic data resulted in identification of about four times more landslides in Seattle, Washington, than previous efforts using aerial photography. Susceptibility classes based on the landforms captured 93 % of all historical landslides (all types) throughout the city. A deterministic model for rainfall infiltration and shallow landslide initiation, TRIGRS, was able to identify locations of 92 % of historical shallow landslides in southwest Seattle. The potentially unstable areas identified by TRIGRS occupied only 26 % of the slope areas steeper than 20°. Addition of an unsaturated infiltration model to TRIGRS expands the applicability of the model to areas of highly permeable soils. Replacement of the single cell, 1D factor of safety with a simple 3D method of columns improves accuracy of factor of safety predictions for both saturated and unsaturated infiltration models. A 3D deterministic model for large, deep landslides, SCOOPS, combined with a three-dimensional model for groundwater flow, successfully predicted instability in steep areas of permeable outwash sand and topographic reentrants. These locations are consistent with locations of large, deep, historically active landslides. For an area in Seattle, a composite of the three maps illustrates how maps produced by different approaches might be combined to assess overall landslide potential. Examples from Oregon, USA, illustrate how landform mapping and deterministic analysis for shallow landslide potential have been adapted into standardized methods for efficiently producing detailed landslide inventory and shallow landslide susceptibility maps that have consistent content and format statewide.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2014

Evaluating a slope-stability model for shallow rain-induced landslides using gage and satellite data

Improving prediction of landslide early warning systems requires accurate estimation of the conditions that trigger slope failures. This study tested a slope-stability model for shallow rainfall-induced landslides by utilizing rainfall information from gauge and satellite records. We used the TRIGRS model (Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-based Regional Slope-stability analysis) for simulating the evolution of the factor of safety due to rainfall infiltration. Using a spatial subset of a well-characterized digital landscape from an earlier study, we considered shallow failure on a slope adjoining an urban transportation roadway near the Seattle area in Washington, USA. We ran the TRIGRS model using high-quality rain gage and satellite-based rainfall data from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM). Preliminary results with parameterized soil depth values suggest that the steeper slope values in this spatial domain have factor of safety values that are extremely close to the failure limit within an extremely narrow range of values, providing multiple false alarms. When the soil depths were constrained using a back analysis procedure to ensure that slopes were stable under initial condtions, the model accurately predicted the timing and location of the landslide observation without false alarms over time for gage rain data. The TRMM satellite rainfall data did not show adequately retreived rainfall peak magnitudes and accumulation over the study period, and as a result failed to predict the landslide event. These preliminary results indicate that more accurate and higher-resolution rain data (e.g., the upcoming Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission) are required to provide accurate and reliable landslide predictions in ungaged basins.

Book chapter↗
USGS2014

Hysteresis and uncertainty in soil water-retention curve parameters

Accurate estimates of soil hydraulic parameters representing wetting and drying paths are required for predicting hydraulic and mechanical responses in a large number of applications. A comprehensive suite of laboratory experiments was conducted to measure hysteretic soil-water characteristic curves (SWCCs) representing a wide range of soil types. Results were used to quantitatively assess differences and uncertainty in three simplifications frequently adopted to estimate wetting-path SWCC parameters from more easily measured drying curves. They are the following: (1) α w =2α d , (2) n w =n d , and (3) θ w s =θ d s , where α, n, and θ s are fitting parameters entering van Genuchten’s commonly adopted SWCC model, and the superscripts w and d indicate wetting and drying paths, respectively. The average ratio αw/αd for the data set was 2.24±1.25. Nominally cohesive soils had a lower α w /α d ratio (1.73±0.94) than nominally cohesionless soils (3.14±1.27). The average n w /n d ratio was 1.01±0.11 with no significant dependency on soil type, thus confirming the n w =n d simplification for a wider range of soil types than previously available. Water content at zero suction during wetting (θ w s ) was consistently less than during drying (θ d s ) owing to air entrapment. The θ w s /θ d s ratio averaged 0.85±0.10 and was comparable for nominally cohesive (0.87±0.11) and cohesionless (0.81±0.08) soils. Regression statistics are provided to quantitatively account for uncertainty in estimating hysteretic retention curves. Practical consequences are demonstrated for two case studies.

Journal of Geotechnical and Geoenvironmental Engin↗
USGS2014

Interrelations among the soil-water retention, hydraulic conductivity, and suction-stress characteristic curves

The three fundamental constitutive relations that describe fluid flow, strength, and deformation behavior of variably saturated soils are the soil-water retention curve (SWRC), hydraulic conductivity function (HCF), and suction-stress characteristic curve (SSCC). Until recently, the interrelations among the SWRC, HCF, and SSCC have not been well established. This work sought experimental confirmation of interrelations among these three constitutive functions. Results taken from the literature for six soils and those obtained for 11 different soils were used. Using newly established analytical relations among the SWRC, HCF, and SSCC and these test results, the authors showed that these three constitutive relations can be defined by a common set of hydromechanical parameters. The coefficient of determination for air-entry pressures determined independently using hydraulic and mechanical methods is >0.99, >0.98 for the pore size parameter, and 0.94 for the residual degree of saturation. One practical implication is that one of any of the four experiments (axis-translation, hydraulic, shear-strength, or deformation) is sufficient to quantify all three constitutive relations.

Journal of Geotechnical and Geoenvironmental Engin↗
USGS2014

Experimental test of theory for the stability of partially saturated vertical cut slopes

This paper extends Culmann's vertical-cut analysis to unsaturated soils. To test the extended theory, unsaturated sand was compacted to a uniform porosity and moisture content in a laboratory apparatus. A sliding door that extended the height of the free face of the slope was lowered until the vertical cut failed. Digital images of the slope cross section and upper surface were acquired concurrently. A recently developed particle image velocimetry (PIV) tool was used to quantify soil displacement. The PIV analysis showed strain localization at varying distances from the sliding door prior to failure. The areas of localized strain were coincident with the location of the slope crest after failure. Shear-strength and soil-water-characteristic parameters of the sand were independently tested for use in extended analyses of the vertical-cut stability and of the failure plane angle. Experimental failure heights were within 22.3% of the heights predicted using the extended theory.

Journal of Geotechnical and Geoenvironmental Engin↗
USGS2014

Landslides in the northern Colorado Front Range caused by rainfall, September 11-13, 2013

During the second week of September 2013, nearly continuous rainfall caused widespread landslides and flooding in the northern Colorado Front Range. The combination of landslides and flooding was responsible for eight fatalities and caused extensive damage to buildings, highways, and infrastructure. Three fatalities were attributed to a fast moving type of landslide called debris flow. One fatality occurred in Jamestown, and two occurred in the community of Pinebrook Hills immediately west of the City of Boulder. All major canyon roads in the northern Front Range were periodically closed between September 11 and 13, 2013. Some canyon closures were caused by undercutting of roads by landslides and flooding, and some were caused by debris flows and rock slides that deposited material on road surfaces. Most of the canyon roads, with the exceptions of U.S. Highway 6 (Clear Creek Canyon), State Highway 46/Jefferson Co. Rd. 70 (Golden Gate Canyon), and Sunshine Canyon in Boulder County, remained closed at the end of September 2013. A review of historical records in Colorado indicates that this type of event, with widespread landslides and flooding occurring over a very large region, in such a short period of time, is rare.

Colorado↗
USGS2014

Hydrologic monitoring of a landslide-prone hillslope in the Elliott State Forest, Southern Coast Range, Oregon, 2009-2012

The Oregon Coast Range is dissected by numerous unchanneled headwater basins, which can generate shallow landslides and debris flows during heavy or prolonged rainfall. An automated monitoring system was installed in an unchanneled headwater basin to measure rainfall, volumetric water content, groundwater temperature, and pore pressures at 15-minute intervals. The purpose of this report is to describe and present the methods used for the monitoring as well as the preliminary data collected during the period from 2009 to 2012. Observations show a pronounced seasonal variation in volumetric water content and pore pressures. Increases in pore pressures and volumetric water content from dry-season values begin with the onset of the rainy season in the fall (typically early to mid October). High water contents and pore pressures tend to persist throughout the rainy season, which typically ends in May. Heavy or prolonged rainfall during the wet season that falls on already moist soils often generates positive pore pressures that are observed in the deeper instruments. These data provide a record of the basin’s hydrologic response to rainfall and provide a foundation for understanding the conditions that lead to landslide and debris-flow occurrence.

Oregon↗
USGS2013

U.S. Geological Survey natural hazards science strategy— Promoting the safety, security, and economic well-being of the Nation

Executive Summary The mission of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in natural hazards is to develop and apply hazard science to help protect the safety, security, and economic well-being of the Nation. The costs and consequences of natural hazards can be enormous, and each year more people and infrastructure are at risk. USGS scientific research—founded on detailed observations and improved understanding of the responsible physical processes—can help to understand and reduce natural hazard risks and to make and effectively communicate reliable statements about hazard characteristics, such as frequency, magnitude, extent, onset, consequences, and where possible, the time of future events. To accomplish its broad hazard mission, the USGS maintains an expert workforce of scientists and technicians in the earth sciences, hydrology, biology, geography, social and behavioral sciences, and other fields, and engages cooperatively with numerous agencies, research institutions, and organizations in the public and private sectors, across the Nation and around the world. The scientific expertise required to accomplish the USGS mission in natural hazards includes a wide range of disciplines that this report refers to, in aggregate, as hazard science. In October 2010, the Natural Hazards Science Strategy Planning Team (H–SSPT) was charged with developing a long-term (10-year) Science Strategy for the USGS mission in natural hazards. This report fulfills that charge, with a document hereinafter referred to as the Strategy, to provide scientific observations, analyses, and research that are critical for the Nation to become more resilient to natural hazards. Science provides the information that decisionmakers need to determine whether risk management activities are worthwhile. Moreover, as the agency with the perspective of geologic time, the USGS is uniquely positioned to extend the collective experience of society to prepare for events outside current memory. The USGS has critical statutory and nonstatutory roles regarding floods, earthquakes, tsunamis, landslides, coastal erosion, volcanic eruptions, wildfires, and magnetic storms—the hazards considered in this plan. There are numerous other hazards of societal importance that are considered either only peripherally or not at all in this Strategy because they are either in another of the USGS strategic science plans (such as drought) or not in the overall mission of the USGS (such as tornados).

Circular↗
USGS2013

Hysteresis of unsaturated hydromechanical properties of a silty soil

Laboratory tests to examine hysteresis in the hydrologic and mechanical properties of partially saturated soils were conducted on six intact specimens collected from a landslide-prone area of Alameda County, California. The results reveal that the pore-size distribution parameter remains statistically unchanged between the wetting and drying paths; however, the wetting or drying state has a pronounced influence on the water-entry pressure, the water-filled porosity at zero suction, and the saturated hydraulic conductivity. The suction stress values obtained from the shear-strength tests under both natural moisture and resaturated conditions were mostly bounded by the suction stress characteristic curves (SSCCs) obtained from the hydrologic tests. This finding experimentally confirms that the soil-water retention curve, hydraulic conductivity function, and SSCC are intrinsically related.

Journal of Geotechnical and Geoenvironmental Engin↗
USGS2012

Analysis of rainfall-induced slope instability using a field of local factor of safety

Slope-stability analyses are mostly conducted by identifying or assuming a potential failure surface and assessing the factor of safety (FS) of that surface. This approach of assigning a single FS to a potentially unstable slope provides little insight on where the failure initiates or the ultimate geometry and location of a landslide rupture surface. We describe a method to quantify a scalar field of FS based on the concept of the Coulomb stress and the shift in the state of stress toward failure that results from rainfall infiltration. The FS at each point within a hillslope is called the local factor of safety (LFS) and is defined as the ratio of the Coulomb stress at the current state of stress to the Coulomb stress of the potential failure state under the Mohr-Coulomb criterion. Comparative assessment with limit-equilibrium and hybrid finite element limit-equilibrium methods show that the proposed LFS is consistent with these approaches and yields additional insight into the geometry and location of the potential failure surface and how instability may initiate and evolve with changes in pore water conditions. Quantitative assessments applying the new LFS field method to slopes under infiltration conditions demonstrate that the LFS has the potential to overcome several major limitations in the classical FS methodologies such as the shape of the failure surface and the inherent underestimation of slope instability. Comparison with infinite-slope methods, including a recent extension to variably saturated conditions, shows further enhancement in assessing shallow landslide occurrence using the LFS methodology. Although we use only a linear elastic solution for the state of stress with no post-failure analysis that require more sophisticated elastoplastic or other theories, the LFS provides a new means to quantify the potential instability zones in hillslopes under variably saturated conditions using stress-field based methods.

Water Resources Research↗
USGS2012

Deterministic estimation of hydrological thresholds for shallow landslide initiation and slope stability models: case study from the Somma-Vesuvius area of southern Italy

Rainfall-induced debris flows involving ash-fall pyroclastic deposits that cover steep mountain slopes surrounding the Somma-Vesuvius volcano are natural events and a source of risk for urban settlements located at footslopes in the area. This paper describes experimental methods and modelling results of shallow landslides that occurred on 5–6 May 1998 in selected areas of the Sarno Mountain Range. Stratigraphical surveys carried out in initiation areas show that ash-fall pyroclastic deposits are discontinuously distributed along slopes, with total thicknesses that vary from a maximum value on slopes inclined less than 30° to near zero thickness on slopes inclined greater than 50°. This distribution of cover thickness influences the stratigraphical setting and leads to downward thinning and the pinching out of pyroclastic horizons. Three engineering geological settings were identified, in which most of the initial landslides that triggered debris flows occurred in May 1998 can be classified as (1) knickpoints, characterised by a downward progressive thinning of the pyroclastic mantle; (2) rocky scarps that abruptly interrupt the pyroclastic mantle; and (3) road cuts in the pyroclastic mantle that occur in a critical range of slope angle. Detailed topographic and stratigraphical surveys coupled with field and laboratory tests were conducted to define geometric, hydraulic and mechanical features of pyroclastic soil horizons in the source areas and to carry out hydrological numerical modelling of hillslopes under different rainfall conditions. The slope stability for three representative cases was calculated considering the real sliding surface of the initial landslides and the pore pressures during the infiltration process. The hydrological modelling of hillslopes demonstrated localised increase of pore pressure, up to saturation, where pyroclastic horizons with higher hydraulic conductivity pinch out and the thickness of pyroclastic mantle reduces or is interrupted. These results lead to the identification of a comprehensive hydrogeomorphological model of susceptibility to initial landslides that links morphological, stratigraphical and hydrological conditions. The calculation of intensities and durations of rainfall necessary for slope instability allowed the identification of deterministic hydrological thresholds that account for uncertainty in properties and observed rainfall intensities.

Landslides↗
USGS2012

Stability of infinite slopes under transient partially saturated seepage conditions

Prediction of the location and timing of rainfall‐induced shallow landslides is desired by organizations responsible for hazard management and warnings. However, hydrologic and mechanical processes in the vadose zone complicate such predictions. Infiltrating rainfall must typically pass through an unsaturated layer before reaching the irregular and usually discontinuous shallow water table. This process is dynamic and a function of precipitation intensity and duration, the initial moisture conditions and hydrologic properties of the hillside materials, and the geometry, stratigraphy, and vegetation of the hillslope. As a result, pore water pressures, volumetric water content, effective stress, and thus the propensity for landsliding vary over seasonal and shorter time scales. We apply a general framework for assessing the stability of infinite slopes under transient variably saturated conditions. The framework includes profiles of pressure head and volumetric water content combined with a general effective stress for slope stability analysis. The general effective stress, or suction stress, provides a means for rigorous quantification of stress changes due to rainfall and infiltration and thus the analysis of slope stability over the range of volumetric water contents and pressure heads relevant to shallow landslide initiation. We present results using an analytical solution for transient infiltration for a range of soil texture and hydrological properties typical of landslide‐prone hillslopes and show the effect of these properties on the timing and depth of slope failure. We follow by analyzing field‐monitoring data acquired prior to shallow landslide failure of a hillside near Seattle, Washington, and show that the timing of the slide was predictable using measured pressure head and volumetric water content and show how the approach can be used in a forward manner using a numerical model for transient infiltration.

Water Resources Research↗