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Jonathan W. Godt

Publications and source records attributed to Jonathan W. Godt.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

Strong variation in weathering of layered rock maintains hillslope‐scale strength under high precipitation

The evolution of volcanic landscapes and their landslide potential are both dependent upon the weathering of layered volcanic rock sequences. We characterize critical zone structure using shallow seismic V p and V s profiles and vertical exposures of rock across a basaltic climosequence on Kohala peninsula, Hawai’i, and exploit the dramatic gradient in mean annual precipitation (MAP) across the peninsula as a proxy for weathering intensity. Seismic velocity increases rapidly with depth and the velocity–depth gradient is uniform across three sites with 500–600 mm/yr MAP, where the transition to unaltered bedrock occurs at a depth of 4 to 10 m. In contrast, velocity increases with depth less rapidly at wetter sites, but this gradient remains constant across increasing MAP from 1000 to 3000 mm/yr and the transition to unaltered bedrock is near the maximum depth of investigation (15–25 m). In detail, the profiles of seismic velocity and of weathering at wet sites are nowhere monotonic functions of depth. The uniform average velocity gradient and the greater depths of low velocities may be explained by the averaging of velocities over intercalated highly weathered sites with less weathered layers at sites where MAP > 1000 mm/yr. Hence, the main effect of climate is not the progressive deepening of a near‐surface altered layer, but rather the rapid weathering of high permeability zones within rock subjected to precipitation greater than ~1000 mm/yr. Although weathering suggests mechanical weakening, the nearly horizontal orientation of alternating weathered and unweathered horizons with respect to topography also plays a role in the slope stability of these heterogeneous rock masses. We speculate that where steep, rapidly evolving hillslopes exist, the sub‐horizontal orientation of weak/strong horizons allows such sites to remain nearly as strong as their less weathered counterparts at drier sites, as is exemplified by the 50°–60° slopes maintained in the amphitheater canyons on the northwest flank of the island.

Hawai'i↗

Variability in soil-water retention properties and implications for physics-based simulation of landslide early warning criteria

Rainfall-induced shallow landsliding is a persistent hazard to human life and property. Despite the observed connection between infiltration through the unsaturated zone and shallow landslide initiation, there is considerable uncertainty in how estimates of unsaturated soil-water retention properties affect slope stability assessment. This source of uncertainty is critical to evaluating the utility of physics-based hydrologic modeling as a tool for landslide early warning. We employ a numerical model of variably saturated groundwater flow parameterized with an ensemble of texture-, laboratory-, and field-based estimates of soil-water retention properties for an extensively monitored landslide-prone site in the San Francisco Bay Area, CA, USA. Simulations of soil-water content, pore-water pressure, and the resultant factor of safety show considerable variability across and within these different parameter estimation techniques. In particular, we demonstrate that with the same permeability structure imposed across all simulations, the variability in soil-water retention properties strongly influences predictions of positive pore-water pressure coincident with widespread shallow landsliding. We also find that the ensemble of soil-water retention properties imposes an order-of-magnitude and nearly two-fold variability in seasonal and event-scale landslide susceptibility, respectively. Despite the reduced factor of safety uncertainty during wet conditions, parameters that control the dry end of the soil-water retention function markedly impact the ability of a hydrologic model to capture soil-water content dynamics observed in the field. These results suggest that variability in soil-water retention properties should be considered for objective physics-based simulation of landslide early warning criteria.

Landslides↗

The size, distribution, and mobility of landslides caused by the 2015 Mw7.8 Gorkha earthquake, Nepal

Coseismic landslides pose immediate and prolonged hazards to mountainous communities, and provide a rare opportunity to study the effect of large earthquakes on erosion and sediment budgets. By mapping landslides using high-resolution satellite imagery, we find that the 25 April 2015 M w 7.8 Gorkha earthquake and aftershock sequence produced at least 25,000 landslides throughout the steep Himalayan Mountains in central Nepal. Despite early reports claiming lower than expected landslide activity, our results show that the total number, area, and volume of landslides associated with the Gorkha event are consistent with expectations, when compared to prior landslide-triggering earthquakes around the world. The extent of landsliding mimics the extent of fault rupture along the east-west trace of the Main Himalayan Thrust and increases eastward following the progression of rupture. In this event, maximum modeled Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) and the steepest topographic slopes of the High Himalaya are not spatially coincident, so it is not surprising that landslide density correlates neither with PGA nor steepest slopes on their own. Instead, we find that the highest landslide density is located at the confluence of steep slopes, high mean annual precipitation, and proximity to the deepest part of the fault rupture from which 0.5–2 Hz seismic energy originated. We suggest that landslide density was determined by a combination of earthquake source characteristics, slope distributions, and the influence of precipitation on rock strength via weathering and changes in vegetation cover. Determining the relative contribution of each factor will require further modeling and better constrained seismic parameters, both of which are likely to be developed in the coming few years as post-event studies evolve. Landslide mobility, in terms of the ratio of runout distance to fall height, is comparable to small volume landslides in other settings, and landslide volume-runout scaling is consistent with compilations of data on larger slope failures. In general, the size ratios of landslide source area to full landslide area are smaller than global averages, and hillslope length seems to largely control runout distance, which we propose reflects a topographic control on landslide mobility in this setting. We find that landslide size dictates runout distance and that more than half of the landslide debris was deposited in direct connection with stream channels. Connectivity, which is defined as the spatial proximity of landslides to fluvial channels, is greatest for larger landslides in the high-relief part of the High Himalaya. Although these failures are less abundant than those at lower elevations, they may have a disproportionate impact on sediment dynamics and cascading hazards, such as landslide reactivation by monsoon rainfall and landslide dams that lead to outburst floods. The overall high fluvial connectivity of coseismic landsliding in the Gorkha event suggests coupling between the earthquake cycle and sediment/geochemical budgets of fluvial systems in the Himalaya.

Geomorphology↗

Tropical storm-induced landslide potential using combined field monitoring and numerical modeling

When heavy rainfall, such as that associated with tropical storms, falls on steep hillsides, shallow landslides are often one of the damaging consequences. To assess landslide potential from heavy rainfall, a strategy of combined numerical simulation and field monitoring of variably saturated hillslope conditions is developed. To test the combined method, hillslope hydrologic data from paired field monitoring sites in western North Carolina are examined. The hydrologic data collected from the field monitoring site where no shallow landslide has occurred is used to identify and calibrate the hydromechanical parameters used in a numerical ground water flow model. The identified parameters are then used to simulate landslide potential at the two hillslopes during heavy rainfall associated with hurricanes Frances and Ivan (HFI) that impacted western North Carolina in 2004. Results identify the timing of instability at the shallow landslide site and show that the stable site remains stable during rainfall associated with the HFI tropical storms. Thus, the results demonstrate the effectiveness of combined numerical modeling and field monitoring to evaluate landslide potential under variably saturated conditions.

North Carolina↗

An open repository of earthquake-triggered ground-failure inventories

Earthquake-triggered ground failure, such as landsliding and liquefaction, can contribute significantly to losses, but our current ability to accurately include them in earthquake-hazard analyses is limited. The development of robust and widely applicable models requires access to numerous inventories of ground failures triggered by earthquakes that span a broad range of terrains, shaking characteristics, and climates. We present an openly accessible, centralized earthquake-triggered groundfailure inventory repository in the form of a ScienceBase Community to provide open access to these data with the goal of accelerating research progress. The ScienceBase Community hosts digital inventories created by both U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and non-USGS authors. We present the original digital inventory files (when available) as well as an integrated database with uniform attributes. We also summarize the mapping methodology and level of completeness as reported by the original author(s) for each inventory. This document describes the steps taken to collect, process, and compile the inventories and the process for adding additional ground-failure inventories to the ScienceBase Community in the future.

Data Series↗

Presentation and analysis of a worldwide database of earthquake-induced landslide inventories

Earthquake-induced landslide (EQIL) inventories are essential tools to extend our knowledge of the relationship between earthquakes and the landslides they can trigger. Regrettably, such inventories are difficult to generate and therefore scarce, and the available ones differ in terms of their quality and level of completeness. Moreover, access to existing EQIL inventories is currently difficult because there is no centralized database. To address these issues, we compiled EQIL inventories from around the globe based on an extensive literature study. The database contains information on 363 landslide-triggering earthquakes and includes 66 digital landslide inventories. To make these data openly available, we created a repository to host the digital inventories that we have permission to redistribute through the U.S. Geological Survey ScienceBase platform. It can grow over time as more authors contribute their inventories. We analyze the distribution of EQIL events by time period and location, more specifically breaking down the distribution by continent, country, and mountain region. Additionally, we analyze frequency distributions of EQIL characteristics, such as the approximate area affected by landslides, total number of landslides, maximum distance from fault rupture zone, and distance from epicenter when the fault plane location is unknown. For the available digital EQIL inventories, we examine the underlying characteristics of landslide size, topographic slope, roughness, local relief, distance to streams, peak ground acceleration, peak ground velocity, and Modified Mercalli Intensity. Also, we present an evaluation system to help users assess the suitability of the available inventories for different types of EQIL studies and model development.

Journal of Geophysical Research F: Earth Surface↗

Results of hydrologic monitoring of a landslide-prone hillslope in Portland’s West Hills, Oregon, 2006–2017

The West Hills of Portland, in the southern Tualatin Mountains, trend northwest along the west side of Portland, Oregon. These silt-mantled mountains receive significant wet-season precipitation and are prone to sliding during wet conditions, occasionally resulting in property damage or casualties. In an effort to develop a baseline for interpretive analysis of the groundwater response to rainfall, an automated monitoring system was installed in 2006 to measure rainfall, pore-water pressure, soil suction, soil-water potential, and volumetric water content at 15-minute intervals. The data show a cyclical pattern of groundwater and moisture content levels—wet from October to May and dry between June and September. Saturated soil conditions tend to last throughout the wet season. These data show the hydrologic response of the monitored area to rainfall and provide insight into the dynamics of rainfall-initiated landsliding. This report details the monitoring methods and presents data collected from January 10, 2006, through January 23, 2017.

Oregon↗

Application and evaluation of a rapid response earthquake-triggered landslide model to the 25 April 2015 Mw 7.8 Gorkha earthquake, Nepal

The 25 April 2015 M w 7.8 Gorkha earthquake produced strong ground motions across an approximately 250 km by 100 km swath in central Nepal. To assist disaster response activities, we modified an existing earthquake-triggered landslide model based on a Newmark sliding block analysis to estimate the extent and intensity of landsliding and landslide dam hazard. Landslide hazard maps were produced using Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) digital topography, peak ground acceleration (PGA) information from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) ShakeMap program, and assumptions about the regional rock strength based on end-member values from previous studies. The instrumental record of seismicity in Nepal is poor, so PGA estimates were based on empirical Ground Motion Prediction Equations (GMPEs) constrained by teleseismic data and felt reports. We demonstrate a non-linear dependence of modeled landsliding on aggregate rock strength, where the number of landslides decreases exponentially with increasing rock strength. Model estimates are less sensitive to PGA at steep slopes (> 60°) compared to moderate slopes (30–60°). We compare forward model results to an inventory of landslides triggered by the Gorkha earthquake. We show that moderate rock strength inputs over estimate landsliding in regions beyond the main slip patch, which may in part be related to poorly constrained PGA estimates for this event at far distances from the source area. Directly above the main slip patch, however, the moderate strength model accurately estimates the total number of landslides within the resolution of the model (landslides ≥ 0.0162 km 2 ; observed n = 2214, modeled n = 2987), but the pattern of landsliding differs from observations. This discrepancy is likely due to the unaccounted for effects of variable material strength and local topographic amplification of strong ground motion, as well as other simplifying assumptions about source characteristics and their relationship to landsliding.

Tectonophysics↗

Evolution of strain localization in variable-width three-dimensional unsaturated laboratory-scale cut slopes

To experimentally validate a recently developed theory for predicting the stability of cut slopes under unsaturated conditions, the authors measured increasing strain localization in unsaturated slope cuts prior to abrupt failure. Cut slope width and moisture content were controlled and varied in a laboratory, and a sliding door that extended the height of the free face of the slope was lowered until the cut slope failed. A particle image velocimetry tool was used to quantify soil displacement in the x - y "> x - y (horizontal) and x - z "> x -z (vertical) planes, and strain was calculated from the displacement. Areas of maximum strain localization prior to failure were shown to coincide with the location of the eventual failure plane. Experimental failure heights agreed with the recently developed stability theory for unsaturated cut slopes (within 14.3% relative error) for a range of saturation and cut slope widths. A theoretical threshold for sidewall influence on cut slope failures was also proposed to quantify the relationship between normalized sidewall width and critical height. The proposed relationship was consistent with the cut slope experiment results, and is intended for consideration in future geotechnical experiment design. The experimental data of evolution of strain localization presented herein provide a physical basis from which future numerical models of strain localization can be validated.

Journal of Engineering Mechanics↗

Effect of hydraulic hysteresis on the stability of infinite slopes under steady infiltration

Hydraulic hysteresis, including capillary soil water retention (SWR), air entrapment SWR, and hydraulic conductivity, is a common phenomenon in unsaturated soils. However, the influence of hydraulic hysteresis on suction stress, and subsequently slope stability, is generally ignored. This paper examines the influence of each of these three types of hysteresis on slope stability using an infinite slope stability analysis under steady infiltration conditions. First, hypothetical slopes for representative silty and sandy soils are examined. Then a monitored hillslope in the San Francisco Bay Area, California is assessed, using observed rainfall conditions and measured hydraulic and geotechnical properties of the colluvial soil. Results show that profiles of suction stress and the corresponding factor of safety are generally strongly affected by hydraulic hysteresis. Results suggest that each of the three types of hydraulic hysteresis may play a major role in the occurrence of slope failure, indicating that ignoring hydraulic hysteresis will likely lead to underestimates of failure potential and hence to inaccurate slope stability analysis.

Journal of Geotechnical and Geoenvironmental Engin↗

The influence of vegetation cover on debris-flow density during an extreme rainfall in the northern Colorado Front Range

We explored regional influences on debris-flow initiation throughout the Colorado Front Range (Colorado, USA) by exploiting a unique data set of more than 1100 debris flows that initiated during a 5 day rainstorm in 2013. Using geospatial data, we examined the influence of rain, hillslope angle, hillslope aspect, and vegetation density on debris-flow initiation. In particular we used a greenness index to differentiate areas of high tree density from grass and bare soil. The data demonstrated an overwhelming propensity for debris-flow initiation on south-facing hillslopes. However, when the debris-flow density was analyzed with respect to total rainfall and greenness we found that most debris flows occurred in areas of high rainfall and low tree density, regardless of hillslope aspect. These results indicate that present-day tree density exerts a stronger influence on debris-flow initiation locations than aspect-driven variations in soil and bedrock properties that developed over longer time scales.

Geology↗

Elucidating the role of vegetation in the initiation of rainfall-induced shallow landslides: Insights from an extreme rainfall event in the Colorado Front Range

More than 1100 debris flows were mobilized from shallow landslides during a rainstorm from 9 to 13 September 2013 in the Colorado Front Range, with the vast majority initiating on sparsely vegetated, south facing terrain. To investigate the physical processes responsible for the observed aspect control, we made measurements of soil properties on a densely forested north facing hillslope and a grassland-dominated south facing hillslope in the Colorado Front Range and performed numerical modeling of transient changes in soil pore water pressure throughout the rainstorm. Using the numerical model, we quantitatively assessed interactions among vegetation, rainfall interception, subsurface hydrology, and slope stability. Results suggest that apparent cohesion supplied by roots was responsible for the observed connection between debris flow initiation and slope aspect. Results suggest that future climate-driven modifications to forest structure could substantially influence landslide hazards throughout the Front Range and similar water-limited environments where vegetation communities may be more susceptible to small variations in climate.

Geophysical Research Letters↗

Geomorphological control on variably saturated hillslope hydrology and slope instability

In steep topography, the processes governing variably saturated subsurface hydrologic response and the interparticle stresses leading to shallow landslide initiation are physically linked. However, these processes are usually analyzed separately. Here, we take a combined approach, simultaneously analyzing the influence of topography on both hillslope hydrology and the effective stress fields within the hillslope itself. Clearly, runoff and saturated groundwater flow are dominated by gravity and, ultimately, by topography. Less clear is how landscape morphology influences flows in the vadose zone, where transient fluxes are usually taken to be vertical. We aim to assess and quantify the impact of topography on both saturated and unsaturated hillslope hydrology and its effects on shallow slope stability. Three real hillslope morphologies (concave, convex, and planar) are analyzed using a 3-D, physically based, distributed model coupled with a module for computation of the probability of failure, based on the infinite slope assumption. The results of the analyses, which included parameter uncertainty analysis of the results themselves, show that convex and planar slopes are more stable than concave slopes. Specifically, under the same initial, boundary, and infiltration conditions, the percentage of unstable areas ranges from 1.3% for the planar hillslope, 21% for convex, to a maximum value of 33% for the concave morphology. The results are supported by a sensitivity analysis carried out to examine the effect of initial conditions and rainfall intensity.

Water Resources Research↗

USGS approach to real-time estimation of earthquake-triggered ground failure - Results of 2015 workshop

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards and Landslide Hazards Programs are developing plans to add quantitative hazard assessments of earthquake-triggered landsliding and liquefaction to existing real-time earthquake products (ShakeMap, ShakeCast, PAGER) using open and readily available methodologies and products. To date, prototype global statistical models have been developed and are being refined, improved, and tested. These models are a good foundation, but much work remains to achieve robust and defensible models that meet the needs of end users. In order to establish an implementation plan and identify research priorities, the USGS convened a workshop in Golden, Colorado, in October 2015. This document summarizes current (as of early 2016) capabilities, research and operational priorities, and plans for further studies that were established at this workshop. Specific priorities established during the meeting include (1) developing a suite of alternative models; (2) making use of higher resolution and higher quality data where possible; (3) incorporating newer global and regional datasets and inventories; (4) reducing barriers to accessing inventory datasets; (5) developing methods for using inconsistent or incomplete datasets in aggregate; (6) developing standardized model testing and evaluation methods; (7) improving ShakeMap shaking estimates, particularly as relevant to ground failure, such as including topographic amplification and accounting for spatial variability; and (8) developing vulnerability functions for loss estimates.

Open-File Report↗

Application of a process-based shallow landslide hazard model over a broad area in Central Italy

Process-based models are widely used for rainfall-induced shallow landslide forecasting. Previous studies have successfully applied the U.S. Geological Survey’s Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-Based Regional Slope-Stability (TRIGRS) model (Baum et al. 2002 ) to compute infiltration-driven changes in the hillslopes’ factor of safety on small scales (i.e., tens of square kilometers). Soil data input for such models are difficult to obtain across larger regions. This work describes a novel methodology for the application of TRIGRS over broad areas with relatively uniform hydrogeological properties. The study area is a 550-km 2 region in Central Italy covered by post-orogenic Quaternary sediments. Due to the lack of field data, we assigned mechanical and hydrological property values through a statistical analysis based on literature review of soils matching the local lithologies. We calibrated the model using rainfall data from 25 historical rainfall events that triggered landslides. We compared the variation of pressure head and factor of safety with the landslide occurrence to identify the best fitting input conditions. Using calibrated inputs and a soil depth model, we ran TRIGRS for the study area. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis, comparing the model’s output with a shallow landslide inventory, shows that TRIGRS effectively simulated the instability conditions in the post-orogenic complex during historical rainfall scenarios. The implication of this work is that rainfall-induced landslides over large regions may be predicted by a deterministic model, even where data on geotechnical and hydraulic properties as well as temporal changes in topography or subsurface conditions are not available.

Esino river basin, Marche region↗

Effect of antecedent-hydrological conditions on rainfall triggering of debris flows in ash-fall pyroclastic mantled slopes of Campania (southern Italy)

Mountainous areas surrounding the Campanian Plain and the Somma-Vesuvius volcano (southern Italy) are among the most risky areas of Italy due to the repeated occurrence of rainfallinduced debris flows along ash-fall pyroclastic soil-mantled slopes. In this geomorphological framework, rainfall patterns, hydrological processes taking place within multi-layered ash-fall pyroclastic deposits and soil antecedent moisture status are the principal factors to be taken into account to assess triggering rainfall conditions and the related hazard. This paper presents the outcomes of an experimental study based on integrated analyses consisting of the reconstruction of physical models of landslides, in situ hydrological monitoring, and hydrological and slope stability modeling, carried out on four representative source areas of debris flows that occurred in May 1998 in the Sarno Mountain Range. The hydrological monitoring was carried out during 2011 using nests of tensiometers and Watermark pressure head sensors and also through a rainfall and air temperature recording station. Time series of measured pressure head were used to calibrate a hydrological numerical model of the pyroclastic soil mantle for 2011, which was re-run for a 12-year period beginning in 2000, given the availability of rainfall and air temperature monitoring data. Such an approach allowed us to reconstruct the regime of pressure head at a daily time scale for a long period, which is representative of about 11 hydrologic years with different meteorological conditions. Based on this simulated time series, average winter and summer hydrological conditions were chosen to carry out hydrological and stability modeling of sample slopes and to identify Intensity- Duration rainfall thresholds by a deterministic approach. Among principal results, the opposing winter and summer antecedent pressure head (soil moisture) conditions were found to exert a significant control on intensity and duration of rainfall triggering events. Going from winter to summer conditions requires a strong increase of intensity and/or duration to induce landslides. The results identify an approach to account for different hazard conditions related to seasonality of hydrological processes inside the ash-fall pyroclastic soil mantle. Moreover, they highlight another important factor of uncertainty that potentially affects rainfall thresholds triggering shallow landslides reconstructed by empirical approaches.

Campania↗

Controls on the breach geometry and flood hydrograph during overtopping of non-cohesive earthen dams

Overtopping failure of non-cohesive earthen dams was investigated in 13 large-scale experiments with dams built of compacted, damp, fine-grained sand. Breaching was initiated by cutting a notch across the dam crest and allowing water escaping from a finite upstream reservoir to form its own channel. The channel developed a stepped profile, and upstream migration of the steps, which coalesced into a headcut, led to the establishment of hydraulic control (critical flow) at the channel head, or breach crest, an arcuate erosional feature that functions hydraulically as a weir. Novel photogrammetric methods, along with underwater videography, revealed that the retreating headcut maintained a slope near the angle of friction of the sand, while the cross section at the breach crest maintained a geometrically similar shape through time. That cross-sectional shape was nearly unaffected by slope failures, contrary to the assumption in many models of dam breaching. Flood hydrographs were quite reproducible--for sets of dams ranging in height from 0.55 m to 0.98 m--when the time datum was chosen as the time that the migrating headcut intersected the breach crest. Peak discharge increased almost linearly as a function of initial dam height. Early-time variability between flood hydrographs for nominally identical dams is probably a reflection of subtle experiment-to-experiment differences in groundwater hydrology and the interaction between surface water and groundwater.

Water Resources Research↗