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Jonathan W. Godt

Publications and source records attributed to Jonathan W. Godt.

At least 73 records · Page 4Linked to original sources
USGS2012

Comparison of soil thickness in a zero-order basin in the Oregon Coast Range using a soil probe and electrical resistivity tomography

Accurate estimation of the soil thickness distribution in steepland drainage basins is essential for understanding ecosystem and subsurface response to infiltration. One important aspect of this characterization is assessing the heavy and antecedent rainfall conditions that lead to shallow landsliding. In this paper, we investigate the direct current (DC) resistivity method as a tool for quickly estimating soil thickness over a steep (33–40°) zero-order basin in the Oregon Coast Range, a landslide prone region. Point measurements throughout the basin showed bedrock depths between 0.55 and 3.2 m. Resistivity of soil and bedrock samples collected from the site was measured for degrees of saturation between 40 and 92%. Resistivity of the soil was typically higher than that of the bedrock for degrees of saturation lower than 70%. Results from the laboratory measurements and point-depth measurements were used in a numerical model to evaluate the resistivity contrast at the soil-bedrock interface. A decreasing-with-depth resistivity contrast was apparent at the interface in the modeling results. At the field site, three transects were surveyed where coincident ground truth measurements of bedrock depth were available, to test the accuracy of the method. The same decreasing-with-depth resistivity trend that was apparent in the model was also present in the survey data. The resistivity contour of between 1,000 and 2,000 Ωm that marked the top of the contrast was our interpreted bedrock depth in the survey data. Kriged depth-to-bedrock maps were created from both the field-measured ground truth obtained with a soil probe and interpreted depths from the resistivity tomography, and these were compared for accuracy graphically. Depths were interpolated as far as 16.5 m laterally from the resistivity survey lines with root mean squared error (RMSE) = 27 cm between the measured and interpreted depth at those locations. Using several transects and analysis of the subsurface material properties, the direct current (DC) resistivity method is shown to be able to delineate bedrock depth trends within the drainage basin.

Oregon↗
USGS2012

Natural hazards science strategy

The mission of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in natural hazards is to develop and apply hazard science to help protect the safety, security, and economic well-being of the Nation. The costs and consequences of natural hazards can be enormous, and each year more people and infrastructure are at risk. USGS scientific research—founded on detailed observations and improved understanding of the responsible physical processes—can help to understand and reduce natural hazard risks and to make and effectively communicate reliable statements about hazard characteristics, such as frequency, magnitude, extent, onset, consequences, and where possible, the time of future events. To accomplish its broad hazard mission, the USGS maintains an expert workforce of scientists and technicians in the earth sciences, hydrology, biology, geography, social and behavioral sciences, and other fields, and engages cooperatively with numerous agencies, research institutions, and organizations in the public and private sectors, across the Nation and around the world. The scientific expertise required to accomplish the USGS mission in natural hazards includes a wide range of disciplines that this report refers to, in aggregate, as hazard science. In October 2010, the Natural Hazards Science Strategy Planning Team (H–SSPT) was charged with developing a long-term (10-year) Science Strategy for the USGS mission in natural hazards. This report fulfills that charge, with a document hereinafter referred to as the Strategy, to provide scientific observations, analyses, and research that are critical for the Nation to become more resilient to natural hazards. Science provides the information that decisionmakers need to determine whether risk management activities are worthwhile. Moreover, as the agency with the perspective of geologic time, the USGS is uniquely positioned to extend the collective experience of society to prepare for events outside current memory. The USGS has critical statutory and nonstatutory roles regarding floods, earthquakes, tsunamis, landslides, coastal erosion, volcanic eruptions, wildfires, and magnetic storms—the hazards considered in this plan. There are numerous other hazards of societal importance that are considered either only peripherally or not at all in this Strategy because they are either in another of the USGS strategic science plans (such as drought) or not in the overall mission of the USGS (such as tornados).

Open-File Report↗
USGS2011

Direction of unsaturated flow in a homogeneous and isotropic hillslope

The distribution of soil moisture in a homogeneous and isotropic hillslope is a transient, variably saturated physical process controlled by rainfall characteristics, hillslope geometry, and the hydrological properties of the hillslope materials. The major driving mechanisms for moisture movement are gravity and gradients in matric potential. The latter is solely controlled by gradients of moisture content. In a homogeneous and isotropic saturated hillslope, absent a gradient in moisture content and under the driving force of gravity with a constant pressure boundary at the slope surface, flow is always in the lateral downslope direction, under either transient or steady state conditions. However, under variably saturated conditions, both gravity and moisture content gradients drive fluid motion, leading to complex flow patterns. In general, the flow field near the ground surface is variably saturated and transient, and the direction of flow could be laterally downslope, laterally upslope, or vertically downward. Previous work has suggested that prevailing rainfall conditions are sufficient to completely control these flow regimes. This work, however, shows that under time-varying rainfall conditions, vertical, downslope, and upslope lateral flow can concurrently occur at different depths and locations within the hillslope. More importantly, we show that the state of wetting or drying in a hillslope defines the temporal and spatial regimes of flow and when and where laterally downslope and/or laterally upslope flow occurs.

Water Resources Research↗
USGS2011

Entrainment of bed sediment by debris flows: results from large-scale experiments

When debris flows grow by entraining sediment, they can become especially hazardous owing to increased volume, speed, and runout. To investigate the entrainment process, we conducted eight largescale experiments in the USGS debris-flow flume. In each experiment, we released a 6 m3 water-saturated debris flow across a 47-m long, ~12-cm thick bed of partially saturated sediment lining the 31º flume. Prior to release, we used low-intensity overhead sprinkling and real-time monitoring to control the bed-sediment wetness. As each debris flow descended the flume, we measured the evolution of flow thickness, basal total normal stress, basal pore-fluid pressure, and sediment scour depth. When debris flows traveled over relatively dry sediment, net scour was minimal, but when debris flows traveled over wetter sediment (volumetric water content > 0.22), debris-flow volume grew rapidly and flow speed and runout were enhanced. Data from scour sensors showed that entrainment occurred by rapid (5-10 cm/s), progressive scour rather than by mass failure at depth. Overriding debris flows rapidly generated high basal pore-fluid pressures when they loaded and deformed bed sediment, and in wetter beds these pressures approached lithostatic levels. Reduction of intergranular friction within the bed sediment thereby enhanced scour efficiency, entrainment, and runout.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2010

Positive feedback and momentum growth during debris-flow entrainment of wet bed sediment

Debris flows typically occur when intense rainfall or snowmelt triggers landslides or extensive erosion on steep, debris-mantled slopes. The flows can then grow dramatically in size and speed as they entrain material from their beds and banks, but the mechanism of this growth is unclear. Indeed, momentum conservation implies that entrainment of static material should retard the motion of the flows if friction remains unchanged. Here we use data from large-scale experiments to assess the entrainment of bed material by debris flows. We find that entrainment is accompanied by increased flow momentum and speed only if large positive pore pressures develop in wet bed sediments as the sediments are overridden by debris flows. The increased pore pressure facilitates progressive scour of the bed, reduces basal friction and instigates positive feedback that causes flow speed, mass and momentum to increase. If dryer bed sediment is entrained, however, the feedback becomes negative and flow momentum declines. We infer that analogous feedbacks could operate in other types of gravity-driven mass flow that interact with erodible beds.

Nature Geoscience↗
USGS2010

Estimating the timing and location of shallow rainfall-induced landslides using a model for transient, unsaturated infiltration

Shallow rainfall-induced landslides commonly occur under conditions of transient infiltration into initially unsaturated soils. In an effort to predict the timing and location of such landslides, we developed a model of the infiltration process using a two-layer system that consists of an unsaturated zone above a saturated zone and implemented this model in a geographic information system (GIS) framework. The model links analytical solutions for transient, unsaturated, vertical infiltration above the water table to pressure-diffusion solutions for pressure changes below the water table. The solutions are coupled through a transient water table that rises as water accumulates at the base of the unsaturated zone. This scheme, though limited to simplified soil-water characteristics and moist initial conditions, greatly improves computational efficiency over numerical models in spatially distributed modeling applications. Pore pressures computed by these coupled models are subsequently used in one-dimensional slope-stability computations to estimate the timing and locations of slope failures. Applied over a digital landscape near Seattle, Washington, for an hourly rainfall history known to trigger shallow landslides, the model computes a factor of safety for each grid cell at any time during a rainstorm. The unsaturated layer attenuates and delays the rainfall-induced pore-pressure response of the model at depth, consistent with observations at an instrumented hillside near Edmonds, Washington. This attenuation results in realistic estimates of timing for the onset of slope instability (7 h earlier than observed landslides, on average). By considering the spatial distribution of physical properties, the model predicts the primary source areas of landslides.

Journal of Geophysical Research F: Earth Surface↗
USGS2009

Early warning of rainfall-induced shallow landslides and debris flows in the USA

The state of knowledge and resources available to issue alerts of precipitation-induced landslides vary across the USA. Federal and state agencies currently issue warnings of the potential for shallow, rapidly moving landslides and debris flows in a few areas along the Pacific coast and for areas affected by Atlantic hurricanes. However, these agencies generally lack resources needed to provide continuous support or to expand services to other areas. Precipitation thresholds that form the basis of landslide warning systems now exist for a few areas of the USA, but the threshold rainfall amounts and durations vary over three orders of magnitude nationwide and over an order of magnitude across small geographic areas such as a county. Antecedent moisture conditions also have a significant effect, particularly in areas that have distinct wet and dry seasons. Early warnings of shallow landslides that include specific information about affected areas, probability of landslide occurrence, and expected timing are technically feasible as illustrated by a case study from the Seattle, WA area. The four-level warning scheme (Null, Outlook, Watch, Warning) defined for Seattle is based on observed or predicted exceedance of a cumulative precipitation threshold and a rainfall intensity–duration threshold combined with real-time monitoring of soil moisture. Based on analysis of historical data, threshold performance varies according to precipitation characteristics, and threshold exceedance corresponds to a given probability of landslide occurrence. Experience in Seattle during December 2004 and January 2005 illustrates some of the challenges of providing landslide early warning on the USA West Coast.

Landslides↗
USGS2008

Infinite slope stability under steady unsaturated seepage conditions

We present a generalized framework for the stability of infinite slopes under steady unsaturated seepage conditions. The analytical framework allows the water table to be located at any depth below the ground surface and variation of soil suction and moisture content above the water table under steady infiltration conditions. The framework also explicitly considers the effect of weathering and porosity increase near the ground surface on changes in the friction angle of the soil. The factor of safety is conceptualized as a function of the depth within the vadose zone and can be reduced to the classical analytical solution for subaerial infinite slopes in the saturated zone. Slope stability analyses with hypothetical sandy and silty soils are conducted to illustrate the effectiveness of the framework. These analyses indicate that for hillslopes of both sandy and silty soils, failure can occur above the water table under steady infiltration conditions, which is consistent with some field observations that cannot be predicted by the classical infinite slope theory. A case study of shallow slope failures of sandy colluvium on steep coastal hillslopes near Seattle, Washington, is presented to examine the predictive utility of the proposed framework.

Water Resources Research↗
USGS2008

Initiation conditions for debris flows generated by runoff at Chalk Cliffs, central Colorado

We have monitored initiation conditions for six debris flows between May 2004 and July 2006 in a 0.3 km 2 drainage basin at Chalk Cliffs; a band of hydrothermally-altered quartz monzonite in central Colorado. Debris flows were initiated by water runoff from colluvium and bedrock that entrained sediment from rills and channels with slopes ranging from about 14° to 45°. The availability of channel material is essentially unlimited because of thick channel fill and refilling following debris flows by rock fall and dry ravel processes. Rainfall exceeding I = 6.61( D ) − 0.77 , where I is rainfall intensity (mm/h), and D is duration (h), was required for the initiation of debris flows in the drainage basin. The approximate minimum runoff discharge from the surface of bedrock required to initiate debris flows in the channels was 0.15 m 3 /s. Colluvium in the basin was unsaturated immediately prior to (antecedent) and during debris flows. Antecedent, volumetric moisture levels in colluvium at depths of 1 cm and 29 cm ranged from 4–9%, and 4–7%, respectively. During debris flows, peak moisture levels in colluvium at depths of 1 cm and 29 cm ranged from 10–20%, and 4–12%, respectively. Channel sediment at a depth of 45 cm was unsaturated before and during debris flows; antecedent moisture ranged from 20–22%, and peak moisture ranged from 24–38%. Although we have no measurements from shallow rill or channel sediment, we infer that it was unsaturated before debris flows, and saturated by surface-water runoff during debris flows. Our results allow us to make the following general statements with regard to debris flows generated by runoff in semi-arid to arid mountainous regions: 1) high antecedent moisture levels in hillslope and channel sediment are not required for the initiation of debris flows by runoff, 2) locations of entrainment of sediment by successive runoff events can vary within a basin as a function of variations in the thickness of existing channel fill and the rate of replenishment of channel fill by rock fall and dry ravel processes following debris flows, and 3) rainfall and simulated surface-water discharge thresholds can be useful in understanding and predicting debris flows generated by runoff and sediment entrainment.

Colorado↗
USGS2008

A prototype system for forecasting landslides in the Seattle, Washington, area

Empirical rainfall thresholds and related information form the basis of a prototype system for forecasting landslides in the Seattle area. The forecasts are tied to four alert levels, and a decision tree guides the use of thresholds to determine the appropriate level. From analysis of historical landslide data, we developed a formula for a cumulative rainfall threshold (CT), P 3 = 88.9 − 0.67 P 15 , defined by rainfall amounts in millimeters during consecutive 3 d (72 h) periods, P 3 , and the 15 d (360 h) period before P 3 , P 15 . The variable CT captures more than 90% of historical events of three or more landslides in 1 d and 3 d periods recorded from 1978 to 2003. However, the low probability of landslide occurrence on a day when the CT is exceeded at one or more rain gauges (8.4%) justifies a low-level of alert for possible landslide occurrence, but it does trigger more vigilant monitoring of rainfall and soil wetness. Exceedance of a rainfall intensity-duration threshold I = 82.73 D −1.13 , for intensity, I (mm/hr), and duration, D (hr), corresponds to a higher probability of landslide occurrence (30%) and forms the basis for issuing warnings of impending, widespread occurrence of landslides. Information about the area of exceedance and soil wetness can be used to increase the certainty of landslide forecasts (probabilities as great as 71%). Automated analysis of real-time rainfall and subsurface water data and digital quantitative precipitation forecasts are needed to fully implement a warning system based on the two thresholds.

Washington↗
USGS2008

Numerical modeling of rainfall thresholds for shallow landsliding in the Seattle, Washington, area

The temporal forecasting of landslide hazard has typically relied on empirical relations between rainfall characteristics and landslide occurrence to identify conditions that may cause shallow landslides. Here, we describe an alternate, deterministic approach to define rainfall thresholds for landslide occurrence in the Seattle, Washington, area. This approach combines an infinite slope-stability model with a variably saturated flow model to determine the rainfall intensity and duration that leads to shallow failure of hillside colluvium. We examine the influence of variation in particle-size distribution on the unsaturated hydraulic properties of the colluvium by performing capillary-rise tests on glacial outwash sand and three experimental soils with increasing amounts of fine-grained material. Observations of pore-water response to rainfall collected as part of a program to monitor the near-surface hydrology of steep coastal bluffs along Puget Sound were used to test the numerical model results and in an inverse modeling procedure to determine the in situ hydraulic properties. Modeling results are given in terms of a destabilizing rainfall intensity and duration, and comparisons with empirical observations of landslide occurrence and triggering rainfall indicate that the modeling approach may be useful for forecasting landslide occurrence.

Washington↗
USGS2008

Modeling rainfall conditions for shallow landsliding in Seattle, Washington

We describe the results from an application of a distributed, transient infiltration–slope-stability model for an 18 km 2 area of southwestern Seattle, Washington, USA. The model (TRIGRS) combines an infinite slope-stability calculation and an analytic, one-dimensional solution for pore-pressure diffusion in a soil layer of finite depth in response to time-varying rainfall. The transient solution for pore-pressure response can be superposed on any steady-state groundwater-flow field that is consistent with model assumptions. Applied over digital topography, the model computes a factor of safety for each grid cell at any time during a rainstorm. Input variables may vary from cell to cell, and the rainfall rate can vary in both space and time. For Seattle, topographic slope derived from an airborne laser swath mapping (ALSM)–based 3 m digital elevation model (DEM), maps of soil and water-table depths derived from geotechnical borings, and hourly rainfall intensities were used as model inputs. Material strength and hydraulic properties used in the model were determined from field and laboratory measurements, and a tension-saturated initial condition was assumed. Results are given in terms of a destabilizing intensity and duration of rainfall, and they were evaluated by comparing the locations of 212 historical landslides with the area mapped as potentially unstable. Because the equations of groundwater flow are explicitly solved with respect to time, the results from TRIGRS simulations can be portrayed quantitatively to assess the potential landslide hazard based on rainfall conditions.

Washington↗
USGS2008

Preface

The idea for Landslides and Engineering Geology of the Seattle, Washington, Area grew out of a major landslide disaster that occurred in the Puget Sound region at the beginning of 1997. Unusually heavy snowfall in late December 1996 followed by warm, intense rainfall on 31 December through 2 January 1997 produced hundreds of damaging landslides in communities surrounding Puget Sound. This disaster resulted in significant efforts of the local geotechnical community and local governments to repair the damage and to mitigate the effects of future landslides. The magnitude of the disaster attracted the attention of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), which was just beginning a large multihazards project for Puget Sound. The USGS immediately added a regional study of landslides to that project. Soon a partnership formed between the City of Seattle and the USGS to assess landslide hazards of Seattle.

Reviews in Engineering Geology↗
USGS2008

TRIGRS - A Fortran Program for Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-Based Regional Slope-Stability Analysis, Version 2.0

The Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-Based Regional Slope-Stability Model (TRIGRS) is a Fortran program designed for modeling the timing and distribution of shallow, rainfall-induced landslides. The program computes transient pore-pressure changes, and attendant changes in the factor of safety, due to rainfall infiltration. The program models rainfall infiltration, resulting from storms that have durations ranging from hours to a few days, using analytical solutions for partial differential equations that represent one-dimensional, vertical flow in isotropic, homogeneous materials for either saturated or unsaturated conditions. Use of step-function series allows the program to represent variable rainfall input, and a simple runoff routing model allows the user to divert excess water from impervious areas onto more permeable downslope areas. The TRIGRS program uses a simple infinite-slope model to compute factor of safety on a cell-by-cell basis. An approximate formula for effective stress in unsaturated materials aids computation of the factor of safety in unsaturated soils. Horizontal heterogeneity is accounted for by allowing material properties, rainfall, and other input values to vary from cell to cell. This command-line program is used in conjunction with geographic information system (GIS) software to prepare input grids and visualize model results.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2008

Ferguson rock slide buries California State Highway near Yosemite National Park

During spring 2006, talus from the toe area of a rock-block slide of about 800,000 m 3 buried California State Highway 140, one of the main routes into heavily-visited Yosemite National Park, USA. Closure of the highway for 92 days caused business losses of about 4.8 million USD. The rock slide, composed of slate and phyllite, moved slowly downslope from April to June 2006, creating a fresh head scarp with 9-12 m of displacement. Movement of the main rock slide, a re-activation of an older slide, was triggered by an exceptionally wet spring 2006, following a very wet spring 2005. As of autumn 2006, most of the main slide appeared to be at rest, although rocks occasionally continued to fall from steep, fractured rock masses at the toe area of the slide. Future behavior of the slide is difficult to predict, but possible scenarios range from continued scattered rock fall to complete rapid failure of the entire mass. Although unlikely except under very destabilizing circumstances, a worst-case, rapid failure of the entire rock slide could extend across the Merced River, damming the river and creating a reservoir. As a temporary measure, traffic has been rerouted to the opposite side of the Merced River at about the same elevation as the buried section of Highway 140. A state-of-the-art monitoring system has been installed to detect movement in the steep talus slope, movement of the main slide mass, local strong ground motion from regional earthquakes, and sudden changes in stream levels, possibly indicating damming of the river by slide material.

California↗
USGS2008

Modeling landslide recurrence in Seattle, Washington, USA

To manage the hazard associated with shallow landslides, decision makers need an understanding of where and when landslides may occur. A variety of approaches have been used to estimate the hazard from shallow, rainfall-triggered landslides, such as empirical rainfall threshold methods or probabilistic methods based on historical records. The wide availability of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and digital topographic data has led to the development of analytic methods for landslide hazard estimation that couple steady-state hydrological models with slope stability calculations. Because these methods typically neglect the transient effects of infiltration on slope stability, results cannot be linked with historical or forecasted rainfall sequences. Estimates of the frequency of conditions likely to cause landslides are critical for quantitative risk and hazard assessments. We present results to demonstrate how a transient infiltration model coupled with an infinite slope stability calculation may be used to assess shallow landslide frequency in the City of Seattle, Washington, USA. A module called CRF (Critical RainFall) for estimating deterministic rainfall thresholds has been integrated in the TRIGRS (Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-based Slope-Stability) model that combines a transient, one-dimensional analytic solution for pore-pressure response to rainfall infiltration with an infinite slope stability calculation. Input data for the extended model include topographic slope, colluvial thickness, initial water-table depth, material properties, and rainfall durations. This approach is combined with a statistical treatment of rainfall using a GEV (General Extreme Value) probabilistic distribution to produce maps showing the shallow landslide recurrence induced, on a spatially distributed basis, as a function of rainfall duration and hillslope characteristics.

Washington↗
USGS2008

Landslides and engineering geology of the Seattle, Washington, area

This volume brings together case studies and summary papers describing the application of state-of-the-art engineering geologic methods to landslide hazard analysis for the Seattle, Washington, area. An introductory chapter provides a thorough description of the Quaternary and bedrock geology of Seattle. Nine additional chapters review the history of landslide mapping in Seattle, present case studies of individual landslides, describe the results of spatial assessments of landslide hazard, discuss hydrologic controls on landsliding, and outline an early warning system for rainfall-induced landslides.

Washington↗