Geology Reports⌕ Search

Geology topics

Jon E. Keeley

Publications and source records attributed to Jon E. Keeley.

At least 55 records · Page 3Linked to original sources
USGS2014

Abrupt climate-independent fire regime changes

Wildfires have played a determining role in distribution, composition and structure of many ecosystems worldwide and climatic changes are widely considered to be a major driver of future fire regime changes. However, forecasting future climatic change induced impacts on fire regimes will require a clearer understanding of other drivers of abrupt fire regime changes. Here, we focus on evidence from different environmental and temporal settings of fire regimes changes that are not directly attributed to climatic changes. We review key cases of these abrupt fire regime changes at different spatial and temporal scales, including those directly driven (i) by fauna, (ii) by invasive plant species, and (iii) by socio-economic and policy changes. All these drivers might generate non-linear effects of landscape changes in fuel structure; that is, they generate fuel changes that can cross thresholds of landscape continuity, and thus drastically change fire activity. Although climatic changes might contribute to some of these changes, there are also many instances that are not primarily linked to climatic shifts. Understanding the mechanism driving fire regime changes should contribute to our ability to better assess future fire regimes.

Ecosystems↗
USGS2014

County-level analysis of the impact of temperature and population increases on California wildfire data

The extent to which the apparent increase in wildfire incidence and burn area in California from 1990 to 2006 is affected by population and temperature increases is examined. Using generalized linear models with random effects, we focus on the estimated impacts of increases in mean daily temperatures and populations in different counties on wildfire in those counties, after essentially controlling for the overall differences between counties in their overall mean temperatures and populations. We find that temperature increase appears to have a significant positive impact on both total burn area and number of observed wildfires. Population growth appears to have a much less pronounced impact on total burn area than do annual temperature increases, and population growth appears to be negatively correlated with the total number of observed wildfires. These effects are especially pronounced in the winter season and in Southern California counties.

California↗
USGS2014

Aquatic CAM photosynthesis: a brief history of its discovery

Aquatic CAM (Crassulacean Acid Metabolism) photosynthesis was discovered while investigating an unrelated biochemical pathway concerned with anaerobic metabolism. George Bowes was a significant contributor to this project early in its infancy. Not only did he provide me with some valuable perspectives on peer review rejections, but by working with his gas exchange system I was able to take our initial observations of diel fluctuations in malic acid to the next level, showing this aquatic plant exhibited dark CO2 uptake. CAM is universal in all aquatic species of the worldwide Lycophyta genus Isoetes and non-existent in terrestrial Isoetes. Outside of this genus aquatic CAM has a limited occurrence in three other families, including the Crassulaceae. This discovery led to fascinating adventures in the highlands of the Peruvian Andes in search of Stylites, a terrestrial relative of Isoetes. Stylites is a plant that is hermetically sealed from the atmosphere and obtains all of its carbon from terrestrial sources and recycles carbon through CAM. Considering the Mesozoic origin of Isoetes in shallow pools, coupled with the fact that aquatic Isoetes universally possess CAM, suggests the earliest evolution of CAM photosynthesis was most likely not in terrestrial plants.

Aquatic Botany↗
USGS2014

The role of defensible space for residential structure protection during wildfires

With the potential for worsening fire conditions, discussion is escalating over how to best reduce effects on urban communities. A widely supported strategy is the creation of defensible space immediately surrounding homes and other structures. Although state and local governments publish specific guidelines and requirements, there is little empirical evidence to suggest how much vegetation modification is needed to provide significant benefits. We analysed the role of defensible space by mapping and measuring a suite of variables on modern pre-fire aerial photography for 1000 destroyed and 1000 surviving structures for all fires where homes burned from 2001 to 2010 in San Diego County, CA, USA. Structures were more likely to survive a fire with defensible space immediately adjacent to them. The most effective treatment distance varied between 5 and 20 m (16–58 ft) from the structure, but distances larger than 30 m (100 ft) did not provide additional protection, even for structures located on steep slopes. The most effective actions were reducing woody cover up to 40% immediately adjacent to structures and ensuring that vegetation does not overhang or touch the structure. Multiple-regression models showed landscape-scale factors, including low housing density and distances to major roads, were more important in explaining structure destruction. The best long-term solution will involve a suite of prevention measures that include defensible space as well as building design approach, community education and proactive land use planning that limits exposure to fire.

International Journal of Wildland Fire↗
USGS2013

Land use planning and wildfire: development policies influence future probability of housing loss

Increasing numbers of homes are being destroyed by wildfire in the wildland-urban interface. With projections of climate change and housing growth potentially exacerbating the threat of wildfire to homes and property, effective fire-risk reduction alternatives are needed as part of a comprehensive fire management plan. Land use planning represents a shift in traditional thinking from trying to eliminate wildfires, or even increasing resilience to them, toward avoiding exposure to them through the informed placement of new residential structures. For land use planning to be effective, it needs to be based on solid understanding of where and how to locate and arrange new homes. We simulated three scenarios of future residential development and projected landscape-level wildfire risk to residential structures in a rapidly urbanizing, fire-prone region in southern California. We based all future development on an econometric subdivision model, but we varied the emphasis of subdivision decision-making based on three broad and common growth types: infill, expansion, and leapfrog. Simulation results showed that decision-making based on these growth types, when applied locally for subdivision of individual parcels, produced substantial landscape-level differences in pattern, location, and extent of development. These differences in development, in turn, affected the area and proportion of structures at risk from burning in wildfires. Scenarios with lower housing density and larger numbers of small, isolated clusters of development, i.e., resulting from leapfrog development, were generally predicted to have the highest predicted fire risk to the largest proportion of structures in the study area, and infill development was predicted to have the lowest risk. These results suggest that land use planning should be considered an important component to fire risk management and that consistently applied policies based on residential pattern may provide substantial benefits for future risk reduction.

California↗
USGS2013

The 2003 and 2007 wildfires in southern California

Although many residents of southern California have long recognised that wildfires in the region are an ongoing, constant risk to lives and property, the enormity of the regional fire hazard caught the world’s attention during the southern California firestorms of 2003 (Figure 5.1). Beginning on 21 October, a series of fourteen wildfires broke out across the five-county region under severe Santa Ana winds, and within two weeks, more than 300,000 ha had burned (Keeley et al., 2004). The event was one of the costliest in the state’s history, with more than 3,600 homes damaged or destroyed and twenty-four fatalities. Suppression costs for the 12,000 firefighters have been estimated at US$120 million, and the total response and damage cost has been estimated at more than US$3 billion (COES, 2004). [Excerpt]

California↗
USGS2012

Coupling demography, physiology and evolution in chaparral shrubs,

Historically, since fire is a recurrent catastrophic disturbance, mediterranean-climate shrubs have been classified by their mode of postfire regeneration, i.e., obligate seeders, facultative seeders or obligate resprouters. While these terms are useful, they are too restrictive in that they only refer to a species’ response to fire and do not adequately describe modes of reproduction for all taxa.

Book chapter↗
USGS2012

Changes in fire intensity have carry-over effects on plant responses after the next fire in southern California chaparral

Question Do variations in fire intensity within a stand determine changes in fire intensity and plant demographics in a subsequent fire? Location San Diego (CA, USA); chaparral dominated by Adenostoma fasciculatum (resprouter) and Ceanothus greggii (seeder). Methods In 2003, a wildfire burned a young (16-yr-old) stand containing a set of experimental plots burned in 1987 with various levels of fire intensity. In 2004, all the 1987 plots were sampled for Adenostoma survival and the recruitment of both species. Similar measures were carried out in the adjacent old (75-yr) stand. Fire intensity in 2003 was estimated by a surrogate fire severity measure [minimum diameter of burned branches (branch diameter)]. Results In the young stand, branch diameter in 2003 was similar to the control plots in 1987, but lower than in the old stand. Fire intensity in 1987 did not significantly affect branch diameter in 2003. Survival of Adenostoma in the young stand was very low, much lower than after the 1987 burn and that in the old stand. Fire intensity in 1987 did not affect Adenostoma survival. Recruitment in Adenostoma increased, and in Ceanothus decreased, with increased fire intensity in 1987. Conclusions We demonstrate that there is a carry-over effect of fire intensity across a whole fire cycle on plant recruitment of the two dominant species. The 2003 fire partially reversed the relative effects on recruitment caused by elevated fire intensity in 1987. Arguably, this effect was driven by the contrasted relationships of the two species to fire intensity. Adenostoma survival in the young stand was much lower in 2003 than in 1987, despite similar branch diameter, and was also lower than in the old stand, despite higher branch diameter in this case. The causes of such mortality are unknown.

California↗
USGS2012

Ecology and evolution of pine life histories

Introduction - Pinus is a diverse genus of trees widely distributed throughout the Northern Hemisphere. Understanding pine life history is critical to both conservation and fire management. Objectives - Here I lay out the different pathways of pine life history adaptation and a brief overview of pine evolution and the very significant role that fire has played. Results - Pinus originated ~150 Ma in the mid-Mesozoic Era and radiated across the northern continent of Laurasia during the Cretaceous Period. Pines have followed two evolutionary strategies interpreted as responses to competition by the newly emerging angiosperms. The Strobus lineage mostly has radiated into stressful sites of low nutrient soils and extremes in cold or heat. The Pinus (subgenus) lineage has radiated into fire-prone landscapes with diverse fire regimes. Examination of life history traits illustrates syndromes associated with fire-avoider, fire-tolerater, fire-embracer, and fire-refuge strategies. Conclusion - Understanding the current pattern of pine distribution requires interpreting their evolution in terms of climate, geology, and fire. All three of these factors have played a role since the Mesozoic origin of the genus. All are important to the appropriate management of these resources.

Annals of Forest Science↗
USGS2012

Fuel treatment impacts on estimated wildfire carbon loss from forests in Montana, Oregon, California, and Arizona

Using forests to sequester carbon in response to anthropogenically induced climate change is being considered across the globe. A recent U.S. executive order mandated that all federal agencies account for sequestration and emissions of greenhouse gases, highlighting the importance of understanding how forest carbon stocks are influenced by wildfire. This paper reports the effects of the most common forest fuel reduction treatments on carbon pools composed of live and dead biomass as well as potential wildfire emissions from six different sites in four western U.S. states. Additionally, we predict the median forest product life spans and uses of materials removed during mechanical treatments. Carbon loss from modeled wildfire-induced tree mortality was lowest in the mechanical plus prescribed fire treatments, followed by the prescribed fire-only treatments. Wildfire emissions varied from 10&ndash;80 Mg/ha and were lowest in the prescribed fire and mechanical followed by prescribed fire treatments at most sites. Mean biomass removals per site ranged from approximately 30&ndash;60 dry Mg/ha; the median lives of products in first use varied considerably (from <10 to >50 years). Our research suggests most of the benefits of increased fire resistance can be achieved with relatively small reductions in current carbon stocks. Retaining or growing larger trees also reduced the vulnerability of carbon loss from wildfire. In addition, modeled vulnerabilities to carbon losses and median forest product life spans varied considerably across our study sites, which could be used to help prioritize treatment implementation.

California, Oregon, Montana, Arizona↗
USGS2012

Housing arrangement and location determine the likelihood of housing loss due to wildfire

Surging wildfires across the globe are contributing to escalating residential losses and have major social, economic, and ecological consequences. The highest losses in the U.S. occur in southern California, where nearly 1000 homes per year have been destroyed by wildfires since 2000. Wildfire risk reduction efforts focus primarily on fuel reduction and, to a lesser degree, on house characteristics and homeowner responsibility. However, the extent to which land use planning could alleviate wildfire risk has been largely missing from the debate despite large numbers of homes being placed in the most hazardous parts of the landscape. Our goal was to examine how housing location and arrangement affects the likelihood that a home will be lost when a wildfire occurs. We developed an extensive geographic dataset of structure locations, including more than 5500 structures that were destroyed or damaged by wildfire since 2001, and identified the main contributors to property loss in two extensive, fire-prone regions in southern California. The arrangement and location of structures strongly affected their susceptibility to wildfire, with property loss most likely at low to intermediate structure densities and in areas with a history of frequent fire. Rates of structure loss were higher when structures were surrounded by wildland vegetation, but were generally higher in herbaceous fuel types than in higher fuel-volume woody types. Empirically based maps developed using housing pattern and location performed better in distinguishing hazardous from non-hazardous areas than maps based on fuel distribution. The strong importance of housing arrangement and location indicate that land use planning may be a critical tool for reducing fire risk, but it will require reliable delineations of the most hazardous locations.

California↗
USGS2012

A plant distribution shift: temperature, drought or past disturbance?

Simple models of plant response to warming climates predict vegetation moving to cooler and/or wetter locations: in mountainous regions shifting upslope. However, species-specific responses to climate change are likely to be much more complex. We re-examined a recently reported vegetation shift in the Santa Rosa Mountains, California, to better understand the mechanisms behind the reported shift of a plant distribution upslope. We focused on five elevational zones near the center of the gradient that captured many of the reported shifts and which are dominated by fire-prone chaparral. Using growth rings, we determined that a major assumption of the previous work was wrong: past fire histories differed among elevations. To examine the potential effect that this difference might have on the reported upward shift, we focused on one species, Ceanothus greggii : a shrub that only recruits post-fire from a soil stored seedbank. For five elevations used in the prior study, we calculated time series of past per-capita mortality rates by counting growth rings on live and dead individuals. We tested three alternative hypotheses explaining the past patterns of mortality: 1) mortality increased over time consistent with climate warming, 2) mortality was correlated with drought indices, and 3) mortality peaked 40–50 years post fire at each site, consistent with self-thinning. We found that the sites were different ages since the last fire, and that the reported increase in the mean elevation of C. greggii was due to higher recent mortality at the lower elevations, which were younger sites. The time-series pattern of mortality was best explained by the self-thinning hypothesis and poorly explained by gradual warming or drought. At least for this species, the reported distribution shift appears to be an artifact of disturbance history and is not evidence of a climate warming effect.

California↗
USGS2012

Fire-driven alien invasion in a fire-adapted ecosystem

Disturbance plays a key role in many alien plant invasions. However, often the main driver of invasion is not disturbance per se but alterations in the disturbance regime. In some fire-adapted shrublands, the community is highly resilient to infrequent, high-intensity fires, but changes in the fire regime that result in shorter fire intervals may make these communities more susceptible to alien plant invasions. This study examines several wildfire events that resulted in short fire intervals in California chaparral shrublands. In one study, we compared postfire recovery patterns in sites with different prefire stand ages (3 and 24 years), and in another study we compared sites that had burned once in four years with sites that had burned twice in this period. The population size of the dominant native shrub Adenostoma fasciculatum was drastically reduced following fire in the 3-year sites relative to the 24-year sites. The 3-year sites had much greater alien plant cover and significantly lower plant diversity than the 24-year sites. In a separate study, repeat fires four years apart on the same sites showed that annual species increased significantly after the second fire, and alien annuals far outnumbered native annuals. Aliens included both annual grasses and annual forbs and were negatively correlated with woody plant cover. Native woody species regenerated well after the first fire but declined after the second fire, and one obligate seeding shrub was extirpated from two sites by the repeat fires. It is concluded that some fire-adapted shrublands are vulnerable to changes in fire regime, and this can lead to a loss of native diversity and put the community on a trajectory towards type conversion from a woody to an herbaceous system. Such changes result in alterations in the proportion of natives to non-natives, changes in functional types from deeply rooted shrubs to shallow rooted grasses and forbs, increased fire frequency due to the increase in fine fuels, and changes in carbon storage.

California↗
USGS2012

The impact of antecedent fire area on burned area in southern California coastal ecosystems

Frequent wildfire disasters in southern California highlight the need for risk reduction strategies for the region, of which fuel reduction via prescribed burning is one option. However, there is no consensus about the effectiveness of prescribed fire in reducing the area of wildfire. Here, we use 29 years of historical fire mapping to quantify the relationship between annual wildfire area and antecedent fire area in predominantly shrub and grassland fuels in seven southern California counties, controlling for annual variation in weather patterns. This method has been used elsewhere to measure leverage: the reduction in wildfire area resulting from one unit of prescribed fire treatment. We found little evidence for a leverage effect (leverage = zero). Specifically our results showed no evidence that wildfire area was negatively influenced by previous fires, and only weak relationships with weather variables rainfall and Santa Ana wind occurrences, which were variables included to control for inter-annual variation. We conclude that this is because only 2% of the vegetation burns each year and so wildfires rarely encounter burned patches and chaparral shrublands can carry a fire within 1 or 2 years after previous fire. Prescribed burning is unlikely to have much influence on fire regimes in this area, though targeted treatment at the urban interface may be effective at providing defensible space for protecting assets. These results fit an emerging global model of fire leverage which position California at the bottom end of a continuum, with tropical savannas at the top (leverage = 1: direct replacement of wildfire by prescribed fire) and Australian eucalypt forests in the middle (leverage ∼ 0.25).

California↗
USGS2012

Postfire chaparral regeneration under mediterranean and non-mediterranean climates

This study compares postfire regeneration and diversity patterns in fire-prone chaparral shrublands from mediterranean (California) and non-mediterranean-type climates (Arizona). Vegetation sampling was conducted in tenth hectare plots with nested subplots for the first two years after fire. Floras in the two regions were compared with Jaccard's Index and importance of families and genera compared with dominance-diversity curves. Although there were 44 families in common between the two regions, the dominant families differed; Poaceae and Fabaceae in Arizona and Hydrophyllaceae and Rosaceae in California. Dominance diversity curves indicated in the first year a more equable distribution of families in Arizona than in California. Woody plants were much more dominant in the mediterranean climate and herbaceous plants more dominant in the bimodal rainfall climate. Species diversity was comparable in both regions at the lowest spatial scales but not at the tenth hectare scale. Due to the double growing season in the non-mediterranean region, the diversity for the first year comprised two different herbaceous floras in the fall and spring growing seasons. The Mediterranean climate in California, in contrast, had only a spring growing season and thus the total diversity for the first year was significantly greater in Arizona than in California for both annuals and herbaceous perennials. Chaparral in these two climate regimes share many dominant shrub species but the postfire communities are very different. Arizona chaparral has both a spring and fall growing season and these produce two very different postfire floras. When combined, the total annual diversity was substantially greater in Arizona chaparral.

Arizona, California↗
USGS2012

Structural equation modeling and the analysis of long-term monitoring data

The analysis of long-term monitoring data is increasingly important; not only for the discovery and documentation of changes in environmental systems, but also as an enterprise whose fruits validate the allocation of effort and scarce funds to monitoring. In simple terms, we may distinguish between the detection of change in some ecosystem attribute versus the investigation of causes and consequences associated with that change. The statistical framework known as structural equation modeling (SEM) can contribute to both detection of changes and the search for causes. This chapter summarizes some of the capabilities of SEM and shows a few ways it can be used to model temporal change. Because of its ability to test hypotheses about whether rates of change are zero or nonzero, it can be used for change detection with repeated-measures data. As more of the capabilities of SEM are presented, its capacity for evaluating causal networks is highlighted. Here is where its potential for making a unique contribution to the analysis of long-term monitoring data is revealed. Thus, one?s primary motivation for using SEM with monitoring data will be to investigate hypotheses about what factors may be driving change. In this chapter, it will be necessary to first introduce notation to describe the elements of structural equation models (SE models) so as to permit an unambiguous presentation of their various forms. The first part of the chapter works through the fundamental features of models of increasing complexity, while the second part of the chapter illustrates several of these possibilities using a real example.

Book chapter↗