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Flood-frequency estimates for Ohio streamgages based on data through water year 2015 and techniques for estimating flood-frequency characteristics of rural, unregulated Ohio streams

Estimates of the magnitudes of annual peak streamflows with annual exceedance probabilities of 0.5, 0.2, 0.1, 0.04, 0.02, 0.01, and 0.002 (equivalent to recurrence intervals of 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, and 500-years, respectively) were computed for 391 streamgages in Ohio and adjacent states based on data collected through the 2015 water year. The flood-frequency estimates were computed following guidance outlined in Bulletin 17C, developed by the Advisory Committee on Water Information. The Bulletin 17C guidelines retain the basic statistical framework of the superseded Bulletin 17B guidelines; however, the Bulletin 17C guidelines add several enhancements including an improved method of moments approach for fitting the log-Pearson Type III (LPIII) distribution to the flood peaks (called the expected moments algorithm), a generalization of the Grubbs Beck low-outlier test (called the Multiple Grubbs Beck test) that permits identification of multiple potentially influential low floods, and new methods for estimating regional skew and uncertainty. Equations for estimating flood-frequency characteristics at ungaged sites on rural, unregulated streams in Ohio were developed with a two-step process involving ordinary least-squares and generalized least-squares regression techniques. Data from 333 streamgages with 10 or more years of unregulated record were screened for redundancy and a regression dataset was selected that was composed of flood-frequency and basin-characteristic data for 275 streamgages in Ohio and adjacent states. Two sets of equations were developed—one set, referred to as the “simple model,” uses regression region and drainage area as regressor variables, and a second set, referred to as the “full model,” uses regression region, drainage area, main-channel slope, and the percentage of the watershed covered by water and wetlands as regressor variables. The average standard errors of prediction ranged from about 40.5 to 46.5 percent for the simple-model equations and from about 37.2 to 40.3 percent for the full-model equations. For sites meeting the rural, unregulated criteria, flood-frequency estimates determined by means of LPIII analyses are reported along with weighted flood-frequency estimates, computed as a function of the LPIII estimates and the regression estimates. For sites with homogenous periods of regulation, flood-frequency estimates determined by means of LPIII analyses are reported. Ninety-five percent confidence limits are reported for all estimates. Values of regressor variables were determined from digital spatial datasets by means of a geographic information system (GIS). The GIS datasets and the new full-model equations have been incorporated into Ohio’s StreamStats application, a web-based, GIS-backed system designed to facilitate the estimation of streamflow statistics at ungaged locations on streams. Seasonal patterns in peak flows were assessed for 295 streamgages in Ohio. Annual peak flows occurred most frequently between January and April, with March having the highest frequency of occurrence. The month with the fewest number of annual peaks was October. Peak-of-record flows occurred most frequently in March, followed by January (months in which two of Ohio’s most severe widespread floods in recent history occurred). None of the peak-of-record flows occurred in October and only two occurred in November. Temporal trend in annual peak flows were assessed for 133 streamgages on unregulated streams in Ohio with 30 or more years of systematic record. Trends were assessed by computing the rank correlation (as measured with the two-sided Kendall’s tau statistic) between time and annual peak flows. Weak but statistically significant trends were indicated at 15 of the 133 streamgages. Of the 15 streamgages with significant trend in annual peak flows, 12 had an upward trend (positive tau) and 3 had a downward trend (negative tau). All 12 streamgages with positive tau values were at latitudes north of 40°33', and streamgages with negative tau values were at latitudes south of 40°33'.

Ohio

Digital-model analysis of the effects of water-use alternatives on spring discharges Gooding and Jerome Counties, Idaho

Springs discharging from the Snake Plain aquifer contribute approximately 6,000 cubic feet per second (170 cubic metres per second) to flow in the Snake River between Milner and King Hill. Before irrigation began on the Snake River Plain north and east of the springs, total spring discharge was about 4,200 cubic feet per second (120 cubic meters per second). Increasing amounts of irrigated acreage from the early 1900's to the mid-1940's contributed more irrigation-return water to the aquifer resulting in increased discharge at the springs. Maximum discharge of about 6,800 cubic feet per second (190 cubic metres per second) occurred during the late 1940's and early 1950's. Increased use of pumped ground water for irrigation and changing irrigation practices have since resulted in a decline in spring discharge.

Idaho

A progress report on results of test drilling and ground-water investigations of the Snake Plain aquifer, southeastern Idaho: Part 3: Lake Walcott-Bonanza Lake area

Direct-current resistivity soundings and exploratory drilling suggest that the basalt of the Snake River Group is relatively thin in the area along the Snake River that is topographically suitable for pumping large quantities of ground water in exchange for surface water. The formations underlying the Snake River Group appear to have low permeability and probably would not yield large amounts of water. Previous studies have indicated that the southern edge of the Snake Plain aquifer extended to the Snake River. Data presented in this report implies that, in general, the southern boundary should, in fact, be several miles north of the river.

Idaho

A progress report on results of test drilling and ground-water investigations of the Snake Plain aquifer, southeastern Idaho: Part 1: Mud Lake Region, 1969-70 and Part 2: Observation Wells South of Arco and West of Aberdeen

The results of drilling test holes to depths of approximately 1,000 feet in the Mud Lake region show that a large part of the region is underlain by both sedimentary deposits and basalt flows. At some locations, predominantly sedimentary deposits were penetrated; at others, basalt flows predominated. The so-called Mud Lake-Market Lake barrier denotes a change in geology. From the vicinity of the barrier area, as described by Stearns, Crandall, and Steward (1938, p. 111), up the water-table gradient for at least a few tens of miles, the saturated geologic section consists predominantly of beds of sediments that are intercalated with numerous basalt flows. Downgradient from the barrier, sedimentary deposits are not common and practically all the water-bearing formations are basalt, at least to the depths explored so far. Thus, the barrier is a transition zone from a sedimentary-basaltic sequence to a basaltic sequence. The sedimentary-basaltic sequence forms a complex hydrologic system in which water occurs under water-table conditions in the upper few tens of feet of saturated material and under artesian conditions in the deeper material in the southwest part of the region. The well data indicate that southwest of the barrier, artesian pressures are not significant. Southwest of the barrier, few sedimentary deposits occur in the basalt section and, as described by Mundorff, Crosthwaite, and Kilburn (1964). ground water occurs in a manner typical of the Snake Plain aquifer. In several wells, artesian pressures are higher in the deeper formations than in the shallower ones, but the reverse was found in a few wells. The available data are not adequate to describe the water-bearing characteristics of the artesian aquifer nor the effects that pumping in one zone would have on adjacent zones. The water-table aquifer yields large quantities of water to irrigation wells.

Idaho

The availability of water in the Little Lost River Basin, Idaho

The Little Lost River basin, an elongated, northwest trending structurally formed intermontane valley, drains an area of about 900 square miles into a closed depression near the northwestern edge of the Snake River Plain. Runoff from snowmelt and rainfall on the Lost River Range on the west and the Lemhi Range on the east maintains the flow of the Little Lost River, and recharges the ground-water reservoir, Both mountain ranges are complexly faulted and are underlain by a variety of rocks, dominantly limestone, of Paleozoic age The principal aquifers are highly transmissive alluvial fill in the middle and upper valley and alluvial fill interfingered with basalt in the southernmost part of the valley.

Idaho

Water resources of the Weiser River basin, west-central Idaho

The study area comprises about 1,600 square miles (4,100 square kilometers) in west-central Idaho and includes the entire Weiser River basin and small areas both west and south of Weiser outside the basin. The basin is sparsely populated and the economy is chiefly agricultural.

Idaho

Water Resources Division training bulletin, October 1981 through September 1982

This bulletin is designed to inform interested personnel about training available through the Water Resources Division of the U.S. Geological Survey during the period October 1981 through September 1982. The information in this bulletin also can assist supervisors and training officers in developing a coordinated, efficient training program for the personnel for whom they are responsible. The objective of the Water Resources Division training program is to provide specialized training in many phases of hydrology and other subjects related to water-resources investigations. The courses featured in this bulletin are on specialized subjects that are not generally available elsewhere, including the latest developments in applications of ground-water, surface-water, and water-quality hydrologic methods in the field and in the laboratory. The training described herein provides: (1) rapid application of new research results to increase the skills of personnel, and (2) provides newly recruited personnel with special training skills and methods required in water-resources investigations. These courses will assist personnel in learning, reviewing, and expanding their knowledge of technical operations involved in various phases of hydrology and related subjects, and also will develop an overall insight into the broad field of water-resources work.

Open-File Report

Bibliography of U.S. Geological Survey water-resources reports for Utah

This bibliography contains a complete listing to December 31, 1986, of reports relating to the water resources of Utah prepared by personnel of the U.S. Geological Survey. Discussions of the related subjects of geology, hydrology, and chemical quality of the water are included in many of the reports. The reports were, for the most part, prepared by personnel assigned to the Water Resources Division, Utah District, in cooperation with State, other Federal, and local agencies. A few reports were prepared under contract with the Geological Survey or in cooperation with the geological Survey. A few were compiled under direct funds to the U.S. Geological Survey.

Utah

Bibliography of U.S. Geological Survey water-resources reports for Utah

This bibliography contains a complete listing to June 30, 1980, of reports relating to the water resources of Utah prepared by personnel of the U.S. Geological Survey. Discussions of the related subjects of geology, hydrology, and chemical quality of the water are included in many of the reports. The reports were, for the most part, prepared by personnel assigned to the Water Resources Division, Utah District, in cooperation with State and local agencies.

Utah

Test drilling for fresh water in Tooele Valley, Utah

A test-drilling program in Tooele Valley, Utah, was conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Utah Department of Natural Resources, Division of Water Rights. The basic data and interpretation of each test hole are included in this report. Results obtained from the test drilling were used in a comprehensive ground-water investigation of the valley fill (Razem and Steiger, 1981).

Utah

Bibliography of U.S. Geological Survey water-resources reports for Utah

This bibliography contains a complete listing to December 1966 of reports relating to the water resources of Utah prepared by personnel of the U.S. Geological Survey. Discussions of the related subjects of geology, hydrology, and chemical quality of the water are included in many of the reports. The reports were, for the most part, prepared by personnel assigned to the Water Resources Division, Utah District, in cooperation with State and local agencies.

Utah

Bibliography of U.S. Geological Survey water-resources reports for Utah

This bibliography contains a complete listing to December 31, 1974, of reports relating to the water resources of Utah prepared by personnel of the U.S. Geological Survey. Discussions of the related subjects of geology, hydrology, and chemical quality of the water are included in many of the reports. The reports were, for the most part, prepared by personnel assigned to the Water Resources Division, Utah District, in cooperation with State and local agencies.

Utah

Bibliography of U.S. Geological Survey water-resources reports for Utah

This bibliography contains a complete listing to December 31, 1971, of reports relating to the water resources of Utah prepared by personnel of the U.S. Geological Survey. Discussions of the related subjects of geology, hydrology, and chemical quality of the water are included in many of the reports. The reports were, for the most part, prepared by personnel assigned to the Water Resources Division, Utah District, in cooperation with State and local agencies.

Utah

Fluvial sediment in Utah, 1905-65: A data compilation

During the past 60 years, the characteristics of fluvial sediment in many streams in the Unites States have been studied by Federal agencies. The purpose of this report is to present available data – both published and unpublished – on fluvial sediment in Utah for the period 1905-65. (See figs. 1 and 2)

Utah

Hydrogeologic data for the lower Housatonic River basin, Connecticut

This report contains hydrologic and geologic data collected for an investigation of the lower Housatonic River basin by the U.S. Geological Survey in financial cooperation with the Connecticut Water Resources Commission. The report also summarizes data that are available in other publications. The towns within the 557 square mile area of the basin in western Connecticut include all of Beacon Falls, Middlebury, Naugatuck, Oxford, Seymour, Thomaston, Waterbury, Watertown, and Woodbury; and parts of Ansonia, Bethany, Bethlehem, Bristol, Burlington, Cheshire, Derby, Easton, Goshen, Narwinton, Litchfield, Milford, Monroe, Morris, New Hartford, Newtown, Norfolk, Orange, Plymouth, Prospect, Roxbury, Shelton, Southbury, Stratford, Torrington, Trumbull, Washington, Winchester, Wolcott, and Woodbridge. The factual information on the following pages was the basis for a companion interpretive report, Connecticut Water Resources Bulletin No. 19 (Wilson, W. E., and others, in preparation, 1970). The basic-data report can be used alone for detailed information needed in planning water resources development at specific sites or it can be used to supplement the interpretive report. Data were collected for this investigation from 1965 to 1967. Water levels measured in wells as part of this investigation were published in Connecticut Water Resources Bulletin No. 7 (Meikle and Baker, 1965) and No. 13 (Meikle, 1967) with water-level data from other wells throughout the State. Publications containing relevant ground-water information are listed on page those concerned with streamflow are on page 5 and those on quality of water, are on page 6. The locations of sites at which data were collected are shown on plate A in the back pocket of this report. Data presented here were collected by the U.S. Geological Survey unless otherwise noted.

Connecticut

Hydrogeologic data for the lower Connecticut River basin, Connecticut

This report contains geologic, ground-water, and miscellaneous data on the quality of surface water collected for a water-resources inventory of the lower Connecticut River basin, Connecticut. The study was made by the U.S. Geological Survey in fiscal cooperation with the Connecticut Department of Environmental Protection. A companion report (Connecticut Water Resources Bulletin No. 31, in preparation) interprets the factual information presented here or otherwise collected for the study.

Connecticut

Hydrogeologic data for the lower Connecticut River basin, Connecticut

This report contains geologic, ground-water, and miscellaneous data on the quality of surface water collected for a water-resources inventory of the lower Connecticut River basin, Connecticut. The study was made by the U.S. Geological Survey in fiscal cooperation with the Connecticut Department of Environmental Protection. A companion report (Connecticut Water Resources Bulletin No. 31, in preparation) interprets the factual information presented here or otherwise collected for the study.

Connecticut

Evaluation of recommended revisions to Bulletin 17B

For the past 36 years, Bulletin 17B, published by the Interagency Committee on Water Data in 1982, has guided flood-frequency analyses in the United States. During this period, much has been learned about both hydrology and statistical methods. In keeping with the tradition of periodically updating the Bulletin 17B guidelines in light of advances in our understanding and methods, the Hydrologic Frequency Analysis Work Group (HFAWG) was charged by the Subcommittee on Hydrology (SOH) of the Advisory Committee on Water Information (ACWI) to consider possible updates to Bulletin 17B. The purpose of this report is to consider the statistical performance of possible revisions to Bulletin 17B procedures. Of particular interest are procedures designed to accommodate more general forms of flood information. The concern is how the proposed procedures would affect the precision, accuracy and robustness of flood-frequency estimates. The investigations reported here focus on techniques for the following: incorporating information related to historical flooding that occurred outside the period of systematic streamgaging; and identification of potentially influential low floods (PILFs). The proposed changes, which mostly involve generalizing Bulletin 17B’s method-of-moments procedures by using the Expected Moments Algorithm (EMA), are relatively modest, at least in the sense that they would not affect the main features of Bulletin 17B. The proposed methods include the following: continued use of the log-Pearson Type 3 (LP3) distribution; continued use of the Method-of-Moments fitting method applied to the logarithms of annual-peak-flow data; and a generalization of the Grubbs-Beck test used in Bulletin 17B to identify low outliers. The new multiple Grubbs-Beck test is sensitive to multiple PILFs. The hydrological literature already provides extensive support for the theory behind the proposed changes. The remaining question is practical: How well do the proposed methods perform under typical and realistic conditions and, specifically, with difficult records occasionally encountered in practice? In order to answer these questions, the HFAWG commissioned the work reported here. The following four major sets of results are provided: Monte Carlo simulations of fitting procedures employing data drawn from simulated LP3 populations; Monte Carlo simulations of fitting procedures employing data drawn from non-LP3 populations that were selected to reflect likely deviations of flood series from LP3 distributions, based on the experience of HFAWG members; a direct comparison of the fitted LP3 distributions for 82 real “test sites” identified by an independent data group as both “typical” and “challenging” for flood-frequency estimation; and simulations of fitting procedures using records obtained by resampling with replacement from the longest of the 82 test-site records. Collectively, these studies provide a reasonably comprehensive, valid, and robust assessment of the properties of the Bulletin 17B methods and proposed alternatives. The experiments and analysis indicate that the flood quantile estimators, proposed as a revision of Bulletin 17B, do the following: perform generally as well as, and in some cases much better than, Bulletin 17B estimators in terms of the mean square error of flood quantiles estimates; allow for incorporation and efficient statistical treatment of broader classes of flood-frequency data and information, including historical information, binomial data and interval data; and generally confirm studies and the theoretical findings reported in the hydrological literature that would support use of updated estimation procedures that have been developed since Bulletin 17B was published.

Open-File Report