Impacts of changing energy economics on exploration and mining
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Proceedings of the Mineral Economics Symposium, No↗
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Changing energy economics: foreword
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Proceedings of the Mineral Economics Symposium, No↗
Energy Resources Program of the U.S. Geological Survey
Our Nation faces the simultaneous challenges of increasing demand for energy, declining domestic production from existing oil and gas fields, and increasing expectations for environmental protection. The Energy Information Administration (2000) forecasts that worldwide energy consumption will increase 32 percent between 1999 and 2020 because of growth of the world economy. Forecasts indicate that in the same time period, U.S. natural gas consumption will increase 62 percent, petroleum consumption will increase 33 percent, and coal consumption will increase 22 percent. The U.S. Geological Survey provides the objective scientific information our society needs for sound decisions regarding land management, environmental quality, and economic, energy, and strategic policy.
Fact Sheet↗
Update of the 2008 provisional Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) assessment for the Great Basin, USA
In response to the Energy Act of 2020, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is updating the Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) resource assessment for the Great Basin, USA. The previous 2008 provisional assessment estimated how much electricity could be generated from EGS resources of the western United States using models of electric-grade heat, models of heat extraction over time, and estimates of how much rock might be stimulated to produce viable amounts of heat. Herein, a similar conceptual strategy is applied, using updated models of heat extraction as a function of fracture spacing and well distance. Previously used reservoir heat delivery models are updated to have a dependence on fracture and well spacing, potentially improving future estimates of EGS resources as ongoing research provides a better understanding about the success of reservoir stimulation as a function of geology and location. For a range of well distances (250-1000 m) and fracture spacings (1-50 m), heat extraction efficiency ranges from 25-62%, demonstrating the importance of accounting for the most likely results of proven viable fracturing technologies. Although fracturing is important, the biggest uncertainty by far in estimating the EGS resource for the Great Basin is estimating which geologic units at what depths can be stimulated sufficiently to produce geothermal energy economically and efficiently. Uncertainties in these factors yield estimates that range over two orders of magnitude with an upper limit of ~174 terawatts-thermal (TWth) produced for 30 years from the upper 7 km of the crust. This upper limit would require significant technological advances to access most of the electric-grade resource across the Great Basin. Assuming that 1% of this estimate will be accessible in the next few decades gives a resource estimate similar to that made in the 2008 provisional assessment. These estimated EGS heat extraction rates far exceed ( greater than 100x) the natural geothermal heat production rate, thus geothermal electricity production at these rates might not be sustainable unless heat is also recharged from other sources (e.g., excess solar energy when supply exceeds demand). In addition to assessment maps and cumulative estimates, the new models of fractured reservoirs developed herein can be used to estimate steady power production given a set of fractures and well spacing, and estimates can be made for setback distances to ensure no thermal interference with nearby powerplants.
Arizona, California, Idaho, Nevada, Oregon, Utah↗
Managing for a changing climate: A bended interdisciplinary climate course
We developed a blended (or hybrid) interactive course— Managing for a Changing Climate —that provides a holistic view of climate change. The course results from communication with university students and natural and cultural resource managers as well as the need for educational efforts aimed at the public, legislators, and decision-makers. Content includes the components of the physical climate system, natural climate variability, anthropogenic drivers of climate change, climate models and projections, climate assessments, energy economics, environmental policy, vulnerabilities to climate hazards, impacts of climate change, and decision-making related to climate adaptation and mitigation efforts. To convey most of the content, the course-development team created over 50 short videos (3–10 min each) in partnership with experts from a variety of academic, government, and industry institutions. The blended course has been offered as an upper-division, undergraduate course in the Department of Geography and Environmental Sustainability and School of Meteorology (four times) and College of International Studies (in Italy, once) at the University of Oklahoma with over 100 total students. The course has also been presented online-only at no cost to the participants in four fall semesters with over 1,000 total registrations. Videos created for this course are freely available on the YouTube page of the South Central Climate Adaptation Science Center. This course and its associated materials comprise high-quality, formal climate training and education that can be adapted to other formal and informal education settings beyond the walls of the university.
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society↗
WaterSMART-The Colorado River Basin focus-area study
Increasing demand for the limited water resources of the United States continues to put pressure on water-resource agencies to balance the competing needs of ecosystem health with municipal, agricultural, and recreational uses. In 2007, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) identified a National Water Census as one of six pivotal future science directions for the USGS in the following decade. The envisioned USGS National Water Census would evaluate large-scale effects of changes in land use and land cover, water use, and climate on water availability, water quality, and human and aquatic ecosystem health. The passage of the SECURE (Science and Engineering to Comprehensively Understand and Responsibly Enhance) Water Act in 2009 was a key step towards implementing the USGS National Water Census. Section 9508 of the Act authorizes a "national water availability and use assessment program" within the USGS (1) to provide a more accurate assessment of the status of the water resources of the United States; and (2) to develop the science for improved forecasts of the availability of water for future economic, energy production, and environmental uses. Initial funding for the USGS to begin working on the National Water Census came with the approval of the U.S. Department of the Interior's WaterSMART (Sustain and Manage America's Resources for Tomorrow) Initiative. The WaterSMART Initiative provides funding to the USGS, Bureau of Reclamation, and U.S. Department of Energy to achieve a sustainable water strategy to meet the Nation's water needs. WaterSMART funding also allowed the USGS to begin the national Water Availability and Use Assessment, as called for under the SECURE Water Act.
Arizona;Colorado;New Mexico;Utah↗
Navajo coal and air quality in Shiprock, New Mexico
Among the Navajo people, high levels of respiratory disease, such as asthma, exist in a population with low rates of cigarette smoking. Air quality outdoors and indoors affects respiratory health. Many Navajo Nation residents burn locally mined coal in their homes for heat, as coal is the most economical energy source. The U.S. Geological Survey and Dine College, in cooperation with the Navajo Division of Health, are conducting a study in the Shiprock, New Mexico, area to determine if indoor use of this coal might be contributing to some of the respiratory health problems experienced by the residents. Researchers in this study will (1) examine respiratory health data, (2) identify stove type and use, (3) analyze samples of coal that are used locally, and (4) measure and characterize air quality inside selected homes. This Fact Sheet summarizes the interim results of the study in both English and Navajo.
Fact Sheet↗
Navajo coal and air quality in Shiprock, New Mexico
Among the Navajo people, high levels of respiratory disease, such as asthma, exist in a population with low rates of cigarette smoking. Air quality outdoors and indoors affects respiratory health. Many Navajo Nation residents burn locally mined coal in their homes for heat, as coal is the most economical energy source. The U.S. Geological Survey and Dine College, in cooperation with the Navajo Division of Health, are conducting a study in the Shiprock, New Mexico, area to determine if indoor use of this coal might be contributing to some of the respiratory health problems experienced by the residents. Researchers in this study will (1) examine respiratory health data, (2) identify stove type and use, (3) analyze samples of coal that are used locally, and (4) measure and characterize air quality inside selected homes. This Fact Sheet summarizes the interim results of the study in both English and Navajo. This Fact Sheet is available in three versions: * English [800-KB PDF file ] * Navajo [computer must have Navajo language fonts installed - 304-KB PDF file] * Image of the Navajo language version [19.8-MB PDF file]
Fact Sheet↗
Planning for an uncertain future - Monitoring, integration, and adaptation
The 6.7 billion human inhabitants of the earth have the ability to drastically alter ecosystems and the populations of species that have taken eons to evolve. By better understanding how our actions affect the environment, we stand a better chance of designing successful strategies to manage ecosystems sustainably. Toward this end, the Third Interagency Conference on Research in the Watersheds (ICRW) was convened in Estes Park, CO, on September 8-11, 2008. The Conference provided a forum to present adaptive management as a practical tool for learning how to manage complex ecosystems more sustainably. Further complexity introduced by spatially variable and continuously changing environmental drivers favors this management approach because of its emphasis on adaptation in response to changing conditions or ineffective actions. For climate change in particular, an adaptive approach can more effectively accommodate the uncertainty in future climate scenarios. Scenarios compiled by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change are built on distinct economic, energy, and societal models. The scenarios predict potential changes in greenhouse gases, temperature, precipitation, and atmospheric aerosols, which would have direct or indirect impacts on the timing, volume, and quality of runoff, vegetation, snowpack, stream temperature, groundwater, thawing permafrost, and icecaps. Through presentations and field trips, researchers and stakeholders described how their findings and issues fit into the adaptive management 'learning by doing' paradigm of Assess > Design > Implement > Monitor > Evaluate > Adjust > Assess.
Scientific Investigations Report↗
Exploration decisions and firms in the mineral industries
The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate how physical characteristics of deposits and results of past exploration enter future exploration decisions. A proposed decision model is presented that is consistent with a set of primitive probabilistic assumptions associated with deposit size distributions and discoverability. Analysis of optimal field exploration strategy showed the likely firm responses to alternative exploration taxes and effects on the distribution of future discoveries. Examination of the probabilistic elements of the decision model indicates that changes in firm expectations associated with the distribution of deposits cannot be totally offset by changes in economic variables.
Energy Economics↗
Reservoir thermal energy storage pre-assessment for the United States
Storing thermal energy underground for later use in electricity production or direct-use heating/cooling is a promising, viable, and economical green energy option. Reservoir thermal energy storage (RTES) is one such option, which stores energy in underutilized permeable strata with low ambient groundwater flow rates and more geochemically evolved (e.g. brackish/saline) waters relative to overlying principal aquifer systems. The U.S. Geological Survey has begun assessing RTES potential nationally by focusing on five generalized geologic regions (Basin and Range, Coastal Plain, Illinois Basin, Michigan Basin, Pacific Northwest) across the United States. Hydrogeologic reservoir models are developed for the following eight metropolitan area cities within those regions to evaluate RTES performance across different climates and subsurface conditions: Albuquerque, New Mexico; Charleston, South Carolina; Chicago and Decatur, Illinois; Lansing, Michigan; Memphis, Tennessee; Phoenix, Arizona; and Portland, Oregon. Evaluated metrics include estimated required well spacing, thermal storage capacity, and thermal recovery efficiency through time. Also considered for each reservoir are potential complicating factors, including reservoir depth, thermally driven free convection, and groundwater salinity. This work focuses on direct-use cooling because the need for cooling modern office buildings greatly exceeds that for heating in most parts of the country (Falta and others, 2016); however, the evaluated metrics are also relevant to heating and electricity applications. Results indicate that favorable RTES conditions exist in each region, with the Coastal Plain and Basin and Range being especially favorable for thermal storage capacity, while the Pacific Northwest and Michigan Basin excel at energy recovery for the evaluated cooling application. The results underscore the utility of developing maps of thermal storage capacity, subsurface temperature models, and volumetric estimates of thermal storage capacity to serve as key RTES resource classification standards. Overall, this pre-assessment provides a basic understanding of RTES potential in several cities and geologic regions throughout the country and will aid ongoing thermal energy storage assessment efforts.
Arizona, Illinois, Michigan, New Mexico, Oregon, S↗
The World Coal Quality Inventory: South America
Executive Summary-Introduction: The concepts of a global environment and economy are strongly and irrevocably linked to global energy issues. Worldwide coal production and international coal trade are projected to increase during the next several decades in an international energy mix that is still strongly dependent on fossil fuels. Therefore, worldwide coal use will play an increasingly visible role in global environmental, economic, and energy forums. Policy makers require information on coal, including coal quality data, to make informed decisions regarding domestic coal resource allocation, import needs and export opportunities, foreign policy objectives, technology transfer policies, foreign investment prospects, environmental and health assessments, and byproduct use and disposal issues. The development of a worldwide, reliable, coal quality database would help ensure the most economically and environmentally efficient global use of coal. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with many agencies and scientists from the world's coal producing countries, originally undertook a project to obtain representative samples of coal from most of the world's producing coal provinces during a limited period of time (roughly 1998-2005), which is called the World Coal Quality Inventory (WoCQI). The multitude of producing coal mines, coal occurrences, or limited accessibility to sites in some countries can preclude collecting more than a single sample from a mine. In some areas, a single sample may represent an entire coal mining region or basin. Despite these limitations in sampling and uneven distribution of sample collection, the analytical results can still provide a general overview of world coal quality. The USGS intends to present the WoCQI data in reports and, when possible, in Geographic Information System (GIS) products that cover important coal bearing and producing regions.
Open-File Report↗
Coalbed natural gas exploration, drilling activities, and geologic test results, 2007-2010
The U.S. Geological Survey, in partnership with the U.S. Bureau of Land Management, the North Slope Borough, and the Arctic Slope Regional Corporation conducted a four-year study designed to identify, define, and delineate a shallow coalbed natural gas (CBNG) resource with the potential to provide locally produced, affordable power to the community of Wainwright, Alaska. From 2007 through 2010, drilling and testing activities conducted at three sites in or near Wainwright, identified and evaluated an approximately 7.5-ft-thick, laterally continuous coalbed that contained significant quantities of CBNG. This coalbed, subsequently named the Wainwright coalbed, was penetrated at depths ranging from 1,167 ft to 1,300 ft below land surface. Core samples were collected from the Wainwright coalbed at all three drill locations and desorbed-gas measurements were taken from seventeen 1-ft-thick sections of the core. These measurements indicate that the Wainwright coalbed contains enough CBNG to serve as a long-term energy supply for the community. Although attempts to produce viable quantities of CBNG from the Wainwright coalbed proved unsuccessful, it seems likely that with proper well-field design and by utilizing currently available drilling and reservoir stimulation techniques, this CBNG resource could be developed as a long-term economically viable energy source for Wainwright.
Alaska↗
Advancing geophysical techniques to image a stratigraphic hydrothermal resource
Sedimentary-hosted geothermal energy systems are permeable structural, structural-stratigraphic, and/or stratigraphic horizons with sufficient temperature for direct use and/or electricity generation. Sedimentary-hosted (i.e., stratigraphic) geothermal reservoirs may be present in multiple locations across the central and eastern Great Basin of the USA, thereby constituting a potentially large base of untapped, economically accessible energy resources. Sandia National Laboratories has partnered with a multi-disciplinary group of collaborators to evaluate a stratigraphic system in Steptoe Valley, Nevada using both established and novel geophysical imaging techniques. The goal of this study is to inform an optimized strategy for subsequent exploration and development of this and analogous resources. Building from prior Nevada Play Fairway Analysis (PFA), this team is primarily 1) collecting additional geophysical data, 2) employing novel joint geophysical inversion/modeling techniques to update existing 3D geologic models, and 3) integrating the geophysical results to produce a working, geologically constrained thermo-hydrological reservoir model. Prior PFA work highlights Steptoe Valley as a favorable resource basin that likely has both sedimentary and hydrothermal characteristics. However, there remains significant uncertainty on the nature and architecture of the resource(s) at depth, which increases the risk in exploratory drilling. Newly acquired gravity, magnetic, magnetotelluric, and controlled-source electromagnetic data, in conjunction with new and preceding geoscientific measurements and observations, are being integrated and evaluated in this study for efficacy in understanding stratigraphic geothermal resources and mitigating exploration risk. Furthermore, the influence of hydrothermal activity on sedimentary-hosted reservoirs in favorable structural settings (i.e., whether fault-controlled systems may locally enhance temperature and permeability in some deep stratigraphic reservoirs) will also be evaluated. This paper provides details and current updates on the course of this study in-progress.
Geothermal Resources Council Transactions↗
Geothermal district energy systems coupled with seasonal underground thermal energy storage: A U.S. techno-economic screening by climate and geology
In the United States, cooling-dominated commercial building loads can cause geothermal heat pump-based district energy systems to accumulate a long-term subsurface thermal imbalance, motivating the incorporation of seasonal underground thermal energy storage. We developed a transferable workflow to evaluate geothermal district systems that pair ground heat exchangers with seasonal underground thermal energy storage. Using standardized hourly loads for seven commercial buildings and a uniform cost framework, we simulated ten U.S. cities with a physics-based ground heat exchanger model, subsurface storage simulations, and economic assessment to isolate the roles of climate and hydrogeology. In cooling-dominated cities, underground thermal energy storage supplied the majority of annual cooling, cutting electricity use and summer peaks substantially while achieving levelized costs comparable to or below conventional chiller-boiler plants. In cooler climates, the storage share shrunk, required borefield size and costs rose, and levelized cost of energy increased nearly linearly with declining underground thermal energy storage fraction, indicating storage fraction as the primary economic lever. Sensitivity analysis showed capital risk dominated by borefield drilling and surface heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning and piping, with underground thermal energy storage costs secondary. This workflow provides a transparent foundation for site-specific design and screening of next-generation geothermal district energy systems.
Arizona, Illinois, Maryland, Michigan, Mississippi↗
Chapter 4: The GIS Project for the Geologic Assessment of Undiscovered Oil and Gas in the Upper Cretaceous Navarro and Taylor Groups, Western Gulf Province, Texas
A geographic information system (GIS) focusing on the Upper Cretaceous Navarro and Taylor Groups in the Gulf Coast region was developed as a visual-analysis tool for the U.S. Geological Survey's 2003 assessment of undiscovered, technically recoverable oil and natural gas resources in the Western Gulf Province. The Central Energy Resources Team of the U.S. Geological Survey has also developed an Internet Map Service to deliver the GIS data to the general public. This mapping tool utilizes information from a database about the oil and natural gas endowment of the United States - including physical locations of geologic and geographic data - and converts the data into visual layers. Portrayal and analysis of geologic features on an interactive map provide an excellent tool for understanding domestic oil and gas resources for strategic planning, formulating economic and energy policies, evaluating lands under the purview of the Federal Government, and developing sound environmental policies. Assessment results can be viewed and analyzed or downloaded from the internet web site.
Data Series↗
Chapter 7. The GIS project for the geologic assessment of undiscovered oil and gas in the Cotton Valley group and Travis Peak and Hosston formations, East Texas basin and Louisiana-Mississippi salt basins provinces
A geographic information system (GIS) focusing on the Upper Jurassic-Lower Cretaceous Cotton Valley Group and the Lower Cretaceous Travis Peak and Hosston Formations in the northern Gulf Coast region was developed as a visual-analysis tool for the U.S. Geological Survey's 2002 assessment of undiscovered, technically recoverable oil and natural gas resources in the East Texas Basin and Louisiana-Mississippi Salt Basins Provinces. The Central Energy Resources Team of the U.S. Geological Survey has also developed an Internet Map Service to deliver the GIS data to the public. This mapping tool utilizes information from a database about the oil and natural gas endowment of the United States-including physical locations of geologic and geographic data-and converts the data into visual layers. Portrayal and analysis of geologic features on an interactive map provide an excellent tool for understanding domestic oil and gas resources for strategic planning, formulating economic and energy policies, evaluating lands under the purview of the Federal Government, and developing sound environmental policies. Assessment results can be viewed and analyzed or downloaded from the internet web site, http://energy.cr.usgs.gov/oilgas/noga/ .
Alabama, Arkansas. Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mi↗