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New data yield new geologic insights at the Fallon FORGE site, Carson Sink Region, Nevada

The geologic structure beneath the Fallon Frontier Observatory for Research in Geothermal Energy (FORGE) site represents a record of the Mesozoic through Cenozoic tectonism, volcanism, and sedimentation that has affected the Carson Sink local to Fallon, NV. A robust dataset confirms that the lithologic sequence consists of Quaternary through Miocene sedimentary and volcanic rocks resting non-conformably on Mesozoic crystalline basement. The basement consists of four lithologic units; 1) Triassic-Jurassic low-to-medium grade meta-rhyolites, 2) Jurassic low-to-medium grade quartzites and other metamorphosed marine sedimentary rocks, and 3) Jurassic low-to-medium grade meta-basalt and -basaltic-andesite lavas, all intruded by 4) Jurassic-Cretaceous quartz monzonite. The geologic section dips ~20-25° west, tilting that was accommodated by a predominant system of north-to-north-northeast striking, east and west moderately-to-steeply dipping normal faults. The above, relatively broad-scale characteristics of the geologic framework of the Fallon site have been developed throughout the ~3 year duration of the project. With the collection of new data and re-analysis of existing data in Phase 2B of the Fallon FORGE project, our detailed understanding of the relatively finer-scale aspects of the geologic framework, including aspects of the stratigraphic sequence and the locations and attitudes of individual faults have evolved and an updated 3D geologic map has been developed. Here, we compare the Phase 1 3D geologic map to the Phase 2B 3D geologic map and demonstrate the evolution of our understanding of the geologic framework of the Fallon site and the value of the new data that was collected in Phase 2B in developing this updated framework.

Geothermal Resources Council Transactions↗

Diel temperature signals track seasonal shifts in localized groundwater contributions to headwater streamflow generation at network scale

Groundwater contributions to streamflow sustain aquatic ecosystem resilience; streams without significant groundwater inputs often have well-coupled air and water temperatures that degrade cold-water habitat during warm low flow periods. Widespread uncertainty in stream-groundwater connectivity across space and time has created disparate predictions of energy and nutrient fluxes across headwater networks, hindering predictions of cold-water habitat resilience under climate change scenarios. Recently, annual paired air and water temperature signals have been harnessed to indicate stream water thermal sensitivity and the dominance of deep versus shallow groundwater influence, although the utility of diel air–water temperature signal metrics for hydrologic inference has remained unexplored. Here we analyzed two consecutive years of locally paired, air–water temperature data from 47 headwater stream sites in the Catskill Mountains, New York, USA, and discovered characteristic seasonal patterns in diel temperature signal sinusoid metrics (amplitude ratio, phase lag, and mean ratio) driven by shifts in streamflow generation mechanisms and stream network position. Hydrologic interpretations of observed patterns were supported by stream heat budget model scenarios and additional analysis of paired air–water temperature data from two streams in Shenandoah National Park, Virginia, USA, with well characterized stream-groundwater connectivity. We found that within smaller tributaries, streamflow generation transitions from runoff to groundwater dominance were driven by hillslope drying during seasonal periods of lower precipitation. This was evidenced by significant correlations (p < 0.01) between daily water:air temperature signal amplitudes (non-linear decreases of ∼ 50 %) and derived base-flow index at 22 of the 28 sites, indicating enhanced local groundwater influence on streamflow promotes decoupling of diel air–water temperature signals. Additionally, ratios between daily water:air temperature signal means were lower in tributaries (∼0.68) when compared to main-stem (∼0.8) sites, increasing linearly throughout the observational period. In conceptual stream heat budget models, groundwater inflow had minimal effects on daily phase lags (∼0.2 hr), but increases in fractional groundwater discharge (0–50 %) depressed daily amplitude (∼20 % to 50 %) and mean ratios (∼15 %), supporting the sensitivity of daily metrics to interpreted changes in seasonal groundwater contributions to streamflow. During observational periods (i.e., April through October 2021 and 2022), significant differences (p < 0.01) between tributary and main-stem air–water metrics occurred when base-flow contributions were highest (∼0.93 vs. ∼ 0.68), as sites lower in the network had daily temperature metrics dominated by stream channel thermal inertia, rather than local groundwater connectivity, showing enhanced air–water diel signal coupling during warmer, drier periods. Divergent air temperature coupling across the network was interpreted as being driven by distance from local groundwater source zones, additional lateral groundwater inflows do not contribute a meaningful fraction to channel discharge lower in the network. Given the growing footprint of stream temperature observations, diel air–water temperature signals can provide distributed metrics sensitive to upstream groundwater discharge. Consequently, these metrics can support ongoing efforts by resource managers and researchers seeking to forecast the resilience of cold-water habitat to climate warming and changing precipitation regimes in mountain headwater streams.

New York, Virginia↗

Methods to determine pumped irrigation-water withdrawals from the Snake River between Upper Salmon Falls and Swan Falls Dams, Idaho, using electrical power data, 1990-95

Pumped withdrawals compose most of the irrigation-water diversions from the Snake River between Upper Salmon Falls and Swan Falls Dams in southwestern Idaho. Pumps at 32 sites along the reach lift water as high as 745 feet to irrigate croplands on plateaus north and south of the river. The number of pump sites at which withdrawals are being continuously measured has been steadily decreasing, from 32 in 1990 to 7 in 1998. A cost-effective and accurate means of estimating annual irrigation-water withdrawals at pump sites that are no longer continuously measured was needed. Therefore, the U.S. Geological Survey began a study in 1998, as part of its Water-Use Program, to determine power-consumption coeffi- cients (PCCs) for each pump site so that withdrawals could be estimated by using electrical powerconsumption and total head data. PCC values for each pump site were determined by using withdrawal data that were measured by the U.S. Geological Survey during 1990&ndash;92 and 1994&ndash;95, energy data reported by Idaho Power Company during the same period, and total head data collected at each site during a field inventory in 1998. Individual average annual withdrawals for the 32 pump sites ranged from 1,120 to 44,480 acre-feet; average PCC values ranged from 103 to 1,248 kilowatthours per acre-foot. During the 1998 field season, power demand, total head, and withdrawal at 18 sites were measured to determine 1998 PCC values. Most of the 1998 PCC values were within 10 percent of the 5-year average, which demonstrates that withdrawals for a site that is no longer continuously measured can be calculated with reasonable accuracy by using the PCC value determined from this study and annual power-consumption data. K-factors, coefficients that describe the amount of energy necessary to lift water, were determined for each pump site by using values of PCC and total head and ranged from 1.11 to 1.89 kilowatthours per acre-foot per foot. Statistical methods were used to define the relations among PCC values and selected pumpsite characteristics. Multiple correlation analysis between average PCC values and total head, total horsepower, and total number of pumps revealed the strongest correlation was between average PCC and total head. Linear regression of these two variables resulted in a strong coefficient of determination R 2 =0 .9 86) and a representative K-factor of 1.463. Pump sites were subdivided into two groups on the basis of total head&mdash;0 to 300 feet and greater than 300 feet. Regression of average PCC values for eight pump sites with total head less than 300 feet produced a good correlation of determination (R 2 =0.870) and a representative K-factor of 1.682. The second group consisted of 10 pump sites with total head greater than 300 feet; regression produced a correlation of R 2 =0.939 and a representative K-factor of 1.405. Data on pump-site characteristics were successfully used to determine individual PCC and K-factor values. Statistical relations between pumpsite characteristics and PCC values were defined and used to determine regression equations that resulted in good coefficients of determination and representative K-factors. The individual PCC values will be used in the future to calculate irrigation- water withdrawals at sites that are no longer continuously measured. The representative K-factors and regression equations will be used to calculate irrigation-water withdrawals at sites that have not been previously measured and where total head and power consumption are known.

Idaho↗

Hydrogeology and ground-water quality of confined aquifers in buried valleys in Rock County, Minnesota and Minnehaha County, South Dakota

Confined glacial and bedrock aquifers are present within Quaternary and Cretaceous deposits that fill buried valleys incised in the Sioux Quartzite surface in Rock County, in southwestern Minnesota and Minnehaha County, South Dakota. This report describes the areal extent, thickness, water-bearing characteristics, water-supply potential, and water-quality characteristics of confined aquifers within buriedvalley deposits in Rock County. Hydrogeologic units present within buried-valley deposits in Rock County include unconfined and confined drift aquifers, undifferentiated Cretaceous aquifers, the Split Rock Creek aquifer, and interbedded confining units. The undifferentiated Cretaceous aquifers consist of sandstone layers within interbedded claystone and siltstone overlying the Split Rock Creek Formation or Sioux Quartzite. The Split Rock Creek Formation consisting of sand units (comprising the Split Rock Creek aquifer) and interbedded layers of siltstone and claystone, is present in buried valleys incised in the Sioux Quartzite surface in southern and possibly northeastern Rock County, Minnesota. Confined drift aquifers with thicknesses greater than 5 feet were penetrated in 6 of 10 test holes. Thicknesses of the confined drift aquifers in Rock County range from at least 2 to greater than 32 feet. Estimated horizontal hydraulic conductivity for a confined drift aquifer derived from specific-capacity information from one domestic well log was 73 feet per day. No major (thickness greater than 5 feet) undifferentiated Cretaceous aquifers were penetrated in 10 test holes. Thicknesses of the undifferentiated Cretaceous aquifers compiled from the geologic logs for four domestic wells ranged from at least 7 feet to greater than 46 feet. Estimated horizontal hydraulic conductivity for an undifferentiated Cretaceous aquifer derived from specific-capacity information from one domestic well log was 55 feet per day. Cumulative sand thicknesses for the Split Rock Creek aquifer in 10 test holes ranged from zero to 128.5 feet in 2 to 6 layers. The largest cumulative sand thicknesses were penetrated near the southern margin of the Sioux Quartzite high in northern Rock County and in an east-west trending buried valley (Brandon Embayment) entering Rock County from Minnehaha County, South Dakota. These comparatively large cumulative sand thicknesses are probably due to a high-energy depositional environment. Estimated horizontal hydraulic conductivities for the Split Rock Creek aquifer in Rock County derived from analysis of three slug tests were 0.1, 0.2, and 1 foot per day. The corresponding aquifer transmissivities, calculated as the horizontal hydraulic conductivity multiplied by the cumulative sand thickness, were 3, 16, and 130 feet squared per day. The greatest horizontal hydraulic conductivity and transmissivity estimates were for a site near the southern margin of the Sioux Quartzite high. The watersupply potential of the Split Rock Creek aquifer in Rock County is generally limited by the low transmissivity of the aquifer due to the fineness of the aquifer material (generally very fine- to fine-grained sand). Recharge to the Split Rock Creek aquifer is thought to be derived primarily from hydraulic connection to the Sioux Quartzite aquifer as infiltration of precipitation moves through the fractures and joints of the Sioux Quartzite to the Split Rock Creek aquifer. The regional directions of flow in the aquifer are to the south away from the Sioux Quartzite high and to the west in the Brandon Embayment in Minnehaha County and its east-west trending extension into Rock County. The predominant ions in water from two wells screened in confined drift aquifers in Rock County were calcium and bicarbonate and in water from a third well were calcium and sulfate. The predominant ions in water from one well screened in an undifferentiated Cretaceous aquifer in Rock County were calcium and bicarbonate and in water from a second well were calcium and sulfate. The predominant ions in water from two wells screened in the Split Rock Creek aquifer in Rock County were calcium and bicarbonate and in water from a third well were calcium and sulfate.

Minnesota, South Dakota↗

Quantifying sea otter abundance, distribution, habitat use, and foraging intake in Cook Inlet, Alaska

Following near extirpation from the fur trade, sea otters ( Enhydra lutris ) have returned to occupy lower Cook Inlet since the 1950s, or earlier, with numbers increasing to ~11,000 and ~9,000 on the west and east side, respectively, by 2017. Northward range expansion on the west side has been negligible for decades with few animals found north of Kamishak Bay, while northward expansion on the east side has been more pronounced in recent decades. The reasons for these contrasting distribution patterns are not certain. Possible explanations for lack of expansion on the west side included 1) poor sea otter habitat north of Kamishak Bay; 2) adequate habitat north of Kamishak Bay but no incentive for sea otters to move north because of abundant food in Kamishak Bay, and/or sea otters discouraged from moving north of Kamishak Bay; 3) seasonal ice formation; or 4) seasonal presence of killer whales. This project was designed to document current sea otter abundance and distribution in lower Cook Inlet, including seasonal variation, and evaluate drivers of habitat use and foraging conditions, including how these overlap with Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) Lease Sale blocks. We found that the probability of sea otter presence in lower Cook Inlet was significantly related to depth and distance from shore with the highest probabilities of sea otter presence in areas ~7–8 kilometers (km) from shore in water ~20–30 meters (m) deep. Historical survey data suggest sea otter distribution has not changed dramatically since 2002, and while we detected significant seasonal changes including due to presence of heavy sea ice, the seasonal changes were modest and primarily related to locations with consistent winter ice formation on the west side of lower Cook Inlet. Overall, throughout the year, sea otters appeared to be utilizing most of the habitat within the 40-m depth contour on the east side of lower Cook Inlet, including Kachemak Bay. Sea otters on the west side reside largely within Kamishak Bay. Because of the shallow bathymetry of lower Cook Inlet, sea otters consistently occurred farther offshore than in many other areas of Alaska. The presence of sea otters, including females with pups, in these offshore waters indicates that sea otters can forage productively in these open water areas. Importantly, we documented that sea otters, including females with pups, occurred in most of the eastern BOEM lease blocks including the original Lease Sale 244 blocks 7064, 7114, 6162, 6310, 6360, 6410, 6458 and 6457. The relinquishments for these 7 leases were effective September 17, 2024: OCS-Y-02434 (block # 7064), OCS-Y-02435 (7114), OCS-Y-02436 (6162), OCS-Y-02438 (6357), OCS-Y-02442 (6407), OCS-Y02446 (6457), OCS-Y-02447 (6458) https://www.boem.gov/sites/default/files/documents/environment/Map%20of%20Active%20Leases%20 Cook%20Inlet%20OCS_0.pdf Regarding differential northward expansion on the east and west side of lower Cook Inlet, we found that wind and water circulation patterns make winter sea ice more prominent on the west side, but this had minimal effects on sea otter distribution. In addition, although there have been observations of killer whale ( Orcinus orca ) predation on sea otters in Cook Inlet, we did not see behavioral or distributional evidence that it was prevalent enough to have strong effects on sea otter habitat use. Benthic surveys using a remotely operated vehicle (ROV) indicated that epibenthic substrate and biological community heterogeneity differed between areas with and without otters, suggesting that these factors may explain the current distribution of otters within lower Cook Inlet. However, ROV surveys cannot assess infaunal prey abundance, making assessments of the role of prey availability difficult. The existence of a healthy Pacific razor clam ( Siliqua patula ) fishery along western lower Cook Inlet along the Lake Clark coast north of Kamishak Bay suggests there may still be a resource base for eventual expansion of sea otters into this area. Our shore-based forage observations indicated that sea otters exist near carrying capacity densities relative to nearshore prey resources. However, our distribution model suggests the bulk of the population lives offshore beyond our ability to observe their feeding activity. The fact that sea otters are a consistent presence in offshore areas suggests that prey resources in these areas were relatively abundant in comparison to nearshore prey resources, making foraging in offshore areas, with water depths of 0–40 m, energetically profitable. Prey types in these offshore areas of lower Cook Inlet likely included epifauna such as crabs and large urchins, in addition to infaunal clams based on the soft substrate habitat types that characterize lower Cook Inlet. Collectively, our results suggest that sea otters occupy most areas of lower Cook Inlet with appropriate benthic habitat types and prey resources, which includes areas within BOEM Lease Sale blocks. With the exception of the Lake Clark coast, sea otters may be approaching a food- and habitat-limited distribution and carrying capacity, suggesting that the current status of sea otters in lower Cook Inlet is likely to remain similar in the absence of significant changes to prey, habitat, predation, or anthropogenic disturbance.

Alaska↗

Simulated effects of existing and proposed surface-water impoundments and gas-well pads on streamflow and suspended sediment in the Cypress Creek watershed, Arkansas

Cypress Creek is located in central Arkansas and is the main tributary to Brewer Lake, which serves as the primary water supply for Conway, Arkansas, and the surrounding areas. A model of the Cypress Creek watershed was developed and calibrated in cooperation with Southwestern Energy Company using detailed precipitation, streamflow, and discrete suspended-sediment data collected from 2009 through 2012. These data were used with a Hydrologic Simulation Program&mdash;FORTRAN model to address different potential gas-extraction activities within the watershed. The calibrated Hydrologic Simulation Program&mdash;FORTRAN model was used to simulate four land-use scenarios and examine the potential effects of these land-use changes on the streamflow and water quality within the Cypress Creek watershed. These simulated scenarios included (1) the conversion of all nonforested land to forest, representing a time period before extensive grazing activities and no gas-extraction activities; (2) a land-use change to that of 1949, representing a time period with some grazing activities and no gas-extraction activities; (3) a time period with current land-use conditions, but without any gas-extraction activities, that is, the exclusion of gas-well pads/pipelines, associated gravel roads, and surface-water impoundments; and (4) a time period with current land-use conditions, but with increased gas-extraction activities (for example, increased gas-well pad and surface-water impoundment activities) to represent a possible future natural gas full-development condition for the area. A current-conditions simulation also was built and calibrated and represents the current conditions (2013) within the watershed. This simulation was used as the comparison basis for the four land-use scenarios described above. The current-conditions simulation used the 2006 land-use conditions, which consisted primarily of forest and pasture, as well as the current (2013) 35 gas-well pads and pipelines and 6 surface-water impoundments, which account for approximately 1.6 percent of the land use. Simulating a time period before extensive-grazing activities and no gas-extraction activities for scenario 1 resulted in a decrease in suspended-sediment loads and volume of streamflow within the Cypress Creek watershed compared to the current-conditions simulation. Simulating a time period before any gas-extraction activities but with some grazing activities for scenario 2 also resulted in a decrease in suspended-sediment loads and volume of streamflow within the Cypress Creek watershed. Simulating current conditions, but without any natural gas-pad land use or related activities (including pipelines and associated gravel roads), for scenario 3 resulted in mostly unchanged suspended-sediment loads and volume of streamflow within the Cypress Creek watershed, as compared to the current-conditions simulation. Finally, simulating potential future conditions of increased gas-well pad and surface-water impoundment activities for scenario 4 resulted in a decrease (compared to the current-conditions simulation) in suspended-sediment loads and a slight increase of volume of streamflow within the Cypress Creek watershed. The Arkansas Natural Resources Commission and the Arkansas Department of Environmental Quality list suspended sediment from &ldquo;poor pastures&rdquo; as a primary source of nonpoint-source pollution in north-central Arkansas, but unpaved (gravel) roads are another important source of suspended sediment. Because of the high sediment-loading rates associated with gravel roads and the large amount of pasture within the watershed, the factors most responsible for suspended sediment within the Cypress Creek watershed are likely associated more with the pastureland and gravel roads, than factors associated with gas-well pads/pipelines.

Arkansas↗

Evapotranspiration from selected fallowed agricultural fields on the Tule Lake National Wildlife Refuge, California, during May to October 2000

An investigation of evapotranspiration, vegetation quantity and composition, and depth to the water table below the land surface was made at three sites in two fallowed agricultural lots on the 15,800-hectare Tule Lake National Wildlife Refuge in northern California during the 2000 growing season. All three sites had been farmed during 1999, but were not irrigated since the 1999 growing season. Vegetation at the lot C1B and lot 6 stubble sites included weedy species and small grain plants. The lot 6 cover crop site supported a crop of cereal rye that had been planted during the previous winter. Percentage of coverage by live vegetation ranged from 0 to 43.2 percent at the lot C1B site, from approximately 0 to 63.2 percent at the lot 6 stubble site, and it was estimated to range from 0 to greater than 90 percent at the lot 6 cover crop site. Evapotranspiration was measured using the Bowen ratio energy balance technique and it was estimated using a model that was based on the Priestley-Taylor equation and a model that was based on reference evapotranspiration with grass as the reference crop. Total evapotranspiration during May to October varied little among the three evapotranspiration measurement sites, although the timing of evapotranspiration losses did vary among the sites. Total evapotranspiration from the lot C1B site was 426 millimeters, total evapotranspiration from the lot 6 stubble site was 444 millimeters, and total evapotranspiration from the lot 6 cover crop site was 435 millimeters. The months of May to July accounted for approximately 78 percent of the total evapotranspiration from the lot C1B site, approximately 63 percent of the evapotranspiration from the lot 6 stubble site, and approximately 86 percent of the total evapotranspiration from the lot 6 cover crop site. Estimated growing season precipitation accounted for 16 percent of the growing-season evapotranspiration at the lot C1B site and for 17 percent of the growing-season evapotranspiration at the lot 6 stubble and cover crop sites. The ratio of evapotranspiration rate to the reference evapotranspiration rate was strongly correlated with percentage of site coverage by vegetation at the lot C1B and lot 6 stubble sites (correlation coefficient = 0.95, sample size = 6), where percentage of site coverage was determined from quantitative vegetation surveys. It is concluded that evapotranspiration was mediated by the vegetation at all three sites, and that the differences in seasonal timing of evapotranspiration losses were caused by differences in timing of vegetation growth and development and senescence among the sites. Depth to the water table below the land surface at lot C1B ranged from 0.67 meters in early July to greater than 1.39 meters in late August. Depth to the water table at lot 6 ranged from 0.77 meter in late May to greater than 1.40 meters in late August.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

Simulated effects of projected withdrawals from the Wenonah-Mount Laurel aquifer on ground-water levels in the Camden, New Jersey, area and vicinity

The Wenonah-Mount Laurel aquifer is being considered as a potential source of future water supply for the Camden, New Jersey, area. The deeper Potomac- Raritan-Magothy aquifer system is currently the major major source of water supply for the area, but its use may be curtailed or reduced by 35 percent of 1983 withdrawals through its designation by the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection and Energy as "Water Supply Critical Area#2." Withdrawals from the Wenonah-Mount Laurel aquifer currently (1989) total about 7 million gallons per day. The anticipated use of this aquifer by communities with access to it, as an alternative supply, could increase to more than 14 million gallons per day by 2020. If the communities of Clayton and Glassboro decrease their withdrawals from the Potomac-Raritan-Magothy aquifer system by 50 percent or cease them entirely because of their proximity to saline water, the use of Wenonah-Mount Laurel aquifer could increase to greater than 15 million gallons per day by 2020. Simulation of the ground-water system indicates that the projected increase in withdrawals will cause cones of depression in the potentiometric surface of the Wenonah-Mount Laurel aquifer in the Camden metro- politan area by 2020 that extend to depths ranging from 10 feet above sea level to 60 feet below sea level. This represents a secline of about 40 to 100 feet thr 1990 conditions. Withdrawals in northeastern Burlington County will cause a large cone of depression that, by 2020, will extend to depths of about 220 feet below sea level, represent- ing a decline of about 140 feet from 1990 conditions. Simulation results indicate that water levels in the Wenonah-Mount Laurel aquifer near the Salem Nuclear Power Plant are somewhat insensitive to withdrawals elsewhere in the aquifer. In some areas, especially in Burlington County, the cones of depression have developed in proximity to the aquifer-outcrop area and could induce infiltration from streams crossing the outcrop. Because of the hydraulic connection to adjacent aquifers, future management plans need to be developed in a compre- hensive manner with regard to all aquifers. Further study of the aquifer in Salem County could provide additional information on the hydraulic connection to Delaware Bay and the potential for saltwater intrusion.

New Jersey↗

A Study of earthquake losses in the Puget Sound, Washington, area

The Puget Sound Basin has a history of frequent seismic activity, including two recent damaging events. The greatest extent of urban development and the most densely populated area generally correspond to the area where the greatest energy release has been experienced. For this study two earthquakes have been simulated, each having magnitude 7.5, a reasonable maximum value for this area. Analysis of the events indicate that under the worst condition as many as 2,200 people would die, and 8,700 additional persons would suffer injuries requiring hospitalization or immediate medical treatment. Such casualties would occur under the worst conditions of exposure, as during the rush hours, but could be approximately as great at any time during the working day. It is possible that as many as 23,500 people would be homeless or would require temporary shelter pending reestablishment or relocation. Conditions of exposure would be altered during the nighttime, causing a drastic reduction in casulaty potentials to a level of about 5-10 percent of the daytime losses. Thus, the time of greatest concern is during the normal working day, and the areas of concern are the highly urbanized sections of the Puget Sound Basin. This study is intended to inform those agencies serving the region of potential hazard to people, structures, and lifeline functions, in such a way that the administrators of emergency services can proceed with confidence in planning response to earthquake disaster. Figure 1 shows the extent of the study area and the location of the epicenters of the postulated earthquakes. A comparison of the two isoseismal maps as they apply to each county, in tables 1 through 6, emphasizes the marked change in intensity at a site as the simulated earthquake is moved from a close to a distant location. The Modified Mercalli Intensity scale is defined on page 284. The report is concerned not only with human casualties and displacement, but also with impairment or destruction of essential facilities critical to the continuing normal functioning of the area. This includes hospitals and medical personnel, police and fire department equipment and personnel, communications, and utilities. The total damage profile was developed with careful consideration of conditions of the seismicity, geological history, population density and distribution, and physical status of structural and lifeline installations throughout the region. There is a potential for broad fluctuation in the casualty figures resulting from the chance positioning of people at the time of the occurrence of the earthquake. An example is that of the Lafayette Elementary School in West Seattle, where, in the 1949 earthquake, a large brick gable over the entry collapsed directly onto an area normally used for assembly of pupils. Such assembly regularly occurred at 11:55 a.m. The earthquake occurred at 11:57 a.m., but fortunately during the spring vacation. Following a large earthquake, effective remedial steps to maintain or to return to operation the essential public services will depend upon the prompt and informed actions of public agencies. Response planning should include not only consideration of disaster problems within a particular jurisdiction but also sharing of assistance with neighboring jurisdictions. Moderate response requirements experienced in one area can free resources to aid communities in more heavily damaged portions of the affected area. The damage profile is quite different among the six counties within the study. The remainder of the summary is devoted to a brief general assessment of possible problems in each of the counties. A detailed development and presentation of each of the problems is covered in the text of the report.

Washington↗

Ground-water discharge determined from measurements of evapotranspiration, other available hydrologic components, and shallow water-level changes, Oasis Valley, Nye County, Nevada

Oasis Valley is an area of natural ground-water discharge within the Death Valley regional ground-water flow system of southern Nevada and adjacent California. Ground water discharging at Oasis Valley is replenished from inflow derived from an extensive recharge area that includes the northwestern part of the Nevada Test Site (NTS). Because nuclear testing has introduced radionuclides into the subsurface of the NTS, the U.S. Department of Energy currently is investigating the potential transport of these radionuclides by ground water flow. To better evaluate any potential risk associated with these test-generated contaminants, a number of studies were undertaken to accurately quantify discharge from areas downgradient in the regional ground-water flow system from the NTS. This report refines the estimate of ground-water discharge from Oasis Valley. Ground-water discharge from Oasis Valley was estimated by quantifying evapotranspiration (ET), estimating subsurface outflow, and compiling ground-water withdrawal data. ET was quantified by identifying areas of ongoing ground-water ET, delineating areas of ET defined on the basis of similarities in vegetation and soil-moisture conditions, and computing ET rates for each of the delineated areas. A classification technique using spectral-reflectance characteristics determined from satellite imagery acquired in 1992 identified eight unique areas of ground-water ET. These areas encompass about 3,426 acres of sparsely to densely vegetated grassland, shrubland, wetland, and open water. Annual ET rates in Oasis Valley were computed with energy-budget methods using micrometeorological data collected at five sites. ET rates range from 0.6 foot per year in a sparse, dry saltgrass environment to 3.1 feet per year in dense meadow vegetation. Mean annual ET from Oasis Valley is estimated to be about 7,800 acre-feet. Mean annual ground-water discharge by ET from Oasis Valley, determined by removing the annual local precipitation component of 0.5 foot, is estimated to be about 6,000 acre-feet. Annual subsurface outflow from Oasis Valley into the Amargosa Desert is estimated to be between 30 and 130 acre-feet. Estimates of total annual ground-water withdrawal from Oasis Valley by municipal and non-municipal users in 1996 and 1999 are 440 acre-feet and 210 acre-feet, respectively. Based on these values, natural annual ground-water discharge from Oasis Valley is about 6,100 acre-feet. Total annual discharge was 6,500 acre-ft in 1996 and 6,300 acre-ft in 1999. This quantity of natural ground-water discharge from Oasis Valley exceeds the previous estimate made in 1962 by a factor of about 2.5. Water levels were measured in Oasis Valley to gain additional insight into the ET process. In shallow wells, water levels showed annual fluctuations as large as 7 feet and daily fluctuations as large as 0.2 foot. These fluctuations may be attributed to water loss associated with evapotranspiration. In shallow wells affected by ET, annual minimum depths to water generally occurred in winter or early spring shortly after daily ET reached minimum rates. Annual maximum depths to water generally occurred in late summer or fall shortly after daily ET reached maximum rates. The magnitude of daily water-level fluctuations generally increased as ET increased and decreased as depth to water increased.

Nevada↗

Environmentalism and natural aggregate mining

Sustaining a developed economy and expanding a developing one require the use of large volumes of natural aggregate. Almost all human activity (commercial, recreational, or leisure) is transacted in or on facilities constructed from natural aggregate. In our urban and suburban worlds, we are almost totally dependent on supplies of water collected behind dams and transported through aqueducts made from concrete. Natural aggregate is essential to the facilities that produce energy—hydroelectric dams and coal-fired powerplants. Ironically, the utility created for mankind by the use of natural aggregate is rarely compared favorably with the environmental impacts of mining it. Instead, the empty quarries and pits are seen as large negative environmental consequences. At the root of this disassociation is the philosophy of environmentalism, which flavors our perceptions of the excavation, processing, and distribution of natural aggregate. The two end-member ideas in this philosophy are ecocentrism and anthropocentrism. Ecocentrism takes the position that the natural world is a organism whose arteries are the rivers—their flow must not be altered. The soil is another vital organ and must not be covered with concrete and asphalt. The motto of the ecocentrist is “man must live more lightly on the land.” The anthropocentrist wants clean water and air and an uncluttered landscape for human use. Mining is allowed and even encouraged, but dust and noise from quarry and pit operations must be minimized. The large volume of truck traffic is viewed as a real menace to human life and should be regulated and isolated. The environmental problems that the producers of natural aggregate (crushed stone and sand and gravel) face today are mostly difficult social and political concerns associated with the large holes dug in the ground and the large volume of heavy truck traffic associated with quarry and pit operations. These concerns have increased in recent years as society's demand for living space has encroached on the sites of production; in other words, the act of production has engendered condemnation. Many other environmental problems that are associated with dust and noise and blasting from quarry and pit operations have been reduced through the efficient use of technology. Recycling concrete in buildings, bridges, and roads and asphaltic pavements will ultimately reduce the demand for virgin natural aggregate. The impact created by the large holes in the ground required for the mining of natural aggregate can be greatly reduced by planning their reclamation before mining begins.

Natural Resources Research↗

Hydrogeology, ground-water quality, and the possible effects of a hypothetical radioactive-water spill, Plainsboro Township, New Jersey

Princeton University, under contract to the Department of Energy , maintains a Tokamak fusion test reactor in New Jersey. The U.S. Geological Survey investigated groundwater flow and estimated the effects of a hypothetical spill of radioactive water at the site on the local groundwater system. The study included test drilling; aquifer testing; measurement of water levels, infiltration capacity, and stream discharge; and a simulation of the hypothetical spill. The Triassic Stockton Formation-a water supply aquifer composed primarily of jointed siltstone and sandstone-underlies the site. The aquifer is confined by overlying weathered bedrock and underlying unjointed rock. Weathered bedrock is overlain by unconsolidated, partially saturated material which ranges from 6 to 39 ft in thickness. Groundwater recharge is by lateral flow into the study area, stream leakage, and precipitation. Discharge is by pumpage, evapotranspiration, stream inflow, and lateral flow out of the study area. Transmissivity of the aquifer is about 1,740 sq ft/day, and the storage coefficient is about 0.0002. The average linear velocity of groundwater at the site ranges from 100 to 270 ft/yr depending on location and time of year. The velocity over a large part of the site is controlled by on-site pumpage. Groundwater samples were collected and analyzed for common ions, trace metals, and tritium. The analyses reported no concentrations of common ions or trace metals which exceeded the criteria for drinking water standards recommended by the EPA, except for some instances of moderately high concentrations of iron and manganese. Iron and manganese are common in groundwater and surface water in the area and are not indicative of an on-site source of contamination. Tritium concentrations in the collected samples were also considered representative of background levels and were well below the maximum concentration permitted by the EPA. The fate of spilled radioactive water after a hypothetical accident would depend on the nature of the accident and weather. If the on-site pumpage continued after a spill, groundwater leaving the site probably would have only minimal tritium concentrations, but stream water leaving the site could contain significant tritium concentrations.

New Jersey↗

Extraction of hydrocarbons from high-maturity Marcellus Shale using supercritical carbon dioxide

Shale is now commonly exploited as a hydrocarbon resource. Due to the high degree of geochemical and petrophysical heterogeneity both between shale reservoirs and within a single reservoir, there is a growing need to find more efficient methods of extracting petroleum compounds (crude oil, natural gas, bitumen) from potential source rocks. In this study, supercritical carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) was used to extract n -aliphatic hydrocarbons from ground samples of Marcellus shale. Samples were collected from vertically drilled wells in central and western Pennsylvania, USA, with total organic carbon (TOC) content ranging from 1.5 to 6.2 wt %. Extraction temperature and pressure conditions (80°C and 21.7 MPa, respectively) were chosen to represent approximate in situ reservoir conditions at sample depth (1920–2280 m). Hydrocarbon yield was evaluated as a function of sample matrix particle size (sieve size) over the following size ranges: 1000–500 μm, 250–125 μm, and 63–25 μm. Several methods of shale characterization including Rock-Eval II pyrolysis, organic petrography, Brunauer–Emmett–Teller surface area, and X-ray diffraction analyses were also performed to better understand potential controls on extraction yields. Despite high sample thermal maturity, results show that supercritical CO 2 can liberate diesel-range ( n -C 11 through n -C 21 ) n -aliphatic hydrocarbons. The total quantity of extracted, resolvable n -aliphatic hydrocarbons ranges from approximately 0.3 to 12 mg of hydrocarbon per gram of TOC. Sieve size does have an effect on extraction yield, with highest recovery from the 250–125 μm size fraction. However, the significance of this effect is limited, likely due to the low size ranges of the extracted shale particles. Additional trends in hydrocarbon yield are observed among all samples, regardless of sieve size: 1) yield increases as a function of specific surface area ( r 2 = 0.78); and 2) both yield and surface area increase with increasing TOC content ( r 2 = 0.97 and 0.86, respectively). Given that supercritical CO 2 is able to mobilize residual organic matter present in overmature shales, this study contributes to a better understanding of the extent and potential factors affecting the extraction process.

Pennsylvania↗

River flow and riparian vegetation dynamics - implications for management of the Yampa River through Dinosaur National Monument

This report addresses the relation between flow of the Yampa River and occurrence of herbaceous and woody riparian vegetation in Dinosaur National Monument (DINO) with the goal of informing management decisions related to potential future water development. The Yampa River in DINO flows through diverse valley settings, from the relatively broad restricted meanders of Deerlodge Park to narrower canyons, including debris fan-affected reaches in the upper Yampa Canyon and entrenched meanders in Harding Hole and Laddie Park. Analysis of occurrence of all plant species measured in 1470 quadrats by multiple authors over the last 24 years shows that riparian vegetation along the Yampa River is strongly related to valley setting and geomorphic surfaces, defined here as active channel, active floodplain, inactive floodplain, and upland. Principal Coordinates Ordination arrayed quadrats and species along gradients of overall cover and moisture availability, from upland and inactive floodplain quadrats and associated xeric species like western wheat grass (Pascopyrum smithii), cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum), and saltgrass (Distichlis spicata) to active channel and active floodplain quadrats supporting more mesic species including sandbar willow (Salix exigua), wild licorice (Glycyrrhiza lepidota), and cordgrass (Spartina spp.). Indicator species analysis identified plants strongly correlated with geomorphic surfaces. These species indicate state changes in geomorphic surfaces, such as the conversion of active channel to floodplain during channel narrowing. The dominant woody riparian species along the Yampa River are invasive tamarisk (Tamarix ramosissima), and native Fremont cottonwood (Populus deltoides ssp. wislizenii), box elder (Acer negundo L. var. interius), and sandbar willow (Salix exigua). These species differ in tolerance of drought, salinity, inundation, flood disturbance and shade, and in seed size, timing of seed dispersal and ability to form root sprouts. These physiological and ecological differences interact with flow variation and geomorphic setting, resulting in differential patterns of occurrence. For example, in park settings cottonwood is far more abundant than box elder, while the reverse is true in canyons. Synthesis of existing knowledge from the Yampa and Green rivers and elsewhere suggests that the following flow-vegetation relations can be used to assess effects of future flow alterations in the Yampa River. High variability in flow within and between years removes vegetation through erosion, extended inundation and desiccation, creating the broad, open surfaces in and near the channel that are characteristic of lightly regulated rivers in western North America. This flow variability provides opportunities for establishment of disturbance-dependent riparian species. Flow regulation that results in lower peak flows and higher low flows allows proliferation of woody riparian vegetation, mostly tamarisk in canyon reaches, but both tamarisk and cottonwood in parks. Denser near-channel vegetation promotes sediment deposition leading to channel narrowing. Decreasing flow variability also increases area of species associated with extremely high and low inundation durations relative to species associated with moderate inundation duration. In addition, such flow regulation decreases occurrence of species tolerant of fluvial disturbance, while increasing occurrence of species tolerant of extended inundation. Over the long term, establishment of cottonwood and tamarisk requires disturbance by large floods, which provides openings for new individuals. At the annual time scale, establishment can occur in any year or location that provides a moist, open surface free from frequent future disturbance. In canyons, where channel movement is limited, low surfaces are too frequently disturbed for long-term survival of cottonwood, and establishment requirements are generally met only in years of moderate to high peak flows. In park settings cottonwood establishment may also occur in years of low peak flows where survival is promoted by movement of the channel away from the seedling. Peak flows early in the growing season promote establishment of cottonwood and sandbar willow seedlings relative to those of tamarisk. This is because cottonwood and willow seed release occurs early in the summer, while that of tamarisk occurs later. Late season seed release of tamarisk allows it to establish lower on the floodplain than cottonwood. Because of its shade tolerance and the energy stored in its large seeds, box elder can become established beneath existing vegetation, an ability not shared by cottonwood, tamarisk or willow. Although box elder does not require flood disturbance, it does take advantage of soil moisture from floods, which allow this species to become established high above the channel. Decreases in flow peaks, volumes or base flows decrease growth and survival of cottonwood relative to drought-tolerant tamarisk. Storing water from the spring peak in a reservoir for release after the April-July cottonwood growth window may also decrease growth and survival of cottonwood relative to tamarisk. Decreases in peak flows decrease floodplain inundation, which can reduce growth of floodplain species by preventing recharge of the floodplain aquifer. Two or more years in a row with similar flows promote establishment of woody vegetation. Subsequent sediment deposition around this vegetation, especially if the vegetation is tamarisk, results in channel narrowing and simplification. Rapid declines in the descending limb of the hydrograph kill riparian woody seedlings by desiccation. Fluctuations in the descending limb can kill seedlings by desiccation and inundation. Thus rapid declines and fluctuations would be counterproductive following early-season peaks prescribed to promote cottonwood, but would be consistent with the goal of preventing tamarisk establishment following a late-season peak. The tendency of regulated flows to keep returning to a small number of fixed discharge values (such as power plant capacity or a fixed minimum flow) can cause unnaturally sharp banding of geomorphic surfaces, topography and vegetation that is not necessarily erased by large flood peaks. Changes in sediment load relative to transport capacity may promote channel change especially in alluvial settings. For example, decreases in sediment input from the Little Snake River Basin since 1960 (or earlier) could be associated with channel narrowing and temporary increases in establishment of both cottonwood and tamarisk along the Yampa River. Increases in salinity of water or soil promote tamarisk over the native woody species. Even if water salinity does not increase, floodplain soil salinity can be increased by decreasing the flushing caused by overbank flooding.

Dinosaur National Monument, Yampa River↗

Summary of hydrogeologic controls on ground-water flow at the Nevada Test Site, Nye County, Nevada

The underground testing of nuclear devices has generated substantial volumes of radioactive and other chemical contaminants below ground at the Nevada Test Site (NTS). Many of the more radioactive contaminants are highly toxic and are known to persist in the environment for thousands of years. In response to concerns about potential health hazards, the U.S. Department of Energy, under its Environmental Restoration Program, has made NTS the subject of a long-term investigation. Efforts supported through the U.S. Department of Energy program will assess whether byproducts of underground testing pose a potential hazard to the health and safety of the public and, if necessary, will evaluate and implement steps to remediate any of the identified dangers. Test-generated contaminants have been introduced over large areas and at variable depths above and below the water table throughout NTS. Evaluating the risks associated with these byproducts of underground testing presupposes a knowledge of the source, transport, and potential receptors of these contaminants. Ground-water flow is the primary mechanism by which contaminants can be transported significant distances away from the initial point of injection. Flow paths between contaminant sources and potential receptors are separated by remote areas that span tens of miles. The diversity and structural complexity of the rocks along these flow paths complicates the hydrology of the region. Although the hydrology has been studied in some detail, much still remains uncertain about flow rates and directions through the fractured-rock aquifers that transmit water great distances across this arid region. Unique to the hydrology of NTS are the effects of underground testing, which severely alter local rock characteristics and affect hydrologic conditions throughout the region. Any assessment of the risk must rely in part on the current understanding of ground-water flow, and the assessment will be only as good as the understanding itself. This report summarizes what is known and inferred about ground-water flow throughout the NTS region. The report identifies and updates what is known about some of the major controls on ground-water flow, highlights some of the uncertainties in the current understanding, and prioritizes some of the technical needs as related to the Environmental Restoration Program. An apparent deficiency in the current understanding is a lack of knowledge about flow directions and rates away from major areas of testing. Efforts are necessary to delineate areas of downgradient flow and to identify factors that constrain and control flow within these areas. These efforts also should identify the areas most critical to gaining detailed understanding and to establishing long-term monitoring sites necessary for effective remediation.

Nevada↗

Science mission requirements for a globally ranging, riserless drilling vessel for U.S. Scientific Ocean Drilling

Through the collection and analysis of shallow and deep subseafloor sediments, rocks, fluids, and life, scientific ocean drilling has enriched our understanding of the complex Earth system. Among other achievements, scientific ocean drilling has documented the history of Earth’s climate, the waxing and waning of polar ice sheets, the past changes in ocean and atmospheric circulation, the existence and function of microbial life in the subseafloor, the compositional variations in Earth’s crust and underlying mantle, and the physical and chemical processes acting at subduction zones, including those associated with tsunamigenic earthquakes. Over the decades, more than 12,000 articles that depend on analyses of scientific ocean drilling samples and geophysical data have been published, many detailing breakthrough contributions to global knowledge about the Earth system. Approximately 45% of these publications were led by U.S.-affiliated authors (International Ocean Discovery Program Publication Services, 2021). Since the mid-1980s, the workhorse of this multidisciplinary, international research effort has been the riserless D/V JOIDES Resolution, operated by Texas A&M University with funding from the U.S. National Science Foundation (NSF). D/V JOIDES Resolution has conducted the vast majority of scientific ocean drilling expeditions and collected most of the scientific cores over that period, including 82% of the expeditions and 93% of the cores in the last decade alone, despite being one of three platforms that is operated within the International Ocean Discovery Program. However, D/V JOIDES Resolution is approaching the end of its useful life. With a strong commitment to continue scientific ocean drilling beyond the end of the current phase, the community developed a document outlining the research frontiers that should be pursued. Exploring Earth by Scientific Ocean Drilling: 2050 Science Framework (Koppers and Coggon, 2020) describes seven scientific strategic objectives that focus on understanding interconnections within the Earth system and five flagship initiatives that integrate these objectives into long-term research efforts that address issues facing society. Additional elements in the 2050 Science Framework, including STEM education, workforce development, technology development, and innovative applications of data analytics, will advance the goals of scientific ocean drilling. Addressing the 2050 Science Framework also requires building partnerships with allied U.S. and international science programs and strengthening existing ones. To implement a significant portion of the 2050 Science Framework, the U.S. scientific community seeks to lease or acquire a newly built, globally ranging, state-of-the art, riserless drilling vessel. The many and varied technical and human resources requirements for successful accomplishment of scientific and educational goals summarized in this document and described in detail in the 2050 Science Framework require broad community input and careful consideration. Following receipt of NSF’s formal Request for Assistance to the United States Science Support Program (USSSP), the U.S. scientific ocean drilling community conducted a one-year exercise to identify its national scientific needs and priorities in order to determine the Science Mission Requirements (SMRs) presented here. This community effort included: (1) a U.S. community-wide survey to identify the specific operational and technical capabilities critical to addressing science in the 2050 Science Framework; (2) a series of online workshops focusing on critical capabilities identified by the survey; and (3) a large in-person workshop to synthesize the results of the survey and the virtual workshops (Appendix 1). The approach was designed to reach as many participants as possible. Overall, 278 survey responses were received from U.S. community members, representing 104 unique institutions from 39 states and the District of Columbia, and 137 unique individuals participated in the workshops (Appendix 2). The results of this effort comprise two classes of SMRs: Foundational Science Mission Requirements and Primary Science Mission Requirements. Foundational SMRs define minimum criteria for a new riserless drilling vessel that can address significant portions of the 2050 Science Framework. Primary SMRs build upon the Foundational SMRs and will create more robust science opportunities and data collection capabilities, will increase progress in addressing the 2050 Science Framework objectives, and will provide more real-time ship-to-shore interaction to improve science productivity, engagement, and outreach. Modern safety and environmental standards, including meeting standards to access protected waters such as exclusive economic zones, extended continental shelves, or high latitudes, while being cognizant of the vessel’s environmental footprint. Safe and efficient operations in global locations and in water depths from 70 m to 6000+ m, with total drill string length of at least 7000 m. High-quality core and data collection from a range of key subseafloor environments. Advanced heave compensation, dynamic positioning, and drill pipe stability. Modern mud and cement/casing systems. Critical onboard measurements for safety, operational decision-making, documentation of ephemeral properties, mission-specific science, and long-term science goals that extend beyond a single expedition. Designated and appropriate space for sample and data preservation. Highly skilled onboard personnel, including technical staff for curation and core handling; support for safety, time-sensitive, and critical shipboard measurements; computer support; equipment and instrument repair; application support; and data assurance. Primary Science Mission Requirements include: Flexible shipboard space for laboratories and on deck to ensure safe, successful implementation of diverse science objectives and operations. Minimizing contamination of recovered samples. Over-the-side capabilities for science-supporting technology (e.g., remotely operated vehicles, water- column sampling, sediment-water interface sampling). Downhole logging and measurements. Expanded borehole observatory capabilities. Reliable and consistent ship-to-shore communications. NSF’s investment in a new globally ranging, riserless drilling vessel will have a powerful economic multiplier effect, including the infusion of additional science support funds in the United States for training and research, the development of new technologies and tools, and the associated scientific and technical workforce development. The skills and knowledge gained through scientific ocean drilling are translatable to careers in fields such as sustainable energy development (e.g., geothermal and offshore wind), carbon sequestration, data management and cyberinfrastructure, biotechnology, communications, science education, policy, hazard mitigation, and environmental management. The United States is a leader in a well-established and internationally collaborative scientific ocean drilling community. A modern, globally ranging, riserless drilling vessel will allow the United States to expand its leadership position, address broad scientific questions that current capabilities preclude, and cultivate equitable international, multidisciplinary collaborations that will ensure scientific ocean drilling’s future success.

Report↗

Evaluating evapotranspiration for six sites in Benton, Spokane, and Yakima counties, Washington, May 1990 to September 1992

This report evaluates evapotranspiration for six sites in Benton, Spokane, and Yakima Counties, Washington. Three sites were located on the Arid Lands Ecology Reserve in Benton County: one at a full-canopy grassland in Snively Basin (Snively Basin site), one at a sparse-canopy grassland adjacent to two weighing lysimeters (grass lysimeter site), and one at a sagebrush grassland adjacent to two weighing lysimeters (sage lysimeter site). Two sites were located on the Turnbull National Wildlife Refuge in Spokane County: one at a full-canopy grassland in a meadow (Turnbull meadow site), the other a full-canopy grassland near a marsh (Turnbull marsh site). The last site was located in a sagebrush grassland in the Black Rock Valley in Yakima County (Black Rock Valley site). The periods of study at the six sites varied, ranging from 5 months at the Black Rock Valley site to more than 2 years at the Snively Basin, grass lysimeter, and sage lysimeter sites. The periods of study were May 1990 to September 1992 for the Snively Basin, grass lysimeter, and sage lysimeter sites; May 1991 to September 1992 for the Turnbull meadow site; May 1991 to April 1992 for the Turnbull marsh site; and March to September 1992 for the Black Rock Valley site. Evapotranspiration and energy-budget fluxes were estimated for the Snively Basin site, the Turnbull meadow site, and the Black Rock Valley site using the Bowen-ratio and Penman-Monteith methods. Daily evapotranspiration for the Snively Basin site was also estimated using a deep-percolation model for the Columbia Basin. The Bowen-ratio method and weighing lysimeters were used at the grass and sage lysimeter sites. The Penman-Monteith method was used at the Turnbull marsh site. Daily evapotranspiration at the sites ranged from under 0.2 millimeter during very dry or cold periods to over 4\x11millimeters after heavy rainfall or during periods of peak transpiration. At all sites, peak evapotranspiration occurred in spring, coinciding with plant growth, and the lowest evapotranspiration occurred in late summer and winter, coinciding with plant dormancy and extremely hot or cold temperatures. Water budgets for the Snively Basin, grass lysimeter, and sage lysimeter sites were based on estimates of precipitation, evapotranspiration, and surface runoff. Surface runoff was estimated at zero for all sites. For the Snively Basin site, 1991 and 1992 water budgets using Penman-Monteith evapotranspiration estimates agreed within 1 percent of the annual budgets computed using deep-percolation model estimates; daily estimates of evapotranspiration by the two methods varied considerably, however. For the Snively Basin site, 100 percent of the precipitation became ET in 1991, and in 1992, about 91 percent of the precipitation became evapotranspiration. Water budgets based on weighing lysimeter data at the grass and sage lysimeter sites agreed within 1 percent of each other for 1991 and within 5 percent of each other for 1992. For 1991, 10 percent of the precipitation became ET at both lysimeter sites. For 1992, 94 to 98 percent of the precipitation became ET at the grass lysimeter site while 98 to 9 percent of the precipitation became ET at the sage lysimeter site. Though there were uncertainties in the methods used, recharge estimates for the Snively Basin and grass and sage lysimeter sites were of the same order of magnitude. The Penman-Monteith method (which incorporated Bowen-ratio measurements), deep- percolation model, and weighing lysimeters indicated that no recharge to subsurface systems (soil profile, unsaturated zone, and ground water) occurred in 1991 and that, in 1992, recharge to subsurface systems was probably less than 10 percent of the annual precipitation at the Snively Basin and grass and sage lysimeter sites.

Washington↗

Connectivity of Mojave Desert tortoise populations—Management implications for maintaining a viable recovery network

Executive Summary The historic distribution of Mojave desert tortoises ( Gopherus agassizii ) was relatively continuous across the range, and the importance of tortoise habitat outside of designated tortoise conservation areas (TCAs) to recovery has long been recognized for its contributions to supporting gene flow between TCAs and to minimizing impacts and edge effects within TCAs. However, connectivity of Mojave desert tortoise populations has become a concern because of recent and proposed development of large tracts of desert tortoise habitat that cross, fragment, and surround designated conservation areas. This paper summarizes the underlying concepts and importance of connectivity for Mojave desert tortoise populations by reviewing current information on connectivity and providing information to managers for maintaining or enhancing desert tortoise population connectivity as they consider future proposals for development and management actions. Maintaining an ecological network for the Mojave desert tortoise, with a system of core habitats (TCAs) connected by linkages, is necessary to support demographically viable populations and long-term gene flow within and between TCAs. There are four points for wildlife and land-management agencies to consider when making decisions that could affect connectivity of Mojave desert tortoise populations (for example, in updating actions in resource management plans or amendments that could help maintain or restore functional connectivity in light of the latest information): Management of all desert tortoise habitat for persistence and connectivity . Desert tortoise populations continue to decline within most TCAs, and it is unlikely that trends are better in populations outside protected areas. Fragmentation exacerbates negative population trends by breaking large continuous populations into smaller isolated populations. Connectivity within large populations can enhance resilience to localized disturbances due to rescue by neighboring individuals. In contrast, smaller fragmented populations are resistant to rescue by their isolation and thus could suffer irreversible declines to extirpation from a variety of threats and stochastic events. Enhanced threat reduction to reverse declines within TCAs and to maintain occupied habitat in the surrounding matrix would help reduce the variability in population growth rates and improve the resilience of protected populations even while implementing efforts to improve connectivity. Each TCA has unique strengths and weaknesses regarding its ability to support minimum sustainable populations based on areal extent and its ability to support population increases based on landscape connection with adjacent populations. Considering how proposed projects (inside or outside of TCAs) affect connectivity and the ability of TCAs to support at least 5,000 adult tortoises (the numerical goal for each TCA) could help managers to maintain the resilience of TCAs to population declines. The same project, in an alternative location, could have very different impacts on local and regional populations. For example, within the habitat matrix surrounding TCAs, narrowly delineated corridors may not allow for natural population dynamics if they do not accommodate overlapping home ranges along most of their widths so that tortoises reside, grow, find mates, and produce offspring that can replace older tortoises. In addition, most habitat outside TCAs may receive more surface disturbance than habitat within TCAs. Therefore, managing the entire remaining matrix of desert tortoise habitat for permeability may be better than delineating fixed corridors. These concepts apply, especially given uncertainty about long-term condition of habitat, within and outside of TCAs under a changing climate. Ultimately, questions such as “ What are the critical linkages that need to be protected ?” could be better framed as “ How can we manage the remaining habitat matrix in ways that sustain ecological processes and habitat suitability for special status species ?” Land-management decisions made in the context of the latter question may be more conducive to maintenance of a functional ecological network. Limitations on landscape-level disturbance across habitat managed for the desert tortoise Clearly delineating habitat linkages and differentiating them from non-delineated areas by the uses that are permitted or prohibited within them by specific management guidelines can help achieve functional connectivity. Such guidelines would be most effective if they considered and accounted for all surface disturbances (for example, temporary disturbances such as fiberoptic lines or off-highway vehicle routes, right-of-ways, utility-scale solar development, urbanization) to the extent possible. A weighted framework that varies with the permanence or severity of the disturbance, and can be additive to quantify cumulative effects, could be useful (Xiong, 2020). For example, minor roads can alter tortoise movements independently of other features (Peaden and others, 2017; Hromada and others, 2020), but if the isolated dirt road is accompanied by a powerline that encourages raven predation (Xiong, 2020), then the two features together may be additive. Ignoring minor or temporary disturbance on the landscape could result in a cumulatively large impact that is not explicitly acknowledged (Goble, 2009); therefore, understanding and quantifying all surface disturbance on a given landscape is prudent. In California, the Bureau of Land Management established 0.1–1.0 percent caps on new surface-disturbance for TCAs and mapped linkages that address the issues described in number 1 of this list. Nevada, Utah, and Arizona currently do not have surface-disturbance limits. Limits comparable to those in the Desert Renewable Energy Conservation Plan (DRECP) would be 0.5 percent within TCAs and 1 percent within the linkages modeled by Averill-Murray and others (2013). Limits in some areas of California within the Desert Renewable Energy Conservation Plan, such as Ivanpah Valley, are more restrictive, at 0.1 percent. Continuity across the state line in Nevada could be achieved with comparable limits in the adjacent portion of Ivanpah Valley, as well as the Greater Trout Canyon Translocation Area and the Stump Springs Regional Augmentation Site. These more restrictive limits would help protect remaining habitat in the major interstate connectivity pathway through Ivanpah Valley and focal areas of population augmentation that provide additional population connectivity along the western flank of the Spring Mountains. In a recent study that analyzed 13 years of desert tortoise monitoring data, nearly all desert tortoise observations were at sites in which 5 percent or less of the surrounding landscape within 1 kilometer was disturbed (Carter and others, 2020a). To help maintain tortoise habitability and permeability across all other non-conservation-designated tortoise habitat, all surface disturbance could be limited to less than 5-percent development per square kilometer because the 5-percent threshold for development is the point at which tortoise occupation drops precipitously (Carter and others, 2020a). However, although individual desert tortoises were observed at development levels up to 5 percent, we do not know the fitness or reproductive characteristics of these individuals. This level of development also may not allow for long-term persistence of healthy populations that are of adequate size needed for demographic or functional connectivity; therefore, a conservative interpretation suggests that, ideally, development could be lower. Lower development levels would be particularly useful in areas within the upper 5th percentile of connectivity values modeled by Gray and others (2019). Reducing ancillary threats in places where connectivity is restricted to narrow strips of habitat, for example, narrow mountain passes or vegetated strips between solar development, could enhance the functionality of these vulnerable linkages. In such areas, maintaining multiple, redundant linkages could further enhance overall connectivity. Minimization of mortality from roads and maximization of passage under roads . Roads pose a significant threat to the long-term persistence of local tortoise populations, and roads of high traffic volume lead to severe population declines, which ultimately fragments populations farther away from the roads. Three points (a.–c.) pertain to reducing direct mortality of tortoises on the many paved roads that cross desert tortoise habitat and to maintaining a minimal level of permeability across these roads: Tortoise-exclusion fencing tied into culverts, underpasses, overpasses, or other passages below roads in desert tortoise habitat, would limit vehicular mortality of tortoises and provide opportunities for movement across the roads. Installation of shade structures on the habitat side of fences installed in areas with narrow population-depletion zones would limit overheating of tortoises that may pace the fence. Passages below highways could be maintained or retrofitted to ensure safe tortoise access, for example, by filling eroded drop-offs or modifying erosion-control features such as rip-rap to make them safer and more passable for tortoises. Wildlife management agencies could work with transportation departments to develop construction standards that are consistent with hydrologic/erosion management goals, while also incorporating a design and materials consistent with tortoise survival and passage and make the standards widely available. The process would be most effective if the status of passages was regularly monitored and built into management plans. Healthy tortoise populations along fenced highways could be supported by ensuring that land inside tortoise-exclusion fences is not so degraded that it leads to degradation of tortoise habitat outside the exclusion areas. For example, severe invasive plant infestations inside a highway exclusion could cause an increase of invasive plants outside the exclusion area and degrade habitat; therefore, invasive plants inside road rights of way could be mown or treated with herbicide to limit their spread into adjacent tortoise habitat and minimize the risk of these plants carrying wildfires into adjacent habitat. Adaptation of management based on new information . Future research will continue to build upon and refine models related to desert tortoise population connectivity and develop new ones. New models could consider landscape levels of development and be constructed such that they share common foundations to support future synthesis efforts. If model development was undertaken in partnership with entities that are responsible for management of desert tortoise habitat, it would facilitate incorporation of current and future modeling results into their land management decisions. There are specific topics that may be clarified with further evaluation: The effects of climate change on desert tortoise habitat, distribution, and population connectivity; The effects of large-scale fires, especially within repeatedly burned habitat, on desert tortoise distribution and population connectivity; The ability of solar energy facilities or similar developments to support tortoise movement and presence by leaving washes intact; leaving native vegetation intact whenever possible, or if not possible, mowing the site, allowing vegetation to re-sprout, and managing weeds; and allowing tortoises to occupy the sites; and The design and frequency of underpasses necessary to maintain functional demographic and genetic connectivity across linear features, like highways.

Arizona, California, Nevada↗