A Study of earthquake losses in the Puget Sound, Washington, area

Abstract

The Puget Sound Basin has a history of frequent seismic activity, including two recent damaging events. The greatest extent of urban development and the most densely populated area generally correspond to the area where the greatest energy release has been experienced. For this study two earthquakes have been simulated, each having magnitude 7.5, a reasonable maximum value for this area. Analysis of the events indicate that under the worst condition as many as 2,200 people would die, and 8,700 additional persons would suffer injuries requiring hospitalization or immediate medical treatment. Such casualties would occur under the worst conditions of exposure, as during the rush hours, but could be approximately as great at any time during the working day. It is possible that as many as 23,500 people would be homeless or would require temporary shelter pending reestablishment or relocation. Conditions of exposure would be altered during the nighttime, causing a drastic reduction in casulaty potentials to a level of about 5-10 percent of the daytime losses. Thus, the time of greatest concern is during the normal working day, and the areas of concern are the highly urbanized sections of the Puget Sound Basin. This study is intended to inform those agencies serving the region of potential hazard to people, structures, and lifeline functions, in such a way that the administrators of emergency services can proceed with confidence in planning response to earthquake disaster. Figure 1 shows the extent of the study area and the location of the epicenters of the postulated earthquakes. A comparison of the two isoseismal maps as they apply to each county, in tables 1 through 6, emphasizes the marked change in intensity at a site as the simulated earthquake is moved from a close to a distant location. The Modified Mercalli Intensity scale is defined on page 284. The report is concerned not only with human casualties and displacement, but also with impairment or destruction of essential facilities critical to the continuing normal functioning of the area. This includes hospitals and medical personnel, police and fire department equipment and personnel, communications, and utilities. The total damage profile was developed with careful consideration of conditions of the seismicity, geological history, population density and distribution, and physical status of structural and lifeline installations throughout the region. There is a potential for broad fluctuation in the casualty figures resulting from the chance positioning of people at the time of the occurrence of the earthquake. An example is that of the Lafayette Elementary School in West Seattle, where, in the 1949 earthquake, a large brick gable over the entry collapsed directly onto an area normally used for assembly of pupils. Such assembly regularly occurred at 11:55 a.m. The earthquake occurred at 11:57 a.m., but fortunately during the spring vacation. Following a large earthquake, effective remedial steps to maintain or to return to operation the essential public services will depend upon the prompt and informed actions of public agencies. Response planning should include not only consideration of disaster problems within a particular jurisdiction but also sharing of assistance with neighboring jurisdictions. Moderate response requirements experienced in one area can free resources to aid communities in more heavily damaged portions of the affected area. The damage profile is quite different among the six counties within the study. The remainder of the summary is devoted to a brief general assessment of possible problems in each of the counties. A detailed development and presentation of each of the problems is covered in the text of the report.