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USGS1969

Hydrology of carbonate rock terranes — A review: With special reference to the United States

Limestone and other carbonate rocks are characterized by many unusual features and extreme conditions, either involving the hydrologic system within them or wrought by hydrologic conditions on them or through them. Perhaps there could be little agreement as to what is typical or average for the many features of carbonate rocks, as indicated by the following conditions: bare rock and thin soils are common, but so are thick soils; very highly permeable limestones are common, but so are poorly permeable ones; and rugged karst topographic features with underlying solution caverns are common, but so are flat, nearly featureless topographic conditions. Some conditions of carbonate terranes are suitable to man's needs and interests, such as the use of some permeable aquifers for water supply and the exploitation of caves for tourist attractions. On the other hand, many problems may exist, including: permeability too low for adequate water supply or so high that the aquifer retains too little water for use during periods of fair weather, soils too thin for growing of crops and for adequate filtration of wastes near the ground surface, instability of the ground for buildings and foundations in sinkhole areas, and unusually rugged topography. Some of the many variable conditions are readily observable, but others can be determined only by careful geologic and hydrologic studies. The need for knowing the specific geologic and hydrologic conditions at various places in limestone terranes, as well as the variations in hydrologic conditions with changing conditions and time, has resulted in many published reports on local areas and on special topical problems of limestone hydrology. Many of these reports have been used to advantage by the present writers in preparing this paper. The concept that secondary permeability is developed by circulation of water through openings with the accompanying enlargement of these openings by solution is now universally accepted in limestone terranes. Emphasis is placed on the hydrogeologic framework, or structural setting, in relation to the ease or difficulty of water to move from a source of recharge, through a part of the limestone, to a discharge area. Parts of the limestone favored by circulating ground water tend to develop solution openings, commonly in the upper part of the zone of saturation; as base level is lowered (sea level or perennial stream level), the related water table lowers in the limestone leaving air-filled caverns above the present zone of saturation in sinkhole areas. Reconstruction of the geologic and hydrologic history of a limestone area aids in determining the extent of development and the positions of fossil and present permeability. References are made to the hydrology of many limestone regions, especially those of the United States.

Journal of Hydrology↗

USGS2015

Assessing the impacts of climate and land use and land cover change on the freshwater availability in the Brahmaputra River basin

Study Region: Brahmaputra River basin in South Asia. Study Focus: The Soil and Water Assessment Tool was used to evaluate sensitivities and patterns in freshwater availability due to projected climate and land use changes in the Brahmaputra basin. The daily observed discharge at Bahadurabad station in Bangladesh was used to calibrate and validate the model and analyze uncertainties with a sequential uncertainty fitting algorithm. The sensitivities and impacts of projected climate and land use changes on basin hydrological components were simulated for the A1B and A2 scenarios and analyzed relative to a baseline scenario of 1988–2004. New hydrological insights for the region: Basin average annual ET was found to be sensitive to changes in CO 2 concentration and temperature, while total water yield, streamflow, and groundwater recharge were sensitive to changes in precipitation. The basin hydrological components were predicted to increase with seasonal variability in response to climate and land use change scenarios. Strong increasing trends were predicted for total water yield, streamflow, and groundwater recharge, indicating exacerbation of flooding potential during August–October, but strong decreasing trends were predicted, indicating exacerbation of drought potential during May–July of the 21st century. The model has potential to facilitate strategic decision making through scenario generation integrating climate change adaptation and hazard mitigation policies to ensure optimized allocation of water resources under a variable and changing climate.

Brahmaputra River basin↗

USGS2003

Effects of crustal stresses on fluid transport in fractured rock: Case studies from northeastern and southwestern USA

The link between stress and hydrologic properties was examined at two sites that are distinguished by different rock types and different stress states. This investigation is based upon the analysis and interpretation of geophysical logs obtained in water wells at the two locations. At the northeast site (Newark Basin), the hydrologic characteristics of sedimentary rocks are dependent upon the relationship to the current regional stress field of two primary types of orthogonal features that serve as preferential pathways for fluid flow. Subhorizontal bedding-plane partings are highly transmissive near the surface and delineate transversely isotropic fluid flow at shallow depths. With increasing depth, the subhorizontal planes become less dominant and steeply dipping fractures become more influential hydrologically. These high-angle features define anisotropic flow pathways that are preferentially oriented along strike. At the southwest site (west Texas), extrusive rocks are subjected to topographically modified tectonic and gravitational stresses that vary spatially within a valley setting. The attendant changes in stress invariants cause fracture connectivity within the rock mass to systematically increase with depth along the valley flanks, but to remain relatively low in the central valley. The degree of fracture connectivity predicted within this valley configuration is consistent with variations in transmissivity determined at several well locations. In each of these cases, the idealized understanding of the hydrologic system is enhanced by considering the effects of regional and local stresses that act upon the fractured-rock aquifer.

Hydrogeology Journal↗

USGS1981

Dissolution of salt on the east flank of the Permian Basin in the southwestern U.S.A.

Hydrogeologic studies prove that natural dissolution of bedded salt occurs at shallow depths in many parts of the Permian Basin of the southwestern U.S.A. This is especially well-documented on the east side of the basin in study areas on the Cimarron River and Elm Fork in western Oklahoma, and on the Red River in the southeastern part of the Texas Panhandle. Four requirements for salt dissolution are: (1) a deposit of salt; (2) a supply of water unsaturated with respect to NaCl; (3) an outlet for removal of brine; and (4) energy to cause water to flow through the system. The supply of fresh groundwater in the region is recharged through permeable rocks, alluvium, terrace deposits, karstic features and fractures. Groundwater dissolves salt at depths of 10–250 m, and the resulting brine moves laterally and upward under hydrostatic pressure through caverns, fractures in disrupted rock, and clastic or carbonate aquifers until it reaches the land surface, where it forms salt plains and salt springs. In many areas, salt dissolution produces a self-perpetuating cycle: dissolution causes cavern development, followed by collapse and subsidence of overlying rock; then the resulting disrupted rock has a greater vertical permeability that allows increased water percolation and additional salt dissolution.

Colorado, Kansas, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Texas↗

USGS2017

A case study examining the efficacy of drainage setbacks for limiting effects to wetlands in the Prairie Pothole Region, USA

The enhancement of agricultural lands through the use of artificial drainage systems is a common practice throughout the United States, and recently the use of this practice has expanded in the Prairie Pothole Region. Many wetlands are afforded protection from the direct effects of drainage through regulation or legal agreements, and drainage setback distances typically are used to provide a buffer between wetlands and drainage systems. A field study was initiated to assess the potential for subsurface drainage to affect wetland surface-water characteristics through a reduction in precipitation runoff, and to examine the efficacy of current U.S. Department of Agriculture drainage setback distances for limiting these effects. Surface-water levels, along with primary components of the catchment water balance, were monitored over 3 y at four seasonal wetland catchments situated in a high-relief terrain (7–11% slopes). During the second year of the study, subsurface drainage systems were installed in two of the catchments using drainage setbacks, and the drainage discharge volumes were monitored. A catchment water-balance model was used to assess the potential effect of subsurface drainage on wetland hydrology and to assess the efficacy of drainage setbacks for mitigating these effects. Results suggest that overland precipitation runoff can be an important component of the seasonal water balance of Prairie Pothole Region wetlands, accounting on average for 34% (19–49%) or 45% (39–49%) of the annual (includes snowmelt runoff) or seasonal (does not include snowmelt) input volumes, respectively. Seasonal (2014–2015) discharge volumes from the localized drainage systems averaged 81 m 3 (31–199 m 3 ), and were small when compared with average combined inputs of 3,745 m 3 (1,214–6,993 m 3 ) from snowmelt runoff, direct precipitation, and precipitation runoff. Model simulations of reduced precipitation runoff volumes as a result of subsurface drainage systems showed that ponded wetland surface areas were reduced by an average of 590 m 2 (141–1,787 m 2 ), or 24% (3–46%), when no setbacks were used (drainage systems located directly adjacent to wetland). Likewise, wetland surface areas were reduced by an average of 141 m 2 (23–464 m 2 ), or 7% (1–28%), when drainage setbacks (buffer) were used. In totality, the field data and model simulations suggest that the drainage setbacks should reduce, but not eliminate, impacts to the water balance of the four wetlands monitored in this study that were located in a high-relief terrain. However, further study is required to assess the validity of these conclusions outside of the limited parameters (e.g., terrain, weather, soils) of this study and to examine potential ecological effects of altered wetland hydrology.

North Dakota↗

USGS2008

Attribution of declining Western U.S. Snowpack to human effects

Observations show snowpack has declined across much of the western United States over the period 1950-99. This reduction has important social and economic implications, as water retained in the snowpack from winter storms forms an important part of the hydrological cycle and water supply in the region. A formal model-based detection and attribution (D-A) study of these reductions is performed. The detection variable is the ratio of 1 April snow water equivalent (SWE) to water-year-to-date precipitation (P), chosen to reduce the effect of P variability on the results. Estimates of natural internal climate variability are obtained from 1600 years of two control simulations performed with fully coupled ocean-atmosphere climate models. Estimates of the SWE/P response to anthropogenic greenhouse gases, ozone, and some aerosols are taken from multiple-member ensembles of perturbation experiments run with two models. The D-A shows the observations and anthropogenically forced models have greater SWE/P reductions than can be explained by natural internal climate variability alone. Model-estimated effects of changes in solar and volcanic forcing likewise do not explain the SWE/P reductions. The mean model estimate is that about half of the SWE/P reductions observed in the west from 1950 to 1999 are the result of climate changes forced by anthropogenic greenhouse gases, ozone, and aerosols. ?? 2008 American Meteorological Society.

Journal of Climate↗

USGS2022

Predictions and drivers of sub-reach-scale annual streamflow permanence for the upper Missouri River basin: 1989-2018

The presence of year-round surface water in streams (i.e., streamflow permanence) is an important factor for identifying aquatic habitat availability, determining the regulatory status of streams, managing land use change, allocating water resources, and designing scientific studies. However, accurate, high resolution, and dynamic prediction of streamflow permanence that accounts for year-to-year variability at a regional extent is a major gap in modeling capability. Herein, we expand and adapt the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) PRObability of Streamflow PERmanence (PROSPER) model from its original implementation in the Pacific Northwest (PROSPER PNW ) to the upper Missouri River basin (PROSPER UM ), a geographical region that includes mountain and prairie ecosystems of the northern United States. PROSPER UM is an empirical model used to estimate the probability that a stream channel has year-round flow in response to climatic conditions (monthly and annual) and static physiographic predictor variables of the upstream basin. The structure and approach of PROSPER UM are generally consistent with the PROSPER PNW model but include improved spatial resolution (10 m) and a longer modeling period. Average model accuracy was 81 %. Drainage area, upstream proportion as wetlands, and upstream proportion as developed land cover were the most important predictor variables. The PROSPER UM model identifies decreases in streamflow permanence during climatically drier years, although there is variability in the magnitude across basins highlighting geographically varying sensitivity to drought. Variability in the response of perennial streams to drought conditions among basins in the study area was also observed.

Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Wyoming↗

USGS1997

Statistical modeling of agricultural chemical occurrence in midwestern rivers

Agricultural chemicals in surface water may constitute a human health risk or have adverse effects on aquatic life. Recent research on unregulated rivers in the midwestern USA documents that elevated concentrations of herbicides occur for 1-4 months following application in late spring and early summer. In contrast, nitrate concentrations in unregulated rivers are elevated during fall, winter, and spring months. Natural and anthropogenic variables of fiver drainage basins, such as soil permeability, amount of agricultural chemicals applied, or percentage of land planted in corn, affect agricultural chemical concentration and mass transport in rivers. Presented is an analysis of selected data on agricultural chemicals collected for three regional studies conducted by the US Geological Survey. Statistical techniques such as multiple linear and logistic regression were used to identify natural and anthropogenic variables of drainage basins that have strong relations to agricultural chemical concentrations and mass transport measured in rivers. A geographic information system (GIS) was used to manage and analyze spatial data. Statistical models were developed that estimated the concentration, annual transport, and annual mean concentration of selected agricultural chemicals in midwestern rivers. Multiple linear regression models were not very successful (R2 from 0.162 to 0.517) in explaining the variance in observed agricultural chemical concentrations during post-planting runoff. Logistic regression models were somewhat more successful, correctly matching the observed concentration category in 61-80% of observations. Linear and multiple linear regression models were moderately successful (R2 from 0.522 to 0.995) in explaining the variance in observed annual transport and annual mean concentration of agricultural chemicals. Explanatory variables that were commonly significant in the regression models include estimates of agricultural chemical use, crop acreage, soil characteristics, and basin topography.

Journal of Hydrology↗

USGS2025

Ranking river basins for stream temperature research and monitoring in the contiguous United States

There is a need to prioritize research and data collection in river basins by integrating information from environmental, ecological, and socioeconomic datasets to maintain acceptable water quality for human uses and ecosystem health. Multiple anthropogenic and natural stressors are responsible for driving changes in stream temperatures that can alter ecosystems and degrade water quality. These stressors are variable spatially and temporally, which can be challenging for prioritizing monitoring and research. In this study, an evaluation of variables related to stream temperature was performed for 163 candidate basins of the contiguous United States to highlight potential focal areas. Thirty variables were combined in six components: anthropogenic forcing, natural forcing, climate change, ecological sensitivity, socioeconomic sensitivity, and data availability. The components were incorporated into three themes: vulnerability of streams to thermal change, vulnerability of ecosystems, and vulnerability of communities. By evaluating each theme separately, patterns of vulnerability and potential resiliency were identified as well as consistency in ranks within the themes. For example, results of the national scale ranking indicated the Southern California Coastal basin (within California-Nevada region) was the highest-ranking priority in vulnerability of streams to thermal change and vulnerability of ecosystems. The analysis also identified vulnerable basins with gaps in monitoring. For example, the Missouri-Oahe basin (within the Northern High Plains region) was the highest-ranking priority for vulnerable communities with limitations in data availability. The ranking approach provides insight into basins that are resilient and are ideal candidates for monitoring and research.

Journal of Hydrology↗

USGS2024

Simulation of groundwater-flow dynamics in the U.S. Northern High Plains driven by multi-model estimates of surficial aquifer recharge

There is growing interest in incorporating higher-resolution groundwater modeling within the framework of large-scale land surface models (LSMs), including processes such as three-dimensional flow, variable soil saturation, and surface water/groundwater interactions. Conversely, complex groundwater models (e.g., the U.S. Geological Survey Groundwater-Flow Model, MODFLOW) often use simpler representations of land surface dynamics (e.g., surface vegetation, evapotranspiration, recharge) and may benefit from higher process fidelity and temporal resolutions in these inputs. This study investigates the potential of improving groundwater representation in LSMs and land surface dynamics in MODFLOW through forcing MODFLOW with recharge from LSMs. Groundwater simulations build on an existing and well-calibrated MODFLOW model of the U.S. Northern High Plains aquifer, a hydrologically complex basin under the dual impacts of conversion of native vegetation to intense irrigated agricultural fields and climate change. Simulated groundwater recharge from four different land models are used to drive MODFLOW groundwater simulations. Results show relatively large discrepancies between recharge estimates among simulations. Forcing MODFLOW using recharge simulated by some of the LSMs in place of a simple water balance model marginally improves MODFLOW groundwater simulation. Further, our results support the efficacy of coupling LSMs to a sophisticated groundwater model such as MODFLOW. The coupling results in notable improvements in matching the historical groundwater levels through reduction of the skewness coefficient in percent bias histogram (from 1.50 and 1.41 in original LSMs to 0.44 and 0.27, respectively, when MODFLOW is forced by groundwater recharge from LSMs) and reduction of bias. This modeling effort seeks to identify the best compromise between comprehensive land surface processes from global LSMs and advanced representation of groundwater from regional models.

Journal of Hydrology↗

USGS2014

Natural uranium and strontium isotope tracers of water sources and surface water-groundwater interactions in arid wetlands: Pahranagat Valley, Nevada, USA

Near-surface physical and chemical process can strongly affect dissolved-ion concentrations and stable isotope compositions of water in wetland settings, especially under arid climate conditions. In contrast, heavy radiogenic isotopes of strontium ( 87 Sr/ 86 Sr) and uranium ( 234 U/ 238 U) remain largely unaffected and can be used to help identify unique signatures from different sources and quantify end-member mixing that would otherwise be difficult to determine. The utility of combined Sr and U isotopes are demonstrated in this study of wetland habitats on the Pahranagat National Wildlife Refuge, which depend on supply from large-volume springs north of the Refuge, and from small-volume springs and seeps within the Refuge. Water budgets from these sources have not been quantified previously. Evaporation, transpiration, seasonally variable surface flow, and water management practices complicate the use of conventional methods for determining source contributions and mixing relations. In contrast, 87 Sr/ 86 Sr and 234 U/ 238 U remain unfractionated under these conditions, and compositions at a given site remain constant. Differences in Sr- and U-isotopic signatures between individual sites can be related by simple two- or three-component mixing models. Results indicate that surface flow constituting the Refuge’s irrigation source consists of a 65:25:10 mixture of water from two distinct regionally sourced carbonate aquifer springs, and groundwater from locally sourced volcanic aquifers. Within the Refuge, contributions from the irrigation source and local groundwater are readily determined and depend on proximity to those sources as well as water management practices.

Nevada↗

USGS2016

Variability of runoff-based drought conditions in the conterminous United States

In this study, a monthly water-balance model is used to simulate monthly runoff for 2109 hydrologic units (HUs) in the conterminous United States (CONUS) for water-years 1901 through 2014. The monthly runoff time series for each HU were smoothed with a 3-month moving average, and then the 3-month moving-average runoff values were converted to percentiles. For each HU, a drought was considered to occur when the HU runoff percentile dropped to the 20th percentile or lower. A drought was considered to end when the HU runoff percentile exceeded the 20th percentile. After identifying drought events for each HU, the frequency and length of drought events were examined. Results indicated that (1) the longest mean drought lengths occur in the eastern CONUS and parts of the Rocky Mountain region and the northwestern CONUS, (2) the frequency of drought is highest in the southwestern and central CONUS, and lowest in the eastern CONUS, the Rocky Mountain region, and the northwestern CONUS, (3) droughts have occurred during all months of the year and there does not appear to be a seasonal pattern to drought occurrence, (4) the variability of precipitation appears to have been the principal climatic factor determining drought, and (5) for most of the CONUS, drought frequency appears to have decreased during the 1901 through 2014 period.

International Journal of Climatology↗

USGS2008

Detection and attribution of temperature changes in the mountainous Western United States

Large changes in the hydrology of the western United States have been observed since the mid-twentieth century. These include a reduction in the amount of precipitation arriving as snow, a decline in snowpack at low and midelevations, and a shift toward earlier arrival of both snowmelt and the centroid (center of mass) of streamflows. To project future water supply reliability, it is crucial to obtain a better understanding of the underlying cause or causes for these changes. A regional warming is often posited as the cause of these changes without formal testing of different competitive explanations for the warming. In this study, a rigorous detection and attribution analysis is performed to determine the causes of the late winter/early spring changes in hydrologically relevant temperature variables over mountain ranges of the western United States. Natural internal climate variability, as estimated from two long control climate model simulations, is insufficient to explain the rapid increase in daily minimum and maximum temperatures, the sharp decline in frost days, and the rise in degree-days above 0??C (a simple proxy for temperature driven snowmelt). These observed changes are also inconsistent with the model-predicted responses to variability in solar irradiance and volcanic activity. The observations are consistent with climite simulations that include the combined effects of anthropogenic greenhouse gases and aerosols. It is found that, for each temperature variable considered, an anthropogenic signal is identifiable in observational fields. The results are robust to uncertainties in model-estimated fingerprints and natural variability noise, to the choice of statistical down-scaling method, and to various processing options in the detection and attribution method. ?? 2008 American Meteorological Society.

Journal of Climate↗

USGS2010

The importance of the riparian zone and in-stream processes in nitrate attenuation in undisturbed and agricultural watersheds – a review of the scientific literature

We reviewed published studies from primarily glaciated regions in the United States, Canada, and Europe of the (1) transport of nitrate from terrestrial ecosystems to aquatic ecosystems, (2) attenuation of nitrate in the riparian zone of undisturbed and agricultural watersheds, (3) processes contributing to nitrate attenuation in riparian zones, (4) variation in the attenuation of nitrate in the riparian zone, and (5) importance of in-stream and hyporheic processes for nitrate attenuation in the stream channel. Our objectives were to synthesize the results of these studies and suggest methodologies to (1) monitor regional trends in nitrate concentration in undisturbed 1st order watersheds and (2) reduce nitrate loads in streams draining agricultural watersheds. Our review reveals that undisturbed headwater watersheds have been shown to be very retentive of nitrogen, but the importance of biogeochemical and hydrological riparian zone processes in retaining nitrogen in these watersheds has not been demonstrated as it has for agricultural watersheds. An understanding of the role of the riparian zone in nitrate attenuation in undisturbed watersheds is crucial because these watersheds are increasingly subject to stressors, such as changes in land use and climate, wildfire, and increases in atmospheric nitrogen deposition. In general, understanding processes controlling the concentration and flux of nitrate is critical to identifying and mapping the vulnerability of watersheds to water quality changes due to a variety of stressors. In undisturbed and agricultural watersheds we propose that understanding the importance of riparian zone processes in 2nd order and larger watersheds is critical. Research is needed that addresses the relative importance of how the following sources of nitrate along any given stream reach might change as watersheds increase in size and with flow: (1) inputs upstream from the reach, (2) tributary inflow, (3) water derived from the riparian zone, (4) groundwater from outside the riparian zone (intermediate or regional sources), and (5) in-stream (hyporheic) processes.

Journal of Hydrology↗

USGS2025

Population demographics of invasive Silver Carp in a Great Plains river network

Objective Knowledge of invasive Silver Carp Hypophthalmichthys molitrix population demographics and distributions may inform estimates of efforts necessary to achieve reductions in abundance and identify locations to conduct removal. Although extensively studied in other parts of their invasive range (e.g., Mississippi and Illinois rivers), less is known regarding Silver Carp population demographics in Great Plains rivers and streams. As such, this study characterized Silver Carp population demographics along an invasion gradient in a Great Plains river network containing multiple hydrologically unique river reaches and tributaries. Methods Boat and tote-barge electrofishing surveys were conducted within the lower Platte River basin in the spring, summer, and fall of 2022 and 2023. Lapilli otoliths were collected for assessment of age, growth, and annual mortality. Information on sex also was collected. A spatial assessment of differences in population demographics was performed between core and periphery regions of the population. Results There were 1,528 Silver Carp collected. A spatial difference in relative abundance was observed and was associated with changes in body condition and total length along the longitudinal gradient of the lower Platte River basin. Silver Carp sex ratios were male-skewed across the lower Platte River basin (1.6:1), particularly in reaches near the invasion front (10.1:1). Conclusions Silver Carp population demographics within the lower Platte River basin were aligned with an establishing population characterized by rapid individual growth and skewed sex ratios. Broadscale variation in population characteristics, including growth and size structure, suggested density-dependent processes. Silver Carp occurred throughout the study area, indicating that braided Great Plains streams are susceptible to invasion. This study provided insight into Silver Carp population demographics in the lower Platte River basin and may provide useful information for the development of Silver Carp management plans in similar Great Plains streams.

North American Journal of Fisheries Management↗

USGS2007

Late Quaternary paleoenvironments of an ephemeral wetland in North Dakota, USA: Relative interactions of ground-water hydrology and climate change

This study of fossils (pollen, plant macrofossils, stomata and fish) and sediments (lithostratigraphy and geochemistry) from the Wendel site in North Dakota, USA, emphasizes the importance of considering ground-water hydrology when deciphering paleoclimate signals from lakes in postglacial landscapes. The Wendel site was a paleolake from about 11,500 14C yr BP to 11,100 14C yr BP. Afterwards, the lake-level lowered until it became a prairie marsh by 9,300 14C yr BP and finally, at 8,500 14C yr BP, an ephemeral wetland as it is today. Meanwhile, the vegetation changed from a white spruce parkland (11,500 to 10,500 14C yr BP) to deciduous parkland, followed by grassland at 9,300 14C yr BP. The pattern and timing of these aquatic and terrestrial changes are similar to coeval kettle lake records from adjacent uplands, providing a regional aridity signal. However, two local sources of ground water were identified from the fossil and geochemical data, which mediated atmospheric inputs to the Wendel basin. First, the paleolake received water from the melting of stagnant ice buried under local till for about 900 years after glacier recession. Later, Holocene droughts probably caused the lower-elevation Wendel site to capture the ground water of up-gradient lakes. ?? 2007 Springer Science+Business Media, Inc.

Journal of Paleolimnology↗

USGS2023

The consequences of neglecting reservoir storage in national-scale hydrologic models: An appraisal of key streamflow statistics

A better understanding of modeled streamflow errors related to basin reservoir storage is needed for large regions, which normally have many ungaged basins with reservoirs. We quantified the difference between modeled and observed streamflows for one process-based and three statistical-transfer hydrologic models, none of which explicitly accounted for reservoir storage. Streamflow statistics representing low to high flows, seasonality, annual variability, and daily autocorrelation were examined at 1082 study basins across the conterminous USA. All models increasingly overpredict (or decreasingly underpredict) observed annual maximum flows with increasing storage. Correlations between absolute values of errors for low-flow statistics and storage are often larger in magnitude than those for signed errors—additional storage is associated with increases in model errors in both directions even when its overall effect in one direction is weak. The rate of increase in absolute values of model errors was nonlinear for most statistics. For low flows, model errors had a change point to larger errors at 48 days of reservoir storage (relative to long-term mean daily flow); mean and high flows had change points at 147 to 176 days. We present predicted-to-observed errors for nine streamflow statistics over a large range of reservoir storage to help modelers and users of modeled streamflow understand the amount of storage for which explicit reservoir modeling is needed.

Journal of the American Water Resources Associatio↗

USGS2026

Stream macroinvertebrate responses vary with region, land use and management practice type

Intensive land use alters hydrology and water quality, threatening freshwater benthic macroinvertebrates. Over 200,000 management practices (MPs) have been implemented across the Chesapeake Bay watershed since the 1980s, yet biological responses remain inconsistent. We synthesized 29 studies from 4 physiographic provinces covering 8 MP categories and evaluated macroinvertebrate responses along MP gradients using structural (richness), functional (biomass), tolerance, and biotic metrics. We hypothesized that MPs enhancing habitat complexity or restoring flow regimes would benefit taxa sensitive to sediment, hydrologic instability and organic pollution, with outcomes shaped by regional context, land use, and chosen metrics. Four themes emerged. (i) Agricultural Riparian Forest Buffers (RFBs) consistently improved sensitive metrics related to abundance, biomass and richness. (ii) Urban streams with Stream Habitat Improvement and Management (SHIM) showed improved richness and diversity, but biomass and tolerance metrics declined or remained neutral, indicating unresolved hydrologic and pollutant stress. (iii) Structural and functional responses diverged: effect sizes for total and feeding-group biomasses (functional metrics) were negative, whereas genus-level Ephemeroptera-Plecoptera-Trichoptera (EPT) richness (structural metric) was positive, indicating that structural shifts may not track underlying production changes. (iv) Physiographic comparisons showed counterintuitive patterns, as RFBs improved EPT richness in Piedmont streams but had negative effects in the Coastal Plain. Evaluating MP effectiveness requires distinguishing a no-MP pathway (stressors → instream conditions → assemblages → responses) from an MP-mediated pathway (practice regime → modified stressors → instream conditions → assemblages → responses), underscoring the need for region-specific, multi-metric monitoring and improved understanding of MP density thresholds and recovery lags.

eastern contiguous United States↗