Predictions and drivers of sub-reach-scale annual streamflow permanence for the upper Missouri River basin: 1989-2018

Roy Sando; Kristin L. Jaeger; William H. Farmer; Theodore B. Barnhart; Ryan R. McShane; Toby L. Welborn; Kendra E. Kaiser; Konrad Hafen; Kyle W. Blasch; Benjamin C. York; Alden Shallcross

doi:10.1016/j.hydroa.2022.100138

USGS · 70241088

Predictions and drivers of sub-reach-scale annual streamflow permanence for the upper Missouri River basin: 1989-2018

Roy Sando·Kristin L. Jaeger·William H. Farmer·Theodore B. Barnhart·Ryan R. McShane·Toby L. Welborn·Kendra E. Kaiser·Konrad Hafen·Kyle W. Blasch·Benjamin C. York·Alden Shallcross

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Abstract

The presence of year-round surface water in streams (i.e., streamflow permanence) is an important factor for identifying aquatic habitat availability, determining the regulatory status of streams, managing land use change, allocating water resources, and designing scientific studies. However, accurate, high resolution, and dynamic prediction of streamflow permanence that accounts for year-to-year variability at a regional extent is a major gap in modeling capability. Herein, we expand and adapt the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) PRObability of Streamflow PERmanence (PROSPER) model from its original implementation in the Pacific Northwest (PROSPER PNW ) to the upper Missouri River basin (PROSPER UM ), a geographical region that includes mountain and prairie ecosystems of the northern United States. PROSPER UM is an empirical model used to estimate the probability that a stream channel has year-round flow in response to climatic conditions (monthly and annual) and static physiographic predictor variables of the upstream basin. The structure and approach of PROSPER UM are generally consistent with the PROSPER PNW model but include improved spatial resolution (10 m) and a longer modeling period. Average model accuracy was 81 %. Drainage area, upstream proportion as wetlands, and upstream proportion as developed land cover were the most important predictor variables. The PROSPER UM model identifies decreases in streamflow permanence during climatically drier years, although there is variability in the magnitude across basins highlighting geographically varying sensitivity to drought. Variability in the response of perennial streams to drought conditions among basins in the study area was also observed.

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Journal of Hydrology X Article

Source-reported bounding extent: 41.952647712608155° to 48.98607018582902° latitude; -115.06578880812711° to -99.6320641494822° longitude. This indicates report coverage, not an exact sampling location. View area on OpenStreetMap.

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Roy Sando, Kristin L. Jaeger, William H. Farmer, Theodore B. Barnhart, Ryan R. McShane, Toby L. Welborn, Kendra E. Kaiser, Konrad Hafen, Kyle W. Blasch, Benjamin C. York, Alden Shallcross. 2022. Predictions and drivers of sub-reach-scale annual streamflow permanence for the upper Missouri River basin: 1989-2018. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.hydroa.2022.100138

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