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USGS2016

Observed decrease in atmospheric mercury explained by global decline in anthropogenic emissions

Observations of elemental mercury (Hg 0 ) at sites in North America and Europe show large decreases (&sim;1–2% y −1 ) from 1990 to present. Observations in background northern hemisphere air, including Mauna Loa Observatory (Hawaii) and CARIBIC (Civil Aircraft for the Regular Investigation of the atmosphere Based on an Instrument Container) aircraft flights, show weaker decreases (<1% y −1 ). These decreases are inconsistent with current global emission inventories indicating flat or increasing emissions over that period. However, the inventories have three major flaws: ( i ) they do not account for the decline in atmospheric release of Hg from commercial products; ( ii ) they are biased in their estimate of artisanal and small-scale gold mining emissions; and ( iii ) they do not properly account for the change in Hg 0 /Hg II speciation of emissions from coal-fired utilities after implementation of emission controls targeted at SO 2 and NO x . We construct an improved global emission inventory for the period 1990 to 2010 accounting for the above factors and find a 20% decrease in total Hg emissions and a 30% decrease in anthropogenic Hg 0 emissions, with much larger decreases in North America and Europe offsetting the effect of increasing emissions in Asia. Implementation of our inventory in a global 3D atmospheric Hg simulation [GEOS-Chem (Goddard Earth Observing System-Chemistry)] coupled to land and ocean reservoirs reproduces the observed large-scale trends in atmospheric Hg 0 concentrations and in Hg II wet deposition. The large trends observed in North America and Europe reflect the phase-out of Hg from commercial products as well as the cobenefit from SO 2 and NO x emission controls on coal-fired utilities.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences↗

USGS2017

The Partners in Flight handbook on species assessment Version 2017

Partners in Flight (PIF) is a cooperative venture of federal, state, provincial, and territorial agencies, industry, non-governmental organizations, researchers, and many others whose common goal is the conservation of North American birds (www.partnersinflight.org). While PIF has focused primarily on landbirds, it works in conjunction with other bird partners to promote coordinated conservation of all birds. PIF follows an iterative, adaptive planning approach that develops a sound scientific basis for decision-making and a logical process for setting, implementing, and evaluating conservation objectives (Pashley et al. 2000, Rich et al. 2004, Berlanga et al. 2010). The steps include: 1. Assessing conservation vulnerability of all bird species; 2. Identifying species most in need of conservation attention at continental and regional scales; 3. Setting of numerical population objectives for species of continental and regional importance; 4. Identifying conservation needs and recommended actions for species and habitats of importance; 5. Implementing strategies for meeting species and habitat objectives at continental and regional scales; 6. Evaluating success, making revisions, and setting new objectives for the future. The 2017 PIF Handbook on Species Assessment (2017 PIF Handbook) documents assessment rules and scores used in the Partners in Flight Landbird Conservation Plan: 2016 Revision for Canada and Continental United States (Rosenberg et al. 2016) and The State of North America’s Birds 2016 (NABCI 2016). It updates previous versions of the handbook (Panjabi et al. 2012, 2005, 2001) developed to accompany other PIF applications including Saving Our Shared Birds: Partners in Flight Tri-National Vision for Landbird Conservation (Berlanga et al. 2010) and the North American Landbird Conservation Plan (Rich et al. 2004). All current and past scores, data sources, and other related information are contained in databases hosted by the Bird Conservancy of the Rockies. Scores can be viewed online and downloaded as excel files, including archived versions (http://pif.birdconservancy.org/acad). The current accompanying Avian Conservation Assessment Database (ACAD) holds assessment scores and data for all 1585 native and 18 well-established non-native bird species found in mainland North America south to Panama plus adjacent islands and oceans. The taxonomy follows the American Ornithological Society’s 7th Edition Checklist of North and Middle American Birds, including updates though the 57th supplement, published in 2016 (http://checklist.aou.org/). The ACAD builds on archived PIF databases that hosted only data on the 882 landbirds native to Canada, USA and Mexico. This handbook is presented in two principal sections. Part I details the factors and scoring used by PIF to assess the vulnerability of species at continental and regional scales (i.e. step 1 of the planning approach above). Each assessment factor is based on biological criteria that evaluate distinct components of vulnerability throughout the life cycle of each species across its range. Part II describes the process of how the factors and the corresponding scores can be combined to highlight conservation needs (i.e. step 2 of the planning approach above). Both the scores and the process have evolved over time (Hunter et al. 1992, Carter et al. 2000, Panjabi et al. 2001, 2005, 2012) and continue to be updated in response to external review (Beissinger et al. 2000), broad partner expertise, and the emergence of new data and analytical tools.

Report↗

USGS2013

Application of a hydrodynamic and sediment transport model for guidance of response efforts related to the Deepwater Horizon oil spill in the Northern Gulf of Mexico along the coast of Alabama and Florida

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) scientists have provided a model-based assessment of transport and deposition of residual Deepwater Horizon oil along the shoreline within the northern Gulf of Mexico in the form of mixtures of sand and weathered oil, known as surface residual balls (SRBs). The results of this USGS research, in combination with results from other components of the overall study, will inform operational decisionmaking. The results will provide guidance for response activities and data collection needs during future oil spills. In May 2012 the U.S. Coast Guard, acting as the Deepwater Horizon Federal on-scene coordinator, chartered an operational science advisory team to provide a science-based review of data collected and to conduct additional directed studies and sampling. The goal was to characterize typical shoreline profiles and morphology in the northern Gulf of Mexico to identify likely sources of residual oil and to evaluate mechanisms whereby reoiling phenomena may be occurring (for example, burial and exhumation and alongshore transport). A steering committee cochaired by British Petroleum Corporation (BP) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is overseeing the project and includes State on-scene coordinators from four States (Alabama, Florida, Louisiana, and Mississippi), trustees of the U.S. Department of the Interior (DOI), and representatives from the U.S. Coast Guard. This report presents the results of hydrodynamic and sediment transport models and developed techniques for analyzing potential SRB movement and burial and exhumation along the coastline of Alabama and Florida. Results from these modeling efforts are being used to explain the complexity of reoiling in the nearshore environment and to broaden consideration of the different scenarios and difficulties that are being faced in identifying and removing residual oil. For instance, modeling results suggest that larger SRBs are not, under the most commonly observed low-energy wave conditions, likely to move very far alongshore. This finding suggests that SRBs from one source location may not (outside of storm conditions) be redistributed to other up or down coast locations. This information can guide operational response decisions. In addition, because SRBs are less mobile compared with sand, they are likely to become buried and unburied under normal sand transport processes thereby lengthening the time SRBs may take to move onshore. The rate of onshore movement was not specifically addressed by this study, yet the results resolve the cross-shore domain and cross-shore variations in alongshore transport that are relevant to achieving the primary objectives. Furthermore, during infrequent events (for example, winter storms and severe meteorological events such as Hurricane Isaac of August 2012), energy is shown to be sufficient to move a greater range of SRB sizes and potentially expose and break up submerged oil mats. When SRBs do move alongshore, the models indicate that there are regions that are more conducive to accumulation of SRB material than others. Accumulation can occur where there are reversals and decelerations in alongshore currents and where forces created by shear stress drops below critical thresholds to maintain or initiate SRB movement. In addition, flow and SRB mobility patterns around inlets indicate patterns in hydrodynamic forces that influence redistribution of SRBs and the surface oil that mixed with sediment to form oil mats in the first place.

Alabama;Florida↗

USGS1993

Interactions of frazil and anchor ice with sedimentary particles in a flume

Frazil and anchor ice forming in turbulent, supercooled water have been studied extensively because of problems posed to man-made hydraulic structures. In spite of many incidental observations of interactions of these ice forms with sediment, their geologic effects remain unknown. The present flume study was designed to learn about the effects of salinity, current speed, and sediment type on sediment dynamics in supercooled water. In fresh-water, frazil ice formed flocs as large as 8 cm in diameter that tended to roll along a sandy bottom and collect material from the bed. The heavy flocs often came to rest in the shelter of ripples, forming anchor ice that subsequently was buried by migrating ripples. Burial compressed porous anchor ice into ice-bonded, sediment-rich masses. This process disrupts normal ripple cross-bedding and may produce unique sedimentary structures. Salt-water flocs were smaller, incorporated less bed load, and formed less anchor ice than their fresh-water counterparts. In four experiments, frazil carried a high sediment load only for a short period in supercooled salt water, but released it with slight warming. This suggests that salt-water frazil is either sticky or traps particles only while surrounded by supercooled water (0.05 to 0.1 °C supercooling), a short-lived phase in simple, small tanks. Salt water anchor ice formed readily on blocks of ice-bonded sediment, which may be common in nature. The theoretical maximum sediment load in neutrally-buoyant ice/sediment mixture is 122 g/l, never reported in nature so far. The maximum sediment load measured in this laboratory study was 88 g/l. Such high theoretical and measured sediment concentrations suggest that frazil and anchor ice are important sediment transport agents in rivers and oceans.

Cold Regions Science and Technology↗

USGS2010

Future dryness in the Southwest US and the hydrology of the early 21st century drought

Recently the Southwest has experienced a spate of dryness, which presents a challenge to the sustainability of current water use by human and natural systems in the region. In the Colorado River Basin, the early 21st century drought has been the most extreme in over a century of Colorado River flows, and might occur in any given century with probability of only 60%. However, hydrological model runs from downscaled Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment climate change simulations suggest that the region is likely to become drier and experience more severe droughts than this. In the latter half of the 21st century the models produced considerably greater drought activity, particularly in the Colorado River Basin, as judged from soil moisture anomalies and other hydrological measures. As in the historical record, most of the simulated extreme droughts build up and persist over many years. Durations of depleted soil moisture over the historical record ranged from 4 to 10 years, but in the 21st century simulations, some of the dry events persisted for 12 years or more. Summers during the observed early 21st century drought were remarkably warm, a feature also evident in many simulated droughts of the 21st century. These severe future droughts are aggravated by enhanced, globally warmed temperatures that reduce spring snowpack and late spring and summer soil moisture. As the climate continues to warm and soil moisture deficits accumulate beyond historical levels, the model simulations suggest that sustaining water supplies in parts of the Southwest will be a challenge.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of↗

USGS2000

Recharge from a subsidence crater at the Nevada test site

Current recharge through the alluvial fans of the Nevada Test Site (NTS) is considered to be negligible, but the impact of more than 400 nuclear subsidence craters on recharge is uncertain. Many of the craters contain a playa region, but the impact of these playas has not been addressed. It was hypothesized that a crater playa would focus infiltration through the surrounding coarser-grained material, thereby increasing recharge. Crater U5a was selected because it represented a worst case for runoff into craters. A borehole was instrumented for neutron logging beneath the playa center and immediately outside the crater. Physical and hydraulic properties were measured along a transect in the crater and outside the crater. Particle-size analysis of the 14.6 m of sediment in the crater and morphological features of the crater suggest that a large ponding event of ≈63000 m 3 had occurred since crater formation. Water flow simulations with HYDRUS-2D, which were corroborated by the measured water contents, suggest that the wetting front advanced initially by as much as 30 m yr −1 with a recharge rate 32 yr after the event of 2.5 m yr −1 Simulations based on the measured properties of the sediments suggest that infiltration will occur preferentially around the playa perimeter. However, these sediments were shown to effectively restrict future recharge by storing water until removal by evapotranspiration (ET). This work demonstrated that subsidence craters may be self-healing.

Soil Science Society of America Journal↗

USGS2020

Large-scale erosion driven by intertidal eelgrass loss in an estuarine environment

Seagrasses influence local hydrodynamics by inducing drag on the flow and dampening near-bed velocities and wave energy. When seagrasses are lost, near-bed currents and wave energy can increase, which enhances bottom shear stresses, destabilizes sediment, and promotes suspension and erosion. Though seagrasses are being lost rapidly globally, the magnitude of change in sediment stabilization following ecosystem-wide eelgrass loss has rarely been measured. In this study, we explored the geomorphological changes associated with an unprecedented estuary-wide collapse of a seagrass (eelgrass, Zostera marina ) in Morro Bay, CA, USA. Morro Bay has historically suffered from accelerated sedimentation and accretion. However, following massive eelgrass loss since 2010, over 90% of locations that previously had eelgrass experienced erosion. Elevation losses (erosion) reached 0.50 m in some places (mean loss of 0.10 m) with as much as a 50% decrease (median decrease of 13.6%) in elevation (i.e., increase in depth) compared to pre-decline levels. In comparison, the mouth of the estuary, where eelgrass was largely retained, had only 27.7% of the locations with prior eelgrass experiencing erosion and underwent a mean elevation increase (accretion) of 0.32 m. Thus, the loss of eelgrass appears to have altered dynamics at the seabed and transitioned large regions of the estuary from an environment that promotes deposition and accretion to one that promotes suspension and erosion. Large-scale erosion following seagrass loss may be predictive of future shoreline and coastal habitat changes and is likely to be exacerbated by increased storm surge and sea level rise expected with climate change.

California↗

USGS2012

Rapid movement of frozen debris-lobes: implications for permafrost degradation and slope instability in the south-central Brooks Range, Alaska

We present the results of a reconnaissance investigation of unusual debris mass-movement features on permafrost slopes that pose a potential infrastructure hazard in the south-central Brooks Range, Alaska. For the purpose of this paper, we describe these features as frozen debris-lobes. We focus on the characterisation of frozen debris-lobes as indicators of various movement processes using ground-based surveys, remote sensing, field and laboratory measurements, and time-lapse observations of frozen debris-lobe systems along the Dalton Highway. Currently, some frozen debris-lobes exceed 100 m in width, 20 m in height and 1000 m in length. Our results indicate that frozen debris-lobes have responded to climate change by becoming increasingly active during the last decades, resulting in rapid downslope movement. Movement indicators observed in the field include toppling trees, slumps and scarps, detachment slides, striation marks on frozen sediment slabs, recently buried trees and other vegetation, mudflows, and large cracks in the lobe surface. The type and diversity of observed indicators suggest that the lobes likely consist of a frozen debris core, are subject to creep, and seasonally unfrozen surface sediment is transported in warm seasons by creep, slumping, viscous flow, blockfall and leaching of fines, and in cold seasons by creep and sliding of frozen sediment slabs. Ground-based measurements on one frozen debris-lobe over three years (2008–2010) revealed average movement rates of approximately 1 cm day −1 , which is substantially larger than rates measured in historic aerial photography from the 1950s to 1980s. We discuss how climate change may further influence frozen debris-lobe dynamics, potentially accelerating their movement. We highlight the potential direct hazard that one of the studied frozen debris-lobes may pose in the coming years and decades to the nearby Trans Alaska Pipeline System and the Dalton Highway, the main artery for transportation between Interior Alaska and the North Slope.

Alaska↗

USGS2013

Current research issues related to post-wildfire runoff and erosion processes

Research into post-wildfire effects began in the United States more than 70 years ago and only later extended to other parts of the world. Post-wildfire responses are typically transient, episodic, variable in space and time, dependent on thresholds, and involve multiple processes measured by different methods. These characteristics tend to hinder research progress, but the large empirical knowledge base amassed in different regions of the world suggests that it should now be possible to synthesize the data and make a substantial improvement in the understanding of post-wildfire runoff and erosion response. Thus, it is important to identify and prioritize the research issues related to post-wildfire runoff and erosion. Priority research issues are the need to: (1) organize and synthesize similarities and differences in post-wildfire responses between different fire-prone regions of the world in order to determine common patterns and generalities that can explain cause and effect relations; (2) identify and quantify functional relations between metrics of fire effects and soil hydraulic properties that will better represent the dynamic and transient conditions after a wildfire; (3) determine the interaction between burned landscapes and temporally and spatially variable meso-scale precipitation, which is often the primary driver of post-wildfire runoff and erosion responses; (4) determine functional relations between precipitation, basin morphology, runoff connectivity, contributing area, surface roughness, depression storage, and soil characteristics required to predict the timing, magnitudes, and duration of floods and debris flows from ungaged burned basins; and (5) develop standard measurement methods that will ensure the collection of uniform and comparable runoff and erosion data. Resolution of these issues will help to improve conceptual and computer models of post-wildfire runoff and erosion processes.

Earth-Science Reviews↗

USGS2007

Ultrahigh resolution topographic mapping of Mars with HiRISE stereo images: Methods and first results

The Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) arrived at Mars on 10 March 2006 and began its primary science phase in November. The High Resolution Imaging Science Experiment (HiRISE) on MRO is the largest, most complex camera ever flown to another planet. Plans call for this scanner to image roughly 1% of Mars by area at a pixel scale of 0.3 m during the next Mars year. Among the thousands of images will be hundreds of stereopairs that will provide an unprecedented three-dimensional view of the Martian surface at meter scale. These stereopairs will provide a tremendous amount of information for focused scientific studies, landing site selection and validation, and the operation of landers and rovers. In this paper, we describe our approach to generating geodetically controlled digital topographic models (DTMs) from such stereopairs, our early results, and plans for future DTM production. Our approach to the photogrammetric processing of HiRISE images follows that which we have previously described for the MOC and the Mars Express High Resolution Stereo Camera (HRSC). We use the USGS in-house digital cartographic software ISIS to do initial processing, including ingestion, decompression, and radiometric calibration of the images. "Three-dimensional" photogrammetric processing steps, including control and DTM creation and editing, are performed on a photogrammetric workstation running the commercial software SOCET SET (® BAE Systems). Noteworthy departures from past practice are the use of ISIS 3, the object-oriented successor to the older ISIS 2 system, and pre-processing in ISIS to correct geometric complications of the HiRISE images that cannot be modelled in the SOCET sensor model: multiple CCD detectors in the focal plane, optical distortion around an axis far from the detectors, and (ultimately) the small "jitter" motions of spacecraft pointing that distort the images and hence the DTMs. The first HiRISE stereopair analyzed covered the location of the Opportunity rover near the 750-m crater informally named Victoria in Meridiani Planum. This scene was extremely unfavorable for automated stereomatching, with extensive areas that are almost featureless, extremely steep, or both, but these problems were offset by the high quality of the HiRISE imagery, permitting us to obtain a 1 m/post DTM that required only limited interactive editing. Subsequent mapping of the Spirit rover site and a variety of scientifically interesting sites has proven that the greater surface texture found at most places on Mars leads to even better DTMs with even less editing required. We are currently working to refine and streamline our procedures in order to maximize the number of sites that can be mapped and studied in three dimensions with HiRISE.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2021

Efficacy of fenbendazole and ivermectin against Trichuris spp. in African green monkeys (Chlorocebus sabaeus) in Barbados West Indies

Trichuris spp. are common helminths in NHP, and benzimidazoles and avermectins have both been used to treat these intestinal parasites. The current study compared the efficacy of fenbendazole and ivermectin against natural infection of Trichuris spp. in African green monkeys ( Chlorocebus sabaeus ). Anthelmintic-naive animals ( n = 65) were randomly assigned to 4 groups: an untreated control group, and 3 groups treated with either fenbendazole, ivermectin, or both compounds. Fecal samples were collected before treatment and on days 7, 14, 28, and 60 after treatment, and fecal egg counts (FEC) were determined by using fecal flotation. The mean percentages of FEC reduction at day 60 were 100%, 86%, and 100% for treatment with fenbendazole, ivermectin, and both compounds, respectively. Analyzing the time series of FEC by using a Bayesian generalized linear model showed no significant difference in the proportional reduction in FEC among the 3 treatment groups, although all FEC from treated groups were significantly lower than the FEC of the control group. In contrast, the probability of shedding was highest in the ivermectin group and the lowest in the animals treated with both compounds. The probability of shedding differed significantly between the fenbendazole and ivermectin groups and between the ivermectin and combined-treatment groups. In conclusion, both fenbendazole and ivermectin are effective anthelmintics in treating Trichuris spp. infection in African green monkeys. All treatment groups showed significant reductions in FEC when compared with baseline counts and control animals; however, fenbendazole may be more effective than ivermectin when used solely or in combination with other anthelmintic treatments.

Journal of the American Association for Laboratory↗

USGS2024

Improved efficient physics-based computational modeling of regional wave-driven coastal flooding for reef-lined coastlines

Coastal flooding affects low-lying communities worldwide and is expected to increase with climate change, especially along reef-lined coasts, where wave-driven flooding is particularly prevalent. However, current regional modeling approaches are either insufficient or too computationally expensive to accurately assess risks in these complex environments. This study introduces and validates an improved computationally efficient and physics-based approach to compute dynamic wave-driven regional flooding on reef-lined coasts. We coupled a simplified-physics flood model (SFINCS) with a one-dimensional wave transformation model (XBeach-1D). To assess the performance of the proposed approach, we compared its results with results from a fully resolving two-dimensional wave transformation model (XBeach-2D). We applied this approach for a range of storms and sea-level rise scenarios for two contrasting reef-lined coastal geomorphologies: one low relief area and one high relief area. Our findings reveal that SFINCS coupled with XBeach-1D generates flood extents comparable to those produced by XBeach-2D, with a hit rate of 92%. However, this method tends to underpredict the flood extent of weaker, high-frequency storms and overpredict stronger, low-frequency storms. Across scenarios, our approach overpredicted the mean flood water depth, with a positive bias of 7 cm and root mean square difference of 15 cm. Offering approximately 100 times greater computational efficiency than its two-dimensional XBeach counterpart, this flood modeling technique is recommended for wave-driven flood modeling in scenarios with high computational demands, such as modeling numerous scenarios or undertaking detailed regional-scale modeling.

Journal of Marine Science & Engineering↗

USGS2020

The assessment and remediation of mercury contaminated sites: A review of current approaches

Remediation of mercury (Hg) contaminated sites has long relied on traditional approaches, such as removal and containment/capping. Here we review contemporary practices in the assessment and remediation of industrial-scale Hg contaminated sites and discuss recent advances. Significant improvements have been made in site assessment, including the use of XRF to rapidly identify the spatial extent of contamination, Hg stable isotope fractionation to identify sources and transformation processes, and solid-phase characterization (XAFS) to evaluate Hg forms. The understanding of Hg bioavailability for methylation has been improved by methods such as sequential chemical extractions and porewater measurements, including the use of diffuse gradient in thin-film (DGT) samplers. These approaches have shown varying success in identifying bioavailable Hg fractions and further study and field applications are needed. The downstream accumulation of methylmercury (MeHg) in biota is a concern at many contaminated sites. Identifying the variables limiting/controlling MeHg production—such as bioavailable inorganic Hg, organic carbon, and/or terminal electron acceptors (e.g. sulfate, iron) is critical. Mercury can be released from contaminated sites to the air and water, both of which are influenced by meteorological and hydrological conditions. Mercury mobilized from contaminated sites is predominantly bound to particles, highly correlated with total sediment solids (TSS), and elevated during stormflow. Remediation techniques to address Hg contamination can include the removal or containment of Hg contaminated materials, the application of amendments to reduce mobility and bioavailability, landscape/waterbody manipulations to reduce MeHg production, and food web manipulations through stocking or extirpation to reduce MeHg accumulated in desired species. These approaches often rely on knowledge of the Hg forms/speciation at the site, and utilize physical, chemical, thermal and biological methods to achieve remediation goals. Overall, the complexity of Hg cycling allows many different opportunities to reduce/mitigate impacts, which creates flexibility in determining suitable and logistically feasible remedies.

Science of the Total Environment↗

USGS2021

Changes in rocky intertidal community structure during a marine heatwave in the northern Gulf of Alaska

Marine heatwaves are global phenomena that can have major impacts on the structure and function of coastal ecosystems. By mid-2014, the Pacific Marine Heatwave (PMH) was evident in intertidal waters of the northern Gulf of Alaska and persisted for multiple years. While offshore marine ecosystems are known to respond to these warmer waters, the response of rocky intertidal ecosystems to this warming is unclear. Intertidal communities link terrestrial and marine ecosystems and their resources are important to marine and terrestrial predators and to human communities for food and recreation, while simultaneously supporting a growing coastal tourism industry. Given that current climate change projections suggest increased frequency and duration of marine heatwaves, monitoring and understanding the impacts of heatwaves on intertidal habitats is important. As part of the Gulf Watch Alaska Long-Term Monitoring program, we examined rocky intertidal community structure at 21 sites across four regions spanning 1,200 km of coastline: Western Prince William Sound, Kenai Fjords National Park, Kachemak Bay, and Katmai National Park and Preserve. Sites were monitored annually from 2012 to 2019 at mid and low tidal strata. Before-PMH (2012–2014), community structure differed among regions. We found macroalgal foundation species declined during this period mirroring patterns observed elsewhere for subtidal habitat formers during heatwave events. The region-wide shift from an autotroph-macroalgal dominated rocky intertidal to a heterotroph-filter-feeder dominated state concurrent with the changing environmental conditions associated with a marine heatwave event suggests the PMH had Gulf-wide impacts to the structure of rocky intertidal communities. During/after-PMH (2015–2019), similarities in community structure increased across regions, leading to a greater homogenization of these communities, due to declines in macroalgal cover, driven mostly by a decline in the rockweed, Fucus distichus , and other fleshy red algae in 2015, followed by an increase in barnacle cover in 2016, and an increase in mussel cover in 2017. Strong, large-scale oceanographic events, like the PMH, may override local drivers to similarly influence patterns of intertidal community structure.

Alaska↗

USGS2004

Evaluation of current techniques for isolation of chars as natural adsorbents

Chars in soils or sediments may potentially influence the soil/sediment sorption behavior. Current techniques for the isolation of black carbon including chars rely often on acid demineralization, base extraction, and chemical oxidation to remove salts and minerals, humic acid, and refractory kerogen, respectively. Little is known about the potential effects of these chemical processes on the char surface and adsorptive properties. This study examined the effects of acid demineralization, base extraction, and acidic Cr2O72- oxidation on the surface areas, surface acidity, and benzene adsorption characteristics of laboratory-produced pinewood and wheat-residue chars, pure or mixed with soils, and a commercial activated carbon. Demineralization resulted in a small reduction in the char surface area, whereas base extraction showed no obvious effect. Neither demineralization nor base extraction caused an appreciable variation in benzene adsorption and presumably the char surface properties. By contrast, the Cr2O 72- oxidation caused a >31% reduction in char surface area. The Boehm titration, supplemented by FTIR spectra, indicated that the surface acidity of oxidized chars increased by a factor between 2.3 and 12 compared to nonoxidized chars. Benzene adsorption with the oxidized chars was lower than that with the non-oxidized chars by a factor of >8.9; both the decrease in char surface area and the increase in char surface acidity contributed to the reduction in char adsorptive power. Although the Cr 2O72- oxidation effectively removes resistant kerogen, it is not well suited for the isolation of chars as contaminant adsorbents because of its destructive nature. Alternative nondestructive techniques that preserve the char surface properties and effectively remove kerogen must be sought.

Environmental Science & Technology↗

USGS2008

Chapter 31 Sensitivity and spin-up times of cohesive sediment transport models used to simulate bathymetric change

Bathymetric change in tidal environments is modulated by watershed sediment yield, hydrodynamic processes, benthic composition, and anthropogenic activities. These multiple forcings combine to complicate simple prediction of bathymetric change; therefore, numerical models are necessary to simulate sediment transport. Errors arise from these simulations, due to inaccurate initial conditions and model parameters. We investigated the response of bathymetric change to initial conditions and model parameters with a simplified zero-dimensional cohesive sediment transport model, a two-dimensional hydrodynamic/sediment transport model, and a tidally averaged box model. The zero-dimensional model consists of a well-mixed control volume subjected to a semidiurnal tide, with a cohesive sediment bed. Typical cohesive sediment parameters were utilized for both the bed and suspended sediment. The model was run until equilibrium in terms of bathymetric change was reached, where equilibrium is defined as less than the rate of sea level rise in San Francisco Bay (2.17 mm/year). Using this state as the initial condition, model parameters were perturbed 10% to favor deposition, and the model was resumed. Perturbed parameters included, but were not limited to, maximum tidal current, erosion rate constant, and critical shear stress for erosion. Bathymetric change was most sensitive to maximum tidal current, with a 10% perturbation resulting in an additional 1.4 m of deposition over 10 years. Re-establishing equilibrium in this model required 14 years. The next most sensitive parameter was the critical shear stress for erosion; when increased 10%, an additional 0.56 m of sediment was deposited and 13 years were required to re-establish equilibrium. The two-dimensional hydrodynamic/sediment transport model was calibrated to suspended-sediment concentration, and despite robust solution of hydrodynamic conditions it was unable to accurately hindcast bathymetric change. The tidally averaged box model was calibrated to bathymetric change data and shows rapidly evolving bathymetry in the first 10-20 years, though sediment supply and hydrodynamic forcing did not vary greatly. This initial burst of bathymetric change is believed to be model adjustment to initial conditions, and suggests a spin-up time of greater than 10 years. These three diverse modeling approaches reinforce the sensitivity of cohesive sediment transport models to initial conditions and model parameters, and highlight the importance of appropriate calibration data. Adequate spin-up time of the order of years is required to initialize models, otherwise the solution will contain bathymetric change that is not due to environmental forcings, but rather improper specification of initial conditions and model parameters. Temporally intensive bathymetric change data can assist in determining initial conditions and parameters, provided they are available. Computational effort may be reduced by selectively updating hydrodynamics and bathymetry, thereby allowing time for spin-up periods. reserved.

Proceedings in Marine Science↗

USGS2017

A hybrid machine learning model to predict and visualize nitrate concentration throughout the Central Valley aquifer, California, USA

Intense demand for water in the Central Valley of California and related increases in groundwater nitrate concentration threaten the sustainability of the groundwater resource. To assess contamination risk in the region, we developed a hybrid, non-linear, machine learning model within a statistical learning framework to predict nitrate contamination of groundwater to depths of approximately 500 m below ground surface. A database of 145 predictor variables representing well characteristics, historical and current field and landscape-scale nitrogen mass balances, historical and current land use, oxidation/reduction conditions, groundwater flow, climate, soil characteristics, depth to groundwater, and groundwater age were assigned to over 6000 private supply and public supply wells measured previously for nitrate and located throughout the study area. The boosted regression tree (BRT) method was used to screen and rank variables to predict nitrate concentration at the depths of domestic and public well supplies. The novel approach included as predictor variables outputs from existing physically based models of the Central Valley. The top five most important predictor variables included two oxidation/reduction variables (probability of manganese concentration to exceed 50 ppb and probability of dissolved oxygen concentration to be below 0.5 ppm), field-scale adjusted unsaturated zone nitrogen input for the 1975 time period, average difference between precipitation and evapotranspiration during the years 1971–2000, and 1992 total landscape nitrogen input. Twenty-five variables were selected for the final model for log-transformed nitrate. In general, increasing probability of anoxic conditions and increasing precipitation relative to potential evapotranspiration had a corresponding decrease in nitrate concentration predictions. Conversely, increasing 1975 unsaturated zone nitrogen leaching flux and 1992 total landscape nitrogen input had an increasing relative impact on nitrate predictions. Three-dimensional visualization indicates that nitrate predictions depend on the probability of anoxic conditions and other factors, and that nitrate predictions generally decreased with increasing groundwater age.

California↗

USGS2018

Mount St. Helens retrospective: Lessons learned since 1980 and remaining challenges

Since awakening from a 123-year repose in 1980, Mount St. Helens has provided an opportunity to study changes in crustal magma storage at an active arc volcano—a process of fundamental importance to eruption forecasting and hazards mitigation. There has been considerable progress, but important questions remain unanswered. Was the 1980 eruption triggered by an injection of magma into an upper crustal reservoir? If so, when? How did magma rise into the edifice without producing detectable seismicity deeper than ∼2.5 km or measurable surface deformation beyond the volcano’s north flank? Would precursory activity have been recognized earlier if current monitoring techniques had been available? Despite substantial improvements in monitoring capability, similar questions remain after the dome-forming eruption of 2004–2008. Did additional magma accumulate in the reservoir between the end of the 1980–1986 eruption and the start of the 2004–2008 eruption? If so, when? What is the significance of a relative lull in seismicity and surface deformation for several years prior to the 2004–2008 eruption onset? How did magma reach the surface without producing seismicity deeper than ∼2 km or measurable deformation more than a few hundred meters from the vent? Has the reservoir been replenished since the eruption ended, and is it now primed for the next eruption? What additional precursors, if any, should be expected? This paper addresses these questions, explores possible answers, and identifies unresolved issues in need of additional study. The 1980–1986 and 2004–2008 eruptions could have resulted from second boiling during crystallization of magma long-resident in an upper crustal reservoir, rather than from injection of fresh magma from below. If reservoir pressurization and magma ascent were slow enough, resulting strain might have been accommodated by viscoelastic deformation, without appreciable seismicity or surface deformation, until rising magma entered a brittle regime within 2–2.5 km of the surface. Given the remarkably gas-poor nature of the 2004–2008 dome lava, future eruptive activity might require a relatively long period of quiescence and reservoir pressurization or a large injection of fresh magma—an event that arguably has not occurred since the Kalama eruptive period (C.E. 1479–1720).

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