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Long-term performance of Aanderaa optodes and sea-bird SBE-43 dissolved-oxygen sensors bottom mounted at 32 m in Massachusetts Bay

A field evaluation of two new dissolved-oxygen sensing technologies, the Aanderaa Instruments AS optode model 3830 and the Sea-Bird Electronics, Inc., model SBE43, was carried out at about 32-m water depth in western Massachusetts Bay. The optode is an optical sensor that measures fluorescence quenching by oxygen molecules, while the SBE43 is a Clark polarographic membrane sensor. Optodes were continuously deployed on bottom tripod frames by exchanging sensors every 4 months over a 19-month period. A Sea-Bird SBE43 was added during one 4-month deployment. These moored observations compared well with oxygen measurements from profiles collected during monthly shipboard surveys conducted by the Massachusetts Water Resources Authority. The mean correlation coefficient between the moored measurements and shipboard survey data was >0.9, the mean difference was 0.06 mL L −1 , and the standard deviation of the difference was 0.15 mL L −1 . The correlation coefficient between the optode and the SBE43 was >0.9 and the mean difference was 0.07 mL L −1 . Optode measurements degraded when fouling was severe enough to block oxygen molecules from entering the sensing foil over a significant portion of the sensing window. Drift observed in two optodes beginning at about 225 and 390 days of deployment is attributed to degradation of the sensing foil. Flushing is necessary to equilibrate the Sea-Bird sensor. Power consumption by the SBE43 and required pump was 19.2 mWh per sample, and the optode consumed 0.9 mWh per sample, both within expected values based on manufacturers’ specifications.

Massachusetts↗

Ocean Drilling Program Leg 178 (Antarctic Peninsula): Sedimentology of glacially influenced continental margin topsets and foresets

Ocean Drilling Program Leg 178 (February-April 1998) drilled two sites (Sites 1097 and 1103) on the outer Antarctic Peninsula Pacific continental shelf. Recovered strata are no older than late Miocene or early Pliocene (<4.6 Ma). Recovery at shallow depths in loosely consolidated and iceberg-turbated bouldery sediment was poor but improved with increasing depth and consolidation to allow description of lithofacies and biofacies and interpretation of depositional environment. Site 1097 lies on the outer shelf within Marguerite Trough which is a major outlet for ice expanding seaward from the Antarctic Peninsula and reached a maximum depth drilled of 436.6 m below the sea floor (mbsf). Seismic stratigraphic data show flat-lying upper strata resting on strata that dip gently seaward. Uppermost strata, to a depth of 150 mbsf, were poorly recovered, but data suggest they consist of diamictites containing reworked and abraded marine microfauna. This interval is interpreted as having been deposited largely as till produced by subglacial cannibalization of marine sediments (deformation till) recording ice sheet expansion across the shelf. Underlying gently dipping strata show massive, stratified and graded diamictite facies with common bioturbation and slump stuctures that are interbedded with laminated and massive mudstones with dropstones. The succession contains a well-preserved in situ marine microfauna typical of open marine and proglacial marine environments. The lower gently dipping succession at Site 1097 is interpreted as a complex of sediment gravity flows formed of poorly sorted glacial debris. Site 1103 was drilled in that part of the continental margin that shows uppermost flat-lying continental shelf topsets overlying steeper dipping slope foresets seaward of a structural mid-shelf high. Drilling reached a depth of 363 mbsf with good recovery in steeply dipping continental slope foreset strata. Foreset strata are dominated by massive and chaotically stratified diamictites interbedded with massive and graded sandstones and mudstones. The sedimentary record and seismic stratigraphy is consistent with deposition on a continental slope from debris flows and turbidity currents released from a glacial source. Data from Sites 1097 and 1103 suggest the importance of aggradation of the Antarctic Peninsula continental shelf by tilt deposition and progradation of the slope by mass flow. This may provide a model for the interpretation of Palaeozoic and Proterozoic glacial successions that accumulated on glacially influenced continental margins.

Marine Geology↗

Pilot framework for fish habitat assessments across tidal and non tidal waters in the Patuxent River Basin

As part of the 2014 Chesapeake Bay Watershed Agreement, all Bay States and the District of Columbia have committed to improving the condition of the Bay, which includes a goal to achieve sustainable fisheries. One outcome under that broad goal is improved effectiveness of fish habitat conservation and preservation efforts. In support of that outcome, the U.S. Geological Survey Eastern Ecological Science Center (USGS-EESC) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association’s National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science (NOAA-NCCOS) are actively developing datasets, methods, and analyses to conduct fish habitat assessments in the Chesapeake Bay watershed, guided by recommendations from a regional stakeholder workshop held by the Chesapeake Bay Program’s (CBP) Fish Habitat Action Team (FHAT) in 2018. The joint USGS and NOAA team has been collaborating on methods for conducting inland and estuarine assessments and exploring whether a seamless headwater to estuary assessment could be developed. The goals of this assessment are to benefit both State and Federal fisheries managers, help advance fisheries science, and provide beneficial information for the public. While past national and regional assessments (e.g. the National Fish Habitat Partnership National Assessment) treated inland and estuarine fish habitat conditions separately due to differences in environments, GIS data representation, and data availability, a seamless habitat assessment could be of value for a broad range of stakeholders as many fish species, several of which are invasive or under federal jurisdiction, use habitats across both inland and estuarine waters. This project developed a pilot framework, explored and tested methods necessary for a finer scale, seamless assessment across both inland and estuarine waters, and demonstrated its use. Although there was interest by the CBP FHAT for the generation of a Baywide fish habitat assessment that spanned tidal salt, tidal fresh, warm non-tidal and cold non-tidal waters, there are a myriad of implementation details and considerations around conducting a Baywide assessment across all four of these general habitat areas. Therefore, the practical need to conduct a tributary-specific pilot assessment arose. At the beginning of this pilot process, members of the FHAT were presented with a decision matrix to choose a study basin using factors such as data availability and tributary size. FHAT members chose the Patuxent River basin, which has been relatively well sampled and studied. Several spatial frameworks were considered before selection of an inclusive gridded framework for summary and analysis that represented inland drainage networks and landscape influences as well as estuarine bathymetry. A suite of landscape and in-water stressor variables were summarized into the framework and were largely generalized over time. In order to assess the viability of the framework, we chose to use species distribution modeling for each of the species to test the framework’s ability to predict habitat use of non-tidal resident, estuarine resident, and migratory species. Tessellated darter (Etheostoma olmstedi), American eel (Anguilla rostrata), and white perch (Morone americana) were chosen as illustrative fish species based on data availability, and differences in life history and habitat use. A nested modeling approach, which involved successive model runs at multiple scales (1000m, 100m, and 10m raster grids) was developed to examine differences in variable importance at different spatial scales and to enhance modeling efficiency. For white perch, a complementary modeling analysis was performed for variables available only in estuarine waters. For all testing, an ensemble modeling approach was conducted, using a suite of potential statistical techniques driven by model strength and variable predictive power. The statistical testing that we conducted was intended only to test the framework and modeling approach, and not to definitively predict all habitats where specific fish species might be present. The modeling we conducted to test the framework did have some limitations. For example, the spatial distribution of favorable habitat areas for white perch was likely influenced by the predominance of fish survey locations near the center channel of the river and the use of generalized in-water conditions. For all species, the use of juvenile and adult fish survey data limits the estimation of habitat use to those life stages. Despite such limitations of the data inputs and modeling approach, we found the framework could seamlessly predict fish habitat distribution across freshwater and tidal environments and integrate the influence of landscape stressors with local in-water factors. The developed framework presented to the Sustainable Fisheries Goal Implementation Team (GIT) and FHAT is informative and could potentially be used for other modeling applications in the Chesapeake Bay watershed and elsewhere. In particular the framework and modeling approach lend themselves to evaluating living resource distributions and underlying habitat conditions in shallow tidal waters and beyond, as recommended by the recent Comprehensive Evaluation of System Response (CESR) report from the Chesapeake Bay Program.

Maryland↗

Palynological record from the North Atlantic region at 3 Ma: Vegetational distribution during a period of global warmth

Pollen assemblages from five mid-Pliocene, deep-marine and shallow-marine sites in the North Atlantic Ocean region were analyzed quantitatively to estimate vegetational composition and terrestrial paleoclimates during a time interval centered at about 3 Ma. Three subarctic sites (58–67°N latitude) from the Norwegian Sea, northern Iceland, and the Labrador Sea yielded pollen assemblages characteristic of mixed conifer-hardwood vegetation; these assemblages have no close modern analogs, but the most similar modern vegetation is that of the Tsuga (hemlock)-northern hardwood forests of Newfoundland and Nova Scotia (45–50°N). The presence of such vegetation at these sites indicates mid-Pliocene January temperatures from 4 to 10°C warmer than today and a northward shift of the deciduous forest zone into areas presently occupied by boreal forests. Pollen assemblages from the mid-latitude (36°N) Yorktown Formation site in southeastern Virginia, USA represent Quercus-Carya-Pinus (oak-hickory-pine) forests, similar to those presently occupying much of the Atlantic coastal plain of the United States. Modern analogs for this site are located off the coasts of North Carolina and South Carolina, indicating mid-Pliocene January temperatures 3–5°C warmer than today. In southwestern Florida (27°N), pollen assemblages from the mid-Pliocene Pincrest Beds are representative of pine-dominated communities, similar to Pinus palustris/P. ellittii forests (longleaf/slash pine) growing in Florida today. Close modern analogs for the Pinecrest Beds are located at numerous sites around the Florida peninsula, indicating mid-Pliocene temperatures about the same as today for this region. These sites show a gradient from much higher than present temperatures at high latitudes to little change from present temperatures at low latitudes and low elevations; a similar pattern is shown by mid-Pliocene sea-surface and isotopic data. Such a gradient also is consistent with the northward migration of the boreal forest zone, covering sites as far north as Meighen and Banks Islands, a northward shift of the deciduous-boreal forest boundary in both North America and Europe, and little change in vegetational distribution in low elevation sites in subtropical latitudes during the mid-Pliocene warm interval. Atmospheric temperaturs estimated from vegetational distributions indicate a Pliocene to modern temperature anomaly of a similar pattern and magnitude to that indicated by sea-surface temperatures. These data are most consistent with current general circulation model simulations of climate changes in response to increased meridional heat transport.

Florida, Newfoundland and Labrador, Virginia↗

Three-dimensional modeling of fine sediment transport by waves and currents in a shallow estuary

A suspended sediment transport model is implemented in the unstructured‐grid SUNTANS model and applied to study fine‐grained sediment transport in South San Francisco Bay. The model enables calculation of suspension of bottom sediment based on combined forcing of tidal currents and wind waves. We show that accurate results can be obtained by employing two‐size classes which are representative of microflocs and macroflocs in the Bay. A key finding of the paper is that the critical calibration parameter is the ratio of the erosion of the microflocs to macroflocs from the bed. Different values of this erosion ratio are needed on the shallow shoals and deeper channels because of the different nature of the sediment dynamics in these regions. Application of a spatially variable erosion ratio and critical shear stress for erosion is shown to accurately reproduce observed suspended sediment concentration at four‐field sites located along a cross‐channel transect. The results reveal a stark contrast between the behavior of the suspended sediment concentration on the shoals and in the deep channel. Waves are shown to resuspend sediments on the shoals, although tidal and wind‐generated currents are needed to mix the thin wave‐driven suspensions into the water column. The contribution to the suspended sediment concentration in the channel by transport from the shoals is similar in magnitude to that due to local resuspension. However, the local contribution is in phase with strong bottom currents which resuspend the sediments, while the contribution from the shoals peaks during low‐water slack tide.

San Francisco Bay↗

Aeromagnetic study of the midcontinent gravity high of central United States

A composite map of detailed aeromagnetic surveys over the midcontinent gravity high provides coverage of the 600-mi-long buried belt of mafic rocks of the Keweenawan Series from their outcrop localities in Minnesota and Wisconsin through Iowa and Nebraska. A map of the subsurface extent of the mafic rocks, based on the intricate magnetic patterns, shows that the rocks form a long, semicontinuous block, averaging 40 mi wide and consisting mainly of a sequence of layered flows. This sequence is probably fault-bounded and has been tilted up along the margins, where the linearity of the anomalies indicates steeper dips. The associated clastic rocks, indicated by a smoother magnetic pattern, occur in basins along both sides of the mafic belt and in grabens and a series of axial basins on the upper surface of the block. The well-defined outliers of flows marginal to the main block and the truncation of some of the outermost flow units along a diagonal boundary striking at an angle to them suggest that the present boundaries of the block are postdepositional structural features. The basins and the edges of the block appear to have controlled later, largely vertical movement in the overlying Paleozoic and younger sedimentary cover. Calculated models based on coincident magnetic and detailed gravity profiles along typical cross sections of the midcontinent gravity high show that the block of mafic rocks is steep-sided and as much as several miles thick. The free-air gravity anomaly, which consists of a large positive maximum flanked by minima, averages very close to zero, indicating that this major crustal feature is regionally compensated, although locally each of its components shows a large departure from equilibrium. Remanent magnetization is a primary factor in the interpretation of the magnetic data. Magnetic property studies of Keweenawan mafic rocks in the Lake Superior region show that remanent magnetization may be five times the magnetization induced by the present Earth's field and differs from it radically in direction. This magnetization was acquired before the flows were tilted into their present positions. A computed magnetic profile shows that a trough of flows with such a magnetization and inward-dipping limbs can account for the observed persistent lows along the western edge of the block, the relatively low magnetic values along the axis of the block, and the large positive anomaly along the eastern side of the block. Flows as much as 1 mi thick near the base of the sequence have a remanent magnetization with a nearly opposite polarity. This reverse polarity has been measured on both sides of Lake Superior and is probably also present farther south, particularly in Iowa where the outer units of the block in an area north of Des Moines give rise to a prominent magnetic low. The axis of this long belt of Keweenawan mafic rocks cuts discordantly through the prevailing east-west-trending fabric of the older Precambrian terrane from southern Kansas to Lake Superior. This belt has several major left-lateral offsets, one of which produces a complete hiatus in the vicinity of the 40th parallel where an east-west transcontinental rift or fracture zone has been proposed. The axial basins of clastic rocks are outlined by linear magnetic anomalies and show a concordant relation to the structure of the mafic flows. These basins are oriented at an angle to the main axis, suggesting that the entire feature originated as a major rift composed of a series of short, linear, en echelon segments with offsets similar to the transform faults characterizing the present mid-ocean rift system. This midcontinent rift may well have been part of a Keweenawan global rift system with initial offsets consisting of transform faults along pre-existing fractures, but apparently it never fully developed laterally into an ocean basin, and the upwelling mafic material was localized along a relatively narrow belt.

Geological Society of America Bulletin↗

Sediment budgets, transport, and depositional trends in a large tidal delta

The Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta is the largest delta on the west coast of the United States. It is formed where the confluence of California’s two largest rivers (the Sacramento and San Joaquin) meet the ocean tides and has a significant physical gradient from fluvial to tidal. It is a semidiurnal system (two high and two low tides per day). Today, the Delta is one of the most manipulated in the United States. Once composed of many shallow, meandering and braided dendritic channels and dead-end sloughs and wetlands, it is now a network of leveed canals moving clear water around subsided islands. It historically has supported a biologically diverse tidal wetland complex, of which only 3% remains today (Whipple et al., 2012). It has also witnessed a collapse in the native fish populations. The Delta provides critical habitat for native species, however the hydrology and water quality are complicated by manipulations and diversions to satisfy multiple statewide objectives. Today water managers face co-equal goals of water supply to Californians and maintenance of ecosystem health and function. The Delta is a hub for both a multi-hundred-million dollar agricultural industry and a massive north-to-south water delivery system, supplying the primary source of freshwater to Central Valley farmers and drinking water for two-thirds of California’s population. Large pump facilities support the water demand and draw water from the Delta, further altering circulation patterns and redirecting the net flow toward the export facilities (Monsen et al., 2007). Fluvial sedimentation, along with organic accumulation, creates and sustains the Delta landscape. Hydraulic mining for gold in the watershed during the late 1800s delivered an especially large sediment pulse to the Delta. More recently, from 1955 to the present, a significant sediment decline has been observed that is thought to have been caused mostly by the construction of water storage reservoirs that trap the upstream sediment supply (Wright and Schoellhamer, 2004). Today, one concern is whether the volume of sediment supplied from the upper watershed is sufficient to support ecological function and sustain the Delta landscape and ecosystem in the face of climate change, sea level rise, and proposed restoration associated with the Bay Delta Conservation Plan (http://baydeltaconservationplan.com). Ecosystem health is a management focus and 150,000 acres of restoration is currently proposed, therefore it is of increasingly important to understand the quantity of sediment available for marsh and wetland restoration throughout the Bay Delta Estuary. It is also important to understand the pathways for sediment transport and the sediment budget into each of three Delta regions (figure 1) to guide restoration planning, modeling, and management.

California↗

Assessing streamflow sensitivity to variations in glacier mass balance

The mountains ringing the Gulf of Alaska (GOA) receive upwards of 4–8 m yr −1 of precipitation (Simpson et al.2005; Weingartner et al. 2005; O’Neel 2012), much of which runs off into productive coastal waters. The alpine landscape is heavily glacierized, and storage and turnover of water by glaciers substantially influences the regional surface water balance (Neal et al. 2010). In turn, the land-to-ocean flux of freshwater impacts the biogeochemistry, physical oceanography, freshwater and marine ecology of the downstream components of the GOA ecosystem (e.g., Royer et al. 2001; Hood and Scott 2008). In this way, the links between terrestrial and ocean ecosystems along the GOA have widespread impacts on regional socioeconomic issues including water and hydropower resources, fish populations, and sea level change (Dorava and Milner 2000; Royer and Grosch 2006; Cherry et al. 2010; Gardner et al. 2013). Moreover, predicting future changes in physical, chemical and biological processes in near-shore ecosystems along the GOA hinges, in part, on developing a robust understanding of water storage and transfer by glaciers through streams to the ocean. Glacierized basins (i.e. presently ice covered as opposed to glaciated, or historically ice covered) are very efficient producers of runoff, yielding 2–10 times greater runoff than similarly sized, non-glacierized basins (Mayo 1984). The unique energy balance that characterizes these basins (Jansson et al. 2003; Hock 2005) results in substantial alterations to streamflow, even when fractional ice coverage is very small (Stahl and Moore 2006). Consistent and precise treatment of glacier runoff is key to accurate assessment of hydrologic, ecological and socioeconomic impacts, but previously used definitions for glacier runoff are variable. They include: 1) meltwater produced as negative annual mass balance (e.g., Fountain and Tangborn 1985); 2) storage changes in the monthly water budget, where solid precipitation is balanced by melt and evaporation (Huss 2011, concept #2); 3) meltwater derived from melting ice only (irrespective of melting snow or mass balance) (Nolin et al. 2010; Huss 2011, concept #1); 4) all meltwater derived from the glacier surface (Cogley et al. 2011, meltwater runoff); 5) total runoff from the glacier surface (meltwater runoff plus rain on the glacier) (Neal et al. 2010). Total glacier runoff (Definitions 4 and 5 above) includes a contribution from annual mass balance, i.e. the sum of accumulation and ablation through a mass balance year (Definition 1), or what has historically been referred to as the “net” balance (Cogley et al. 2011). Indeed, annual balance has been shown to be an important driver of streamflow trends in glacierized basins, with periods of persistent negative annual balance resulting in statistically significant increases in streamflow (e.g., Pellicciotti et al. 2010). However, in maritime climates, anomalies in glacier runoff can be disconnected from annual balance because of the high variability in winter precipitation. For example, positive anomalies in winter accumulation can result in elevated levels of glacier runoff in times of positive annual mass balance (Thayyen and Gergan 2010). Quantifying the impacts of changing glacier geometries (annual balance) on glacier runoff is essential for predicting future changes in streamflow in glacierized basins. However, determining the role that this component plays in total glacier runoff (Definition 5) requires consistent measurements of seasonal (or shorter period) mass balances, measurements of precipitation at multiple locations within a basin, and streamflow measurements in close proximity to a glacier’s terminus. Practical and logistical challenges associated with assembling such data sets typically preclude such partitioning. As a result, most analyses of the relationship between annual mass balance and streamflow rely on some component of model output to compute glacier runoff (e.g. Huss et al. 2008; Kaser et al. 2010). Ultimately, developing an understanding of how total glacier runoff will change in the future is critical for predicting downstream ecological impacts associated with changes in riverine fluxes of water, sediment, and solutes (e.g., metals and nutrients) to near-shore coastal ecosystems. The purpose of this paper is to evaluate relationships among seasonal and annual glacier mass balances, glacier runoff and streamflow in two glacierized basins in different climate settings. We use long-term glacier mass balance and streamflow datasets from the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Alaska Benchmark Glacier Program to compare and contrast glacier-streamflow interactions in a maritime climate (Wolverine Glacier) with those in a continental climate (Gulkana Glacier). Our overall goal is to improve our understanding of how glacier mass balance processes impact streamflow, ultimately improving our conceptual understanding of the future evolution of glacier runoff in continental and maritime climates.

Alaska↗

Sea lamprey mark type, wounding rate, and parasite-host preference and abundance relationships for lake trout and other species in Lake Ontario

We examined how the frequency of attacks by Sea Lamprey on fishes in Lake Ontario varied in response to Sea Lamprey abundance and preferred host abundance (Lake Trout >432mm). For this analysis we assembled seven data sets. Two fishery independent surveys for Lake Trout: US Geological Survey (USGS)/New York State Department of Environmental Conservation (NYSDEC) south shore September gillnet assessment of adult Lake Trout (USGS/NYSDEC SGNS)( Lantry and Lantry 2011); and Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources (OMNR) monthly June-November community index gillnetting in northeastern Lake Ontario (OMNR CIS) (Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources 2011). One angler survey: NYSDEC April-September Fishing Boat Survey data collected along the south shore for Chinook and Coho salmon, and Rainbow and Brown trout (NYSDEC FBS) ( Lantry and Eckert 2012). Two spawning run datasets: OMNR north shore data including spring spawning runs of Rainbow Trout in the Ganaraska River and electroshocking data for fall spawning runs of Chinook and Coho salmon in the Credit River (Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources 2011); and NYSDEC data from the Salmon River on the southeastern shore including October spawning runs of Chinook and Coho salmon. One Sea Lamprey spawning survey: Department of Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO)/US Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) data for spawning-phase Sea Lamprey abundance collected from known spawning streams distributed throughout the Lake Ontario drainage basin (Mullet et al. 2003). One assessment of the abundance of dead Lake Trout: USGS/NYSDEC October-November bottom trawl collection of Lake Trout carcasses (Schneider et al. 1996). Annual patterns in A1, A2 and A3 wound stages did not track well in plots of wounding rates for the USGS/NYSDEC SGNS and correlations between A1 and later stages did not exist. A1 rates were not correlated to either Lake Trout abundance or Sea Lamprey numbers when considered alone, but were strongly correlated to the ratio between Sea Lamprey numbers and Lake Trout abundance (parasite/host ratio). While A2 and A3 rates were correlated to each other, neither was consistently correlated to any of the Lake Trout abundance or Sea Lamprey abundance parameters and sums of A1 to A3 rates did not improve correlations over those for A1 rates considered alone. Our analysis of the strain-specific susceptibility of Lake Trout to attack by Sea Lampreys extended the previous Schneider et al. (1996) analysis of three strains (SUP, CWL, and SEN) and 11 years of data 1982-1992 to an analysis of seven strains (SUP, CWL, SEN, JEN, LEW, ONT, and OXS) and two groups of unmarked fish (1983-1995 and 1996-2010) and included 18 more years of data through 2010. The susceptibility to attack for CWLs and SENs were below SUPs and nearly identical to the earlier values, new values for LEWs were greater than SUPS and values of unmarked Lake Trout prior to 1996 were unexpectedly greater than SUPs. By reexamining the Schneider et al. (1996) regression relationship between A1 wounding on Lake Trout and the incidence of Lake Trout carcasses recovered in fall bottom trawls (including three additional years of data), and substituting A1 wounding rate for total numbers of A1s observed which was used as the independent variable in the previous version, we were able to increase the variance explained by the relationship from an r2 of 0.60 to 0.88. Healing rate of wounds was explored by examining the monthly incidence of A1 and A2 wounds on Lake Trout from the OMNR CIS. Because wounding intensity varied between years and monthly sample size was frequently low, the ratio of A2 to A1s wounds was used to index how wounds accumulated or disappeared from the Lake Trout populations across seasons. The A2/A1 ratio decreased between June/July and October. A simple wounding model for Lake Trout was constructed to simulate the pattern of ratios by inflicting wounds on the population each month according to a predetermined distribution and including parameters for lethality (fixed distribution) and healing rate of A1 and A2 wounds (discretely varied between simulations). The best simulated representation (ratio size and monthly pattern) of the OMNR CIS data came from an A1 healing rate of 0.5 months and an A2 rate of 2 months. To examine whether alternate hosts provided reliable data to index damage caused by Sea Lampreys we compared September values of abundance and A1 wounding rates on Lake Trout, Sea Lamprey abundance, and the parasite/host ratio with NYSDEC Creel data for observations of Sea lampreys attached to sport-caught salmonids and to wounding observations for salmonids sampled in OMNR and NYSDEC spawning run assessments. Attachment frequency on NYSDEC Creel Chinook Salmon, Brown Trout, and Rainbow Trout were strongly correlated to all measures of Lake Trout abundance and wounding and to the parasite/host ratio. Chinook Salmon and Coho Salmon wounding observations for the NYSDEC Salmon River spawning run assessments and Rainbow Trout from the OMNR Ganaraska River spawning run assessment were strongly correlated to wounding measures for nearly all salmonids and to the parasite/host ratio.

Lake Ontario↗

Estimated average annualized tsunami losses for the United States

Tsunami hazards are substantial threats to coastal communities across the United States (U.S.) and its territories. U.S. states and territories collaborate through the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP) to develop their own tsunami-hazard information for outreach and evacuation planning. An effort to curate this tsunami-hazard information to support comprehensive risk analysis at the national level has not yet been completed. In support of this effort, the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) collaborated with the NTHMP, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) starting in 2023. This collaboration included the collection and analysis of existing tsunami hazard data and methods in the U.S. Tsunami subject matter experts identified and selected scientifically defensible methods for estimating the risks to buildings and populations in coastal communities. These efforts may support decision making regarding resilience policies, priorities, strategies and funding levels. Tsunamis can be triggered by earthquakes, subaerial or submarine landslides, volcanic eruptions, glacial calving, near-earth objects, weather or other events. These events can cause severe destruction, injuries, and loss of life due to powerful currents and flooding. Tsunamis pose a substantial threat to the western United States and all U.S. territories, as described below. ■ Hawaii is threatened by distant tsunamis due to its central location in the Pacific Ocean basin and has a history of local events. ■ Alaska, particularly the Aleutian Islands, faces local tsunami threats due to proximity to the Alaska-Aleutian Subduction Zone, as well as distant tsunamis from around the Pacific Ocean basin. ■ The western coast of the U.S. is threatened by distant tsunamis from around the Pacific Ocean basin and local source tsunamis from earthquakes generated within the Cascadia Subduction Zone in the Pacific Northwest. ■ American Samoa faces local tsunami threats from earthquakes generated in the nearby Tonga Trench, as well as distant tsunami threats. ■ Guam and the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands are threatened by local tsunamis from the nearby Mariana Subduction Zone, as well as distant sources from around the Pacific Ocean Basin. ■ Puerto Rico and the United States Virgin Islands are threatened by multiple local and distant tsunami sources, such as the Puerto Rico Trench (PRT), given their location in the complex seismic region of the Caribbean Sea. Several historical events stand out because of their catastrophic impacts. ■ In the Pacific Northwest, the 1700 Cascadia earthquake caused a tsunami that affected coastal Native American communities, though the extent of the damage is not fully documented (Ludwin, et al., 2005). ■ In Puerto Rico, the 1918 earthquake triggered a tsunami that caused $77 million in damage in 2022 dollars and 116 fatalities, primarily along the western coast (Coffman et al., 1982). ■ The 1946 Aleutian Islands earthquake triggered a massive tsunami that devastated Hilo, Hawaii, killing 158 people and resulting in approximately $375 million in damage (adjusted to 2022 dollars) (Fisher et al., 2023). ■ The 1964 Alaska earthquake (M 9.2) generated tsunamis that caused severe destruction in some communities across Alaska, Oregon, and California. This disaster led to a total of 124 fatalities and approximately $2.9 billion in property damage (adjusted to 2022 dollars) (Brocher et al., 2014) (Alaska Science Center, 2024). ■ In American Samoa, a tsunami generated by the 2009 Samoa earthquake (Mw 8.1) caused widespread devastation, resulting in 34 confirmed fatalities (Apatu et al., 2013) and economic losses exceeding $160 million (adjusted to 2022 dollars) (DHS, 2011). More recent events, including the 2010 Chile earthquake, the 2011 Japan earthquake, and the 2022 Tonga volcanic eruption, resulted in millions of dollars in damage to numerous ports and harbors in the U.S. South Pacific territories, Hawaii, and along the west coast of the U.S. (Lynett, et al., 2022) (Wilson, et al., 2013). Since these events, the expansion of the built environment in lowlying areas along the coast has increased the exposure of buildings and people, thereby further escalating community risk from tsunamis. This report provides a comprehensive national assessment of earthquake-generated tsunami risk. It does not include impacts from tsunamis generated by landslides, volcanic eruptions, glacial calving, near-earth objects, weather, or other events. This study is based on the best available hazard data from the U.S. Pacific Coast (California, Oregon and Washington), Alaska, Hawaii, U.S. Pacific Territories (American Samoa, Guam and Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands) and Caribbean Territories (Puerto Rico and United States Virgin Islands). Tsunami risks associated with states along the East Coast, Gulf Coast, and Great Lakes are not included in this study because Hazus 6.1 software (FEMA 2024a) does not currently include the ability to analyze tsunami risk in those states. Once modeling capabilities and tsunami hazard data become available for additional states, FEMA may incorporate these data into future editions of this study.

Alaska, California, Hawaii Oregon, Washington↗

The Missoula and Bonneville floods—A review of ice-age megafloods in the Columbia River basin

The Channeled Scabland of eastern Washington State, USA, brought megafloods to the scientific forefront. A 30,000-km2 landscape of coulees and cataracts carved into the region’s loess-covered basalt attests to overwhelming volumes of energetic water. The scarred landscape, garnished by huge boulder bars and far-travelled ice-rafted erratics, spurred J Harlen Bretz’s vigorously disputed flood hypothesis in the 1920s. First known as the Spokane flood, it was rebranded the Missoula flood once understood that the water came from glacial Lake Missoula, formed when the Purcell Trench lobe of the last-glacial Cordilleran ice sheet dammed the Clark Fork valley in northwestern Idaho with ice a kilometer thick. Bretz’s flood evidence in the once-remote Channeled Scabland, widely seen and elaborated by the 1950s, eventually swayed consensus for cataclysmic flooding. Missoula flood questions then turned to some that continue today: how many? when? how big? what routes? what processes? The Missoula floods passed through eastern Washington by a multitude of valleys, coulees and scabland tracts, some contemporaneously, some sequentially. Which routings and their timing depended on the positions of various lobes of the multi-pronged Cordilleran ice sheet and the erosional development of the channels themselves. The first floods mostly followed the big bend of Columbia valley looping through north-central Washington. But the south-advancing Okanogan ice lobe soon blocked that path, forming long-lasting glacial Lake Columbia in the impounded Columbia valley. Missoula floods into this lake were diverted south out of the Columbia valley and into eastern Washington coulees and scabland tracts. At least four floods entered Moses Coulee, but then as the Okanogan lobe advanced over and blocked the head of that coulee, more eastern paths took the water, including Grand Coulee and the Telford-Crab-Creek and Cheney-Palouse scabland tracts. Flood routing also depended on the erosion of the coulees. At some point, headward erosion of upper Grand Coulee lowered the divide saddle between the west-running Columbia valley and the deep and wide Grand Coulee heading southwest. Still uncertain is when this happened and the consequences with respect to the stage and extent of glacial Lake Columbia and to flood access to the other, higher, flood routes. Downstream, all flood routes converged onto Pasco Basin, flowed through Wallula Gap and the Columbia River Gorge into the Pacific Ocean, following submarine canyons and depositing sediment layers on abyssal plains. Stratigraphic studies indicate dozens—likely more than a hundred—separate Missoula floods during the last glacial period. Over the length of the flood route, backwater areas and depositional basins preserve multiple flood beds, many of which are separated by signs of time, including volcanic ash layers and soil development in subaerial environments; and varve-like beds and pelagic mud layers in lacustrine and marine settings. Evidence also comes from the glacial Lake Missoula basin, where stratigraphy indicates dozens of filling and emptying cycles. Varve counts in conjunction of radiocarbon dating and paleomagnetic secular variation show the repeated filling-and-release cycles of glacial Lake Missoula had intervals possibly as long as 100 years early in the lake’s history but diminished to just one or two years for the last few floods. This behavior accords with jökulhlaup-style floods released by subglacial drainage from a self-dumping ice-dammed lake. But not yet clear is whether such a mechanism applies to all the floods or if some emptied more cataclysmically as hypothesized by some. Radiocarbon dating of sparse organic materials remains key to defining flood chronology but has been lately bolstered by analyses of terrestrial cosmogenic nuclides and optically stimulated luminescence. Varve counts and paleomagnetic secular variation studies help to define durations and intervals represented by sequences of flood beds. The ~16 ka Mount St. Helens Set S tephra is commonly interbedded within flood deposits, enabling correlation of deposits among sites. Tephra from the 13.7–13.4 ka eruption of Glacier Peak overlies all glacial Lake Missoula and Missoula flood deposits, defining an end time. Overall conclusions are that glacial Lake Missoula was extant and producing floods for at least 3–4 ky during 20–14 ka. At least ~75 floods preceded Mount St Helens Set S, followed by 30 or more after the tephra fall. Most floods entered glacial Lake Columbia, impounded by the Okanogan lobe, for 2–5 ky between about 18.5 and 15 ka. Glacial Lake Columbia outlived Lake Missoula by >200–400 yr but may have been born later since at least one flood came down the Columbia valley before the Okanogan ice lobe blocked the Columbia valley at 18.5–18 ka. The maximum extent of the Okanogan and Purcell Trench lobes, many Missoula floods, substantial erosion of upper Grand Coulee, and the widespread tephra falls from Mount St. Helens eruptions all happened about 17–15 ka. People, in the area since 16.6–15.3 ka, almost certainly witnessed the last of the Missoula floods and later large floods from other ice-dammed lakes in the Columbia River basin. Quantitative flow analyses give peak discharge estimates and support understanding of erosional and depositional processes. The first flow assessments were simple cross-section calculations but recent assessments employ two-dimensional hydrodynamic models. The general finding is that emplacement of the maximum stage evidence requires about 20 million m3/s near the Lake Missoula outlet and about 5–15 million m3/s through Wallula Gap and downstream in the Columbia River Gorge. These hydraulic analyses raise still-unresolved questions regarding canyon erosion and possible additional water sources. The large Pleistocene Bonneville flood entered the Columbia River system from the southeast from pluvial Lake Bonneville, the Pleistocene predecessor to Great Salt Lake in the eastern Great Basin. During the last glacial, the lake basin filled, covering >50,000 km2 with 10,400 km3 of water before reaching its maximum possible stage governed by Red Rock Pass, the lowest divide separating the basin from the Snake River basin to the north. The overtopping lake rapidly incised 108–125 m into the Red Rock Pass outlet, spilling half of its total lake volume. G.K. Gilbert described the essential sequence in the 1870s, but the flood was mostly forgotten until the late 1950s when Harold Malde linked the spectacular scabland topography and bouldery “melon gravel” on the Snake River Plain to the Lake Bonneville overflow. The Bonneville flood appears to have been a singular event at about 18 ka. No evidence of multiple or pre-last-glacial spillovers has yet been found. Its total volume was about twice that of a maximum Lake Missoula flood yet its peak discharge was ~1 million m3/s, less than a tenth of the largest Missoula floods. Its comparatively simple flow path and much steadier flow make the Bonneville flood ideal for new studies of erosional and depositional processes. At least two floods seem to have passed down the Columbia valley after the last of the Missoula floods, including a large flood about ~14 ka likely from cataclysmic demise of the thinning Okanogan ice lobe dam impounding glacial Lake Columbia. Floods from earlier glacial ages left scant yet clear evidence in the Channeled Scabland and Columbia valley. But their source, timing, and magnitudes are little understood. Some deposits are paleomagnetically reversed, thus older than ~800 ka. Last-glacial floods and perhaps older ones affected the Snake River Plain, some likely sourced in lakes dammed by alpine glaciers in central Idaho.

Idaho, Oregon, Washington↗

Quantifying sea otter abundance, distribution, habitat use, and foraging intake in Cook Inlet, Alaska

Following near extirpation from the fur trade, sea otters ( Enhydra lutris ) have returned to occupy lower Cook Inlet since the 1950s, or earlier, with numbers increasing to ~11,000 and ~9,000 on the west and east side, respectively, by 2017. Northward range expansion on the west side has been negligible for decades with few animals found north of Kamishak Bay, while northward expansion on the east side has been more pronounced in recent decades. The reasons for these contrasting distribution patterns are not certain. Possible explanations for lack of expansion on the west side included 1) poor sea otter habitat north of Kamishak Bay; 2) adequate habitat north of Kamishak Bay but no incentive for sea otters to move north because of abundant food in Kamishak Bay, and/or sea otters discouraged from moving north of Kamishak Bay; 3) seasonal ice formation; or 4) seasonal presence of killer whales. This project was designed to document current sea otter abundance and distribution in lower Cook Inlet, including seasonal variation, and evaluate drivers of habitat use and foraging conditions, including how these overlap with Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) Lease Sale blocks. We found that the probability of sea otter presence in lower Cook Inlet was significantly related to depth and distance from shore with the highest probabilities of sea otter presence in areas ~7–8 kilometers (km) from shore in water ~20–30 meters (m) deep. Historical survey data suggest sea otter distribution has not changed dramatically since 2002, and while we detected significant seasonal changes including due to presence of heavy sea ice, the seasonal changes were modest and primarily related to locations with consistent winter ice formation on the west side of lower Cook Inlet. Overall, throughout the year, sea otters appeared to be utilizing most of the habitat within the 40-m depth contour on the east side of lower Cook Inlet, including Kachemak Bay. Sea otters on the west side reside largely within Kamishak Bay. Because of the shallow bathymetry of lower Cook Inlet, sea otters consistently occurred farther offshore than in many other areas of Alaska. The presence of sea otters, including females with pups, in these offshore waters indicates that sea otters can forage productively in these open water areas. Importantly, we documented that sea otters, including females with pups, occurred in most of the eastern BOEM lease blocks including the original Lease Sale 244 blocks 7064, 7114, 6162, 6310, 6360, 6410, 6458 and 6457. The relinquishments for these 7 leases were effective September 17, 2024: OCS-Y-02434 (block # 7064), OCS-Y-02435 (7114), OCS-Y-02436 (6162), OCS-Y-02438 (6357), OCS-Y-02442 (6407), OCS-Y02446 (6457), OCS-Y-02447 (6458) https://www.boem.gov/sites/default/files/documents/environment/Map%20of%20Active%20Leases%20 Cook%20Inlet%20OCS_0.pdf Regarding differential northward expansion on the east and west side of lower Cook Inlet, we found that wind and water circulation patterns make winter sea ice more prominent on the west side, but this had minimal effects on sea otter distribution. In addition, although there have been observations of killer whale ( Orcinus orca ) predation on sea otters in Cook Inlet, we did not see behavioral or distributional evidence that it was prevalent enough to have strong effects on sea otter habitat use. Benthic surveys using a remotely operated vehicle (ROV) indicated that epibenthic substrate and biological community heterogeneity differed between areas with and without otters, suggesting that these factors may explain the current distribution of otters within lower Cook Inlet. However, ROV surveys cannot assess infaunal prey abundance, making assessments of the role of prey availability difficult. The existence of a healthy Pacific razor clam ( Siliqua patula ) fishery along western lower Cook Inlet along the Lake Clark coast north of Kamishak Bay suggests there may still be a resource base for eventual expansion of sea otters into this area. Our shore-based forage observations indicated that sea otters exist near carrying capacity densities relative to nearshore prey resources. However, our distribution model suggests the bulk of the population lives offshore beyond our ability to observe their feeding activity. The fact that sea otters are a consistent presence in offshore areas suggests that prey resources in these areas were relatively abundant in comparison to nearshore prey resources, making foraging in offshore areas, with water depths of 0–40 m, energetically profitable. Prey types in these offshore areas of lower Cook Inlet likely included epifauna such as crabs and large urchins, in addition to infaunal clams based on the soft substrate habitat types that characterize lower Cook Inlet. Collectively, our results suggest that sea otters occupy most areas of lower Cook Inlet with appropriate benthic habitat types and prey resources, which includes areas within BOEM Lease Sale blocks. With the exception of the Lake Clark coast, sea otters may be approaching a food- and habitat-limited distribution and carrying capacity, suggesting that the current status of sea otters in lower Cook Inlet is likely to remain similar in the absence of significant changes to prey, habitat, predation, or anthropogenic disturbance.

Alaska↗

Detecting sea-level hazards: Simple regression-based methods for calculating the acceleration of sea level

This report documents the development of statistical tools used to quantify the hazard presented by the response of sea-level elevation to natural or anthropogenic changes in climate and ocean circulation. A hazard is a physical process (or processes) that, when combined with vulnerability (or susceptibility to the hazard), results in risk. This study presents the development and comparison of new and existing sea-level analysis methods, exploration of the strengths and weaknesses of the methods using synthetic time series, and when appropriate, synthesis of the application of the method to observed sea-level time series. These reports are intended to enhance material presented in peer-reviewed journal articles where it is not always possible to provide the level of detail that might be necessary to fully support or recreate published results. The purpose of this report is to document and compare three simple methodologies that have previously been used to provide estimates with associated errors of the acceleration of sea-level elevation. These techniques have been used by coastal scientists and planners in assessing coastal risk over a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. Because relative sea-level (SL) elevation time series contain energetic fluctuations at many time scales, extracting what can be relatively small rate and acceleration signals (along with estimates of the error) from much larger &ldquo;noise&rdquo; has proven to be both difficult and controversial. Acceleration is a preferred measure of SL response to recent changes in the Earth&rsquo;s climate because over time scales of 100 years or less slow vertical land motions (such as glacial isostatic adjustment) contribute only to the linear signal and not to acceleration, thus reducing the complexity of the analysis. Hence acceleration is useful if the goal of a study is to characterize and quantify the hazard associated with the changing relative elevation of water with respect to land on decadal time scales. Although in some cases it may be necessary to determine the cause of relative sea level rise, as a first step, it is important to accurately estimate the magnitude of the threat. Most researchers agree that global sea level (GSL) rose persistently through much of the 20th century at about 1.5&ndash;2.0 millimeters per year (mm/yr). There is far less agreement about whether the rate of sea-level rise (SLR) is increasing (that is, an acceleration in SL). Recent studies, and most of their predecessors, use tide gage data to quantify SL acceleration, A SL (t). In the current study, three techniques were used to calculate acceleration from tide gage data, and of those examined, it was determined that the two techniques based on sliding a regression window through the time series are more robust compared to the technique that fits a single quadratic form to the entire time series, particularly if there is temporal variation in the magnitude of the acceleration. The single-fit quadratic regression method has been the most commonly used technique in determining acceleration in tide gage data. The inability of the single-fit method to account for time-varying acceleration may explain some of the inconsistent findings between investigators. Properly quantifying A SL (t) from field measurements is of particular importance in evaluating numerical models of past, present, and future SLR resulting from anticipated climate change.

Open-File Report↗

Prevention, early detection and containment of invasive, nonnative plants in the Hawaiian Islands: current efforts and needs

Introduction: Invasive, non-native plants (or environmental weeds) have long been recognized as a major threat to the native biodiversity of oceanic islands (Cronk & Fuller, 1995; Denslow, 2003). Globally, several hundred non-native plant species have been reported to have major impacts on natural areas on oceanic islands (Kueffer et al ., 2009). In Hawaii, at least some 50 non-native plant species reach dominance in natural areas (Kueffer et al ., 2009) and many of them are known to impact ecosystem processes or biodiversity. One example is the invasive Australian tree fern ( Cyathea cooperi ), which has been shown to be very efficient at utilizing soil nitrogen and can grow six times as rapidly in height, maintain four times more fronds, and produce significantly more fertile fronds per month than the native Hawaiian endemic tree ferns, Cibotium spp. (Durand & Goldstein, 2001a, b). Additionally, while native tree ferns provide an ideal substrate for epiphytic growth of many understory ferns and flowering plants, the Australian tree fern has the effect of impoverishing the understory and failing to support an abundance of native epiphytes (Medeiros & Loope, 1993). Other notorious examples of invasive plant species problematic for biodiversity and ecosystem processes in Hawaii include miconia ( Miconia calvescens ), strawberry guava ( Psidium cattleianum ), albizia ( Falcataria moluccana ), firetree ( Morella faya ), clidemia ( Clidemia hirta ), kahili ginger ( Hedychium gardnerianum ), and fountain grass ( Pennisetum setaceum ), to name just a few. Fireweed ( Senecio madagascariensis ) is a recent example of a seriously problematic invasive species for Hawaii&rsquo;s agriculture and is damaging certain high-elevations native ecosystems as well. The threat of invasive plants has long been recognized in Hawaii and is well documented (e.g. Cox, 1999; Loope & Kraus, 2009 in press; Loope et al ., 2004; Mooney & Drake, 1986; Stone & Scott, 1985; Stone et al. , 1992). In many respects, Hawaii may be near the forefront among national and international efforts to address the burgeoning threat of invasive plants, perhaps especially in the field of outreach and education (Holt, 1996; Van Driesche & Van Driesche, 2000). However, given the scale of the problem many challenges still need to be addressed and gaps in the existing management system need to be identified. In particular, it appears that new non-native plant species are still introduced to the Hawaiian Islands at a high rate with little or no regard for their potential invasiveness. In fact, a Pacific-wide and a global survey of non-native plants on oceanic islands have both shown that on Hawaii among all archipelagos by far the highest number of problematic invasive species known from other areas in the world is already present (Denslow et al . 2009, Kueffer et al . 2009). Hawaii lacks an effective mechanism for tracking what species are present or incoming. For instance, early detection nursery surveys conducted on Maui in 2008 found over 300 species of cultivated vascular plants that have not previously been recorded in Hawaii (Starr et al. , in prep.). In spite of an innovative Hawaii Biological Survey (e.g. Eldredge & Evenhuis, 2003), there is no mechanism for recording presence of a species until it becomes naturalized. Some of these new introductions may quickly become serious pests. Fireweed, first recorded in Hawaii on the Big Island in the early 1980s, is now considered one of the Kueffer & Loope 2009 5/48 worst weeds of pastures and is also invading natural areas from near sea level to above 10,000 feet. Although the cultivated and as yet non-invasive Cortaderia selloana has been present in Hawaii for 50 years or more, the morphologically similar Cortaderia jubata was simultaneously found to be present on Maui and invading on a large scale in 1989. It played an important role in inspiring the establishment of the Maui Invasive Species Committee (MISC) in 1997, and MISC now spends roughly $200,000 per year removing and containing C. jubata to keep it from becoming widespread in high elevation conservation lands of East and West Maui. The existence of many similar examples shows that to date regulatory action to prevent new invasive plant species from establishing and spreading in Hawaii has not yet been as successful as it needs to be. In particular, because some problematic invasive species known from other areas in the world (Kueffer et al ., 2009; Weber, 2003) have not yet been recorded from Hawaii, preventive measures against the introduction and spread of such likely invasive species is therefore an urgent need for Hawaii. Indeed, regulation of importation and early detection and eradication of introduced species before they become abundant and widespread are widely considered the most cost-efficient and often only effective measures against the threat of new invasive species (Kueffer & Hirsch Hadorn, 2008; Wittenberg & Cock, 2001). Timing seems favorable for Hawaii to achieve effective protection against the threat of new invasive species through prevention, early detection, and eradication/containment. Through the establishment and evolution of Invasive Species Committees (ISCs) on each major Hawaiian island, the institutional capacity has been built up for prevention, early detection, containment, and outreach at an island scale. Weed risk assessment (Daehler et al ., 2004) and early detection methodologies (Starr et al. , in review-a, b) have been developed and tested specifically for Hawaii. Containment strategies have been successful (e.g., Special Ecological Areas in Hawaii Volcanoes National Park), and so have eradications of particular species on an island scale (e.g. mullein ( Verbascum thapsus ) and other species on Maui, fireweed ( Senecio madagascariensis ) on Kauai). These successful management strategies may be further strengthened through recently developed novel approaches in research (e.g. remote sensing, species distribution modelling, and molecular genetics tools). Another major recent achievement is the gained support of the plant industry for preventive measures against invasive species (see p. 13ff). Last but not least, regulatory action is also moving forward. Passage of House Bill 2517 by the 2008 Hawaii House and Senate and prompt signing of the bill into law by the Governor provides hope that action to ban the sale of a meaningful suite of restricted weeds can quickly proceed through the rulemaking phase into the implementation phase. This report documents these achievements and experiences and provides a range of perspectives on how to further develop prevention, early detection and containment of invasive species in Hawaii. The report is based on a symposium and workshop held at the 2008 Hawaii Conservation Conference in Honolulu on 31 July 2008.

Hawaii↗

U-Pb ages and geochemistry of zircon from Proterozoic plutons of the Sawatch and Mosquito ranges, Colorado, U.S.A.: Implications for crustal growth of the central Colorado province

A broad study of zircons from plutonic rocks of the Sawatch and Mosquito ranges of west-central Colorado (U.S.A.) was undertaken to significantly refine the magmatic chronology and chemistry of this under-studied region of the Colorado province. This region was chosen because it lies just to the north of the suspected arc-related Gunnison-Salida volcano-plutonic terrane, which has been the subject of many recent investigations—and whose origin is still debated. Our new results provide important insights into the processes active during Proterozoic crustal evolution in this region, and they have important ramifications for broader-scope crustal evolution models for southwestern North America. Twenty-four new U-Pb ages and sequentially acquired rare-earth element (REE), U, Th, and Hf contents of zircon have been determined using the sensitive high-resolution ion microprobe-reverse geometry (SHRIMP-RG). These zircon geochemistry data, in conjunction with whole-rock major- and trace-element data, provide important insights into zircon crystallization and melt fractionation, and they help to further constrain the tectonic environment of magma generation. Our detailed zircon and whole-rock data support the following three interpretations: (1) The Roosevelt Granite in the southern Sawatch Range was the oldest rock dated at 1,766 ± 7 Ma, and it intruded various metavolcanic and metasedimentary rocks. Geochemistry of both whole-rock and zircon supports the contention that this granite was produced in a magmatic arc environment and, therefore, is likely an extension of the older Dubois Greenstone Belt of the Gunnison Igneous Complex (GIC) and the Needle Mountains (1,770–1,755 Ma). Rocks of the younger Cochetopa succession of the GIC, the Salida Greenstone Belt, and the Sangre de Cristo Mountains (1,740–1,725 Ma) were not found in the Sawatch and Mosquito ranges. This observation strongly suggests that the northern edge of the Gunnison-Salida arc terrane underlies the southern portion of the Sawatch and Mosquito ranges. (2) Calc-alkalic to alkali-calcic magmas intruded this region approximately 55 m.y. after the Roosevelt Granite with emplacement of pre-deformational plutons at ca. 1,710 Ma (e.g., Henry Mountain Granite and diorite of Denny Creek), and this continued for at least 30 m.y., ending with emplacement of post-deformational plutons at ca. 1,680 Ma (e.g., Kroenke Granodiorite, granite of Fairview Peak, and syenite of Mount Yale). The timing of deformation can be constrained to sometime after intrusion of the diorite of Denny Creek and likely before the emplacement of the undeformed granite of Fairview Peak. Geochemistry of both whole-rock and zircon indicates that the older group of ca. 1,710-Ma plutons formed at shallower depths, and then they intruded the younger group of more deeply generated, commonly peraluminous and sodic plutons. Although absent in the Sawatch and Mosquito ranges, Mazatzal-age (ca. 1,680–1,620 Ma) plutonic rocks are present regionally. Inherited zircon components of Mazatzal-age were found as cores in some 1.4-Ga Sawatch and Mosquito Range zircons, indicating the likelihood of a relatively local source. These combined data suggest the possibility that all were produced within a continental-margin magmatic arc created as a result of southward-migrating (slab rollback?), north-dipping subduction to the south of the region. (3) Widespread Mesoproterozoic plutonism—with emplacement at various depths and exhibiting bimodal geochemistry—is recognized in 16 different samples. An older group of predominantly peraluminous, yet magnesian granitoids (e.g., granodiorite of Sayers, granite of Taylor River, and the St. Kevin Granite) were emplaced between ca. 1,450 and 1,425 Ma. These geochemical parameters suggest moderate degrees of partial melting in a low-pressure environment. Three younger metaluminous, but ferroan plutons (diorite of Grottos, diorite of Mount Elbert, and granodiorite of Mount Harvard), probably represent a final magmatic pulse at ca. 1,416 Ma. A comprehensive treatment of zircon REE and whole-rock trace-element behavior from Proterozoic rocks is scarce. Discriminant U/Yb versus Y diagrams using zircon data show that the Sawatch and Mosquito plutons are of continental origin, not oceanic. Additional bivariate diagrams incorporating cation ratio combinations of Gd, Ce, Yb, U, Th, Hf, and Eu offer refined insight into differences in fractionation trends and depth of magma generation for the various plutons. These interpretations, on the basis of zircon trace-element data, are mirrored in the whole-rock geochemistry data.

Colorado↗

Assessment of significant sand resources in Federal and California State Waters of the San Francisco, Oceanside, and Silver Strand littoral cell study areas along the continental shelf of California

Executive Summary The Sand Resources Project was established through collaborative agreements between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM), and the California Ocean Protection Council (OPC) with the purpose of evaluating sand and gravel resources in Federal and California State Waters for potential use in future beach-nourishment projects. Project partners worked in collaboration with California Coastal Sediment Management Workgroup (CSMW) members to define priority study areas for this work based on the potential for finding sand within the broader region and the needs for this sand as shown by beach erosion areas of concern in the adjacent littoral cells. The final study areas were defined to be (1) the San Francisco Littoral Cell, (2) the Oceanside Littoral Cell, and (3) the Silver Strand Littoral Cell. A two-stage approach was used to assess the study areas. The initial stage was a synthesis of the existing geophysical and sediment-sampling data in each area. This allowed for evaluations of the data availability, data gaps, and general patterns of sediment thickness and grain size. This synthesis was published in a separate USGS open-file report (Warrick and others, 2022). The findings from this assessment were used to refine study area boundaries and develop sampling plans for stage two of the project. Stage two of the project is the collection, processing, and synthesis of new data, including high-resolution geophysical surveys and sediment cores—this report addresses the second stage. The work focuses on two of the study areas—the San Francisco and the Oceanside Littoral Cells, where several research cruises have been conducted. A more limited, exploratory approach was used for the Silver Strand Littoral Cell, owing to the lack of existing high-resolution bathymetric data for this study area. The data collected provide new information about the three study areas, including sediment thickness, grain-size distributions, and total organic carbon. Sediment in all three study areas of the Sand Resources Study was suitable for beach nourishment, as reflected by their grain-size distributions and sediment thicknesses. For example, sandy sediment in the San Francisco Littoral Cell study area was on and immediately outside of the ebb-tidal bar of the San Francisco Bay, a landform that has a strong influence on grain-size patterns of the region. The presence of thick sediment deposits in this area was interpreted to be a function of tectonics, which has caused physical features that include a graben north of the Golden Gate whose deposits were thicker and siltier than the remaining area. Sandy sediment on the inner and outer parts of the continental shelf in the Oceanside Littoral Cell may be useful for nourishment, whereas the midshelf between these areas was dominated by silty sediment. Sediment in the Silver Strand Littoral Cell, which was only sampled selectively, had the greatest potential for beach nourishment because of the greater prevalence of beach-comparable grain sizes, especially in the more distal and deeper areas where medium sands were found. The Sand Resources Project did identify several sandy regions of the continental shelf that are deeper than dredging technologies currently (2022) available in the United States, which are generally limited to 30 meters (m) water depth or less. Although sandy sediment exists in all three study areas at water depths of 30 m or less, additional sediment supplies—most of which are in Federal Waters—are present in deeper settings, especially for the Oceanside and Silver Strand Littoral Cell study areas. Although the Silver Strand Littoral Cell study area was found to be considerably replete in sand resources, these conclusions are based on a limited sampling exercise across that study area. Thus, it may be beneficial to complete a more thorough characterization of the sediment resources in the Silver Strand Littoral Cell study area if it is determined that a need for sandy coastal sediment exists in this region. As a result of the Sand Resources Project, several areas of sand resources in Federal and California State Waters were found where they were previously unknown. As such, this project may provide important data for future coastal-management decisions in California, and it should provide a model for future investigations of sediment resources in other regions of the State.

California↗

1993 Annual Report: San Francisco estuary regional monitoring program for trace substances

This first annual report of the San Francisco Estuary Regional Monitoring Program contains the results of monitoring measurements made in 1993. Measurements of conventional water quality parameters and trace contaminant concentrations were made at 16 stations throughout the Estuary three times during the year: the wet period (March), during declining Delta outflow (May), and during the dry period (September). Water toxicity tests were conducted at 8 of those stations. Measurements of sediment quality and contaminant concentrations were made at the same 16 stations during the wet and dry sampling periods. Sediment toxicity was measured at 8 of those stations. Transplanted, bagged bivalve bioaccumulation and condition was measured at 11 stations during the wet and dry sampling periods. Water Monitoring. Total or near-total (dissolved + particulate, see text) arsenic, cadmium, selenium, and dissolved (0.45 &micro;m filtered) arsenic, cadmium, copper, nickel, silver, and zinc in water were highest in the South Bay. In general, dissolved metals in water were usually lowest in the Central Bay due to ocean influences. Near-total nickel and total mercury in water were highest in the northern estuary (San Pablo and Suisun Bays). Dissolved chromium and lead were highest at the Sacramento and San Joaquin River confluence stations. Six of the ten dissolved trace metals were highest in March during high runoff. Dissolved and total arsenic, selenium, and near-total cadmium were highest in September. Concentrations of trace organic contaminants are reported for the March sampling period. Total PAHs and PCBs were highest in the South Bay, but PCBs were also high in the Napa River. Dissolved PAHs were highest in the Central Bay, and dissolved PCBs were highest in the Napa River. Total and dissolved pesticides were highest in the Sacramento River and in the Extreme South Bay. Concentrations of trace elements in water (except selenium) were usually closely related with other environmental parameters. Total or near-total metals concentrations in water were most often associated with the amount of particulate material (TSS) in the water. Dissolved concentrations were usually associated with salinity or dissolved organic carbon (DOC) content. Dissolved PAHs were well correlated with TSS, but dissolved and total trace organic contaminants were poorly correlated with other water parameters. Based on deviations from conservative mixing of fresh and salt water, three different patterns of possible sources of metals were identified in 1993. For dissolved chromium and lead, rivers and local runoff appeared to be important sources. For dissolved arsenic, cadmium, copper, and nickel year-round inputs from the South Bay appeared to be important sources. Dissolved mercury, selenium, and zinc were associated with local runoff in the South Bay during the wet period. Dissolved silver did not fit any of these patterns. Although most contaminant concentrations were below water quality objectives, several trace contaminants were above the objectives at some stations. Comparisons to water quality objectives are used as a guide for evaluation of contaminant concentrations, but there are some differences in the way the RMP data are measured and that prescribed for regulatory purposes (see text). Concentrations of 5 metals in water were above EPA or Regional Basin Plan water quality objectives at six stations (see Table 30). Most of these elevated levels occurred at the northern estuary stations. Total PCB concentrations were above EPA human health objectives at all RMP stations. The pesticides chlordane, dieldrin, and DDTs were above the EPA objectives at several RMP stations, particularly at the northern-most, and river confluence stations. Although some of the contaminant concentrations were above water quality objectives, water toxicity tests (96 hour algal growth and 48 hour bivalve larval development tests) did not indicate toxicity (sometimes inconclusive) associated with the water samples collected at any of the RMP stations in 1993. Exposure to Bay San Francisco Estuary Regional Monitoring Program Regional Monitoring Program 1993 Report ii water actually enhanced algal growth at most stations. In addition to the Estuary-wide sampling, the Sacramento and San Joaquin Rivers were sampled upstream from their confluence. Stations in each river were sampled six times over a 6 week period of high flows. In the Sacramento River, seven of the ten dissolved metals measured had concentrations lower than those measured at the river confluence stations. Some metals concentrations in the San Joaquin River were higher, and some were lower than concentrations from the river confluence station. Metals concentrations in the Sacramento River were poorly related to river flow because the station at Rio Vista is under considerable tidal influence. In the San Joaquin River, flows were inversely related to 7 of 10 total metals concentrations. Sediment Monitoring. Concentrations of silver, mercury, and lead in sediment were highest in the South Bay. However, concentrations of most trace metals in sediments were highest in the northern estuary at stations with the finest (silt, clay) sediments. The northern estuary stations with the coarsest (sand, shell) sediments generally had the lowest metals concentrations. There were differences in concentrations of cadmium, lead, and selenium in sediments between the sampling periods, but no consistent trend as to which sampling period had higher values. In September, PAHs and PCBs in sediments were highest in the Central Bay, but pesticides in sediments were highest in the northern estuary and Extreme South Bay. NOAA&rsquo;s Median Effects Ranges (ERM) for sediments were used as a guide for evaluation of sediment contaminant concentrations. Nickel was the only trace contaminant in sediment above the ERM guidelines, and it was high at all RMP stations. These high levels are probably due to natural, geologic sources. Although sediment contaminant concentrations were below ERMs, sediment toxicity tests (10 day amphipod mortality, and 48 hour bivalve larval development in elutriates) indicated toxicity at all stations tested. Sediment factors that could have caused the toxicity were not investigated. Bivalve Bioaccumulation. Mussels, oysters, and freshwater clams were transplanted to the RMP stations to evaluate bioaccumulation of trace substances. Trace metals were bioaccumulated at nearly all RMP stations. However, arsenic, lead, and mercury did not appear to bioaccumulate. There was generally more bioaccumulation during the dry season than during the wet season. In September, PAHs, PCBs, and pesticides accumulated in all samples. Bioaccumulation of PAHs and pesticides was generally highest at the river confluence stations, and the Napa River. PCBs accumulated most at Redwood Creek. There were substantial differences in the degree of bioaccumulation among the species. Oysters appeared to accumulate higher concentrations of trace metals than the other species, especially copper, which may be a natural phenomenon. There are no established tissue contaminant standards for trace metal and organic contaminants. Therefore, comparisons to Median International Standards (MIS) for human consumption, or U.S. Food and Drug Administration (USFDA) action levels for trace organics are used to evaluate the bioaccumulation results. Concentrations of selenium were higher than MIS guidelines at all stations during the wet season. Other trace metal concentrations were higher than MIS guidelines at various stations during one or the other sampling period. However, none of the bivalves contained concentrations above the USFDA or National Academy of Sciences (NAS) guidelines for trace organic contaminants. The transplanted bivalves survived well at all stations except in the Napa River where less than 35% survived during both sampling seasons. Measures of bivalve condition (dry weight, shell volume) indicated that bivalves deployed in the Central Bay grew significantly, but those at most other stations actually lost weight. Whether these differences were due to natural causes such as salinity or food supply, or to contamination, was not determined. Pilot Studies. Two pilot monitoring studies were conducted in 1993. A pilot study of Estuary hydrography and phytoplankton was conducted by scientists from the U.S. Summary Geological Survey in Menlo Park and U.C. Davis. Water column profiles at up to 37 stations were monitored along a transect of the Estuary run monthly between the South Bay and the Delta. The primary objective of this study was to define physical (salinity, temperature, suspended particulate matter, and light penetration), chemical (dissolved oxygen) and biological (chlorophyll a) characteristics of Estuary water that may influence other chemical and biological reactions. A second objective was to investigate planktonic indicators of ecosystem structure and function. The data collected in 1993 showed the extent and duration of the spring phytoplankton bloom in the South Bay, other localized blooms in the northern estuary, the stratification and mixing associated with the entrapment zone in the northern estuary, and mixing in the Estuary resulting from the high rainfall in 1993. Knowledge of the duration and extent of these natural features of the Estuary provide context for interpretation of the RMP contaminant data collected only 3 times per year. Another pilot study of suspended sediment transport processes was conducted by the USGS in Sacramento. This study used continuous recording sensors at Point San Pablo and the Bay Bridge to measure the amount of suspended sediment in the water at mid-depth and near the bottom, as well as tide height. The objectives of this study were to estimate which factors determine suspended solids concentrations in the Central Bay and to collect time series of suspended solids that are appropriate for continuous monitoring of suspended solids and for calibration and validation of numerical models. The investigators determined that spring tides accounted for most of the variation in suspended solids concentrations at the stations monitored, not runoff from the Sacramento or San Joaquin Rivers, or semidiurnal and diurnal tides. Comparisons were also made between measurements made by the continuous recordings and the RMP samples collected during the regular monitoring cruises. The different ways of measuring TSS were generally comparable, however only 3 measurements per year as made by the RMP could not provide the information of TSS variation actually occurring in the Estuary. This information is important because as shown by the RMP data, total contaminant concentrations in Estuary water is largely dependent on the TSS in the water. This implies that the RMP measurements alone cannot determine accurately the range of contaminant concentrations without better characterizing the dynamics of TSS. The RMP Pilot Studies are important to the developing RMP because they will help put RMP measurements into the perspective of Estuary processes and mechanisms at other time scales. The studies can relate those processes to the RMP measurements and will facilitate revision of sampling design and interpretation. Summaries of other monitoring activities pertinent to regional monitoring are also included in the Report: a description of the Regional Board&rsquo;s Bay Protection Studies, the Sacramento Coordinated Monitoring Program, and a wetlands monitoring plan are included.

California↗

Geohydrology of the Cross-Florida Barge Canal area, with special reference to the Ocala vicinity

The Cross-Florida Barge Canal route commences at Palatka on the St. Johns River, about 75 miles upstream from the Atlantic Ocean, and extends 110 miles southwestward across Peninsular Florida into deep water in the Gulf of Mexico near Yankeetown. The canal will be equipped with five locks, each 600 feet long and 84 feet wide, and the channel will be a minimum of 12 feet deep and 150 feet wide. From near Ocala northeastward, the canal channel will replace much of the natural channel of the Oklawaha River, and will be excavated into beds of the so-called shallow sand aquifer of Miocene age and younger, which overlies limestone of the Floridan aquifer. Westward from Ocala, most of the canal will be excavated below the potentiometric surface into limestone and dolomite of the Floridan aquifer. Water levels of Rodman, Eureka, and Inglis Pools will be controlled by dams and spillways with the limited exchange of water between the pools and the aquifers. The water levels in the Summit Pools will fluctuate with the natural changes in the ground-water level of the Floridan aquifer, although the stage of the pool will be controlled partly by the stage held in the Eureka Pool. A dynamic inflow-outflow relationship will exist between the Summit Pool and the Floridan aquifer. The Floridan aquifer in the canal area is 1,000 to 1,200 feet thick and consists of limestone and dolomite of middle Eocene Miocene age, including from older to younger, the Lake City, Avon Park, and Ocala limestones plus permeable sandy, dolomitic limestone in the lower part of the Hawthorn Formation. It is possible that most of the flow to the two major springs in the area occurs in the upper 100 feet or so of the aquifer in the Ocala Limestone. The aquifer is underlain by the Oldsmar limestone of early Eocene age and is overlain by sand, clayey sand, clay and shell beds of Miocene through Holocene age, in thickness from a few feet to 300 feet. The permeable beds overlying the Floridan aquifer constitute the shallow aquifer, while the poorly permeable ones act as confining beds where the Floridan aquifer is under artesian conditions. A north-south line drawn separating the head of Silver Springs on the west from the Oklawaha River on the east marks the approximate western limit of a continuous blanket of materials of Miocene-Pliocene(?) age covering the rocks of the Floridan aquifer. East of the line, much of the aquifer is under artesian conditions, particularly in the Oklawaha River valley, although in some areas east of the valley, direct recharge through thick permeable Miocene-Pliocene(?) sands occurs. West of the line, only scattered remnants of a once continuous Miocene-Pliocene(?) cover remain. Lack of the cover is a result of erosion on the crest and flank of the Ocala Uplift, a broad northwest-southeast trending anticlinal upwarp, the axis of which is crossed by the canal route in the Dunnellon area. Over most of this area the Floridan aquifer is unconfined and receives direct recharge through a cover of a few tens of feet of sand and clayey sand of Quaternary age. Tensional stresses during the structural evolution of the Ocala Uplift produced an intersecting system of fractures and normal faults in rocks of the Floridan aquifer. The fractures and faults are important controls for orientation of solution channels and, therefore, for development of ground-water circulation patterns. When the system surface streams, which once drained the Barge Canal area, eroded the poorly permeable Miocene-Pliocene(?) cover from the flanks of the Ocala Uplift, surface runoff was reduced and precipitation began to directly infiltrate the underlying limestones. Now only principal streams remain, such as the Oklawaha and Withlacoochee Rivers and a few short tributaries, while one of the most highly developed subsurface drainage systems in the world has evolved in cavernous limestone of the Floridan aquifer. Two of the larger freshwater springs in the world now discharge from the Floridan aquifer in the canal area. Silver Springs near Ocala discharges an average 531 mgd (million gallons per day) down the 4-mile long Silver River, which flows on poorly permeable beds to the Oklawaha River. Rainbow Springs near Dunnellon discharges on average 468 mgd from numerous orifices in the bed of the 5-mile-long Rainbow River, which flows into the Withlacoochee River. The heads of the springs have migrated to their present positions partly because of a tendency of ground-water levels to decline as permeability in the aquifer is increased due to removal of limestone by solution, and because of mechanical erosion of the limestone in the vicinity of the spring heads. Also, points of principal spring discharges have shifted in the past due to changes in ground-water levels in response to changes in sea level. The subsurface drainage system is continuing to evolve today, as evidenced in part by frequent occurrence of new sinkholes and by the presence of significant amounts of calcium bicarbonate in the spring waters. Rodman Pool, at the east end of the canal, is separated from the Floridan aquifer by poorly permeable materials. The pool's operating water level will be only a few feet above the potentiometric surface at the downstream end, and at or slightly below the potentiometric surface at the upstream end. Little exchange of water between the Rodman Pool and the Floridan aquifer is expected. Eureka Pool, just upstream from Rodman Pool, will also be separated from the Floridan aquifer by poorly permeable beds. However, the stage of the pool will be about 15 feet higher than the natural potentiometric surface at the pool's downstream end, and some seepage into the Floridan aquifer is anticipated through faults and leaky parts of the poorly permeable beds, with a consequent rise in ground-water levels in areas adjacent to the lower end of the pool. Possibilities for particulate contamination of the aquifer will tend to be minimized because of the filtering capacity of the materials through which water must pass to reach the aquifer, although the natural filter will not preclude movement into the aquifer of contaminants which might become dissolved in the pool waters. No significant interchange of water between the pool and the aquifer is expected at the upstream end of the Eureka Pool. Present construction plans indicate an operating stage for Eureka Pool which will range between 38 and 40 feet above mean sea level, although it is possible to dredge the pool deep enough to permit a range in stage of 36 to 40 feet. A backwater effect extending up Silver River from the Eureka Pool is expected to regulate the stage at the head of Silver Springs between 39 and 44 feet above mean sea level if the pool ranges between 36 and 40 feet. If Eureka Pool ranges only between 38 and 40 feet, the range of stage at the head of the springs should be about 41 to 44 feet above mean sea level. From Inglis Lock west, the canal will have direct connection with the Gulf, and canal stage will fluctuate with the Gulf tide. Since the canal stage will be slightly lower than the adjacent ground-water levels along much of the reach, there will be some ground-water inflow to the canal. No significant changes in the existing ground-water regime are expected in the vicinity of Inglis Pool, the first step up in the canal east of the Gulf. Existing ground-water and surface-water levels in the area will not change appreciable, and the natural stage and flow of Rainbow Springs, which will flow by way of Rainbow River into Inglis Pool, should not be affected by canal operations. A possible adverse effect of the canal on the Inglis Pool area could result if sea water is locked up from the Gulf through Inglis Lock. However, the high step of 25 feet at the lock, flushing action of continuous flow from Inglis Pool to the lower reaches of the Withlacoochee River, and use of possible preventive locking procedures should minimize the problem. The potential for adverse effects on the ground-water regime is greatest in the area of the Summit Pool. Through most of the length of the pool, the canal channel will be excavated into limestone of the Floridan aquifer to depths of 12 to 27 feet below the potentiometric surface. Changes that will take place in the ground-water flow system in the Silver Springs drainage area, once the canal is completed, were estimated by flow-net analysis. Variation in aquifer transmissivity was determined by calculating transmissivity in 25 different flow cells surrounding Silver Springs. Transmissivity in the 25 cells averages about 15,600,000 gpd/ft [2,090,000 ft2/day (feet squared)], but transmissivity in the six cells through which the Summit Pool passes ranges from 9,000,000 to 44,000,000 gpd/ft (1,210,000 to 5,900,000 ft2/day). Transmissivity was used to compute static stage of the Summit Pool under given ground-water level conditions. Had the canal existed in May 1968 and had the stage of Eureka Pool been held at 36 feet at the time, the static stage in Summit Pool would have been about 42.1 feet above mean sea level. Thus, a conceptual model of the changes in the potentiometric surface wrought by the finished canal was drawn, and zones of ground-water inflow and outflow were delineated. Most outflow from the Summit Pool to the aquifer should be limited to one 4-mile-long zone along the north side of the pool, about 5 miles south of Silver Springs. It is estimated that a water volume equivalent to about 8 percent of the daily flow of Silver Springs will enter the Summit Pool each day from the southern one-third of the Silver Springs drainage area. A like amount will reenter the aquifer at the main zone of outflow and move toward Silver Springs at an estimated average velocity of about 200 feet per day, if something close to the natural static stage of the pool is maintained by return pumpage of the lockage losses. At a velocity of 200 feet per day, water from the Summit Pool would discharge at Silver Springs about 140 days later. However, any estimate of velocity in the highly cavernous limestone aquifer in the area should be used with caution, because difficult to measure changes in porosity and thickness of major zones of flow may cause large variations in velocity. If all lockage losses are returned to the Summit Pool by pumping from Eureka Pool, no net loss from the Silver Springs drainage area, except for some evaporation from the water surface in the canal and possible leakage around locks, will result from canal operations. The zone of outflow from the Summit Pool to the aquifer will be in a natural potentiometric trough, and the zone of inflow will be in a potentiometric ridge area. The equilibrium water level in the pool will tend to be about 1 foot higher than the altitude of the lowest level in the pre-canal potentiometric trough, and about 2 feet lower than the highest level on the pre-canal potentiometric ridge. West of the Silver Springs drainage area just east of Dunnellon Lock, in the area of a local potentiometric high, the water level in the Summit Pool is expected to be about 15 feet below the natural potentiometric surface. In most areas 2 to 3 miles away from the Summit Pool, effects of the canal on the natural potentiometric surface should be slight. The stage of the Summit Pool, judging from the 36-year record for ground-water level changes and the anticipated indirect effect of the controlled stage in Eureka Pool, should have a maximum of about 10.5 feet with a maximum water level of about 51.5 feet above mean sea level and a minimum of about 41.0 feet above mean sea level. Of particular importance in the Summit Pool is an implementation of well planned construction and operational procedures designed to minimize risks of ground-water contamination.

Florida↗