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Climate change and water quality influence on juvenile Atlantic sturgeon aggregation in the Altamaha River, Georgia

In the summer, juvenile Atlantic sturgeon ( Acipenser oxyrinchus oxyrinchus ) are vulnerable to extreme water quality conditions (i.e., temperature, dissolved oxygen [DO], and salinity) in the estuaries they inhabit. The effects of climate change on Atlantic sturgeon are largely unknown, but it may exacerbate these water quality issues. We used a 20-year dataset from the Altamaha River estuary, Georgia, USA to fit negative binomial mixed-effects models describing the relationship between water quality and catch per net hour of juvenile Atlantic sturgeon. Water temperature and DO were significant positive predictors of catch; salinity and sampling year were significant negative predictors. The interaction between temperature and DO was also significant. Water temperature, salinity, and year were significant in explaining variability in catch. Our modeling results suggest that response to water quality depends on fish age. Next, we used global climate projections to construct future climate scenarios incorporating warming water and increased salinity. By coupling these predictions with catch models, we forecast juvenile Atlantic sturgeon catch as a proxy for distribution. Water temperature increases of 1–5 °C led to predicted catch increases of 5–24%, although this result may be influenced by aggregation behavior or sampling limitations at high temperatures. Salinity increases of 1–2 ppt led to 9–17% decreases in catch, suggesting that saltwater intrusion may limit future Atlantic sturgeon estuarine habitat availability. Our study combines a long-term dataset with a robust statistical modeling approach to offer some of the first insights into future climate change effects on juvenile Atlantic sturgeon’s southern nursery habitats.

Georgia↗

The relative contribution of climate to changes in lesser prairie-chicken abundance

Managing for species using current weather patterns fails to incorporate the uncertainty associated with future climatic conditions; without incorporating potential changes in climate into conservation strategies, management and conservation efforts may fall short or waste valuable resources. Understanding the effects of climate change on species in the Great Plains of North America is especially important, as this region is projected to experience an increased magnitude of climate change. Of particular ecological and conservation interest is the lesser prairie-chicken ( Tympanuchus pallidicinctus ), which was listed as “threatened” under the U.S. Endangered Species Act in May 2014. We used Bayesian hierarchical models to quantify the effects of extreme climatic events (extreme values of the Palmer Drought Severity Index [PDSI]) relative to intermediate (changes in El Niño Southern Oscillation) and long-term climate variability (changes in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation) on trends in lesser prairie-chicken abundance from 1981 to 2014. Our results indicate that lesser prairie-chicken abundance on leks responded to environmental conditions of the year previous by positively responding to wet springs (high PDSI) and negatively to years with hot, dry summers (low PDSI), but had little response to variation in the El Niño Southern Oscillation and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Additionally, greater variation in abundance on leks was explained by variation in site relative to broad-scale climatic indices. Consequently, lesser prairie-chicken abundance on leks in Kansas is more strongly influenced by extreme drought events during summer than other climatic conditions, which may have negative consequences for the population as drought conditions intensify throughout the Great Plains.

Ecosphere↗

Dependence of the evolution of carbon dynamics in the northern permafrost region on the trajectory of climate change

We conducted a model-based assessment of changes in permafrost area and carbon storage for simulations driven by RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 projections between 2010 and 2299 for the northern permafrost region. All models simulating carbon represented soil with depth, a critical structural feature needed to represent the permafrost carbon–climate feedback, but that is not a universal feature of all climate models. Between 2010 and 2299, simulations indicated losses of permafrost between 3 and 5 million km 2 for the RCP4.5 climate and between 6 and 16 million km 2 for the RCP8.5 climate. For the RCP4.5 projection, cumulative change in soil carbon varied between 66-Pg C (10 15 -g carbon) loss to 70-Pg C gain. For the RCP8.5 projection, losses in soil carbon varied between 74 and 652 Pg C (mean loss, 341 Pg C). For the RCP4.5 projection, gains in vegetation carbon were largely responsible for the overall projected net gains in ecosystem carbon by 2299 (8- to 244-Pg C gains). In contrast, for the RCP8.5 projection, gains in vegetation carbon were not great enough to compensate for the losses of carbon projected by four of the five models; changes in ecosystem carbon ranged from a 641-Pg C loss to a 167-Pg C gain (mean, 208-Pg C loss). The models indicate that substantial net losses of ecosystem carbon would not occur until after 2100. This assessment suggests that effective mitigation efforts during the remainder of this century could attenuate the negative consequences of the permafrost carbon–climate feedback.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of↗

Behavioral responses of Pacific lamprey to alarm cues

Pacific lamprey ( Entosphenus tridentatus ), an anadromous ectoparasite, faces several challenges during adult migration to spawning grounds. Developing methods to address these challenges is critical to the success of ongoing conservation efforts. The challenges are diverse, and include anthropogenic alterations to the ecosystem resulting in loss of habitat, impassable barriers such as dams, climate change impacts, and altered predator fields. We conducted a behavioral study to understand how adult migrating Pacific lamprey respond to potential alarm cues: White Sturgeon ( Acipenser transmontanus ), human saliva, decayed Pacific lamprey, and river otter ( Lontra canadensis ). Research has shown that some species of lamprey can be guided to a location using odors and similar cues may be useful as a management tool for Pacific lamprey. Experiments were conducted over 2 nights and measured the number of entries (count) and duration of time spent (occupancy) by adult lamprey in each arm of a two-choice maze. During the first night, no odor was added to test for selection bias between arms. During the second night odor was added to one arm of the maze. Contrary to expectations, lamprey were significantly attracted to the river otter odor in both count and occupancy. No significant differences were found in the response of lamprey to the other three odors. Results from this study indicate that Pacific lamprey do respond to some odors; however, additional tests are necessary to better identify the types of odors and concentrations that elicit a repeatable response.

Oregon, Washington↗

The unseen iceberg: Plant roots in arctic tundra

Plant roots play a critical role in ecosystem function in arctic tundra, but root dynamics in these ecosystems are poorly understood. To address this knowledge gap, we synthesized available literature on tundra roots, including their distribution, dynamics and contribution to ecosystem carbon and nutrient fluxes, and highlighted key aspects of their representation in terrestrial biosphere models. Across all tundra ecosystems, belowground plant biomass exceeded aboveground biomass, with the exception of polar desert tundra. Roots were shallowly distributed in the thin layer of soil that thaws annually, and were often found in surface organic soil horizons. Root traits – including distribution, chemistry, anatomy and resource partitioning – play an important role in controlling plant species competition, and therefore ecosystem carbon and nutrient fluxes, under changing climatic conditions, but have only been quantified for a small fraction of tundra plants. Further, the annual production and mortality of fine roots are key components of ecosystem processes in tundra, but extant data are sparse. Tundra root traits and dynamics should be the focus of future research efforts. Better representation of the dynamics and characteristics of tundra roots will improve the utility of models for the evaluation of the responses of tundra ecosystems to changing environmental conditions.

New Phytologist↗

Multi-decadal vegetation transformations of a New Mexico ponderosa pine landscape after severe fires and aerial seeding

Wildfires and climate change are having transformative effects on vegetation composition and structure, and post-fire management may have long-lasting impacts on ecosystem reorganization. Post-fire aerial seeding treatments are commonly used to reduce runoff and soil erosion, but little is known about how seeding treatments affect native vegetation recovery over long periods of time, particularly in type-converted forests which have been dramatically transformed by the effects of repeated, high-severity fire. In this study, we analyze and report on a rare long-term (23-year) dataset that documents vegetation dynamics following a 1996 post-fire aerial seed treatment and subsequent 2011 high-severity reburn in a dry conifer forest of northern New Mexico in the southwestern United States. Repeated surveys between 1997 – 2019 of 49 permanent transects were used to test for differences in vegetation cover, richness, and diversity between seeded and unseeded areas, and to characterize the development of seeded and unseeded vegetation communities through time and across gradients of burn severity, elevation, and soil-available water capacity. Post-fire seeding led to a clear and sustained divergence in herbaceous community composition. Seeded plots had much higher cover of non-native graminoids, primarily Bromus inermis , a likely contaminant in the seed mix. High-severity reburning in all plots in 2011 reduced native graminoid cover by half at seeded plots compared to both pre-fire levels and to plots that were unseeded following the initial 1996 fire. In addition, increased fire severity was associated with increased non-native graminoid cover and reduced native graminoid cover, native species richness, and species diversity. This study documents a fire-driven ecosystem transformation from a former conifer forest into a shrub-grass system, reinforced by aerial seeding of grasses and high-severity reburning. This unique long-term dataset illustrates that post-fire seeding carries significant risk of unwanted non-native species invasions that persist through subsequent fires – indicating that alternative post-fire management actions merit consideration to better support native ecosystem resilience in the face of emergent climate change and increasing disturbance. Lastly, this study highlights the importance of long-term monitoring of post-fire vegetation dynamics, as short-term assessments will miss key elements of the full complexity of ecosystem responses to fire and post-fire management actions.

New Mexico↗

Timescales of water-quality change in a karst aquifer, south-central Texas

Understanding the drivers and timescales over which groundwater quality changes informs groundwater management, use, and protection. To better understand timescales of water-quality change over short (daily to monthly) and long (seasonal to decadal) timescales, the U.S. Geological Survey’s National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) Enhanced Trends Network (ETN) program instrumented and sampled three wells in the Edwards aquifer in south-central Texas. The wells were instrumented to provide high-frequency continuous (subhourly) water-quality data (temperature, pH, specific conductance, and dissolved oxygen), which were augmented by the collection of discrete samples (about 6 per year) for a range of geochemical constituents (including selected isotopes and age tracers). ETN data (2013–2017) are considered with data from additional sites for the same time period, and also historical records (over more than 80 years) of climatic and hydrologic conditions. During the four-year study, hydrologic conditions transitioned from very dry to very wet. Sites in the updip/unconfined part of the aquifer showed notable changes in water level and geochemistry (1) in response to rainfall/recharge events, and (2) over the multiyear dry/wet cycle. Sites in the downdip/confined part of the aquifer showed changes in water level/spring discharge over similar timescales, although the response is more muted. Geochemistry at the downdip/confined sites, however, varied slowly and minimally, indicating that the geochemical response of the deeper aquifer is decoupled from recent hydrologic responses. Changes at the updip/unconfined sites reflect mixing with recent recharge, whereas the downdip/confined sites were dominated by mineral-solution reactions resulting from longer (decadal) residence times. Mean groundwater ages interpreted from measured age tracers and lumped parameter models range from 7 to >700 years (where mixed with premodern downdip water) but were mostly modern. The aquifer is characterized by updip-to-downdip trends in geochemistry with respect to water-rock interaction and groundwater age. Fourier spectral analysis of historical records indicate hydrologic variability has occurred at dominant periods of 30 and 15 years; in conjunction with age tracers, these results provide insight into timescales at which the aquifer’s public supply is vulnerable to changes in the water quality of recharge.

Texas↗

A preliminary investigation of siliceous microfossil succession in late quaternary sediments from Lake Baikal, Siberia

Siliceous microfossil assemblage succession was analyzed in a 100 m sediment core from Lake Baikal, Siberia. The core was recovered from the lake's central basin at a water depth of 365 m. Microfossil abundance varied greatly within the intervals sampled, ranging from samples devoid of siliceous microfossils to samples with up to 3.49 x 10 11 microfossils g -1 sediment. Fluctuations in abundance appear to reflect trends in the marine δ 18 O record, with peak microfossil levels generally representing climate optima. Microfossil taxa present in sampled intervals changed considerably with core depth. Within each sample a small number of endemic diatom species dominated the assemblage. Changes in dominant endemic taxa between sampled intervals ranged from extirpation of some taxa, to shifts in quantitative abundance. Differences in microfossil composition and the association of variations in abundance with climate fluctuations suggest rapid speciation in response to major climatic excursions.

Journal of Paleolimnology↗

Climate change winners: receding ice fields facilitate colony expansion and altered dynamics in an Adélie penguin metapopulation

There will be winners and losers as climate change alters the habitats of polar organisms. For an Adélie penguin (Pygoscelis adeliae) colony on Beaufort Island (Beaufort), part of a cluster of colonies in the southern Ross Sea, we report a recent population increase in response to increased nesting habitat as glaciers have receded. Emigration rates of birds banded as chicks on Beaufort to colonies on nearby Ross Island decreased after 2005 as available habitat on Beaufort increased, leading to altered dynamics of the metapopulation. Using aerial photography beginning in 1958 and modern satellite imagery, we measured change in area of available nesting habitat and population size of the Beaufort colony. Population size varied with available habitat, and both increased rapidly since the 1990s. In accord with glacial retreat, summer temperatures at nearby McMurdo Station increased by ~0.50°C per decade since the mid-1980s. Although the Ross Sea is likely to be the last ocean with an intact ecosystem, the recent retreat of ice fields at Beaufort that resulted in increased breeding habitat exemplifies a process that has been underway in the Ross Sea during the entire Holocene. Furthermore, our results are in line with predictions that major ice shelves and glaciers will retreat rapidly elsewhere in the Antarctic, potentially leading to increased breeding habitat for Adélie penguins. Results further indicated that satellite imagery may be used to estimate large changes in Adélie penguin populations, facilitating our understanding of metapopulation dynamics and environmental factors that influence regional populations.

PLoS ONE↗

Southeastern Utah Federal lands science needs survey

Evidence-based scientific information can help support defensible decision making in the management of public lands. This report sought to identify current (2024–25) Federal agency research needs in southeastern Utah and to synthesize common management challenges and questions across jurisdictional boundaries. We implemented a science needs assessment focused on lands managed by the Bureau of Land Management (BLM), U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service (FS), and National Park Service (NPS) in southeastern Utah—the area delineated by BLM’s Canyon Country District Office, portions of the FS Manti-La Sal National Forest, and Southeast Utah Group NPS units. U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) researchers met with and surveyed BLM, NPS, and FS staff in 2024 and 2025 to understand their science needs and preferred modes of information delivery. The USGS’s approach may be unrepresentative in terms of which topic areas were addressed, but the responses nevertheless highlight challenges and high-priority research areas that could contribute positively to agency decision making. Common management challenges and areas where additional research could be beneficial to land managers include the effects of climate change, recreation effects and visitor behavior, hydrology and hydrologic changes due to anthropogenic pressures, and the capacity for inventory and monitoring across essentially all resource types. Research on site-specific restoration techniques and their outcomes was also a common theme. In this report we discuss ways in which researchers can increase the extent to which their work could be actionable for resource managers and provide suggestions for potential priority research areas for the study region.

Utah↗

Monitoring Hawaiian biodiversity: Pilot study to assess changes to forest birds and their habitat

Biological diversity, or biodiversity, is the variety and abundance of species in a defined area, and is one of the oldest and most basic descriptions of biological communities. Understanding how populations and communities are structured and change over space and time in response to internal and external forces is a management priority. Effective management practices and conservation strategies depend on our understanding of the relationship between changes in biodiversity and ecological drivers such as invasive species, land use and climate change. To demonstrate how changes in biodiversity may be monitored over a large (400 km2) tract of native forest habitat, we compared bird and plant community composition and structure in an upper montane region of Hawai‘i Island originally surveyed in 1977 as part of the Hawai‘i Forest Bird Survey (Scott et al. 1986) with a comprehensive sample of the same region in 2015. Our findings suggest that across a region spanning an elevation range of 600 to 2,000 m considerable changes occurred in the plant and bird communities between 1977 and 2015. Endemic and indigenous plants species richness (i.e., total number of species) decreased dramatically in the low and middle elevations below an invasive weed front, whereas naturalized plant species richness did not change between the two periods at any elevation. Endemic bird abundance decreased and two species were lost in the lower elevations (< 1,100 m) between 1977 and 2015, while naturalized bird abundance and the numbers of species increased in the same area. In addition to changes in community composition, the structure of the forest showed evidence of changes in dominant and sub-dominant tree canopy cover, shrub and herbaceous cover, dominant tree canopy height, and matted fern cover. Biodiversity monitoring helps to define specific conservation targets and to measure progress towards reaching those targets. It is difficult to ascribe causative factors to a change in biodiversity without directly manipulating the environment. Forest habitat in a variety of settings (i.e., islands and regions with differing land-use histories and elevation ranges), however, can provide opportunities to evaluate the influence of ecological drivers. Declines in native bird biodiversity in low-elevation areas may be attributed to invasive species as land use and climate conditions have remained relatively similar over the 40-year period. Thus, the shift from an endemic-naturalized co-dominated community in 1977 to one dominated by naturalized, alien birds in 2015, and reduction in native bird abundance over that period, may reflect increasing dominance by naturalized plants within this forested area. Inferences drawn from analyses of region-wide surveys, especially with replicate datasets, will facilitate the identification of broad-scale changes in biodiversity, and provide a needed current datum in Hawaiian plant and bird biodiversity monitoring.

Hawaii↗

Hydroclimatic conditions, wildfire, and species assemblages influence co-occurrence of bull trout and tailed frogs in northern Rocky Mountain streams

Although bull trout ( Salvelinus confluentus ) and tailed frogs ( Ascaphus montanus ) have co-existed in forested Pacific Northwest streams for millennia, these iconic cold-water specialists are experiencing rapid environmental change caused by a warming climate and enhanced wildfire activity. Our goal was to inform future conservation by examining the habitat associations of each species and conditions that facilitate co-occupancy. We repurposed data from previous studies in the northern Rocky Mountains to assess the efficacy of bull trout electrofishing surveys for determining the occurrence of tailed frogs and the predictive capacity of habitat covariates derived from in-stream measurements and geospatial sources to model distributions of both species. Electrofishing reliably detected frog presence (89.2% rate). Both species were strongly associated with stream temperature and flow regime characteristics, and less responsive to riparian canopy cover, slope, and other salmonids. Tailed frogs were also sensitive to wildfire, with occupancy probability peaking around 80 years after a fire. Co-occupancy was most probable in locations with low-to-moderate frequencies of high winter flow events, few other salmonids, a low base-flow index, and intermediate years since fire. The distributions of these species appear to be sensitive to environmental conditions that are changing this century in forests of the northern Rocky Mountains. The amplification of climate-driven effects after wildfire may prove to be particularly problematic in the future. Habitat differences between these two species, considered to be headwater specialists, suggest that conservation measures designed for one may not fully protect the other. Additional studies involving future climate and wildfire scenarios are needed to assess broader conservation strategies and the potential to identify refuge streams where both species are likely to persist, or complementary streams where each could exist separately into the future.

Idaho, Montana↗

Compound flood model for the lower Nooksack River and delta, western Washington—Assessment of vulnerability and nature-based adaptation opportunities to mitigate higher sea level and stream flooding

Higher sea level and stream runoff associated with climate change is expected to lead to greater lowland flooding across the Pacific Northwest. Increases in stream runoff that range from 20 to 32 percent by the 2040s and from 52 to 72 percent by the 2080s is expected to steadily increase flood risk. Flood risk is also expected to increase in response to the landward shift in high tides and storm surge, which will retard downstream conveyance. The combination of higher stream runoff, which is expected to drive greater fluvial sediment delivery to the coast, and more frequent, higher coastal waters relative to present-day (2023) levels, which will retard streamflow, is projected to cause more sedimentation across coastal and estuarine systems, exacerbating the flood risk. In the Nooksack River delta of western Washington, as in many Puget Sound deltas, resilient adaptation planning to mitigate impacts to community assets and infrastructure, nationally essential agricultural areas, and valued habitats and restoration investments that support endangered and threatened salmon recovery are underway but are in need of more informed projections of compound flood hazards. A Delft3D Flexible Mesh hydrodynamic model was constructed and used to assess changes in the extent, frequency, and timing of flood exposure associated with higher sea level and stream runoff projected to occur in the 2040s and 2080s. The model was also used to evaluate the change in and potential mitigating effects to flood exposure associated with individual and cumulative salmon-habitat-restoration strategies. Model simulations also evaluated the sensitivity of sedimentation to the individual and cumulative effects of higher fluvial delivery, trapping by sea-level rise, and changes in hydrodynamics associated with the rerouting of flows by proposed restoration strategies. The model performed well, having mean absolute errors for water levels below 1 foot (0.3 meters) when tested during a 2-year period for two recent flood events of record, the February 2, 2020, “Super Bowl flood” and the January 8, 2009, stream flood, both of which caused substantial flooding and damage across the study area. Fluvial discharge was found to dominate flood hazard at higher elevations in the study area, whereas near the coast, sea-level rise is computed to turn a less extreme 2-year (50 percent annual exceedance probability [AEP]) bankfull streamflow, which, at present (2023), causes nuisance flooding, into a more extreme 5-year (20 percent AEP) and 10 percent AEP stream-flood event by the 2050s and 2100, respectively. The February 2020 Super Bowl flood was calculated to be a 10-year or 10 percent AEP peak-flow event, and the January 2009 flood was calculated to be a 25-year (4 percent AEP) peak-flow event. Extreme events such as the February 2020 Super Bowl flood and the January 2009 flood caused extensive damage across the Nooksack River floodplain, and model computations predict these magnitudes of events would have notably greater effect in the 2040s and 2080s in response to higher projected sea level and stream runoff. The modeled January 2009 flood is predicted to transform into a flood event, causing flood exposure that is comparable to the 100-year or 1 percent AEP flood by the 2040s. The modeled January 2009 flood is also predicted to exceed the flood exposure of the recent November 16, 2021, flood, which caused substantial damage in the lower Nooksack River floodplain and restricted access for emergency-management efforts on important arterial roadways in the area; the measured peak discharge during the November 16, 2021, flood exceeded that of the January 2009 flood. Two of several identified alternative strategies that reroute floodwaters to restore salmon habitat were projected to reduce exposure to the increasingly impactful 10 and 4 percent AEP stream-flood events through the 2080s. The effects of the suggested alternatives, however, were found to reduce flow velocities, promote additional sedimentation, and reduce flow conveyance in the main-stem Nooksack River, a concern to flood-management efforts, navigation, and fishing. The model also suggests that main-stem channel sedimentation is likely, given projected climate change. Higher stream runoff that increases fluvial-sediment delivery and higher sea levels that retard downstream flow are expected to lead to greater sedimentation. Lastly, the model was used to assess the sensitivity of flood exposure to the individual and cumulative effects of climate changes, alternative strategies, and sedimentation, including recently observed decadal-scale aggradation patterns. These results indicate that sediment is likely to continue to be a challenge to flood-management efforts and that nature-based alternatives that benefit ecosystem restoration may also mitigate flood exposure for several decades.

Washington↗

Coupling alongshore variations in wave energy to beach morphologic change using the SWAN wave model at Ocean Beach, San Francisco, CA

Coastal managers have faced increasing pressure to manage their resources wisely over the last century as a result of heightened development and changing environmental forcing. It is crucial to understand seasonal changes in beach volume and shape in order to identify areas vulnerable to accelerated erosion. Shepard (1950) was among the first to quantify seasonal beach cycles. Sonu and Van Beek (1971) and Wright et al. (1985) described commonly occurring beach states. Most studies utilize widest spaced 2-D cross shore profiles or shorelines extracted from aerial photographs (e.g. Winant et al. 1975; Aubrey, 1979, Aubrey and Ross, 1985; Larson and Kraus, 1994; Jimenez et al., 1977; Lacey and Peck, 1998; Guillen et al., 1999; Norcorss et al., 2002) to analyzed systematic changes in beach evolution. But with the exception of established field stations, such as Duck, NC (Birkemeier and Mason, 1984), ans Hazaki Oceanographical Research Station (HORS) in Japan (Katoh, 1997), there are very few beach change data sets with high temporal and spatial resolutions (e.g. Dail et al., 2000; Ruggiero et al., 2005; Yates et al., in press). Comprehensive sets of nearshore morphological data and local in situ measurements outside of these field stations are very rare and virtually non-existent high-energy coasts. Studied that have attempted to relate wave statistics to beach morphology change require some knowledge of the nearshore wave climate, and have had limited success using offshore measurement (Sonu and Van Beek, 1971; Dail et al., 2000). The primary objective of this study is to qualitatively compare spatially variable nearshore wave predictions to beach change measurements in order to understand the processes responsible for a persistent erosion 'hotspot' at Ocean Beach, San Francisco, CA. Local wave measurements are used to calibrate and validate a wave model that provides nearshore wave prediction along the beach. The model is run for thousands of binned offshore wave conditions to help isolate the effects of offshore wave direction and period on nearshore wave predictions. Alongshore varying average beach change statistics are computed at specific profile locations from topographic beach surveys and lidar data. The study area is located in the San Francisco Bight in central California. Ocean Beach is a seven kilometer long north-south trending sandy coastline located just south of the entrance to the San Francisco Bay Estuary (Figure 1). It contains an erosion hotspot in the southern part of the beach which has resulted in damage to local infrastructure and is the cause of continued concern. A wide range of field data collection and numerical modeling efforts have been focused here as part of the United States Geological Survey's (USGS) San Francisco Bight Coastal Processes Study, which began in October 2003 and represents the first comprehensive study of coastal processes at the mouth of San Francisco Bay. Ocean Beach is exposed to very strong tidal flows, with measured currents often in excess of 1 m/s at the north end of the beach. Current profiler measurements indicate that current magnitudes are greater in the northern portion of the beach, while wave energy is greater in the southern portion where erosion problems are greatest (Barnard et al., 2007). The sub-aerial beach volume fluctuates seasonally over a maximum envelope of 400,000 m 3 for the seven kilometer stretch (Barnard et al, 2007). The wave climate in the region is dominated by an abundance of low frequency energy (greater than 20 s period) and prevailing northwest incident wave angles. The application of a wave model to the region is further complicated by the presence of the Farallon Islands 40 kilometers west, and a massive ebb tidal delta at the mouth of San Francisco Bay (~150 km 2 ), which creates complicated refraction patterns as wave energy moves from offshore Ocean Beach; however the cost and threat of the energetic nearshore environment have limited the temporal and spatial resolution of these measurements. Applying numerical models to predict wave and current patterns along the beach can help supplement the filed data that exists and provide opportunities to make prediction about the impacts of changing environmental forcing.

California↗

Geographic variation and thermal plasticity shape salamander metabolic rates under current and future climates

Predicted changes in global temperature are expected to increase extinction risk for ectotherms, primarily through increased metabolic rates. Higher metabolic rates generate increased maintenance energy costs which are a major component of energy budgets. Organisms often employ plastic or evolutionary (e.g., local adaptation) mechanisms to optimize metabolic rate with respect to their environment. We examined relationships between temperature and standard metabolic rate across four populations of a widespread amphibian species to determine if populations vary in metabolic response and if their metabolic rates are plastic to seasonal thermal cues. Populations from warmer climates lowered metabolic rates when acclimating to summer temperatures as compared to spring temperatures. This may act as an energy saving mechanism during the warmest time of the year. No such plasticity was evident in populations from cooler climates. Both juvenile and adult salamanders exhibited metabolic plasticity. Although some populations responded to historic climate thermal cues, no populations showed plastic metabolic rate responses to future climate temperatures, indicating there are constraints on plastic responses. We postulate that impacts of warming will likely impact the energy budgets of salamanders, potentially affecting key demographic rates, such as individual growth and investment in reproduction.

Ecology and Evolution↗

Palaeodata-informed modelling of large carbon losses from recent burning of boreal forests

Wildfires play a key role in the boreal forest carbon cycle 1 , 2 , and models suggest that accelerated burning will increase boreal C emissions in the coming century 3 . However, these predictions may be compromised because brief observational records provide limited constraints to model initial conditions 4 . We confronted this limitation by using palaeoenvironmental data to drive simulations of long-term C dynamics in the Alaskan boreal forest. Results show that fire was the dominant control on C cycling over the past millennium, with changes in fire frequency accounting for 84% of C stock variability. A recent rise in fire frequency inferred from the palaeorecord 5 led to simulated C losses of 1.4 &thinsp; kg &thinsp; C &thinsp; m &minus;2 (12% of ecosystem C stocks) from 1950 to 2006. In stark contrast, a small net C sink of 0.3 &thinsp; kg &thinsp; C &thinsp; m &minus;2 occurred if the past fire regime was assumed to be similar to the modern regime, as is common in models of C dynamics. Although boreal fire regimes are heterogeneous, recent trends 6 and future projections 7 point to increasing fire activity in response to climate warming throughout the biome. Thus, predictions 8 that terrestrial C sinks of northern high latitudes will mitigate rising atmospheric CO 2 may be over-optimistic.

Nature Climate Change↗

A global threats overview for Numeniini populations: synthesising expert knowledge for a group of declining migratory birds.

The Numeniini is a tribe of 13 wader species (Scolopacidae, Charadriiformes) of which seven are Near Threatened or globally threatened, including two Critically Endangered. To help inform conservation management and policy responses, we present the results of an expert assessment of the threats that members of this taxonomic group face across migratory flyways. Most threats are increasing in intensity, particularly in non-breeding areas, where habitat loss resulting from residential and commercial development, aquaculture, mining, transport, disturbance, problematic invasive species, pollution and climate change were regarded as having the greatest detrimental impact. Fewer threats (mining, disturbance, problematic native species and climate change) were identified as widely affecting breeding areas. Numeniini populations face the greatest number of non-breeding threats in the East Asian-Australasian Flyway, especially those associated with coastal reclamation; related threats were also identified across the Central and Atlantic Americas, and East Atlantic flyways. Threats on the breeding grounds were greatest in Central and Atlantic Americas, East Atlantic and West Asian flyways. Three priority actions were associated with monitoring and research: to monitor breeding population trends (which for species breeding in remote areas may best be achieved through surveys at key non-breeding sites), to deploy tracking technologies to identify migratory connectivity, and to monitor land-cover change across breeding and non-breeding areas. Two priority actions were focused on conservation and policy responses: to identify and effectively protect key non-breeding sites across all flyways (particularly in the East Asian- Australasian Flyway), and to implement successful conservation interventions at a sufficient scale across human-dominated landscapes for species' recovery to be achieved. If implemented urgently, these measures in combination have the potential to alter the current population declines of many Numeniini species and provide a template for the conservation of other groups of threatened species.

Bird Conservation International↗

Ecological effects of pinyon-juniper removal in the Western United States—A synthesis of scientific research, January 2014–March 2021

Executive Summary Increasing density of pinyon ( Pinus spp. ) and juniper ( Juniperus spp. ) woodlands (hereinafter “pinyon-juniper”), as well as expansion of these woodlands into adjacent shrublands and grasslands, has altered ecosystem function and wildlife habitat across large areas of the interior western United States. Although there are many natural and human-caused drivers of woodland infilling and expansion, restoration of sagebrush ( Artemisia spp. ) habitat through removal of pinyon-juniper is considered an urgent management objective in many locations, particularly in support of sagebrush-dependent wildlife species of conservation concern. In December 2020, the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) established the Pinyon-Juniper Management Categorical Exclusion (PJCX) to expedite the regulatory process for pinyon-juniper removal projects on public lands, largely intended to benefit mule deer ( Odocoileus hemionus ) and greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ) habitats. During final preparation of this report, the BLM discontinued use of the PJCX (as of November, 2022), but the pinyon-juniper tree removal techniques assessed in this report are commonly used and understanding their effects remains relevant to land use planning. To address areas of uncertainty relative to potential ecological effects of the PJCX, we conducted a review of the peer-reviewed science literature to better understand the likely responses of vegetation, environmental (for example, soils), and wildlife variables to specific tree removal techniques permitted by the PJCX. In brief, the PJCX permitted removal of trees by either manual cutting, mechanical cutting, or mastication; allowed certain methods to redistribute or remove resulting tree biomass after treatment; and prohibited broadcast burning, roadbuilding, removal of old-growth, and seeding of non-native species. Specifically, we conducted our review to address the following questions: How will PJCX removal techniques affect plant communities, soils, and abiotic resources? How do these pinyon-juniper removal techniques affect wildlife communities, including both woodland- and sagebrush-dependent species? What are the potential ecological implications of different pinyon-juniper removal treatment types and implementation strategies (for example, treatment sizes) over time? What are the most important gaps in our scientific understanding of how treatments might affect targeted ecosystems over space and time (for example, potential effects of climate change)? To answer these questions, we considered studies related to pinyon-juniper ecosystems, focusing on research that occurred over a large portion of the interior western United States that is the primary focus of the PJCX. We also focused on papers published from 2014 onward, to avoid excessive overlap with other recent reviews on pinyon-juniper management effects. Using strict criteria, including only considering research that tested responses for statistical significance, we identified 48 papers that primarily examined treatment effects on vegetation and other environmental variables (1,709 responses), and 11 papers that addressed effects on wildlife (132 responses). Responses to the PJCX-permitted treatments were summarized as either positive (that is, a significant increase), negative (that is, a significant decrease), or non-significant (that is, no significant difference). Responses were assigned to categories (for example, Native Annual Grass/Forb Abundance) and hierarchical treatment levels. We found that there were large proportions of non-significant responses among all categories combined, with roughly half or more of all responses non-significant (48 percent for wildlife, 60 percent for vegetation-environmental), comparable to other recent systematic reviews of pinyon-juniper treatment effects. However, we also found that when there were significant responses, some important trends potentially emerged. Important undesirable outcomes included far more positive than negative responses of exotic grass and forb abundance among nearly all treatment types. Cutting treatments were also more likely to decrease biocrust cover and microbial activity. Potentially beneficial outcomes included mostly positive responses among sagebrush obligate species, including more positive than negative responses for mule deer and sage-grouse. Some treatment types (for example, mastication) also resulted in more positive than negative responses for native grasses and forbs (although, non-significant responses were the majority). We also highlighted many limitations of this review, including how responses often come from few studies, and how some response-treatment category combinations lack adequate response data. Moreover, the existing research is often insufficient to address many key questions about treatment effects, largely owing to short time-scales and limited spatial extents of observations, which do not match the size of treatments being implemented by land managers, nor capture long-term, post-treatment ecological dynamics. We also identify a lack of research that addresses key interactions that could undermine restoration objectives, including potential effects of climate change and grazing on post-treatment environments. Thus, we emphasize the importance of integrating these factors into future pinyon-juniper treatment research, and we stress the need for use of monitoring programs and research studies that partake in data collection and analysis over long durations and broad spatial scales.

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