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USGS2020

Framework for a long-term strategic plan for the Capital Area Groundwater Conservation Commission

The Capital Area Groundwater Conservation Commission oversees the use of groundwater in six parishes in Louisiana. In carrying out its statutory responsibilities and authorities, the Commission recognizes the complexity of its decisions: the long-term objectives it is seeking are multifaceted; the actions it can choose from are numerous and interdependent; and the understanding of the hydrogeological, economic, and social systems affected by its actions is limited. To navigate this complexity, the Commission is developing a long-term strategic plan to guide its activities and to serve as a primary mode of communication to stakeholders and the public. The long-term strategic plan is intended to consider actions and outcomes over at least the next 50 years within the 6 parishes in the Commission’s jurisdiction and related to all the confined aquifers in the 3000 feet below the district. The primary purposes of the plan are to promote long-term sustainability of groundwater extraction, continuity of operations of the Commission, long-term planning by water users, and clear communication with the public. The plan will describe specific management actions to be taken over time by the Commission, and the conditions under which those actions are to be taken. It will include intermediate milestones the Commission intends to achieve on the way toward achieving its long-term objectives. The actions under consideration include regulation and monitoring of groundwater withdrawal, mitigation of the environmental effects of withdrawal, support of relevant scientific studies, as well as work with partner agencies to implement measures to conserve, develop, and supplement groundwater resources. The plan will have greater detail about short-term actions than mid-term and long-term actions, and the Commission anticipates updating the plan periodically to adapt to changing circumstances and knowledge. To develop its long-term strategic plan, the Commission is working with The Water Institute of the Gulf and the U.S. Geological Survey using a facilitated process based on the principles of structured decision making (Gregory et al., 2012). This document outlines the framework for the strategic plan by describing the legal, economic, and scientific context for the plan, the fundamental objectives the Commission seeks to achieve in the long term, and the strategic alternatives it is considering.

Report↗

USGS1996

Differentiating climatic and successional influences on long-term development of a marsh

Comparison of long—term records of local wetland vegetation dynamics with regional, climate—forced terrestrial vegetation changes can be used to differentiate the rates and effects of autogenic successional processes and allogenic environmental change on wetland vegetation dynamics. We studied Holocene plant macrofossil and pollen sequences from Portage Marsh, a shallow, 18—ha marsh in northeastern Indiana. Between 10 000 and 5700 yr BP the basin was occupied by a shallow, open lake, while upland vegetation consisted of mesic forests of Pinus, Quercus, Ulmus, and Carya. At 5700 yr BP the open lake was replaced rapidly by a shallow marsh, while simultaneously Quercus savanna developed on the surrounding uplands. The marsh was characterized by periodic drawdowns, and the uplands by periodic fires. Species composition of the marsh underwent further changes between 3000 and 2000 yr BP. Upland pollen spectra at Portage Marsh and other sites in the region shifted towards more mesic vegetation during that period. The consistency and temporal correspondence between the changes in upland vegetation and marsh vegetation indicate that the major vegetational changes in the marsh during the Holocene resulted from hydrologic changes forced by regional climate change. Progressive shallowing of the basin by autogenic accumulation of organic sediment constrained vegetational responses to climate change but did not serve as the direct mechanism of change.

Ecology↗

USGS2020

Testing ecosystem accounting in the United States: A case study for the Southeast

Ecosystem accounts, as formalized by the System of Environmental-Economic Accounting Experimental Ecosystem Accounts (SEEA EEA), have been compiled in a number of countries, yet there have been few attempts to develop them for the U.S. We explore the potential for U.S. ecosystem accounting by compiling ecosystem extent, condition, and ecosystem services supply and use accounts for a ten-state region in the Southeast. The pilot accounts address air quality, water quality, biodiversity, carbon storage, recreation, and pollination for selected years from 2001 to 2015. Results illustrate how information from ecosystem accounts can contribute to policy and decision-making. Using an example from Atlanta, we also show how ecosystem accounts can be considered alongside other SEEA accounts to give a more complete picture of a local area’s environmental-economic trends. The process by which we determined where to place metrics within the accounting framework, which was strongly informed by the National Ecosystem Services Classification System (NESCS), can provide guidance for future ecosystem accounts in the U.S. and other countries. Finally, we identify knowledge gaps that limit the inclusion of certain ecosystem services in the accounts and suggest future research that can close these gaps and improve future U.S. ecosystem accounts.

Missouri, Arkansas, Louisiana, Tennessee, Mississi↗

USGS1998

A Review of Semivolatile and Volatile Organic Compounds in Highway Runoff and Urban Stormwater

Many studies have been conducted since 1970 to characterize concentrations of semivolatile organic compounds (SVOCs) in highway runoff and urban stormwater. To a lesser extent, studies also have characterized concentrations of volatile organic compounds (VOCs), estimated loads of SVOCs, and assessed potential impacts of these contaminants on receiving streams. This review evaluates the quality of existing data on SVOCs and VOCs in highway runoff and urban storm- water and summarizes significant findings. Studies related to highways are emphasized when possible. The review included 44 articles and reports that focused primarily on SVOCs and VOCs. Only 17 of these publications are related to highways, and 5 of these 17 are themselves review papers. SVOCs in urban stormwater and sediments during the late 1970's to mid-1980's were the subject of most studies. Criteria used to evaluate data quality included documentation of sampling protocols, analytical methods, minimum reporting limit (MRL) or method detection limit (MDL), qualityassurance protocols, and quality-control samples. The largest deficiency in documenting data quality was that only 10 percent of the studies described where water samples were collected in the stream cross section. About 80 percent of SVOCs in runoff are in the suspended solids. Because suspended solids can vary significantly even in narrow channels, concentrations from discrete point samples and contaminant loads estimated from those samples are questionable without information on sample location or how well streamflow was mixed. Thirty percent or fewer of the studies documented the MRL, MDL, cleaning of samplers, or use of field quality-control samples. Comparing results of different studies and evaluating the quality of environmental data, especially for samples with low concentrations, is difficult without this information. The most significant factor affecting SVOC concentrations in water is suspended solids concentration. In sediment, the most significant factors affecting SVOC concentrations are organic carbon content and distance from sources such as highways and power plants. Petroleum hydrocarbons, oil and grease, and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in crankcase oil and vehicle emissions are the major SVOCs detected in highway runoff and urban stormwater. The few loading factors and regression equations that were developed in the 1970's and 1980's have limited use in estimating current (1998) loads of SVOCs on a national scale. These factors and equations are based on few data and use inconsistent units, and some are independent of rainfall. Also, more cars on the road today have catalytic converters, and fuels that were used in 1998 are cleaner than when loading factors and regression equations were developed. Comparisons to water-quality and sedimentquality criteria and guidelines indicate that PAHs, phenolic compounds, and phthalates in runoff and sediment exceeded U.S. Environmental Protection Agency drinking-water and aquatic-life standards and guidelines. PAHs in stream sediments adjacent to highways have the highest potential for adverse effects on receiving streams. Few data exist on VOCs in highway runoff. VOCs were detected in precipitation adjacent to a highway in England, and chloromethane, toluene, xylenes, 1,2,4-trimethylbenzene, and 1,2,3-trichloropropane were detected in runoff from a highway in Texas. In urban stormwater, gasoline-related compounds were detected in as many as 23 percent of the samples. Land use could be the most significant factor affecting the occurrence of VOCs, with highest concentrations of VOCs found in industrial areas. Temperature is another factor affecting the occurrence and concentrations of VOCs. Urban land surfaces are the primary nonpoint source of VOCs in stormwater. However, the atmosphere is a potential source of hydrophilic VOCs in stormwater, especially during cold seasons when partitioning of VOCs from air into water i

Open-File Report↗

USGS1997

Pesticides in surface waters: distribution, trends, and governing factors

Pesticde use in agriculture and non-agriculture settings has increased dramatically over the last several decades. Concern about adverse effects on the environment and human health has spurred an enormous amount of research into their environmental behavior and fate. Pesticides in Surface Waters presents a comprehensive summary of this research. This book evaluates published studies that focus on measuring pesticide concentration. The studies chosen include peer reviewed scientific literature, government reports, laboratory studies, and those using microcosms and artificial streams and ponds. The authors used this information to develop their overview of pesticide contamination of surface waters. The exhaustive compilation of data along with the fundamental science make this book essential for those involved in pesticide use, environmental protection, water quality, and human or ecological risk assessment. Pesticides in Surface Waters covers the results of actual studies, sources of pesticides to surface water, fate and transport, and environmental significance. Hundreds of data-packed tables, maps, charts, and drawings illustrate the key points, making research and application easy and cost effective.

Book↗

USGS2014

Relations of water-quality constituent concentrations to surrogate measurements in the lower Platte River corridor, Nebraska, 2007 through 2011

The lower Platte River, Nebraska, provides drinking water, irrigation water, and in-stream flows for recreation, wildlife habitat, and vital habitats for several threatened and endangered species. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Lower Platte River Corridor Alliance (LPRCA) developed site-specific regression models for water-quality constituents at four sites (Shell Creek near Columbus, Nebraska [USGS site 06795500]; Elkhorn River at Waterloo, Nebr. [USGS site 06800500]; Salt Creek near Ashland, Nebr. [USGS site 06805000]; and Platte River at Louisville, Nebr. [USGS site 06805500]) in the lower Platte River corridor. The models were developed by relating continuously monitored water-quality properties (surrogate measurements) to discrete water-quality samples. These models enable existing web-based software to provide near-real-time estimates of stream-specific constituent concentrations to support natural resources management decisions. Since 2007, USGS, in cooperation with the LPRCA, has continuously monitored four water-quality properties seasonally within the lower Platte River corridor: specific conductance, water temperature, dissolved oxygen, and turbidity. During 2007 through 2011, the USGS and the Nebraska Department of Environmental Quality collected and analyzed discrete water-quality samples for nutrients, major ions, pesticides, suspended sediment, and bacteria. These datasets were used to develop the regression models. This report documents the collection of these various water-quality datasets and the development of the site-specific regression models. Regression models were developed for all four monitored sites. Constituent models for Shell Creek included nitrate plus nitrite, total phosphorus, orthophosphate, atrazine, acetochlor, suspended sediment, and Escherichia coli (E. coli) bacteria. Regression models that were developed for the Elkhorn River included nitrate plus nitrite, total Kjeldahl nitrogen, total phosphorus, orthophosphate, chloride, atrazine, acetochlor, suspended sediment, and E. coli. Models developed for Salt Creek included nitrate plus nitrite, total Kjeldahl nitrogen, suspended sediment, and E. coli. Lastly, models developed for the Platte River site included total Kjeldahl nitrogen, total phosphorus, sodium, metolachlor, atrazine, acetochlor, suspended sediment, and E. coli.

Nebraska↗

USGS2002

Sources and magnitude of bias associated with determination of polychlorinated biphenyls in environmental samples

Recently compiled data on the composition of commercial Aroclor mixtures and ECD (electron capture detector) response factors for all 209 PCB congeners are used to develop estimates of the bias associated with determination of polychlorinated blphenyis. During quantitation of multlcomponent peaks by congener-specific procedures error is introduced because of variable ECD response to isomeric PCBs. Under worst case conditions, the magnitude of this bias can range from less than 2% to as much as 600%. Multicomponent peaks containing the more highly and the lower chlorinated congeners experience the most bias. For this reason, quantitation of Σ PCB in Aroclor mixtures dominated by these species (e.g. 1016) are potentially subject to the greatest error. Comparison of response factor data for ECDs from two laboratories shows that the sign and magnitude of calibration bias for a given multicomponent peak is variable and depends, in part, on the response characteristics of individual detectors. By using the most abundant congener (of each multicomponent peak) for purposes of calibration, one can reduce the maximum bias to less than 55%. Moreover, due to cancellation of errors, the bias resulting from summation of all peak concentrations (i.e. Σ PCB) becomes vanishingly small (<1.2%). In contrast, bias associated with determination of Σ PCB as Aroclor equivalents by the traditional Aroclor method is potentially large (>200%) and highly variable in sign and magnitude. In this case, bias originates not only from the incomplete chromatographic resolution of PCB congeners but also the overlapping patterns of the Aroclor mixtures. Together these results illustrate the advantages of the congener-specific method of PCB quantitation over the traditional Aroclor Method and the extreme difficulty of estimating bias incurred by the latter procedure on a post hoc basis.

Analytical Chemistry↗

USGS2014

Persistence of DNA in carcasses, slime and avian feces may affect interpretation of environmental DNA data

The prevention of non-indigenous aquatic invasive species spreading into new areas is a goal of many resource managers. New techniques have been developed to survey for species that are difficult to capture with conventional gears that involve the detection of their DNA in water samples (eDNA). This technique is currently used to track the invasion of bigheaded carps (silver carp and bighead carp; Hypophthalmichthys molitrix and H. nobilis ) in the Chicago Area Waterway System and Upper Mississippi River. In both systems DNA has been detected from silver carp without the capture of a live fish, which has led to some uncertainty about the source of the DNA. The potential contribution to eDNA by vectors and fomites has not been explored. Because barges move from areas with a high abundance of bigheaded carps to areas monitored for the potential presence of silver carp, we used juvenile silver carp to simulate the barge transport of dead bigheaded carp carcasses, slime residue, and predator feces to determine the potential of these sources to supply DNA to uninhabited waters where it could be detected and misinterpreted as indicative of the presence of live bigheaded carp. Our results indicate that all three vectors are feasible sources of detectable eDNA for at least one month after their deposition. This suggests that current monitoring programs must consider alternative vectors of DNA in the environment and consider alternative strategies to minimize the detection of DNA not directly released from live bigheaded carps.

PLoS ONE↗

USGS2009

Learning to be different: Acquired skills, social learning, frequency dependence, and environmental variation can cause behaviourally mediated foraging specializations

Question: How does the ability to improve foraging skills by learning, and to transfer that learned knowledge, affect the development of intra-population foraging specializations? Features of the model: We use both a state-dependent life-history model implemented by stochastic dynamic programming (SDPM) and an individual-based model (IBM) to capture the dynamic nature of behavioural preferences in feeding. Variables in the SDPM include energy reserves, skill levels, energy and handling time per single prey item, metabolic rate, the rates at which skills are learned and forgotten, the effect of skills on handling time, and the relationship between energy reserves and fitness. Additional variables in the IBM include the probability of successful weaning, the logistic dynamics of the prey species with stochastic recruitment, the intensity of top-down control of prey by predators, the mean and variance in skill levels of new recruits, and the extent to which learned Information can be transmitted via matrilineal social learning. Key range of variables: We explore the effects of approaching the time horizon in the SDPM, changing the extent to which skills can improve with experience, increasing the rates of learning or forgetting of skills, changing whether the learning curve is constant, accelerating (T-shaped) or decelerating ('r'-shaped), changing both mean and maximum possible energy reserves, changing metabolic costs of foraging, and changing the rate of encounter with prey. Conclusions: The model results show that the following factors increase the degree of prey specialization observed in a predator population: (1) Experience handling a prey type can substantially improve foraging skills for that prey. (2) There is limited ability to retain complex learned skills for multiple prey types. (3) The learning curve for acquiring new foraging skills is accelerating, or J-shaped. (4) The metabolic costs of foraging are high relative to available energy reserves. (5) Offspring can learn foraging skills from their mothers (matrilineal social learning). (6) Food abundance is limited, such that average individual energy reserves are low Additionally, the following factors increase the likelihood of alternative specializations co-occurring in a predator population: (1) The predator exerts effective top-down control of prey abundance, resulting in frequency-dependent dynamics. (2) There is stochastic Variation in prey population dynamics, but this Variation is neither too extreme in magnitude nor too 'slow' with respect to the time required for an individual forager to learn new foraging skills. For a given predator population, we deduce that the degree of specialization will be highest for those prey types requiring complex capture or handling skills, while prey species that are both profitable and easy to capture and handle will be included in the diet of all individuals. Frequency-dependent benefits of selecting alternative prey types, combined with the ability of foragers to improve their foraging skills by learning, and transmit learned skills to offspring, can result in behaviourally mediated foraging specialization, and also lead to the co-existence of alternative specializations. The extent of such specialization is predicted to be a variable trait, increasing in locations or years when intra-specific competition is high relative to inter-specific competition. ?? 2009 M. Tim Tinker.

Evolutionary Ecology Research↗

USGS2015

Understanding uncertainty in temperature effects on vector-borne disease: a Bayesian approach

Extrinsic environmental factors influence the distribution and population dynamics of many organisms, including insects that are of concern for human health and agriculture. This is particularly true for vector-borne infectious diseases like malaria, which is a major source of morbidity and mortality in humans. Understanding the mechanistic links between environment and population processes for these diseases is key to predicting the consequences of climate change on transmission and for developing effective interventions. An important measure of the intensity of disease transmission is the reproductive number R 0 . However, understanding the mechanisms linking R 0 and temperature, an environmental factor driving disease risk, can be challenging because the data available for parameterization are often poor. To address this, we show how a Bayesian approach can help identify critical uncertainties in components of R 0 and how this uncertainty is propagated into the estimate of R 0 . Most notably, we find that different parameters dominate the uncertainty at different temperature regimes: bite rate from 15°C to 25°C; fecundity across all temperatures, but especially ~25–32°C; mortality from 20°C to 30°C; parasite development rate at ~15–16°C and again at ~33–35°C. Focusing empirical studies on these parameters and corresponding temperature ranges would be the most efficient way to improve estimates of R 0 . While we focus on malaria, our methods apply to improving process-based models more generally, including epidemiological, physiological niche, and species distribution models.

Ecology↗

USGS2000

Considerations involved with the use of semipermeable membrane devices for monitoring environmental contaminants

Semipermeable membrane devices (SPMDs) are used with increasing frequency, and throughout the world as samplers of organic contaminants. The devices can be used to detect a variety of lipophilic chemicals in water, sediment/soil, and air. SPMDs are designed to sample nonpolar, hydrophobic chemicals. The maximum concentration factor achievable for a particular chemical is proportional to its octanol–water partition coefficient. Techniques used for cleanup of SPMD extracts for targeted analytes and for general screening by full-scan mass spectrometry do not differ greatly from techniques used for extracts of other matrices. However, SPMD extracts contain potential interferences that are specific to the membrane–lipid matrix. Procedures have been developed or modified to alleviate these potential interferences. The SPMD approach has been demonstrated to be applicable to sequestering and analyzing a wide array of environmental contaminants including organochlorine pesticides, polychlorinated biphenyls, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, polychlorinated dioxins and dibenzofurans, selected organophosphate pesticides and pyrethroid insecticides, and other nonpolar organic chemicals. We present herein an overview of effective procedural steps for analyzing exposed SPMDs for trace to ultra-trace levels of contaminants sequestered from environmental matrices.

Journal of Chromatography A↗

USGS2004

Simulation of ground-water flow in the Potomac-Raritan-Magothy aquifer system, Pennsauken Township and vicinity, New Jersey

The Potomac-Raritan-Magothy aquifer system is one of the primary sources of potable water in the Coastal Plain of New Jersey, particularly in heavily developed areas along the Delaware River. In Pennsauken Township, Camden County, local drinking-water supplies from this aquifer system have been contaminated by hexavalent chromium at concentrations that exceed the New Jersey maximum contaminant level. In particular, ground water at the Puchack well field has been adversely affected to the point where, since 1984, water is no longer withdrawn from this well field for public supply. The area that contains the Puchack well field was added to the National Priorities List in 1998 as a Superfund site. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) conducted a reconnaissance study from 1996 to 1998 during which hydrogeologic and water-quality data were collected and a ground-water-flow model was developed to describe the conditions in the aquifer system in the Pennsauken Township area. The current investigation by the USGS, in cooperation with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA), is an extension of the previous study. Results of the current study can be applied to a Remedial Investigation and Feasibility Study conducted at the Puchack well field Superfund site. The USGS study collected additional data on the hydrogeology and water-quality in the area. These data were incorporated into a refined model of the ground-water-flow system in the Potomac-Raritan-Magothy aquifer system. A finite-difference model was developed to simulate ground-water flow and the advective transport of chromium-contaminated ground water in the aquifers of the Potomac-Raritan-Magothy aquifer system in the Pennsauken Township area. An 11-layer model was used to represent the complex hydrogeologic framework. The model was calibrated using steady-state water-level data from March 1998, April 1998, and April 2001. Water-level recovery during the shutdown of Puchack 1 during March to April 1998 was simulated to evaluate model performance in relation to changing stresses. The Delaware River contributes appreciable-flow to the ground-water system from areas where the Middle and Lower aquifers crop out beneath the river. A transient simulation of an aquifer test near the Delaware River was run to help characterize the hydraulic conductivity of the riverbed sediments represented in the model. Vertical flow across confining units between the aquifers is highly variable and is important in the movement of water and associated contaminants through the flow system. The model was imbedded within a regional model of the Potomac-Raritan-Magothy aquifer system in Camden County. In general, a simulation of baseline conditions, which can provide a representation on which simulations of various alternatives can be based for the feasibility study, incorporated average conditions from 1998 to 2000. Ground-water withdrawals within the model area during this period averaged about 14 Mgal/d. Regional ground-water flow is from recharge areas and from the Delaware River to downgradient pumped wells located just east of the model area in central Camden County. Simulation results show an important connection between the Intermediate sand and the Lower aquifer of the Potomac-Raritan-Magothy aquifer system in the vicinity of the chromium-contaminated area. The Delaware River contributes nearly 10 Mgal/d to the flow system, whereas recharge contributes about 6 Mgal/d. Ground-water withdrawals within the model area account for nearly 14 Mgal/d (mostly from the Lower aquifer of the Potomac-Raritan-Magothy aquifer system).

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2020

Global challenges for nitrogen science-policy interactions: Towards the International Nitrogen Management System (INMS) and improved coordination between multi-lateral environmental agreements

Human interference with the nitrogen cycle has doubled reactive nitrogen inputs to the global biosphere over the past century, leading to changes across multiple environmental issues that require urgent action. Nitrogen fertilizers and biological nitrogen fixation have allowed benefits of increased crop harvest and livestock production, while in some areas there is insufficient nitrogen to fertilize crops. Whether in excess or deficit, nitrogen losses from its inefficient use are causing a combination of freshwater and marine pollution, air pollution, alteration of climate balance, stratospheric ozone loss, biodiversity loss and reduction of soil quality. The resulting nitrogen pollution affects human health, well-being and livelihoods. Scientific efforts have begun to bring these issues together. However, there is still a high degree of fragmentation between research on the different benefits and threats of reactive nitrogen and between the respective policy frameworks, especially at the global scale. We argue that a more joined-up approach to managing the global nitrogen cycle is needed to develop the ‘gravity of common cause’ between nitrogen issues and to avoid policy trade-offs. We describe how a coherent system for science evidence provision is being developed to support policy development through the ‘International Nitrogen Management System’ (INMS). There is now a matching challenge to bring together the multiple policy agreements relevant for nitrogen as a foundation to address synergies/trade-offs and to set priorities. Based on review of existing frameworks, we outline the concept for an Interconvention nitrogen coordination mechanism. This could make a major contribution to multiple Sustainable Development Goals by stimulating the next generation of international nitrogen strategies: maximizing the benefits of efficient nitrogen use, while minimizing its many environmental threats.

Book chapter↗

USGS2023

Assembling the right pieces: Developing an interdisciplinary team to study disease, decline, and recovery of a world-class Smallmouth Bass fishery

Managing and understanding fisheries dynamics are becoming more complex as new and seemingly more complicated environmental factors are identified. Often management requires resources beyond that of any one entity and calls for collaboration among partners with differing priorities and backgrounds to account for the complexity of factors influencing fisheries. We present a collaborative case study from the Susquehanna River basin, Pennsylvania, where Smallmouth Bass Micropterus dolomieu have faced population declines, mortality events, and notable signs of disease in recent years. Collaboration was required to study many facets of the fishery and the environment simultaneously to better understand risk factors and underlying relationships influencing Smallmouth Bass health. The outcomes from this interdisciplinary collaboration allowed for identification of contributing risk factors, led to the development of products and analytical techniques that were mutually beneficial to all partners involved, and provided knowledge that was integrated into fish health and fisheries management.

Maryland, New York, Pennsylvania↗

USGS2020

Report on the workshop ‘Next Steps in Developing Nature Futures’

The workshop ‘New Narratives for Nature: operationalizing the IPBES Nature Futures Scenarios’ was organised by the IPBES task force on scenarios and models and hosted by the Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES), with support from the research team on “Predicting and Assessing Natural Capital and Ecosystem Services through an Integrated Social-Ecological Systems Approach (PANCES)” based at the University of Tokyo, the Research Institute for Humanity and Nature (RIHN), and the United Nations University, with generous financial support from the Ministry of the Environment of Japan. Due to the COVID-19 virus outbreak, most task force members participated through virtual means, with a subset of task force members meeting in person in Japan. The aim of the workshop was to build on the Nature Futures Framework (NFF) and on the ‘nature futures’ participatory scenario-development work initiated by the IPBES expert group on scenarios and models in the first IPBES work programme. This workshop aims to further elaborate the pre-workshop scenario narratives and to enrich discussions on the NFF. The workshop also served to start working on a more detailed task force work plan. These aims were achieved through: • Task force sessions on the further formulation of the Nature Futures narratives. • Task force sessions on the cross-comparison of draft narratives and the further elaboration of the historical-present narrative. • Organisational sessions to begin the drafting of sub-deliverable-specific work plans. • In parallel to the task force workshop, collaborative sessions between the task force and Japanese researchers took place to discuss the application of the Nature Futures Framework at the national scale, using existing national level scenarios from Japan. • A public seminar, in Japan, for a wider audience introducing the scenarios and models task force’s work, the concept of the Nature Futures Framework, and fostered discussions on the concept of transformative change. Summary of outputs of the workshop in Japan • 6 NEW scenario narratives drafts – an evolution of the pre-workshop work using the narrative templates, into a more coherent set of narratives fitting their locations in the Nature Futures Framework, including some illustrative visualisations. • A cross-comparison table – to identify the core similarities and differences across the 6 new narratives (including single narrative-between-narrative comparisons). • A discussion on how to continue further development, requiring identifying pathways to complete the 6 new narratives. • 1 historical-to-present narrative draft – also an evolution of work done prior to the workshop. The task force has yet to synthesize and shorten this draft, ensuring linkages with topics detailed in the 6 new narratives into a more digestible level. • Elaboration of a follow-up plan for further development of the narratives, post-workshop, through a “buddy” system of in-depth online discussions per and between narratives. • 1 Japan case study – on fitting national level scenarios into the Nature Futures Framework. A summary will be shared by the team who worked closely on this with the PANCES partners, which we expect will give interesting insights to the cross-scale application of the Nature Futures Framework. • Detailed work plan implementation drafts (ongoing post workshop in sub-groups).

Report↗

USGS2015

Soil surface organic layers in Arctic Alaska: spatial distribution, rates of formation, and microclimatic effects

Organic layers of living and dead vegetation cover the ground surface in many permafrost landscapes and play important roles in ecosystem processes. These soil surface organic layers (SSOLs) store large amounts of carbon and buffer the underlying permafrost and its contained carbon from changes in aboveground climate. Understanding the dynamics of SSOLs is a prerequisite for predicting how permafrost and carbon stocks will respond to warming climate. Here we ask three questions about SSOLs in a representative area of the Arctic Foothills region of northern Alaska: (1) What environmental factors control the thickness of SSOLs and the carbon they store? (2) How long do SSOLs take to develop on newly stabilized point bars? (3) How do SSOLs affect temperature in the underlying ground? Results show that SSOL thickness and distribution correlate with elevation, drainage area, vegetation productivity, and incoming solar radiation. A multiple regression model based on these correlations can simulate spatial distribution of SSOLs and estimate the organic carbon stored there. SSOLs develop within a few decades after a new, sandy, geomorphic surface stabilizes but require 500–700 years to reach steady state thickness. Mature SSOLs lower the growing season temperature and mean annual temperature of the underlying mineral soil by 8 and 3°C, respectively. We suggest that the proximate effects of warming climate on permafrost landscapes now covered by SSOLs will occur indirectly via climate's effects on the frequency, extent, and severity of disturbances like fires and landslides that disrupt the SSOLs and interfere with their protection of the underlying permafrost.

Alaska↗

USGS2017

Predicting landscape effects of Mississippi River diversions on soil organic carbon sequestration

Large Mississippi River (MR) diversions (peak water flow >1416 m 3 /s and sediment loads >165 kg/s) have been proposed as part of a suite of coastal restoration projects and are expected to rehabilitate and rebuild wetlands to alleviate the significant historic wetland loss in coastal Louisiana. These coastal wetlands are undergoing increasing eustatic sea‐level rise, land subsidence, climate change, and anthropogenic disturbances. However, the effect of MR diversions on wetland soil organic carbon (SOC) sequestration in receiving basins remains unknown. The rate of SOC sequestration or carbon burial in wetlands is one of the variables used to assess the role of wetland soils in carbon cycling and also to construct wetland carbon budgets. In this study, we examined the effects of MR water and sediment diversions on landscape‐scale SOC sequestration rates that were estimated from vertical accretion for the next 50 yr (2010–2060) under two environmental (moderate and less optimistic) scenarios. Our analyses were based on model simulations taken from the Wetland Morphology model developed for Louisiana's 2012 Coastal Master Plan. The master plan modeled a “future‐without‐action” scenario as well as eight individual MR diversion projects in two of the hydrologic basins (Barataria and Breton Sound). We examined the effects that discharge rates (peak flow) and locations of these individual diversion projects had on SOC sequestration rates. Modeling results indicate that large river diversions are capable of improving basin‐wide SOC sequestration capacity (162–222 g C·m −2 ·yr −1 ) by up to 14% (30 g C·m −2 ·yr −1 ) in Louisiana deltaic wetlands compared to the future‐without‐action scenario, especially under the less optimistic scenario. When large river diversions are placed in the upper receiving basin, SOC sequestration rates are 3.7–10.5% higher (6–24 g C·m −2 ·yr −1 ) than when these structures are placed in the lower receiving basin. Modeling results also indicate that both diversion discharge and location have large effects on SOC sequestration in low‐salinity (freshwater and intermediate marshes) as compared to high‐salinity marshes (brackish and saline marshes).

Louisiana↗

USGS2019

Predicting species distributions: unifying model selection and scale optimization for multi-scale occupancy models

Geographic distributions are a basic component of a species’ ecology, and predicting distributions is a fundamental task of conservation and resource management. Reliable prediction depends on identification of appropriate scales of effect for environmental data, and scale-optimization techniques are thus desirable to identify optimal scales for predictor variables. Recent statistical developments have also advanced methods of model selection based explicitly on predictive ability, which differ from commonly-used methods that regulate model structures via anticipated predictive performance. Such methods are beginning to permeate into species distribution models (SDMs), yet there remains no consensus methodology for developing optimally-predictive multi-scale SDMs when covariate data are collected over a range of scales. Thus, we compared the performance of common approaches for scale optimization and model selection in terms of their ability to produce optimally predictive multi-scale Bayesian occupancy models for predicting a species distribution, using models of the breeding distribution for King Rails (Rallus elegans) as a case study. Our results demonstrate sizable gains in predictive performance for hierarchical occupancy models selected explicitly via their ability to predict out-of-sample data using the logarithmic scoring rule, as compared to models selected using information criteria (DIC and WAIC). Information criteria commonly selected individual covariates, as well as scales of effect for those covariates, with suboptimal predictive performance. Performance of models selected using the logarithmic scoring rule was robust across method of scale optimization, which was not true for models selected using DIC and WAIC. Thus, we empirically demonstrate benefits of study designs that enable covariate and scale selection based explicitly on predictive ability. Our results also imply that more careful consideration of what constitutes an optimal scale is warranted in many ecological studies, as the meaning of optimal is not independent of the technique used for scale selection.

Ecosphere↗