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USGS2008

GAP Analysis Bulletin Number 15

The Mission of the Gap Analysis Project (GAP) <http://gapanalysis.nbii.gov> is to promote conservation by providing broad geographic information on biological diversity to resource managers, planners, and policy makers who can use the information to make informed decisions. As part of the National Biological Information Infrastructure (NBII) <http://www.nbii.gov>?a collaborative program to provide increased access to data and information on the nation?s biological resources--GAP data and analytical tools have been used in hundreds of applications: from basic research to comprehensive state wildlife plans; from educational projects in schools to ecoregional assessments of biodiversity. The challenge: keeping common species common means protecting them BEFORE they become threatened. To do this on a state or regional basis requires key information such as land cover descriptions, predicted distribution maps for native animals, and an assessment of the level of protection currently given to those plants and animals. GAP works cooperatively with Federal, state, and local natural resource professionals and academics to provide this kind of information. GAP activities focus on the creation of state and regional databases and maps that depict patterns of land management, land cover, and biodiversity. These data can be used to identify ?gaps? in conservation--instances where an animal or plant community is not adequately represented on the existing network of conservation lands. GAP is administered through the U.S. Geological Survey. Through building partnerships among disparate groups, GAP hopes to foster the kind of collaboration that is needed to address conservation issues on a broad scale. For more information, contact: John Mosesso National GAP Director 703-648-4079 Kevin Gergely National GAP Operations Manager 208-885-3565

GAP Bulletin↗

USGS2003

Challenges to reestablishment of free-ranging populations of black-footed ferrets

The black-footed ferret ( Mustela nigripes ) of North America is critically endangered due in part to its extreme specialization on formerly stable and abundant prairie dogs ( Cynomys ). Its close relative, the Siberian polecat ( M. eversmannii ) seems to have been subjected to a varying environment that was not conducive to specialization. One source of environmental variation in Asian steppes was plague (caused by Yersina pestis ), which was absent from North America. Introduction of plague to North America presents serious challenges to ferret recovery. Partial solutions to other biological and political problems have been found, resulting in improved production in captivity, increased survival post-release, and thriving populations in plague-free South Dakota.

Comptes Rendus - Biologies↗

USGS2001

Landscape determinants of nonindigenous fish invasions

Much has been written about the influence of exotic or nonindigenous species on natural habitats and communities of organisms, but little is known of the physical or biological conditions that lead to successful invasion of native habitats and communities by exotics. We studied invasivity factors in headwater streams of the Susquehanna River West Branch, which drains portions of the northern Appalachian Plateau. A replicated (two major tributaries) 3 × 3 factorial design was used to determine landscape effects of size (stream order) and quality (land use) on abiotic (physical and chemical) and biotic (fish community structure and function) stream attributes. Seven (21%) of thirty-four fish species (brown trout, common carp, mimic shiner, bluegill, smallmouth bass, fantail darter, and banded darter) collected in the eighteen streams sampled were nonindigenous to the basin. Watershed size (stream orders 1, 3, and 5) significantly affected stream geomorphologic and habitat variables (gradient, width, depth, current velocity, diel water temperature, bank overhang, canopy cover, and woody debris density) but not water-quality variables, while land use in watersheds (conservation, mining, and agriculture) significantly affected measured water-quality variables (alkalinity and concentrations of manganese, calcium, chloride, nitrate, and total dissolved solids) but not stream physical or habitat quality. Both watershed size and land use affected fish-community variables such as presence of particular species, species density, species diversity, tolerance diversity, and mean fish size, but in both cases the effect was transparent to native-origin status of fish species. No relationships were found between occurrence of nonindigenous species in watersheds and trophic structure or functional diversity. Therefore, the hypothesis that reduced species diversity increases vulnerability to nonindigenous species was not supported. However, the spatial variation associated with both water-quality and habitat-quality factors was greater in streams with mixed (those with nonindigenous species) than with exclusively native assemblages. These findings suggest that the mechanism for successful invasion by nonindigenous or exotic species is through change in water or habitat quality associated with human or natural disturbances, such as agriculture and mining activities in watersheds. Biotic factors appear to play no or a lesser role in the invasibility of northern Appalachian lotic systems.

Biological Invasions↗

USGS2015

Non-native and native organisms moving into high elevation and high latitude ecosystems in an era of climate change: new challenges for ecology and conservation

Cold environments at high elevation and high latitude are often viewed as resistant to biological invasions. However, climate warming, land use change and associated increased connectivity all increase the risk of biological invasions in these environments. Here we present a summary of the key discussions of the workshop ‘Biosecurity in Mountains and Northern Ecosystems: Current Status and Future Challenges’ (Flen, Sweden, 1–3 June 2015). The aims of the workshop were to (1) increase awareness about the growing importance of species expansion—both non-native and native—at high elevation and high latitude with climate change, (2) review existing knowledge about invasion risks in these areas, and (3) encourage more research on how species will move and interact in cold environments, the consequences for biodiversity, and animal and human health and wellbeing. The diversity of potential and actual invaders reported at the workshop and the likely interactions between them create major challenges for managers of cold environments. However, since these cold environments have experienced fewer invasions when compared with many warmer, more populated environments, prevention has a real chance of success, especially if it is coupled with prioritisation schemes for targeting invaders likely to have greatest impact. Communication and co-operation between cold environment regions will facilitate rapid response, and maximise the use of limited research and management resources.

Biological Invasions↗

USGS2018

Influences of the invasive tamarisk leaf beetle (Diorhabda carinulata) on avian diets along the Dolores River in Southwestern Colorado USA

The tamarisk leaf beetle ( Diorhabda carinulata ), introduced from Eurasia in 2001 as a biological control agent for the invasive plant Tamarix ramosissima , has spread widely throughout the western USA. With D. carinulata now very abundant, scientists and restoration managers have questioned what influence this introduced arthropod might have upon the avian component of riparian ecosystems. From 2009 through 2012 we studied the consequences of biological invasions of the introduced tamarisk shrub and tamarisk leaf beetles on the diets of native birds along the Dolores River in southwestern Colorado, USA. We examined avian foraging behavior, sampled the arthropod community, documented bird diets and the use of invasive tamarisk shrubs and tamarisk leaf beetles by birds. We documented D. carinulata abundance, on what plants the beetles occurred, and to what degree they were consumed by birds as compared to other arthropods. We hypothesized that if D. carinulata is an important new avian food source, birds should consume beetles at least in proportion to their abundance. We also hypothesized that birds should forage more in tamarisk in the late summer when tamarisk leaf beetle larvae are more abundant than in early summer, and that birds should select beetle-damaged tamarisk shrubs. We found that D. carinulata composed 24.0 percent (± 19.9–27.4%) and 35.4% biomass of all collected arthropods. From the gut contents of 188 birds (25 passerine species), only four species ( n = 11 birds) contained tamarisk leaf beetle parts. Although D. carinulata comprised one-quarter of total insect abundance, frequency of occurrence in bird gut contents was only 2.1% by abundance and 3.4% biomass. Birds used tamarisk shrubs for foraging in proportion to their availability, but foraging frequency did not increase during the late summer when more tamarisk leaf beetles were present and birds avoided beetle-damaged tamarisk shrubs. Despite D. carinulata being the most abundant arthropod in the environment, these invasive beetles were not frequently consumed by birds and seem not to provide a significant contribution to avian diets.

Colorado↗

USGS2023

Plant migration due to winter climate change: Range expansion of tropical invasive plants in response to warming winters

Warming winters due to climate change can facilitate the range expansion of invasive non-native species. In the southeastern United States, the frequency and intensity of extreme winter temperatures determines the northern range limits of many tropical organisms including many species of invasive non-native plants. However, the effects of winter climate change on invasive species’ range limits have been understudied. Here, we used temperature and species occurrence data to examine the sensitivity of invasive tropical plant species to freezing temperatures. We also examined the potential for northward range expansion of these species due to winter climate change. From an initial group of 81 invasive plant species selected due to their ability to transform native plant communities, our analyses identify and quantify species-specific temperature thresholds for 40 tropical, cold sensitive species. Future winter warming scenarios indicate that these tropical invasive plant species have the potential for northward range expansion across the southeastern United States in response to small changes in the severity of winter cold temperature extremes. The potential for range expansion is greatest in coastal areas, which typically have warmer temperatures than inland counterparts. Thus, coastal regions are likely to serve as biological invasion hotspots from which invasive species expand into inland areas. The state of Florida has become a global hotspot for biological invasions, with tens of millions of dollars (US) spent annually to control the ecological and societal impacts of invasive plants on publicly held conservation lands. Collectively, our results underscore the need to better anticipate and prepare for the northward range expansion of invasive plants from Florida into the southeastern United States in response to winter climate change.

Florida, Georgia, South Carolina↗

USGS2025

Predicting invasiveness of freshwater fishes imported into North America: Regional differences in models and outcomes

Biological invasions driven by international trade heighten the urgency for development of invasion risk models, as the traits and parameters that consistently predict successful invasion remain unresolved. For four regions of North America that include parts of the United States and Canada (Sacramento-San Joaquin River Basins, Lower Colorado River Basin, Great Lakes Region, Mid-Atlantic Region), we construct and compare classification tree models to reveal robust predictors for the establishment and ecological impact stages of freshwater fish invasion. We subsequently apply the models to identify invasive fish species in trade and conduct pathway analyses to determine which trades (aquarium, biological supply, live bait, live food, water garden) and source continents pose the greatest risk to each region. Model results differed by invasion stage and region. Across regions, establishment models shared climate-related predictors including climate match and temperature tolerance. Three of the four impact models contained prior establishment success. The greatest number of species (548) were predicted to establish in the Sacramento-San Joaquin while the fewest (5) were predicted to establish in the Mid-Atlantic. Forty species were predicted to establish in multiple regions, five of which were also predicted to have high impact. The aquarium trade and Asia supplied the most species predicted to establish. Taken together, the results highlight region-specific models, indicating no universal model predicts invasion. Climate-related and prior establishment variables were most useful to risk assessments. The regional models, and identified high-risk pathways and potential invaders, could be applied to prevent future fish invasions in North America.

Laurentian Great Lakes Region, Lower Colorado Rive↗

USGS2016

Stock assessment in inland fisheries: a foundation for sustainable use and conservation

Fisheries stock assessments are essential for science-based fisheries management. Inland fisheries pose challenges, but also provide opportunities for biological assessments that differ from those encountered in large marine fisheries for which many of our assessment methods have been developed. These include the number and diversity of fisheries, high levels of ecological and environmental variation, and relative lack of institutional capacity for assessment. In addition, anthropogenic impacts on habitats, widespread presence of non-native species and the frequent use of enhancement and restoration measures such as stocking affect stock dynamics. This paper outlines various stock assessment and data collection approaches that can be adapted to a wide range of different inland fisheries and management challenges. Although this paper identifies challenges in assessment, it focuses on solutions that are practical, scalable and transferrable. A path forward is suggested in which biological assessment generates some of the critical information needed by fisheries managers to make effective decisions that benefit the resource and stakeholders.

Reviews in Fish Biology and Fisheries↗

USGS2016

Extending ordinal regression with a latent zero-augmented beta distribution

Ecological abundance data are often recorded on an ordinal scale in which the lowest category represents species absence. One common example is when plant species cover is visually assessedwithin bounded quadrats and then assigned to pre-defined cover class categories.We present an ordinal beta hurdle model that directly models ordinal category probabilitieswith a biologically realistic beta-distributed latent variable.Ahurdle-at-zero model allows ecologists to explore distribution (absence) and abundance processes in an integrated framework. This provides an alternative to cumulative link models when data are inconsistent with the assumption that the odds ofmoving into a higher category are the same for all categories (proportional odds). Graphical tools and a deviance information criterion were developed to assess whether a hurdle-at-zero model should be used for inferences rather than standard ordinal methods. Hurdle-at-zero and non-hurdle ordinal models fit to vegetation cover class data produced substantially different conclusions.The ordinal beta hurdle model yielded more precise parameter estimates than cumulative logit models, although out-of-sample predictions were similar. The ordinal beta hurdle model provides inferences directly on the latent biological variable of interest, percent cover, and supports exploration of more realistic ecological patterns and processes through the hurdle-at-zero or two-part specification.We provide JAGS code as an on-line supplement. Supplementary materials accompanying this paper appear on-line.

Journal of Agricultural, Biological, and Environme↗

USGS2014

Animal reintroductions: an innovative assessment of survival

Quantitative evaluations of reintroductions are infrequent and assessments of milestones reached before a project is completed, or abandoned due to lack of funding, are rare. However, such assessments, which are promoted in adaptive management frameworks, are critical. Quantification can provide defensible estimates of biological success, such as the number of survivors from a released cohort, with associated cost per animal. It is unlikely that the global issues of endangered wildlife and population declines will abate, therefore, assurance colonies and reintroductions are likely to become more common. If such endeavors are to be successful biologically or achieve adequate funding, implementation must be more rigorous and accountable. We use a novel application of a multistate, robust design capture-recapture model to estimate survival of reintroduced tadpoles through metamorphosis (i.e., the number of individuals emerging from the pond) and thereby provide a quantitative measure of effort and success for an "in progress" reintroduction of toads. Our data also suggest that tadpoles released at later developmental stages have an increased probability of survival and that eggs laid in the wild hatched at higher rates than eggs laid by captive toads. We illustrate how an interim assessment can identify problems, highlight successes, and provide information for use in adjusting the effort or implementing a Decision-Theoretic adaptive management strategy.

Biological Conservation↗

USGS2019

Left out in the rain: Comparing productivity of two associated species exposes a leak in the umbrella species concept

Multi-species approaches to wildlife management have become commonplace and purport to benefit entire biological communities. These strategies aim to manage different, often taxonomically distant species under a single regime based on shared habitat associations and/or co-occurrence in the landscape. We tested the efficacy of multi-species management in the context of creating and maintaining early-successional forest cover types using two species of migratory birds that breed in eastern North America and are each the focus of intensive, concurrent, and overlapping management. American woodcock ( Scolopax minor ) and golden-winged warblers ( Vermivora chrysoptera ) breed in similar diverse-forest landscapes. Each species purportedly benefits from management for the other species and both are often used as flagship species for the creation of young forest and the conservation of associated avian communities. However, the landscape-species relationships that drive reproductive success and population stability in these species have not been explicitly compared. Here, we use previously published spatially-explicit models of productivity (the number of juveniles raised to a biologically significant milestone) to identify the relationship(s) between productivity of American woodcock and golden-winged warblers across a shared landscape. We found productivity to be negatively associated between these species on the same landscape at all spatial scales we modelled (1 m 2 –100 ha). Our results suggest that, with regards to productivity, American woodcock and golden-winged warblers have opposing relationships with the composition of the landscapes in which they coexist and therefore should not be assumed to benefit similarly from any individual management action at any relevant spatial scale.

Biological Conservation↗

USGS2007

Short-term disruption of a leafy spurge (Euphorbia esula) biocontrol program following herbicide application

Integrated pest management (IPM) for invasive plant species is being advocated by researchers and implemented by land managers, but few studies have evaluated the success of IPM programs in natural areas. We assessed the relative effects of components of an IPM program for leafy spurge (Euphorbia esula), an invasive plant, at Theodore Roosevelt National Park, North Dakota. Effects of herbicides on leafy spurge abundance and on dynamics of flea beetles (Aphthona spp.) used to control leafy spurge were evaluated over three field seasons following herbicide application. We monitored leafy spurge-infested plots with established flea beetle populations that had received picloram plus 2,4-D in September 1997 or 1998, imazapic in September 1998, versus those with no chemical treatment. Mature stem counts did not differ significantly between treated and untreated plots in 2001, suggesting that leafy spurge stands had recovered from herbicide treatment. Flea beetles were less abundant on plots with a history of herbicide treatment. Structural equation models indicated that in 2000 negative correlations between relative abundances of the two flea beetle species were greater on plots that had received herbicide treatments than on those that had not, but by 2001 no differences were apparent between treated and untreated plots. These results suggest that the most effective component of IPM for leafy spurge at this site is biological control. All herbicide effects we observed were short-lived, but the increased negative correlation between flea beetle relative abundances during 2000 implies that herbicide application may have temporarily disrupted an effective biological control program at this site. ?? 2006 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Biological Control↗

USGS2018

Modeling the compensatory response of an invasive tree to specialist insect herbivory

The severity of the effects of herbivory on plant fitness can be moderated by the ability of plants to compensate for biomass loss. Compensation is an important component of the ecological fitness in many plants, and has been shown to reduce the effects of pests on agricultural plant yields. It can also reduce the effectiveness of biocontrol through introduced herbivores in controlling weedy invasive plants. This study used a modeling approach to predict the effect of different levels of foliage herbivory by biological control agents introduced to control the invasive tree Melaleuca quinquennervia (melaleuca) in Florida. It is assumed in the model that melaleuca can optimally change its carbon and nitrogen allocation strategies in order to compensate for the effects of herbivory. The model includes reallocation of more resources to production and maintenance of photosynthetic tissues at the expense of roots. This compensation is shown to buffer the severity of the defoliation effect, but the model predicts a limit on the maximum herbivory that melaleuca can tolerate and survive. The model also shows that the level of available limiting nutrient (e.g., soil nitrogen) may play an important role in a melaleuca’s ability to compensate for herbivory. This study has management implications for the best ways to maximize the level of damage using biological control or other means of defoliation.

Florida↗

USGS2020

Multiple mechanisms determine the effect of warming on plant litter decomposition in a dryland

In drylands, where soil fertility is typically low, plant litter decomposition provides particularly critical carbon and nitrogen inputs into soil. Although climate change is projected to increase the already large global extent of drylands, it is unknown how warmer temperatures will affect core ecosystem processes, such as plant litter decomposition, in these systems. To address this key unknown, we conducted a litterbag study in a long-term dryland warming experiment in southeastern Utah, USA. Unexpectedly, we did not find an overall effect of warming on leaf litter mass loss over time. Instead, our results indicated both positive and negative effects of warming on mass loss which offset one another. In particular, our findings suggested that a warming-induced degradation of biological soil crusts (soil surface community of mosses, lichens, and/or cyanobacteria that live in drylands worldwide) increased soil-litter mixing, thereby accelerating decomposition. Results also suggested that warming-induced decreases in litter moisture slowed decomposition. In addition to assessing mass loss, we found that warming lowered the carbon-to-nitrogen ratio of the decomposing litter. These results showed that warming did not alter the total litter mass-loss rates in this ecosystem, but that decomposition patterns were affected through more nuanced changes to both the biological and physical environment of dryland soils.

Utah↗

USGS2004

Assessment of current and proposed nature reserves of Mexico based on their capacity to protect geophysical features and biodiversity

Mexico currently has 144 nature reserves covering approximately 9.1% of its land area. These reserves were established for a variety of reasons - often unrelated to the protection of biodiversity. In 2000 in response to a growing concern about the lack of organized conservation reserve planning to protect the important threatened biological and physical features of Mexico, the Mexican Commission for Knowledge and Use of Biodiversity (CONABIO) proposed the establishment of 151 new reserves for Mexico covering 51,429,500 ha. We compiled a GIS analysis using digital thematic maps of physical and biological features to examine how the existing and proposed reserves serve to protect the biodiversity and physical features of the country. Using a conservation target of placing a minimum of 12% of the land area of each important biophysical feature in nature reserves, we found that the 144 existing nature reserves covering 18 million ha (9% of the country) only meet that target for elevation ranges >3000 m and areas with poor soils. These mountainous areas represent less than 1% of the country. The gaps in the existing nature reserves network occur mainly at lower and intermediate elevations (<3000 m) areas with xeric, tropical, and temperate ecosystems, and high productivity soils. The areas proposed by CONABIO increase the proportion of protected lands in the country to over 27% and most of the conservation targets for geophysical features, and land cover, categories are met. Whether this area would be sufficient to maintain viable populations and ecological integrity of species and ecosystems is unknown. Even with the new reserves, low elevation coastal lands would be below the conservation target in the nature reserves. To include a representative sample of these lands would be difficult as these are the same areas where the majority of people live. ?? 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Biological Conservation↗

USGS2002

Mexican native trouts: A review of their history and current systematic and conservation status

While biologists have been aware of the existence of native Mexican trouts for over a century, they have received little study. The few early studies that did much more than mention their existence began in the 1930s and continued into the early 1960s, focusing primarily on distributional surveys and taxonomic analyses. Starting in the 1980s the Baja California rainbow trout became the subject of more detailed studies, but very little remains known of mainland trouts of the Sierra Madre Occidental. We review earlier studies and report on our own collections and observations made between 1975 and 2000. We present newly discovered historical evidence that leads us to conclude that a "lost" cutthroat trout, a lineage not previously known from Mexico, was collected more than a century ago from headwaters of the Ri??o Conchos (a major tributary of the Rio Grande (= Ri??o Bravo)), a basin not previously considered to harbor a native trout. We review the last century of regional natural resource management and discuss our own observations of trout habitats. Impacts of logging, road building and overgrazing are widespread and expanding. Many streams suffer from heavy erosion, siltation and contamination, and though long-term hydrologic data are generally not available, there is evidence of decreased discharge in many streams. These problems appear related to region-wide land management practices as well as recent regional drought. Trout culture operations using exotic rainbow trout have rapidly proliferated throughout the region, threatening genetic introgression and/or competition with native forms and predation on them. Knowledge of distribution, abundance, relationships and taxonomy, not to mention ecology and population biology, of native trouts of the Sierra Madre Occidental remains inadequate. Vast areas of most mainland drainages are still unexplored by fish collectors, and even rudimentary information regarding basic biology, ecology and population structure of stocks remains lacking. Concentrated exploration, research and management of this long overlooked and undervalued resource are all urgently needed. The history of natural resources exploitation that placed so many native trouts of the western United States on threatened and endangered species lists is repeating itself in the Sierra Madre Occidental. Without concentrated action and development of region-wide socio-economic solutions for current, largely non-sustainable resource management practices, native Mexican trout gene pools will soon be in grave danger of extinction.

Reviews in Fish Biology and Fisheries↗

USGS2002

Alien invasions in aquatic ecosystems: Toward an understanding of brook trout invasions and potential impacts on inland cutthroat trout in western North America

Experience from case studies of biological invasions in aquatic ecosystems has motivated a set of proposed empirical “rules” for understanding patterns of invasion and impacts on native species. Further evidence is needed to better understand these patterns, and perhaps contribute to a useful predictive theory of invasions. We reviewed the case of brook trout ( Salvelinus fontinalis )invasions in the western United States and their impacts on native cutthroat trout ( Oncorhynchus clarki ). Unlike many biological invasions, a considerable body of empirical research on brook trout and cutthroat trout is available. We reviewed life histories of each species, brook trout invasions, their impacts on cutthroat trout, and patterns and causes of segregation between brook trout and cutthroat trout. We considered four stages of the invasion process: transport, establishment, spread, and impacts to native species. Most of the research we found focused on impacts. Interspecific interactions, especially competition, were commonly investigated and cited as impacts of brook trout. In many cases it is not clear if brook trout invasions have a measurable impact. Studies of species distributions in the field and a variety of experiments suggest invasion success of brook trout is associated with environmental factors, including temperature, landscape structure, habitat size, stream flow, and human influences. Research on earlier stages of brook trout invasions (transport, establishment, and spread) is relatively limited, but has provided promising insights. Management alternatives for controlling brook trout invasions are limited, and actions to control brook trout focus on direct removal, which is variably successful and can have adverse effects on native species. The management applicability of research has been confounded by the complexity of the problem and by a focus on understanding processes at smaller scales, but not on predicting patterns at larger scales. In the short-term, an improved predictive understanding of brook trout invasions could prove to be most useful, even if processes are incompletely understood. A stronger connection between research and management is needed to identify more effective alternatives for controlling brook trout invasions and for identifying management priorities.

western United States↗

USGS2023

A decade of death and other dynamics: Deepening perspectives on the diversity and distribution of sea stars and wasting

Mass mortality events provide valuable insight into biological extremes and also ecological interactions more generally. The sea star wasting epidemic that began in 2013 catalyzed study of the microbiome, genetics, population dynamics, and community ecology of several high-profile species inhabiting the northeastern Pacific but exposed a dearth of information on the diversity, distributions, and impacts of sea star wasting for many lesser-known sea stars and a need for integration across scales. Here, we combine datasets from single-site to coast-wide studies, across time lines from weeks to decades, for 65 species. We evaluated the impacts of abiotic characteristics hypothetically associated with sea star wasting (sea surface temperature, pelagic primary productivity, upwelling wind forcing, wave exposure, freshwater runoff) and species characteristics (depth distribution, developmental mode, diet, habitat, reproductive period). We find that the 2010s sea star wasting outbreak clearly affected a little over a dozen species, primarily intertidal and shallow subtidal taxa, causing instantaneous wasting prevalence rates of 5%–80%. Despite the collapse of some populations within weeks, environmental and species variation protracted the outbreak, which lasted 2–3 years from onset until declining to chronic background rates of ∼2% sea star wasting prevalence. Recruitment began immediately in many species, and in general, sea star assemblages trended toward recovery; however, recovery was heterogeneous, and a marine heatwave in 2019 raised concerns of a second decline. The abiotic stressors most associated with the 2010s sea star wasting outbreak were elevated sea surface temperature and low wave exposure, as well as freshwater discharge in the north. However, detailed data speaking directly to the biological, ecological, and environmental cause(s) and consequences of the sea star wasting outbreak remain limited in scope, unavoidably retrospective, and perhaps always indeterminate. Redressing this shortfall for the future will require a broad spectrum of monitoring studies not less than the taxonomically broad cross-scale framework we have modeled in this synthesis.

Biological Bulletin↗