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National Assessment of Shoreline Change: Part 1, Historical Shoreline Changes and Associated Coastal Land Loss Along the U.S. Gulf of Mexico

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Beach erosion is a chronic problem along most open-ocean shores of the United States. As coastal populations continue to grow and community infrastructures are threatened by erosion, there is increased demand for accurate information regarding past and present trends and rates of shoreline movement. There is also a need for a comprehensive analysis of shoreline movement that is consistent from one coastal region to another. To meet these national needs, the U.S. Geological Survey is conducting an analysis of historical shoreline changes along open-ocean sandy shores of the conterminous United States and parts of Hawaii and Alaska. One purpose of this work is to develop standard repeatable methods for mapping and analyzing shoreline movement so that periodic updates regarding coastal erosion and land loss can be made nationally that are systematic and internally consistent. This report on states bordering the Gulf of Mexico (Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas) represents the first in a series that will eventually include the Atlantic Coast, Pacific Coast, and parts of Hawaii and Alaska. The report summarizes the methods of analysis, interprets the results, provides explanations regarding the historical and present trends and rates of change, and describes how different coastal communities are responding to coastal erosion. Shoreline change evaluations are based on comparing three historical shorelines with a recent shoreline derived from lidar (Light Detection and Ranging) topographic surveys. The historical shorelines generally represent the following periods: 1800s, 1920s-1930s, and 1970s, whereas the lidar shoreline is 1998-2002. Long-term rates of change are calculated using all four shorelines (1800s to lidar shoreline), whereas short-term rates of change are calculated for the most recent period (1970s to lidar shoreline). The historical rates of change presented in this report represent past conditions and therefore are not intended for predicting future shoreline positions or rates of change. Rates of erosion for the Gulf of Mexico region are generally highest in Louisiana along barrier island and headland shores associated with the Mississippi delta. Erosion is also rapid along some barrier islands and headlands in Texas, and barrier islands in Mississippi are migrating laterally. Highest rates of erosion in Florida are generally localized around tidal inlets. The most stable Gulf beaches are along the west coast of Florida where low wave energy and frequent beach nourishment minimize erosion. Some beach segments in Texas have accreted as a result of net longshore drift convergence, and around tidal inlets that have been stabilized by long jetties. Seawalls and riprap revetments were constructed in all the Gulf Coast states as initial community responses to long-term beach erosion. Although some states, such as Florida, still permit shoreline stabilization structures, beach nourishment has become the preferred method of mitigating long-term erosion.

Open-File Report↗

National Assessment Of Shoreline Change: Part 2, Historical Shoreline Changes And Associated Coastal Land Loss Along The U.S. Southeast Atlantic Coast

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Beach erosion is a chronic problem along most open-ocean shores of the United States. As coastal populations continue to grow and community infrastructures are threatened by erosion, there is increased demand for accurate information regarding past and present trends and rates of shoreline movement. There is also a need for a comprehensive analysis of shoreline movement that is consistent from one coastal region to another. To meet these national needs, the U.S. Geological Survey is conducting an analysis of historical shoreline changes along open-ocean sandy shores of the conterminous United States and parts of Hawaii and Alaska. One purpose of this work is to develop standard repeatable methods for mapping and analyzing shoreline movement so that periodic updates regarding coastal erosion and land loss can be made nationally that are systematic and internally consistent. This report on states comprising the Southeast Atlantic Coast (east Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina) represents the second in a series that already includes the Gulf of Mexico and will eventually include the Northeast Atlantic Coast, Pacific Coast, and parts of Hawaii and Alaska. The report summarizes the methods of analysis, interprets the results, provides explanations regarding the historical and present trends and rates of change, and describes how different coastal communities are responding to coastal erosion. Shoreline change evaluations are based on comparing three historical shorelines with a recent shoreline derived from lidar (Light Detection and Ranging) topographic surveys. The historical shorelines generally represent the following periods: 1800s, 1920s-1930s, and 1970s, whereas the lidar shoreline is 1998-2002. Long-term rates of change are calculated using four shorelines (1800s to lidar shoreline), whereas short-term rates of change are calculated for the most recent period (1970s to lidar shoreline). The historical rates of change presented in this report represent past conditions and therefore are not intended for predicting future shoreline positions or rates of change. Rates of erosion for the Southeast Atlantic region were generally highest in South Carolina along barrier islands and headland shores associated with the Santee delta. Erosion was also rapid along some barrier islands in North Carolina. Highest rates of erosion in Florida were generally localized around tidal inlets. The most stable Southeast Atlantic beaches were along the east coast of Florida where low wave energy and frequent beach nourishment minimized erosion. Some beach segments in Florida accreted as a result of net longshore drift convergence around Cape Canaveral and around tidal inlets that were stabilized by jetties. Seawalls, riprap revetments, and groins were constructed in all the Southeast Atlantic states as initial community responses to long-term beach erosion. Although some states, such as Florida, still permit shoreline stabilization structures, beach nourishment has become the preferred method of mitigating long-term erosion. Beach nourishment is common in all of the Southeast Atlantic states except Georgia.

southeast Atlantic coast↗

Three-dimensional seismic velocity model for the Cascadia Subduction Zone with shallow soils and topography, version 1.7

The U.S. Geological Survey’s seismic velocity model for the Cascadia Subduction Zone provides P- and S-wave velocity ( V P and V S , respectively) information from 40.2° to 50.0° N. latitude and −129.0° to −121.0° W. longitude, and is used to support a variety of research topics, including three-dimensional (3D) earthquake simulations and seismic hazard assessment in the Pacific Northwest. This report describes an update to the previous version (v) 1.6 of the 3D seismic velocity model for the Cascadia Subduction Zone. This new model (herein referred to as v1.7) contains more detailed near-surface structure for improved earthquake ground motion modeling. Updated features include the addition of a new shallow soil velocity model in the top few hundred meters and the option of adding user-specified topography. Although v1.6 of the Cascadia seismic velocity model has a minimum V S of 600 meters per second (m/s), the new model (v1.7) has a minimum V S of approximately 40 m/s. Overall, this update will allow for more accurate ground motion estimates from 3D simulations of scenario earthquakes in the Cascadia Subduction Zone region.

British Columbia, California, Oregon, Washington↗

Conceptual understanding and groundwater quality of selected basin-fill aquifers in the Southwestern United States

The National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) Program of the U.S. Geological Survey has been conducting a regional analysis of water quality in the principal aquifer systems in the southwestern United States (hereinafter, “Southwest”) since 2005. Part of the NAWQA Program, the objective of the Southwest Principal Aquifers (SWPA) study is to develop a better understanding of water quality in basin-fill aquifers in the region by synthesizing information from case studies of 15 basins into a common set of important natural and human-related factors found to affect groundwater quality. The synthesis consists of three major components: 1. Summary of current knowledge about the groundwater systems, and the status of, changes in, and influential factors affecting quality of groundwater in basin-fill aquifers in 15 basins previously studied by NAWQA (this report). 2. Development of a conceptual model of the primary natural and human-related factors commonly affecting groundwater quality, thereby building a regional understanding of the susceptibility and vulnerability of basin-fill aquifers to contaminants. 3. Development of statistical models that relate the concentration or occurrence of specific chemical constituents in groundwater to natural and human-related factors linked to the susceptibility and vulnerability of basin-fill aquifers to contamination. Basin-fill aquifers occur in about 200,000 mi 2 of the 410,000 mi 2 SWPA study area and are the primary source of groundwater supply for cities and agricultural communities. Four of the principal aquifers or aquifer systems of the United States are included in the basin-fill aquifers of the study area: (1) the Basin and Range basin-fill aquifers in California, Nevada, Utah, and Arizona; (2) the Rio Grande aquifer system in New Mexico and Colorado; (3) the California Coastal Basin aquifers; and (4) the Central Valley aquifer system in California. Because of the generally limited availability of surface-water supplies in the arid to semiarid climate, cultural and economic activities in the Southwest are particularly dependent on supplies of good-quality groundwater. Irrigation and public-supply withdrawals from basin-fill aquifers in the study area account for about one quarter of the total withdrawals from all aquifers in the United States. Many factors influence the quality of groundwater in the 15 case-study basins, but some common factors emerge from the basin summaries presented in this report. These factors include the chemical composition of the recharge water, consolidated rock geology and composition of aquifer materials derived from consolidated rock, and land and water use. The major water-quality issues in many of the developed case-study basins are increased concentrations of dissolved solids, nitrate, and VOCs in groundwater as a result of human activities. The information presented and the citations listed in this report serve as a resource for those interested in the groundwater-flow systems in the NAWQA case-study basins. The summaries of water-development history, hydrogeology, conceptual understanding of the groundwater system under both predevelopment and modern conditions, and effects of natural and human-related factors on groundwater quality presented in the sections on each basin also serve as a foundation for the synthesis and modeling phases of the SWPA regional study.

Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico,↗

Are inland wolf-ungulate systems influenced by marine subsidies of Pacific salmon?

Wolves ( Canis lupus ) in North America are considered obligate predators of ungulates with other food resources playing little role in wolf population dynamics or wolf–prey relations. However, spawning Pacific salmon (Oncorhyncus spp.) are common throughout wolf range in northwestern North America and may provide a marine subsidy affecting inland wolf–ungulate food webs far from the coast. We conducted stable‐isotope analyses for nitrogen and carbon to evaluate the contribution of salmon to diets of wolves in Denali National Park and Preserve, 1200 river‐km from tidewater in interior Alaska, USA. We analyzed bone collagen from 73 wolves equipped with radio collars during 1986–2002 and evaluated estimates of salmon in their diets relative to the availability of salmon and ungulates within their home ranges. We compared wolf densities and ungulate : wolf ratios among regions with differing salmon and ungulate availability to assess subsidizing effects of salmon on these wolf–ungulate systems. Wolves in the northwestern flats of the study area had access to spawning salmon but low ungulate availability and consumed more salmon (17% ± 7% [mean ± SD]) than in upland regions, where ungulates were sixfold more abundant and wolves did or did not have salmon spawning areas within their home ranges (8% ± 6% and 3% ± 3%, respectively). Wolves were only 17% less abundant on the northwestern flats compared to the remainder of the study area, even though ungulate densities were 78% lower. We estimated that biomass from fall runs of chum (O. keta) and coho (O. kisutch) salmon on the northwestern flats was comparable to the ungulate biomass there, and the contribution of salmon to wolf diets was similar to estimates reported for coastal wolves in southeast Alaska. Given the ubiquitous consumption of salmon by wolves on the northwestern flats and the abundance of salmon there, we conclude that wolf numbers in this region were enhanced by the allochthonous subsidy provided by salmon and discuss implications for wolf–ungulate relations.

Ecological Applications↗

Predicted surface displacements for scenario earthquakes in the San Francisco Bay region

In the immediate aftermath of a major earthquake, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) will be called upon to provide information on the characteristics of the event to emergency responders and the media. One such piece of information is the expected surface displacement due to the earthquake. In conducting probabilistic hazard analyses for the San Francisco Bay Region, the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP) identified a series of scenario earthquakes involving the major faults of the region, and these were used in their 2003 report (hereafter referred to as WG03) and the recently released 2008 Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF). Here I present a collection of maps depicting the expected surface displacement resulting from those scenario earthquakes. The USGS has conducted frequent Global Positioning System (GPS) surveys throughout northern California for nearly two decades, generating a solid baseline of interseismic measurements. Following an earthquake, temporary GPS deployments at these sites will be important to augment the spatial coverage provided by continuous GPS sites for recording postseismic deformation, as will the acquisition of Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) scenes. The information provided in this report allows one to anticipate, for a given event, where the largest displacements are likely to occur. This information is valuable both for assessing the need for further spatial densification of GPS coverage before an event and prioritizing sites to resurvey and InSAR data to acquire in the immediate aftermath of the earthquake. In addition, these maps are envisioned to be a resource for scientists in communicating with emergency responders and members of the press, particularly during the time immediately after a major earthquake before displacements recorded by continuous GPS stations are available.

Open-File Report↗

Shoreface and Holocene sediment thickness offshore of Rockaway Peninsula, New York

During September and October 2019, the U.S. Geological Survey mapped the shoreface and inner continental shelf offshore of the Rockaway Peninsula in New York using high-resolution chirp seismic reflection and single-beam bathymetry geophysical techniques. The results from this study are important for assessing the Quaternary evolution of the Rockaway Peninsula and determining coastal sediment availability, which is crucial for establishing sediment budgets, understanding sediment dispersal, and managing coastlines. This report presents preliminary interpretations of seismic profiles and maps of shoreface and Holocene sediment thickness from the shoreline to about 2 kilometers offshore. The results indicate that shoreface and Holocene sediment thickness demonstrates zonal variability because of underlying geology and sediment availability. Based on geomorphic features and underlying stratigraphy, the study area is separated into west, west-central, east-central, and east zones. Holocene sediment, which includes the shoreface and seafloor features with positive morphology (for example, nearshore bars, ebb-tide deltas, and sorted bedforms), thickens to the west and may be related to accommodation and westward dip of the regional unconformity. Shoreface units, which are thought to represent the active volume of littoral sediment, are thickest in the west-central peninsula where the geologic base of the shoreface is deeper. Shoreface units with moderate thickness are in the western and eastern peninsula where there are positive morphological features (for example, deposits accumulating updrift from the jetty, ebb-tide deltas, and so on). The thinnest shorefaces are in the east-central Rockaway Peninsula because of less accommodation caused by the shoaling regional unconformity.

New York↗

Contributions of erosion, deposition, and human activities to a change in sand storage in the bed of San Francisco Bay, California, 1980s to 2010s

This study by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) provides estimates of the change in sand storage in bed sediments from the 1980s to 2010s in the San Francisco Bay area, California. The study is part of a larger project called “Research to Understand Impacts of Bay Sand Mining on Sand Transport in San Francisco Bay and the Outer Coast” that has the goal of providing information for the California Coastal Conservancy to inform decision making regarding sand mining activities. Information from this study will contribute to the sand budget for the San Francisco Bay system by accounting for sand made available by erosion of bay sediment and sequestered by deposition in the bay. Sediment budgets for estuaries typically account for change in sediment storage in the bed without discriminating for sediment size. However, the physics of mud and sand erosion, deposition, and transport differ. Sediment budgets that treat mud and sand separately give a more complete understanding of the system, including how human activities related to sediment size, such as sand mining, affect the system. We used bathymetric change analysis in combination with a three-dimensional model to generate estimates of net change in sand storage within the San Francisco Bay floor. We document sediment volume change from a 1980s bathymetric surface to a 2010s bathymetric surface, in combination with information on the sand content of the bed sediment derived from sediment cores and surface samples from six different sediment studies, to estimate the net change in sand volume in the bed of San Francisco Bay. This analysis includes areas heavily affected by human activities (such as sand mining, dredging, and sediment disposal) as well as regions more representative of natural transport processes. Overall, the sediment bed of San Francisco Bay is losing sand. Across the total area surveyed in San Francisco Bay, including areas affected by natural processes, oyster shell beds, and human activities, a net loss of about 17 million cubic meters (Mm 3 ) of sand from the sediment bed occurred from the 1980s to 2010s, at a rate of about 0.8 Mm 3 per year. For the period of this study, sand loss from bed level changes in permitted sand-lease mining areas (about 11 Mm 3 ) accounts for about two-thirds of the total sand loss throughout the study area. It is important to consider potential uncertainty bounds when interpreting these findings. A key part of the report is an assessment of the uncertainties in our estimates of sand volumes. We estimate that variability in modeled sand content values of Bay floor sediments could result in an uncertainty of approximately 25 percent of the net sand volume change. Even larger uncertainty amounts may be associated with uncertainty in the systematic errors in the bathymetric surveys. Further refining estimates of uncertainty in bathymetric change is important in guiding the use of this study. The results presented here can fill a critical gap that may enable the creation of the first comprehensive sand budget of San Francisco Bay.

California↗

National Streamflow Information Program: Implementation Status Report

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) operates and maintains a nationwide network of about 7,500 streamgages designed to provide and interpret long-term, accurate, and unbiased streamflow information to meet the multiple needs of many diverse national, regional, state, and local users. The National Streamflow Information Program (NSIP) was initiated in 2003 in response to Congressional and stakeholder concerns about (1) the decrease in the number of operating streamgages, including a disproportionate loss of streamgages with a long period of record; (2) the inability of the USGS to continue operating high-priority streamgages in an environment of reduced funding through partnerships; and (3) the increasing demand for streamflow information due to emerging resource-management issues and new data-delivery capabilities. The NSIP's mission is to provide the streamflow information and understanding required to meet national, regional, state, and local needs. Most of the existing streamgages are funded through partnerships with more than 850 other Federal, state, tribal, and local agencies. Currently, about 90 percent of the streamgages send data to the World Wide Web in near-real time (some information is transmitted within 15 minutes, whereas some lags by about 4 hours). The streamflow information collected at USGS streamgages is used for many purposes: *In water-resource appraisals and allocations - to determine how much water is available and how it is being allocated; *To provide streamflow information required by interstate agreements, compacts, and court decrees; *For engineering design of reservoirs, bridges, roads, culverts, and treatment plants; *For the operation of reservoirs, the operation of locks and dams for navigation purposes, and power production; *To identify changes in streamflow resulting from changes in land use, water use, and climate; *For streamflow forecasting, flood planning, and flood forecasting; *To support water-quality programs by allowing determination of constituent loads and fluxes; and *For characterizing and evaluating instream conditions for habitat assessments, instream-flow requirements, and recreation.

Fact Sheet↗

The quality of our nation’s waters: Quality of water from domestic wells in principal aquifers of the United States, 1991–2004— Overview of major findings

More than 43 million people - about 15 percent of the U.S. population - rely on domestic wells as their source of drinking water (Hutson and others, 2004). The quality and safety of water from domestic wells, also known as private wells, are not regulated by the Federal Safe Drinking Water Act or, in most cases, by state laws. Rather, individual homeowners are responsible for maintaining their domestic well systems and for monitoring water quality. The lack of regular monitoring of domestic wells makes periodic assessments at national, regional, and local scales important sources for providing information about this key source of drinking water. This study from the National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) Program of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) assesses water-quality conditions for about 2,100 domestic wells. The sampled wells are located in 48 states and in parts of 30 regionally extensive aquifers used for water supply in the United States. As many as 219 properties and contaminants, including pH, major ions, nutrients, trace elements, radon, pesticides, and volatile organic compounds (VOCs), were measured. Fecal indicator bacteria and additional radionuclides were analyzed for a smaller number of wells. The large number of contaminants assessed and the broad geographic coverage of the present study provides a foundation for an improved understanding of the quality of water from the major aquifers tapped by domestic supply wells in the United States.

Circular↗

Challenge theme 5: Current and future needs of energy and mineral resources in the Borderlands and the effects of their development: Chapter 7 in United States-Mexican Borderlands: Facing tomorrow's challenges through USGS science

Exploration and extraction activities related to energy and mineral resources in the Borderlands—such as coal-fired power plants, offshore drilling, and mining—can create issues that have potentially major economic and environmental implications. Resource assessments and development projects, environmental studies, and other related evaluations help to understand some of these issues, such as power plant emissions and the erosion/denudation of abandoned mine lands. Information from predictive modeling, monitoring, and environmental assessments are necessary to understand the full effects of energy and mineral exploration, development, and utilization. The exploitation of these resources can negatively affect human health and the environment, its natural resources, and its ecological services (air, water, soil, recreation, wildlife, etc.). This chapter describes the major energy and mineral issues of the Borderlands and how geologic frameworks, integrated interdisciplinary (geobiologic) investigations, and other related studies can address the anticipated increases in demands on natural resources in the region.

United States-Mexico Borderlands↗

The U.S. Geological Survey National Water Quality Network—Surface Water—2023

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Water Quality Network for surface water (NWQN-SW) was established in 2013 to develop long-term, comparable assessments of surface-water quality in support of national, regional, state, and local needs related to water-quality management and policy. Waterquality samples are collected at each site and measured for a variety of parameters. In 2023, the NWQN-SW consisted of 109 sites, each of them paired with a streamgage, operated by the USGS or other agencies that provide continuous information on streamflow conditions. The waterquality data and the streamflow information from the NWQN-SW is then used to assess the status and trends of water-quality conditions and potential impacts on human and aquatic health.

General Information Product↗

Geomorphic map of Worcester County, Maryland, interpreted from a LIDAR-based, digital elevation model

A recently compiled mosaic of a LIDAR-based digital elevation model (DEM) is presented with geomorphic analysis of new macro-topographic details. The geologic framework of the surficial and near surface late Cenozoic deposits of the central uplands, Pocomoke River valley, and the Atlantic Coast includes Cenozoic to recent sediments from fluvial, estuarine, and littoral depositional environments. Extensive Pleistocene (cold climate) sandy dune fields are deposited over much of the terraced landscape. The macro details from the LIDAR image reveal 2 meter-scale resolution of details of the shapes of individual dunes, and fields of translocated sand sheets. Most terrace surfaces are overprinted with circular to elliptical rimmed basins that represent complex histories of ephemeral ponds that were formed, drained, and overprinted by younger basins. The terrains of composite ephemeral ponds and the dune fields are inter-shingled at their margins indicating contemporaneous erosion, deposition, and re-arrangement and possible internal deformation of the surficial deposits. The aggregate of these landform details and their deposits are interpreted as the products of arid, cold climate processes that were common to the mid-Atlantic region during the Last Glacial Maximum. In the Pocomoke valley and its larger tributaries, erosional remnants of sandy flood plains with anastomosing channels indicate the dynamics of former hydrology and sediment load of the watershed that prevailed at the end of the Pleistocene. As the climate warmed and precipitation increased during the transition from late Pleistocene to Holocene, dune fields were stabilized by vegetation, and the stream discharge increased. The increased discharge and greater local relief of streams graded to lower sea levels stimulated down cutting and created the deeply incised valleys out onto the continental shelf. These incised valleys have been filling with fluvial to intertidal deposits that record the rising sea level and warmer, more humid climate in the mid-Atlantic region throughout the Holocene. Thus, the geomorphic details provided by the new LIDAR DEM actually record the response of the landscape to abrupt climate change. Holocene trends and land-use patterns from Colonial to modern times can also be interpreted from the local macro- scale details of the landscape. Beyond the obvious utility of these data for land-use planning and assessments of resources and hazards, the new map presents new details on the impact of climate changes on a mid-latitude, outer Coastal plain landscape.

Maryland↗

U.S. Geological Survey Assessment 2000: Estimates of undiscovered oil and gas resources for the world

Worldwide supply of oil and natural gas is ultimately linked to the geologic abundance and distribution of those fossil fuels. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has completed a new assessment of the technically recoverable undiscovered oil and gas resources of the world. Nearly 1000 provinces were defined and known petroleum resources exist in 406 of these. A total of 76 priority provinces, containing over 95 percent of the world's known oil and gas, and 52 'boutique', or prospective, provinces were assessed. Based upon our initial analyses, several observations are clear. First, our estimates of total undiscovered technically recoverable petroleum (oil, natural gas, natural gas liquids) resources do not differ greatly (+9.5 percent) from the world totals determined in the 1994 USGS world assessment. However, our estimates of undiscovered oil are up considerably (+24.3 percent), and the regional distribution differs significantly from previous estimates. Secondly, estimates of global undiscovered natural gas resources are smaller than previously estimated (-10.4 percent), largely due to reduced estimates for the former Soviet Union, and natural gas liquids resources are significantly larger than previous estimates because co-product ratio calculations were included in this assessment. In addition, mean estimates of field growth of known oil and gas fields will likely approximate quantities of undiscovered resources and are a critical component of any analysis of world oil and gas supply.

Minerals and Energy - Raw Materials Report↗

Water supply in the conterminous United States, Alaska, Hawaii, and Puerto Rico, water years 2010–20

We present an assessment of water supply across the conterminous United States (CONUS), Alaska, Hawaii, and Puerto Rico covering water years 2010–20. Our analysis drew on two national hydrologic models, the National Hydrologic Model Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System and the Weather Research and Forecasting model hydrologic modeling system. Both models produced estimates of streamflow, evapotranspiration, soil moisture, snow water equivalent, and other hydrologic states and fluxes. The models were driven by the bias-adjusted 4-kilometer-resolution, long-term regional hydroclimate simulation over the conterminous United States dataset (CONUS404). We assessed spatial and temporal error distributions by comparing monthly simulations at the 12-digit hydrologic unit code and regional scale from both models against external benchmarking datasets. Results showed that average annual rainfall across the CONUS was 857 millimeters per year for the period of analysis, with water year 2012 the driest year (729 millimeters) and water year 2019 the wettest year (995 millimeters). Key interannual variability results included the following: (1) the California–Nevada hydrologic region had the highest variability in precipitation and snow accumulation, and (2) the Texas hydrologic region was among hydrologic regions with the highest variability in precipitation. We related interannual variability in precipitation to storage volumes in soil moisture, snow water equivalent, and lakes and reservoirs to highlight areas with little storage and large year-to-year variability in precipitation. These areas included the Southern High Plains, Central High Plains, Texas, Souris–Red–Rainy, Mississippi Embayment, and Midwest regions. Our analysis of groundwater-level data showed that several of these areas overlap aquifers where groundwater levels were considerably lower than historical averages, including the Colorado Plateaus aquifers, the Rio Grande aquifer system, and the Central and Southern regions of the High Plains aquifer. Many of these lowered groundwater levels are continuations of decades-long declines from overpumping that started well before the assessment period. The resulting water budgets and their analyses provide a high-resolution foundational assessment of the mean state and variability of the terrestrial hydrologic cycle across the CONUS and Alaska, Hawaii, and Puerto Rico to support a wide range of water resource management applications.

Professional Paper↗

Hydrogeochemical studies of historical mining areas in the Humboldt River basin and adjacent areas, northern Nevada

The study area comprises the Humboldt River Basin and adjacent areas, with emphasis on mining areas relatively close to the Humboldt River. The basin comprises about 16,840 mi2 or 10,800,000 acres. The mineral resources of the Humboldt Basin have been investigated by many scientists over the past 100 years, but only recently has our knowledge of regional geology and mine geology been applied to the understanding and evaluation of mining effects on water and environmental quality. The investigations reported here apply some of the techniques and perspectives developed in the Abandoned Mine Lands Initiative (AMLI) of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), a program of integrated geological-hydrological-biological-chemical studies underway in the Upper Animas River watershed in Colorado and the Boulder River watershed in, Montana. The goal of my studies of sites and districts is to determine the character of mining-related contamination that is actively or potentially a threat to water quality and to estimate the potential for natural attenuation of that contamination. These geology-based studies and recommendations differ in matters of emphasis and data collection from the biology-based assessments that are the cornerstone of environmental regulations.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Application of nonlinear-regression methods to a ground-water flow model of the Albuquerque Basin, New Mexico

This report documents the application of nonlinear-regression methods to a numerical model of ground-water flow in the Albuquerque Basin, New Mexico. In the Albuquerque Basin, ground water is the primary source for most water uses. Ground-water withdrawal has steadily increased since the 1940's, resulting in large declines in water levels in the Albuquerque area. A ground-water flow model was developed in 1994 and revised and updated in 1995 for the purpose of managing basin ground- water resources. In the work presented here, nonlinear-regression methods were applied to a modified version of the previous flow model. Goals of this work were to use regression methods to calibrate the model with each of six different configurations of the basin subsurface and to assess and compare optimal parameter estimates, model fit, and model error among the resulting calibrations. The Albuquerque Basin is one in a series of north trending structural basins within the Rio Grande Rift, a region of Cenozoic crustal extension. Mountains, uplifts, and fault zones bound the basin, and rock units within the basin include pre-Santa Fe Group deposits, Tertiary Santa Fe Group basin fill, and post-Santa Fe Group volcanics and sediments. The Santa Fe Group is greater than 14,000 feet (ft) thick in the central part of the basin. During deposition of the Santa Fe Group, crustal extension resulted in development of north trending normal faults with vertical displacements of as much as 30,000 ft. Ground-water flow in the Albuquerque Basin occurs primarily in the Santa Fe Group and post-Santa Fe Group deposits. Water flows between the ground-water system and surface-water bodies in the inner valley of the basin, where the Rio Grande, a network of interconnected canals and drains, and Cochiti Reservoir are located. Recharge to the ground-water flow system occurs as infiltration of precipitation along mountain fronts and infiltration of stream water along tributaries to the Rio Grande; subsurface flow from adjacent regions; irrigation and septic field seepage; and leakage through the Rio Grande, canal, and Cochiti Reservoir beds. Ground water is discharged from the basin by withdrawal; evapotranspiration; subsurface flow; and flow to the Rio Grande, canals, and drains. The transient, three-dimensional numerical model of ground-water flow to which nonlinear-regression methods were applied simulates flow in the Albuquerque Basin from 1900 to March 1995. Six different basin subsurface configurations are considered in the model. These configurations are designed to test the effects of (1) varying the simulated basin thickness, (2) including a hypothesized hydrogeologic unit with large hydraulic conductivity in the western part of the basin (the west basin high-K zone), and (3) substantially lowering the simulated hydraulic conductivity of a fault in the western part of the basin (the low-K fault zone). The model with each of the subsurface configurations was calibrated using a nonlinear least- squares regression technique. The calibration data set includes 802 hydraulic-head measurements that provide broad spatial and temporal coverage of basin conditions, and one measurement of net flow from the Rio Grande and drains to the ground-water system in the Albuquerque area. Data are weighted on the basis of estimates of the standard deviations of measurement errors. The 10 to 12 parameters to which the calibration data as a whole are generally most sensitive were estimated by nonlinear regression, whereas the remaining model parameter values were specified. Results of model calibration indicate that the optimal parameter estimates as a whole are most reasonable in calibrations of the model with with configurations 3 (which contains 1,600-ft-thick basin deposits and the west basin high-K zone), 4 (which contains 5,000-ft-thick basin de

New Mexico↗

Preliminary assessment of the effects of selenium in agricultural drainage on fish in the San Joaquin Valley

Concentrations of total selenium were measured in whole-body samples of seven fishes from the Sacramento and San Joaquin River systems and the San Francisco Bay complex. Concentrations of selenium (up to 11 µ g/g dry weight in whole-body composite samples) were highest in fish from canals and sloughs in the Grassland Water District (Grasslands) that received large inflows of subsurface agricultural drainage water. Slightly lower selenium concentrations occurred in fish from the San Joaquin River immediately downstream from tributaries draining the Grasslands. Although circumstantial evidence suggests that selenium-sensitive species such as bluegills and largemouth bass are being excluded from the Grasslands, conclusive evidence of selenium toxicity is still lacking. In response to earlier reports of high concentrations of selenium in several species collected from the Grasslands, the California Department of Health Services has urged people to limit consumption of fish from this region.

Book chapter↗