Contributions of erosion, deposition, and human activities to a change in sand storage in the bed of San Francisco Bay, California, 1980s to 2010s

Abstract

This study by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) provides estimates of the change in sand storage in bed sediments from the 1980s to 2010s in the San Francisco Bay area, California. The study is part of a larger project called “Research to Understand Impacts of Bay Sand Mining on Sand Transport in San Francisco Bay and the Outer Coast” that has the goal of providing information for the California Coastal Conservancy to inform decision making regarding sand mining activities. Information from this study will contribute to the sand budget for the San Francisco Bay system by accounting for sand made available by erosion of bay sediment and sequestered by deposition in the bay. Sediment budgets for estuaries typically account for change in sediment storage in the bed without discriminating for sediment size. However, the physics of mud and sand erosion, deposition, and transport differ. Sediment budgets that treat mud and sand separately give a more complete understanding of the system, including how human activities related to sediment size, such as sand mining, affect the system. We used bathymetric change analysis in combination with a three-dimensional model to generate estimates of net change in sand storage within the San Francisco Bay floor. We document sediment volume change from a 1980s bathymetric surface to a 2010s bathymetric surface, in combination with information on the sand content of the bed sediment derived from sediment cores and surface samples from six different sediment studies, to estimate the net change in sand volume in the bed of San Francisco Bay. This analysis includes areas heavily affected by human activities (such as sand mining, dredging, and sediment disposal) as well as regions more representative of natural transport processes. Overall, the sediment bed of San Francisco Bay is losing sand. Across the total area surveyed in San Francisco Bay, including areas affected by natural processes, oyster shell beds, and human activities, a net loss of about 17 million cubic meters (Mm 3 ) of sand from the sediment bed occurred from the 1980s to 2010s, at a rate of about 0.8 Mm 3 per year. For the period of this study, sand loss from bed level changes in permitted sand-lease mining areas (about 11 Mm 3 ) accounts for about two-thirds of the total sand loss throughout the study area. It is important to consider potential uncertainty bounds when interpreting these findings. A key part of the report is an assessment of the uncertainties in our estimates of sand volumes. We estimate that variability in modeled sand content values of Bay floor sediments could result in an uncertainty of approximately 25 percent of the net sand volume change. Even larger uncertainty amounts may be associated with uncertainty in the systematic errors in the bathymetric surveys. Further refining estimates of uncertainty in bathymetric change is important in guiding the use of this study. The results presented here can fill a critical gap that may enable the creation of the first comprehensive sand budget of San Francisco Bay.