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At least 1,189 records · Page 66Linked to original sources
USGS2024

Pre-fire assessment of post-fire debris flow hazards in the Santa Fe Municipal Watershed

Background Wildfires are increasing in size and severity due to climate change combined with overstocked forests. Fire increases the likelihood of debris flows, posing significant threats to life, property, and water supplies. Aims We conducted a debris-flow hazard assessment of the Santa Fe Municipal Watershed (SFMW) to answer two questions: (1) where are debris flows most likely to occur; and (2) how much debris might they produce? We also document the influence of fuel treatments on fire severity and debris flows. Methods We modelled post-fire debris-flow likelihood and volume in 103 sub-basins for 2-year, 5-year, and Probable Maximum Precipitation rainfalls following modelled low-, moderate-, and high-severity wildfires. Key results Post-fire debris-flow likelihoods were >90% in all but the lowest fire and rain scenarios. Sub-basins with fuel treatments had the lowest burn severities, debris-flow likelihoods, and sediment volumes, but treatment effects decreased with increased fire severity and rain intensity. Conclusions Post-fire debris flows with varying debris volumes are likely to occur following wildfire in the SFMW, but fuel treatments can reduce likelihood and volume. Implications Future post-fire debris flows will continue to threaten water supplies, but fuel reduction treatments and debris-flow mitigation provide opportunities to minimise effects.

New Mexico↗
USGS2020

Latitudinal variation in snowshoe hare (Lepus americanus) body mass: A test of Bergmann’s Rule

The relationship between body size and latitude have been the focus of dozens of studies across many species. However, results of testing Bergmann’s Rule – that organisms in colder climates or at higher latitudes possess larger body sizes – have been inconsistent across studies. We investigated whether snowshoe hares (Lepus americanus) follow the Rule by investigating differences in body mass using data from six published studies and from data of 755 individual hares captured from ten populations across North America covering 26° of latitude. We also explored alternative hypotheses related to variation in hare body mass, including winter severity, length of growing season, elevation, and snow depth. We found body mass of hares varied throughout their range, but the drivers of body mass differed based on geographic location. Females in northern populations followed Bergmann’s rule, whereas males did not. In northern populations male mass was related to average snow depth. In contrast, in southern populations body mass of both sexes was related to length of the growing season. These differences likely represent variation in the drivers of selection. Specifically, in the north, a large body size is beneficial to conserve heat because of low winter temperatures, whereas in the south, it is likely due to increased food supply associated with longer growing seasons.

Canadian Journal of Zoology↗
USGS2021

Genomic signatures of thermal adaptation are associated with clinal shifts of life history in a broadly distributed frog

Temperature is a critical driver of ectotherm life-history strategies, whereby a warmer environment is associated with increased growth, reduced longevity and accelerated senescence. Increasing evidence indicates that thermal adaptation may underlie such life-history shifts in wild populations. Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and copy number variants (CNVs) can help uncover the molecular mechanisms of temperature-driven variation in growth, longevity and senescence. However, our understanding of these mechanisms is still limited, which reduces our ability to predict the response of non-model ectotherms to global temperature change. In this study, we examined the potential role of thermal adaptation in clinal shifts of life-history traits (i.e. life span, senescence rate and recruitment) in the Columbia spotted frog Rana luteiventris along a broad temperature gradient in the western United States. We took advantage of extensive capture–recapture datasets of 20,033 marked individuals from eight populations surveyed annually for 14–18 years to examine how mean annual temperature and precipitation influenced demographic parameters (i.e. adult survival, life span, senescence rate, recruitment and population growth). After showing that temperature was the main climatic predictor influencing demography, we used RAD-seq data (50,829 SNPs and 6,599 putative CNVs) generated for 352 individuals from 31 breeding sites to identify the genomic signatures of thermal adaptation. Our results showed that temperature was negatively associated with annual adult survival and reproductive life span and positively associated with senescence rate. By contrast, recruitment increased with temperature, promoting the long-term viability of most populations. These temperature-dependent demographic changes were associated with strong genomic signatures of thermal adaptation. We identified 148 SNP candidates associated with temperature including three SNPs located within protein-coding genes regulating resistance to cold and hypoxia, immunity and reproduction in ranids. We also identified 39 CNV candidates (including within 38 transposable elements) for which normalized read depth was associated with temperature. Our study indicates that both SNPs and structural variants are associated with temperature and could eventually be found to play a functional role in clinal shifts in senescence rate and life-history strategies in R. luteiventris . These results highlight the potential role of different sources of molecular variation in the response of ectotherms to environmental temperature variation in the context of global warming.

Journal of Animal Ecology↗
USGS2006

Patch size and landscape effects on density and nesting success of grassland birds

Current management recommendations for grassland birds in North America emphasize providing large patches of grassland habitat within landscapes that have few forest or shrubland areas. These Bird Conservation Areas are being proposed under the assumption that large patches of habitat in treeless landscapes will maintain viable populations of grassland birds. This assumption requires that patch size and landscape features affect density and nesting success of grassland birds, and that these effects are consistent among years and regions and across focal species. However, these assumptions have not yet been validated for grassland birds, and the relative importance of local vegetation structure, patch size, and landscape composition on grassland bird populations is not well known. In addition, factors influencing grassland bird nesting success have been investigated mostly in small-scale and short-duration studies. To develop management guidelines for grassland birds, we tested the spatial and temporal repeatability of the influence of patch size and landscape composition on density and nesting success of 3 grassland passerines, after controlling for local-scale vegetation structure, climate, and—when analyzing nest success—bird density. We conducted our study during 4 years (1998–2001) in 44 study plots that were set up in 3 regions of the northern tallgrass prairie in Minnesota and North Dakota, USA. In these study plots we measured density and nesting success of clay-colored sparrows ( Spizella pallida ), Savannah sparrows ( Passerculus sandwichensis ), and bobolinks ( Dolichonyx oryzivorus ). Statistical models indicated that density was influenced by patch size, landscape, region, and local vegetation structure more so than by local vegetation structure alone. Both magnitude and direction of the response of density to patch size varied among regions, years, and species. In contrast, the direction of landscape effects was consistent among regions, years, and between Savannah sparrows and bobolinks. In each species, this landscape effect was independent of patch size. Nesting success was not clearly influenced by patch size or landscape composition, and none of the factors that influenced avian density also influenced nesting success in any of the 3 species. General statements on “optimal habitat” for grassland birds should therefore be viewed cautiously. Instead, long-term studies in different regions as well as a deeper understanding of the local system are needed to determine which factors are most important for grassland birds in a particular area.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗
USGS2013

High-density grass carp stocking effects on a reservoir invasive plant and water quality

Stocking grass carp [Ctenopharyngodon idella (Valenciennes)] is a commonly applied technique to control nuisance aquatic vegetation in reservoirs. Factors that influence the degree of aquatic vegetation control are fish stocking density, regional climate, abundance and species composition of the aquatic plant community, and relative grass carp feeding preferences for plant species. We evaluated high-density grass carp stocking in a southeastern U.S. reservoir for control of parrot-feather [Myriophyllum aquaticum (Vell) Verdc.], an invasive aquatic plant that is not preferentially consumed by grass carp and the associated effects on water quality. Lookout Shoals Lake, a 528-ha piedmont North Carolina reservoir, was stocked with triploid grass carp at a density of 100 fish per vegetated hectare. Parrot-feather biomass in the lake was significantly reduced three months after grass carp stocking, compared to biomass in in-situ exclosures. During the second year after grass carp stocking, parrot-feather biomass in the lake compared to biomass in in-situ exclosures indicated continued control, but unexplained lack of growth within most experimental exclosures precluded biomass analyses. Increases in ambient water chlorophyll a, reactive phosphorus, and nitrate-nitrite concentrations were measured after grass carp stocking. The biological significance of observed changes in water chemistry and long-term effects on lake biota remain undetermined. Our results demonstrate that intensive grass carp stocking can control an invasive aquatic plant that is not preferentially consumed by grass carp and reveal associated changes in water quality.

North Carolina↗
USGS2010

Carbon, water, and energy fluxes in a semiarid cold desert grassland during and following multiyear drought

The net exchanges of carbon dioxide, water vapor, and energy were examined in a perennial Colorado Plateau grassland for 5 years. The study began within a multiyear drought and continued as the drought ended. The grassland is located near the northern boundary of the influence of the North American monsoon, a major climatic feature bringing summer rain. Following rain, evapotranspiration peaked above 8 mm d -1 but was usually much smaller (2-4 mm d -1 ). Net productivity of the grassland was low compared to other ecosystems, with peak hourly net CO 2 uptake in the spring of 4 (mu or u)mol m -2 s -1 and springtime carbon gain in the range of 42 + or - 11 g C m -2 (based on fluxes) to 72 + or - 55 g C m -2 (based on carbon stocks; annual carbon gain was not quantified). Drought decreased gross ecosystem productivity (GEP) and total ecosystem respiration, with a much larger GEP decrease. Monsoon rains led to respiratory pulses, lasting a few days at most, and only rarely resulted in net CO 2 gain, despite the fact that C 4 grasses dominated plant cover. Minor CO 2 uptake was observed in fall following rain. Spring CO 2 uptake was regulated by deep soil moisture, which depended on precipitation in the prior fall and winter. The lack of CO 2 uptake during the monsoon and the dependence of GEP on deep soil moisture are in contrast with arid grasslands of the warm deserts. Cold desert grasslands are most likely to be impacted by future changes in winter and not summer precipitation.

Colorado Plateau↗
USGS2015

Distributional changes in the western Burrowing Owl ( Athene cunicularia hypugaea ) in North America from 1967 to 2008

The quantification of shifts in bird distributions in response to climate change provides an opportunity to gain a deeper understanding of the processes that influence species persistence. We used data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) to document changes in the distributional limits of the western Burrowing Owl ( Athene cunicularia hypugaea ) from 1967 to 2008. We used logistic regression to model presence probability ( p ) as a function of longitude, latitude, and year. We modeled a linear trend in logit( p ) through time with slope and intercept modeled as a double Fourier series of longitude and latitude. We found that the western Burrowing Owl has experienced an intriguing southward shift in the northern half of its breeding range, contrary to what is predicted by most species niche models and what has been observed for many other species in North America. The breeding range of the Burrowing Owl has been shrinking near its northern, western, and eastern edges. Our model detected the population declines that were observed in California and eastern Washington, in locations where maps based on route-specific estimating equations had predicted significant population increases. We suggest that the northern boundary of the breeding distribution of the western Burrowing Owl has contracted southward and the southern boundary of the species' breeding distribution has expanded southward into areas of northern Mexico that were formerly used only by wintering migrants.

Journal of Raptor Research↗
USGS2003

Oceans on Mars: An assessment of the observational evidence and possible fate

If the large Late Hesperian outflow channels were eroded by extensive floods, as appears likely, then large bodies of water must have once occupied the northern plains during that period. Previous estimates of the sizes of bodies of water in the northern lowlands range up to 3 ?? 108 km3. Several contacts have been previously mapped around the edges of the northern plains and interpreted to be shorelines remaining from these former standing bodies of water. We examine the elevations and geologic relations along these contacts in detail and find little support for their interpretation as shorelines. Some contacts are clearly of volcanic origin, and all have significant variations in elevation. Better support for the former presence of water over large parts of the northern plains is provided by the Vastitas Borealis Formation (VBF). Most of the post-Noachian fill within the northern basin is ridged plains of Lower Hesperian age, interpreted to be volcanic in origin. Overlying the ridged plains is the VBF, a thin veneer of material of Upper Hesperian age. The VBF may have been deposited from large floods. Support for this interpretation is the similarity in age between the outflow channels and the VBF, the presence of the VBF at the lower ends of the outflow channels, and identification of numerous features in the outcrop areas of the VBF that are suggestive of basal melting of an ice sheet. To cover all the area over which the VBF is exposed would require ???2.3 ?? 107 km3 of water. Spread over the entire surface of Mars, this volume is equal to a global layer (global equivalent layer, or GEL) ???156 m deep. We find no support for the larger estimates of ocean volumes that range up to 3 ?? 108 km3 and which imply comparable amounts of water per unit area as are currently present on the surface of the Earth. Under present climatic conditions on Mars an ocean would freeze in a geologically short time period (???104 years), then would sublimate away at rates strongly dependent on the presence or absence of debris on the ice surface. The present VBF is interpreted as a sublimation residue from the ponded outflow channel effluents. The fate of a volume of water thought to have been emplaced by the outflow channels (???2.3 ?? 107 km3) is largely accounted for by the presence of other existing reservoirs on the planet. An approximately 20-30 m GEL of water is estimated to be in the present polar caps, and a 50 m GEL may have escaped to space since the Hesperian, leaving ???80 m GEL unaccounted for. This amount may be partly trapped in other volatile-rich deposits on the surface, and a significant amount could have reentered the groundwater system by south polar basal melting and been progressively cold-trapped at the base of a growing cryosphere. On the basis of our assessment of the Hesperian-aged deposits, we predict that testing of the Clifford and Parker [2001] hypothesis that a Noachian-aged ocean covered up to one third of the surface of Mars will be made very difficult by the enhanced degradation rates in the Noachian and subsequent geological events in the northern lowlands.

Journal of Geophysical Research E: Planets↗
USGS2001

Seasonal and event-scale variations in solute chemistry for four Sierra Nevada catchments

Hydrobiogeochemical processes controlling stream water chemistry were examined in four small (<5 km2) catchments having contrasting bedrock lithologies in the western Sierra Nevada foothills of California. The Mediterranean climate with its cool/wet and hot/dry cycle produces strong seasonal patterns in hydrological, biological and geochemical processes. Stream water solutes fall into three general groups according to seasonal fluctuation in concentration: Strong, rainy season minimum-dry season maximum (Cl-, SO42-, base cations); weak, rainy season minimum-dry season maximum (Si); and rainy season maximum-dry season minimum (NO3- and K+). Solute dynamics in soil solutions and stream water suggest that mixing of drainage waters from bedrock and soil sources regulate stream water solute concentrations. Patterns are further altered by the leaching of solutes accumulated in the soil over the summer period of desiccation and the temporal discoupling of nutrient cycles that occurs due to differences in the timing between vegetation growth (late spring) and leaching (early winter). Solute concentrations are remarkably similar between watersheds with varying bedrock types, with the exception of nitrate, sulfate and bicarbonate. Three watersheds have nitrogen-bearing metasedimentary bedrock that contributes to elevated nitrate concentrations in stream waters. Watersheds whose bedrock includes mineralized veins of sulfide and carbonate minerals similarly have greater sulfate and bicarbonate concentrations in stream water. Hydrobiogeochemical processes are highly dynamic at the seasonal and storm-event temporal scales and spatially complex at the watershed scale making management of stream water chemical composition, such as nitrate concentrations, very challenging. ?? 2001 Elsevier Science B.V.

Journal of Hydrology↗
USGS2024

Factors influencing larval coregonine spatial distribution in Lake Geneva (Europe) and Lake Superior (North America) during a single season near known spawning sites

Survival rate of the larval stage is an important driver of fish recruitment. To understand mechanisms regulating larval survival it is important to understand the relative importance of abiotic and biotic factors that shape larval spatial distributions. We studied larval Coregonus distributions in surface waters (surface to 1 m) by repeatedly sampling study sites in two lakes that varied greatly in trophic state and regional climate. We evaluated the importance of bathymetric depth, Julian Day, edible zooplankton densities (EZ, ind. L −1 ) and wind vectors on larval spatial distributions using generalized additive modeling. In both systems, larval counts declined in a negative exponential fashion with bathymetric depth, indicating shallow depths are critical nursery habitat. The north-south wind vectors and Julian Day (which was positively correlated with surface temperature) influenced larval distributions in Lake Geneva with larval counts related to both variables linearly, whereas the east-west wind vector and EZ were unimportant. Highest larval counts were during an offshore south wind and declined slightly with Julian Day. In Lake Superior, bathymetric depth and the east-west wind vector influenced larval distributions and were unrelated to EZ, Julian Day, and the north-south wind vector. Larval counts were highest when onshore southwest winds preceded sampling. Differences in how wind affected larval distribution (offshore vs. onshore) might be related to larval size with Lake Superior larvae considerably smaller (average length 12.9 mm vs. 15.9 mm); thus, more apt to be subjected to advection. Within coastal waters, Julian Day and wind vectors influence distributions, but their importance seemingly varies lake-to-lake.

Minnesota↗
USGS2014

An enhanced model of land water and energy for global hydrologic and earth-system studies

LM3 is a new model of terrestrial water, energy, and carbon, intended for use in global hydrologic analyses and as a component of earth-system and physical-climate models. It is designed to improve upon the performance and to extend the scope of the predecessor Land Dynamics (LaD) and LM3V models by better quantifying the physical controls of climate and biogeochemistry and by relating more directly to components of the global water system that touch human concerns. LM3 includes multilayer representations of temperature, liquid water content, and ice content of both snowpack and macroporous soil–bedrock; topography-based description of saturated area and groundwater discharge; and transport of runoff to the ocean via a global river and lake network. Sensible heat transport by water mass is accounted throughout for a complete energy balance. Carbon and vegetation dynamics and biophysics are represented as in LM3V. In numerical experiments, LM3 avoids some of the limitations of the LaD model and provides qualitatively (though not always quantitatively) reasonable estimates, from a global perspective, of observed spatial and/or temporal variations of vegetation density, albedo, streamflow, water-table depth, permafrost, and lake levels. Amplitude and phase of annual cycle of total water storage are simulated well. Realism of modeled lake levels varies widely. The water table tends to be consistently too shallow in humid regions. Biophysical properties have an artificial stepwise spatial structure, and equilibrium vegetation is sensitive to initial conditions. Explicit resolution of thick (>100 m) unsaturated zones and permafrost is possible, but only at the cost of long (≫300 yr) model spinup times.

Journal of Hydrometeorology↗
USGS2007

Factors influencing ground-water recharge in the eastern United States

Ground-water recharge estimates for selected locations in the eastern half of the United States were obtained by Darcian and chloride-tracer methods and compared using statistical analyses. Recharge estimates derived from unsaturated-zone (RUZC) and saturated-zone (RSZC) chloride mass balance methods are less variable (interquartile ranges or IQRs are 9.5 and 16.1 cm/yr, respectively) and more strongly correlated with climatic, hydrologic, land use, and sediment variables than Darcian estimates (IQR = 22.8 cm/yr). The unit-gradient Darcian estimates are a nonlinear function of moisture content and also reflect the uncertainty of pedotransfer functions used to estimate hydraulic parameters. Significance level is <0.001 for nearly all explanatory variables having correlations with RUZC of <-0.3 or >0.3. Estimates of RSZC were evaluated using analysis of variance, multiple comparison tests, and an exploratory nonlinear regression (NLR) model. Recharge generally is greater in coastal plain surficial aquifers, fractured crystalline rocks, and carbonate rocks, or in areas with high sand content. Westernmost portions of the study area have low recharge, receive somewhat less precipitation, and contain fine-grained sediment. The NLR model simulates water input to the land surface followed by transport to ground water, depending on factors that either promote or inhibit water infiltration. The model explains a moderate amount of variation in the data set (coefficient of determination = 0.61). Model sensitivity analysis indicates that mean annual runoff, air temperature, and precipitation, and an index of ground-water exfiltration potential most influence estimates of recharge at sampled sites in the region. Soil characteristics and land use have less influence on the recharge estimates, but nonetheless are significant in the NLR model. ?? 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Journal of Hydrology↗
USGS2020

Persistence and plasticity in conifer water-use strategies

The selective use of seasonal precipitation by vegetation is critical to understanding the residence time and flow path of water in watersheds, yet there are limited datasets to test how climate alters these dynamics. Here, we use measurements of the seasonal cycle of tree ring 18O for two widespread conifer species in the Rocky Mountains of North America to provide a multi-decadal depiction of the seasonal origins of forest water use. The results show that while the conifer tree stands had a dominant preference for use of snowmelt, there were multi-annual periods over the last four decades when use of summer precipitation was preferential. Utilization of summer rain emerged during years with increased snowfall and tree growth, suggesting that summer rain enhanced the transpiration stream only during the periods of highest water use. We hypothesize this could be explained through shallowing of the root profile during wetter periods and/or through the influence of changing water table depths on the residence time of summer precipitation in the root zone. We suggest the tree ring proxy approach used here could be applied in other watersheds to provide critical insight into the temporal dynamics of plant water use that could not be inferred from short measurement campaigns. These data on the seasonal origins of forest water are critical for understanding forest vulnerability to drought, the processes that affect precipitation pathways and residence time in watersheds and the interpretation of tree ring proxy data.

Colorado↗
USGS2022

Detection of Splendidofilaria sp. (Onchocercidae:Splendidofilariinae) Microfilaria within Alaskan ground-dwelling birds in the grouse subfamily tetraoninae using taqman probe-based real-time PCR

Grouse and ptarmigan (Galliformes) harbor fairly diverse helminth faunas that can impact the host's health, including filarial nematodes in the genus Splendidofilaria . As host and parasite distributions are predicted to shift in response to recent climate change, novel parasites may be introduced into a region and impose additional stressors on bird populations. Limited information is available on the prevalence of filariasis in Alaska galliforms. To date, no molecular surveys have been completed. Past studies relied on examining blood smears or total body necropsies, which are time-consuming and may not detect filarial parasites with low prevalence in hosts. Therefore, we developed a TaqMan probe-based real-time PCR assay targeting the cytochrome c oxidase 1 gene ( COI ) of Splendidofilaria to decrease processing times and increase sensitivity as well as provide baseline data on the diversity of filariid infections in galliform species in Alaska. We screened a combined total of 708 galliform samples (678 unique individual birds) from different tissues (blood, muscle, and lung) for the presence of filarial DNA across the state of Alaska. Real-time PCR screening revealed an overall prevalence of filarial infection of 9.5% across species: Bonasa umbellus (0%, n = 23), Dendragapus fuliginosus (0%, n = 8), Falcipennis canadensis (26.8%, n = 198), Lagopus lagopus (2.6%, n = 274), Lagopus leucura (0%, n = 23), Lagopus muta (3%, n = 166), and Tympanuchus phasianellus (12.5%, n = 16). We observed microfilarial infections throughout most of Alaska except in Arctic regions and the Aleutian Islands where viable vectors may not be present.

Journal of Parasitology↗
USGS2017

A model integrating longshore and cross-shore processes for predicting long-term shoreline response to climate change

We present a shoreline change model for coastal hazard assessment and management planning. The model, CoSMoS-COAST (Coastal One-line Assimilated Simulation Tool), is a transect-based, one-line model that predicts short-term and long-term shoreline response to climate change in the 21 st century. The proposed model represents a novel, modular synthesis of process-based models of coastline evolution due to longshore and cross-shore transport by waves and sea-level rise. Additionally, the model uses an extended Kalman filter for data assimilation of historical shoreline positions to improve estimates of model parameters and thereby improve confidence in long-term predictions. We apply CoSMoS-COAST to simulate sandy shoreline evolution along 500 km of coastline in Southern California, which hosts complex mixtures of beach settings variably backed by dunes, bluffs, cliffs, estuaries, river mouths, and urban infrastructure, providing applicability of the model to virtually any coastal setting. Aided by data assimilation, the model is able to reproduce the observed signal of seasonal shoreline change for the hindcast period of 1995-2010, showing excellent agreement between modeled and observed beach states. The skill of the model during the hindcast period improves confidence in the model's predictive capability when applied to the forecast period (2010-2100) driven by GCM-projected wave and sea-level conditions. Predictions of shoreline change with limited human intervention indicate that 31% to 67% of Southern California beaches may become completely eroded by 2100 under sea-level rise scenarios of 0.93 to 2.0 m.

California↗
USGS2019

Timescales of water-quality change in a karst aquifer, south-central Texas

Understanding the drivers and timescales over which groundwater quality changes informs groundwater management, use, and protection. To better understand timescales of water-quality change over short (daily to monthly) and long (seasonal to decadal) timescales, the U.S. Geological Survey’s National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) Enhanced Trends Network (ETN) program instrumented and sampled three wells in the Edwards aquifer in south-central Texas. The wells were instrumented to provide high-frequency continuous (subhourly) water-quality data (temperature, pH, specific conductance, and dissolved oxygen), which were augmented by the collection of discrete samples (about 6 per year) for a range of geochemical constituents (including selected isotopes and age tracers). ETN data (2013–2017) are considered with data from additional sites for the same time period, and also historical records (over more than 80 years) of climatic and hydrologic conditions. During the four-year study, hydrologic conditions transitioned from very dry to very wet. Sites in the updip/unconfined part of the aquifer showed notable changes in water level and geochemistry (1) in response to rainfall/recharge events, and (2) over the multiyear dry/wet cycle. Sites in the downdip/confined part of the aquifer showed changes in water level/spring discharge over similar timescales, although the response is more muted. Geochemistry at the downdip/confined sites, however, varied slowly and minimally, indicating that the geochemical response of the deeper aquifer is decoupled from recent hydrologic responses. Changes at the updip/unconfined sites reflect mixing with recent recharge, whereas the downdip/confined sites were dominated by mineral-solution reactions resulting from longer (decadal) residence times. Mean groundwater ages interpreted from measured age tracers and lumped parameter models range from 7 to >700 years (where mixed with premodern downdip water) but were mostly modern. The aquifer is characterized by updip-to-downdip trends in geochemistry with respect to water-rock interaction and groundwater age. Fourier spectral analysis of historical records indicate hydrologic variability has occurred at dominant periods of 30 and 15 years; in conjunction with age tracers, these results provide insight into timescales at which the aquifer’s public supply is vulnerable to changes in the water quality of recharge.

Texas↗
USGS2012

Synthesis study of an erosion hot spot, Ocean Beach, California

A synthesis of multiple coastal morphodynamic research efforts is presented to identify the processes responsible for persistent erosion along a 1-km segment of 7-km-long Ocean Beach in San Francisco, California. The beach is situated adjacent to a major tidal inlet and in the shadow of the ebb-tidal delta at the mouth of San Francisco Bay. Ocean Beach is exposed to a high-energy wave climate and significant alongshore variability in forcing introduced by varying nearshore bathymetry, tidal forcing, and beach morphology ( e.g. , beach variably backed by seawall, dunes, and bluffs). In addition, significant regional anthropogenic factors have influenced sediment supply and tidal current strength. A variety of techniques were employed to investigate the erosion at Ocean Beach, including historical shoreline and bathymetric analysis, monthly beach topographic surveys, nearshore and regional bathymetric surveys, beach and nearshore grain size analysis, two surf-zone hydrodynamic experiments, four sets of nearshore wave and current experiments, and several numerical modeling approaches. Here, we synthesize the results of 7 years of data collection to lay out the causes of persistent erosion, demonstrating the effectiveness of integrating an array of data sets covering a huge range of spatial scales. The key findings are as follows: anthropogenic influences have reduced sediment supply from San Francisco Bay, leading to pervasive contraction ( i.e. , both volume and area loss) of the ebb-tidal delta, which in turn reduced the regional grain size and modified wave focusing patterns along Ocean Beach, altering nearshore circulation and sediment transport patterns. In addition, scour associated with an exposed sewage outfall pipe causes a local depression in wave heights, significantly modifying nearshore circulation patterns that have been shown through modeling to be key drivers of persistent erosion in that area.

California↗
USGS2018

Projected 21st century coastal flooding in the Southern California Bight. Part 2: Tools for assessing climate change-driven coastal hazards and socio-economic impacts

This paper is the second of two that describes the Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) approach for quantifying physical hazards and socio-economic hazard exposure in coastal zones affected by sea-level rise and changing coastal storms. The modelling approach, presented in Part 1, downscales atmospheric global-scale projections to local scale coastal flood impacts by deterministically computing the combined hazards of sea-level rise, waves, storm surges, astronomic tides, fluvial discharges, and changes in shoreline positions. The method is demonstrated through an application to Southern California, United States, where the shoreline is a mix of bluffs, beaches, highly managed coastal communities, and infrastructure of high economic value. Results show that inclusion of 100-year projected coastal storms will increase flooding by 9–350% (an additional average 53.0 ± 16.0 km 2 ) in addition to a 25–500 cm sea-level rise. The greater flooding extents translate to a 55–110% increase in residential impact and a 40–90% increase in building replacement costs. To communicate hazards and ranges in socio-economic exposures to these hazards, a set of tools were collaboratively designed and tested with stakeholders and policy makers; these tools consist of two web-based mapping and analytic applications as well as virtual reality visualizations. To reach a larger audience and enhance usability of the data, outreach and engagement included workshop-style trainings for targeted end-users and innovative applications of the virtual reality visualizations.

California↗