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At least 1,171 records · Page 65Linked to original sources

USGS2022

Characterizing the oral and distal gut microbiota of the threatened southern sea otter (Enhydra lutris nereis) to enhance conservation practice

The southern sea otter ( Enhydra lutris nereis ) is a threatened sub-species in coastal ecosystems. To understand better the role of diet, monitor health, and enhance management of this and other marine mammal species, we characterized the oral (gingival) and distal gut (rectal and fecal) microbiota of 158 wild southern sea otters living off the coast of central California, USA, and 12 captive sea otters, some of which were included in a diet shift experiment. We found that the sea otter fecal microbiota was distinct from that of three other otter species, and that captivity does not significantly alter the community structure of the sea otter gingival or distal gut microbiota. Metagenomic analysis unexpectedly revealed that the majority of sea otter fecal DNA is derived from prey, rather than from indigenous bacteria or host cells as with most other mammals. We speculate that a reduced bacterial biomass in the sea otter gut reflects rapid gut transit time and a particular strategy for foraging and energy harvest. This study establishes a reference for the healthy sea otter microbiota, highlights how a marine lifestyle may shape the mammalian microbiota, and may inform future health assessments and conservation management of sea otter populations.

California↗

USGS2024

Are researchers citing their data? A case study from the U.S. Geological Survey

Data citation promotes accessibility and discoverability of data through measures carried out by researchers, publishers, repositories, and the scientific community. This paper examines how a data citation workflow has been implemented by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) by evaluating publication and data linkages. Two different methods were used to identify data citations: examining publication structural metadata and examining the full text of the publication. A growing number of USGS researchers are complying with publisher data sharing policies aimed to capture data citation information in a standardized way within associated publications. However, inconsistencies in how data citation information is documented in publications has limited the accessibility and discoverability of the data. This paper demonstrates how organizational evaluations of publication and data linkages can be used to identify obstacles in advancing data citation efforts and improve data citation workflows.

Data Science Journal↗

USGS2014

Pollinators in peril? A multipark approach to evaluating bee communities in habitats vulnerable to effects from climate change

In 2010, collaborators from the National Park Service (Ann Rodman, Yellowstone National Park), USGS (Sam Droege and Ralph Grundel), and Harvard University (Jessica Rykken) were awarded funding from the NPS Climate Change Response Program to launch just such an investigation in almost 50 units of the National Park System (fig. 1). The main objectives of this multiyear project were to: Compare bee communities in three “vulnerable” habitats (high elevation, inland arid, coastal) and paired “common” habitats, representative of the landscape matrix, in order to determine whether vulnerable habitats have a distinctive bee fauna that may be at higher risk under climate change scenarios. Inform natural resource managers at each park about the bee fauna at their paired sites, including the presence of rare and endemic species, and make suggestions for active management strategies to promote native bee habitat if warranted. Increase awareness among park natural resource staffs, interpreters, and visitors of native bee diversity and natural history, the essential role of bees in maintaining healthy ecosystems, and potential threats from climate change to pollinator-dependent ecosystems.

Park Science↗

USGS2016

Clawpack: Building an open source ecosystem for solving hyperbolic PDEs

Clawpack is a software package designed to solve nonlinear hyperbolic partial differential equations using high-resolution finite volume methods based on Riemann solvers and limiters. The package includes a number of variants aimed at different applications and user communities. Clawpack has been actively developed as an open source project for over 20 years. The latest major release, Clawpack 5, introduces a number of new features and changes to the code base and a new development model based on GitHub and Git submodules. This article provides a summary of the most significant changes, the rationale behind some of these changes, and a description of our current development model.

PeerJ Computer Science↗

USGS2019

Nutrients mediate the effects of temperature on methylmercury concentrations in freshwater zooplankton

Methylmercury (MeHg) bioaccumulation in freshwater aquatic systems is impacted by anthropogenic stressors, including climate change and nutrient enrichment. The goal of this study was to determine how warmer water temperatures and excess nutrients would alter zooplankton communities and phytoplankton concentrations, and whether those changes would in turn increase or decrease MeHg concentrations in freshwater zooplankton. To test this, we employed a 2x2 factorial experimental design with nutrient and temperature treatments. Mesocosms were filled with ambient water and plankton from Cottage Grove Reservoir, Oregon, U.S.A, a waterbody that has experienced decades of elevated MeHg concentrations and corresponding fish consumption advisories due to run-off from Black Butte Mine tailings, located within the watershed. Treatment combinations of warmer temperature (increased by 0.7°C) and nutrient addition (a single pulse of 10 ambient concentrations of nitrogen and phosphorous), control, and a combination of temperature and nutrients were applied to mesocosms.

Oregon↗

USGS2016

Dairy-impacted wastewater is a source of iodinated disinfection byproducts in the environment

Iodinated disinfection byproducts (DBPs) are among the most toxic DBPs, but they are not typically measured in treated water. Iodinated DBPs can be toxic to humans, and they also have the potential to affect aquatic communities. Because of the specific use of iodine and iodine-containing compounds in dairies, such livestock operations can be a potential source of iodinated DBPs in corresponding receiving water bodies. DBPs [trihalomethanes (THMs), including iodinated THMs] were measured within dairy processing facilities (milking and cheese manufacturing) and surface waters that receive dairy-impacted effluents [either directly from the dairy or through wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs)] in three areas of the United States (California, New York, and Wisconsin). Iodo-THMs comprised 15−29% of the total THMs in surface water near WWTP effluents that were impacted by dairy waste and 0−100% of the total THMs in samples from dairy processing facilities.

California, New York, Wisconsin↗

USGS2005

Water availability for the Western United States--Key scientific challenges

In the Western United States, the availability of water has become a serious concern for many communities and rural areas. Near population centers, surface-water supplies are fully appropriated, and many communities are dependent upon ground water drawn from storage, which is an unsustainable strategy. Water of acceptable quality is increasingly hard to find because local sources are allocated to prior uses, depleted by overpumping, or diminished by drought stress. Some of the inherent characteristics of the West add complexity to the task of securing water supplies. The Western States, including the arid Southwest, have the most rapid population growth in the United States. The climate varies widely in the West, but it is best known for its low precipitation, aridity, and drought. There is evidence that the climate is warming, which will have consequences for Western water supplies, such as increased minimum streamflow and earlier snowmelt events in snow-dominated basins. The potential for departures from average climatic conditions threatens to disrupt society and local to regional economies. The appropriative rights doctrine governs the management of water in most Western States, although some aspects of the riparian doctrine are being incorporated. The 'use it or lose it' provisions of Western water law discourage conservation and make the reallocation of water to instream environmental uses more difficult. The hydrologic sciences have defined the interconnectedness of ground water and surface water, yet these resources are still administered separately by most States. The definition of water availability has been expanded to include sustaining riparian ecosystems and individual endangered species, which are disproportionately represented in the Western States. Federal reserved rights, common in the West because of the large amount of Federal land, exist with quite senior priority dates whether or not water is currently being used. A major challenge for water users in the West is that these reserved rights may supersede other existing users. The minimum amount of water required, however, to sustain native peoples, a riparian system, or an endangered species eventually will need to be known in order to manage the available water supply. Periodic inventory and assessment of the amounts and trends of water available in surface water and ground water are needed to support water management. There is a widespread perception that the amount of available water is diminishing with time. This and other perceptions about water availability should be replaced by objective data and analysis. Some data are presented here for the major Western rivers that show that flows are not decreasing in most streams and rivers in the West. Systematic information is lacking to make broad assessments of ground-water availability, but available data for specific aquifers indicate that these aquifers are being depleted, especially near population centers. The complexity added to the issue of Western water availability by these and other factors gives rise to a significant role of science. Science has played a role in support of Western water development from the beginning, and the role has evolved and changed over time as society's values have changed. In this report, the role of science is discussed in three phases: (1) development and construction, (2) consequences and environmental awareness, and (3) sustainability. The development and construction phase includes some historical accounting of water development in the West and shows how some precedents set in those early days are still applied today.

western United States↗

USGS2020

Spatial and temporal variations in SO2 and PM2.5 levels around Kīlauea volcano, Hawai'i during 2007–2018

Among the hazards posed by volcanoes are the emissions of gases and particles that can affect air quality and damage agriculture and infrastructure. A recent intense episode of volcanic degassing associated with severe impacts on air quality accompanied the 2018 lower East Rift Zone (LERZ) eruption of Kīlauea volcano, Hawai'i. This resulted in a major increase in gas emission rates with respect to usual emission values for this volcano, along with a shift in the source of the dominant plume to a populated area on the lower flank of the volcano. This led to reduced air quality in downwind communities. We analyse open-access data from the permanent air quality monitoring networks operated by the Hawai'i Department of Health (HDOH) and National Park Service (NPS), and report on measurements of atmospheric sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ) between 2007 and 2018 and PM 2.5 (aerosol particulate matter with diameter <2.5 μm) between 2010 and 2018. Additional air quality data were collected through a community-operated network of low-cost PM 2.5 sensors during the 2018 LERZ eruption. From 2007 to 2018 the two most significant escalations in Kīlauea's volcanic emissions were: the summit eruption that began in 2008 (Kīlauea emissions averaged 5–6 kt/day SO 2 from 2008 until summit activity decreased in May 2018) and the LERZ eruption in 2018 when SO 2 emission rates reached a monthly average of 200 kt/day during June. In this paper we focus on characterizing the airborne pollutants arising from the 2018 LERZ eruption and the spatial distribution and severity of volcanic air pollution events across the Island of Hawai'i. The LERZ eruption caused the most frequent and severe exceedances of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) PM 2.5 air quality threshold (35 μg/m 3 as a daily average) in Hawai'i in the period 2010–2018. In Kona, for example, the maximum 24-h-mean mass concentration of PM 2.5 was recorded as 59 μg/m 3 on the twenty-ninth of May 2018, which was one of eight recorded exceedances of the EPA air quality threshold during the 2018 LERZ eruption, where there had been no exceedances in the previous 8 years as measured by the HDOH and NPS networks. SO 2 air pollution during the LERZ eruption was most severe in communities in the south and west of the island, as measured by selected HDOH and NPS stations in this study, with a maximum 24-h-mean mass concentration of 728 μg/m 3 recorded in Ocean View (100 km west of the LERZ emission source) in May 2018. Data from the low-cost sensor network correlated well with data from the HDOH PM 2.5 instruments, confirming that these low-cost sensors provide a robust means to augment reference-grade instrument networks.

Hawaii↗

USGS2024

Nutrient and carbonate chemistry patterns associated with Karenia brevis blooms in three West Florida Shelf estuaries 2020-2023

Ocean acidification (OA) driven by eutrophication, riverine discharge, and other threats from local population growth that affect the inorganic carbonate system is already affecting the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Long-term declines in pH of ~ -0.001 pH units yr -1 have been observed in many southwest Florida estuaries over the past few decades. Coastal and estuarine waters of southwest Florida experience high biomass harmful algal blooms (HABs) of the dinoflagellate Karenia brevis nearly every year; and these blooms have the potential to impact and be impacted by seasonal to interannual patterns of carbonate chemistry. Sampling was conducted seasonally along three estuarine transects (Tampa Bay, Charlotte Harbor, Caloosahatchee River) between May 2020 and May 2023 to obtain baseline measurements of carbonate chemistry prior to, during, and following K. brevis blooms. Conductivity, temperature and depth data and discrete water samples for K. brevis cell abundance, nutrients, and carbonate chemistry (total alkalinity, dissolved inorganic carbonate (DIC), p CO 2, and pH T were evaluated to identify seasonal patterns and linkages among carbonate system variables, nutrients, and K. brevis blooms. Karenia brevis blooms were observed during six samplings, and highest p CO 2 and lowest pH T was observed either during or after blooms in all three estuaries. Highest average pH and lowest p CO 2 were observed in Tampa Bay. In all three estuaries, average DIC and pH T were higher and p CO 2 was lower during dry seasons than wet seasons. There was strong influence of net community calcification (NCC) and net community production (NCP) on the carbonate system; and NCC : NCP ratios in Tampa Bay, Charlotte Harbor, and the Caloosahatchee River were 0.83, 0.93, and 1.02, respectively. Linear relationships between salinity and dissolved ammonium, phosphate, and nitrate indicate strong influence of freshwater inflow from river input and discharge events on nutrient concentrations. This study is a first step towards connecting observations of high biomass blooms like those caused by K. brevis and alterations of carbonate chemistry in Southwest Florida. Our study demonstrates the need for integrated monitoring to improve understanding of interactions among the carbonate system, HABs, water quality, and acidification over local to regional spatial scales and event to decadal time scales.

Florida↗

USGS2006

Range expansion of an exotic Siberian prawn to the Lower Snake River

The introduction of non-native plant and animal species in aquatic systems is of increasing concern because of their potentially negative ecological and economic impacts (Sytsma et al. 2004). There are many examples of food web repercussions resulting from non-native invertebrate introductions. For example, in Flathead Lake, Montana, the kokanee salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) population crashed after the introduction of a planktivorous mysid, My-sis relicta caused restructuring of the zooplankton community (Spencer et al. 1991) and the introduc-tion of the spiny water flea (Bythotrephes spp.) to the Great Lakes also restructured zooplankton communities (Barbiero and Tuchman 2004). The zebra mussel (Dreissena polymorpha) has nearly extirpated some native unionid clams through competition for food and shell fouling (Strayer 1999). In San Francisco Bay, California, one of the most highly invaded estuaries in the world (Cohen and Carlton 1998), the benthic fauna has been highly modified by the introduction of hundreds of exotic invertebrates including the Chinese mitten crab (Eriocheir sinensis) and the Asian clam, Potamocorbula amurensis. Non-native invertebrate species, including the New Zealand mud snail (Potamopyrgus antipodarum) and an-other Asian clam, Corbicula fluminea, have also been introduced to the Columbia River (Sytsma et al. 2004), but the ecological effects to Columbia River species are largely unknown.

Washington↗

USGS2023

Persistence of native riverine fishes downstream from two hydropower dams with contrasting operations

Identifying hydropower dam operations that lessen detrimental effects on downstream fauna could inform conservation strategies for native fishes. We compared occurrence of native fishes in 20 shoal habitats downstream from two differently operated hydropower dams in the Coosa River system, Georgia, USA. Species richness averaged 7 and 11, respectively, in surveys downstream from (1) a hydropeaking dam and (2) a dam with a re-regulation structure that stabilized downstream flows. In contrast, surveys in two nearby reference communities averaged 19 and 24 species. Species persisting downstream from the dams tended toward water-column orientation, larger body size, longer life-span, and greater prevalence in tributary stream collections, compared with missing or rarely captured species. We observed no evidence of recovery toward reference conditions when operations were paused for 28 months at the hydropeaking dam. Our observations suggest that (1) strongly contrasting dam operations can result in similar alterations to native fish assemblages, potentially reflecting effects of thermal alteration by hypolimnetic water release, and (2) periodic dispersal from tributary streams may enhance fish persistence in flow-altered rivers.

Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences↗

USGS2011

Biodegradation and attenuation of steroidal hormones and alkylphenols by stream biofilms and sediments

Biodegradation of select endocrine-disrupting compounds (17β-estradiol, estrone, 17α-ethynylestradiol, 4-nonylphenol, 4-nonylphenolmonoexthoylate, and 4-nonylphenoldiethoxylate) was evaluated in stream biofilm, sediment, and water matrices collected from locations upstream and downstream from a wastewater treatment plant effluent discharge. Both biologically mediated transformation to intermediate metabolites and biologically mediated mineralization were evaluated in separate time interval experiments. Initial time intervals (0–7 d) evaluated biodegradation by the microbial community dominant at the time of sampling. Later time intervals (70 and 185 d) evaluated the biodegradation potential as the microbial community adapted to the absence of outside energy sources. The sediment matrix was more effective than the biofilm and water matrices at biodegrading 4-nonylphenol and 17β-estradiol. Biodegradation by the sediment matrix of 17α-ethynylestradiol occurred at later time intervals (70 and 185 d) and was not observed in the biofilm or water matrices. Stream biofilms play an important role in the attenuation of endocrine-disrupting compounds in surface waters due to both biodegradation and sorption processes. Because sorption to stream biofilms and bed sediments occurs on a faster temporal scale (<1 h) than the potential to biodegrade the target compounds (50% mineralization at >185 d), these compounds can accumulate in stream biofilms and sediments.

Environmental Science & Technology↗

USGS2020

Good practices for species distribution modeling of deep-sea corals and sponges for resource management: Data collection, analysis, validation, and communication

Resource managers in the United States and worldwide are tasked with identifying and mitigating trade-offs between human activities in the deep sea (e.g., fishing, energy development, and mining) and their impacts on habitat-forming invertebrates, including deep-sea corals and sponges (DSCS). Related management decisions require information about where DSCS occur and in what densities. Species distribution modeling (SDM) provides a cost-effective means of identifying potential DSCS habitat over large areas to inform these management decisions and data collection. Here we describe good practices for DSCS SDM, especially in the context of data collection and management applications. Managers typically need information regarding DSCS encounter probabilities, densities, and sizes, defined at sub-regional to basin-wide scales and validated using subsequent, targeted data collections. To realistically achieve these goals, we suggest analysts: 1) integrate available data sources in SDMs including fine-scale visual sampling and broad-scale resource surveys (e.g., fisheries trawl surveys); and 2) include environmental predictor variables representing multiple spatial scales, model residual spatial autocorrelation, and quantify prediction uncertainty. When possible, models fitted to presence-absence and density data are preferred over models fitted only to presence data, which are difficult to validate and can confound estimated probability of occurrence or density with sampling effort. Ensembles of models can provide robust predictions, while multi-species models leverage information across taxa and facilitate community inference. To facilitate the use of models by managers, predictions should be expressed in units that are widely understood and validated at an appropriate spatial scale using a sampling design that provides strong statistical inference. We present three case studies for the Pacific Ocean that illustrate good practices with respect to data collection, modeling, and validation; these case studies demonstrate it is possible to implement our good practices in real-world settings.

Frontiers in Marine Science↗

USGS2013

Satellite images of the September 2013 flood event in Lyons, Colorado

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Special Applications Science Center (SASC) produced an image base map showing high-resolution remotely sensed data over Lyons, Colorado—a city that was severely affected by the flood event that occurred throughout much of the Colorado Front Range in September of 2013. The 0.5-meter WorldView-2 data products were created from imagery collected by DigitalGlobe on September 13 and September 24, 2013, during and following the flood event. The images shown on this map were created to support flood response efforts, specifically for use in determining damage assessment and mitigation decisions. The raw, unprocessed imagery were orthorectified and pan-sharpened to enhance mapping accuracy and spatial resolution, and reproduced onto a cartographic base map. These maps are intended to provide a snapshot representation of post-flood ground conditions, which may be useful to decisionmakers and the general public. The SASC also provided data processing and analysis support for other Colorado flood-affected areas by creating cartographic products, geo-corrected electro-optical and radar image mosaics, and GIS water cover files for use by the Colorado National Guard, the National Park Service, the U.S. Forest Service, and the flood response community. All products for this International Charter event were uploaded to the USGS Hazards Data Distribution System (HDDS) website (http://hdds.usgs.gov/hdds2/) for distribution.

Colorado↗

USGS2014

Urban ecosystem services and decision making for a green Philadelphia

Traditional approaches to urban development often do not account for, or recognize, the role of ecosystem services and the benefits these services provide to the health and well-being of city residents. Without such accounting, urban ecosystem services are likely to be degraded over time, with negative consequences for the sustainability of cities and the well-being of their residents (Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005; Hirsch, 2008). On May 23, 2013, the Spatial Integration Laboratory for Urban Systems (SILUS), a collaboration between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Science and Decisions Center and the Wharton GIS Lab, convened a one-day symposium—Urban Ecosystem Services and Decision Making: A Green Philadelphia—at the University of Pennsylvania in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, to examine the role of green infrastructure in the environmental, economic, and social well-being of cities. Cosponsored by the USGS and the Penn Institute for Urban Research (Penn IUR), the symposium brought together policymakers, practitioners, and researchers from a range of disciplines to advance a research agenda on the use of science in public decision making to inform investment in green infrastructure and ecosystem services in urban areas. The city of Philadelphia has recently implemented a program designed to sustain urban ecosystem services and advance the use of green infrastructure. In 2009, the Philadelphia Mayor’s Office of Sustainability launched its Greenworks plan, establishing a citywide sustainability strategy. Major contributions towards its goals are being implemented in coordination with the Philadelphia Water Department (PWD). The Green City, Clean Waters initiative, the city’s nationally recognized stormwater management plan, was signed into action with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in April 2012. The plan outlines a 25-year strategy to use green infrastructure to protect and improve the city’s watershed. Widespread support for the plan marks a citywide effort to factor environmental quality concerns into the city’s strategic planning, choosing to replace expensive and aging grey infrastructure, with innovative and resilient green infrastructure. The symposium focused on these city of Philadelphia initiatives and also on two new Federal- local partnership programs: America’s Great Outdoors, initiated to promote conservation and recreation, and the Urban Waters Federal Partnership, a multiagency effort to reconnect urban communities to their waterways. A second goal of the symposium was to advance a research agenda on urban ecosystem services. While there has been considerable work on ecosystem services, the discussion of the benefits provided by urban ecosystems is not as developed. Benefits range from improved water and air quality to quality of life gains, including aesthetic and recreational considerations. There is also need for additional focused research toward furthering the understanding of the multiple indirect benefits provided by urban ecosystem services (Bolund and Hunhammar, 1999). Moreover, there is a need for a greater understanding of how best to inform local decision making in this area, as local decision makers in cities across the country are increasingly recognizing the importance of developing sustainability measures for their immediate and long-term planning (United States Conference of Mayors, 2005). Approaching these local and regional plans from a holistic perspective has become a guiding principle of sustainability and resiliency. Therefore, there is a need to better understand the gains that have been achieved and to advance a research agenda on ecosystem services going forward. The day’s program included presentations on greening initiatives from the Philadelphia’s Mayor’s Office of Sustainability, as well as discussion about using an urban ecosystem services framework to evaluate these initiatives. Panel sessions included discussion of the Green City, Clean Waters initiative; a dialogue about the management of urban trees and green space; and a conversation addressing the needs for future research.

Pennsylvania↗

USGS2008

Biomedical and veterinary science can increase our understanding of coral disease

A balanced approach to coral disease investigation is critical for understanding the global decline of corals. Such an approach should involve the proper use of biomedical concepts, tools, and terminology to address confusion and promote clarity in the coral disease literature. Investigating disease in corals should follow a logical series of steps including identification of disease, systematic morphologic descriptions of lesions at the gross and cellular levels, measurement of health indices, and experiments to understand disease pathogenesis and the complex interactions between host, pathogen, and the environment. This model for disease investigation is widely accepted in the medical, veterinary and invertebrate pathology disciplines. We present standard biomedical rationale behind the detection, description, and naming of diseases and offer examples of the application of Koch's postulates to elucidate the etiology of some infectious diseases. Basic epidemiologic concepts are introduced to help investigators think systematically about the cause(s) of complex diseases. A major goal of disease investigation in corals and other organisms is to gather data that will enable the establishment of standardized case definitions to distinguish among diseases. Concepts and facts amassed from empirical studies over the centuries by medical and veterinary pathologists have standardized disease investigation and are invaluable to coral researchers because of the robust comparisons they enable; examples of these are given throughout this paper. Arguments over whether coral diseases are caused by primary versus opportunistic pathogens reflect the lack of data available to prove or refute such hypotheses and emphasize the need for coral disease investigations that focus on: characterizing the normal microbiota and physiology of the healthy host; defining ecological interactions within the microbial community associated with the host; and investigating host immunity, host-agent interactions, pathology, pathogenesis, and factors that promote the pathogenicity of the causative agent(s) of disease.

Journal of Experimental Marine Biology and Ecology↗

USGS2021

Earthcasting: Geomorphic forecasts for society

Over the last several decades, the study of Earth surface processes has progressed from a descriptive science to an increasingly quantitative one due to advances in theoretical, experimental, and computational geosciences. The importance of geomorphic forecasts has never been greater, as technological development and global climate change threaten to reshape the landscapes that support human societies and natural ecosystems. Here we explore best practices for developing socially relevant forecasts of Earth surface change, a goal we are calling “earthcasting”. We suggest that earthcasts have the following features: they focus on temporal (∼1–∼100 years) and spatial (∼1 m–∼10 km) scales relevant to planning; they are designed with direct involvement of stakeholders and public beneficiaries through the evaluation of the socioeconomic impacts of geomorphic processes; and they generate forecasts that are clearly stated, testable, and include quantitative uncertainties. Earthcasts bridge the gap between Earth surface researchers and decision-makers, stakeholders, researchers from other disciplines, and the general public. We investigate the defining features of earthcasts and evaluate some specific examples. This paper builds on previous studies of prediction in geomorphology by recommending a roadmap for (a) generating earthcasts, especially those based on modeling; (b) transforming a subset of geomorphic research into earthcasts; and (c) communicating earthcasts beyond the geomorphology research community. Earthcasting exemplifies the social benefit of geomorphology research, and it calls for renewed research efforts toward further understanding the limits of predictability of Earth surface systems and processes, and the uncertainties associated with modeling geomorphic processes and their impacts.

Earth's Future↗

USGS2025

Beak deformities in Buteo jamaicensis (Red-tailed Hawk) signal possible emergence of avian keratin disorder among raptors

Beginning in the late 1990s, an unusual cluster of beak deformities was observed among Buteo jamaicensis (Red-tailed Hawk) in the Pacific coastal region of North America. However, information was not available to determine the scope of this problem nor to assess a potential link between beak deformities in hawks and avian keratin disorder (AKD), an emerging disease primarily among passerines that causes overgrowth of the keratinized layer of the beak. To help address these knowledge gaps, we compiled capture records, citizen science reports, and other available data from across North America. As part of a long-term raptor monitoring program in Washington, we detected anomalously high rates of beak deformities in 29% and other keratin abnormalities in an additional 19% of B. jamaicensis between 2014 and 2021. We also identified more than 100 other AKD-like cases in B. jamaicensis , largely clustered in the Pacific coastal region, with most reports from 2000 to present. Pathologic examination of affected hawks revealed gross and microscopic features consistent with AKD in passerines, while shared epidemiological patterns, including timing of emergence, provided further evidence that this disease may impact an ecologically diverse suite of species. We detected poecivirus, a novel avian virus implicated as a likely cause of AKD in Poecile atricapillus (Black-capped Chickadee), in 1 out of 10 swabs collected from live B. jamaicensis , with gross beak deformities, suggesting the possibility of a shared viral etiology across species. However, additional work would be needed to determine the underlying cause of beak deformities in and their potential impacts on B. jamaicensis . By documenting this cluster of beak deformities, we hope to raise awareness among the ornithological community, including raptor researchers, to better track current and future outbreaks of beak deformities and related conditions.

Ornithology↗