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Executive summary. In Second State of the Carbon Cycle Report (SOCCR2): A Sustained Assessment Report

Central to life on Earth, carbon is essential to the molecular makeup of all living things and plays a key role in regulating global climate. To understand carbon’s role in these processes, researchers measure and evaluate carbon stocks and fluxes. A stock is the quantity of carbon contained in a pool or reservoir in the Earth system (e.g., carbon in forest trees), and a flux is the direction and rate of carbon’s transfer between pools (e.g., the movement of carbon from the atmosphere into forest trees during photosynthesis). This document, the Second State of the Carbon Cycle Report (SOCCR2), examines the patterns of carbon stocks and fluxes—collectively called the “carbon cycle.” Emphasis is given to these patterns in specific sectors (e.g., agriculture and energy) and ecosystems (e.g., forests and coastal waters) and to the response of the carbon cycle to human activity. The purpose of SOCCR2 is to assess the current state of the North American carbon cycle and to present recent advances in understanding the factors that influence it. Concentrating on North America—Canada, the United States, and Mexico—the report describes carbon cycling for air, land, inland waters (streams, rivers, lakes, and reservoirs), and coastal waters (see Figure ES.1, p. 23). The questions framing the publication A U.S. Carbon Cycle Science Plan (Michalak et al., 2011) inspired development of three slightly modified questions that guide SOCCR2’s content and focus on North America in a global context: How have natural processes and human actions affected the global carbon cycle on land, in the atmosphere, in the ocean and other aquatic systems, and at ecosystem interfaces (e.g., coastal, wetland, and urban-rural)? How have socioeconomic trends affected atmospheric levels of the primary carbon-containing gases, carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4)? How have species, ecosystems, natural resources, and human systems been impacted by increasing greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations, associated changes in climate, and carbon management decisions and practices? SOCCR2 synthesizes the most recent understanding of carbon cycling in North America, assessing new carbon cycle findings and information, the state of knowledge regarding core methods used to study the carbon cycle, and future research needed to best inform carbon management and policy options. Focusing on scientific developments in the decade since the First State of the Carbon Cycle Report (SOCCR1; CCSP 2007), SOCCR2 summarizes the past, current, and projected state of carbon sources, sinks, and natural processes, as well as contributions by human activities. In addition to CO2 and CH4, the report sometimes discusses nitrous oxide (N2O), a GHG associated with activities and processes that affect fluxes of carbon gases.1 SOCCR2 also describes improvements in analysis tools; developments in decision support; and new insights into ecosystem carbon cycling, human causes of changes in the carbon cycle, and social science perspectives on carbon. Since publication of SOCCR1, coordinated research from agencies in the three North American countries has enabled innovative observational, analytical, and modeling capabilities to further advance understanding of the North American carbon cycle (see Appendix D: Carbon Measurement Approaches and Accounting Frameworks, p. 834). Some of the report’s main conclusions, based on the Key Findings of each chapter, are highlighted in Box ES.1, Main Findings of SOCCR2, p. 24.

Report↗

Scientific meeting raises awareness of amphibian decline in Asia

Blood samples from 433 Peregrine Falcons (Falco peregrinus) during fall and spring migrations, 1976-80, indicated that most of their pesticide burden, primarily DDE, was accumulated on wintering grounds in Latin America. DDE in spring migrants returning from Latin America for the first time declined significantly from 1979 to 1980. Only about 10% of breeding-age females contained organochlorine residues likely to adversely affect reproduction. The organochlorine pesticide threat in Latin America may be diminishing.

Newsletter of the Declining Amphibian Populations ↗

Bird community composition

Neotropical migrants are birds that breed in North America and winter primarily in Central and South America. Long-term population studies of birds in the Eastern United States indicated declines of some forest-dwelling birds, many of which winter in the Neotropics (Peterjohn and others 1995). These declines were attributed to loss of wintering and breeding habitat due to deforestation and fragmentation, respectively. Many species of Nearctic migrants--birds that breed in the northern regions of North America and winter in the Southern United States--are also experiencing population declines. Because large areas of undistrubed, older, bottomland hardwood forests oftern contain large numbers of habitat specialists, including forest-interior neotropical migrants and wintering Nearctic migrants, these forests may be critical in maintaining avian diversity. This study had two primary objectivs: (1) to create a baseline data set that can be used as a standard against which other bottomland hardwood forests can be compared, and (2) to establish long-term monitoring stations during both breeding and wintering seasons to discern population trends of avian species using bottomland hardwood forests.

Book chapter↗

Duck viral enteritis (duck plague) in North American Waterfowl

Duck Viral Enteritis (DVE) was first recognized in North America in January 1967, when an outbreak occurred in a commercial flock of white Pekin ducks in Suffolk County, Long Island, New York (Leibovitz and Hwang, 1968b). Originally described as a disease of domestic ducks in the Netherlands, DVE has since been reported from India and Belgium. it is also believed to have occurred in China and France (Jansen, 1968). This paper briefly reviews the status of DVE among wild waterfowl in North America and describes some of the characteristic lesions associated with this disease. The paper also mentions some of the work which has been undertaken to learn more about the status of DVE in North America.

Conference Paper↗

Organochlorine pesticides and PCB's: A continuing problem for the 1980s

In general. decreases in OC contamination in North America are unmistakable. This is documented by the NPMP. but. more importantly. it is borne out by improvements in the reproduction and population status of the brown pelican. bald eagle, peregrine falcon, and osprey. However, some OC contamination still persists, and several species, particularly predatory birds and insectivorous bats, continue to be vulnerable. Current OC problems in North America result from present and past usage and from industrial contamination. In addition, some studies suggest that some migrant bird species that winter south of the U.S. border are exposed to higher levels of OC pesticide than non-migrants. However, heavy OC pesticide contamination is known to exist in Arizona, New Mexico, and in southern California where migratory birds might stop during migration. At this time, we do not have the information to assess specifically the sources of contamination for most migrant species. From the number of recent OC problems identified in North America, it is apparent that OC's are not confined to the past and that we must continue to monitor and study OC's during this decade. However, current administrative, management, and research priorities are being directed toward the search for potential impacts of newer pesticides, air pollution. industrial waste, and other contaminants. Although it is necessary to build a body of scientific data on these types of contaminants, we feel that we cannot neglect continued work on OC's for which harmful effects impacting our wildlife resources are already known.

Transactions of the North American Wildlife and Na↗

Wind Turbines as Landscape Impediments to the Migratory Connectivity of Bats

Unprecedented numbers of migratory bats are found dead beneath industrial-scale wind turbines during late summer and autumn in both North America and Europe. Prior to the wide-scale deployment of wind turbines, fatal collisions of migratory bats with anthropogenic structures were rarely reported and likely occurred very infrequently. There are no other well-documented threats to populations of migratory tree bats that cause mortality of similar magnitude to that observed at wind turbines. Just three migratory species comprise the vast majority of bat kills at turbines in North America and there are indications that turbines may actually attract migrating individuals toward their blades. Although fatality of certain migratory species is consistent in occurrence across large geographic regions, fatality rates differ across sites for reasons mostly unknown. Cumulative fatality for turbines in North America might already range into the hundreds of thousands of bats per year. Research into the causes of bat fatalities at wind turbines can ascertain the scale of the problem and help identify solutions. None of the migratory bats known to be most affected by wind turbines are protected by conservation laws, nor is there a legal mandate driving research into the problem or implementation of potential solutions.

Environmental Law↗

Northern Pintail ( Anas acuta )

The Northern Pintail is a medium-sized dabbling duck of slender, elegant lines and conservative plumage coloration. It is circumpolar in distribution and abundant in North America, with core nesting habitat in Alaska and the Prairie Pothole Region of southern Canada and the northern Great Plains. Breeders favor shallow wetlands interspersed throughout prairie grasslands or arctic tundra. An early fall migrant, the species arrives on wintering areas beginning in August, after wing molt, often forming large roosting and feeding flocks on open, shallow wetlands and flooded agricultural fields. The birds consume grains, marsh plant seeds, and aquatic invertebrates throughout the fall and winter. Northern Pintails are among the earliest nesting ducks in North America, beginning shortly after ice-out in many northern areas. Individuals form new pair bonds each winter but are highly promiscuous during the nesting season, with mated and unmated males often involved in vigorous, acrobatic Pursuit Flights. Annual nest success and productivity vary with water conditions, predation, and weather. Females build nests on the ground, often long distances from water. Only the female incubates; her mate leaves shortly after incubation begins. Ducklings hatch together in one day, follow the female to water after a day in the nest, and fledge by July or August. Adults and ducklings consume mainly aquatic invertebrates during the breeding season. Predators and farming operations destroy many thousands of Northern Pintail nests annually; farming has also greatly reduced the amount of quality nesting cover available. Winter habitats are threatened by water shortages, agricultural development, contamination, and urbanization. Periods of extended drought in prairie nesting regions have caused dramatic population declines, usually followed by periods of recovery. Over the long term, however, the continental population of Northern Pintails has declined significantly from 6 million birds in the early 1970s to less than 3 million in the late 1980s and early 1990s. However, new conservation measures, such as habitat restoration and enhancement of agricultural lands, as well as prudent harvest restrictions, suggest that Northern Pintails should have a secure future in North America.

Book chapter↗

Global-scale patterns of forest fragmentation

We report an analysis of forest fragmentation based on 1-km resolution land-cover maps for the globe. Measurements in analysis windows from 81 km 2 (9 x 9 pixels, “small” scale) to 59,049 km 2 (243 x 243 pixels, “large” scale) were used to characterize the fragmentation around each forested pixel. We identified six categories of fragmentation (interior, perforated, edge, transitional, patch, and undetermined) from the amount of forest and its occurrence as adjacent forest pixels. Interior forest exists only at relatively small scales; at larger scales, forests are dominated by edge and patch conditions. At the smallest scale, there were significant differences in fragmentation among continents; within continents, there were significant differences among individual forest types. Tropical rain forest fragmentation was most severe in North America and least severe in Europe–Asia. Forest types with a high percentage of perforated conditions were mainly in North America (five types) and Europe–Asia (four types), in both temperate and subtropical regions. Transitional and patch conditions were most common in 11 forest types, of which only a few would be considered as “naturally patchy” (e.g., dry woodland). The five forest types with the highest percentage of interior conditions were in North America; in decreasing order, they were cool rain forest, coniferous, conifer boreal, cool mixed, and cool broadleaf.

Conservation Ecology↗

The fifth International Geological Congress, Washington, 1891

The 5th International Geological Congress (IGC), the initial meeting in North America, was the first of the three IGCs that have been held in the United States of America (USA). Of the 538 registrants alive when the 5th IGC convened in Washington, 251 persons, representing fifteen countries, actually attended the meeting. These participants included 173 people from the USA, of whom forty-two represented the US Geological Survey (USGS). Fourteen of the US State geological surveys sent representatives to Washington. Eight participants came from other countries in the Western Hemisphere - Canada (3), Chile (1), Mexico (3), and Peru (1). The sixty-six European geologists and naturalists at the 5th IGC represented Austro-Hungary (3), Belgium (3), Britain (12), France (7), Germany (23), Norway (1), Romania (3), Russia (8), Sweden (4), and Switzerland (2). The USGS and the Columbian College (now the George Washington University) acted as the principal hosts. The American Association for the Advancement of Science and then the Geological Society of America (GSA) met in the Capital immediately before the Congress convened (26 August-1 September 1891). The 5th IGC's formal discussions treated the genetic classification of Pleistocene rocks, the chronological correlation of clastic rocks, and the international standardization of colors, symbols, and names used on geologic maps. The third of those topics continued key debates at the 1st through 4th IGCs. The GSA, the Korean Embassy, the Smithsonian Institution's US National Museum, the USGS, and one of the two Secretaries-General hosted evening receptions. Field excursions examined Paleozoic exposures in New York (18-25 August), Cretaceous-Pleistocene localities along the Potomac River south of Washington (30 August), and classic Precambrian-Pleistocene sequences and structures in the Great Plains, Yellowstone, Rocky Mountains, and Great Basin (2-26 September), with optional trips to the Grand Canyon (19-28 September) and Lake Superior (23 September-2 October). The single-volume report of the 5th IGC was published in Washington in 1893.

Conference Paper↗

Historical abundance and morphology of Didymosphenia species in Naknek Lake, Alaska

Since the 1980s, nuisance blooms of Didymosphenia geminata (Lyngbye) M. Schmidt have been documented in sites that are warmer and more mesotrophic than historical records indicate. While the invasion of D. geminata in New Zealand is well documented, it is less clear whether nuisance blooms in North America are a new phenomenon. In order to test the hypothesis that D. geminata blooms have increased in recent years, we examined the historical record of this species in sediments of Naknek Lake, in Katmai National Park, Alaska. Chronological control was established by relating the presence of two ash layers to known volcanic eruptions. We identified two species of Didymosphenia within the sediment record: D. geminata and D. clavaherculis (Ehrenberg) Metzeltin et Lange-Bertalot. This is the first published record of D. clavaherculis in North America. We found no statistically significant change in the numerical presence of D. geminata or D. clavaherculis, as a group, in Naknek Lake between the years 1218 and 2003. While there has been no sudden, or recent, increase in abundance of Didymosphenia in Naknek Lake, morphological features of D. geminata populations in Naknek Lake are distinct compared to morphological features of D. geminata in streams containing nuisance blooms from sites in North America and New Zealand. Variance in the morphology of Didymosphenia cells may help determine relationships between distinct sub-populations and establish the history of habitat invasion.

Conference Paper↗

Metallogeny of the northeastern Pacific Rim: an example of the distribution of ore deposits along a growing continental margin

The distribution of mineral deposits within northwestern North America (Alaska, Yukon, and northern British Columbia) allows for an in-depth examination of the metallogenic patterns of a growing continental margin. A more complete understanding of the tectonic evolution of this part of the Pacific Rim, achieved over the last 15 to 20 years, now allows for the placement of ore systems into a well-defined plate tectonic framework. Ore deposits older than about 185 Ma represent hydrothermal systems that were active in the platform/shelf environment of ancestral North America's miogeocline or hydrothermal systems developed in oceanic arcs and continental fragments more distal to the craton. These include important SEDEX, VMS, and pre-accretionary porphyry deposits. In contrast, most mineral deposits younger than about 185 Ma were formed within the growing Cordilleran orogen, as terranes were accreted to the continental margin during interactions between the North America and Pacific/Farallon/Kula plates. Such syn- to post-accretionary mineralised systems include many large lode gold and porphyry/skarn systems.

Alaska↗

Science foundation Chapter 5 Appendix 5.1: Case study Forester's tern ( Sterna forsteri ) and California least tern ( Sternula antillarum browni )

This case study considers two tern species that breed within the San Francisco Bay Estuary, Forster’s Terns ( Sterna forsteri ) and California Least Terns ( Sternula antillarum browni ). Forster’s Terns are medium-sized (140 g) terns that breed in coastal and interior marshes of North America. Forster’s Terns can exploit ephemeral habitats, and colony locations often move among years with change in habitat suitability and resource availability. Least Terns are smaller-sized (45 g) terns that breed along beaches and major interior rivers of North America, and winter along marine coastlines in Central and South America. Forster’s Terns and California Least Terns breeding in San Francisco Bay tend to use the same nesting colony locations each years.

California↗

Where the buffalo roam: The role of history and genetics in the conservation of bison on U.S. federal lands

As an emblem of the Great Plains, American Indians, and wildlife conservation, the American bison ( Bison bison ) is one of the most visible and well-known of wildlife species in North America (fig. 1, above). Species of the genus Bison originally entered the continent via the Bering land bridge from northern Eurasia in the Illinoian glacial period of the Pleistocene epoch (125,000–500,000 years ago). Bison are the largest species in North America to have survived the late Pleistocene–early Holocene megafauna extinction period (around 9,000–11,000 years ago), but likely experienced a dramatic population reduction triggered by environmental changes and increased human hunting pressures around this time (Dary 1989; McDonald 1981). The modern American bison species ( Bison bison ) emerged and expanded across the grasslands of North America around 4,000–5,000 years ago (McDonald 1981). As the major grazer of the continent, bison populations ranged from central Mexico to northern Canada and nearly from the east to west coasts ( fig. 2; McDonald 1981), with 25–40 million bison estimated to have roamed the Great Plains prior to the 19th century (Flores 1991; McHugh 1972; Shaw 1995).

Park Science↗

lowaphyllum (rugose coral) from the Upper Devonian of Arizona

The rugose coral genus lowaphyllum is uncommon but widely distributed in rocks of Devonian age. It is here reported for the first time from western North America (Late Devonian). lowaphyllum is also known from the late Middle and Late Devonian of Eastern North America, but the lack of Early and early Middle Devonian species anywhere in North America leaves open the question of derivation of these forms and their relationship to Early Devonian species in Europe and Australia.

Arizona↗

Datasheet: Pseudogymnoascus destructans (white-nose syndrome fungus)

Pseudogymnoascus destructans is a psychrophilic (cold-loving) fungus that causes white-nose syndrome (WNS), an emerging disease of North American bats that has caused unprecedented population declines. The fungus is believed to have been introduced to North America from Europe or Asia (where it is present but does not cause significant mortality), but the full extent of its native range is unknown. The route of introduction is also unknown. In North America, hibernating bats become infected with P. destructans when body temperature decreases during winter torpor into the range permissive for growth of this fungus. Infected bats may develop visible fungal growth on the nose or wings, awaken more frequently from torpor, and experience a cascade of physiologic changes that result in weight loss, dehydration, electrolyte imbalances, and death. P. destructans persists in the environments of underground bat hibernation sites (hibernacula) and is believed to spread primarily by natural movements of infected bats. The first evidence of WNS in North America is from a photograph of a hibernating bat taken during winter of 2005-2006 in a hibernaculum near Albany, New York. P. destructans subsequently spread rapidly from the northeastern United States throughout much of the eastern portions of the United States and Canada, and most recently (as of May 2017) was detected in Washington State. It has killed millions of bats, threatening some species with regional extirpation and putting at risk the valuable environmental services that bats provide by eating harmful insects.

Book chapter↗

Conservation status of the world’s swan populations, Cygnus sp. and Coscoroba sp.: a review of current trends and gaps in knowledge

Recent estimates of the world’s swan Cygnus sp. populations indicate that there are currently between 1.5–1.6 million birds in 8 species, including the Coscoroba Swan Coscoroba coscoroba as an honorary swan. Monitoring programmes in Europe and North America indicate that most populations increased following the introduction of national and international legislation to protect the species during the early- to mid-20th century. A switch from feeding primarily on aquatic vegetation to foraging on farmland (especially high-energy arable crops) in winter during the second half of the 20th century, is also considered a contributing factor. Trumpeter Swans Cygnus buccinator famously increased from just 69 individuals known to exist in 1935 (although small numbers were missed) to c. 76,000 at the present time, and most of the northern hemisphere swan populations have continued to show increasing/stable trends over the last 20 years. The exception to this pattern is a decline since 1995 in the Northwest European Bewick’s Swan population, following an increase in its population size during the 1970s–1980s, which is now being addressed through implementation of an International Single Species Action Plan. A proposal to change enforcement regulations of the Migratory Bird Treaty Act in the United States is also of concern, as potentially undermining protection for Trumpeter Swans in North America, illustrating the importance of politics and legislation as well as on-the-ground measures for species conservation. Elsewhere, less is known about the trends and conservation status for swans in central and eastern Asia, though count and research programmes introduced in China, added to those underway in Japan and Korea, have recently greatly enhanced our knowledge of swan populations on the East Asian flyway. Trends for the Black Swan Cygnus atratus in Australia and for the Black-necked Swan Cygnus melancoryphus in South America are also poorly known, because of the large numbers involved for the former and a lack of coordinated counts across difficult terrain for the latter. These southern hemisphere species are considered vulnerable to water resource developments ( i.e . where diversion of water is shrinking wetlands), and to droughts associated with El Nino events and climate change. More extensive monitoring is therefore required to determine whether swan populations and species are stable, fluctuating or in decline.

Wildfowl↗

Data resources for NGA-subduction project

A relational database was developed over a five-year period to support ground motion model (GMM) development for the Next Generation Attenuation-Subduction (NGA-Sub) project. The relational database has components that interact according to a database schema, including a source and path component used to describe attributes of seismic sources in global subduction regions and to compute source-to-site distances, a site component that describes attributes of sites where recordings have been made, and a ground motion component. The source component of the database has information for 1880 earthquakes, mainly from the following regions: the Pacific Northwest region of North America, Alaska and the Aleutian Islands, Japan, Taiwan, New Zealand, South America, Central America, and Mexico. Of the 1880 earthquakes, 88 have finite fault models (FFMs) from the literature that were systematically reviewed, distilled to one more rectangular shapes, and trimmed according to procedures based on percentage of total slip. For earthquakes without FFMs, a simulation routine is used to represent finite fault effects required for distance calculations. This simulation routine was adjusted and made more uniform in its application than in prior NGA projects. All earthquakes are classified as interface, intraslab, shallow crustal, or outer rise, using uniform protocols developed for this project. All earthquakes are also assigned class designations adapted from a prior NGA project for active regions, that allows foreshock, mainshock, and aftershock events to be distinguished. The site component of the database is described in a companion paper (Ahdi et al. 2020 [1]). The ground motion component of the database consists of median – and maximum – horizontal component peak parameters (peak ground acceleration, PGA and peak ground velocity, PGV) and pseudo-spectral accelerations (PSa) at 111 oscillator periods and 11 damping ratios. Response spectra were also computed for the vertical component. Fourier amplitude spectra (FAS) and duration metrics were also computed. The ground motion recordings were obtained from collaborating organizations world-wide as uncorrected (Vol 1) digital recordings, that were corrected (componentspecific low – and high – pass filters and baseline correction, as needed) following Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center (PEER)/NGA protocols. The relational database operates on each of these (and other) database components to dynamically draw relevant parameters into a single file, known as a flatfile, that is used by researchers engaged in GMM development. The flatfiles used in model development are being published with the NGA-Sub GMMs as products of the NGA-Sub project.

Extramural-Authored Publication Paper↗

The impact of future changes in climate on breeding waterfowl pairs in the US Prairie Pothole Region

Millions of small (< 10 ha) waterbodies embedded in grassland and agroecosystems in midcontinental North America provide breeding habitat to an estimated 50–80% of North America’s migratory ducks. Tens of millions of dollars are invested annually to conserve and enhance upland and wetland habitats for breeding ducks by prioritizing locations predicted to have high densities of breeding pairs under average precipitation conditions. An implicit assumption of this approach is that the distribution of breeding habitat remains relatively static. Climate change is an identified risk to this strategy. To assess this assumption and plan for potential forthcoming conditions, we estimated changes in potential breeding duck pairs under different climate scenarios by combining results of 1) a mechanistic hydrology model that simulates ecosystem processes for a subset of wetlands distributed across the U.S. Prairie Pothole Region (USPPR); 2) four downscaled climate model projections at mid- and late-century time horizons; and 3) U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service multi-decadal datasets and predictive breeding waterfowl pair statistical models. We conducted virtual and in-person informational sessions with partners to inform them on the best practices of using downscaled global circulation models and approaches for climate scenario planning. This close coordination led to a joint presentation at a monthly North Central Climate Adaptation Science Center seminar. We are also co-developing simulated wetland- waterfowl responses under different climate futures for wetlands. Information from these robust predictions of waterfowl habitat and settling patterns in this region provides land-management agencies insights in prioritizing current conservation actions given uncertainty. In addition, understanding how many breeding pairs the USPPR might support in coming decades will likely influence overall breeding population sizes and sustainable harvest objectives across North America.

Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dak↗