The impact of future changes in climate on breeding waterfowl pairs in the US Prairie Pothole Region

Abstract

Millions of small (< 10 ha) waterbodies embedded in grassland and agroecosystems in midcontinental North America provide breeding habitat to an estimated 50–80% of North America’s migratory ducks. Tens of millions of dollars are invested annually to conserve and enhance upland and wetland habitats for breeding ducks by prioritizing locations predicted to have high densities of breeding pairs under average precipitation conditions. An implicit assumption of this approach is that the distribution of breeding habitat remains relatively static. Climate change is an identified risk to this strategy. To assess this assumption and plan for potential forthcoming conditions, we estimated changes in potential breeding duck pairs under different climate scenarios by combining results of 1) a mechanistic hydrology model that simulates ecosystem processes for a subset of wetlands distributed across the U.S. Prairie Pothole Region (USPPR); 2) four downscaled climate model projections at mid- and late-century time horizons; and 3) U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service multi-decadal datasets and predictive breeding waterfowl pair statistical models. We conducted virtual and in-person informational sessions with partners to inform them on the best practices of using downscaled global circulation models and approaches for climate scenario planning. This close coordination led to a joint presentation at a monthly North Central Climate Adaptation Science Center seminar. We are also co-developing simulated wetland- waterfowl responses under different climate futures for wetlands. Information from these robust predictions of waterfowl habitat and settling patterns in this region provides land-management agencies insights in prioritizing current conservation actions given uncertainty. In addition, understanding how many breeding pairs the USPPR might support in coming decades will likely influence overall breeding population sizes and sustainable harvest objectives across North America.