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At least 955 records · Page 53Linked to original sources

Gap-filling eddy covariance methane fluxes: Comparison of machine learning model predictions and uncertainties at FLUXNET-CH4 wetlands

Time series of wetland methane fluxes measured by eddy covariance require gap-filling to estimate daily, seasonal, and annual emissions. Gap-filling methane fluxes is challenging because of high variability and complex responses to multiple drivers. To date, there is no widely established gap-filling standard for wetland methane fluxes, with regards both to the best model algorithms and predictors. This study synthesizes results of different gap-filling methods systematically applied at 17 wetland sites spanning boreal to tropical regions and including all major wetland classes and two rice paddies. Procedures are proposed for: 1) creating realistic artificial gap scenarios, 2) training and evaluating gap-filling models without overstating performance, and 3) predicting half-hourly methane fluxes and annual emissions with realistic uncertainty estimates. Performance is compared between a conventional method (marginal distribution sampling) and four machine learning algorithms. The conventional method achieved similar median performance as the machine learning models but was worse than the best machine learning models and relatively insensitive to predictor choices. Of the machine learning models, decision tree algorithms performed the best in cross-validation experiments, even with a baseline predictor set, and artificial neural networks showed comparable performance when using all predictors. Soil temperature was frequently the most important predictor whilst water table depth was important at sites with substantial water table fluctuations, highlighting the value of data on wetland soil conditions. Raw gap-filling uncertainties from the machine learning models were underestimated and we propose a method to calibrate uncertainties to observations. The python code for model development, evaluation, and uncertainty estimation is publicly available. This study outlines a modular and robust machine learning workflow and makes recommendations for, and evaluates an improved baseline of, methane gap-filling models that can be implemented in multi-site syntheses or standardized products from regional and global flux networks (e.g., FLUXNET).

Agricultural and Forest Meteorology↗

High tides and rising seas: potential effects on estuarine waterbirds

Coastal waterbirds are vulnerable to water-level changes especially under predictions of accelerating sea-level rise and increased storm frequency in the next century. Tidal and wind-driven fluctuations in water levels affecting marshes, their invertebrate communities, and their dependent waterbirds are manifested in daily, monthly, seasonal, annual, and supra-annual (e.g., decadal or 18.6-yr) periodicities. Superimposed on these cyclic patterns is a long-term (50?80 yr) increase in relative sea-level rise that varies from about 2?4 + mm/yr along the Atlantic coastline. At five study sites selected on marsh islands from Cape Cod, Massachusetts to coastal Virginia, we monitored marsh elevation changes and flooding, tide variations over time, and waterbird use. We found from longterm marsh core data that marsh elevations at three of five sites may not be sufficient to maintain pace with current sea-level rise. Results of the short-term (3?4 yr) measures using surface elevation tables suggest a more dramatic difference, with marsh elevation change at four of five sites falling below relative sea-level rise. In addition, we have found a significant increase (in three of four cases) in the rate of surface marsh flooding in New Jersey and Virginia over the past 70?80 yr during May?July when waterbirds are nesting on or near the marsh surface. Short-term, immediate effects of flooding will jeopardize annual fecundity of many species of concern to federal and state agencies, most notably American Black Duck (Anas rubripes), Nelson?s Sharp-tailed Sparrow (Ammodramus nelsoni), Saltmarsh Sharp-tailed Sparrow (A. caudacutus), Seaside Sparrow (A. maritima), Coastal Plain Swamp Sparrow (Melospiza georgiana nigrescens), Black Rail (Laterallus jamaicensis), Forster?s Tern (Sterna forsteri), Gull-billed Tern (S. nilotica), Black Skimmer (Rynchops niger), and American Oystercatcher (Haemotopus palliatus). Forster?s Terns are probably most at risk given the large proportion of their breeding range in the mid-Atlantic and their saltmarsh specialization. At a scale of 1?2 decades, vegetation changes (saltmeadow cordgrass [Spartina patens] and salt grass [Distichlis spicata] converting to smooth cordgrass [Spartina alternifl ora]), interior pond expansion and erosion of marshes will reduce nesting habitat for many of these species, but may enhance feeding habitat of migrant shorebirds and/or migrant or wintering waterfowl. At scales of 50?100 yr, reversion of marsh island complexes to open water may enhance populations of open-bay waterfowl, e.g., Bufflehead (Bucephala albeola) and Canvasback (Aythya valisneria), but reduce nesting habitats dramatically for the above named marsh-nesting species, may reduce estuarine productivity by loss of the detrital food web and nursery habitat for fish and invertebrates, and cause redistribution of waterfowl, shorebirds, and other species. Such scenarios are more likely to occur in the mid- and north Atlantic regions since these estuaries are lower in sediment delivery on average than those in the Southeast. A simple hypothetical example from New Jersey is presented where waterbirds are forced to shift from submerged natural marshes to nearby impoundments, resulting in roughly a 10-fold increase in density. Whether prey fauna are sufficiently abundant to support this level of increase remains an open question, but extreme densities in confined habitats would exacerbate competition, increase disease risk, and possibly increase predation.

Book chapter↗

U.S. Geological Survey science for the Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative: 2011 annual report

This is the fourth report produced by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) for the Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative (WLCI) to detail annual work activities. In FY2011, there were 37 ongoing, completed, or new projects conducted under the five major multi-disciplinary science and technical-assistance activities: (1) Baseline Synthesis, (2) Targeted Monitoring and Research, (3) Data and Information Management, (4) Integration and Coordination, and (5) Decisionmaking and Evaluation. The four new work activities were (1) development of the Western Energy Citation Clearinghouse, a Web-based energy-resource database of references for literature and on-line resources focused on energy development and its effects on natural resources; (2) a study to support the Sublette County Conservation District in ascertaining potential water-quality impacts to the New Fork River from energy development in the Pinedale Anticline Project Area; (3) a study to test the efficacy of blending high-frequency temporal data provided by Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensors and high-resolution Landsat data for providing the fine-resolution data required to evaluate habitat responses to management activities at the landscape level; and (4) a study to examine the seasonal water chemistry of Muddy Creek, including documenting salinity patterns and providing a baseline for assessing potential effects of energy and other development on water quality in the Muddy Creek watershed. Two work activities were completed in FY2011: (1) the assessment of rancher perceptions of energy development in Southwest Wyoming and (2) mapping aspen stands and conifer encroachment using classification and regression tree (CART) analysis for effectiveness monitoring. The USGS continued to compile data, develop geospatial products, and upgrade Web-based products in support of both individual and overall WLCI efforts, including (1) ranking and prioritizing proposed conservation projects, (2) developing the WLCI integrated assessment, (3) developing the WLCI 5-year Conservation Action Plan, and (4) continuing to upgrade the content and improve the functionality of the WLCI Web site. For the WLCI FY2012 annual report, a decision was made to greatly reduce the overall length of the annual report, which will be accomplished by simplifying the report format and focusing on the take-home messages of each work activity for WLCI partners.

Wyoming↗

Groundwater-level elevations in the Denver Basin bedrock aquifers and Upper Black Squirrel Creek alluvial aquifer, El Paso County, Colorado, 2021–24

El Paso County is the second-most populous county in Colorado and is projected to grow another 15 percent by 2030. Within El Paso County is the Upper Black Squirrel Creek Designated Groundwater Basin (Black Squirrel Basin), an area where surface water is scarce and water users rely primarily on groundwater from five different aquifers (the Upper Black Squirrel Creek alluvial aquifer and four bedrock aquifers within the Denver Basin aquifer system: the lower Dawson, Denver, Arapahoe, and Laramie-Fox Hills aquifers) to meet their needs. Currently (2024), land within the Upper Black Squirrel Creek Basin is primarily used for rural grazing and agriculture; however, municipal development is ongoing. In 2021, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Upper Black Squirrel Creek Ground Water Management District, began a study to establish a baseline dataset and assess the groundwater resources of the aquifers within the Black Squirrel Basin. A network of 39 wells was established in 2021; discrete groundwater-level measurements were made bimonthly. Nine of the 39 wells were equipped with pressure transducers to record hourly groundwater-level data. Seven wells had statistically significant seasonal trends, and trends at 3 wells were negative. For the discrete data, 16 wells had a significant trend for the study period, and 4 wells had negative trends. For the time-series data, 8 wells had significant trends, and 3 wells had negative trends. Potentiometric surface maps were created for this study using discrete, static groundwater levels measured in April 2023. These maps showed the estimated groundwater flow direction from the north-northwest to the south-southeast in the alluvial aquifer and from the northwest to the east-southeast for the lower Dawson and Denver aquifer wells. This study indicates the potential benefit of monitoring wells in the areas near municipal pumping. Additional monitoring could lead to a better understanding of connectivity between aquifers and be an important tool for assessing long-term sustainability of groundwater use.

Colorado↗

Spatial and temporal variation of stream chemistry associated with contrasting geology and land-use patterns in the Chesapeake Bay watershed—Summary of results from Smith Creek, Virginia; Upper Chester River, Maryland; Conewago Creek, Pennsylvania; and Difficult Run, Virginia, 2010–2013

Despite widespread and ongoing implementation of conservation practices throughout the Chesapeake Bay watershed, water quality continues to be degraded by excess sediment and nutrient inputs. While the Chesapeake Bay Program has developed and maintains a large-scale and long-term monitoring network to detect improvements in water quality throughout the watershed, fewer resources have been allocated for monitoring smaller watersheds, even though water-quality improvements that may result from the implementation of conservation practices are likely to be first detected at smaller watershed scales. In 2010, the U.S. Geological Survey partnered with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and the U.S. Department of Agriculture to initiate water-quality monitoring in four selected small watersheds that were targeted for increased implementation of conservation practices. Smith Creek watershed is an agricultural watershed in the Shenandoah Valley of Virginia that is dominated by cattle and poultry production, and the Upper Chester River watershed is an agricultural watershed on the Eastern Shore of Maryland that is dominated by row-cropping activities. The Conewago Creek watershed is an agricultural watershed in southeastern Pennsylvania that is characterized by mixed agricultural activities. The fourth watershed, Difficult Run, is a suburban watershed in northern Virginia that is dominated by medium density residential development. The objective of this study was to investigate spatial and temporal variations in water chemistry and suspended sediment in these four relatively small watersheds that represent a range of land-use patterns and underlying geology to (1) characterize current water-quality conditions in these watersheds, and (2) identify the dominant sources, sinks, and transport processes in each watershed. The general study design involved two components. The first included intensive routine water-quality monitoring at an existing streamgage within each study area (including continuous water-quality monitoring as well as discrete water-quality sampling) to develop a detailed understanding of the temporal and hydrologic variability in stream chemistry and sediment transport in each watershed. The second component involved extensive water-quality monitoring at various sites throughout each watershed to develop a detailed understanding of spatial patterns. Both components were used to improve understanding of sources and transport processes affecting stream chemistry, including nutrients and suspended sediments, and their implications for detecting long-term trends related to best management practices. This report summarizes the results of monitoring that was performed from April 2010 through September 2013. Individual Small Watershed Summaries Summaries for each of the four small watersheds are presented below. Each watershed has a more descriptive and detailed section in the report, but these summaries may be particularly useful for some watershed managers and stakeholders desiring slightly less technical detail. Smith Creek Smith Creek is a 105.39-mi 2 watershed within the Shenandoah Valley that drains to the North Fork Shenandoah River. The long-term Smith Creek base-flow index is 72.3 percent, indicating that on average, approximately 72 percent of Smith Creek flow was base flow, which suggests that Smith Creek streamflow is dominated by groundwater discharge rather than stormwater runoff. A series of cluster and principal components analyses demonstrated that the majority of the variability in Smith Creek water quality could be attributed to hydrologic and seasonal variability. Statistically significant positive correlations with flow were observed for turbidity, suspended sediments, total nitrogen, ammonium, orthophosphate, iron, total phosphorus, and the ratio of calcium to magnesium. Statistically significant inverse correlations with flow were observed for specific conductance, magnesium, δ 15 N of nitrate, pH, bicarbonate, calcium, and δ 18 O of nitrate. Of particular note, flow and nitrate were not statistically significantly correlated, likely because of the relatively complex concentration-discharge relationship observed in continuous and discrete datasets. Statistically significant seasonal patterns were observed for numerous water-quality constituents: water temperature, turbidity, orthophosphate, total phosphorus, suspended-sediment concentration, and silica were higher during the warm season, but pH, dissolved oxygen, and sulfate were higher during the cool season. Surrogate regression models were developed to compute sediment and nutrient loads in Smith Creek using the continuous water-quality monitors. The mean Smith Creek in-stream sediment load was approximately 6,900 tons per year, with nearly 90 percent of the sediment load over the 3-year study period contributed during the eight largest storm events during that period. The Smith Creek total phosphorus load was approximately 21,000 pounds of phosphorus per year, with the majority of the load contributed during stormflow periods, although a substantial phosphorus load still occurs during base-flow conditions. The Smith Creek total nitrogen load was approximately 400,000 pounds per year, with total nitrogen accumulation less dominated by stormflow contributions (as was the case for sediment and total phosphorus) and strongly affected by base-flow export of nitrogen from the basin. Extensive water-quality monitoring throughout the Smith Creek watershed revealed how the complex geology and hydrology interacted to result in variable water chemistry. During relatively dry and low base-flow periods, much of the discharge in Smith Creek was contributed by a single dominant spring—Lacey Spring. During wetter base-flow periods, the flows in Smith Creek were largely generated by a mixture of headwater springs and forested mountain tributaries with very different geochemical composition. The headwater springs generally issued from limestone bedrock and were characterized as having relatively high nitrate, specific conductance, calcium, and magnesium, as well as relatively low concentrations of phosphorus, ammonium, iron, and manganese. The undeveloped, high-gradient, forested mountain sites were generally characterized by low ionic strength waters with low nutrient concentrations. Nitrate isotope data from the limestone springs generally were consistent with manure-derived nitrogen sources (such as cattle and poultry), although the possibility of other mixed sources cannot be excluded. Nitrate isotope data from the undeveloped, high-gradient forested mountain sites were more consistent with nitrogen from undisturbed soils, atmospheric deposition, or nitrogen fixation. Regardless of the nitrogen source, oxygen isotope data indicate that the nitrate was largely a result of nitrification. Land-use data indicate that manure sources of nitrogen dominated watershed nitrogen inputs. Phosphorus sources were less well studied. The presence of a single point-source discharge near the town of New Market contributed the majority of the phosphorus to Smith Creek under base-flow conditions, but nonpoint sources of phosphorus dominated the loading to Smith Creek during stormflow periods. Implementation of conservation practices increased in the Smith Creek watershed during the study period, and even though a broad range of practice types was implemented, the most common practices included stream fencing (for cattle exclusion), the development of nutrient management plans, conservation crop rotation, and the planting of cover crops. While the implementation of these conservation practices is encouraging, results indicate small increases in nitrate concentrations at the streamgage over the last 29 years, concurrent with small decreases in nitrate fluxes. It will likely be years before the cumulative effect of these practices can be detected in the Smith Creek water quality, and the magnitude of the effect of these conservation practices detected in Smith Creek will depend largely on whether nutrient loading (of manure and commercial fertilizer) is reduced over time. Upper Chester River The Upper Chester River watershed includes the 36-square-mile (mi 2 ) watershed area around several nontidal tributaries that drain into the tidal Chester River. The streamgage is on Chesterville Branch, the largest nontidal tributary (approximately 6.12 mi 2 ) and is the site for continuous water-quality monitoring for this project. The base-flow index at Chesterville Branch is about 72 percent and indicates that, as in most of the Coastal Plain, groundwater is the greatest contributor to streamflow. As such, more than 90 percent of the nitrogen in the stream is in the form of nitrate from groundwater. Continuous and discrete data collected at Chesterville Branch show the effects of streamflow and season on water quality. Significantly positive correlations with flow were observed for ammonium, dissolved and total phosphorus, sediment, and turbidity as runoff carried these constituents from the land surface into Chesterville Branch. Other constituents that increased significantly with flow include potassium, sulfate, iron, and manganese, which are likely contributed from near-stream areas and ponds with high organic-matter content. Total nitrogen, pH, and specific conductance, along with chemical constituents associated with groundwater inputs including nitrate, calcium, ratio of calcium to magnesium, silica, bicarbonate, and sodium, were negatively correlated with flow because concentrations of these constituents were diluted by runoff. Seasonal differences in water chemistry, which are most likely related to increased biologic effects on the uptake and release of chemicals in the stream and near-stream areas, also were observed. Water temperature, orthophosphate, δ 15 N of nitrate, bicarbonate, sodium, and the ratio of sodium to chloride were higher during the warm season, and dissolved oxygen, total nitrogen, nitrate, magnesium, sulfate, and manganese were higher during the cool season. Surrogate-regression models developed by using continuous water-quality data showed that the annual sediment load for the 2013 water year was about 2,600 tons, with more than 90 percent of this sediment contributed during two storms. The total phosphorus load in 2013 was about 13,000 pounds with more than 90 percent contributed during the same two storms as sediment. The load of total nitrogen, 140,000 pounds, accumulated steadily throughout the 2013 water year as nitrate in groundwater continuously discharged into the stream. The same two large storms that contributed 90 percent of the suspended-sediment and total phosphorus load only contributed about 20 percent of the annual total nitrogen load. Extensive water-quality monitoring of stream base flow throughout the Upper Chester River watershed identified how differences in land use and hydrogeology affected water chemistry. In parts of the watershed with well-drained soil and thick sandy aquifer sediments, concentrations of nitrate and other chemicals associated with fertilizer and lime application increased in streams as agricultural land use increased. More than 90 percent of the nitrogen in streams from these areas was in the form of nitrate, and concentrations ranged from about 5 milligrams per liter (mg/L) to 8 mg/L as nitrogen in the two largest tributaries. Stream nitrate concentrations were about 1 mg/L as nitrogen where soils were more poorly drained, the surficial aquifer sediments were thinner, and forests and wetlands were more widespread than agriculture. Nitrate isotope data were consistent with inorganic fertilizers ± atmospheric deposition and N 2 fixation as sources of nitrogen, and with nitrification as the dominant nitrate-forming process. Nitrate reduction was indicated by elevated δ 15 N and δ 18 O values in some samples from streams draining watersheds with poorly drained soils. An analysis of land-use data and SPARROW modeling input data attributed almost 90 percent of the nitrogen sources in the Upper Chester River watershed to inorganic fertilizer and fixation of atmospheric nitrogen by legumes, which is in agreement with the isotopic characteristics of nitrate in this watershed. Local sources of manure are limited in this area. Total phosphorus concentrations during base flow ranged from below detection to about 0.2 mg/L. Stream phosphorus concentrations during base flow were generally lower than those measured during storms because most phosphorus transport likely occurs as phosphorus attached to sediment particles during runoff. Because manure is not widely used in this area, the major source of phosphorus is likely fertilizer. The implementation of conservation practices in the Upper Chester River watershed increased substantially during the study period, with a total implementation of 1,194 U.S. Department of Agriculture-compliant practices. The most frequently used practices were oriented towards nutrient and sediment control, including cover crops, nutrient management planning, conservation crop rotation, conservation tillage, and irrigation management. The current Chesapeake Bay model for this area predicts that implementation of best management practices should result in a 13-percent decrease in overall delivery of nitrogen to the Upper Chester River. Because most nitrogen travels through the groundwater system for years to decades before being discharged to streams, the time period of monitoring was not sufficient to see the effects of these practices on water quality. The magnitude of the effect that may eventually be detected will depend on the degree to which nitrate leaching into the groundwater system is reduced over time. Loadings of phosphorus and sediment are primarily transported during large runoff events and are difficult to control and analyze for trends because of their timing and episodic nature. Conewago Creek Conewago Creek has two primary monitoring locations—one near the middle of the 47-mi 2 watershed and the other near the outlet just upstream of the Susquehanna River. The base-flow index was 47.3 percent for 2012–2013, indicating that on average, approximately 53 percent of the streamflow in Conewago Creek exited the watershed as surface flow, which suggests that the stormwater runoff was somewhat greater than groundwater discharge (base flow). A series of cluster and principal components analyses demonstrated that the majority of the variability in the Conewago Creek water quality could be attributed to hydrologic and seasonal variability. Statistically significant positive correlations with flow were observed at both monitoring sites for ammonium, total phosphorus, orthophosphate, iron, and manganese; additionally, at the upstream monitoring station, total nitrogen demonstrated a statistically significant positive correlation with flow. Statistically significant inverse correlations with flow were observed at both sites for water temperature, specific conductance (at the downstream site only), sulfate, chloride, calcium, and magnesium. Statistically significant seasonal patterns were observed for several water-quality constituents. Water temperature, phosphorus (upstream site only), and orthophosphate were higher during the warm season, and nitrate and total nitrogen (upstream site only) were higher during the cool season. Surrogate regression models were developed to compute sediment and nutrient load in Conewago Creek by using the continuous water-quality monitors and water-quality samples. Conewago Creek sediment load was approximately 9,900 tons in 2012 and approximately 18,900 tons in 2013, with nearly 80 percent of the sediment load in 2013 contributed by the three largest storm events. Annual total nitrogen loads could not be estimated due to poor model performance. The addition of continued monitoring or a continuously recording nitrate sensor could improve estimates of total nitrogen loads. During 2012 and 2013, phosphorus loads in Conewago Creek were approximately 50,000 pounds in each year. Combining data from one high-flow synoptic sampling with the data from routine sampling revealed how the geology and hydrology interact to result in variable water chemistry throughout the Conewago Creek watershed. The areas above the upstream gage in the headwaters are generally underlain by forested non-carbonate bedrock and are characterized by relatively low nitrate, specific conductance, calcium, and magnesium, as well as relatively low concentrations of phosphorus, ammonium, iron, and manganese. The more developed, agricultural areas below the upstream site were generally characterized by higher ionic strength waters with higher nutrient and metal concentrations. An analysis of land-use data and SPAtially Referenced Regressions On Watershed (SPARROW) modeling data indicates that manure sources of nitrogen dominate the input of nitrogen to the watershed. Implementation of conservation practices increased in the Conewago Creek watershed during the study period, and while a broad range of practice types were implemented, the most common practices included residue and tillage management, cover crops, nutrient management, terracing, and stream fencing (for animal exclusion or bank restoration). While the implementation of these conservation practices is encouraging, the cumulative effects of these practices probably will not be detected in Conewago Creek water quality for several years. The magnitude of the effects of these conservation practices on water quality in Conewago Creek will depend largely on the extent to which nutrient loading (septic, manure, and commercial fertilizer) and sediment-producing activities are reduced over time. Difficult Run The Difficult Run watershed is a 57.82-mi 2 watershed that drains to the Potomac River. The long-term Difficult Run base-flow index (from 1936 to 2010) was 57.9, indicating that approximately 58 percent of streamflow exited the watershed as base flow and 42 percent as stormflow; however, with continued development and urbanization of the watershed, the base-flow index has decreased to 50 percent during the last 20 years. This base-flow index was less than those of the other watersheds evaluated in this study, likely because the Difficult Run watershed largely is underlain by crystalline piedmont metamorphic rocks and has a greater proportion of impervious urban land cover. A series of cluster and principal components analyses indicated that most of the variability in Difficult Run water quality could be attributed to hydrologic variability and seasonality. Statistically significant positive correlations with flow were observed for turbidity, dissolved oxygen, suspended sediments, ammonium, orthophosphate, iron, and total phosphorus. Statistically significant inverse correlations with flow were observed for water temperature, pH, specific conductance, bicarbonate, calcium, magnesium, nitrate, δ 15 N of nitrate, and silica. Statistically significant seasonal patterns were observed for numerous water-quality constituents: water temperature, ammonium, orthophosphate, and δ 15 N of nitrate were higher during the warm season, and dissolved oxygen, nitrate, and manganese were higher during the cool season. Surrogate regression models were developed to compute sediment and nutrient loading rates. The Difficult Run sediment load was approximately 8,000 tons per year, with greater than 95 percent of the sediment load in the 2013 water year contributed by the seven largest storm events. The total phosphorus load in Difficult Run was approximately 14,000 pounds of phosphorus per year, with the majority of the load contributed during stormflow periods. The total nitrogen load in Difficult Run is estimated to have been approximately 140,000 pounds per year, with total nitrogen accumulation less dominated by stormflow contributions than that of phosphorus and strongly affected by base-flow export of nitrogen from the basin. Extensive water-quality monitoring throughout the Difficult Run watershed revealed relatively uniform generation of flow per unit of watershed area, as well as spatial variation in water quality that is strongly related to land-use activities. Elevated nitrate concentrations were observed in a subset of monitoring sites that are inversely correlated with population density and positively correlated to the septic system density within each subwatershed. The majority of the elevated nitrate concentrations for these sites are hypothesized to be caused by nitrate leaching from septic systems, more so than homeowner fertilizer usage among these subwatersheds that have lower population densities than other parts of the watershed. Nitrate isotope data, temporal patterns in the water-quality data, mass-balance computations, and a separate land-use analysis all generally indicate that leachate from septic systems was the likely source of the elevated nitrate. Another group of water-quality sites have relatively low nitrogen concentrations, are located in areas that are served by city sewer lines, and have experienced stream restoration activities. A final group of sites drained the areas with the highest imperviousness and had strongly elevated specific conductance, chloride, and sodium, which were likely caused by a combination of road salting and other anthropogenic sources draining these urbanized areas in the watershed. A fourth group of sites represents a mixture of water sources and had water quality similar to that at the Difficult Run streamgage. Analysis of the nitrate isotope data generally indicates a broad range of composition indicative of mixed natural and anthropogenic nitrogen sources. Implementation of conservation practices increased in the Difficult Run watershed during the study period, and while a broad range of practice types was implemented, the most common practices included stream restoration. While the implementation of these conservation practices is encouraging, the cumulative effect of these practices probably will not be detected in Difficult Run water quality for several years.

Maryland, Pennsylvania, Virginia↗

Attenuation of runoff and chemical loads in grass filter strips at two cattle feedlots, Minnesota, 1995-98

Attenuation of cattle feedlot runoff in two grass-covered filter strips in Minnesota was estimated by measuring chemical loads into and out of the strips. Filter strips of the Bock and Sanborn sites were 60-m long and 20-m wide and received runoff from cattle feedlots that supported 35 and 225 cattle, respectively. Feedlot and filter-strip runoff were measured using flumes with stage sensors. Water samples were collected using automated samplers. Attenuation values were calculated from four storm-runoff events. Ground water sampled beneath and outside the filter strips indicated some infiltration losses of sulfate, chloride, and nitrogen at the Bock site where soil permeability was greater than at the Sanborn site. Chemical constituents in filter-strip runoff, and their corresponding ranges of attenuation were as follows: chemical oxygen demand, 30–81 percent; dissolved chloride, 6–79 percent; dissolved sulfate, -3–82 percent; dissolved ammonia nitrogen, 33–80 percent; suspended ammonia plus organic nitrogen, 29–85 percent; dissolved organic nitrogen, 14–75 percent; suspended phosphorus, 24–82 percent; dissolved phosphorus, 14–72 percent; and fecal coliform bacteria, 18–79 percent. The ranges seem to be affected by barriers of direct contact of the runoff water with the soil. This varies seasonally by coverage of the soil by ice in winter and vegetation in summer months. Greater attenuation values occurred in October and May when mats of wilted, flat-lying grass covered the filter strips; attenuation values were less during the summer when tall growing grass covered the filter strips.

Minnesota↗

Preliminary analysis of the hydrologic effects of temporary shutdowns of the Rondout-West Branch Water Tunnel on the groundwater-flow system in Wawarsing, New York

Flooding of streets and residential basements, and bacterial contamination of private-supply wells with Escherichia coli (E. coli) are recurring problems in the Rondout Valley near the Town of Wawarsing, Ulster County, New York. Leakage from the Rondout-West Branch (RWB) Water Tunnel and above-normal precipitation have been suspected of causing elevated groundwater levels and basement flooding. The hydrology of a 12-square-mile study area within the Town of Wawarsing was studied during 2008-10. A network of 41 wells (23 unconsolidated-aquifer and 18 bedrock wells) and 2 surface-water sites was used to monitor the hydrologic effects of four RWB Water Tunnel shutdowns. The study area is underlain by a sequence of northeast-trending sedimentary rocks that include limestone, shale, and sandstone. The bedrock contains dissolution features, fractures, and faults. Inflows that ranged from less than 1 to more than 9,000 gallons per minute from the fractured bedrock were documented during construction of the 13.5-foot-diameter RWB Water Tunnel through the sedimentary-rock sequence 710 feet (ft) beneath the study-area valley. Glacial sediments infill the valley above the bedrock sequence and consist of clay, silt, sand, and gravel. The groundwater-flow system in the valley consists of both fractured-rock and unconsolidated aquifers. Water levels in both the bedrock and unconsolidated aquifers respond to variations in seasonal precipitation. During the past 9 years (2002-10), annual precipitation at Central Park, N.Y., has exceeded the 141-year mean. Potentiometric-surface maps indicate that groundwater in the bedrock flows from the surrounding hills on the east and west sides of the valley toward the center of the valley, and ultimately toward the northeast. On average, water levels in the bedrock aquifer had seasonal differences of 5.3 ft. Analysis of hydrographs of bedrock wells indicates that many of these wells are affected by the RWB Tunnel leakage. Tunnel-leakage influences (water level and temperature changes) in the bedrock aquifer were measured at distances up to 7,000 ft from the RWB Tunnel. Water levels in the bedrock changed as much as 12 ft within 0.5 hour during tunnel shutdowns. Nine of the 10 wells that responded to the shutdowns showed a water-level response of 5 ft or greater. Changes in water levels ranged from 1.5 to 12 ft, with tunnel-leakage influence delay times ranging from 0.5 to 60 hours. Many of the longest tunnel-influence delay times and smallest water-level changes were in wells located closest to the tunnel in shale. Tunnel-influence response of the bedrock aquifer is consistent with its preliminary characterization as an anisotropic aquifer with greater transmissivity along bedding strike than across bedding strike. This tunnel-influence response is also consistent with the likely presence of discrete high-transmissivity networks along fractured limestone beds that have undergone dissolution. A lack of bedrock observation wells in half of the study area hampered a more thorough analysis of the extent of leakage from the RWB Tunnel in the study area. On average, water levels in the unconsolidated aquifer had a seasonal difference of 5.0 ft. Some unconsolidated-aquifer wells indicated water-level changes due to tunnel leakage. The locations of unconsolidated-aquifer wells with measurable water-level changes due to tunnel leakage correlated with those in the bedrock. Water levels in the unconsolidated aquifer changed as much as 2.5 ft within 18 hours of tunnel shutdowns, but water-level changes in some unconsolidated-aquifer wells were smaller or nonexistent.

New York↗

Effect of urban stormwater runoff on ground water beneath recharge basins on Long Island, New York

Urban stormwater runoff was monitored during 1980-82 to investigate the source, type, quantity, and fate of contaminants routed to the more than 3,000 recharge basins on Long Island and to determine whether this runoff might be a significant source of contamination to the groundwater reservoir. Forty-six storms were monitored at five recharge basins in representative land use areas (strip commercial, shopping-mall parking lot, major highway, low-density residential, and medium-density residential). Runoff:precipitation ratios indicate that all storm runoff is derived from precipitation on impervious surfaces in the drainage area, except during storms of high intensity or long duration, when additional runoff can be derived from precipitation on permeable surfaces. Lead was present in highway runoff in concentrations up to 3300 micrograms/L, and chloride was found in parking lot runoff concentrations up to 1,100 mg/L during winter, when salt is used for deicing. In the five composite stormwater samples and nine groundwater grab samples that were analyzed for 113 EPA-designated ' priority pollutants, ' four constituents were detected in concentrations exceeding New York State guidelines of 50 micrograms/L for an individual organic compound in drinking water: p-chloro-m-cresol (79 micrograms/L); 2 ,4-dimethylphenol (96 micrograms/L); 4-nitrophenol (58 micrograms/L); and methylene chloride (230 micrograms/L in either groundwater or stormwater at the highway basin). One stormwater sample and two groundwater samples exceeded New York State guidelines for total organic compounds in drinking water (100 micrograms/L). The presence of these constituents is attributed to contamination from point sources rather than to the quality of runoff from urban areas. The median number of indicator bacteria in stormwater ranged from 0.1 to 10 billion MPN/100 ml. Fecal coliforms and fecal streptococci increased by 1 to 2 orders of magnitude during the warm season. The use of recharge basins to dispose of storm runoff does not appear to have significant adverse effects on groundwater quality in terms of the chemical and microbiological stormwater constituents studied. (Author 's abstract)

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

Experimental analysis and simulation modeling of forest management impacts on wood thrushes, Hylocichla mustelina

North American Breeding Bird Survey data show that wood thrush (Hylocichla mustelina) populations in eastern U.S. forests have declined 1.8% per year during 1966-95. The declining quality of breeding forest tracts in North America is one possible cause for the apparent decline of some neotropical migratory birds, such as the wood thrush. In Georgia, however, wood thrush populations have declined during a period of increasing pine forest area and larger patch sizes. We hypothesized that forest management practices such as thinning and prescribed burning might create unsuitable habitat for wood thrushes. We conducted a four-year before/after, treatment/control experiment at the Piedmont National Wildlife Refuge in central Georgia to study to the effects of a treatment of thinning and prescribed burning on wood thrush demographic parameters. We simultaneously monitored wood thrush adults and juveniles with mark-recapture, radio-telemetry, nest searches, and plot-map surveys. Our analyses showed that wood thrushes were less likely to emigrate from the study compartments after the treatment, and wood thrushes exhibited some tendency to increase preference for hardwood habitats and decrease preference for pine habitats following the treatment. However, we observed no effects of treatment on nest success, adult survival, and adult and juvenile dispersal distances. We also found that female wood thrushes had lower survival rates than males during the breeding season, and we documented large-scale, within-year dispersal movements of adult (up to 17 km) and juvenile (up to 7 km) wood thrushes. We conclude that landscape level habitat quantity and quality must be considered during songbird management decisions. The documentation of sex- and age-specific wood thrush survival and movement rates was critical for construction of a set of population models. We used three stochastic models to learn more about wood thrush population dynamics and make predictions about population growth rates, reproductive success, and the effect of habitat changes on wood thrush populations. The simplest source/sink population model suggests that the Piedmont National Wildlife Refuge's wood thrush population is probably stable or increasing, and wood thrush populations in treated areas had higher growth rates than birds in untreated areas. We were able to use the individual-based model of wood thrush productivity to predict fecundity, a parameter that we could not measure directly in the field. Again, females on treated areas had higher fecundity than birds on untreated areas. Our spatially-based model predicted that wood thrush populations should respond positively to predicted changes in the age/size class structure of the Refuge's pine forests. Our model also showed that most wood thrushes leave the Refuge's forest compartments during the breeding season, and these dispersal movements are extremely important to understanding and managing wood thrush populations. The use of prescribed burning and retention shelterwood silviculture at the Piedmont National Wildlife Refuge does not appear to negatively affect the local wood thrush population. Continued use of the current management regime should result in adequate nesting, foraging, and escape habitats for wood thrushes. However, landscape-level habitat availability and quality, including lands outside the Refuge, must be considered when making management decisions that may affect wood thrushes.

Book↗

Fluctuations in a metapopulation of nesting four-toed salamanders, Hemidactylium scutatum, in the Great Smoky Mountains National Park, USA, 1999-2003

We tested two predictions associated with the hypothesis that certain populations of pond-breeding amphibians are structured into metapopulations using minimum relative abundance estimates of nesting four-toed salamanders (Hemidactylium scutatum Schlegel) from 11 different ponds in the Great Smoky Mountains National Park. Coefficients of variation (CV) for counts at individual ponds ranged from 0.25 to 1.26, and the overall mean CV at all 11 ponds was 0.34. Many pairs of ponds had negative correlations in abundance from 1999-2003, whereas others had various degrees of positive correlation (mean r = 0.29). Thus, nesting population size fluctuated semi-independently among the ponds from year to year, inferring the existence of inter-pond dispersal. The mean number of nesting females at a pond was negatively, but non-significantly, correlated (r = -0.27; P = 0.40; 10 d.f.) to the pond's isolation. Owing to physiological constraints on plethodontid salamander energetics, precipitation during the nesting season (February and March) appeared to play an important role (r = 0.78; P = 0.12; 4 d.f.) in the number of nesting females we observed. Unlike some other plethodontid salamander populations in more fragmented southern Appalachian forest ecosystems, this (meta)population within Great Smoky Mountains National Park does not appear to be declining.

North carolina, Tennessee↗

Water quality variability in San Francisco Bay, Some gGeneral lessons from 1996 sampling: 1996 annual report, San Francisco estuary regional monitoring program for trace substances

This report describes the results from the 1996 Regional Monitoring Program for Trace Substances (RMP). It is the fourth Annual Report from the RMP which began in 1993 and attempts to synthesize the most obvious data patterns from the last four years. This report includes data from Base Program monitoring activities, as well as results of Pilot and Special Studies conducted or completed in 1996. Additionally, several articles contributed by RMP investigators and others, are included. These articles provide perspective and insight on important contaminant issues identified by the RMP. This summary addresses which kinds of pollutants measured by the RMP appear to be at levels that warrant concern, what kinds of trends may be discerned, and which stations have consistently shown elevated contaminant levels. The goals or general objectives of the RMP are: 1. To obtain high quality baseline data describing the concentrations of toxic and potentially toxic trace elements and organic contaminants in the water and sediment of the San Francisco Estuary. 2. To determine seasonal and annual trends in chemical and biological water quality in the San Francisco Estuary. 3. To continue to develop a data set that can be used to determine long-term trends in the concentrations of toxic and potentially toxic trace elements and organic contaminants in the water and sediments of the San Francisco Estuary. 4. To determine whether water quality and sediment quality in the Estuary at large are in compliance with objectives established by the Basin Plan (the regulatory planning document used by the Regional Water Quality Control Board). 5. To provide a database on water and sediment quality in the Estuary which is compatible with data being developed in other ongoing studies, including wasteload allocation studies and model development, sediment quality objectives development, in-bay studies of dredged material disposal, Interagency Ecological Program (IEP) water quality studies, primary productivity studies, local effects biomonitoring programs, and state and federal mussel watch programs.

California↗

Lateral shoreline erosion and shore-proximal sediment deposition on a coastal marsh from seasonal, storm and decadal measurements

The persistence of coastal marsh is dependent on its ability to maintain elevation relative to sea level, particularly for marshes experiencing high rates of shoreline erosion due to wave-attack, storms, and sea level rise. Sediments eroded at the marsh edge are either delivered onto the marsh platform or into the estuary, the latter resulting in a net loss of marsh sediments and soil carbon. Knowledge on the timing, pattern, and quantity of sediment deposition versus shoreline erosion along the marsh-estuary interface is critical for evaluating the overall health and vulnerability of coastal marshes to future scenarios of sea level rise and for estimating sediment budgets . Here we examined marsh shoreline erosion and sediment deposition for marsh sites experiencing a range of shoreline erosion rates and different levels of wind-wave exposure within the Grand Bay National Estuarine Research Reserve and Wildlife Refuge in Mississippi. We developed a method for calculating an erosion-deposition sediment budget using marsh elevation profiles, shoreline erosion rate, and sediment deposition measurements. Sediment budgets were calculated at four sites with varying shoreline erosion rates. Much of the sediment eroded at the marsh edge can be accounted for as marsh platform deposition, except at the most erosive site, suggesting a possible erosion threshold where eroded sediment mass is greater than platform deposition. Consistent with other studies of marsh creeks, sediment delivery to the marsh platform appears to be largely driven by wave climate. These data suggest that for erosive bay-estuarine shorelines, sediment delivered into the marsh is largely concentrated near the marsh shoreline, although shoreline erosion does not always result in a net loss of sediments from the marsh system in either decadal or annual assessments.

Mississippi↗

Survey protocols drive heterogeneity in occupancy estimates that cannot be standardized using post hoc analyses

Site occupancy models are widely used to estimate species distributions from presence–nondetection data, yet for mobile animals, the true proportion of sites occupied varies in time. Thus, true occupancy and estimates generated from different protocols are affected by temporal characteristics of survey design. Here we tested whether we could standardize occupancy estimates across different sampling protocols with a post hoc statistical test. Using an individual-based movement model of Wood Thrush ( Hylocichla mustelina ), we simulated point count surveys across 3000 populations under 90 spatially and temporally variable sampling protocols. For each simulation, we fit a standard occupancy model, then used minute-level detections to truncate surveys and generate occupancy estimates across increasing survey lengths. We fit asymptotic models to these series to estimate intercepts (instantaneous occupancy) and asymptotes (longer-term occupancy) and evaluated how well they approximated true instantaneous, daily and seasonal occupancy. We were unable to recover instantaneous or seasonal occupancy from any approach. Both standard occupancy models and asymptotic regression (the top-performing asymptotic model) most closely approximated daily occupancy; although asymptotic regression produced slightly less biased estimates, it showed substantially greater variability, resulting in greater overall error. Our results show that post hoc analytical approaches cannot, at present, reliably standardize occupancy estimates across heterogeneous survey designs. Instead, ensuring biologically informative and comparable estimates will depend on standardized survey protocols. Practical implication : Monitoring programs using presence–nondetection data should prioritize consistent survey protocols when estimating occupancy for mobile species, with a focus on daily occupancy as the most attainable and useful metric. Although the highest accuracy and precision were achieved under the most intensive survey protocols, for point counts of Wood Thrush and similar species, four consecutive 15–20 min surveys provide near-optimal precision and can be completed in a single visit, making them well suited for estimating relative occupancy under logistical constraints. Three 20-min surveys spaced ~24 h apart closely approximate daily occupancy while maintaining reasonable precision. Developing similar protocols for other species and survey methods will be critical to ensuring comparable occupancy estimates across space and time.

Ecological Solutions and Evidence↗

Climate, streamflow, and legacy effects on growth of riparian Populus angustifolia in the arid San Luis Valley, Colorado

Knowledge of the factors affecting the vigor of desert riparian trees is important for their conservation and management. I used multiple regression to assess effects of streamflow and climate (12&ndash;14 years of data) or climate alone (up to 60 years of data) on radial growth of clonal narrowleaf cottonwood ( Populus angustifolia ), a foundation species in the arid, Closed Basin portion of the San Luis Valley, Colorado. I collected increment cores from trees (14&ndash;90 cm DBH) at four sites along each of Sand and Deadman creeks (total N = 85), including both perennial and ephemeral reaches. Analyses on trees <110 m from the stream channel explained 33&ndash;64% of the variation in standardized growth index (SGI) over the period having discharge measurements. Only 3 of 7 models included a streamflow variable; inclusion of prior-year conditions was common. Models for trees farther from the channel or over a deep water table explained 23&ndash;71% of SGI variability, and 4 of 5 contained a streamflow variable. Analyses using solely climate variables over longer time periods explained 17&ndash;85% of SGI variability, and 10 of 12 included a variable indexing summer precipitation. Three large, abrupt shifts in recent decades from wet to dry conditions (indexed by a seasonal Palmer Drought Severity Index) coincided with dramatically reduced radial growth. Each shift was presumably associated with branch dieback that produced a legacy effect apparent in many SGI series: uncharacteristically low SGI in the year following the shift. My results suggest trees in locations distant from the active channel rely on the regional shallow unconfined aquifer, summer rainfall, or both to meet water demands. The landscape-level differences in the water supplies sustaining these trees imply variable effects from shifts in winter-versus monsoon-related precipitation, and from climate change versus streamflow or groundwater management.

California↗

Unprecedented burning in tropical peatlands during the 20th century compared to the previous two millennia

Tropical peatland wildfire incidence has risen in recent decades, driven by drainage for land use and intensified by severe droughts with global climate change. These disturbances have altered vegetation structure, disrupted ecosystem functioning, and increased carbon emissions, particularly in Southeast Asia. However, the long-term history and characteristics of wildfires in tropical peatlands remain largely unknown. Here, we compiled fifty-eight macro-charcoal records from peatlands across the tropics, ranging from lowland forested to montane peatlands, to assess millennia-scale changes and controlling factors of tropical peatland burning. We divided the datasets into four main sub-regions: Neotropical, Afrotropical, Indomalayan and Australasian ecoregions to explore regional variability. Tropical peatlands had high burning levels between 0 and 850 ce , followed by a relatively low and stable period until a marked increase during the 20th century. The general trend in tropical peatland burning follows changes in global temperature, and climate variables that control the length and severity of drought events have a notable influence on peat burning before 1900 ce . During the 20th century, regional differences were observed, with declining fire trends in the Neotropical and Afrotropical regions and increasing fire trends in the Indomalayan and Australasian regions. This difference is likely attributable to human activities, and such intervention is also evident in palm swamps and hardwood swamps under similar wet, weakly seasonal climates. With the increase in anthropogenic pressures on peatlands and greater climate variability, future wildfires in peatlands are likely to become more frequent and widespread across all tropical ecoregions. Conservation and sustainable land-use practices could be used to mitigate and control peatland burning and protect these carbon-rich sinks.

Global Change Biology↗

Precision of four calcified structures for age estimation of Black Carp

Objective Black Carp Mylopharyngodon piceus is an emerging invasive species in North America with an expanding population in the Mississippi River basin. Current aging methods use a suite of structures for age estimation, and a single structure is needed to minimize processing time, to maximize consistency of age and growth measurements, and to allow for back-calculation of individual fish length at age. Methods In total, 236 Black Carp were collected throughout the year from 2017 to 2019 through incidental captures by commercial fishers and biologists. In a subsample, 119 Black Carp from 429 to 1268 mm total length were compared for the precision of annuli counts by two experienced readers for the two anterior pectoral fin rays, the anterior dorsal fin ray, sectioned vertebrae, and lapilli otoliths based on percent exact agreement (PA), percent agreement within 1 year (PA ± 1), coefficient of variation (CV), and bubble plots. Consensus annuli counts were compared by PA and CV between structures. We applied annuli counts, as opposed to age, as fish were collected during all seasons and structures were examined independently by readers without knowledge of capture date. Result Vertebrae and dorsal rays had the highest PA between readers. Dorsal ray had the lowest CV and higher PA ± 1. Pectoral rays and lapilli otoliths had the lowest PA. Between-structure consensus annuli counts indicated that pectoral rays and the dorsal ray annuli counts were the most similar (PA >70% and CV <12) and lapilli otoliths were the most dissimilar (PA >35% and CV >24). Reader-reported confidence was highest for vertebrae, then in decreasing order, dorsal ray, pectoral rays, and lapilli otoliths. Lumens were present in all fin rays with only minor effects observed on annuli counts, aside from the anterior-most pectoral fin ray, in which lumens obscured the presence of one or more potential annuli in 61% of structures. Conclusion The dorsal ray had the highest agreement between readers, with agreement with ±1 year at 98%; the structure can be efficiently extracted and processed, and the structure's morphology and growth pattern are conducive to aging older fish. Vertebrae had high agreement between readers, but a systematic pattern of double bands in vertebrae increased the between-reader variation in older fish as the interannual growth pattern compressed the viewable area; this was identified by readers based on aging criteria and highlights the need for training novice readers. Validation of annual growth in the tested suite of structures is still needed.

Mississippi River↗

Complex demographic responses to contrasting climate drivers lead to divergent population trends across the range of a threatened alpine plant

Alpine plants are likely to be particularly vulnerable to climate change because of their restricted distributions and sensitivity to rapid environmental shifts occurring in high-elevation ecosystems. The well-studied Haleakalā silversword (‘āhinahina, Argyroxiphium sandwicense subsp. macrocephalum ) already exhibits substantial climate-associated population decline, and offers the opportunity to understand the ecological and demographic mechanisms that underlie ongoing and predicted range shifts. We use nearly four decades of demographic monitoring for this threatened Hawaiian species, in combination with other biological, ecological and climate data to explore demographic responses across its entire range. We construct and independently validate population models for two elevation zones representing the species’ lower trailing and higher stable regions. Differences in population growth rate (lambda) between trailing and stable regions were influenced most strongly by lower survival of juvenile and small adult size classes, as well as by lower recruitment and lower survival of seedlings and large adults in the trailing region. Furthermore, seed production appears to have decreased from the 1980’s to present in the trailing region, and is now significantly less than in the stable region. Lambda and several underlying vital rates were significantly associated with wetter dry season conditions in the lower trailing region, indicating water limitation. In the higher elevation stable region, in contrast, lambda and vital rates were associated with warmer air temperatures, indicating cold limitation. These contrasting demographic patterns and climate dependencies lead to a high probability of extinction over the next century in the lower region, where most plants occur, but zero probability of the same in the higher region, according to stochastic population projections. Drier future scenarios further increase the probability of extinction at low elevations. The combined results illustrate the complexity in the demographic response and future viability that can occur across the range of a single species.

Global Ecology and Conservation↗

Carbon balance of the terrestrial biosphere in the twentieth century: analyses of CO 2 , climate and land use effects with four process-based ecosystem models

The concurrent effects of increasing atmospheric CO 2 concentration, climate variability, and cropland establishment and abandonment on terrestrial carbon storage between 1920 and 1992 were assessed using a standard simulation protocol with four process-based terrestrial biosphere models. Over the long-term(1920–1992), the simulations yielded a time history of terrestrial uptake that is consistent (within the uncertainty) with a long-term analysis based on ice core and atmospheric CO 2 data. Up to 1958, three of four analyses indicated a net release of carbon from terrestrial ecosystems to the atmosphere caused by cropland establishment. After 1958, all analyses indicate a net uptake of carbon by terrestrial ecosystems, primarily because of the physiological effects of rapidly rising atmospheric CO 2 . During the 1980s the simulations indicate that terrestrial ecosystems stored between 0.3 and 1.5 Pg C yr−1, which is within the uncertainty of analysis based on CO 2 and O 2 budgets. Three of the four models indicated (in accordance with O 2 evidence) that the tropics were approximately neutral while a net sink existed in ecosystems north of the tropics. Although all of the models agree that the long-term effect of climate on carbon storage has been small relative to the effects of increasing atmospheric CO 2 and land use, the models disagree as to whether climate variability and change in the twentieth century has promoted carbon storage or release. Simulated interannual variability from 1958 generally reproduced the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-scale variability in the atmospheric CO 2 increase, but there were substantial differences in the magnitude of interannual variability simulated by the models. The analysis of the ability of the models to simulate the changing amplitude of the seasonal cycle of atmospheric CO 2 suggested that the observed trend may be a consequence of CO 2 effects, climate variability, land use changes, or a combination of these effects. The next steps for improving the process-based simulation of historical terrestrial carbon include (1) the transfer of insight gained from stand-level process studies to improve the sensitivity of simulated carbon storage responses to changes in CO 2 and climate, (2) improvements in the data sets used to drive the models so that they incorporate the timing, extent, and types of major disturbances, (3) the enhancement of the models so that they consider major crop types and management schemes, (4) development of data sets that identify the spatial extent of major crop types and management schemes through time, and (5) the consideration of the effects of anthropogenic nitrogen deposition. The evaluation of the performance of the models in the context of a more complete consideration of the factors influencing historical terrestrial carbon dynamics is important for reducing uncertainties in representing the role of terrestrial ecosystems in future projections of the Earth system.

Global Biogeochemical Cycles↗