Geology Reports⌕ Search

SEARCH · Geology Reports

Results for “Ocean Modelling”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 91 records · Page 5Linked to original sources
USGS2020

Modeling soil porewater salinity response to drought in tidal freshwater forested wetlands

There is a growing concern about the adverse effects of saltwater intrusion via tidal rivers, streams and creeks into tidal freshwater forested wetlands (TFFW) due to sea‐level rise (SLR) and intense and extended drought events. However, the magnitude and duration of porewater salinity in exceedance of plant salinity stress threshold (2 practical salinity units, psu) and the controlling factors remain unclear. In this study, we developed a TFFW soil porewater salinity model, in which the feedback mechanisms between soil salinity and evapotranspiration and hydraulic conductivity were incorporated. We selected sites (upper, middle, lower tidal freshwater forest sites and oligohaline marsh site) along the coastal floodplains of two rivers, the Waccamaw River (SC, USA) and the Savannah River (GA and SC, USA), that represent landscape salinity gradients from tidal influence of the Atlantic Ocean. The model results agreed well with field measurements and revealed that with drought‐induced saltwater intrusion, the mean annual soil porewater salinity and duration of elevated soil porewater salinity (> 2 psu) increased significantly compared to the normal (non‐drought) condition, posing a threat to the health and ecosystem services of TFFW even in the absence of SLR. Model results also showed more severe salinity stress under drought for the lower forest sites along the two rivers, where soil salinity values have already been at or in exceedance of the 2 psu threshold.

Georgia, South Carolina↗
USGS1999

Stasis and extinction of Silurian (Llandovery-Wenlock) trilobite associations related to oceanic cyclicity

Silurian trilobites of the central United States belong to a series of temporally-successive associations which appeared abruptly, maintained taxonomic stasis for a time, and then disappeared abruptly. Their disappearance resulted from global perturbations of short-term duration and moderate magnitude, which caused substantial taxonomic replacement but no reorganization of major ecosystems. The most significant extinction and replacement in Silurian trilobite associations in the study area occurs near the Llandovery-Wenlock boundary. This turnover in trilobite associations appears to correspond to Jeppsson's Ireviken Event in his model of oceanic and climatic cyclicity. Major sea-level changes earlier in the Llandovery did not have a similar impact on trilobite associations.

Journal of Paleontology↗
USGS2021

An efficient method to calculate depth-integrated, phase-averaged momentum balances in non-hydrostatic models

Analysis of the mean (wave-averaged) momentum balance is a common approach used to explain the physical forcing driving wave set-up and mean currents in the nearshore zone. Traditionally this approach has been applied to phase-averaged models but has more recently been applied to phase-resolving models using post-processing, whereby model output is used to calculate each of the momentum terms. While phase-resolving models have the advantage of capturing the nonlinear properties of waves propagating in the nearshore (making them advantageous to enhance understanding of nearshore processes), the post-processing calculation of the momentum terms does not guarantee that the momentum balance closes. We show that this is largely due to the difficulty (or impossibility) of being consistent with the numerical approach. If the residual is of a similar magnitude as any of the relevant momentum terms (which is common with post-processing methods as we show), the analysis is largely compromised. Here we present a new method to internally calculate and extract the depth-integrated, mean momentum terms in the phase-resolving non-hydrostatic wave-flow model SWASH in a manner that is consistent with the numerical implementation. Further, we demonstrate the utility of the new method with two existing physical model studies. By being consistent with the numerical framework, the internal method calculates the momentum terms with a much lower residual at computer precision, combined with greatly reduced calculation time and output storage requirements compared to post-processing techniques. The method developed here allows the accurate evaluation of the depth-integrated, mean momentum terms of wave-driven flows while taking advantage of the more complete representation of the wave dynamics offered by phase-resolving models. Furthermore, it provides an opportunity for advances in the understanding of nearshore processes particularly at more complex sites where wave nonlinearity and energy transfers are important.

Ocean Modelling↗
USGS2016

Dynamic reusable workflows for ocean science

Digital catalogs of ocean data have been available for decades, but advances in standardized services and software for catalog search and data access make it now possible to create catalog-driven workflows that automate — end-to-end — data search, analysis and visualization of data from multiple distributed sources. Further, these workflows may be shared, reused and adapted with ease. Here we describe a workflow developed within the US Integrated Ocean Observing System (IOOS) which automates the skill-assessment of water temperature forecasts from multiple ocean forecast models, allowing improved forecast products to be delivered for an open water swim event. A series of Jupyter Notebooks are used to capture and document the end-to-end workflow using a collection of Python tools that facilitate working with standardized catalog and data services. The workflow first searches a catalog of metadata using the Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) Catalog Service for the Web (CSW), then accesses data service endpoints found in the metadata records using the OGC Sensor Observation Service (SOS) for in situ sensor data and OPeNDAP services for remotely-sensed and model data. Skill metrics are computed and time series comparisons of forecast model and observed data are displayed interactively, leveraging the capabilities of modern web browsers. The resulting workflow not only solves a challenging specific problem, but highlights the benefits of dynamic, reusable workflows in general. These workflows adapt as new data enters the data system, facilitate reproducible science, provide templates from which new scientific workflows can be developed, and encourage data providers to use standardized services. As applied to the ocean swim event, the workflow exposed problems with two of the ocean forecast products which led to improved regional forecasts once errors were corrected. While the example is specific, the approach is general, and we hope to see increased use of dynamic notebooks across the geoscience domains.

Journal of Marine Science and Engineering↗
USGS1983

Crustal structure of southwestern Saudi Arabia

The southwestern Arabian Shield is composed of uplifted Proterozoic metamorphic and plutonic rocks. The Shield is bordered on the southwest by Cenozoic sedimentary and igneous rocks of the Red Sea paar and on the east by the Arabian Platform, an area of basin sedimentation throughout Phanerozoic time. The Shield appears to have been formed by successive episodes of island arc volcanism and sea-floor spreading, followed by several cycles of compressive tectonism and metamorphism. An interpretation and synthesis of a deep-refraction seismic profile from the Riyadh area to the Farasan Islands, and regional gravity, aeromagnetic, heat flow, and surface geologic data have yielded a self-consistent regional-scale model of the crust and upper mantle for this area. The model consists of two 20 km-thick layers of crust with an average compressional wave velocity in the upper crust of about 6.3 km/s and an average velocity in the lower. crust of about 7.0 km/s. This crust thins abruptly to less than 20 km near the southwestern end of the profile where Precambrian outcrops abut the Cenozoic rocks and to 8 km beneath the Farasan Islands. The data over the coastal plain and Red Sea shelf areas are fit satisfactorily by an oceanic crustal model. A major lateral velocity inhomogeneity in the crust is inferred about 25 km northeast of Sabhah and is supported by surface geologic evidence. The major velocity discontinuities occur at about the same depth across the entire Shield and are interpreted to indicate horizontal metamorphic stratification of the Precambrian crust. Several lateral inhomogenities in both the upper and lower .crust of the . Shield are interpreted, to indicate bulk compositional variations. The subcrustal portion of the model is composed of a hot, low-density lithosphere beneath the Red Sea which is systematically cooler and denser to the northeast. This model provides a mechanism which explains the observed topographic uplift, regional gravity pattern, heat flow, and mantle compressional wave velocities. Such a lithosphere could be produced by upwelling of hot asthenosphere beneath the Red Sea which then flows laterally beneath the lithosphere of the Arabian Plate.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2004

DEM generation and tidal deformation detection for Sulzberger Ice Shelf, West Antarctica using SAR interferometry

In this study we generated a relative Digital Elevation Model (DEM) over the Sulzberger Ice Shelf, West Antarctica using ERS1/2 synthetic aperture radar (SAR) interferometry data. Four repeat pass differential interferograms are used to find the grounding zone and to classify the study area. An interferometrically derived DEM is compared with laser altimetry profile from ICESat. Standard deviation of the relative height difference is 5.12 m and 1.34 m in total length of the profile and at the center of the profile respectively. The magnitude and the direction of tidal changes estimated from interferogram are compared with those predicted tidal differences from four ocean tide models. Tidal deformation measured in InSAR is -16.7 cm and it agrees well within 3 cm with predicted ones from tide models.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2023

Efficient modeling of wave generation and propagation in a semi-enclosed estuary

Accurate, and high-resolution wave statistics are critical for regional hazard mapping and planning. However, long-term simulations at high spatial resolution are often computationally prohibitive. Here, multiple rapid frameworks including fetch-limited, look-up-table (LUT), and linear propagation are combined and tested in a large estuary exposed to both remotely (swell) and locally generated waves. Predictions are compared with observations and a traditional SWAN implementation coupled to a regional hydrodynamic model. Fetch-limited and LUT approaches both perform well where local winds dominate with errors about 10%–20% larger than traditional SWAN predictions. Combinations of these rapid approaches with linear propagation methods where remotely generated energy is present also perform well with errors 0%–20% larger than traditional SWAN predictions. Model–model comparisons exhibit lower variance than comparisons to observations suggesting that, while model implementation impacts prediction skill, model boundary conditions (winds, offshore waves) may be a dominant source of error. Overall results suggest that with a relatively small loss in prediction accuracy, simulations computation cost can be significantly reduced (by 2–4 orders of magnitude) allowing for high resolution and long-term predictions to adequately define regional wave statistics.

British Columbia, Washington↗
USGS2022

Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics simulations of reef surf zone processes driven by plunging irregular waves

As waves interact with the slopes of coral reefs and other steep bathymetry profiles, plunging breaking usually occurs where the free surface overturns and violent water motion is triggered. Resolving these surf zone processes pose significant challenges for conventional mesh-based hydrodynamic models, due to the rapidly-deforming nature of the free surface and associated flows. Yet the accurate prediction of these surf zone hydrodynamics is critical for predicting a wide range of nearshore processes driven by wave breaking (e.g., wave dissipation and energy transfers; mean water levels and currents; and wave runup). In this study we assess the ability of the mesh-free, Lagrangian particle-based numerical modelling approach Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics (SPH) based on DualSPHysics, to simulate the fine-scale hydrodynamic processes driven by irregular wave transformation over a fringing reef profile, by comparing results against detailed experimental observations from a physical modelling study. To greatly improve the computational efficiency, the SPH model was coupled to the mesh-based multi-layer nonhydrostatic wave-flow model SWASH. With this coupled approach, SWASH was used to efficiently simulate the evolution of non-breaking waves from the wavemaker up to the fore reef slope, with the SPH model then used to simulate the detailed hydrodynamic processes over the reef from just offshore of the breakpoint to the shoreline . The SPH model was able to accurately reproduce the complex free surface deformations during plunging breaking, the spectral evolution of waves across the reef flat (including nonlinear wave shape), the mean water levels and currents, and wave runup at the shoreline. Using the long duration simulations (>400 wave periods), the model was able to reproduce the full range of wave motions over the reef (from sea-swell to infragravity frequencies), including the increasing dominance of low frequency waves towards the shoreline and the large cross-reef standing wave motions excited by the reef geometry.

Ocean Modelling↗
USGS1990

Continental extension, magmatism and elevation; formal relations and rules of thumb

To investigate simplified relations between elevation and the extensional, magmatic and thermal processes that influence lithosphere buoyancy, we assume that the lithosphere floats on an asthenosphere of uniform density and has no flexural strength. A simple graph relating elevation to lithosphere density and thickness provides an overview of expectable conditions around the earth and a simple test for consistency of continental and oceanic lithosphere models. The mass-balance relations yield simple general rules for estimating elevation changes caused by various tectonic, magmatic and thermal processes without referring to detailed models. The rules are general because they depend principally on buoyancy, which under our assumptions is specified by elevation, a known quantity; they do not generally require a knowledge of lithosphere thickness and density. The elevation of an extended terrain contains important information on its tectonic and magmatic history. In the Great Basin where Cenozoic extension is estimated to be 100%, the present high mean elevation ( ~ 1.75 km) probably requires substantial low-density magmatic contributions to the extending lithosphere. The elevation cannot be reasonably explained solely as the buoyant residue of a very high initial terrane, or of a lithosphere that was initially very thick and subsequently delaminated and heated. Even models with a high initial elevation typically call for 10 km or so of accumulated magmatic material of near-crustal density. To understand the evolution of the Great Basin, it is important to determine whether such intruded material is present; some could replenish the stretching crust by underplating and crustal intrusion and some might reside in the upper mantle. The elevation maintained or approached by an intruded extending lithosphere depends on the ratio B of how fast magma is supplied from the asthenosphere ( b km/Ma) to how fast the lithosphere spreads the magma out by extension (γ Ma −1 ). For a surface maintained 212km below sea level (e.g., an ocean ridge) B is about 5 km; for continental extension the ratio may be much greater. The frequent association of volcanism with continental extension, the high elevation (and buoyancy) of some appreciably extended terrains, and the oceanic spreading analog all suggest that magmatism may play an important role in continental extension. Better estimates of total extension and elevation change in extended regions can help to identify that role.

Tectonophysics↗
USGS2021

Modeling at-sea density of marine birds to support renewable energy planning on the Pacific outer continental shelf of the contiguous United States

This report describes the at-sea spatial distributions of marine birds in Pacific OCS waters off the contiguous U.S. (Figure 1.1) to inform marine spatial planning in the region. The goal was to estimate long-term average spatial distributions for marine bird species using all available science-quality transect survey data and numerous bathymetric, oceanographic, and atmospheric predictor variables. We developed seasonal habitat-based spatial models of the at-sea distribution for 33 individual species and 13 taxonomic groups of marine birds throughout the study region. A statistical modeling framework was used to estimate numerical relationships between bird sighting data (i.e., standardized counts) and a range of temporal (e.g., Pacific Decadal Oscillation [PDO] index), spatially static (e.g., depth), and spatially dynamic (e.g., sea surface chlorophyll-a concentration) environmental variables. The estimated relationships were then used to predict spatially explicit long-term average density (individuals per km 2 ) throughout the study area for each species/group in each of four seasons. Bird sighting data came from multiple scientific survey programs and consisted of at-sea counts of birds collected between 1980 and 2017 using boat-based and fixed-wing aerial transect survey methods. Spatial environmental variables were derived from remote sensing satellite data and an ocean dynamics model.

California, Oregon, Washington↗
USGS1995

Seasonal-to-interannual fluctuations in surface temperature over the Pacific: effects of monthly winds and heat fluxes

Monthly heat fluxes and wind stresses are used to force the Oberhuber isopycnic ocean general-circulation (OPYC) model of the Pacific basin over a two-decade period from 1970 to 1988. The surface forcings are constructed from COADS marine observations via bulk formulae. Monthly anomalies of the fluxes and stresses are superimposed upon model climatological means of these variables, which were saved from a long spin-up. Two aspects of this work are highlighted, both aimed at a better understanding of the atmosphere-ocean variability and exchanges and at diagnosing the performance of the OPYC model in simulating monthly to decadal-scale variability. The first is the evaluation of the data used to force the model ocean, along with its relationship to other observed data. The second is the diagnosis of the processes revealed in the model that are associated with sea surface temperature (SST) variability, including their seasonal and geographic structure. Although both random and systematic errors arise from the marine data and the bulk formulations, large signals in the air-sea fluxes are nonetheless consistent with the large-scale atmospheric circulation anomalies over the Pacific. This signal is large in a composite prepared from months with similar circulation modes. Also, latent and sensible heat-flux anomaly patterns correspond well to those of SST anomaly tendencies. Considering short-period variations, SST anomaly tendencies have typical magnitudes of 0.3°C mo -1 . These are associated with monthly mean flux anomalies having typical magnitudes of 50 W m -2 and are consistent with observed mixed-layer depths. Decadal anomalies have much smaller magnitudes, perhaps reduced by two orders of magnitude, and it is here that the signal-to-noise problem is more severe. The forcing terms are generally products of variables, so realistic means and fluctuations of these variables are crucial for a successful simulation. The 19-year simulation of the Pacific basin by the monthly marine data-forced OPYC model displays good skill in reproducing SST variability. These results represent the first hindcast of which we are aware that uses both observed total heat-flux and wind-stress anomalies as forcing for such a long time interval. There is close agreement between the model SSTs and those observed in many regions of the Pacific, including the tropics and the northern extratropics. Besides performing credibly on the monthly time scale, the model captures the essence of low-frequency variability over the North Pacific, including aspects of a marked basin-wide change that occurred in 1976-1977. In the model's detailed heat budget, the anomalous air-sea heat fluxes, entrainment, and to a lesser extent horizontal advection, force thermal-anomaly changes in the mixed layer. Each of these components was apparently involved in the 1976-1977 decadal SST shift.

Book chapter↗
USGS2023

HyWaves: Hybrid downscaling of multimodal wave spectra to nearshore areas

Long-term and accurate wave hindcast databases are often required in different coastal engineering projects. The assessment of the nearshore wave climate is often accomplished by using downscaling techniques to translate offshore waves to coastal areas. However, dynamical downscaling approaches may incur huge computational cost. Additionally, the common use of bulk parameterizations are often not accurate for multidimensional waves. To overcome these limitations, we present a hybrid downscaling approach that combines mathematical algorithms (statistical downscaling) and numerical modeling (dynamical downscaling) over the individual spectral partitions. Every wave partition is downscaled and aggregated afterward by using principles of wave linear theory. By assuming linearity in the propagation of the wave celerity, the application of the method is limited from offshore to intermediate water depths. In addition, the method proposed uses a technique to simplify the spectral boundary conditions in complex domains. The methodology has been applied and validated in the island states of Samoa, American Samoa, Majuro, and Kwajalein, showing good skill at reproducing the spectral hourly time series of significant wave height, peak period, and peak direction. Moreover, an accurate representation of the observed energy spectrum was achieved. This study provides insight into the numerical approximation of the combined sea-swell states while improving the quality of fast spectral forecasting and early warning systems.

Ocean Modeling↗
USGS2017

Crustal structure interpreted from magnetic anomalies

In this review, we discuss publications during the last quadrennium (1987–1990) that used aeromagnetic data, marine magnetic data, satellite magnetic data, and rock magnetic and petrologic data to provide information on the sources of magnetic anomalies. Abstracts and papers by non‐U.S. authors are not described. The publications reviewed reflect increased integration of rock magnetic property and petrologic studies with magnetic anomaly interpretation studies, particularly in deep crustal magnetization, exploration for hydrocarbons, and inversion of marine magnetic anomalies. Interpretations of aeromagnetic data featuring image display techniques and using the horizontal gradient method for locating magnetization boundaries became standard. The magnetic anomaly map of North America appeared, the first such map of an entire continent. MAGSAT data contributed to the development of a new model for the magnetization of the oceanic crust. Forward modeling of sources of magnetic anomalies contributed to a wide range of geologic investigations on land, and inverse magnetic modeling techniques became popular for marine geologic investigations.

Reviews of Geophysics↗
USGS1981

Cretaceous Arctic silicoflagellates

Cretaceous silicoflagellate assemblages from Arctic Ocean USGS Core 437 show Vallacerta siderea the most abundant species; most species of Lyramula disappear halfway up the core; only L. burchardae, n. sp., persists into the upper sections. These occurrences are untypical of the few documented Cretaceous assemblages from other areas. A Campanian or Maestrichtian age is suggested by correlation, but the uniquely high abundance of V. siderea and lack of Corbisema suggests that a difference in both age and general environment could be involved. If Core 437 is latest Maestrichtian, then the evidence from this core would constrain the timing of the ocean-freshening model for the Cretaceous-Tertiary boundary extinctions. ?? 1981 A.M. Dowden, Inc.

Geo-Marine Letters↗
USGS2023

A numerical investigation of the mechanisms controlling salt intrusion in the Delaware Bay Estuary

Salinity intrusion in coastal systems is mainly controlled by freshwater inflows. However, extreme events like drought, low-pressure storms, and longer-term sea level rise can exacerbate the landward salt migration and threaten economic infrastructure and ecological health. Along the eastern seaboard of the United States, approximately 13 million people rely on the water resources of the Delaware River basin. Salinity intrusion is actively managed through river discharge targets to suppress the propagation of the salt front (∼0.52 daily averaged psu line). The purpose of this study is to examine the mechanisms controlling the location of the salt front in the Delaware Bay estuary using a calibrated three-dimensional hydrodynamic model, the Coupled Ocean Atmosphere Wave and Sediment Transport modeling system. This study explored how river discharge, tidal motions, interactions with bathymetric and topographic features, and meteorological events affected the location of the salt front. The model was forced with tides, subtidal water levels, bulk atmospheric conditions, and waves. Compared with the observationally derived location of the salt front line, the model captured the major dynamics throughout the year and performed particularly well during times of low discharge, when salinity intruded up estuary at a constant rate of 0.4 km /day . The daily average salt front moved almost 16 km (10 mi) within a neap-spring tidal cycle, and low-pressure storm systems were found to move the daily averaged salt front by 13–16 km in one event.

Delaware, New Jersey, Pennsylvania↗
USGS2010

Holocene coastal dune fields used as indicators of net littoral transport: West Coast, USA

Between Point Grenville, Washington, and Point Conception, California (1500 km distance) 21 dune fields record longshore transport in 20 littoral cells during the late Holocene. The direction of predominant littoral transport is established by relative positions of dune fields (north, central, or south) in 17 representative littoral cells. Dune field position is north of cell midpoints in northernmost Oregon and Washington, but is south of cell midpoints in southern Oregon and California. Downdrift sand trapping occurs at significant changes in shoreline angle and/or at bounding headlands that project at least 2.5 km seaward from the general coastal trend. Sand bypassing occurs around small headlands of less than 0.5 km in projection distance. A northward shift of the winter low-pressure center in the northeast Pacific Ocean is modeled from 11 ka to 0 ka. Nearshore current forcing in southern Oregon and northern California switched from northward in earliest Holocene time to southward in late Holocene time. The late Holocene (5-0 ka) is generally characterized by net northward littoral drift in northernmost Oregon and Washington and by net southward littoral drift in southernmost Oregon and California. A regional divergence of net transport direction in central Oregon, i.e. no net drift, is consistent with modeled wind and wave forcing at the present time (0 ka). ?? 2009 Elsevier B.V.

Geomorphology↗
USGS2022

Characterizing storm-induced coastal change hazards along the United States West Coast

Traditional methods to assess the probability of storm-induced erosion and flooding from extreme water levels have limited use along the U.S. West Coast where swell dominates erosion and storm surge is limited. This effort presents methodology to assess the probability of erosion and flooding for the U.S. West Coast from extreme total water levels (TWLs), but the approach is applicable to coastal settings worldwide. TWLs were derived from 61 years of wave and water level data at shore-perpendicular transects every 100-m along open coast shorelines. At each location, wave data from the Global Ocean Waves model were downscaled to the nearshore and used to empirically calculate wave run-up. Tides were simulated using the Oregon State University’s tidal data inversion model and non-tidal residuals were calculated from sea-surface temperature and pressure anomalies. Wave run-up was combined with still water levels to generate hourly TWL estimates and extreme TWLs for multiple return periods. Extremes were compared to onshore morphology to determine erosion hazards and define the probability of collision, overwash, and inundation.

California, Oregon, Washington↗
USGS2011

Are there pre-Quaternary geological analogues for a future greenhouse warming?

Given the inherent uncertainties in predicting how climate and environments will respond to anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases, it would be beneficial to society if science could identify geological analogues to the human race’s current grand climate experiment . This has been a focus of the geological and palaeoclimate communities over the last 30 years, with many scientific papers claiming that intervals in Earth history can be used as an analogue for future climate change. Using a coupled ocean–atmosphere modelling approach, we test this assertion for the most probable pre-Quaternary candidates of the last 100 million years: the Mid- and Late Cretaceous, the Palaeocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), the Early Eocene, as well as warm intervals within the Miocene and Pliocene epochs. These intervals fail as true direct analogues since they either represent equilibrium climate states to a long-term CO 2 forcing—whereas anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases provide a progressive (transient) forcing on climate—or the sensitivity of the climate system itself to CO 2 was different. While no close geological analogue exists, past warm intervals in Earth history provide a unique opportunity to investigate processes that operated during warm (high CO 2 ) climate states. Palaeoclimate and environmental reconstruction/modelling are facilitating the assessment and calculation of the response of global temperatures to increasing CO 2 concentrations in the longer term (multiple centuries); this is now referred to as the Earth System Sensitivity, which is critical in identifying CO 2 thresholds in the atmosphere that must not be crossed to avoid dangerous levels of climate change in the long term. Palaeoclimatology also provides a unique and independent way to evaluate the qualities of climate and Earth system models used to predict future climate.

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A:↗