Impacts of the ocean-atmosphere coupling into the very short range prediction system during the impact of Hurricane Matthew on Cuba

Abstract

The main goal of this investigation is analyzing the impact of insert the ocean-atmosphere coupling into the very short range prediction system of Cuba. The ocean-atmosphere coupled components of the Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport Modeling System are used for this purpose and the hurricane Matthew is selected as study case. Two experiments are performed: first, using a dynamic sea surface temperature, updated daily in the atmospheric model WRF; and second using adynamic coupling between the atmospheric and an oceanic models. For the simulated track, the best results are obtained with the coupled system. The impact of coupling on the maximum wind velocities and minimum central pressure is studied. In the coupled system the sea surface temperature has more influence in the surface latent heat fluxes. Also, with this methodology the dry footprint and the behavior of the precipitation field in the presence of a hurricane are studied. This analysis shows that the hurricane acts like an open and self-sustained system in the numerical experiments. The highest differences in the precipitation simulations are in the significant convective area inside the hurricane.