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Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

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At least 91 records · Page 5Linked to original sources
USGS2021

Continental-scale analysis of shallow and deep groundwater contributions to streams

Groundwater discharge generates streamflow and influences stream thermal regimes. However, the water quality and thermal buffering capacity of groundwater depends on the aquifer source-depth. Here, we pair multi-year air and stream temperature signals to categorize 1729 sites across the continental United States as having major dam influence, shallow or deep groundwater signatures, or lack of pronounced groundwater (atmospheric) signatures. Approximately 40% of non-dam stream sites have substantial groundwater contributions as indicated by characteristic paired air and stream temperature signal metrics. Streams with shallow groundwater signatures account for half of all groundwater signature sites and show reduced baseflow and a higher proportion of warming trends compared to sites with deep groundwater signatures. These findings align with theory that shallow groundwater is more vulnerable to temperature increase and depletion. Streams with atmospheric signatures tend to drain watersheds with low slope and greater human disturbance, indicating reduced stream-groundwater connectivity in populated valley settings.

Nature Communications↗
USGS2021

Substantial hysteresis in emergent temperature sensitivity of global wetland CH4 emissions

Wetland methane (CH 4 ) emissions ( FCH 4 ) are important in global carbon budgets and climate change assessments. Currently, FCH 4 projections rely on prescribed static temperature sensitivity that varies among biogeochemical models. Meta-analyses have proposed a consistent FCH 4 temperature dependence across spatial scales for use in models; however, site-level studies demonstrate that FCH 4 are often controlled by factors beyond temperature. Here, we evaluate the relationship between FCH 4 and temperature using observations from the FLUXNET-CH 4 database. Measurements collected across the globe show substantial seasonal hysteresis between FCH 4 and temperature, suggesting larger FCH 4 sensitivity to temperature later in the frost-free season (about 77% of site-years). Results derived from a machine-learning model and several regression models highlight the importance of representing the large spatial and temporal variability within site-years and ecosystem types. Mechanistic advancements in biogeochemical model parameterization and detailed measurements in factors modulating CH 4 production are thus needed to improve global CH 4 budget assessments.

Nature Communications↗
USGS2021

Experimental warming differentially affects vegetative and reproductive phenology of tundra plants

Rapid climate warming is altering Arctic and alpine tundra ecosystem structure and function, including shifts in plant phenology. While the advancement of green up and flowering are well-documented, it remains unclear whether all phenophases, particularly those later in the season, will shift in unison or respond divergently to warming. Here, we present the largest synthesis to our knowledge of experimental warming effects on tundra plant phenology from the International Tundra Experiment. We examine the effect of warming on a suite of season-wide plant phenophases. Results challenge the expectation that all phenophases will advance in unison to warming. Instead, we find that experimental warming caused: (1) larger phenological shifts in reproductive versus vegetative phenophases and (2) advanced reproductive phenophases and green up but delayed leaf senescence which translated to a lengthening of the growing season by approximately 3%. Patterns were consistent across sites, plant species and over time. The advancement of reproductive seasons and lengthening of growing seasons may have significant consequences for trophic interactions and ecosystem function across the tundra.

Nature Communications↗
USGS2021

Timing of iceberg scours and massive ice-rafting events in the subtropical North Atlantic

High resolution seafloor mapping shows extraordinary evidence that massive (>300 m thick) icebergs once drifted >5,000 km south along the eastern United States, with >700 iceberg scours now identified south of Cape Hatteras. Here we report on sediment cores collected from several buried scours that show multiple plow marks align with Heinrich Event 3 (H3), ~31,000 years ago. Numerical glacial iceberg simulations indicate that the transport of icebergs to these sites occurs during massive, but short-lived, periods of elevated meltwater discharge. Transport of icebergs to the subtropics, away from deep water formation sites, may explain why H3 was associated with only a modest increase in ice-rafting across the subpolar North Atlantic, and implies a complex relationship between freshwater forcing and climate change. Stratigraphy from subbottom data across the scour marks shows there are additional features that are both older and younger, and may align with other periods of elevated meltwater discharge.

Florida, Georgia, South Carolina↗
USGS2021

Nonlinear shifts in infectious rust disease due to climate change

Range shifts of infectious plant disease are expected under climate change. As plant diseases move, emergent abiotic-biotic interactions are predicted to modify their distributions, leading to unexpected changes in disease risk. Evidence of these complex range shifts due to climate change, however, remains largely speculative. Here, we combine a long-term study of the infectious tree disease, white pine blister rust, with a six-year field assessment of drought-disease interactions in the southern Sierra Nevada. We find that climate change between 1996 and 2016 moved the climate optimum of the disease into higher elevations. The nonlinear climate change-disease relationship contributed to an estimated 5.5 (4.4–6.6) percentage points (p.p.) decline in disease prevalence in arid regions and an estimated 6.8 (5.8–7.9) p.p. increase in colder regions. Though climate change likely expanded the suitable area for blister rust by 777.9 (1.0–1392.9) km 2 into previously inhospitable regions, the combination of host-pathogen and drought-disease interactions contributed to a substantial decrease (32.79%) in mean disease prevalence between surveys. Specifically, declining alternate host abundance suppressed infection probabilities at high elevations, even as climatic conditions became more suitable. Further, drought-disease interactions varied in strength and direction across an aridity gradient—likely decreasing infection risk at low elevations while simultaneously increasing infection risk at high elevations. These results highlight the critical role of aridity in modifying host-pathogen-drought interactions. Variation in aridity across topographic gradients can strongly mediate plant disease range shifts in response to climate change.

California↗
USGS2021

Ontogenetic shifts from social to experiential learning drive avian migration timing

Migrating animals may benefit from social or experiential learning, yet whether and how these learning processes interact or change over time to produce observed migration patterns remains unexplored. Using 16 years of satellite-tracking data from 105 reintroduced whooping cranes, we reveal an interplay between social and experiential learning in migration timing. Both processes dramatically improved individuals’ abilities to dynamically adjust their timing to track environmental conditions along the migration path. However, results revealed an ontogenetic shift in the dominant learning process, whereby subadult birds relied on social information, while mature birds primarily relied on experiential information. These results indicate that the adjustment of migration phenology in response to the environment is a learned skill that depends on both social context and individual age. Assessing how animals successfully learn to time migrations as environmental conditions change is critical for understanding intraspecific differences in migration patterns and for anticipating responses to global change.

Nature Communications↗
USGS2022

Past terrestrial hydroclimate sensitivity controlled by Earth system feedbacks

Despite tectonic conditions and atmospheric CO 2 levels ( pCO 2 ) similar to those of present-day, geological reconstructions from the mid-Pliocene (3.3-3.0 Ma) document high lake levels in the Sahel and mesic conditions in subtropical Eurasia, suggesting drastic reorganizations of subtropical terrestrial hydroclimate during this interval. Here, using a compilation of proxy data and multi-model paleoclimate simulations, we show that the mid-Pliocene hydroclimate state is not driven by direct CO 2 radiative forcing but by a loss of northern high-latitude ice sheets and continental greening. These ice sheet and vegetation changes are long-term Earth system feedbacks to elevated pCO 2 . Further, the moist conditions in the Sahel and subtropical Eurasia during the mid-Pliocene are a product of enhanced tropospheric humidity and a stationary wave response to the surface warming pattern, which varies strongly with land cover changes. These findings highlight the potential for amplified terrestrial hydroclimate responses over long timescales to a sustained CO 2 forcing.

Nature Communications↗
USGS2022

Extreme rainstorms drive exceptional organic carbon export from forested humid-tropical rivers in Puerto Rico

Extreme rainfall events in the humid-tropical Luquillo Mountains, Puerto Rico export the bulk of suspended sediment and particulate organic carbon. Using 25 years of river carbon and suspended sediment data, which targeted hurricanes and other large rainstorms, we estimated biogenic particulate organic carbon yields of 65 ± 16 tC km −2 yr −1 for the Icacos and 17.7 ± 5.1 tC km −2 yr −1 for the Mameyes rivers. These granitic and volcaniclastic catchments function as substantial atmospheric carbon-dioxide sinks, largely through export of river biogenic particulate organic carbon during extreme rainstorms. Compared to other regions, these high biogenic particulate organic carbon yields are accompanied by lower suspended sediment yields. Accordingly, particulate organic carbon export from these catchments is underpredicted by previous yield relationships, which are derived mainly from catchments with easily erodible sedimentary rocks. Therefore, rivers that drain petrogenic-carbon-poor bedrock require separate accounting to estimate their contributions to the geological carbon cycle.

Puerto Rico↗
USGS2022

Limits to reproduction and seed size-number trade-offs that shape forest dominance and future recovery

The relationships that control seed production in trees are fundamental to understanding the evolution of forest species and their capacity to recover from increasing losses to drought, fire, and harvest. A synthesis of fecundity data from 714 species worldwide allowed us to examine hypotheses that are central to quantifying reproduction, a foundation for assessing fitness in forest trees. Four major findings emerged. First, seed production is not constrained by a strict trade-off between seed size and numbers. Instead, seed numbers vary over ten orders of magnitude, with species that invest in large seeds producing more seeds than expected from the 1:1 trade-off. Second, gymnosperms have lower seed production than angiosperms, potentially due to their extra investments in protective woody cones. Third, nutrient-demanding species, indicated by high foliar phosphorus concentrations, have low seed production. Finally, sensitivity of individual species to soil fertility varies widely, limiting the response of community seed production to fertility gradients. In combination, these findings can inform models of forest response that need to incorporate reproductive potential.

Nature Communications↗
USGS2022

Trans-crustal structural control of CO2-rich extensional magmatic systems revealed at Mount Erebus Antarctica

Erebus volcano, Antarctica, with its persistent phonolite lava lake, is a classic example of an evolved, CO 2 -rich rift volcano. Seismic studies provide limited images of the magmatic system. Here we show using magnetotelluric data that a steep, melt-related conduit of low electrical resistivity originating in the upper mantle undergoes pronounced lateral re-orientation in the deep crust before reaching shallower magmatic storage and the summit lava lake. The lateral turn represents a structural fault-valve controlling episodic flow of magma and CO 2 vapour, which replenish and heat the high level phonolite differentiation zone. This magmatic valve lies within an inferred, east-west structural trend forming part of an accommodation zone across the southern termination of the Terror Rift, providing a dilatant magma pathway. Unlike H 2 O-rich subduction arc volcanoes, CO 2 -dominated Erebus geophysically shows continuous magmatic structure to shallow crustal depths of < 1 km, as the melt does not experience decompression-related volatile supersaturation and viscous stalling.

Nature Communications↗
USGS2022

Statistical consideration of nonrandom treatment applications reveal region-wide benefits of widespread post-fire restoration action

Accurate predictions of ecological restoration outcomes are needed across the increasingly large landscapes requiring treatment following disturbances. However, observational studies often fail to account for nonrandom treatment application, which can result in invalid inference. Examining a spatiotemporally extensive management treatment-- post-fire seeding of declining sagebrush shrubs across the semiarid U.S. over two decades -- we quantify drivers and consequences of selection biases in restoration, using remotely sensed data. Treatments were disproportionately applied in more stressful, degraded ecological conditions. Failure to incorporate nonrandom treatment allocation led to the conclusion that costly, widespread seedings were unsuccessful; however, after considering biases, restoration positively affected sagebrush recovery. Treatment effect sizes varied with climate, indicating possible prioritization criteria for interventions. Our findings revise the perspective that widespread post-fire sagebrush seedings have been broadly “unsuccessful” and demonstrate how selection biases can pose substantive inferential hazards in observational studies of restoration efficacy and development of restoration theory.

California, Colorado, Idaho, Nevada, Oregon, Utah,↗
USGS2022

21st-century stagnation in unvegetated sand-sea activity

Sand seas are vast expanses of Earth’s surface containing large areas of aeolian dunes—topographic patterns manifest from above-threshold winds and a supply of loose sand. Predictions of the role of future climate change for sand-sea activity are sparse and contradictory. Here we examine the impact of climate on all of Earth’s presently-unvegetated sand seas, using ensemble runs of an Earth System Model for historical and future Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios. We find that almost all of the sand seas decrease in activity relative to present-day and industrial-onset for all future SSP scenarios, largely due to more intermittent sand-transport events. An increase in event wait-times and decrease in sand transport is conducive to vegetation growth. We expect dune-forming winds will become more unimodal, and produce larger incipient wavelengths, due to weaker and more seasonal winds. Our results indicate that these qualitative changes in Earth’s deserts cannot be mitigated.

Nature Communications↗
USGS2022

Expression plasticity regulates intraspecific variation in the acclimatization potential of a reef-building coral

Phenotypic plasticity is an important ecological and evolutionary response for organisms experiencing environmental change, but the ubiquity of this capacity within coral species and across symbiont communities is unknown. We exposed ten genotypes of the reef-building coral Montipora capitata with divergent symbiont communities to four thermal pre-exposure profiles and quantified gene expression before stress testing 4 months later. Here we show two pre-exposure profiles significantly enhance thermal tolerance despite broadly different expression patterns and substantial variation in acclimatization potential based on coral genotype. There was no relationship between a genotype’s basal thermal sensitivity and ability to acquire heat tolerance, including in corals harboring naturally tolerant symbionts, which illustrates the potential for additive improvements in coral response to climate change. These results represent durable improvements from short-term stress hardening of reef-building corals and substantial cryptic complexity in the capacity for plasticity.

Nature Communications↗
USGS2022

Towards critical white ice conditions in lakes under global warming

The quality of lake ice is of uppermost importance for ice safety and under-ice ecology, but its temporal and spatial variability is largely unknown. Here we conducted a coordinated lake ice quality sampling campaign across the Northern Hemisphere during one of the warmest winters since 1880 and show that lake ice during 2020/2021 commonly consisted of unstable white ice, at times contributing up to 100% to the total ice thickness. We observed that white ice increased over the winter season, becoming thickest and constituting the largest proportion of the ice layer towards the end of the ice cover season when fatal winter drownings occur most often and light limits the growth and reproduction of primary producers. We attribute the dominance of white ice before ice-off to air temperatures varying around the freezing point, a condition which occurs more frequently during warmer winters. Thus, under continued global warming, the prevalence of white ice is likely to substantially increase during the critical period before ice-off, for which we adjusted commonly used equations for human ice safety and light transmittance through ice.

Nature Communications↗
USGS2022

Recent climate change has driven divergent hydrological shifts in high-latitude peatlands

High-latitude peatlands are changing rapidly in response to climate change, including permafrost thaw. Here, we reconstruct hydrological conditions since the seventeenth century using testate amoeba data from 103 high-latitude peat archives. We show that 54% of the peatlands have been drying and 32% have been wetting over this period, illustrating the complex ecohydrological dynamics of high latitude peatlands and their highly uncertain responses to a warming climate.

Nature Communications↗
USGS2022

Astrochronology of the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum on the Atlantic Coastal Plain

The chronology of the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM, ~56 Ma) remains disputed, hampering complete understanding of the possible trigger mechanisms of this event. Here we present an astrochronology for the PETM carbon isotope excursion from Howards Tract, Maryland a paleoshelf environment, on the mid-Atlantic Coastal Plain. Statistical evaluation of variations in calcium content and magnetic susceptibility indicates astronomical forcing was involved and the PETM onset lasted about 6 kyr. The astrochronology and Earth system modeling suggest that the PETM onset occurred at an extreme in precession during a maximum in eccentricity, thus favoring high temperatures, indicating that astronomical forcing could have played a role in triggering the event. Ca content data on the paleo-shelf, along with other marine records, support the notion that a carbonate saturation overshoot followed global ocean acidification during the PETM.

Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, Virginia↗
USGS2022

Inversions of landslide strength as a proxy for subsurface weathering

Distributions of landslide size are hypothesized to reflect hillslope strength, and consequently weathering patterns. However, the association of weathering and critical zone architecture with mechanical strength properties of parent rock and soil are poorly-constrained. Here we use three-dimensional stability to analyze 7330 landslides in western Oregon to infer combinations of strength - friction angles and cohesion - through analysis of both failed and reconstructed landslide terrain. Under a range of conditions, our results demonstrate that the failure envelope that relates shear strength and normal stress in landslide terrain is nonlinear owing to an exchange in strength with landslide thickness. Despite the variability in material strength at large scales, the observed gradient in proportional cohesive strength with landslide thickness may serve as a proxy for subsurface weathering. We posit that the observed relationships between strength and landslide thickness are associated with the coalescence of zones of low shear strength driven by fractures and weathering, which constitutes a first-order control on the mechanical behavior of underlying soil and rock mass.

Oregon↗
USGS2022

Seismic multi-hazard and impact estimation via causal inference from satellite imagery

Rapid post-earthquake reconnaissance is important for emergency responses and rehabilitation by providing accurate and timely information about secondary hazards and impacts, including landslide, liquefaction, and building damage. Despite the extensive collection of geospatial data and satellite images, existing physics-based and data-driven methods suffer from low estimation performance due to the complex and event-specific causal dependencies underlying the cascading processes of earthquake-triggered hazards and impacts. Herein, we present a rapid seismic multi-hazard and impact estimation system that leverages advanced statistical causal inference and remote sensing techniques. The unique feature of this system is that it provides accurate and high-resolution estimations on a regional scale by jointly inferring multiple hazards and building damage from satellite images through modeling their causal dependencies. We evaluate our system on multiple seismic events from diverse countries around the globe. Our results corroborate that incorporating causal dependencies significantly improves large-scale estimation accuracy for multiple hazards and impacts compared to existing systems. The results also reveal quantitative causal mechanisms among earthquake-triggered multi-hazard and impact for multiple seismic events. Our system establishes a new way to extract and utilize the complex interactions of multiple hazards and impacts for effective disaster responses and advancing understanding of seismic geological processes.

Nature Communications↗