Substantial hysteresis in emergent temperature sensitivity of global wetland CH4 emissions

Abstract

Wetland methane (CH 4 ) emissions ( FCH 4 ) are important in global carbon budgets and climate change assessments. Currently, FCH 4 projections rely on prescribed static temperature sensitivity that varies among biogeochemical models. Meta-analyses have proposed a consistent FCH 4 temperature dependence across spatial scales for use in models; however, site-level studies demonstrate that FCH 4 are often controlled by factors beyond temperature. Here, we evaluate the relationship between FCH 4 and temperature using observations from the FLUXNET-CH 4 database. Measurements collected across the globe show substantial seasonal hysteresis between FCH 4 and temperature, suggesting larger FCH 4 sensitivity to temperature later in the frost-free season (about 77% of site-years). Results derived from a machine-learning model and several regression models highlight the importance of representing the large spatial and temporal variability within site-years and ecosystem types. Mechanistic advancements in biogeochemical model parameterization and detailed measurements in factors modulating CH 4 production are thus needed to improve global CH 4 budget assessments.