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USGS2023

John Wesley Powell Center for Analysis and Synthesis Newsletter, volume 7, issue 1

The John Wesley Powell Center for Synthesis & Analysis is a USGS initiative that aims to foster innovative thinking in Earth system science through collaborative analysis and synthesis of existing data and information. The Powell Center supports working groups that address some of the most pressing and complex questions facing society, such as climate change, biodiversity loss, water scarcity, natural hazards, and human-environment interactions. In this newsletter, we highlight some of the recent activities of the Powell Center and its working groups.

John Wesley Powell Center for Analysis and Synthes↗
USGS2018

Decision making for mitigating wildlife diseases: From theory to practice for an emerging fungal pathogen of amphibians

Conservation science can be most effective in its decision‐support role when seeking answers to clearly formulated questions of direct management relevance. Emerging wildlife diseases, a driver of global biodiversity loss, illustrate the challenges of performing this role: in spite of considerable research, successful disease mitigation is uncommon. Decision analysis is increasingly advocated to guide mitigation planning, but its application remains rare. Using an integral projection model, we explored potential mitigation actions for avoiding population declines and the ongoing spatial spread of the fungus Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans ( Bsal ). This fungus has recently caused severe amphibian declines in north‐western Europe and currently threatens Palearctic salamander diversity. Available evidence suggests that a Bsal outbreak in a fire salamander ( Salamandra salamandra ) population will lead to its rapid extirpation. Treatments such as antifungals or probiotics would need to effectively interrupt transmission (reduce probability of infection by nearly 90%) in order to reduce the risk of host extirpation and successfully eradicate the pathogen. Improving the survival of infected hosts is most likely to be detrimental as it increases the potential for pathogen transmission and spread. Active removal of a large proportion of the host population has some potential to locally eradicate Bsal and interrupt its spread, depending on the presence of Bsal reservoirs and on the host's spatial dynamics, which should therefore represent research priorities. Synthesis and applications . Mitigation of Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans epidemics in susceptible host species is highly challenging, requiring effective interruption of transmission and radical removal of host individuals. More generally, our study illustrates the advantages of framing conservation science directly in the management decision context, rather than adapting to it a posteriori .

Journal of Applied Ecology↗
USGS2021

Material failure and caldera collapse: Insights from the 2018 Kilauea eruption

The Failure Forecast Method (FFM) was introduced as an empirical model for forecasting catastrophic material failures related to natural hazards, such as landslides and volcanic eruptions, with mixed success. During the 2018 eruption of Kilauea volcano, Hawaii, the draining of the summit magma reservoir into the Lower East Rift Zone resulted in the formation of a new caldera at the summit. I tested the applicability of the FFM to caldera collapse by analyzing the cyclical earthquake swarms and ground deformation that occurred between 62 sudden major caldera collapse events. The progression of both the cumulative moment release of the cyclical earthquakes and the GNSS displacement show a major change in mid-June. In late May through early June, the progression of the parameters is consistent with strain localization or creep progression related to the development or activation of the ring fault system. From late June until the end of the eruption, parameter progression is roughly steady with initial accelerating increases in cumulative moment and displacement that shift to approximately linear progression. Analysis of repeating earthquake families in the cyclical swarms showed that the behavior of the repeaters was consistent with that of the cyclical swarms as a whole and suggested that each family undergoes its own progression of activation to termination. While the FFM analysis identified the system change in mid-June, it did not demonstrate an ability to forecast collapse events or the end of the eruption.

Hawaii↗
USGS2023

Impacts of acute and chronic suspended solids exposure on juvenile freshwater mussels

Construction activities may affect adjacent water systems by introducing increased levels of suspended solids into the water body and may subsequently affect the survival and growth of freshwater mussels. We tested three sediment types from sites in Missouri, including Spring River sediment (SRS), Osage River bank clay soil (ORC), and quarried limestone from Columbia (LMT). We prepared series of suspensions of each sediment with total suspended solids concentrations ranging from 0 to 5000 mg/L. Juveniles from three mussel species, Fatmucket ( Lampsilis siliquoidea ), Arkansas Brokenray ( Lampsilis reeveiana ), and Washboard ( Megalonaias nervosa ) were exposed to these suspensions in both acute (96-h) and chronic (28-d) tests. No clear impact on survival was observed from the acute or chronic exposures, but chronic test showed that juvenile mussels' growth was strongly affected. Interestingly, growth was enhanced at lower levels of SRS and ORC (≤500 mg/L, p < 0.05), and the juvenile mussels exposed to 500 mg/L SRS exhibited approximately 60 % more dry weight than those reared in the control. LMT did not enhance growth. Growth was slowed by high concentrations (>1000 mg/L) of all three sediments, implying that high suspended solids levels could reduce survival in the long term. Our findings may help to inform regulations and guidelines for construction activities to minimize adverse effects on juvenile mussels.

Science of the Total Environment↗
USGS2002

Dieback of Acacia koa in Hawaii: Ecological and pathological characteristics of affected stands

Koa (Acacia koa) is an endemic Hawaiian tree that serves as a keystone species in the upper elevation forests of all the main islands. In the Mauna Loa Strip area of Hawaii Volcanoes National Park, mature koa stands are suffering from an unexplained dieback that has increased in severity since it was first noticed approximately 25 years ago. The dieback is often evident in patches, and generally spreads within stands in a radial fashion from a localized infection center. Entire crowns of affected trees become wilted, with foliage gradually progressing from an apparent healthy to a completely chlorotic condition. Although most trees die soon after the onset of symptoms, some trees are able to survive crown death by producing epicormic shoots on the lower portions of the trunk. Previously published studies reported that a vascular wilt fungus (Fusarium oxysporum f. sp. koae) was associated with koa seeds and the rhizosphere of healthy and dieback-affected koa stands. The purpose of this study was to characterize the stand structure, soil conditions, and physiological condition of dieback-affected trees, and to assess the possible role of F. oxysporum f. sp. koae in the current dieback stands. This fungus was isolated from branches of symptomatic koa in dieback-affected stands and roots from healthy and dieback-affected stands. Possible differences in the pathogenicity and virulence of F. oxysporum f. sp. koae isolates obtained from the roots of healthy koa in unaffected stands and those from branches of dieback-affected koa were determined by greenhouse inoculations of koa seedlings. Healthy koa saplings in stands unaffected by dieback were also inoculated to determine if disease symptoms could be induced by inoculation of injured roots in the field. Both branch and root isolates were pathogenic; with the percent mortality of inoculated seedlings ranging from 30 to 60% for all isolates. Disease severity between branch and root isolates was not significantly different. Wilt symptoms were not observed in field inoculations of koa saplings after 8 months. Investigation of the dieback stand structure determined that the larger size classes (i.e., DBH > 3 cm) were all affected equally, with the smallest size class (i.e., 0-3 cm DBH) having the lowest percentage of dieback at each site. Soil from dieback stands had higher water content and was more acidic than that from neighboring unaffected stands. Phyllodes on epicormic shoots of dieback trees had a reduced area, mass, and mass to area ratio. Phyllodes on dieback trees also had reduced stomatal conductance and higher (less negative) leaf water potential. Results from the greenhouse inoculations demonstrated that F. oxysporum f. sp. koae is pathogenic to koa, but the pathogen's activity in the field may be influenced by predisposing factors such as temperature fluctuations, water availability, soil type, and interactions with other soil organisms. F. oxysporum f. sp. koae appears to play an important role in regulating koa stand dynamics, growth, and physiology under environmental and edaphic conditions favorable for disease development. ?? 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Forest Ecology and Management↗
USGS2024

Perfluorohexanesulfonic acid (PFHxS) impairs lipid homeostasis in zebrafish larvae through activation of PPARα

Perfluorohexanesulfonic acid (PFHxS), an emerging short-chain per- and polyfluoroalkyl substance, has been frequently detected in aquatic environments. Adverse outcome pathway studies have shown that perfluorinated compounds impair lipid homeostasis through peroxisome proliferator activated receptors (PPARs). However, many of these studies were performed at high concentrations and may thus be a result of overt toxicity. To better characterize the molecular and key events of PFHxS to biota, early life-stage zebrafish ( Danio rerio ) were exposed to concentrations detected in the environment (0.01, 0.1, 1, and 10 μg/L). Lipidomic and transcriptomic evaluations were integrated to predict potential molecular targets. PFHxS significantly impaired lipid homeostasis by the dysregulation of glycerophospholipids, fatty acyls, glycerolipids, sphingolipids, prenol lipids, and sterol lipids. Informatic analyses of the lipidome and transcriptome indicated alterations of the PPAR signaling pathway, with downstream changes to retinol, linoleic acid, and glycerophospholipid metabolism. To assess the role of PPARs, potential binding of PFHxS to PPARs was predicted and animals were coexposed to a PPAR antagonist (GW6471). Molecular simulation indicated PFHxS had a 27.1% better binding affinity than oleic acid, an endogenous agonist of PPARα. Antagonist coexposures rescued impaired glycerophosphocholine concentrations altered by PFHxS. These data indicate PPARα activation may be an important molecular initiating event for PFHxS.

Environmental Science & Technology↗
USGS1964

Natural carbon-14 activity of organic substances in streams

Carbon-14 measurements made on organic contaminants extracted from streams show percentages of industrial waste and domestic sewage. The method, used previously for studies of the atmosphere, can be used in studies of pollution sources.

Science↗
USGS2004

Fish-habitat modeling for gap analysis to conserve the endangered Topeka shiner (Notropis topeka)

Decision support tools that predict fish distribution over broad spatial scales are needed to assist in planning watershed management and endangered species recovery. We developed a geographical information system model with multivariate logistic regression to rank valley segments for probable occurrence of the endangered Topeka shiner (Notropis topeka) using stream condition variables (stream size, groundwater potential, channel slope, streamflow, network position) and land-cover variables (percent pasture, percent trees) in streams characteristic of the North American Great Plains. The stream condition and land-cover models correctly classified 89% and 68% of outcomes (i.e., presence or absence), respectively. Field tests of maps of predicted species distribution resulted in more species occurrences than expected in valley segments classified as high potential for presence and less than expected in low-potential valley segments. Gaps between high-priority segments and protected land parcels were found in all basins. In 37 basins with Topeka shiners, protected land coverage was <1% in 17 basins, 1-5% in 10 basins, and 5-21.8% in 10 basins. Conservation activities in gaps are long-term conservation measures, but maps of predicted species distribution have many immediate applications.

Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences↗
USGS2021

Nitrogen in the Chesapeake Bay watershed—A century of change, 1950–2050

Foreword Sustaining the quality of the Nation’s water resources and the health of our diverse ecosystems depends on the availability of sound water-resources data and information to develop effective, science-based policies. Effective management of water resources also brings more certainty and efficiency to important economic sectors. Taken together, these actions lead to immediate and long-term economic, social, and environmental benefits that will make a difference to the lives of the almost 400 million people projected to live in the United States by 2050. The Chesapeake Bay is the largest and most productive estuary in the United States and is a vital environmental and economic resource. Approximately half of the water volume of the Chesapeake Bay originates from streams and rivers that drain the 64,243 mi 2 Chesapeake Bay watershed. The Bay and its tributaries have been degraded by excessive nutrients, such as nitrogen, from contributing watersheds. Inputs of nitrogen to the Bay lead to increased algal growth, decreased dissolved oxygen, and declining fisheries. In 2000, the Chesapeake Bay was listed as impaired under the Clean Water Act and Total Maximum Daily Loads (TMDLs) for nutrients and sediment have been established to assist with management actions aimed at nutrient reductions. Effective nutrient management requires an understanding of past, present, and future nutrient sources, fate, and transport in the watershed. The Chesapeake Bay community has been a pioneer in science, management, and regulation to improve water quality. Factors like climate, hydrology, source inputs, and management controls play a vital role in determining the delivery and magnitude of nitrogen inputs to the Bay. Science in the form of monitoring data, predictive tools, and interpretive reports can help inform decisions to better balance the use and control of nitrogen in coastal areas. The findings in this report can contribute to effective management of the Bay and its watershed by providing a synthesis of the understanding of how human activities and environmental change in the watershed in the past, present, and future will influence the export of nitrogen to the Bay. We hope this publication will provide you with insights and information to meet your water resource needs and will foster increased civilian awareness and involvement in the protection and restoration of our Nation’s waters. The information in this report is intended primarily for those interested or involved in resource management and protection, conservation, regulation, and policymaking at the regional and national levels.

Chesapeake Bay watershed↗
USGS2018

Nearshore coastal bathymetry data collected in 2016 from West Ship Island to Horn Island, Gulf Islands National Seashore, Mississippi

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center, in cooperation with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Mobile District, conducted bathymetric surveys of the nearshore waters surrounding Ship and Horn Islands, Gulf Islands National Seashore, Mississippi. The objective of this study was to establish base-level elevation conditions around West Ship, East Ship, and Horn Islands and their associated active littoral system prior to restoration activities. These activities include the closure of Camille Cut and the placement of sediment in the littoral zone of East Ship Island. These surveys can be compared with future surveys to monitor sediment migration patterns post-restoration and can also be measured against historic bathymetric datasets to further our understanding of island evolution. The USGS collected 667 line-kilometers (km) of single-beam bathymetry data and 844 line-km of interferometric swath bathymetry data in July 2016 under Field Activity Number 2016-347-FA. Data are provided in three datums: (1) the International Terrestrial Reference Frame of 2000 (ellipsoid height); (2) the North American Datum of 1983 (NAD83) CORS96 realization and the North American Vertical Datum of 1988 with respect to the GEOID12B model (orthometric height); and (3) NAD83 (CORS96) and Mean Lower Low Water (tidal datum). Data products, including x,y,z point datasets, trackline shapefiles, digital and handwritten Field Activity Collection Systems logs, 50-meter digital elevation model, and formal Federal Geographic Data Committee metadata, are available for download.

Mississippi↗
USGS2009

U.S. Geological Survey Science Strategy for the Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative

Southwest Wyoming's wildlife and habitat resources are increasingly affected by energy and urban/exurban development, climate change, and other key drivers of ecosystem change. To ensure that southwest Wyoming's wildlife populations and habitats persist in the face of development and other changes, a consortium of public resource-management agencies proposed the Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative (WLCI), the overall goal of which is to implement conservation actions. As the principal agency charged with conducting WLCI science, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has developed a Science Strategy for the WLCI. Workshops were held for all interested parties to identify and refine the most pressing management needs for achieving WLCI goals. Research approaches for addressing those needs include developing conceptual models for understanding ecosystem function, identifying key drivers of change affecting WLCI ecosystems, and conducting scientific monitoring and experimental studies to better understand ecosystems processes, cumulative effects of change, and effectiveness of habitat treatments. The management needs drive an iterative, three-phase framework developed for structuring and growing WLCI science efforts: Phase I entails synthesizing existing information to assess current conditions, determining what is already known about WLCI ecosystems, and providing a foundation for future work; Phase II entails conducting targeted research and monitoring to address gaps in data and knowledge during Phase I; and Phase III entails integrating new knowledge into WLCI activities and coordinating WLCI partners and collaborators. Throughout all three phases, information is managed and made accessible to interested parties and used to guide and improve management and conservation actions, future habitat treatments, best management practices, and other conservation activities.

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2004

The northwestern slope valleys (NSVs) region, Mars: A prime candidate site for the future exploration of Mars

The northwestern slope valleys region is a prime candidate site for future science-driven Mars exploration because it records Noachian to Amazonian Tharsis development in a region that encapsulates (1) a diverse and temporally extensive stratigraphic record, (2) at least three distinct paleohydrologic regimes, (3) gargantuan structurally controlled flood valleys that generally correspond with gravity and magnetic anomalies, possibly marking ancient magnetized rock materials exposed by fluvial activity, (4) water enrichment, as indicated by Mars Odyssey and impact crater analyses, (5) long-lived magma and ground water/ice interactions that could be favorable for the development and sustenance of life, and (6) potential paleosol development. This region has high probability to yield significant geologic, climatic, and exobiologic information that could revolutionize our understanding of Mars. ?? 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2021

Mars: Abundant recurring slope lineae (RSL) following the planet-encircling dust event (PEDE) of 2018

Recurring slope lineae (RSL) are dark linear markings on Mars that regrow annually and likely originate from the flow of either liquid water or granular material. Following the great dust storm (or planet-encircling dust event, PEDE) of Mars year (MY) 34, Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter/High Resolution Imaging Science Experiment has seen many more candidate RSL than in typical Mars years. They have been imaged at more than 285 unique locations from August 2018 (when the atmosphere was clearing as the PEDE decayed) to August 2019, about half (157) of which are locations where RSL have not been documented previously. In MY34, 150 active RSL sites were identified in the southern middle latitudes (SML, -60° to -30°), whereas an average of 36 active sites were observed in each previous year (MY28–33). Post-PEDE RSL are also present during southern summer over a wider range of latitude, slope aspect, and L s (areocentric longitude of the sun) than in prior years. These RSL sites usually show evidence for recent dust deposition: obscuration of relatively dark areas, an overall brighter and redder surface than in prior years, and dust devil tracks, which indicate dust lifting by several mechanisms. We speculate that dust-lifting processes may initiate and sustain RSL activity. The RSL may form from flows of dust (perhaps clumped) and/or sand that is destabilized by dust movement or directly mobilized by dust devils. If this is the case, then the otherwise puzzling recurrence and year-to-year variability of RSL activity can be at least partly explained. The dust replenishment varies from year to year, which could explain interannual variations in RSL activity.

Journal of Geophysical Research: Planets↗
USGS2019

Informing planning and management through visitor experiences in Grand Staircase-Escalante National Monument

Policies mandate that managers at Grand Staircase-Escalante National Monument must balance recreational opportunities with a variety of resource management and utilization activities across a vast and diverse landscape containing numerous Wilderness Study Areas and other lands containing spectacular resources. This balancing act is stressed by increasing levels of use and recent changes in management direction and policy. An understanding of visitor preferences and current social conditions is an essential component of recreation management; however, scant social science data exist for the Monument. This study used semistructured qualitative interviews to describe Monument visitors’ motivations, experiences, and perceptions to determine existing social conditions. Results can help inform possible indicators of quality that can be used for long-term monitoring and adaptive management of the Monument’s unique wilderness resource.

Utah↗
USGS2017

Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Units Program—2016 year in review

Summary The Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Units (CRU) Program had a productive year in 2016. Despite vacancies in our scientist ranks exceeding 20 percent, our research, training, and teaching portfolio was full and we graduated 93 students and published 398 manuscripts primarily focused on addressing the real conservation challenges of our cooperators. As I’ve stated before, our mission is our legacy: meeting the actionable science needs of our cooperators, providing them technical guidance and assistance in interpreting and applying new advances in science, and developing the future workforce through graduate education and mentoring. Our scientists and the manner in which they approach our mission continue to inspire me. The most rewarding part of my job is meeting and engaging with the students they recruit—the conservation professionals of the future. I cannot help but feel uplifted after discussions with and presentations by these young men and women. Personally, I owe my place in the profession today to the mentoring I received as a CRU student, and today’s CRU scientists have raised the bar. It gives me hope for the future of conservation, and added motivation to see our vacancies filled so that we can expand our portfolio. The National Cooperators’ Coalition has been active and is strategically working to build support on our behalf. Sincere thanks to the American Fisheries Society, the Association of Fish and Wildlife Agencies, the Boone and Crockett Club, the National Association of University Fish and Wildlife Programs, the Wildlife Management Institute, and The Wildlife Society for their efforts and those of their affiliated members. We co-sponsored a workshop at the 2016 North American Wildlife and Natural Resources Conference along with the American Fisheries Society, the Association of Fish and Wildlife Agencies, the Wildlife Management Institute, and The Wildlife Society, titled “Barriers and Bridges in Reconnecting Natural Resources Science and Management.” The workshop was well received and we have been asked to continue the dialogue with a second workshop in 2017. It was evident during the workshop that the CRU is viewed by our cooperators as an important and essential linkage between academia and practitioners. This is testament to the legacy of the CRU Program and the foundation it is built upon. In this Year in Review report, you will find details on staffing, vacancies, research funding, and other pertinent information. You will also see snapshots of CRU projects with information on how results have been or are being applied by cooperators. That is the essence of what we do: science that matters.

Circular↗
USGS2019

Differentiating anthropogenic and natural sources of uranium by geochemical fingerprinting of groundwater at the Homestake Uranium Mill, Milan, New Mexico, USA

A multiparameter geochemical-isotopic fingerprinting approach was used to differentiate natural and anthropogenic signatures of uranium contamination near the Homestake uranium mill site (Site), near Milan, New Mexico, USA. The Site consists of two tailings piles from milling operations and groundwater contamination from these tailings have been noted. The Site lies within the lower San Mateo Creek Basin with multiple regional sources of U contamination from mining and mill operations and is underlain by a heterogeneous alluvial aquifer, which is underlain by basement rock of the Chinle Group and the lowermost San Andres-Glorieta aquifer. To help decipher signatures, several statistical approaches were used including PCA, NMDS, and cluster analysis. Trilinear piper diagrams indicate two end member water types at the Site, sulfate-Na-K and sulfate-Ca. Natural alluvial aquifer groundwater in this area, relatively unaffected by mining or milling, appears to be more dominated by bicarbonate than sulfate and the deeper San Andres-Glorieta aquifer that has a mixture of sulfate and bicarbonate. Uranium concentrations from the Site fall into three broad categories, less than the drinking water standard of 30 µg/L (n=3), from 30 to 100 µg/L (n=9) and greater than 100 µg/L (n=8). Component loadings in a principal component analysis are highest for uranium isotopes, 228Ra, gross alpha-beta, molybdenum, chloride, uranium, and sodium, which affect the similarities or differences among wells sampled. Results suggest that several alluvial wells upgradient from the Site have anthropogenic fingerprints from regional sources related to upgradient mining. Wells with higher uranium concentrations have uranium activity ratios close to 1, which is indicative of mining or milling signatures. These same wells have elevated radon activities. This information can be used to inform Site managers on the source of water related to uranium at the Site and provide an approach for geochemical fingerprinting.

New Mexico↗
USGS2025

A network of refugia: Whooping Crane drought response informs international habitat conservation goals

Whooping Cranes land in a palustrine-emergent wetland amid row crop agriculture near Atkinson, Nebraska, during spring migration in April of 2020 (photo by M. L. Forsberg). From 2023 to 2024, the U.S. and Canada updated conservation plans for the Whooping Crane through international workshops. These forthcoming documents will reflect shared goals for wetland conservation aimed at boosting the species' resilience to climate change and habitat loss, which were informed by applied research regarding drought impacts on migrating Whooping Cranes. The active protection and management of hydrologically diverse wetland complexes can create climate refugia that help ensure the integrity of Whooping Crane migration through the Central Flyway into the foreseeable future.

Great Plains↗
USGS2019

Injection-induced earthquakes

Earthquakes in unusual locations have become an important topic of discussion in both North America and Europe, owing to the concern that industrial activity could cause damaging earthquakes. It has long been understood that earthquakes can be induced by impoundment of reservoirs, surface and underground mining, withdrawal of fluids and gas from the subsurface, and injection of fluids into underground formations. Injection-induced earthquakes have, in particular, become a focus of discussion as the application of hydraulic fracturing to tight shale formations is enabling the production of oil and gas from previously unproductive formations. Earthquakes can be induced as part of the process to stimulate the production from tight shale formations, or by disposal of wastewater associated with stimulation and production. Here, I review recent seismic activity that may be associated with industrial activity, with a focus on the disposal of wastewater by injection in deep wells; assess the scientific understanding of induced earthquakes; and discuss the key scientific challenges to be met for assessing this hazard.

Science↗