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At least 829 records · Page 46Linked to original sources
USGS2015

A dynamic population model to investigate effects of climate and climate-independent factors on the lifecycle of the tick Amblyomma americanum (Acari: Ixodidae)

The lone star tick, Amblyomma americanum , is a disease vector of significance for human and animal health throughout much of the eastern United States. To model the potential effects of climate change on this tick, a better understanding is needed of the relative roles of temperature-dependent and temperature-independent (day-length-dependent behavioral or morphogenetic diapause) processes acting on the tick lifecycle. In this study, we explored the roles of these processes by simulating seasonal activity patterns using models with site-specific temperature and day-length-dependent processes. We first modeled the transitions from engorged larvae to feeding nymphs, engorged nymphs to feeding adults, and engorged adult females to feeding larvae. The simulated seasonal patterns were compared against field observations at three locations in United States. Simulations suggested that 1) during the larva-to-nymph transition, some larvae undergo no diapause while others undergo morphogenetic diapause of engorged larvae; 2) molted adults undergo behavioral diapause during the transition from nymph-to-adult; and 3) there is no diapause during the adult-to-larva transition. A model constructed to simulate the full lifecycle of A. americanum successfully predicted observed tick activity at the three U.S. study locations. Some differences between observed and simulated seasonality patterns were observed, however, identifying the need for research to refine some model parameters. In simulations run using temperature data for Montreal, deterministic die-out of A. americanum populations did not occur, suggesting the possibility that current climate in parts of southern Canada is suitable for survival and reproduction of this tick.

Journal of Medical Entomology↗
USGS2018

Amendments fail to hasten biocrust recovery or soil stability at a disturbed dryland sandy site

In most drylands, biological soil crusts (biocrusts), an assemblage of lichens, bryophytes, fungi, green algae, and cyanobacteria, are critical to healthy ecosystem function. However, they are extremely sensitive to disturbance and attempts to facilitate their recovery have had variable success. In this study, we applied soil amendments designed to improve soil surface stability and accelerate biocrust recovery on an area disturbed by oil/gas exploration vehicles. Treatments included: 1) Control (one time water only); 2) Biocrust‐only: biocrust inoculum + nutrients in water; 3) Polyacrylamide gels (PAM; which are known to stabilize soils) + biocrust inoculum + nutrients in water; 4) Gypsum + biocrust inoculum + nutrients in water; and 5) Saline (NaCl) solution + biocrust inoculum + nutrients in water. Only the NaCl treatment showed any effects on soil properties and these were only short‐term. These effects included an increase in soil strength and a reduction in soil aggregate stability, unsaturated hydraulic conductivity (K h ), and cyanobacterial biomass. The inoculated biocrust material failed to develop and even after 10 years, there was only a very low natural recolonization of the plots. These results show that inoculating soils or applying these levels of soil amendments does not guarantee recovery of soil stability or biocrust, and that some sites are unlikely to recover without assistance. Thus, there is a need for more research into ways to enhance soil stability and identify the factors limiting biocrust establishment.

Restoration Ecology↗
USGS2019

The importance of simulation assumptions when evaluating detectability in population models

Population monitoring is important for investigating a variety of ecological questions, and N-mixture models are increasingly used to model population size (N) and trends (lambda) while estimating detectability (p) from repeated counts within primary periods (when populations are closed to changes). Extending these models to dynamic processes with serial dependence across primary periods may relax the closure assumption, but simulations to evaluate models and inform effort (e.g., number of repeated counts) typically assume p is constant or random across sites and years. Thus, it is unknown how these models perform under scenarios where trends in p confound inferences on N and lambda, and conclusions regarding effort may be overoptimistic. Here, we used global positioning system (GPS) data from greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) to inform simulations of the detection process for lek counts of this species, and we created scenarios with and without linear annual trends in p. We then compared estimates of N and lambda from hierarchical population models either fit with single maximum counts or with detectability estimated from repeated counts (dynamic N-mixture models). We also explored using auxiliary data to correct counts for variation in detectability. Uncorrected count models consistently underestimated N by >50% whereas N-mixture models without auxiliary data underestimated N to a lesser degree due to unmodeled heterogeneity in p such as age. Nevertheless, estimates of lambda from both types of models were unbiased and similar for scenarios without trends in p. When p declined systematically across years, uncorrected count models underestimated lambda whereas N-mixture models estimated lambda with little bias when all sites were counted repeatedly. Auxiliary data also reduced bias in parameter estimates. Evaluating population models using scenarios with systematic variation in p may better reveal potential biases and inform effort than simulations that assume p is constant or random. Dynamic N-mixture models can distinguish between trends in p and N, but also require repeated counts within primary periods for accurate estimates. Auxiliary data may be useful when researchers lack repeated counts, wish to monitor more sites less intensively, or require unbiased estimates of N.

Ecosphere↗
USGS2023

The Searsville Lake Site (California, USA) as a candidate Global boundary Stratotype Section and Point for the Anthropocene series

Cores from Searsville Lake within Stanford University’s Jasper Ridge Biological Preserve, California, USA, are examined to identify a potential GSSP for the Anthropocene: core JRBP2018-VC01B (944.5 cm-long) and tightly correlated JRBP2018-VC01A (852.5 cm-long). Spanning from 1900 CE ± 3 years to 2018 CE, a secure chronology resolved to the sub-annual level allows detailed exploration of the Holocene-Anthropocene transition. We identify the primary GSSP marker as first appearance of 239,240 Pu (372–374 cm) in JRBP2018-VC01B and designate the GSSP depth as the distinct boundary between wet and dry season at 366 cm (6 cm above the first sample containing 239,240 Pu) and corresponding to October-December 1948 CE. This is consistent with a lag of 1–2 years between ejection of 239,240 Pu into the atmosphere and deposition. Auxiliary markers include: first appearance of 137 Cs in 1958; late 20th-century decreases in δ 15 N; late 20th-century elevation in SCPs, Hg, Pb, and other heavy metals; and changes in abundance and presence of ostracod, algae, rotifer and protozoan microfossils. Fossil pollen document anthropogenic landscape changes related to logging and agriculture. As part of a major university, the Searsville site has long been used for research and education, serves users locally to internationally, and is protected yet accessible for future studies and communication about the Anthropocene.

California↗
USGS2025

U.S. Geological Survey Colorado River Basin science and technology collaboration meetings on drought (2021)—Synthesis of findings

Ongoing, prolonged, and severe drought and water overuse during the first two decades of the 21st century have reduced water supplies of the Colorado River Basin, with effects cascading to ecosystems and human communities throughout the basin. In June and July 2021, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Colorado River Basin Actionable and Strategic Integrated Science and Technology initiative team held a series of 12 collaboration meetings with USGS scientists and managers to discuss complicated, integrated science challenges and solutions related to drought in the Colorado River Basin. These Science and Technology collaboration meetings were structured to identify challenges experienced by meeting participants when working on complex problems, explore opportunities for coproducing scientific information, and envision future collaborative programs that leverage new technology. The 12 meetings were attended by 79 USGS staff representing 43 unique affiliations (for example, USGS science centers, mission areas, and regional offices). Meeting participants submitted 865 individual responses to six general discussion prompt topics (“Challenges,” “Knowledge Gaps,” “Existing Capabilities,” “Strategies and Actions,” “Example Applications,” and “Next Steps”) using a structured online collaboration tool. However, specific questions or tasks from each general discussion prompt varied by meeting topic. Terms from the USGS Thesaurus ( https://apps.usgs.gov/thesaurus/ ) and USGS Data Lifecycle Model ( https://www.usgs.gov/data-management/data-lifecycle ) were used to identify and summarize participant responses relevant to science integration, stakeholder engagement, and information management technology. From these responses, opportunities for the Colorado River Basin Actionable and Strategic Integrated Science and Technology initiative to facilitate science integration in the Colorado River Basin are highlighted in this report, including (a) pursuing specific interdisciplinary research topics that require integrating knowledge across spatial and temporal scales, (b) connecting scientists across disciplines, (c) reducing barriers to stakeholder engagement, (d) identifying new technologies, and (e) facilitating data access. Multiple strategies for designing future Science and Technology collaboration meetings are also outlined in this circular to better collect and analyze participant responses.

Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico,↗
USGS2013

Temporal, spatial, and body size effects on growth rates of loggerhead sea turtles ( Caretta caretta ) in the Northwest Atlantic

In response to a call from the US National Research Council for research programs to combine their data to improve sea turtle population assessments, we analyzed somatic growth data for Northwest Atlantic (NWA) loggerhead sea turtles (Caretta caretta) from 10 research programs. We assessed growth dynamics over wide ranges of geography (9–33°N latitude), time (1978–2012), and body size (35.4–103.3 cm carapace length). Generalized additive models revealed significant spatial and temporal variation in growth rates and a significant decline in growth rates with increasing body size. Growth was more rapid in waters south of the USA (<24°N) than in USA waters. Growth dynamics in southern waters in the NWA need more study because sample size was small. Within USA waters, the significant spatial effect in growth rates of immature loggerheads did not exhibit a consistent latitudinal trend. Growth rates declined significantly from 1997 through 2007 and then leveled off or increased. During this same interval, annual nest counts in Florida declined by 43 % (Witherington et al. in Ecol Appl 19:30–54, 2009) before rebounding. Whether these simultaneous declines reflect responses in productivity to a common environmental change should be explored to determine whether somatic growth rates can help interpret population trends based on annual counts of nests or nesting females. Because of the significant spatial and temporal variation in growth rates, population models of NWA loggerheads should avoid employing growth data from restricted spatial or temporal coverage to calculate demographic metrics such as age at sexual maturity.

Northwest Atlantic↗
USGS2018

Using geologic structures to constrain constitutive laws not accessible in the laboratory

In this essay, we explore a central problem of structural geology today, and in the foreseeable future, which is the determination of constitutive laws governing rock deformation to produce geologic structures. Although laboratory experiments provide much needed data and insights about constitutive laws, these experiments cannot cover the range of conditions and compositions relevant to the formation of geologic structures. We advocate that structural geologists address this limitation by interpreting natural experiments, documented with field and microstructural data, using continuum mechanical models that enable the deduction of constitutive laws. To put this procedure into a historical context, we review the founding of structural geology by James Hutton in the late 18th century, and the seminal contributions to continuum mechanics from Newton to Cauchy that provide the tools to model geologic structures. The procedure is illustrated with two examples drawn from recent and on-going field investigations of crustal and mantle lithologies . We conclude by pointing to future research opportunities that will engage structural geologists in the pursuit of constitutive laws during the 21st century.

Journal of Structural Geology↗
USGS2016

Science information to support Missouri River Scaphirhynchus albus (pallid sturgeon) effects analysis

The Missouri River Pallid Sturgeon Effects Analysis (EA) was commissioned by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers to develop a foundation of understanding of how pallid sturgeon ( Scaphirhynchus albus ) population dynamics are linked to management actions in the Missouri River. The EA consists of several steps: (1) development of comprehensive, conceptual ecological models illustrating pallid sturgeon population dynamics and links to management actions and other drivers; (2) compilation and assessment of available scientific literature, databases, and models; (3) development of predictive, quantitative models to explore the system dynamics and population responses to management actions; and (4) analysis and assessment of effects of system operations and actions on species&rsquo; habitats and populations. This report addresses the second objective, compilation and assessment of relevant information. Scientific information on pallid sturgeon and its environment has grown substantially during the last decade. Presently available (2015) information indicates that stocked sturgeon are surviving and growing, and that wild and hatchery sturgeon are spawning in the wild. However, natural recruitment to age-1 and older has not been detected since systematic sampling began in 2005. Population models indicate the sensitivity of population growth to certain demographic variables, in particular early-life stage survival and perhaps adult fecundity. This report documents the existing population models for the pallid sturgeon, and the substantial quantities of information developed through the Pallid Sturgeon Population Assessment Program (PSPAP), the Habitat Assessment and Monitoring Program (HAMP), the Comprehensive Sturgeon Research Project (CSRP), range-wide genetics databases, and related research studies. The reference database compiled for the EA consists of over 190 peer-reviewed documents specifically related to pallid sturgeon and over 12,000 references on the Missouri River system and related species. Notwithstanding the large quantity of information available, the EA faces challenges in synthesizing the information into useful, quantitative models. In particular, critical demographic parameters for population models remain uncertain and the functional relationships between the two main categories of physical management action&mdash;changes in flow regime and reengineering channel form&mdash;and pallid sturgeon survival responses are obscure. In addition, there is an overarching uncertainty about how physical management actions interact with propagation management actions in view of evolving understanding of genetic structuring of the pallid sturgeon population. Synthesis efforts are also challenged by the fragmentation of information sources among projects and agencies; one objective of this report is to facilitate future assessments by providing documentation of what information is available and where.

Iowa, Kansas, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, North D↗
USGS2024

Age, growth, and reproductive biology of Achilles tang (Acanthurus achilles) around Hawai'i Island, USA

A culturally important food fish in Hawai'i, Achilles tang ( Acanthurus achilles Shaw), recently experienced sharp declines in biomass, density, and average length in west Hawai'i Island. In December 2022, State resource managers placed a 2-year moratorium on the Achilles tang fishery in west Hawai'i Island so that the cause of the collapse could be explored. The lack of life-history information for Achilles tang from Hawai'i, or elsewhere in its range, has been noted as an impediment to decision-making. Therefore, our objectives were to characterize this population’s age, growth, and reproductive biology. In working with community fishers, we collected 363 individuals ranging 69 – 264 mm in fork length (FL) and 0 – 39 years in age based on estimates from otoliths. Achilles tang in Hawai'i exhibit a high growth rate, reaching 138 ± 11 mm FL (mean ± SE) in their first year, and exhibit relatively little growth after their second year (< 5 mm yr −1 ). The majority of males (92.0% of n = 101) and females (73.6% of n = 159) were classified as spawning capable or actively spawning, without annual or lunar periodicity. Our study highlights that the basic biology of Achilles tang poses unique challenges to fisheries managers looking to ensure its sustainable harvest. Future research will aim to characterize the susceptibility of recruits’ habitat to local environmental stressors and the relative connectivity of juvenile and adult habitats.

Hawaii↗
USGS2020

Testing ecosystem accounting in the United States: A case study for the Southeast

Ecosystem accounts, as formalized by the System of Environmental-Economic Accounting Experimental Ecosystem Accounts (SEEA EEA), have been compiled in a number of countries, yet there have been few attempts to develop them for the U.S. We explore the potential for U.S. ecosystem accounting by compiling ecosystem extent, condition, and ecosystem services supply and use accounts for a ten-state region in the Southeast. The pilot accounts address air quality, water quality, biodiversity, carbon storage, recreation, and pollination for selected years from 2001 to 2015. Results illustrate how information from ecosystem accounts can contribute to policy and decision-making. Using an example from Atlanta, we also show how ecosystem accounts can be considered alongside other SEEA accounts to give a more complete picture of a local area’s environmental-economic trends. The process by which we determined where to place metrics within the accounting framework, which was strongly informed by the National Ecosystem Services Classification System (NESCS), can provide guidance for future ecosystem accounts in the U.S. and other countries. Finally, we identify knowledge gaps that limit the inclusion of certain ecosystem services in the accounts and suggest future research that can close these gaps and improve future U.S. ecosystem accounts.

Missouri, Arkansas, Louisiana, Tennessee, Mississi↗
USGS2011

Study design and sampling intensity for demographic analyses of bear populations

The rate of population change through time (??) is a fundamental element of a wildlife population's conservation status, yet estimating it with acceptable precision for bears is difficult. For studies that follow known (usually marked) bears, ?? can be estimated during some defined time by applying either life-table or matrix projection methods to estimates of individual vital rates. Usually however, confidence intervals surrounding the estimate are broader than one would like. Using an estimator suggested by Doak et al. (2005), we explored the precision to be expected in ?? from demographic analyses of typical grizzly (Ursus arctos) and American black (U. americanus) bear data sets. We also evaluated some trade-offs among vital rates in sampling strategies. Confidence intervals around ?? were more sensitive to adding to the duration of a short (e.g., 3 yrs) than a long (e.g., 10 yrs) study, and more sensitive to adding additional bears to studies with small (e.g., 10 adult females/yr) than large (e.g., 30 adult females/yr) sample sizes. Confidence intervals of ?? projected using process-only variance of vital rates were only slightly smaller than those projected using total variances of vital rates. Under sampling constraints typical of most bear studies, it may be more efficient to invest additional resources into monitoring recruitment and juvenile survival rates of females already a part of the study, than to simply increase the sample size of study females. ?? 2011 International Association for Bear Research and Management.

Ursus↗
USGS2022

Assessing the seasonal evolution of snow depth spatial variability and scaling in complex mountain terrain

Dynamic natural processes govern snow distribution in mountainous environments throughout the world. Interactions between these different processes create spatially variable patterns of snow depth across a landscape. Variations in accumulation and redistribution occur at a variety of spatial scales, which are well established for moderate mountain terrain. However, spatial patterns of snow depth variability in steep, complex mountain terrain have not been fully explored due to insufficient spatial resolutions of snow depth measurement. Recent advances in uncrewed aerial systems (UASs) and structure from motion (SfM) photogrammetry provide an opportunity to map spatially continuous snow depths at high resolutions in these environments. Using UASs and SfM photogrammetry, we produced 11 snow depth maps at a steep couloir site in the Bridger Range of Montana, USA, during the 2019–2020 winter. We quantified the spatial scales of snow depth variability in this complex mountain terrain at a variety of resolutions over 2 orders of magnitude (0.02 to 20 m) and time steps (4 to 58 d) using variogram analysis in a high-performance computing environment. We found that spatial resolutions greater than 0.5 m do not capture the complete patterns of snow depth spatial variability within complex mountain terrain and that snow depths are autocorrelated within horizontal distances of 15 m at our study site. The results of this research have the potential to reduce uncertainty currently associated with snowpack and snow water resource analysis by documenting and quantifying snow depth variability and snowpack evolution on relatively inaccessible slopes in complex terrain at high spatial and temporal resolutions.

Montana↗
USGS2017

Natural and human-induced variability in barrier-island response to sea level rise

Storm-driven sediment fluxes onto and behind barrier islands help coastal barrier systems keep pace with sea level rise (SLR). Understanding what controls cross-shore sediment flux magnitudes is critical for making accurate forecasts of barrier response to increased SLR rates. Here, using an existing morphodynamic model for barrier island evolution, observations are used to constrain model parameters and explore potential variability in future barrier behavior. Using modeled drowning outcomes as a proxy for vulnerability to SLR, 0%, 28%, and 100% of the barrier is vulnerable to SLR rates of 4, 7, and 10 mm/yr, respectively. When only overwash fluxes are increased in the model, drowning vulnerability increases for the same rates of SLR, suggesting that future increases in storminess may increase island vulnerability particularly where sediment resources are limited. Developed sites are more vulnerable to SLR, indicating that anthropogenic changes to overwash fluxes and estuary depths could profoundly affect future barrier response to SLR.

New Jersey↗
USGS2020

Editorial: Contributions of behavior and physiology to conservation biology

Conservation biology is a rapidly evolving discipline, with its synthetic, multidisciplinary framework expanding extensively in recent years. Seemingly disparate disciplines, such as behavior and physiology, are being integrated into this discipline's growing portfolio, resulting in diverse tools that can help develop conservation solutions. Behavior and physiology have traditionally been considered separate fields, yet their integration can provide a more comprehensive approach to developing solutions to conservation and management problems. However, demonstrations are needed of how behavior and physiology—either separately or combined—have contributed to conservation success. Examining species' vulnerabilities to extinction through the lenses of behavior and physiology can provide insight into the mechanisms that drive population declines and extirpations. Our goal is to increase awareness of the benefit of combining behavioral and physiological tools to improve conservation management decisions. Such studies can also help strengthen the basis for evidence-based conservation which, in some cases, has been previously lacking. The diverse studies in our Research Topic illustrate key examples of ways that behavior and physiology can be incorporated into conservation biology. Three main themes emerged from the invited papers with respect to their relevance to conservation: (1) Stress physiology, (2) indicators of health and disease dynamics, (3) and movement ecology. But these themes were also intertwined, thus showing the importance of integrating multiple fields of research to successfully address questions about conservation biology. Two mini reviews discuss the importance of examining how stress physiology may affect individual fitness and capacity to cope with change which, ultimately, affects the resiliency of populations. Walls and Gabor, in their mini review, promoted combining studies of behavior and physiology to aid in developing conservation strategies for amphibians, which could provide conservation managers with workable solutions to global environmental change. Walls and Gabor also pointed out that studies of behavior are useful to understand how native amphibian species respond to invasive predators. This is supported by Roznik et al. who combined physiology and behavior for a more holistic understanding of the impacts of competition between native and invasive frogs. These authors found that invasive Cuban tree frogs outperformed two native species in jump length and speed, offsetting the costs of dehydration. This work also ties in well to a review by Joly, who indicated the importance of exploring movement ecology (on multiple spatial scales) of invasive species to provide insights for invasive species management. Walls and Gabor also emphasized that more studies on phenological shifts of species in response to recent climate change are needed, as explored by Bókony et al. with birds. These authors found that bird species varied their migratory behaviors in response to contemporary climate change which, in turn, influenced subsequent trends in population size.

Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2020

Amphibian population declines: 30 Years of progress in confronting a complex problem

In 1989, it dawned on participants at the First World Congress of Herpetology that observed declines in amphibian populations might actually be global in scope and unprecedented in severity. Three decades of research since then has produced an enormous increase in our knowledge of amphibian ecology and appreciation of the complexity of possible causes for amphibian population declines. In September 2019, 30 yr after the First World Congress ended, a day-long, international symposium on amphibian population declines was held at the Redpath Museum of McGill University in Montreal, Canada. Symposium participants drew upon the knowledge gained over three decades of study to look ahead with fresh ideas to address this vital aspect of the global decline of biodiversity. Despite tremendous progress over the past three decades there is still much about amphibian ecology, population biology, and pathology that remains unknown. Amphibian declines have turned out to be more complex than originally expected and the result of multiple possible causes acting across landscapes, among taxa, or between populations in ways that are not at all uniform. The papers in this special issue of Herpetologica , which stem from the symposium, explore much of our current understanding of amphibian declines and their causes.

Herpetologica↗
USGS2004

Using Forward Looking Infrared (FLIR) imagery to detect polar bear maternal dens: Operations manual

Recent research has shown that Forward Looking Infia-Red (FLIR) imagery can detect polar bear dens despite total snow cover over their deming habitat. FLIR imagers detect a AT or difference in temperature between objects in the imager's field of view. During the Arctic winter, the groundlsnow surface is typically cold, providing a dark background in the FLIR imager. Sources of heat appear as lighter or white areas. Dens, in particular, appear as small bright "hotspots", usually with kzy boundaries (Appendix 1). Most commonly, since bears chose deep snow drifts for deming, dens can be distinguished from the normally dark (cold) band of drifted snow surrounding them. This innovation has the potential to prevent human activities fiom disturbing deming polar bears by allowing managers to discover dens before potentially disruptive activities begin. This is important because expanding resource extraction in Alaska's Arctic regions may threaten the welfare of polar bears and their habitat. In recent years, exploration and development activities have expanded east and west of the original oil fields of Prudhoe Bay. Hydrocarbon extraction is now occurring or planned along much of the central Beaufort Sea coast. As development continues into the National Petroleum Reserve, the scope of expansion could include 213 of the northern coastal region of Alaska. Industrial activities are a potential threat to polar bears, especially as they might disturb bears in maternal dens (Lentfer and Hensel 1980, Stirling 1990, Stirling and Andriashek 1992, Amstrup 1993, Amstrup and Gardner 1994). As the number of humans and their activities have increased in recent years, there has been a concurrent increase in the number of female polar bears deming on land (Amstrup and Gardner 1994). Therefore, the probability of disrupting maternal deming can be expected to increase in the future. Using FLIR surveys to detect bears in dens could reduce or eliminate that probability. The purpose of this manual is to provide agency and private sector land managers with the information necessary to perform effective FLIR surveys to detect maternal dens. A list of personnel who can provide additional information is provided in Appendix 2.

BOEM↗
USGS2024

Ten quick tips to get you started with Bayesian statistics

Bayesian statistics is a framework in which our knowledge about unknown quantities of interest (especially parameters) is updated with the information in observed data, though it can also be viewed as simply another method to fit a statistical model. It has become popular in many branches of biology. For context, five of the ten most cited papers in Web of Science with keywords 'Bayesian statistics' are related to biology (as of August 19, 2024). Bayesian statistics is particularly valuable for biology because it allows researchers to incorporate prior knowledge, handle complex systems, and work effectively with limited or messy data. However, most biologists are trained in frequentist techniques, and the learning curve to become fluent in Bayesian statistics may be perceived as too time-consuming to undertake, or the prospect of adopting an unfamiliar statistical framework can simply appear too daunting. We provide a list of 10 tips to help you get started with Bayesian statistics. You can also refer to the Glossary for definitions of the technical terms. This paper isn’t just for newcomers; even those with some experience in Bayesian methods may find it a useful roadmap to design, conduct, and publish Bayesian analyses. We’ve drawn mainly on our experience teaching and working with ecologists, but we hope these tips will be relevant to a broader audience of biologists. For those seeking to deepen their understanding, we point to more comprehensive resources that offer in-depth exploration of Bayesian statistics.

HAL Open Science↗
USGS2024

Effects and perceptions of weather, climate, and climate change on outdoor recreation and nature-based tourism in the United States: A systematic review

Weather, climate, and climate change all effect outdoor recreation and tourism, and will continue to cause a multitude of effects as the climate warms. We conduct a systematic literature review to better understand how weather, climate, and climate change affect outdoor recreation and nature-based tourism across the United States. We specifically explore how the effects differ by recreational activity, and how visitors and supply-side tourism operators perceive these effects and risks. The 82 papers reviewed show the complex ways in which weather, climate, and climate change may affect outdoor recreation, with common themes being an extended season to participate in warm-weather activities, a shorter season to participate in snow-dependent activities, and larger negative effects to activities that depend on somewhat consistent precipitation levels (e.g., snow-based recreation, water-based recreation, fishing). Nature-based tourists perceive a variety of climate change effects on tourism, and some recreationists have already changed their behavior as a result of climate change. Nature-based tourism suppliers are already noticing a wide variety of climate change effects, including shifts in seasonality of specific activities and visitation overall. Collectively, this review provides insights into our current understanding of climate change and outdoor recreation and opportunities for future research.

PLOS Climate↗