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At least 811 records · Page 45Linked to original sources
USGS2011

Adaptive resource management and the value of information

The value of information is a general and broadly applicable concept that has been used for several decades to aid in making decisions in the face of uncertainty. Yet there are relatively few examples of its use in ecology and natural resources management, and almost none that are framed in terms of the future impacts of management decisions. In this paper we discuss the value of information in a context of adaptive management, in which actions are taken sequentially over a timeframe and both future resource conditions and residual uncertainties about resource responses are taken into account. Our objective is to derive the value of reducing or eliminating uncertainty in adaptive decision making. We describe several measures of the value of information, with each based on management objectives that are appropriate for adaptive management. We highlight some mathematical properties of these measures, discuss their geometries, and illustrate them with an example in natural resources management. Accounting for the value of information can help to inform decisions about whether and how much to monitor resource conditions through time.

Ecological Modelling↗
USGS2012

Reducing uncertainty about objective functions in adaptive management

This paper extends the uncertainty framework of adaptive management to include uncertainty about the objectives to be used in guiding decisions. Adaptive decision making typically assumes explicit and agreed-upon objectives for management, but allows for uncertainty as to the structure of the decision process that generates change through time. Yet it is not unusual for there to be uncertainty (or disagreement) about objectives, with different stakeholders expressing different views not only about resource responses to management but also about the appropriate management objectives. In this paper I extend the treatment of uncertainty in adaptive management, and describe a stochastic structure for the joint occurrence of uncertainty about objectives as well as models, and show how adaptive decision making and the assessment of post-decision monitoring data can be used to reduce uncertainties of both kinds. Different degrees of association between model and objective uncertainty lead to different patterns of learning about objectives.

Ecological Modelling↗
USGS2024

Advancing knowledge pluralism and cultural benefits in ecosystem services theory and application

Improved consideration of the cultural benefits of ecosystem services (ES) requires attention to knowledge pluralism in addition to value pluralism. Theorists have increasingly argued that meaningful inclusion of cultural benefits of ES requires attention to plural values, beyond the individual, instrumental values associated with ecosystems. However, there has been little engagement around the role of knowledge pluralism as a foundational enabling factor for meaningful consideration of plural values. This paper contributes to a conceptual toolkit for implementation of knowledge pluralism in ES theory and application by (re)conceptualizing ES-knowledge as a knowledge system. This can support personal and collective reflexivity around the role of worldviews embedded in our institutions, and illuminate what is at stake when assumptions about human-nature relationship and well-being remain hidden. Further, by locating benefits-knowledge as a core element of the ES-knowledge-system, we can imagine a greater range of possible cultural-benefits-knowledge-forms and improve our ability to comprehend and convey the plural values of cultural benefits of ES, as they arise across cultural contexts.

Ecosystem Services↗
USGS2024

Opportunities for improved consideration of cultural benefits in environmental decision-making

Many cultural benefits of ecosystem services (ES) are difficult to capture in standard ES assessments. Scholars and practitioners often respond to this gap by seeking to develop new scientific methods to capture and integrate the plural values associated with diverse cultural benefits categories. This increasing emphasis on value pluralism represents an essential step toward recognitional justice within ES theory and practice. However, current approaches continue to rest on the assumption that ES-knowledge is only made available to decision-makers through scientific documentation. As a result, scholars and decision-makers fail to account for the role of knowledge pluralism as a core element of recognitional justice, and a key enabling factor for meaningful consideration of the plural values linked to cultural benefits of ES. In this paper, we contribute to a pluralist theory of cultural-benefits-knowledge, and ES-knowledge more broadly. Using a critical interpretive synthesis of environmental management literature, we conceptualize a wider range of knowledge forms that convey cultural benefits, based on the knowledge-as-practice concept in addition to the knowledge-as-product concept more familiar to Western actors. As part of the synthesis, we explore when and how diverse forms of cultural-benefits-knowledge intersect with decision-making processes, and the value aspects and categories of cultural benefits most frequently conveyed by each form of knowledge. Our synthesizing argument offers a critique of the concept of “ES-knowledge-use,” proposing a shift in focus toward “learning opportunities” that exist across phases of decision-making. We demonstrate that attention to a greater diversity of knowledge forms (knowledge pluralism), and a fuller spectrum of opportunities to integrate them (learning opportunities) can support more meaningful consideration of the plural values associated with cultural benefits of ES (value pluralism). In combination, attention to knowledge pluralism and value pluralism can help bring the ES approach into alignment with environmental justice through the recognition and legitimization of multiple identities, well-beings, and human-nature relationships, as reflected in meaningful consideration of the diverse cultural benefits of ES.

Ecosystem Services↗
USGS2005

Field occurrences of liquefaction-induced features: A primer for engineering geologic analysis of paleoseismic shaking

Discussed in this paper are the factors that control the typical manifestations of liquefaction that are found in continental field settings. The factors are given mainly in terms of the local geologic field situation and the geotechnical properties there. A meaningful interpretation of liquefaction-based data for quantitative analysis of paleoseismic shaking requires understanding of both geologic and geotechnical roles in the mode of ground failure at a specific site. Recommendations are made for the size of the field area that must be searched for liquefaction effects, in order to develop adequate data for engineering geologic/geotechnical analyses of paleoseismicity. The areal extent must be based on an appreciation that the tectonic situation can cause seismically induced liquefaction effects to form in some locales, but not in others nearby, even for a strong earthquake in the region. Our guidelines for the conduct of the field search and preliminary analysis of the data relate to three issues for which liquefaction features are especially useful in answering: Has there been strong Holocene/latest Pleistocene shaking in the region? Where was the tectonic source? And what was the strength of shaking? Understanding of the various factors that control the manifestations of liquefaction effects, which we present in this paper, is essential for developing credible answers to these questions. ?? 2004 Elsvier B.V. All rights reserved.

Engineering Geology↗
USGS2008

Using the Model Coupling Toolkit to couple earth system models

Continued advances in computational resources are providing the opportunity to operate more sophisticated numerical models. Additionally, there is an increasing demand for multidisciplinary studies that include interactions between different physical processes. Therefore there is a strong desire to develop coupled modeling systems that utilize existing models and allow efficient data exchange and model control. The basic system would entail model "1" running on "M" processors and model "2" running on "N" processors, with efficient exchange of model fields at predetermined synchronization intervals. Here we demonstrate two coupled systems: the coupling of the ocean circulation model Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) to the surface wave model Simulating WAves Nearshore (SWAN), and the coupling of ROMS to the atmospheric model Coupled Ocean Atmosphere Prediction System (COAMPS). Both coupled systems use the Model Coupling Toolkit (MCT) as a mechanism for operation control and inter-model distributed memory transfer of model variables. In this paper we describe requirements and other options for model coupling, explain the MCT library, ROMS, SWAN and COAMPS models, methods for grid decomposition and sparse matrix interpolation, and provide an example from each coupled system. Methods presented in this paper are clearly applicable for coupling of other types of models. ?? 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Environmental Modelling and Software↗
USGS2016

Modelling with stakeholders - Next generation

This paper updates and builds on ‘Modelling with Stakeholders’ Voinov and Bousquet, 2010 which demonstrated the importance of, and demand for, stakeholder participation in resource and environmental modelling. This position paper returns to the concepts of that publication and reviews the progress made since 2010. A new development is the wide introduction and acceptance of social media and web applications, which dramatically changes the context and scale of stakeholder interactions and participation. Technology advances make it easier to incorporate information in interactive formats via visualization and games to augment participatory experiences. Citizens as stakeholders are increasingly demanding to be engaged in planning decisions that affect them and their communities, at scales from local to global. How people interact with and access models and data is rapidly evolving. In turn, this requires changes in how models are built, packaged, and disseminated: citizens are less in awe of experts and external authorities, and they are increasingly aware of their own capabilities to provide inputs to planning processes, including models. The continued acceleration of environmental degradation and natural resource depletion accompanies these societal changes, even as there is a growing acceptance of the need to transition to alternative, possibly very different, life styles. Substantive transitions cannot occur without significant changes in human behaviour and perceptions. The important and diverse roles that models can play in guiding human behaviour, and in disseminating and increasing societal knowledge, are a feature of stakeholder processes today.

Environmental Modelling and Software↗
USGS2019

Effective modeling for Integrated Water Resource Management: A guide to contextual practices by phases and steps and future opportunities

The effectiveness of Integrated Water Resource Management (IWRM) modeling hinges on the quality of practices employed through the process, starting from early problem definition all the way through to using the model in a way that serves its intended purpose. The adoption and implementation of effective modeling practices need to be guided by a practical understanding of the variety of decisions that modelers make, and the information considered in making these choices. There is still limited documented knowledge on the modeling workflow , and the role of contextual factors in determining this workflow and which practices to employ. This paper attempts to contribute to this knowledge gap by providing systematic guidance of the modeling practices through the phases (Planning, Development, Application, and Perpetuation) and steps that comprise the modeling process, positing questions that should be addressed. Practice-focused guidance helps explain the detailed process of conducting IWRM modeling, including the role of contextual factors in shaping practices. We draw on findings from literature and the authors’ collective experience to articulate what and how contextual factors play out in employing those practices. In order to accelerate our learning about how to improve IWRM modeling, the paper concludes with five key areas for future practice-related research: knowledge sharing, overcoming data limitations, informed stakeholder involvement, social equity and uncertainty management.

Environmental Modelling & Software↗
USGS2006

The global lambda visualization facility: An international ultra-high-definition wide-area visualization collaboratory

The research outlined in this paper marks an initial global cooperative effort between visualization and collaboration researchers to build a persistent virtual visualization facility linked by ultra-high-speed optical networks. The goal is to enable the comprehensive and synergistic research and development of the necessary hardware, software and interaction techniques to realize the next generation of end-user tools for scientists to collaborate on the global Lambda Grid. This paper outlines some of the visualization research projects that were demonstrated at the iGrid 2005 workshop in San Diego, California.

Future Generation Computer Systems↗
USGS2024

Strengths and opportunities in gopher tortoise population modeling: Reply to Loope et al.

We read the letter written by Loope et al. (2024) that evaluated the predictive population model for gopher tortoises from our previous paper ( Folt et al., 2022 ), and, despite criticism raised, we contend that our effort remains a valuable contribution. In our previous paper, we performed an unprecedented and exhaustive review of gopher tortoise population demography, which synthesized a large volume of literature about the current state of knowledge on gopher tortoise population dynamics and factors that influence demographic rates, including anthropogenic threats ( Folt et al., 2022 ). We then built a predictive population model that examined the relative influence of multiple anthropogenic stressors on tortoise populations into the future, while accounting for important geographic variation ( Folt et al., 2022 ).

Global Ecology and Conservation↗
USGS2011

Preface: Multiscale feedbacks in ecogeomorphology

Geomorphic systems are known to exhibit nonlinear responses to physical–biological feedbacks (Thornes, 1985; Baas, 2002; Reinhardt et al., 2010). These responses make understanding and/or predicting system response to change highly challenging. With growing concerns over ecosystem health, a pressing need exists for research that tries to elucidate these feedbacks (Jerolmack, 2008; Darby, 2010; National Research Council, 2010). A session was convened at the Fall 2008 meeting of the American Geophysical Union (AGU) to provide an outlet for some of this truly interdisciplinary and original research, which is central to understanding geomorphic and ecological dynamics. The session attracted over 39 contributions, which were divided into two well-attended oral sessions and a very busy poster session. This special issue presents new research from the AGU session, which highlights clear physical–biological feedbacks. The aim is to bring together contrasting perspectives on biological and geomorphic feedbacks in a diversity of physiographic settings, ranging from wetlands and estuaries, through rivers, to uplands. These papers highlight biological and physical feedbacks which involve the modulation or amplification of geomorphic processes. These papers will be of interest to a core geomorphology audience, and should also draw attention from the fields of ecohydraulics, hydroecology, ecohydrology, ecomorphology, biogeochemistry and biogeography, and biogeomorphology as well as the more traditional fields of hydrology, ecology and biology. In this preface to the special issue, we a) review past contributions to the emerging field of ecogeomorphology and related disciplines, b) provide some context for how this topical special issue came to fruition, and c) summarize the contributions to this special issue.

Geomorphology↗
USGS2012

The influence of upper-crust lithology on topographic development in the central Coast Ranges of California

A fundamental geological tenet is that as landscapes evolve over graded to geologic time, geologic structures control patterns of topographic distribution in mountainous areas such that terrain underlain by competent rock will be higher than terrain underlain by incompetent rock. This paper shows that in active orogens where markedly weak and markedly strong rocks are juxtaposed along contacts that parallel regional structures, relatively high topography can form where strain is localized in the weak rock. Such a relationship is illustrated by the topography of the central Coast Ranges between the Pacific coastline and the San Andreas fault zone (SAFZ), and along the length of the Gabilan Mesa (the “Gabilan Mesa segment” of the central Coast Ranges). Within the Gabilan Mesa segment, the granitic upper crust of the Salinian terrane is in contact with the accretionary-prism mélange upper crust of the Nacimiento terrane along the inactive Nacimiento fault zone. A prominent topographic lineament is present along most of this lithologic boundary, approximately 50 to 65 km southwest of the SAFZ, with the higher topography formed in the mélange on the southwest side of the Nacimiento fault. This paper investigates factors influencing the pattern of topographic development in the Gabilan Mesa segment of the central Coast Ranges by correlating shortening magnitude with the upper-crust compositions of the Salinian and Nacimiento terranes. The fluvial geomorphology of two valleys in the Gabilan Mesa, which is within the Salinian terrane, and alluvial geochronology based on optically-stimulated luminescence (OSL) age estimates, reveal that the magnitude of shortening accommodated by down-to-the-southwest tilting of the mesa since 400 ka is less than 1 to 2 m. Our results, combined with those of previous studies, indicate that at least 63% to 78% of late-Cenozoic, northeast–southwest directed, upper-crustal shortening across the Gabilan Mesa segment has been accommodated within the Nacimiento terrane. This is significant because perpendicular to orogenic strike the Nacimiento terrane constitutes less than ¼ of the distance between the coast and the SAFZ, and the other ¾ (or greater) of the distance between the coast and the SAFZ is underlain by the granitic upper crust of the Salinian terrane. We propose that strain and mountain building are localized within the Nacimiento terrane because it consists predominantly of the relatively weak Franciscan Complex mélange, and because the upper crust of the Salinian terrane is composed of relatively strong granitic rocks. Our hypothesis is supported by the distribution of post-seismic surface uplift associated with the 2003, 6.5 M W San Simeon earthquake, which mimics the topography of the southwestern part of the Gabilan Mesa segment of the central Coast Ranges.

California↗
USGS2015

Trends in publications in fluvial geomorphology over two decades: A truly new era in the discipline owing to recent technological revolution?

Trends in the field of fluvial geomorphology have been reviewed by a number of authors, who have emphasized the dramatic change occuring in the field in the last two decades of the twentieth century, largely as a result of technological advances. Nevertheless, no prior authors have systematically compiled data on publications in fluvial geomorphology over a long period and statistically analyzed the resulting data set. In this contribution we present a quantitative analysis of fluvial geomorphology papers published in the twenty-two-year period 1987–2009 in five journals of the discipline with a more specific focus on Geomorphology and Earth Surface Processes and Landforms ( ESPL ), identifying authorships, geographic origin of authors, and spatial and temporal scales covered. We also documented the tools employed, demonstrating the transformation of the field with the emergence of new tools over this period, and conducted a cluster to highlight links between tools and a set of factors (country of author's origin, journals, time, and spatial and temporal scales). Of the 1717 papers published in the five journals during this period, the results showed an increased diversity in the nationality of the first author, mainly when dealing with present time scale, and channel feature. Our data show a significant change in methods used in the field as a result of the increase in data availability and new sources of information from remote sensing (ground, airborne and, satellite). Clearly, a new era in knowledge production is observed since 2000, showing the emergence of a second period of active quantification and an internationalization of the fields.

Geomorphology↗
USGS2019

Uncertainty and risk evaluation during the exploration stage of geothermal development: A review

Quantifying and representing uncertainty for geothermal systems is often ignored, in practice, during the exploration phase of a geothermal development project. We propose that this occurs potentially because the task seems so formidable. The primary goal of this paper is to initiate a dialogue within the geothermal community about: which geothermal uncertainties should receive the most attention and which uncertainty analysis methods could provide the greatest benefit for the advancement of the geothermal energy industry. Specifically, in this paper, we review uncertainty quantification techniques that are applicable to geothermal exploration. In general, uncertainty associated with data acquisition/processing (i.e., objective uncertainty) is small compared to the uncertainty in interpretational space (i.e., subjective uncertainty) that lies between data points where extrapolation is required. Therefore, it is important to classify, assess, and quantify uncertainty to help select strategies to reduce uncertainty and to better gauge the impact that separate uncertainties have on the overall likelihood of project success. The discipline of geostatistics provides multiple quantitative methods for producing stochastic models which adhere to measured data and spatial correlation. The petroleum industry has successfully used both geostatistics and decision analysis methods to combine diverse and multiple types of uncertainties. We argue that instead of one single and final interpretation of the geothermal system, numerous interpretations may be more indicative of the possible subsurface scenarios, and these different scenarios can be evaluated using decision analyses and value of information methodologies. Finally, we recommend that the potential power generation of a geothermal reservoir should be grounded in the geologic data and modeling for a specific field and their estimated uncertainties.

Geothermics↗
USGS2023

Towards a better future for biodiversity and people: Modelling Nature Futures

The Nature Futures Framework (NFF) is a heuristic tool for co-creating positive futures for nature and people. It seeks to open up a diversity of futures through mainly three value perspectives on nature – Nature for Nature, Nature for Society, and Nature as Culture. This paper describes how the NFF can be applied in modelling to support decision-making. First, we describe key considerations for the NFF in developing qualitative and quantitative scenarios: i) multiple value perspectives on nature as a state space where pathways improving nature toward a frontier can be represented, ii) mutually reinforcing key feedbacks of social-ecological systems that are important for nature conservation and human wellbeing, iii) indicators of multiple knowledge systems describing the evolution of complex social-ecological dynamics. We then present three approaches to modelling Nature Futures scenarios in the review, screening, and design phases of policy processes. This paper seeks to facilitate the integration of relational values of nature in models and strengthen modelled linkages across biodiversity, nature’s contributions to people, and quality of life.

Global Environmental Change↗
USGS2004

The social context of carbon sequestration: considerations from a multi-scale environmental history of the Old Peanut Basin of Senegal

This paper presents the results of a multi-scale investigation of environmental change in the Old Peanut Basin of Senegal throughout the 20th century. Based on historical accounts, ethnographies, aerial photos, satellite images, field and household surveys as well as various participatory research activities with farmers in selected villages, the study attempts to make explicit layered scales of analysis, both temporally and spatially. It shows that, despite some general trends of resource degradation in the Old Peanut Basin, local farming systems have embarked on different pathways of change to adapt to their evolving environment. It also illustrates that high diversity with respect to soil fertility management exists at the farm and household level. Finally, the paper proposes a farmer-oriented approach to carbon sequestration in order to integrate recommended technical options more efficiently into the complex and dynamic livelihoods of smallholders in dryland environments. This approach includes pathway-specific land use and management options at the level of farming systems and, at the level of individual households, a basket of possible practices from which farmers can choose depending on their multiple needs, capacities, and adaptive strategies to cope with risk and uncertainty.

Journal of Arid Environments↗
USGS2008

Multiyear riparian evapotranspiration and groundwater use for a semiarid watershed

Riparian evapotranspiration (ET) is a major component of the surface and subsurface water balance for many semiarid watersheds. Measurement or model-based estimates of ET are often made on a local scale, but spatially distributed estimates are needed to determine ET over catchments. In this paper, we document the ET that was quantified over 3 years using eddy covariance for three riparian ecosystems along the Upper San Pedro River of southeastern Arizona, USA, and we use a water balance equation to determine annual groundwater use. Riparian evapotranspiration and groundwater use for the watershed were then determined by using a calibrated, empirical model that uses 16-day, 250-1000 m remote-sensing products for the years of 2001-2005. The inputs for the model were derived entirely from the NASA MODIS sensor and consisted of the Enhanced Vegetation Index and land surface temperature. The scaling model was validated using subsets of the entire dataset (omitting different sites or years) and its capable performance for well-watered sites (MAD=0.32 mm day-1, R2=0.93) gave us confidence in using it to determine ET over the watershed. Three years of eddy covariance data for the riparian sites reveal that ET and groundwater use increased as woody plant density increased. Groundwater use was less variable at the woodland site, which had the greatest density of phreatophytes. Annual riparian groundwater use within the watershed was nearly constant over the study period despite an on-going drought. For the San Pedro alone, the amounts determined in this paper are within the range of most recently reported values that were derived using an entirely different approach. However, because of our larger estimates for groundwater use for the main tributary of the San Pedro, the watershed totals were higher. The approach presented here can provide riparian ET and groundwater use amounts that reflect real natural variability in phreatophyte withdrawals and improve the accuracy of a watershed's water budget. ?? 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Journal of Arid Environments↗
USGS2013

Some thoughts on the factors that controlled prehistoric maize production in the American Southwest with application to southwestern Colorado

In this paper, we present a model of prehistoric southwestern Colorado maize productivity. The model is based on a tree-ring reconstruction of water-year precipitation for Mesa Verde for the period A.D. 480 to 2011. Correlation of historic Mesa Verde precipitation with historic precipitation at 11 other weather stations enabled the construction of an elevation-dependent precipitation function. Prehistoric water-year precipitation values for Mesa Verde together with the elevation-dependent precipitation function allowed construction of the elevation of southwest Colorado precipitation contours for each year since A.D. 480, including the 30-cm contour, which represents the minimum amount of precipitation necessary for the production of maize and the 50-cm contour, which represents the optimum amount of precipitation necessary for the production of maize. In this paper, calculations of prehistoric maize productivity and field life for any specific elevation are also demonstrated. These calculations were performed using organic nitrogen measurements made on seven southwestern Colorado soil groups together with values of reconstructed water-year precipitation and estimations of the organic nitrogen mineralization rate.

Colorado↗