Geology Reports⌕ Search

SEARCH · Geology Reports

Results for “Climate”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 757 records · Page 42Linked to original sources
USGS2018

Hypotheses from recent assessments of climate impacts to biodiversity and ecosystems in the United States

Climate change poses multiple threats to biodiversity, and has already caused demonstrable impacts. We summarize key results from a recent national assessment of observed climate change impacts to terrestrial, marine, and freshwater ecosystems in the United States, and place results in the context of commonly articulated hypotheses about ecosystem response to climate change for global implications. Specific impacts we consider include: range shifts; phenological shifts; phenotypic changes; primary production changes; biological invasions; and novel communities. Significant effort has been made recently to incorporate adaptation measures into land and water management at both national and international scales, but the scale of impacts and associated uncertainties pose challenges to existing management institutions. Using commonly articulated hypotheses about climate change, biodiversity, and ecosystem response can provide context for informed decisions at multiple scales and can help to provide a clearer understanding of the ecological and mechanistic linkages between climate change and biodiversity.

Book chapter↗
USGS2015

Climate change

Climate change (including climate variability) refers to regional or global changes in mean climate state or in patterns of climate variability over decades to millions of years often identified using statistical methods and sometimes referred to as changes in long-term weather conditions (IPCC, 2012). Climate is influenced by changes in continent-ocean configurations due to plate tectonic processes, variations in Earth’s orbit, axial tilt and precession, atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations, solar variability, volcanism, internal variability resulting from interactions between the atmosphere, oceans and ice (glaciers, small ice caps, ice sheets, and sea ice), and anthropogenic activities such as greenhouse gas emissions and land use and their effects on carbon cycling.

Book chapter↗
USGS2012

The Adaptation for Conservation Targets (ACT) Framework: A tool for incorporating climate change into natural resource management

As natural resource management agencies and conservation organizations seek guidance on responding to climate change, myriad potential actions and strategies have been proposed for increasing the long-term viability of some attributes of natural systems. Managers need practical tools for selecting among these actions and strategies to develop a tailored management approach for specific targets at a given location. We developed and present one such tool, the participatory Adaptation for Conservation Targets (ACT) framework, which considers the effects of climate change in the development of management actions for particular species, ecosystems and ecological functions. Our framework is based on the premise that effective adaptation of management to climate change can rely on local knowledge of an ecosystem and does not necessarily require detailed projections of climate change or its effects. We illustrate the ACT framework by applying it to an ecological function in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (Montana, Wyoming, and Idaho, USA)—water flows in the upper Yellowstone River. We suggest that the ACT framework is a practical tool for initiating adaptation planning, and for generating and communicating specific management interventions given an increasingly altered, yet uncertain, climate.

Environmental Management↗
USGS2026

Nest site and habitat changes over 15 years in a predicted climate refugium in Beluga, AK, USA, have a positive impact on Hudsonian godwit (Limosa haemastica) nest survival

Climate change is transforming the Arctic and sub-Arctic at a pace that threatens many taxa with population declines and extinction. However, some habitats–such as muskeg bogs–can serve as climatic refugia and lessen the effects of a changing climate on the species that rely on them. Hudsonian Godwits ( Limosa haemastica ) are a species of migratory shorebird that utilizes the muskeg bogs of Alaska and Canada to breed. Our study focused on a muskeg bog in Beluga, Alaska, USA to see if it had changed from 2009 to 2023, if the availability of Godwit nests sites in the bogs changed in concert, and if Godwit nest survival was affected by any of these changes. We found that, overall, the bog dried and became more vegetated, with the proportional cover of graminoids, shrubs, and forbs all increasing during our study. Godwit nest sites also changed, with the proportion of shrubs and graminoids around nests increasing over time. Nonetheless, these changes did not negatively impact Godwit nest survival. Instead, nest survival increased ~ 22% during our study period, and we observed no decline in the number of potential nests sites available to Godwits. Taken together, these results suggest that while muskeg bogs are changing, they are also currently acting as climate refugia for Godwits. However, it is unclear for how long muskeg bogs can continue to buffer Godwits and other species from the effects of climate change.

Alaska↗
USGS2014

Understanding how lake populations of arctic char are structured and function with special consideration of the potential effects of climate change: A multi-faceted approach.

Size dimorphism in fish populations, both its causes and consequences, has been an area of considerable focus; however, uncertainty remains whether size dimorphism is dynamic or stabilizing and about the role of exogenous factors. Here, we explored patterns among empirical vital rates, population structure, abundance and trend, and predicted the effects of climate change on populations of arctic char ( Salvelinus alpinus) in two lakes. Both populations cycle dramatically between dominance by small (≤300 mm) and large (>300 mm) char. Apparent survival (Φ) and specific growth rates (SGR) were relatively high (40–96 %; SGR range 0.03–1.5 %) and comparable to those of conspecifics at lower latitudes. Climate change scenarios mimicked observed patterns of warming and resulted in temperatures closer to optimal for char growth (15.15 °C) and a longer growing season. An increase in consumption rates (28–34 %) under climate change scenarios led to much greater growth rates (23–34 %). Higher growth rates predicted under climate change resulted in an even greater predicted amplitude of cycles in population structure as well as an increase in reproductive output ( R o ) and decrease in generation time ( G o ). Collectively, these results indicate arctic char populations (not just individuals) are extremely sensitive to small changes in the number of ice-free days. We hypothesize years with a longer growing season, predicted to occur more often under climate change, produce elevated growth rates of small char and act in a manner similar to a “resource pulse,” allowing a sub-set of small char to “break through,” thus setting the cycle in population structure.

Oecologia↗
USGS2015

Detecting mismatches of bird migration stopover and tree phenology in response to changing climate

Migratory birds exploit seasonal variation in resources across latitudes, timing migration to coincide with the phenology of food at stopover sites. Differential responses to climate in phenology across trophic levels can result in phenological mismatch; however, detecting mismatch is sensitive to methodology. We examined patterns of migrant abundance and tree flowering, phenological mismatch, and the influence of climate during spring migration from 2009 to 2011 across five habitat types of the Madrean Sky Islands in southeastern Arizona, USA. We used two metrics to assess phenological mismatch: synchrony and overlap. We also examined whether phenological overlap declined with increasing difference in mean event date of phenophases. Migrant abundance and tree flowering generally increased with minimum spring temperature but depended on annual climate by habitat interactions. Migrant abundance was lowest and flowering was highest under cold, snowy conditions in high elevation montane conifer habitat while bird abundance was greatest and flowering was lowest in low elevation riparian habitat under the driest conditions. Phenological synchrony and overlap were unique and complementary metrics and should both be used when assessing mismatch. Overlap declined due to asynchronous phenologies but also due to reduced migrant abundance or flowering when synchrony was actually maintained. Overlap declined with increasing difference in event date and this trend was strongest in riparian areas. Montane habitat specialists may be at greatest risk of mismatch while riparian habitat could provide refugia during dry years for phenotypically plastic species. Interannual climate patterns that we observed match climate change projections for the arid southwest, altering stopover habitat condition.

Arizona↗
USGS2016

Annual grass invasion in sagebrush-steppe: The relative importance of climate, soil properties and biotic interactions

The invasion by winter-annual grasses (AGs) such as Bromus tectorum into sagebrush steppe throughout the western USA is a classic example of a biological invasion with multiple, interacting climate, soil and biotic factors driving the invasion, although few studies have examined all components together. Across a 6000-km 2 area of the northern Great Basin, we conducted a field assessment of 100 climate, soil, and biotic (functional group abundances, diversity) factors at each of 90 sites that spanned an invasion gradient ranging from 0 to 100 % AG cover. We first determined which biotic and abiotic factors had the strongest correlative relationships with AGs and each resident functional group. We then used regression and structural equation modeling to explore how multiple ecological factors interact to influence AG abundance. Among biotic interactions, we observed negative relationships between AGs and biodiversity, perennial grass cover, resident species richness, biological soil crust cover and shrub density, whereas perennial and annual forb cover, tree cover and soil microbial biomass had no direct linkage to AG. Among abiotic factors, AG cover was strongly related to climate (increasing cover with increasing temperature and aridity), but had weak relationships with soil factors. Our structural equation model showed negative effects of perennial grasses and biodiversity on AG cover while integrating the negative effects of warmer climate and positive influence of belowground processes on resident functional groups. Our findings illustrate the relative importance of biotic interactions and climate on invasive abundance, while soil properties appear to have stronger relationships with resident biota than with invasives.

Oregon↗
USGS2011

Divergence in forest-type response to climate and weather: Evidence for regional links between forest-type evenness and net primary productivity

Climate change is altering long-term climatic conditions and increasing the magnitude of weather fluctuations. Assessing the consequences of these changes for terrestrial ecosystems requires understanding how different vegetation types respond to climate and weather. This study examined 20 years of regional-scale remotely sensed net primary productivity (NPP) in forests of the northern Lake States to identify how the relationship between NPP and climate or weather differ among forest types, and if NPP patterns are influenced by landscape-scale evenness of forest-type abundance. These results underscore the positive relationship between temperature and NPP. Importantly, these results indicate significant differences among broadly defined forest types in response to both climate and weather. Essentially all weather variables that were strongly related to annual NPP displayed significant differences among forest types, suggesting complementarity in response to environmental fluctuations. In addition, this study found that forest-type evenness (within 8 × 8 km 2 areas) is positively related to long-term NPP mean and negatively related to NPP variability, suggesting that NPP in pixels with greater forest-type evenness is both higher and more stable through time. This is landscape- to subcontinental-scale evidence of a relationship between primary productivity and one measure of biological diversity. These results imply that anthropogenic or natural processes that influence the proportional abundance of forest types within landscapes may influence long-term productivity patterns.

Ecosystems↗
USGS2014

Abrupt climate-independent fire regime changes

Wildfires have played a determining role in distribution, composition and structure of many ecosystems worldwide and climatic changes are widely considered to be a major driver of future fire regime changes. However, forecasting future climatic change induced impacts on fire regimes will require a clearer understanding of other drivers of abrupt fire regime changes. Here, we focus on evidence from different environmental and temporal settings of fire regimes changes that are not directly attributed to climatic changes. We review key cases of these abrupt fire regime changes at different spatial and temporal scales, including those directly driven (i) by fauna, (ii) by invasive plant species, and (iii) by socio-economic and policy changes. All these drivers might generate non-linear effects of landscape changes in fuel structure; that is, they generate fuel changes that can cross thresholds of landscape continuity, and thus drastically change fire activity. Although climatic changes might contribute to some of these changes, there are also many instances that are not primarily linked to climatic shifts. Understanding the mechanism driving fire regime changes should contribute to our ability to better assess future fire regimes.

Ecosystems↗
USGS2025

Understanding and managing introduction pathways into protected areas in a changing climate

The Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework 2030 calls for the conservation of 30% of the world’s ecosystems, focusing on protecting areas vital to biodiversity, identifying and managing invasive species introduction pathways, and minimizing the impacts of climate change on biodiversity. While protected areas (PAs) have historically limited the introduction, establishment, and spread of non-native species, climate change is likely to increase their susceptibility to invasion. Yet we know little about how pathways may shift in the future, making it difficult for managers to plan appropriately. This paper explores how climate change may affect primary and secondary pathways of introduction and presents an adaptive management approach to avoid, minimize, and mitigate impacts. Climate change has influenced introduction pathways by modifying human behaviors (e.g., forced migration and shifting travel and vacation destinations), and by altering transportation routes, natural dispersal mechanisms, and the environmental conditions along these pathways and in donor and receiver regions. These changes increase the risk of non-native species introductions and their subsequent spread within PAs. Implementing climate-smart adaptive biosecurity, an iterative process that includes the incorporation of new technologies and perspectives, will become increasingly important for invasive species prevention and management of PAs as it provides flexibility in management response and maximizes positive outcomes when resources are limited.

Biological Invasions↗
USGS2024

Salt marsh habitats and diamondback terrapins in a rapidly changing climate: A review

The impacts associated with global climate change (e.g., sea-level rise, tropical storms, and warming temperatures) are expected to alter predator–prey interactions, foundation species, and plant community structure in coastal ecosystems. While the complex dynamics of these habitats have been examined under future climate predictions, few ecosystem models incorporate influences from fauna, such as the diamondback terrapin, the only estuarine turtle native to North America. This review examines the impacts of climate change on diamondback terrapins ( Malaclemys terrapin ) and the role that terrapins play as higher trophic level predators and keystone species in driving the dynamics of these ecosystems. We also review the potential implications of changes to terrapin populations on coastal ecosystems as a conservation challenge and suggest solutions to advance our understanding of those complex systems. Because of their role as a keystone and area-sensitive species that helps maintain healthy coastal habitats by foraging on herbivorous periwinkle snails, alterations to terrapin life history from climate change are expected, which could have significant impacts to the conservation of coastal habitats. Life history alterations could occur due to individual stressors, such as warming temperatures altering terrapin sex ratios. However, because of the complexity of these coastal systems, these stressors could also act additively or synergistically. Inclusion of faunal taxa such as the diamondback terrapin in modeling efforts examining climate change impacts to coastal ecosystems would better represent the complexity of these habitats thereby providing a more comprehensive evaluation of the entire ecosystem, resulting in more effective conservation strategies.

Estuaries and Coasts↗
USGS2016

Implications of climate change for wetland-dependent birds in the Prairie Pothole Region

The habitats and food resources required to support breeding and migrant birds dependent on North American prairie wetlands are threatened by impending climate change. The North American Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) hosts nearly 120 species of wetland-dependent birds representing 21 families. Strategic management requires knowledge of avian habitat requirements and assessment of species most vulnerable to future threats. We applied bioclimatic species distribution models (SDMs) to project range changes of 29 wetland-dependent bird species using ensemble modeling techniques, a large number of General Circulation Models (GCMs), and hydrological climate covariates. For the U.S. PPR, mean projected range change, expressed as a proportion of currently occupied range, was −0.31 (± 0.22 SD; range − 0.75 to 0.16), and all but two species were projected to lose habitat. Species associated with deeper water were expected to experience smaller negative impacts of climate change. The magnitude of climate change impacts was somewhat lower in this study than earlier efforts most likely due to use of different focal species, varying methodologies, different modeling decisions, or alternative GCMs. Quantification of the projected species-specific impacts of climate change using species distribution modeling offers valuable information for vulnerability assessments within the conservation planning process.

Prairie Pothole Region↗
USGS2024

Modeling the responses of blue carbon fluxes in Mississippi River Deltaic Plain brackish marshes to climate change induced hydrologic conditions

Carbon fluxes in tidal brackish marshes play a critical role in determining coastal wetland carbon sequestration and storage, thus affecting carbon crediting of coastal wetland restoration. In this study, a process-driven wetland biogeochemistry model, Wetland Carbon Assessment Tool DeNitrification-DeComposition was applied to nine brackish marsh sites in Mississippi River (MR) Deltaic Plain to examine the responses of gross primary productivity (GPP), ecosystem respiration (ER), net ecosystem exchange (NEE), and emissions of methane (CH 4 ) and nitrous oxide (N 2 O) to climate change. Simulations of a normal hydrologic year (2013), dry year (2011) and wet year (2021), and a hypothetical sea level rise (SLR) case were conducted as climate change scenarios. These climate change scenarios were determined by the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) for the Northeast Division of Coastal Louisiana during 2001–2021. Model results showed that GPP, ER, NEE, CH 4 , and N 2 O vary with site, and these brackish marshes lost carbon (net CO 2 emission) due to large reduction in primary productivity under the climate scenarios, as well as even during the normal hydrologic year. Average cross-site NEE were 148, 140 and 132 g C m −2 yr −1 in the dry, wet, and normal years (all net loss of wetland C). Under the hypothetical SLR, NEE were reduced by -25% compared to the normal year, but GPP and NPP were declined by -40% and -70%, respectively. These results suggest that climate change induced changes in soil salinity and water table depth will exacerbate carbon loss from tidal brackish marshes.

Louisiana↗
USGS2017

Paleohydrologic regimes in the southwestern Great Basin, 0-3.2 my ago, compared with other long records of "gobal" climate

Nine distinct paleohydrologic regimes in the southwestern Great Basin over the last 3.2 my are recorded by the lacustrine deposits in KM-3, a 930-m core from Searles Lake, California. These are characterized as being "wet," "intermediate," or "dry" (like today). Excepting the present incomplete regime, each lasted 0.12 to 0.76 my. Major regime changes 0.01, 0.13, 0.6, and 2.5 my ago appear to coincide with recognized changes in global ice-sheet histories as represented by 18O and other records from marine sediments, but comparable changes 0.3, 1.0, 1.3, and 2.0 my ago do not appear to coincide closely with comparable perturbations in ice-sheet histories. However, all regime boundaries (during the last 1.75 my) coincide closely in time with changes in sea-surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic, and many coincide with other deep-sea and continental paleoclimatic boundaries.The average duration of these paleohydrologic regimes was about 0.4 my (standard deviation, 0.2 my or less, depending on assumptions), and it is suggested that the regime boundaries reflect times of change in global(?) sea-surface temperatures, possibly controlled in part by the Earth's 413,000-yr orbital eccentricity cycle. During the wettest and driest regimes in the Searles Lake area, lake levels were not sufficiently affected by the 23,000-, to 42,000-, or 100,000-yr climate cycles related to high-latitude ice-sheet fluctuations to produce changes in the lacustrine sediment character. During intermediate regimes, however, when lacustrine sedimentation in this area was more sensitive to climate, the sediments, in KM-3, record lake fluctuations with average frequencies near those of the ice sheets. This seems to indicate that the high-latitude ice-sheet fluctuations caused local climatic perturbations but did not dominate the hydrologic component of climate in this area. Other lacustrine deposits in the southwestern Great Basin of California and Nevada have ages comparable in part to those of the wet to intermediate regimes indicated by KM-3, and they may all be products of finite periods when lake expansion, alluvial fan growth, increased spring discharge, and fluvial deposition were promoted in this area by widespread wet climates. Glacier expansion in the Sierra Nevada may also have been primarily an expression of, and in phase with, these wet regimes. ?? 1984.

Quaternary Research↗
USGS1991

Pliocene-climate history of the western United States derived from lacustrine ostracodes

Pliocene sediments from several sites in western North America contain ostracodes indicating deposition in lacustrine and wetland settings. The ostracodes offer a means of reconstructing the aquatic paleoenvironment. Because water temperature, chemistry, and lake volume are coupled to climate, reconstruction of these parameters provides a direct insight into Pliocene climate. The site ages were determined from tephrochronology, paleomagnetics, and associated mammals. The morphology of many ostracode species also provides direct information about the paleoenvironment in which they lived. During the Pliocene (about 3.5-2.5 Ma) some species have unusually ornate carapace morphology indicative of large geologically stable lakes, which must have required a stable climate to sustain them. North American Pliocene climate changed from a modern-like state 4.5-3.5 Ma to a period with greater precipitation and less evaporation than today, 3.5-2.5 Ma. This wetter period, inferred from the large geologically long-lived lakes, implies a stable atmospheric circulation pattern. The stable circulation pattern collapsed around 2.5 Ma and climate returned to a modern-like situation.

western United States↗
USGS2015

Climate, water use, and land surface transformation in an irrigation intensive watershed - streamflow responses from 1950 through 2010

Climatic variability and land surface change have a wide range of effects on streamflow and are often difficult to separate. We analyzed long-term records of climate, land use and land cover, and re-constructed the water budget based on precipitation, groundwater levels, and water use from 1950 through 2010 in the Cimarron–Skeleton watershed and a portion of the Cimarron–Eagle Chief watershed in Oklahoma, an irrigation-intensive agricultural watershed in the Southern Great Plains, USA. Our results show that intensive irrigation through alluvial aquifer withdrawal modifies climatic feedback and alters streamflow response to precipitation. Increase in consumptive water use was associated with decreases in annual streamflow, while returning croplands to non-irrigated grasslands was associated with increases in streamflow. Along with groundwater withdrawal, anthropogenic-induced factors and activities contributed nearly half to the observed variability of annual streamflow. Streamflow was more responsive to precipitation during the period of intensive irrigation between 1965 and 1984 than the period of relatively lower water use between 1985 and 2010. The Cimarron River is transitioning from a historically flashy river to one that is more stable with a lower frequency of both high and low flow pulses, a higher baseflow, and an increased median flow due in part to the return of cropland to grassland. These results demonstrated the interrelationship among climate, land use, groundwater withdrawal and streamflow regime and the potential to design agricultural production systems and adjust irrigation to mitigate impact of increasing climate variability on streamflow in irrigation intensive agricultural watershed.

Kansas, Oklahoma↗
USGS2018

Irrigated agriculture and future climate change effects on groundwater recharge, northern High Plains aquifer, USA

Understanding the controls of agriculture and climate change on recharge rates is critically important to develop appropriate sustainable management plans for groundwater resources and coupled irrigated agricultural systems. In this study, several physical (total potential ( ψ T ) time series) and chemical tracer and dating ( 3 H, Cl − , Br − , CFCs, SF 6 , and 3 H/ 3 He) methods were used to quantify diffuse recharge rates beneath two rangeland sites and irrigation recharge rates beneath two irrigated corn sites along an east-west (wet-dry) transect of the northern High Plains aquifer, Platte River Basin, central Nebraska. The field-based recharge estimates and historical climate were used to calibrate site-specific Hydrus-1D models, and irrigation requirements were estimated using the Crops Simulation Model (CROPSIM). Future model simulations were driven by an ensemble of 16 global climate models and two global warming scenarios to project a 2050 climate relative to the historical baseline 1990 climate, and simulate changes in precipitation, irrigation, evapotranspiration, and diffuse and irrigation recharge rates. Although results indicate statistical differences between the historical variables at the eastern and western sites and rangeland and irrigated sites, the low warming scenario (+1.0 °C) simulations indicate no statistical differences between 2050 and 1990. However, the high warming scenarios (+2.4 °C) indicate a 25% and 15% increase in median annual evapotranspiration and irrigation demand, and decreases in future diffuse recharge by 53% and 98% and irrigation recharge by 47% and 29% at the eastern and western sites, respectively. These results indicate an important threshold between the low and high warming scenarios that if exceeded could trigger a significant bidirectional shift in 2050 hydroclimatology and recharge gradients. The bidirectional shift is that future northern High Plains temperatures will resemble present central High Plains temperatures and future recharge rates in the east will resemble present recharge rates in the western part of the northern High Plains aquifer. The reductions in recharge rates could accelerate declining water levels if irrigation demand and other management strategies are not implemented. Findings here have important implications for future management of irrigation practices and to slow groundwater depletion in this important agricultural region.

Northern High Plains Aquifer↗
USGS2018

Slow and steady wins the race? Future climate and land use change leaves the imperiled Blanding's turtle (Emydoidea blandingii) behind

Climate change is accompanied by shifts in species distributions, as portions of current ranges become less suitable. Maintaining or improving landscape connectivity to facilitate species movements is a primary approach to mitigate the effects of climate change on biodiversity. However, it is not clear how ongoing changes in land use and climate may affect the existing connectivity of landscapes. We evaluated shifts in habitat suitability and connectivity for the imperiled Blanding's turtle ( Emydoidea blandingii ) in Wisconsin using species distribution modeling in combination with different future scenarios of both land use change and climate change for the 2050s. We found that climate change had significant effects on both habitat suitability and connectivity, however, there was little difference in the magnitude of effects among different economic scenarios. Under both our low- and high-CO 2 emissions scenarios, suitable habitat for the Blanding's turtle shifted northward. In the high-emissions scenario, almost no suitable habitat remained for Blanding's turtle in Wisconsin by the 2050s and there was up to a 100,000-fold increase in landscape resistance to turtle movement, suggesting the landscape essentially becomes impassable. Habitat loss and landscape resistance were exponentially greater in southern versus northern Wisconsin, indicating a strong trailing edge effect. Thus, populations at the southern edge of the range are likely to “fall behind” shifts in suitable habitat faster than northern populations. Given its limited dispersal capability, loss of suitable habitat may occur at a rate far faster than the Blanding's turtle can adjust to changing conditions via shifts in range.

Wisconsin↗