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USGS1995

Winter population trends of selected songbirds

Many studies have found significant changes, primarily declines, in populations of breeding birds throughout the United States. Most studies have focused on birds that migrate to the Neotropics for winter. Speculations about causes of observed declines have primarily implicated habitat fragmentation and loss (e.g. deforestation) in Central and South America. The National Audubon Society's Christmas Bird Counts (CBC), begun in the winter of 1900-01, provide the data needed to discern consistent population trends in birds wintering throughout the United States. For this study we used the CBC data to examine population trends of songbirds with ranges that apparently are limited by lower temperatures in the North. We chose these species to track populations of birds that could be in peril in the future. These birds potentially will be more quickly affected by changing climate than other birds, and we need baseline information on them to document possible consequences of global climatic change. The species that are indeed declining need to be monitored because the possible synergistic effects of declining populations and changing climate could result in local and even regional extinctions.

Book chapter↗

USGS1972

Trends in ground-water levels in Wisconsin, 1967-1971

This report supplements the Wisconsin Geological and Natural History Survey, Information Circular No.9, "Trends in Ground-Water Levels in Wisconsin through 1966". It describes, by hydrographs, the ground-water level trends in Wisconsin for the period 1967-1971. All current observation wells with more than three years of record are included; records of observation wells discontinued since 1967 and records of wells with less than three years of record are not included. Explanatory and interpretive material is in Circular 9.

Wisconsin↗

USGS2014

Disentangling the effects of climate and landscape change on bird population trends in the western U.S. and Canada

Changes in climate are often assumed result in changes to species’ ranges, with potential impacts on natural system functioning and ecosystem services. ‘Climate envelope models’, which rely on correlations between climate and species distributions, have been used to predict the future of biodiversity under these assumptions. However, other factors including land-cover, dispersal ability and interspecific competition and facilitation may play an important role in driving species distributions and population trends either alone or in combination with climate. In an ongoing project, we used long-term data on bird distributions and abundance to develop climate envelope and land-use models for 161 species in order to provide a multi-species test of the degree to which climate envelope versus land-use models are useful in predicting species distributions and population trends of birds in forest ecosystems of the western U.S. and Canada. Our results suggest that models describing associations between climatic variables and abundance patterns can be used for some species to predict changes through time, and that changes in climate have already driven shifts in the geographic patterns of abundance of bird populations in western North America. For other species, models using land-use variables including raw remote-sensing variables may provide the best predictions for abundance change. The results of this research showing the reliability of models across multiple species will aid managers in understanding which species are most vulnerable to changes from climate, land-use change and their interaction.

Final Report↗

USGS2015

Great Lakes prey fish populations: A cross-basin Overview of status and trends based on bottom trawl surveys, 1978-2014

The assessment of Great Lakes prey fish stocks have been conducted annually with bottom trawls since the 1970s by the Great Lakes Science Center, sometimes assisted by partner agencies. These stock assessments provide data on the status and trends of prey fish that are consumed by important commercial and recreational fishes. Although all these annual surveys are conducted using bottom trawls, they differ among the lakes in the proportion of the lake covered, seasonal timing, trawl gear used, and the manner in which the trawl is towed (across or along bottom contours). Because each assessment is unique, population indices were standardized to the highest value for a time series within each lake for the following prey species: Cisco (Coregonus artedi), Bloater (C. hoyi), Rainbow Smelt (Osmerus mordax), Alewife (Alosa pseudoharengus), and Round Goby (Neogobius melanostomus). In this report, standardized indices are presented in graphical form along with synopses to provide a short, informal cross-basin summary of the status and trends of principal prey fishes.

Report↗

USGS1997

Status, trends, and changes in freshwater inflows to bay systems in the Corpus Christi Bay National Estuary Program study area

This report presents the results of a study to quantify current (1983–93) mean freshwater inflows to the six bay systems (open water and wetlands) in the Corpus Christi Bay National Estuary Program study area, to test for historical temporal trends in inflows, and to quantify historical and projected changes in inflows. The report also addresses the adequacy of existing data to estimate freshwater inflows. The six bay systems are the St. Charles, Copano, Redfish, Nueces and Corpus Christi, upper Laguna Madre, and Baffin. Each bay system has one or more adjacent contributing watersheds, for a total of 13 watersheds for purposes of this study, that together comprise about 6,000 square miles. All freshwater runoff to each bay system except the Nueces and Corpus Christi originates in adjacent watersheds. Freshwater that enters the Nueces and Corpus Christi Bay system is a combination of water that originates in the adjacent contributing watersheds and water that originates in the large regional watershed of the Nueces River (greater Nueces River Basin) upstream of the adjacent contributing watersheds. The watershed simulation model Hydrologic Simulation Program—Fortran (HSPF) was used to generate simulated flow (runoff) from the 13 watersheds to the six bay systems because adequate gaged streamflow data from which to estimate freshwater inflows are not available; only about 23 percent of the adjacent contributing watershed area is gaged. The model was calibrated for the gaged parts of three watersheds—that is, selected input parameters (meteorologic and hydrologic properties and conditions) that control runoff were adjusted in a series of simulations until an adequate match between model-generated flows and a set (time series) of gaged flows was achieved. The primary model input is rainfall and evaporation data and the model output is a time series of runoff volumes. After calibration, simulations driven by daily rainfall for a 26-year period (1968–93) were done for the 13 watersheds to obtain runoff under current (1983–93), predevelopment (pre-1940 streamflow and pre-urbanization), and future (2010) land-use conditions for estimating freshwater inflows and for comparing runoff under the three land-use conditions; and to obtain time series of runoff from which to estimate time series of freshwater inflows for trend analysis.

Report↗

USGS2018

2017-2018 Palila abundance estimates and trend

The palila (Loxioides bailleui) population was surveyed annually from 1998–2018 on Mauna Kea Volcano to determine abundance, population trend, and spatial distribution. In the latest surveys, the 2017 population was estimated at 1,177−1,813 birds (point estimate: 1,461) and the 2018 population was estimated at 778−1,420 (point estimate: 1,051). Only two palila were detected outside the core survey area during a mountain-wide survey in 2017, suggesting that most, if not all, palila inhabit the western slope during the annual survey period. Since 1998, the size of the area containing palila detections on the western slope did not show a significant change, suggesting that the range of the species has remained stable; although this area represents only about 5% of its historical extent. During 1998−2003, palila numbers fluctuated moderately (coefficient of variation [CV] = 0.20). After peaking in 2003, population estimates declined steadily through 2011; since 2010, estimates have continued to decline at a slower rate. The average rate of decline during 1998−2018 was 168 birds per year with very strong statistical support for an overall declining trend in abundance. Over the 21-year monitoring period, the estimated rate of change equated to a 76% decline in the population.

Hawai`i↗

USGS2017

Population trends, extinction risk, and conservation guidelines for ferruginous pygmy-owls in the Sonoran Desert

Climatic flux together with anthropogenic changes in land use and land cover pose major threats to wildlife, but our understanding of their combined impacts is limited. In arid southwestern North America, ferruginous pygmy-owls ( Glaucidium brasilianum ) are of major conservation concern due to marked declines in abundance linked to changes in land use and land cover during the past century. We reassessed abundance trends of pygmy-owls in northern Mexico across 17 years (2000-2016), which included data gathered over four additional years since inferences were last reported. We also assessed spatiotemporal trends in territory occupancy (n = 151 territories) across a much larger area that spanned 14 watershed regions in northern Mexico and adjacent Arizona over 16 years (2001-2016). Finally, we evaluated the influence of temperature, precipitation, land-use and land-cover change, spatial variation in local habitat quality, and interactions among these factors on occupancy dynamics. Large increases in abundance in 2015 and 2016 eliminated evidence of population declines that was described recently (e.g., Flesch 2014a) based on two modeling approaches. Moreover, there was little evidence of systematic temporal declines in territory occupancy across the broader bi-national study area, or for population units in Mexico and the adjacent U.S. Instead, occupancy dynamics varied at smaller spatial scales among watershed regions. We found that subpopulations in six regions declined or marginally declined across time, including two in the U.S. that declined to extinction; subpopulations in six other regions were stable; and those in two regions increased or marginally increased. Although variation in territory occupancy was associated with changes in temperature, precipitation, anthropogenic disturbance, and local differences in habitat quality, evidence for interactions among these factors was much greater than that for additive relationships. Territory occupancy declined with rising minimum air temperatures during winter at a much greater rate in disturbed landscapes compared to those with little to no anthropogenic disturbance. Moreover, occupancy increased with annual precipitation at increasingly positive rates as local territory quality increased. Such results suggest a complex set of processes simultaneously drove changes in territory occupancy, likely by influencing food abundance and the quantity, connectivity, and quality of habitat. Management focused on 1) protecting high-quality habitat, 2) enhancing and creating habitat (e.g., nest-cavity augmentation, riparian restoration), 3) reducing deleterious changes in land use and land cover, and 4) increasing landscape connectivity through both passive (e.g., landscape planning and restoration) and active (e.g., facilitated dispersal, translocations) techniques will enhance recovery prospects for pygmyowls.

Sonoran Desert↗

USGS2020

Quality Assurance Project Plan: Status and trends monitoring of small streams in the Puget Lowlands ecoregion for Stormwater Action Monitoring (SAM)

This Quality Assurance Project Plan (QAPP) details a long term status and trends monitoring study for small streams in the Puget Lowland as part of Stormwater Action Monitoring (SAM) program. SAM is the regional stormwater monitoring program funded by the Phase I Municipal Stormwater permit and the Western Washington Phase II Municipal Stormwater permit permittees. This study of small streams in the Puget Lowland Ecoregion (called Puget Small Streams, PSS study, or SAM_PSS study hereafter) is designed to answer the question, “Are regional conditions in receiving water quality and biota improving in concert with broad implementation of required stormwater management practices?” In 2015, the first round of monitoring evaluated the condition (status) of streams (DeGasperi et al., 2018). Beginning in 2020 and thereafter this study will monitor streams’ changes over time in urban, urbanizing and rural areas of the Puget Lowland. The PSS will follow the protocols developed for the on-going statewide stream health monitoring program-Status and Trends Monitoring for Watershed Health and Salmon Recovery (WHSR) for physical habitat, biological measurements, except for minor changes to water quality parameters to better capture the stormwater-related chemistry signals. In addition this effort will sample sieved sediments for stormwater-related chemistry signals. This QAPP ensures quality data collection, analysis, reporting and management of the SAM PSS monitoring study

Washington↗

USGS2022

2019-2021 Palila abundance estimates and trend

The palila ( Loxioides bailleui ) population on Mauna Kea Volcano, Hawai‘i Island, was estimated from annual surveys in 2019−2021, and a trend analysis was performed on survey data from 1998−2021. The 2019 population was estimated at 1,030−1,899 birds (point estimate: 1,432), the 2020 population was estimated at 964−1,700 birds (point estimate: 1,312), and the 2021 population was estimated at 452−940 birds (point estimate: 678). Since 1998, a visual inspection of the size of the area containing palila detections on the western slope based on the minimum/maximum elevations has not shown a substantial change, indicating that the range of the species has remained stable; although this area represents only about 5% of its historical extent. During 1998−2005, palila numbers fluctuated between 4,000 and 6,000, followed by a steep decline. After 2010, palila estimates stabilized around an abundance of 2,000 with a much slower rate of decline. The decline during 1998−2021 was on average 229 birds per year with very strong statistical support for an overall downward trend in abundance. Over the 23-year monitoring period, the estimated rate of change equated to an 89% decline in the population.

Hawaii↗

USGS2023

Status and trends of pelagic and benthic prey fish populations in Lake Michigan, 2022

Fall bottom trawl (fall BT) and lakewide acoustic (AC) surveys are conducted annually to generate indices of pelagic and benthic prey fish densities in Lake Michigan. The fall BT survey has been conducted each fall since 1973 using 12-m trawls at depths ranging from 9 to 110 m at fixed locations distributed across seven transects; this survey estimates densities of seven prey fish species [i.e., Alewife (Alosa pseudoharengus), Bloater ( Coregonus hoyi ), Rainbow Smelt ( Osmerus mordax ), Deepwater Sculpin ( Myoxocephalus thompsonii ), Slimy Sculpin ( Cottus cognatus ), Round Goby ( Neogobius melanostomus ), Ninespine Stickleback ( Pungitius pungitius )] as well as age-0 Yellow Perch ( Perca flavescens ) and large (> 350 mm) Burbot ( Lota lota ). The AC survey has been conducted each late summer/early fall since 2004, and the 2022 survey consisted of 26 transects [570 km total (354 miles)] covering bottom depths ranging from 5 to 255 m and 37 midwater trawl tows above bottom depths ranging 5 to 232 m; this survey estimates densities of three prey fish species (i.e., Alewife, Bloater, and Rainbow Smelt). The data generated from these surveys are used to estimate various population parameters that are, in turn, used by state and tribal agencies in managing Lake Michigan fish stocks. In spring of 2022, an additional spring bottom trawl survey (spring BT) was implemented across six of the transects sampled in the fall and sites ranged in depth from 9 to 236 m. The goal of the spring BT was to explore seasonal differences in biomass density and distributions of key prey species, mostly notably Alewife. Total prey fish biomass density from the spring BT was 2.1 kg/ha. For the AC survey, total biomass density of prey fish equaled 6.2 kg/ha, 37% higher than the long-term average (2004-2021) of 4.5 kg/ha and 0.43 kg/ha higher than the 2021 estimate. For the fall BT, total biomass density of prey fish equaled 8.7 kg/ha, the highest value since 2013 and 21% higher than average value from 20042021 (6.8 kg/ha). The 2022 fall BT biomass density was still well below the average over the entirety of the time series (1973-2021; 34.3 kg/ha). Over the period both surveys have been conducted (2004-2021), total biomass density has trended downward in the fall BT (despite a high 2022 estimate) and remained relatively stable in the AC survey. Bloater was the dominant species (by biomass) among prey fishes in both the spring and fall BT, while the AC survey reported co-dominance of Bloater and Alewife. Mean biomass of yearling and older (YAO) Alewife was 0.38 kg/ha in the spring BT, 3.0 kg/ha in the AC survey, and 0.10 in the fall BT. Alewife were aggregated in deepwater habitats in the spring of 2022 (> 110 m). Since 2014, catchability of YAO Alewives for the fall BT has been substantially lower than the AC survey. Results of the 2022 spring BT do not suggest that catchability is substantially higher in the spring than the fall. Comparing the acoustic estimate to previous years, YAO Alewife biomass was 40% higher than the average from 2004-2021. An age-7 fish was recorded for the first time since 2009. Despite the rare catches of older fish, the Alewife age distribution still appears truncated, with age-1 fish as the most represented age class in all three surveys. Numeric density of age-0 Alewife from the AC survey was 7 fish/ha in 2022, which is the third lowest in the time series and well below the longterm mean of 452 fish/ha. Biomass density of large (≥120 mm) Bloater was 2.7 kg/ha in the AC survey and 4.4 kg/ha in the fall BT - each at least an order of magnitude lower than what was estimated by the fall BT between 1981 and 1998. Following a record high year in 2021 (1,037 fish/ha), the numeric density of small (<120 mm) Bloater was only 15 fish/ha in the AC survey. Meanwhile, small Bloater density estimated in the fall BT was 261 fish/ha, the highest value since 1990 and likely partially reflective of a large 2021 year-class. Biomass density of large Rainbow Smelt (≥90 mm) was 0.29 kg/ha in the AC survey and 0.12 kg/ha in the fall BT survey, continuing the trend of low Rainbow Smelt biomass that has been observed since 2001. Numeric density of small (<90 mm) Rainbow Smelt was 21 fish/ha in the AC survey and 2.7 fish/ha in the fall BT, indicating a weak year-class. All four prey fish species sampled only by the fall BT indicated below average biomass densities. Deepwater Sculpin biomass density was estimated at 0.41 kg/ha, which makes 12 of the past 13 years when biomass was <1 kg/ha. Slimy Sculpin was estimated at 0.10 kg/ha, the highest estimate since 2016 but still only 25% of the long-term average. Round Goby was estimated at 1.3 kg/ha, above the average biomass of 0.82 kg/ha since 2008 but similar to intermittent high values observed throughout the dataset. Ninespine Stickleback density was 1.5 fish/ha. Burbot biomass remained near record low levels, and no age-0 Yellow Perch were caught, indicating a weak Yellow Perch year-class in 2022.

Lake Michigan↗

USGS2023

James Tributary summary: A summary of trends in tidal water quality and associated factors, 1985-2021

The James Tributary Summary outlines change over time for a suite of monitored tidal water quality parameters and associated potential drivers of those trends for the period 1985 – 2021 and provides a brief description of the current state of knowledge explaining these observed changes. Water quality parameters described include surface (above pycnocline) total nitrogen (TN), surface total phosphorus (TP), surface water temperature (WTEMP), spring and summer (June, July, August) surface chlorophyll a, summer bottom (below pycnocline) dissolved oxygen (DO) concentrations, and Secchi disk depth (a measure of water clarity). Results for annual bottom TP, bottom TN, surface ortho-phosphate (PO4), surface dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN), surface total suspended solids (TSS), and summer surface DO concentrations are provided in an Appendix. Drivers discussed include physiographic watershed characteristics, changes in TN, TP, and sediment loads from the watershed to tidal waters, expected effects of changing land use, and implementation of nutrient management and natural resource conservation practices. Factors internal to estuarine waters that also play a role as drivers are described including biogeochemical processes, physical forces such as wind-driven mixing of the water column and increase in rainfall intensity and volume, and biological factors such as phytoplankton biomass and the presence of submerged aquatic vegetation. Continuing to track water quality response and investigating these influencing factors are important steps to understanding water quality patterns and changes in the James River. The intended audiences for this report include, but are not limited to, 1) technical managers within jurisdictions who are looking at tidal water quality data and trying to understand why patterns are occurring, 2) local watershed organizations that are trying to understand these analyses and working to connect them to their local area(s), and 3) federal, state, and academic researchers. Figure 1 presents a conceptual model highlighting these intended audiences. Our goal is for the Tributary Summary documents to be sources of readily available background for change over time in tidal water quality observed with monitoring data. The intended purpose of the Tributary Summary documents is to help answer questions related to water quality, show how landscape factors drive water quality change over time, provide support for management decisions that may alter water quality trends and living resources conditions, and highlight where there may be information or knowledge gaps.

Virginia↗

USGS2024

Western and McKay's bumble bees occupancy trends and future projections

The Western and McKay's bumble bees, originally petitioned for listing as subspecies of the Western bumble bee (Bombus occidentalis) were previously among the most common western bumble bee species but have declined since the late 1990s (Graves et al. 2021). This report details an occupancy analysis utilizing pre-existing and newly collected bumble bee survey data to evaluate potential mechanisms associated with species trends across their distributions in western North America. In addition to evaluating spatially explicit changes in occupancy trends, we also sought to assess how widespread environmental conditions and stressors influence occupancy. Although changing climate, land cover, pesticides, and pathogens have all been identified as potential mechanisms for declines (Cameron et al. 2011, Kerr et al. 2015, Soroye et al. 2020), previous studies have not tied most climate hypotheses to bumble bee life histories or evaluated combined effects of more than 2 of these mechanisms at multi-state/ multiprovince scales. Using a scenario-based approach across climate models, emissions, and land cover scenarios, we projected future occupancy to mid-century (2050-2059). This analysis was conducted to support the Species Status Assessment (SSA) for Western and Mckay’s bumble bees being administered by the U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service (USFWS).

Report↗

USGS2024

Rappahannock tributary summary: A summary of trends in tidal water quality and associated factors, 1985-2022

The Rappahannock Tributary Summary outlines change over time for a suite of monitored tidal water quality parameters and associated potential drivers of those trends for the period of 1985 to 2022, and provides a brief description of the current state of knowledge explaining these observed changes. Water quality parameters described include surface (above pycnocline) total nitrogen (TN), surface total phosphorus (TP), surface water temperature (WTEMP), spring (March-May) and summer (JulySeptember) surface chlorophyll a, summer bottom (below pycnocline) dissolved oxygen (DO) concentrations, and Secchi disk depth (a measure of water clarity). Results for annual bottom TP, bottom TN, surface ortho-phosphate (PO 4 ), surface dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN), surface total suspended solids (TSS), and summer surface DO concentrations are provided in Appendix B. Drivers discussed include physiographic watershed characteristics, changes in TN, TP, and sediment loads from the watershed to tidal waters, expected effects of changing land use, and implementation of nutrient management and natural resource conservation practices. Factors internal to estuarine waters that also play a role as drivers are described including biogeochemical processes, physical forces such as winddriven mixing of the water column and increase in rainfall intensity and volume, and biological factors such as phytoplankton biomass and the presence of submerged aquatic vegetation. Continuing to track water quality response and investigating these influencing factors are important steps to understanding water quality patterns and changes in the Rappahannock River. The intended audiences for this report include, but are not limited to, 1) technical managers within jurisdictions who are looking at tidal water quality data and trying to understand why patterns are occurring, 2) local watershed organizations that are trying to understand these analyses and working to connect them to their local area(s), and 3) federal, state, and academic researchers. Figure 1 presents a conceptual model highlighting these intended audiences. Our goal is for the Tributary Summary documents to be sources of readily available background for change over time in tidal water quality observed with monitoring data. The intended purpose of the Tributary Summary documents is to help answer questions related to water quality, show how landscape factors drive water quality change over time, provide support for management decisions that may alter water quality trends and living resources conditions, and highlight where there may be information or knowledge gaps.

Virginia↗

USGS2024

Surface elevation trends in North Carolina's coastal wetlands

Coastal wetlands exist in the narrow fringe between uplands and open water and consequently, are uniquely vulnerable to the impacts of sea level rise (SLR). Predictive models suggest that in the coming decades sea level rise will lead to substantial losses of coastal wetland habitat in North Carolina. Empirical measurements of wetland response to SLR are vital for understanding which wetland complexes are most immediately threatened, so that mitigation, adaptation, and conservation efforts can be prioritized accordingly. Surface Elevation Tables (SETs) provide high resolution measures of wetland elevation change that can meet this need. The North Carolina SET Community of Practice (NC SET COP) is a voluntary and unfunded partnership among stakeholders who have either installed Surface Elevation Tables (SETs) in North Carolina coastal wetlands, or who rely on SET data. The NC SET COP was formed in 2018 to identify and map the locations of all SETs installed within North Carolina, increase collaboration among SET users, and support efforts to identify regional trends in North Carolina coastal wetland response to sea level rise. The data presented here represent the first synoptic analysis of elevation trend data collected by NC SET COP partners. Of 132 SETs installed across North Carolina (NC), 33 recorded net losses in elevation over the entire record of measurement. Among the 99 SETs that recorded positive elevation change, 79 (80%) did not build elevation fast enough to keep pace with the average rate of SLR over the past 30 years. The story these data tell is clear: the majority of NC’s coastal wetlands are not keeping pace with SLR. These data also provide a spatially explicit understanding of which wetlands are most at risk, and as a result, the SET data can help guide the use of restoration efforts for maximum effectiveness.

North Carolina↗

USGS2025

Status and trends of the Lake Huron prey fish community, 1976-2024

The U. S. Geological Survey-Great Lakes Science Center has monitored annual changes in the offshore (depth > 9m) prey fish community of Lake Huron since 1973. Monitoring of prey fish populations in Lake Huron is based on a bottom trawl survey that targets demersal species (i.e., those predominantly or intermittently associated with the lake bottom) and an acoustic-midwater trawl survey that targets pelagic species and life stages. Prey fish abundance and species composition in 2024 was generally consistent with trends observed over the past decade. Bloater ( Coregonus hoyi ) remains the most abundant and widespread prey species, although its abundance is starting to decline owing to changes in demographic factors that are interacting to suppress reproduction. Rainbow Smelt ( Osmerus mordax ) remain widely distributed across Lake Huron but their dynamics vary by basin. Rainbow Smelt populations currently are larger in Georgian Bay and the North Channel than in the main basin where they have produced eight weak year classes over the past decade including in 2024. Populations of Alewife ( Alosa pseudoharengus ) continue to be comprised of low numbers of age-0 individuals, and sculpin communities consist primarily of Deepwater Sculpin ( Myoxocephalus thompsonii ) due to the reduced abundance and distribution of Slimy Sculpin ( Cottus cognatus ). In contrast, biomass of the invasive Round Goby ( Neogobius melanostomus ) in 2024 was the highest observed in the bottom trawl time series and was over four times greater than in 2023. Overall status of main basin prey fish community was rated as ‘fair.’ Stable dynamics of main basin Bloater populations and evidence of continued recovery by Cisco ( Coregonus artedi ) in the North Channel were interpreted as positive community trends, whereas growth and expansion of Round Goby populations and low species diversity of pelagic prey fish communities are inconsistent with fish community objectives. Use of complementary surveys (bottom trawl, acoustics) remains useful for evaluating prey fish status in Lake Huron, where prey fish community dynamics vary by basin and prey fish responses to changing environmental conditions depend on species and/or habitat.

Lake Huron↗

USGS2025

2022–2024 Status and trends of the Palila (Loxioides bailleui)

Palila (Loxioides bailleui) are critically endangered Hawaiian honeycreepers specializing on the seedpods of māmane (Sophora chrysophylla) and restricted to Mauna Kea volcano on the Island of Hawaiʻi. A previous analysis of survey data estimated an 89% population decline between 1998 and 2021. Using the most recent annual survey data from 2022, 2023, and 2024, we report updated annual population estimates and trends since 1998. The 2022 population estimate was 367–742 birds (point estimate: 545); the 2023 population estimate was 374–842 birds (point estimate: 596); and the 2024 population estimate was 412–970 birds (point estimate: 666). Our estimates for survey years prior to 2022 were within the confidence intervals of the estimates from the previous analysis. Our models likewise showed a population fluctuating between 4,000 and 6,800 birds from 1998 to 2005 (except for an unusually low estimate in 2000), and then a steep decline through 2010. For the next decade, palila abundance fluctuated between 776 and 1,346 birds, before declining again in 2021 to 679 birds. From 1998 to 2024, the population declined by >90% or 203 birds/year, with very strong statistical evidence of an overall downward trend.

Hawaii↗

USGS2025

Status and trends of pelagic and benthic prey fish populations in Lake Michigan, 2024

Fall bottom trawl (fall BT) and lakewide acoustic (AC) surveys are conducted annually to generate indices of pelagic and benthic prey fish densities in Lake Michigan. The fall BT survey has been conducted each fall since 1973 using 12-m trawls at depths ranging from 9 to 110 m at fixed locations distributed across seven transects; this survey estimates densities of seven prey fish species [i.e., Alewife ( Alosa pseudoharengus ), Bloater ( Coregonus hoyi ), Rainbow Smelt ( Osmerus mordax ), Deepwater Sculpin ( Myoxocephalus thompsonii ), Slimy Sculpin ( Cottus cognatus ), Round Goby ( Neogobius melanostomus ), Ninespine Stickleback ( Pungitius pungitius )] as well as age-0 Yellow Perch ( Perca flavescens ) and large (> 350 mm) Burbot ( Lota lota ). In recent years, wild juvenile (<400 mm) Lake Trout ( Salvelinus namaycush ) have also become more common in the fall bottom trawl. The AC survey has been conducted each late summer/early fall since 2004 (except 2020). The 2024 AC survey consisted of 24 transects [468 km total (291 miles)] covering bottom depths ranging from 16 to 173 m and 38 midwater trawl tows at 4 to 72 m; this survey estimates densities of three prey fish species (i.e., Alewife, Bloater, and Rainbow Smelt). The data generated from these surveys are used to estimate various population parameters that are, in turn, used by state and tribal agencies in managing Lake Michigan fish stocks. In spring of 2024, an additional spring bottom trawl survey (spring BT) was implemented across six of the transects sampled in the fall and sites ranged in depth from 9 to 237 m. The goal of the spring BT, conducted annually since 2021 with differing levels of effort, was to explore seasonal differences in biomass density and distributions of key prey species, most notably Alewife. Total prey fish biomass density from the spring BT was 5.7 kg/ha. For the AC survey, total biomass density of prey fish equaled 10.8 kg/ha, more than double the long-term average (20042023) of 5.1 kg/ha but 4.0 kg/ha lower than the 2023 estimate. For the fall BT, total biomass density of prey fish equaled 2.1 kg/ha, the lowest value since 2020 and 69% lower than the average from 2004-2023 (6.8 kg/ha). The 2024 fall BT biomass density was only 6.3% of the average over the entirety of the time series (1973-2023; 33.1 kg/ha). Over the period both surveys have been conducted (2004-2024), total biomass density has trended downward in the fall BT (despite a high 2022 estimate) and remained relatively stable in the AC survey. Deepwater Sculpin and Bloater were the most common species (by biomass) among prey fishes in the spring BT while the AC survey and fall BT reported co-dominance of Bloater and Alewife. Mean biomass of yearling and older (YAO) Alewife was 1.30 kg/ha in the spring BT, 4.7 kg/ha in the AC survey, and 0.68 kg/ha in the fall BT. Since 2014, annual survey results suggest that the catchability of YAO Alewives for the fall BT is substantially lower than the AC survey. Like previous spring surveys, Alewives were aggregated in deeper habitats, with 93% of biomass collected between 110 and 201 m. Results of the 2024 spring BT align with past spring surveys and do not suggest that spring bottom trawling provides a better index of age-2 and older Alewives than fall bottom trawling, even with adjustments for differences in habitat use. However, the spring BT does appear to index age-1 Alewives more effectively than the fall BT. The 2024 AC survey YAO Alewife biomass density estimate was 77% higher than the average from 2004-2023. The Alewife population of Lake Michigan appears to be composed mostly of young fish and the proportion of age-4 and older Alewives was <1.8% in each of the three surveys. Age-0 Alewife numeric density from the AC survey was 510 fish/ha in 2024, slightly higher than the long-term mean (486 fish/ha). Biomass density of large (≥120 mm) Bloater was 5.2 kg/ha in the AC survey and 0.76 kg/ha in the fall BT, while total Bloater biomass in the spring BT was 1.8 kg/ha - all three estimates were much lower than what was estimated by the fall BT between 1981 and 1998. The density of small (<120 mm) Bloater was 456 fish/ha in the AC survey, the second highest value in the time series and potentially reflective of an above average 2024 year-class. Meanwhile, small Bloater density estimated in the fall BT was only 16 fish/ha. Biomass density of large Rainbow Smelt (≥90 mm) was 0.21 kg/ha in the AC survey and 0.03 kg/ha in the fall BT survey, continuing the trend of low large Rainbow Smelt biomass observed since 2001. Numeric density of small (<90 mm) Rainbow Smelt was 31 fish/ha in the AC survey and 143 fish/ha in the fall BT. All four prey fish species indexed only by the fall BT had below-average biomass densities regardless of trawling season. Deepwater Sculpin biomass density was 0.26 kg/ha, which makes 14 of the past 15 years with biomass <1 kg/ha. Spring BT Deepwater Sculpin biomass density (2.0 kg/ha) was higher than any fall BT estimate since 2006, likely reflective of including bottom trawls at greater depths in the spring than the fall. Slimy Sculpin was estimated to be < 0.04 kg/ha in the spring and fall BT, an order of magnitude lower than the long-term average from the fall BT. Round Goby biomass density estimates were low and similar across seasons (0.43 kg/ha in the spring and 0.10 kg/ha in the fall). Ninespine Stickleback density was 3.9 fish/ha in the fall BT and no fish were collected in the spring BT.

Lake Michigan↗

USGS2025

Potomac Tributary Summary: A summary of trends in tidal water quality and associated factors, 1985 - 2022

The Potomac Tributary Summary outlines change over time for a suite of monitored tidal water quality parameters and associated potential drivers of those trends for the period of 1985 to 2022, and provides a brief description of the current state of knowledge explaining these observed changes. Water quality parameters described include surface (above pycnocline) total nitrogen (TN), surface total phosphorus (TP), surface water temperature (WTEMP), spring (March-May) and summer (July-September) surface chlorophyll a, summer bottom (below pycnocline) dissolved oxygen (DO) concentrations, and Secchi disk depth (a measure of water clarity). Results for annual bottom TP, bottom TN, surface ortho-phosphate (PO4), surface dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN), surface total suspended solids (TSS), and summer surface DO concentrations are provided in Appendix B. Drivers discussed include physiographic watershed characteristics, changes in TN, TP, and sediment loads from the watershed to tidal waters, expected effects of changing land use, and implementation of nutrient management and natural resource conservation practices. Factors internal to estuarine waters that also play a role as drivers are described including biogeochemical processes, physical forces such as wind driven mixing of the water column and increase in rainfall intensity and volume, and biological factors such as phytoplankton biomass and the presence of submerged aquatic vegetation. Continuing to track water quality response and investigating these influencing factors are important steps to understanding water quality patterns and changes in the Potomac River. The intended audiences for this report include, but are not limited to, 1) technical managers within jurisdictions who are looking at tidal water quality data and trying to understand why patterns are occurring, 2) local watershed organizations that are trying to understand these analyses and working to connect them to their local area(s), and 3) federal, state, and academic researchers. Figure 1 presents a conceptual model highlighting these intended audiences. Our goal is for the Tributary Summary documents to be sources of readily available background for change over time in tidal water quality observed with monitoring data. The intended purpose of the Tributary Summary documents is to help answer questions related to water quality, show how landscape factors drive water quality change over time, provide support for management decisions that may alter water quality trends and living resources conditions, and highlight where there may be information or knowledge gaps.

Maryland, Pennsylvania, Virginia, West Virginia↗