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USGS2024

Forecasting storm-induced coastal flooding for 21st century sea-level rise scenarios in the Hawaiian, Mariana, and American Samoan Islands

Oceanographic, coastal engineering, ecologic, and geospatial data and tools were combined to evaluate the increased risks of storm-induced coastal flooding in the populated Hawaiian, Mariana, and American Samoan Islands as a result of climate change and sea-level rise. We followed a hybrid (dynamical and statistical) downscaling approach to map flooding due to waves and storm surge at 10-square meter resolution along all 1,870 kilometers of these islands’ coastlines for annual (1-year), 20-year, and 100-year return-interval storm events and +0.00 meter (m), +0.25 m, +0.50 m, +1.00 m, +1.50 m, +2.00 m, and +3.00 m sea-level rise scenarios. We quantified the coastal flood depths and extents using the latest climate forcing from Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change’s Sixth Assessment Report Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. The data generated using these methods provide stakeholders and decision makers with a spatially explicit, rigorous valuation of how, where, and when climate change and sea-level rise increase coastal storm-induced flooding to help identify areas where management and (or) restoration could potentially help reduce the risk to, and increase the resiliency of, the coastal communities in the populated Hawaiian, Mariana, and American Samoan Islands.

Hawaii↗

USGS2021

Rigorously valuing the coastal hazard risks reduction provided by potential coral reef restoration in Florida and Puerto Rico

The restoration of coastal habitats, particularly coral reefs, can reduce risks by decreasing the exposure of coastal communities to flooding hazards. In the United States, the protective services provided by coral reefs were recently assessed in social and economic terms, with the annual protection provided by U.S. coral reefs off the coasts of the State of Florida and the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico estimated to be more than 9,800 people and $859 million (2010 U.S. dollars). Hurricanes Irma and Maria in 2017 caused widespread damage to coral reefs in the State of Florida and the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico. Here we combine engineering, ecologic, geospatial, social, and economic data and tools to provide a rigorous valuation of where potential coral reef restoration could decrease the hazard faced by Florida and Puerto Rico’s reef-fronted coastal communities. The three restoration scenarios considered: (1) Ecological restoration, ‘E25’, which assumes planting 0.25-meter (m)-high corals on a (cross-shore) 25-m-wide reef; (2) Structural plus ecological, ‘S25’, which assumes emplacing a 1.00-m high structure with 0.25-m high corals on top on a 25 m wide reef; and (3) structural plus ecological, ‘S05’, which assumes emplacing a 1.00-m high structure with 0.25-m high corals on top on a 5 m wide reef. Planted corals are assumed to increase hydrodynamic roughness, thereby dissipating incident wave energy and decreasing flooding potential. We used a standardized approach to ‘place’ potential restoration projects throughout the whole (linear) extent of reefs bordering Florida and Puerto Rico to identify where coral reef restoration could be useful for meeting flood reduction benefits. We always sited potential restoration projects within the existing distribution of reefs even though many sites were far (kilometers [km]) offshore and some sites were relatively deep (up to 7 m depth). We followed risk-based valuation approaches to map flood zones at 10-square-meter resolution along all 980 km of Florida and Puerto’s Rico reef-lined shorelines for the three potential coral reef restoration scenarios and compare them to the flood zones without coral reef restoration. We quantified the potential coastal flood risk reduction provided by coral reef restoration using the latest information from the U.S. Census Bureau, Federal Emergency Management Agency, and Bureau of Economic Analysis for return-interval storm events. Using the damages associated with each storm probability, we also calculate the change in annual expected damages, a measure of the annual protection gained because of coral reef restoration. We found that the benefits of reef restoration off Florida and Puerto Rico are spatially highly variable. In most areas, we found little or no benefit from reef restoration (for example, restoration sites were far offshore or deep). However, there were a number of key areas where reef restoration could have substantial benefits for flood risk reduction. In particular, we estimated the protection gained by Florida and Puerto Rico’s coral reefs from coral reef restoration to result in: Avoided flooding to more than 5.6 square kilometers (2.16 square miles) of land annually; Avoided flooding affecting more than 3,100 people annually; Avoided direct damages of more than $124.2 million to more than 890 buildings annually; and Avoided indirect damages to more $148.7 million in economic activity owing to housing and business damage annually. Thus, the annual value of flood risk reduction provided by potential coral reef restoration in Florida and Puerto Rico is more than 3,100 people and $272.9 million (2010 U.S. dollars) in economic activity. These data provide stakeholders and decision makers with a spatially explicit, rigorous valuation of how, where, and when potential coral reef restoration in Florida and Puerto Rico can increase critical coastal storm flood reduction benefits. These results help identify areas where reef management, recovery, and restoration could potentially help reduce the risk to, and increase the resiliency of, Florida and Puerto Rico’s coastal communities.

Florida↗

USGS2024

Incorporating projected climate conditions to map future riparian refugia

Identifying areas expected to remain buffered from climate change and maintain biodiversity and ecological function (i.e., climate refugia) is important for climate adaptation planning. As structurally diverse transitional zones between terrestrial and aquatic environments, riparian areas are often biological hotspots and provide critical corridors for species movement, particularly in arid and semi-arid regions. In our study region in the western and central USA, identifying riparian areas that could serve as climate refugia is a priority for wildlife managers. We mapped areas with connected riparian habitats that, based on landscape diversity and projected changes in summer temperatures and landscape runoff, are expected to serve as climate refugia. To incorporate uncertainty and balance the need for near- and long-term planning, we mapped potential refugia for 2 future time periods (2040–2069, 2070–2099) based on 2 climate models that represented divergent but plausible climate outcomes. The approach we developed is not constrained by physiology or behavior of target species and can be used to identify areas expected to fare comparatively well under a wide range of future climate scenarios. Our approach can also be used to identify areas where restoration could increase riparian connectedness and climate resilience.

Colorado, Indiana, Kansas, Montana, North Dakota, ↗

USGS2008

Chemical Results of Laboratory Dry/Rewet Experiments Conducted on Wetland Soils from Two Sites in the Everglades, Florida

Drought and fire are natural environmental factors that have historically impacted and shaped the Everglades ecosystem. For example, drought and fire help to maintain the existing ecosystem biotic assemblage by periodically eradicating invading flora not adapted to living with this normal aspect of Everglades' ecology. Flora native to the Everglades are adapted to withstand normal drought cycles and all but the most intense fire conditions that burn into the peat substrate. Remobilization of nutrients and other elements from wetland soil following drought/fire and rewetting may actually stimulate plant re-growth, assisting in the recovery of the ecosystem from these events, and play a role in maintaining the geochemical balance of the ecosystem. Although drought/fire cycles occur naturally in the Everglades' ecosystem, the frequency, intensity, and duration of these events have been altered by anthropogenic activities. The hydrology of the ecosystem has been changed by the construction of water management structures starting around 1900 and continuing through the 1970s. These structures include canals, levees, and pumping stations around Lake Okeechobee and within the Everglades. In addition, water management practices have preferentially moved water toward agricultural and urban areas and away from the Everglades during periods of low rainfall. One result of these practices has been more severe drought and fire cycles within the ecosystem compared to pre-development activity. A major goal of restoration efforts in the Everglades is to restore a more natural flow of water into the ecosystem to alleviate some of the extreme drought and fire conditions witnessed during the past several decades.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2005

Threats, conservation strategies, and prognosis for suckers (Catostomidae) in North America: insights from regional case studies of a diverse family of non-game fishes

Catostomid fishes are a diverse family of 76+ freshwater species that are distributed across North America in many different habitats. This group of fish is facing a variety of impacts and conservation issues that are somewhat unique relative to more economically valuable and heavily managed fish species. Here, we present a brief series of case studies to highlight the threats such as migration barriers, flow regulation, environmental contamination, habitat degradation, exploitation and impacts from introduced (non-native) species that are facing catostomids in different regions. Collectively, the case studies reveal that individual species usually are not threatened by a single, isolated factor. Instead, species in general face numerous stressors that threaten multiple stages of their life history. Several factors have retarded sucker conservation including widespread inabilities of field workers to distinguish some species, lack of basic natural history and ecological knowledge of life history, and the misconception that suckers are tolerant of degraded conditions and are of little social or ecological value. Without a specific constituent group lobbying for conservation of non-game fishes, all such species, including members of the catostomid family, will continue to face serious risks because of neglect, ignorance, and misunderstanding. We suggest that conservation strategies should incorporate research and education/outreach components. Other conservation strategies that would be effective for protecting suckers include freshwater protected areas for critical habitat, restoration of degraded habitat, and design of catostomid-friendly fish bypass facilities. We believe that the plight of the catostomids is representative of the threats facing many other non-game freshwater fishes with diverse life-history strategies globally.

Biological Conservation↗

USGS2021

Retrospective analysis of estrogenic endocrine disruption and land-use influences in the Chesapeake Bay watershed

The Chesapeake Bay is the largest estuary in the United States and its watershed includes river drainages in six states and the District of Columbia. Sportfishing is of major economic interest, however, the rivers within the watershed provide numerous other ecological, recreational, cultural and economic benefits, as well as serving as a drinking water source for millions of people. Consequently, major fish kills and the subsequent finding of estrogenic endocrine disruption (intersex or testicular oocytes and plasma vitellogenin in male fishes) raised public and management concerns. Studies have occurred at various sites within the Bay watershed to document the extent and severity of endocrine disruption, identify risk factors and document temporal and spatial variability. Data from these focal studies, which began in 2004, were used in CART (classification and regression trees) analyses to better identify land use associations and potential management practices that influence estrogenic endocrine disruption. These analyses emphasized the importance of scale (immediate versus upstream catchment) and the complex mixtures of stressors which can contribute to surface water estrogenicity and the associated adverse effects of exposure. Both agricultural (percent cultivated, pesticide application, phytoestrogen cover crops) and developed (population density, road density, impervious surface) land cover showed positive relationships to estrogenic indicators, while percent forest and shrubs generally had a negative association. The findings can serve as a baseline for assessing ongoing restoration and management practices.

Chesapeake Bay river watersheds↗

USGS2016

Predictive mapping of seabirds, pinnipeds and cetaceans off the Pacific Coast of Washington

About this report This report supports Washington-led marine spatial planning and responsible stewardship of natural and cultural resources by the Olympic Coast National Marine Sanctuary. Washington state agencies and the sanctuary continually seek the best available science to improve management of marine uses and stewardship of resources (Etheridge et al., 2010; Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife, 2015a). This report and associated data provide new, state- and sanctuary-requested information on seabird, pinniped, and cetacean distributions. Through spatial planning, information on species distributions can help to identify high-value conservation areas, minimize adverse effects of ocean uses and mitigate impacts of coastal hazards. Correspondingly, the Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife has already begun to use the maps of predicted relative density presented in this report to identify ecologically important areas off the Pacific Coast of Washington and apply this information to plan for offshore renewable energy development. This is the culmination of three years of work to compile information on seabirds, pinnipeds, and cetaceans, and advance a modeling framework that can integrate data sets and develop accurate predictions of relative density for important species off the Pacific Coast of Washington. Previous reports, which evaluated existing datasets of at-sea observations (Menza et al., 2014; Kracker and Menza, 2015) and presented superseded versions of seabird models (Menza et al., 2015), provided base information for this report. In addition to the maps in this published report, all new seabird, pinniped and cetacean predictions will be made publicly available as digital geospatial data through the National Centers for Environmental Information. This research supports the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Coastal Zone Management Program, a voluntary partnership between the federal government and U.S. coastal and Great Lakes states and territories authorized by the Coastal Zone Management Act (CZMA) of 1972 to address national coastal issues. The act provides the basis for protecting, restoring, and responsibly developing our nation’s diverse coastal communities and resources. To meet the goals of the CZMA, the national program takes a comprehensive approach to coastal resource management – balancing the often competing and occasionally conflicting demands of coastal resource use, economic development, and conservation. A wide range of issues are addressed through the program, including coastal development, water quality, public access, habitat protection, energy facility siting, ocean governance and planning, coastal hazards, and climate change. Accurate maps of seabird and marine mammal distributions are an important tool for making informed management decisions that affect all of these issues.

Washington↗

USGS2026

Long-term aridity shapes grassland drought resistance and modulates the roles of plant diversity and functional composition

Understanding the drivers of plant community stability is crucial for predicting ecosystem responses to extreme drought events. In grasslands, drought resistance supports the maintenance of key functions such as above-ground primary productivity, making the identification of resistance drivers essential to guide management under climate change. Proposed factors contributing to grassland stability include multiple diversity facets, functional traits and long-term climate, but most assessments focus on temporal invariability under historical disturbance regimes, leaving mechanisms of extreme drought resistance and their variation across climatic contexts relatively underexplored. Here, we analysed data from 54 grassland sites of the International Drought Experiment to examine the resistance of above-ground net primary productivity to a short-term (i.e. 1 year) extreme drought. We investigated the relative importance and joint influence of functional composition (i.e. community-weighted means of leaf and root traits), plant diversity facets (taxonomic, functional and phylogenetic) and climate (aridity and rainfall variability) on drought resistance. We used structural equation models to disentangle direct, indirect, and moderating pathways linking these drivers to drought resistance. Long-term aridity appeared as one of the most important drivers of grassland resistance to drought, with more arid sites showing lower resistance. Moreover, aridity impacted resistance through indirect effects by shaping functional composition and plant diversity, and by moderating the influence of plant diversity and functional composition. Functional composition related to dehydration avoidance and dehydration tolerance was also positively associated with resistance, while diversity had a weaker relationship with resistance, mostly through functional and phylogenetic facets. Interannual rainfall variability also influenced resistance, with different effects in more arid versus humid and less arid sites. Synthesis . Widely studied stability drivers such as plant diversity and functional composition have only partial explanatory power for short-term drought resistance of above-ground productivity in grasslands at a global scale. The abiotic context, particularly long-term aridity, is crucial for understanding ecosystem responses to rainfall variation and can improve predictive models for advancing the study of ecosystem resistance to drought. Along with management practices that target high species diversity or specific traits, restoration and conservation practices should support vulnerable sites experiencing high aridity

Journal of Ecology↗

USGS2017

Interactive effects of water temperature and salinity on growth and mortality of eastern oysters, Crassostrea virginica: A meta-analysis using 40 years of monitoring data

Despite nearly a century of exploitation and scientific study, predicting growth and mortality rates of the eastern oyster ( Crassostrea virginica ) as a means to inform local harvest and management activities remains difficult. Ensuring that models reflect local population responses to varying salinity and temperature combinations requires locally appropriate models. Using long-term (1988 to 2015) monitoring data from Louisiana's public oyster reefs, we develop regionally specific models of temperature- and salinity-driven mortality (sack oysters only) and growth for spat (<25 mm), seed (25–75 mm), and sack (>75 mm) oyster size classes. The results demonstrate that the optimal combination of temperature and salinity where Louisiana oysters experience reduced mortality and fast growth rates is skewed toward lower salinities and higher water temperatures than previous models have suggested. Outside of that optimal range, oysters are commonly exposed to combinations of temperature and salinity that are correlated with high mortality and reduced growth. How these combinations affect growth, and to a lesser degree mortality, appears to be size class dependent. Given current climate predictions for the region and ongoing large-scale restoration activities in coastal Louisiana, the growth and mortality models are a critical step toward ensuring sustainable oyster reefs for long-term harvest and continued delivery of the ecological services in a changing environment.

Louisiana↗

USGS2022

Targeting sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) restoration following wildfire with Greater Sage-Grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) nest selection and survival models

Unprecedented conservation efforts for sagebrush ( Artemisia spp.) ecosystems across the western United States have been catalyzed by risks from escalated wildfire activity that reduces habitat for sagebrush-obligate species such as Greater Sage-Grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ). However, post-fire restoration is challenged by spatial variation in ecosystem processes influencing resilience to disturbance and resistance to non-native invasive species, and spatial and temporal lags between slower sagebrush recovery processes and faster demographic responses of sage-grouse to loss of important habitat. Decision-support frameworks that account for these factors can help users strategically apply restoration efforts by predicting short and long-term ecological benefits of actions. Here, we developed a framework that strategically targets burned areas for restoration actions (e.g., seeding or planting sagebrush) that have the greatest potential to positively benefit sage-grouse populations through time. Specifically, we estimated sagebrush recovery following wildfire and risk of non-native annual grass invasion under four scenarios: passive recovery, grazing exclusion, active restoration with seeding, and active restoration with seedling transplants. We then applied spatial predictions of integrated nest site selection and survival models before wildfire, immediately following wildfire, and at 30 and 50 years post-wildfire based on each restoration scenario and measured changes in habitat. Application of this framework coupled with strategic planting designs aimed at developing patches of nesting habitat may help increase operational resilience for fire-impacted sagebrush ecosystems.

Environmental Management↗

USGS2017

The role of paleoecology in restoration and resource management—The past as a guide to future decision-making: Review and example from the Greater Everglades Ecosystem, U.S.A

Resource managers around the world are challenged to develop feasible plans for sustainable conservation and/or restoration of the lands, waters, and wildlife they administer—a challenge made greater by anticipated climate change and associated effects over the next century. Increasingly, paleoecologic and geologic archives are being used to extend the period of record of observed data and provide information on centennial to millennial scale responses to long-term drivers of ecosystem change. The development of paleoecology from an emerging field investigating past environments to a highly relevant applied science is reviewed and general examples of the application of paleoecologic research to resource management questions in diverse habitats and regions are provided. Specific examples of the application of paleoecologic research to the restoration of the Greater Everglades Ecosystem of south Florida (U.S.A) are presented. Conducting valuable scientific research that would benefit resource management decisions, however, is not enough. Scientists and resource managers need to be engaged in collaborative discussions from the beginning of the research process to ensure that management questions are being addressed and that the science reaches the people who will benefit from the information. Paleoecology and related disciplines provide an understanding of how ecosystems and individual species function and change over time in response to both natural and anthropogenic drivers. Information on pre-anthropogenic baseline conditions is provided by paleoecologic research, but it is the detection of long-term trends and cycles that allow resource managers to set realistic goals and targets by moving away from the fixed-point baseline concept to one of dynamic landscapes that anticipates and incorporates an expectation of change into decision-making.

Florida↗

USGS2017

Historical analysis of riparian vegetation change in response to shifting management objectives on the Middle Rio Grande

Riparian ecosystems are valuable to the ecological and human communities that depend on them. Over the past century, they have been subject to shifting management practices to maximize human use and ecosystem services, creating a complex relationship between water policy, management, and the natural ecosystem. This has necessitated research on the spatial and temporal dynamics of riparian vegetation change. The San Acacia Reach of the Middle Rio Grande has experienced multiple management and river flow fluctuations, resulting in threats to its riparian and aquatic ecosystems. This research uses remote sensing data, GIS, a review of management decisions, and an assessment of climate to both quantify how riparian vegetation has been altered over time and provide interpretations of the relationships between riparian change and shifting climate and management objectives. This research focused on four management phases from 1935 to 2014, each highlighting different management practices and climate-driven river patterns, providing unique opportunities to observe a direct relationship between river management, climate, and riparian response. Overall, we believe that management practices coupled with reduced surface river-flows with limited overbank flooding influenced the compositional and spatial patterns of vegetation, including possibly increasing non-native vegetation coverage. However, recent restoration efforts have begun to reduce non-native vegetation coverage.

New Mexico↗

USGS2010

Using Gambusia affinis growth and condition to assess estuarine habitat quality: A comparison of indices

Numerous indices have been used to estimate fish growth and condition however, differences in sensitivity and reliability of the methods have hampered efforts to identify appropriate indicators for routine evaluation of habitat quality in the field. We compared common morphometric (length, weight, somatic growth, length-weight condition) and biochemical (RNA:DNA ratio, relative DNA content, energy density) growth indices on the same wild-caught mosquitofish Gambusia affinis to examine their usefulness as indicators of habitat quality. A laboratory experiment was used to quantify growth rates of wild-caught G. affinis under different feeding treatments. Field studies consisted of both a short-term enclosure experiment (10 d) and weekly (7 wk) fish collections to compare growth indices in managed inflow and reference marshes during a winter/spring freshwater pulse event in upper Breton Sound, Louisiana, USA. Marshes flooded by restored freshwater pulses were capable of producing optimum growth (0.001 g DW d-1 DW = dry weight) and energetically valuable habitat (>6000 cal g-1 DW) for trophic transport. Because of differences in timing of response, morphometric and biochemical indices were generally not directly correlated, but there was clear agreement in direction and magnitude of response. The most striking difference in timing was that biochemical indices (RNA:DNA) responded more slowly to treatments than did morphometric growth indices. While gross patterns are comparable between indicators, differences in sensitivity and response time between indicators suggest that choice of indicator needs to be accounted for in interpretation and analysis of effects. ?? Inter-Research 2010, www.int-res.com.

Marine Ecology Progress Series↗

USGS2017

California Gull population growth and ecological impacts in the San Francisco Bay estuary, 1980–2016

The breeding population of California Gulls (Larus californicus) in the San Francisco Bay estuary increased from 24 individuals in 1980 to a peak of over 53,000 in 2014, then declined to 38,040 in 2016. The expansion of the breeding population may be related to the availability of suitable nesting sites in close proximity to anthropogenic food subsidies at landfills. Telemetry data indicate that California Gull movements are largely dictated by the two primary landfills in South San Francisco Bay. The large population of California Gulls has had negative effects on locally breeding shorebirds and terns, especially the Forster’s Tern (Sterna forsteri), American Avocet (Recurvirostra americana), and Western Snowy Plover (Charadrius nivosus nivosus). In South San Francisco Bay, California Gulls were responsible for 13% and 38% of egg predation events at nests of American Avocets and Snowy Plovers, respectively, and 55% and 54% of chick predation events of American Avocets and Forster’s Terns, respectively. The forced relocation of the largest gull colony (~24,000) at Pond A6 in 2010 resulted in increased survival of Forster’s Tern chicks at the adjacent colony at Pond A7 in 2011. The California Gull population and its effects on locally breeding shorebirds and terns are among the most pressing concerns for wetland managers within the San Francisco Bay estuary, especially for the South Bay Salt Pond Restoration Project. Further research is needed to evaluate the gull’s reproductive rates, habitat use, and annual movements and so to clarify its demographics and to quantify its effects on other breeding birds.

Book chapter↗

USGS2014

Guidelines for monitoring and adaptively managing restoration of Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) and steelhead ( O. mykiss ) on the Elwha River

As of January, 2014, the removal of the Elwha and Glines Canyon dams on the Elwha River, Washington, represents the largest dam decommissioning to date in the United States. Dam removal is the single largest step in meeting the goals of the Elwha River Ecosystem and Fisheries Restoration Act of 1992 (The Elwha Act) — full restoration of the Elwha River ecosystem and its native anadromous fisheries (Section 3(a)). However, there is uncertainty about project outcomes with regards to salmon populations, as well as what the ‘best’ management strategy is to fully restore each salmon stock. This uncertainty is due to the magnitude of the action, the large volumes of sediment expected to be released during dam removal, and the duration of the sediment impact period following dam removal. Our task is further complicated by the depleted state of the native salmonid populations remaining in the Elwha, including four federally listed species. This situation lends itself to a monitoring and adaptive management approach to resource management, which allows for flexibility in decision-making processes in the face of uncertain outcomes. The Elwha Monitoring and Adaptive Management (EMAM) guidelines presented in this document provide a framework for developing goals that define project success and for monitoring project implementation and responses, focused upon two federally listed salmon species — Puget Sound Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and Puget Sound steelhead (O. mykiss). The framework also should serve as a guide to help managers adaptively manage fish restoration actions during and following dam removal. The document is organized into seven sections, including an introduction (Section 1), a description of the adaptive management approach (Section 2), suggested modifications to the existing restoration strategy developed in previous Elwha River restoration documents (section 3), specific descriptions of an adaptive management framework, including establishment of goals, performance indicators, and potential adaptive management responses to monitoring information (section 4), monitoring tools and methods for use in evaluating performance and project outcomes (section 5), and brief sections on data record keeping and reporting (Section 6) and an estimated budget (section 7). The purpose of the EMAM guidelines is to propose (1) refinement of existing goals established in previous documents (e.g., Ward et al. (2008), U.S. Department of the Interior, Department of Commerce, and Lower Elwha S’Klallam Tribe (1994)); (2) an adaptive management framework, (3) specific trigger values for relevant performance indicators that guide the adaptive management approach, (4) a specific monitoring strategy for evaluating outcomes of restoration activities; (5) a data management strategy, (6) information needed for adjusting goals when observations indicate conditions are different from anticipated. When taken together, our proposed adaptive management guidelines rely upon setting goals and objectives for each species of interest, which are monitored by relevant performance indicators and measurable trigger values that define success within each phase of the project. The guidelines themselves are arranged in a hierarchy for each species of interest. The levels of this hierarchy are goals, objectives, performance indicators, decision rules, triggers, and decisions (i.e., management/policy response). The monitoring and adaptive management approach provided is based on monitoring several categories of performance indicators, each containing associated ‘trigger’ values which, when met, alters restoration activities (e.g., hatchery releases and/or strategies) through four successive restoration phases. Performance indicators proposed in these EMAM guidelines are based upon Viable Salmon Population (VSP) metrics, including abundance, productivity, distribution, and diversity (McElhany et al. 2000). Trigger values for each performance indicator are developed for four different restoration phases: Preservation, Recolonization, Local Adaptation, and Viable Natural Population. These biologically-based phases each have a set of objectives that are based on resource management scenarios, including the dam removal project itself, which change largely based on the level of active management required and the degree, if any, of resource utilization. Thus, details of prescribed management actions for each phase are based upon different needs specific to that phase. The creation of biologically-based phases is one of the major differences between our proposed EMAM guidelines and previously presented plans for Elwha River Restoration Project management. Changed largely in response to the recommendations of the most recent of three Hatchery Scientific Review Group project reviews (HSRG 2012), the goal-oriented phases replaced the previous system of temporal changes centered around the decommissioning of the dams (i.e., before, during, and after dam removal). By focusing on outcomes associated with rebuilding salmon populations instead of an engineering schedule, the guidelines are more amenable to an adaptive management framework and the ability for management actions to influence outcomes, particularly in the periods during and following dam removal. Trigger values for each performance indicator were generally developed using existing data from the Elwha River watershed, the Puget Sound region, or other Pacific Northwest rivers (i.e., elsewhere in Washington State, Oregon, British Columbia) modified to be relevant for Chinook salmon and steelhead recovery in the Elwha River. By meeting all of the trigger value levels for all performance indicators for a set amount of time within a management phase, the guidelines call for moving to the next phase. This next phase has a new set of trigger values for the same performance indicators. For example, upon moving from the Preservation phase to the Recolonization phase, the trigger value for intrinsic potential increases. Intrinsic potential is a pre-defined estimate of the total extent of available habitat within a watershed for adult and juvenile fish, specific to the target species and is therefore a performance indicator of spatial distribution. By the final Viable Natural Population phase, the entire intrinsic potential of the watershed is being occupied by the species of interest. For those cases when a performance indicator is not exceeding the target value for a particular phase after a certain time period, the trigger values provided in this document, as well as a series of exogenous variables, are explored that may help explain why the performance indicator is not being met. These exogenous variables include variables that are not part of the suite of performance indicators, such as hatchery production, harvest, habitat, and ecosystem indicators. In these cases where the program is stuck in a particular recovery phase, the situation could be caused by the selection of inappropriate trigger values or unforeseen environmental conditions. If the former, adaptive management would call for existing monitoring data to be used for modifying trigger values to an appropriate level. If one of the exogenous variables is found to be preventing the program moving to the next phase, then appropriate changes to management would be advised. For each performance indicator and many of the exogenous variables, a set of monitoring tools were proposed. Data standards were also proposed for data generated by each monitoring tool. Data management, record keeping, and reporting of monitoring and adaptive management activities and results are also outlined. Management of data from the focused monitoring program and documenting the outcomes of trigger value evaluations and associated decisions from the adaptive management approach are key components of the EMAM guidelines. Without a clear history of data generated and adaptive management decisions taken by managers, the ability to learn through adaptive management breaks down. In addition to the long time period involved, another complication is the fact that the data will likely be collected by different federal and state agencies, tribal staff, and others. Having a system of reporting developed should help alleviate potential problems. The restoration of the migration route to spawning and rearing habitats upstream of the former Glines Canyon Dam represents a great opportunity for salmon on the Olympic Peninsula. By removing two aging structures, it will be possible for all 5 species of salmon and steelhead to return to wild stretches of the Elwha River and major floodplain habitat characterized by multiple channels, as well as significant portions of numerous tributaries. Measuring the progress of restoration, from the perspective of both salmon populations and the ecosystem upon which they depend, is a great test for a collaborative team of scientists. The normally challenging conditions of working in a steep gradient, high velocity wilderness river are exacerbated by the release of millions of cubic yards of sediment that had accumulated in the reservoirs. After the first two years of the dam decommissioning process, this release has changed the ecology of the river, estuary, and nearshore habitats downstream of the dams. Our goal in developing the guidelines described is to provide a roadmap for tracking what hopefully will become a successful outcome. If successfully implemented, this information should prove useful as others begin planning for the removal, alteration, or reconstruction of dams throughout North America and elsewhere, an inevitable outcome of an aging dam infrastructure.

Washington↗

USGS2017

Integrating geographically isolated wetlands into land management decisions

Wetlands across the globe provide extensive ecosystem services. However, many wetlands – especially those surrounded by uplands, often referred to as geographically isolated wetlands (GIWs) – remain poorly protected. Protection and restoration of wetlands frequently requires information on their hydrologic connectivity to other surface waters, and their cumulative watershed‐scale effects. The integration of measurements and models can supply this information. However, the types of measurements and models that should be integrated are dependent on management questions and information compatibility. We summarize the importance of GIWs in watersheds and discuss what wetland connectivity means in both science and management contexts. We then describe the latest tools available to quantify GIW connectivity and explore crucial next steps to enhancing and integrating such tools. These advancements will ensure that appropriate tools are used in GIW decision making and maintaining the important ecosystem services that these wetlands support.

Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment↗

USGS2022

Continuous water-quality and suspended-sediment transport monitoring in San Francisco Bay, California, water years 2020–21

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has continuously monitored real-time water quality and suspended-sediment transport in San Francisco Bay (the Bay) since 1989 as part of a multi-agency effort (see “Acknowledgments” section) to address estuary management, water supply, and ecological concerns. The San Francisco Bay area is home to millions of people and biologically diverse marine and terrestrial flora and fauna. Freshwater mixes with saltwater in the Bay and is subject to riverine influences (floods, droughts, managed reservoir releases, and freshwater diversions) and marine influences (tides, waves, and effects of saltwater). Water temperature, salinity, suspended-sediment concentration (SSC), and turbidity, are used by State and Federal resources managers and are monitored at eight key locations throughout the Bay (fig. 1). Water temperature and salinity affect the density of water, which controls gravity-driven circulation patterns and stratification in the water column. Salinity indicates the relative mixing of fresh and ocean waters in the Bay and is derived from specific conductance measurements. Turbidity is a measure of light scattered from suspended particles in the water that is used to estimate suspended-sediment concentration. Suspended-sediment concentrations also are directly measured through depth-integrated water sampling. Suspended sediment affects Bay water quality in multiple ways. Suspended sediment affects phytoplankton growth by attenuating sunlight in the water column. Suspended sediment deposition on tidal marshes and intertidal mudflats helps to restore and sustain these habitats as sea level rises. Settling of suspended sediment in ports and shipping channels creates the need for more dredging. In addition, suspended sediment often carries adsorbed contaminants as it is transported in the water column, which affects the distributions and concentrations of adsorbed contaminants in the environment. Excessive concentrations of sediment-adsorbed contaminants in deposits on the bottom of the Bay can affect ecosystem health. External factors, such as tidal currents, waves, and wind can also affect water quality in the Bay. Tidal currents in the Bay change direction four times daily, and wind direction and intensity typically fluctuate on a daily cycle. Consequently, salinity, water temperature, and suspended-sediment concentration differ spatially and temporally throughout the Bay. Therefore, high-frequency measurements at multiple locations are needed to monitor these changes. Data collected at eight stations throughout the Bay are transmitted in near real-time using cellular telemetry and posted to the USGS National Water Information System (NWIS; https://waterdata.usgs.gov/usa/nwis ). The purposes of this fact sheet are to (1) provide information about the USGS San Francisco Bay water-quality monitoring network; (2) highlight various applications in which these data can be used; and (3) provide internet links to access the resulting continuous water-quality data collected by the USGS.

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USGS2014

Using scenario planning to evaluate the impacts of climate change on wildlife populations and communities in the Florida Everglades

It is uncertain how climate change will impact hydrologic drivers of wildlife population dynamics in freshwater wetlands of the Florida Everglades, or how to accommodate this uncertainty in restoration decisions. Using projections of climate scenarios for the year 2060, we evaluated how several possible futures could affect wildlife populations (wading birds, fish, alligators, native apple snails, amphibians, threatened and invasive species) across the Everglades landscape and inform planning already underway. We used data collected from prior research and monitoring to parameterize our wildlife population models. Hydrologic data were simulated using a spatially explicit, regional-scale model. Our scenario evaluations show that expected changes in temperature, precipitation, and sea level could significantly alter important ecological functions. All of our wildlife indicators were negatively affected by scenarios with less rainfall and more evapotranspiration. Under such scenarios, habitat suitability was substantially reduced for iconic animals such as wading birds and alligators. Conversely, the increased rainfall scenario benefited aquatic prey productivity and apex predators. Cascading impacts on non-native species is speculative, but increasing temperatures could increase the time between cold events that currently limit expansion and abundance of non-native fishes, amphibians, and reptiles with natural ranges in the tropics. This scenario planning framework underscored the benefits of proceeding with Everglades restoration plans that capture and clean more freshwater with the potential to mitigate rainfall loss and postpone impacts of sea level rise.

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