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Relation Between Selected Water-Quality Variables, Climatic Factors, and Lake Levels in Upper Klamath and Agency Lakes, Oregon, 1990-2006

Growth and decomposition of dense blooms of Aphanizomenon flos-aquae in Upper Klamath Lake frequently cause extreme water-quality conditions that have led to critical fishery concerns for the region, including the listing of two species of endemic suckers as endangered. The Bureau of Reclamation has asked the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to examine water-quality data collected by the Klamath Tribes for relations with lake level. This analysis evaluates a 17-year dataset (1990-2006) and updates a previous USGS analysis of a 5-year dataset (1990-94). Both univariate hypothesis testing and multivariable analyses evaluated using an information-theoretic approach revealed the same results-no one overarching factor emerged from the data. No single factor could be relegated from consideration either. The lack of statistically significant, strong correlations between water-quality conditions, lake level, and climatic factors does not necessarily show that these factors do not influence water-quality conditions; it is more likely that these conditions work in conjunction with each other to affect water quality. A few different conclusions could be drawn from the larger dataset than from the smaller dataset examined in 1996, but for the most part, the outcome was the same. Using an observational dataset that may not capture all variation in water-quality conditions (samples were collected on a two-week interval) and that has a limited range of conditions for evaluation (confined to the operation of lake) may have confounded the exploration of explanatory factors. In the end, all years experienced some variation in poor water-quality conditions, either in timing of occurrence of the poor conditions or in their duration. The dataset of 17 years simply provided 17 different patterns of lake level, cumulative degree-days, timing of the bloom onset, and poor water-quality conditions, with no overriding causal factor emerging from the variations. Water-quality conditions were evaluated for their potential to be harmful to the endangered sucker species on the basis of high-stress thresholds-water temperature values greater than 28 degrees Celsius, dissolved-oxygen concentrations less than 4 milligrams per liter, and pH values greater than 9.7. Few water temperatures were greater than 28 degrees Celsius, and dissolved-oxygen concentrations less than 4 milligrams per liter generally were recorded in mid to late summer. In contrast, high pH values were more frequent, occurring earlier in the season and parallel with growth in the algal bloom. The 10 hypotheses relating water-quality variables, lake level, and climatic factors from the earlier USGS study were tested in this analysis for the larger 1990-2006 dataset. These hypotheses proposed relations between lake level and chlorophyll-a, pH, dissolved oxygen, total phosphorus, and water temperature. As in the previous study, no evidence was found in the larger dataset for any of these relations based on a seasonal (May-October) distribution. When analyzing only the June data, the previous 5-year study did find evidence for three hypotheses relating lake level to the onset of the bloom, chlorophyll-a concentrations, and the frequency of high pH values in June. These hypotheses were not supported by the 1990-2006 dataset, but the two hypotheses related to cumulative degree-days from the previous study were: chlorophyll-a concentrations were lower and onset of the algal bloom was delayed when spring air temperatures were cooler. Other relations between water-quality variables and cumulative degree-days were not significant. In an attempt to identify interrelations among variables not detected by univariate analysis, multiple regressions were performed between lakewide measures of low dissolved-oxygen concentrations or high pH values in July and August and six physical and biological variables (peak chlorophyll-a concentrations, degree-days, water temperature, median October-May discharg

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Variability in stream chemistry in relation to urban development and biological condition in seven metropolitan areas of the United States, 1999-2004

Beginning in 1999, the U.S. Geological Survey National Water Quality Assessment Program investigated the effects of urban development on stream ecosystems in nine metropolitan study areas across the United States. In seven of these study areas, stream-chemistry samples were collected every other month for 1 year at 6 to 10 sites. Within a study area, the sites collectively represented a gradient of urban development from minimally to highly developed watersheds, based on the percentage of urban land cover; depending on study area, the land cover before urban development was either forested or agricultural. The stream-chemistry factors measured in the samples were total nitrogen, total phosphorus, chloride, and pesticide toxicity. These data were used to characterize the stream-chemistry factors in four ways (hereafter referred to as characterizations)—seasonal high-flow value, seasonal low-flow value, the median value (representing a single integrated value of the factor over the year), and the standard deviation of values (representing the variation of the factor over the year). Aquatic macroinvertebrate communities were sampled at each site to infer the biological condition of the stream based on the relative sensitivity of the community to environmental stressors. A Spearman correlation analysis was used to evaluate relations between (1) urban development and each characterization of the stream-chemistry factors and (2) the biological condition of a stream and the different characterizations of chloride and pesticide toxicity. Overall, the study areas where the land cover before urban development was primarily forested had a greater number of moderate and strong relations compared with the study areas where the land cover before urban development was primarily agriculture; this was true when urban development was correlated with the stream-chemistry factors (except chloride) and when chloride and pesticide toxicity was correlated with the biological condition. Except for primarily phosphorus in two study areas, stream-chemistry factors generally increased with urban development, and among the different characterizations, the median value typically indicated the strongest relations. The variation in stream-chemistry factors throughout the year generally increased with urban development, indicating that water quality became less consistent as watersheds were developed. In study areas with high annual snow fall, the variation in chloride concentrations throughout the year was particularly strongly related to urban development, likely a result of road salt applications during the winter. The relations of the biological condition to chloride and pesticide toxicity were calculated irrespective of urban development, but the overall results indicated that the relations were still stronger in the study areas that had been forested before urban development. The weaker relations in the study areas that had been agricultural before urban development were likely the results of biological communities having been degraded from agricultural practices in the watersheds. Collectively, these results indicated that, compared with sampling a stream at a single point in time, sampling at regular intervals during a year may provide a more representative measure of water quality, especially in the areas of high urban development where water quality fluctuated more widely between samples. Furthermore, the use of "integrated" values of stream chemistry factors may be more appropriate when assessing relations to the biological condition of a stream because the taxa composition of a biological community typically reflects the water-quality conditions over time.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Sediment loads and transport at constructed chutes along the Missouri River - Upper Hamburg Chute near Nebraska City, Nebraska, and Kansas Chute near Peru, Nebraska

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, monitored suspended sediment within constructed Missouri River chutes during March through October 2012. Chutes were constructed at selected river bends by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers to help mitigate aquatic habitat lost through the creation and maintenance of the navigation channel on the Missouri River. The restoration and development of chutes is one method for creating shallow-water habitat within the Missouri River to meet requirements established by the amended 2000 Biological Opinion. Understanding geomorphic channel-evolution processes and sediment transport is important for the design of chutes, monitoring and maintenance of existing chutes, and characterizing the habitat that the chutes provide. This report describes the methods used to monitor suspended sediment at two Missouri River chutes and presents the results of the data analysis to help understand the suspended-sediment characteristics of each chute and the effect the chutes have on the Missouri River. Upper Hamburg chute, near Nebraska City, Nebraska, and Kansas chute, near Peru, Nebraska, were selected for monitoring. At each study site, monthly discrete samples were collected from April through October in the Missouri River main-channel transects upstream from the chute inlet, downstream from the chute outlet, at the outlet (downstream transect) of both chutes, and at the inlet (upstream transect) of Kansas chute. In addition, grab samples from all chute sampling locations were collected using autosamplers. Suspended-sediment concentration (SSC) and grain-size metrics were determined for all samples (discrete and grab). Continuous water-quality monitors recorded turbidity and water temperature at 15-minute intervals at the three chute sampling locations. Two acoustic Doppler velocimeters, one within each chute, measured water depth and current velocities continuously. The depth and velocity data were used to estimate streamflow within each chute. The sampling design was developed to understand the suspended-sediment differences within each chute and between the chute and the Missouri River main channel during discrete sampling. The sampling design also allowed for site-specific surrogate relations between SSC and turbidity to be developed, which could be used to compute real-time estimates of SSC and sediment loads within the chutes. Real-time estimates of SSC and sediment loads enable a better understanding of sediment transport within the chutes during times when physical samples are not collected, including periods of high flow. High flows during the summer of 2011 resulted in substantial alterations to both studied chutes; therefore, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers repaired and modified both chutes during 2012. These unforeseen repairs and modifications within the chutes added uncertainty to the analysis because concentrations were altered by construction equipment and flow alteration. Daily suspended-sediment and suspended-silt loads were estimated based on surrogate relations with turbidity. A linear regression was used to estimate equal-width increment (EWI)-equivalent SSC from autosampler SSC before using the model-calibration dataset to determine the best-fit model for prediction of SSC from the turbidity and, in some cases, discharge. Correlation between suspended-sand concentration ( SSandC ) in EWI samples and concurrent samples collected by an autosampler was low; therefore, SSandC was excluded from development of surrogate relations because a large part of the calibration dataset was from autosamples. Instead, SSandC was estimated as SSC minus suspended-silt-clay concentration ( SSiltC ). At all sites, the best-fit models included the base-10 logarithm of concentration and turbidity, and at Kansas chute upstream, the base-10 logarithm of streamflow was also included in the best-fit models. These surrogate models were used to estimate continuous time series of SSC and SSiltC . Estimated concentrations of suspended sediment were used to estimate instantaneous and daily loads for total suspended sediment, suspended silt-clay, and suspended sand. Estimated daily suspended-sediment loads were not significantly different between upstream and downstream transects within the Kansas chute, and most individual daily loads within the chute were not significantly different between upstream and downstream transects when evaluated using overlap in daily 95-percent confidence intervals. The comparison of daily load values for upstream and downstream chute transects, as estimated from turbidity-based surrogate models for Kansas chute, documents the daily dynamic nature of sediment transport within the chute with a temporal resolution that is not practical with discrete suspended-sediment sampling alone. Comparisons of concentrations and loads from EWI samples collected from different transects within a study site resulted in few significant differences, but comparisons are limited by small sample sizes and large within-transect variability. When comparing the Missouri River upstream transect to the chute inlet transect, similar results were determined in 2012 as were determined in 2008—the chute inlet affected the amount of sediment entering the chute from the main channel. In addition, the Kansas chute is potentially affecting the sediment concentration within the Missouri River main channel, but small sample size and construction activities within the chute limit the ability to fully understand either the effect of the chute in 2012 or the effect of the chute on the main channel during a year without construction. Finally, some differences in SSC were detected between the Missouri River upstream transects and the chute downstream transects; however, the effect of the chutes on the Missouri River main-channel sediment transport was difficult to isolate because of construction activities and sampling variability.

Nebraska↗

Water-quality, biological, and habitat assessment of the Boeuf River Basin, southeastern Arkansas, 1994-96

Water-quality and biological samples were collected at several sites in the Boeuf River Basin between November 1994 and December 1996. Water-quality and benthic macroinvertebrate community samples were collected and habitat was measured once at 25 ambient monitoring sites during periods of seasonal low flow. Water-quality storm-runoff samples were collected during 11 storm events at two sites (one draining a cotton field and one draining a forested area). Water-quality samples were collected at one site during the draining of a catfish pond. Water-quality samples from the 25 ambient sites indicate that streams in the Boeuf River Basin typically are turbid and nutrient enriched in late fall during periods of relatively low flow. Most suspended solids concentrations ranged from about 50 to 200 milligrams per liter (mg/L), most total nitrogen concentrations ranged from about 1.1 to 1.8 mg/L, and most total phosphorus concentrations ranged from about 0.25 to 0.40 mg/L. Suspended solids, total nitrogen, total ammonia plus organic nitrogen, total phosphorus, and dissolved orthophosphorus concentrations from samples collected during storm events were typically higher at the cotton field site than at the forested site. Estimated annual yields of suspended solids, nitrogen, and phosphorus were substantially higher from the cotton field than from the forested area. Dissolved chloride concentrations typically were higher at the forested site than from the cotton field site. Typically, the suspended solids and nutrient concentrations from the 25 ambient sites were lower than concentrations in runoff from the cotton field but higher than concentrations in runoff from the forest area. Concentrations of sulfate, chloride, suspended solids, and some nutrients in samples from the catfish pond generally were greater than concentrations in samples from other sites. Total phosphorus, orthophosphorus, and fecal coliform bacteria concentrations from the catfish pond generally were lower than concentrations in samples from other sites. Biological condition scores calculated using macroinvertebrate samples and U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Rapid Bioassessment Protocol II indicated that most of the 25 ambient sites would be in the 'moderately impaired' category. However, substantial uncertainty exists in this rating because bioassessment data were compared with data from a reference site outside of the Boeuf River Basin sampled using different methods. Several metrics indicated that communities at most of the ambient sites are composed of more tolerant macroinvertebrates than the community at the reference site. Habitat assessments (using Rapid Bioassessment Protocol II) indicated the reference site outside the Boeuf River Basin had better habitat than the ambient sites. Physical habitat scores for the 25 ambient sites indicated that most ambient sites had poor bottom substrate cover, embeddedness values, and flow and had poor to fair habitat related to most other factors. Most habitat factors at the reference site were considered good to excellent. Part of the variation in biological condition scores was explained by physical habitat scores and concentrations of suspended solids and dissolved oxygen. However, a considerable amount of variability in biological condition scores is not explained by these factors.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

Temperature of surface waters in the conterminous United States

Temperature is probably the most important, but least discussed, parameter in determining water quality. The purpose of this report is to present the average or most probable temperatures of surface waters in the conterminous United States and to cite factors that affect and are affected by water temperature. Temperature is related, usually directly, to all the chemical, physical, and biological properties of water. The ability of water to dissolve or precipitate materials is temperature dependent, the ability of water to transport or deposit suspended material is temperature dependent, and the aquatic life of a lake or stream may thrive or die because of the water temperature. Everyone is concerned, though often unknowingly, about water temperature. The amount and type of treatment necessary for a municipal supply are temperature dependent; therefore it affects the consumer cost. Temperature determines the volume of cooling water needed for industrial processes and steampower generation. Conservation and recreation practices are affected by water temperature, and the farmers' irrigation practices and livestock production may be affected by the water temperature.

Hydrologic Atlas↗

Resource inventory of marine and estuarine fishes of the West Coast and Alaska: A checklist of North Pacific and Arctic Ocean species from Baja California to the Alaska - Yukon border

This is a comprehensive inventory of the fish species recorded in marine and estuarine waters between the Alaska–Yukon Territory border in the Beaufort Sea and Cabo San Lucas at the southern end of Baja California and out about 300 miles from shore. Our westernmost range includes the eastern Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands. In addition, we have also included our best impressions of the species that might reasonably be expected to be members of the West Coast ichthyofauna but have not yet been captured or reported within our study area. These species are marked with an asterisk (*) and have been reported (1) in the western Bering Sea; (2) off Canada’s Yukon Territory and adjacent portions of the Northwest Territories; (3) along the southern-eastern tip (non-Pacific side) of Baja California; and (4) in waters somewhat beyond 300 miles from shore. Although the term West Coast usually refers to the coast of the continuous western states, our usage herein means the entire study area. The West Coast inventory within this range encompasses fish fauna from 44 orders, 232 families, and a minimum of 1,450 species. Please note that introduced and invasive fish species are marked by double asterisks (**) and that their scientific names are highlighted in gray. We have compiled this document because the most geographically inclusive previous inventories (Jordan and Evermann 1896a, Jordan et al. 1930) are largely of historical interest and are out of date. More recent lists and compilations have either focused on relatively narrow taxonomic groups (e. g., Kramer et al. 1995, Love et al. 2002), are regional in scope (e. g., Hart 1973, Hubbs et al. 1979, Mecklenburg et al. 2002), or focus on commonly observed species (e. g., Miller and Lea 1972, Eschmeyer and Herald 1983). With the explosion of coastal research and environmental assessments, beginning in the 1970s, and more recently, renewed scientific interest in biodiversity (e.g., effects of global climate change), our own studies on related subjects regarding fish populations, assemblages, and biological habitats, suggested this was the appropriate time to update and summarize our knowledge.

Report↗

Visualization of Flow Alternatives, Lower Missouri River

Background The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (COE) 'Missouri River Master Water Control Manual' (Master Manual) review has resulted in consideration of many flow alternatives for managing the water in the river (COE, 2001; 1998a). The purpose of this report is to present flow-management alternative model results in a way that can be easily visualized and understood. This report was updated in October 2001 to focus on the specific flow-management alternatives presented by the COE in the 'Master Manual Revised Draft Environmental Impact Statement' (RDEIS; COE, 2001). The original version (February 2000) is available by clicking here. The COE, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS), Missouri River states, and Missouri River basin tribes have been participating in discussions concerning water management of the Missouri River mainstem reservoir system (MRMRS), the Missouri River Bank Stabilization and Navigation Project, and the Kansas River reservoir system since 1986. These discussions include general input to the revision of the Master Manual as well as formal consultation under Section 7 of the Endangered Species Act. In 2000, the FWS issued a Biological Opinion that prescribed changes to reservoir management on the Missouri River that were believed to be necessary to preclude jeopardy to three endangered species, the pallid sturgeon, piping plover, and interior least tern (USFWS, 2000). The combined Missouri River system is large and complex, including many reservoirs, control structures, and free-flowing reaches extending over a broad region. The ability to assess future impacts of altered management scenarios necessarily involves complex, computational models that attempt to integrate physical, chemical, biological, and economic effects. Graphical visualization of the model output is intended to improve understanding of the differences among flow-management alternatives.

Colorado, Iowa, Kansas, Missouri, Montana, Nebrask↗

San Francisco Bay/delta regional monitoring program plankton and water quality pilot study, 1993, in 1993 Annual Report, San Francisco Estuary Regional Monitoring Program for Trace Substances: San Francisco Estuary Institute

The pilot program described here is motivated by a fundamental principle of the Regional Monitoring Strategy, namely “...the development of data that will provide information on status and trends in the Estuary.” As pointed out in the Strategy, knowledge of status and trends serves two primary purposes: (1) to become aware of or anticipate deleterious conditions in the Estuary, and (2) to assess the effectiveness of management actions. This program addresses these two purposes by focusing on aquatic resources, one of the five key management issues identified by the Comprehensive Conservation and Management Plan and central to the Regional Monitoring Strategy. It also bears on at least two of the other management issues - pollutants and water use. A regional monitoring program must cover many types of resources, including pelagic and benthic channel habitat, shoal habitat, wetlands, river channels, sloughs, and small bays and harbors. This particular program centers on the pelagic channel habitat. However, because of the intimate connection between channel habitat and many or most of these other habitats, channel measurements reflect to some extent the status of and trends in other resource types as well. A primary aim of this program is to provide a high-resolution description of critical aspects of habitat quality, which can be used along with other information (1) to determine the suitability of habitat for aquatic resources; (2) to monitor responsiveness of the habitat to freshwater flow variability; and (3) to provide a context for understanding pollutant distributions. In a single transect, measurements are made throughout the water column at up to 37 stations to define physical (salinity, temperature, suspended particulate matter, and light penetration), chemical (dissolved oxygen) and biological (chlorophyll a ) characteristics that influence both chemical and biological reactions. A second aim of the program is to investigate planktonic indicators of ecosystem structure and function. Phytoplankton production is the major single source of energy for the San Francisco Bay food web. Our measurements of chlorophyll and light penetration can be used to provide an estimate of this production, and therefore the availability of food for organisms at higher trophic levels. Phytoplankton community composition at the species level, which can be a sensitive indicator of habitat change, is also a standard component of this program. Community composition data enable detection of species known to be responsible for harmful or nuisance algal blooms. In 1993, two other indicators were also evaluated, photosynthetic parameters and water column respiration . Photosynthetic parameters partially characterize the physiological state of the phytoplankton and may provide indirect evidence of nutrient deficiency or the effects of pollutants. Water column respiration serves as a simple integrated measure of organic matter metabolism by the plankton, including bacteria, phytoplankton, and microzooplankton. It therefore reflects the total supply of organic matter, whether from photosynthesis, tidal marsh efflux, point sources, or upstream in the Delta. These biological indicators therefore contain much information about the flow of energy into the food web.

California↗

Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Units program—2020 research abstracts

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) serves as the research arm of the U.S. Department of the Interior and has established a series of strategic goals that focus its efforts on serving the American people. Within the USGS, the Ecosystems Mission Area is responsible for conducting and sponsoring research that addresses the following thematic objectives under the overarching strategic goal of “Science that Supports Our Resources in Wild and Urban Spaces, and the Landscapes In-Between”: Science supporting a legacy of sustainable fish and wildlife, Social science and human components in land, water, and wildlife conservation, Trusted science supporting hard decisions on at-risk species, Science to battle costly biological threats, Providing science for managing risks and responding to extreme events, Science for preservation and restoration of iconic landscapes, and Science to support adaptation and address impacts of climate and land change. This report provides abstracts of most of the ongoing and recently completed research investigations of the USGS Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Units program. The report is organized by the following major science themes that contribute to the objectives of the USGS: Advanced Technologies Climate Science Decision Science Ecological Flows Ecosystem Services Energy Fish and Wildlife Health and Disease Human Dimensions Invasive Species Landscape Ecology Species and Habitat Management Species of Greatest Conservation Need Threatened and Endangered Species

Circular↗

Study design and methods for a wetland condition assessment on U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service fee-title lands in the Prairie Pothole Region of North Dakota, South Dakota, and Montana, USA

The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) manages wetlands and grasslands for wildlife habitat throughout the central North American Prairie Pothole Region (PPR). PPR wetlands, or potholes, are widely recognized as critical habitats for North American migratory waterfowl, waterbirds, and other wildlife. Potholes also provide other ecosystem services such as carbon sequestration, flood mitigation, filtration of pollutants, groundwater recharge, nutrient retention, and recreational opportunities. Wetland condition assessments have been completed nationally at coarse scales, but focused, regionwide assessments of the biological condition of potholes managed by the FWS are lacking. Therefore, FWS personnel require information pertaining to the biological condition and status of wetlands on FWS fee-title lands in the PPR to support management, restoration, and acquisition efforts. The biological condition of wetlands typically is reflected by their plant communities, and these communities correspond to past and current management and anthropogenic disturbances; thus, plant communities are a suitable surrogate of wetland condition. This report describes the study design, selection of sample sites, and field survey methods for a wetland condition assessment for FWS fee-title lands in the PPR of North Dakota, South Dakota, and Montana. Various spatial databases were gathered (for example, National Wetlands Inventory) to identify and assess potholes on FWS fee-title lands and to facilitate the selection of study sites. A spatially balanced, site-selection process resulted in the inclusion of 125 temporarily and 125 seasonally ponded potholes distributed across the area of interest; the first 100 for each classification were considered the primary study sites, whereas the remaining 25 were considered an oversample to replace those deemed not appropriate for sampling by field crews. Study sites were within native prairie and reseeded grasslands on FWS National Wildlife Refuges and Waterfowl Production Areas and are distributed among the primary physiographic subregions of the PPR: the Glaciated Plains, Missouri Coteau, and Prairie Coteau; a small number of sites also are within the Lake Agassiz Plain and Turtle Mountains. Site assessment protocols, vegetation survey methods, data analyses, and condition categories (for example, poor, good, very good) for the wetland assessment are based on the North Dakota Rapid Assessment Method and an Index of Plant Community Integrity developed for potholes. Results of the wetland condition assessment will aid FWS staff in assessing past and current management and help to identify priority areas for future management and acquisition.

North Dakota, South Dakota, Montana↗

Management opportunities and research priorities for Great Plains grasslands

The Great Plains Grassland Summit: Challenges and Opportunities from North to South was held April 10-11, 2018 in Denver, Colorado. The geographical focus for the summit was the entire Great Plains. The summit was designed to provide syntheses of information about key grassland topics of interest in the Great Plains; networking and learning channels for managers, researchers and stakeholders; and working sessions for sharing input and ideas about challenges and future research and management opportunities. The summit was convened to better understand Great Plains stressors and resource demands and how to manage them, and to discuss methods for improved collaboration among natural resource managers, scientists, and stakeholders. Over 200 stakeholders, who collectively were affiliated with all of the Great Plains states, attended the summit. Attendees included university researchers, government scientists, and individuals affiliated with federal and state agencies, tribes, the private sector, and non-governmental organizations (NGOs). Plenary speakers provided syntheses of current knowledge on key topics to help stage working sessions on working lands, native plants and pollinators, native wildlife and biological diversity, invasive species, wildland and prescribed fire, energy development, and weather, water, and climate. The summit steering committee designed one suite of questions that were asked of participants in each working session. This report is a digest of the input from those who attended the seven working sessions and responded to the structured questions.

Colorado, Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Misso↗

Development, Testing, and Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analyses of a Transport and Reaction Simulation Engine (TaRSE) for Spatially Distributed Modeling of Phosphorus in South Florida Peat Marsh Wetlands

Alterations to the predevelopment delivery of water and nutrients into the Everglades of southern Florida have been occurring for nearly a century. Major regional drainage projects, large-scale agricultural development, and changes to the hydrology of the Kissimmee River-Lake Okeechobee watershed have resulted in substantial phosphorus transport increases by surface waters. Excess phosphorus has accumulated in the soils of northern Everglades marshes to levels that have impaired the natural resources of the region. Regulations now limit the amount of phosphorous that enters the Everglades through an extensive network of water-control structures. This study involved the development and application of water-quality modeling components that may be applied to existing hydrologic models of southern Florida to evaluate the effects of different management scenarios. The result of this work is a spatially distributed water-quality model for phosphorus transport and cycling in wetlands. The model solves the advection-dispersion equation on an unstructured triangular mesh and incorporates a wide range of user-selectable mechanisms for phosphorus uptake and release parameters. In general, the phosphorus model contains transfers between stores; examples of stores that can be included are soil, water column (solutes), pore water, macrophytes, suspended solids (plankton), and biofilm. Examples of transfers are growth, senescence, settling, diffusion, and so forth, described with first order, second order, and Monod types of transformations. Local water depths and velocities are determined from an existing two-dimensional, overland-flow hydrologic model. The South Florida Water Management District Regional Simulation Model was used in this study. The model is applied to three case studies: intact cores of wetland soils with water, outdoor mesocosoms, and a large constructed wetland; namely, Cell 4 of Stormwater Treatment Area 1 West (STA-1W Cell 4). Different levels of complexity in the phosphorus cycling mechanisms were simulated in these case studies using different combinations of phosphorus reaction equations. Changes in water column phosphorus concentrations observed under the controlled conditions of laboratory incubations, and mesocosm studies were reproduced with model simulations. Short-term phosphorus flux rates and changes in phosphorus storages were within the range of values reported in the literature, whereas unknown rate constants were used to calibrate the model output. In STA-1W Cell 4, the dominant mechanism for phosphorus flow and transport is overland flow. Over many life cycles of the biological components, however, soils accrue and become enriched in phosphorus. Inflow total phosphorus concentrations and flow rates for the period between 1995 and 2000 were used to simulate Cell 4 phosphorus removal, outflow concentrations, and soil phosphorus enrichment over time. This full-scale application of the model successfully incorporated parameter values derived from the literature and short-term experiments, and reproduced the observed long-term outflow phosphorus concentrations and increased soil phosphorus storage within the system. A global sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of the model was performed using modern techniques such as a qualitative screening tool (Morris method) and the quantitative, variance-based, Fourier Amplitude Sensitivity Test (FAST) method. These techniques allowed an in-depth exploration of the effect of model complexity and flow velocity on model outputs. Three increasingly complex levels of possible application to southern Florida were studied corresponding to a simple soil pore-water and surface-water system (level 1), the addition of plankton (level 2), and of macrophytes (level 3). In the analysis for each complexity level, three surface-water velocities were considered that each correspond to residence times for the selected area (1-kilometer long) of 2, 10, and 20

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Adaptive management of flows from R.L. Harris Dam (Tallapoosa River, Alabama)—Stakeholder process and use of biological monitoring data for decision making

Adaptive management has been applied to problems with multiple conflicting objectives in various natural resources settings to learn how management actions affect divergent values regarding system response. Hydropower applications have only recently begun to emerge in the field, yet in the specific example reported herein, stakeholders invested in determining the best management alternatives for attainment of a suite of objectives outlined in a long-term adaptive management program below R.L. Harris Dam, a large, privately owned dam in Alabama. Stakeholders convened an objective-setting workshop to engage a governance structure and developed a decision support model to determine appropriate actions that optimized stakeholder values. The process led to implemented change in dam operation inclusive of incorporating hypothetical responses in system parameters to management. To account for the iterative loop of adaptive management, yearly monitoring of state variables that approximated many stakeholder objectives was performed from 2005 to 2016 and data collected were incorporated into the decision model. Specific analysis of fish and macroinvertebrate population responses indicated a less than satisfactory response for some stakeholders to the flow-management changes at the dam. Uncertainty regarding the best management to provide adequate hydrologic and thermal habitats for fauna and boatable days for recreationists still exists. The project led to a Federal Energy Regulatory Commission process for renewing the license to operate the dam (beginning in 2018); adaptive management could be a viable path forward to ensure stakeholder satisfaction related to new management options.

Alabama↗

Water-quality, bed-sediment, and biological data (October 2016 through September 2017) and statistical summaries of data for streams in the Clark Fork Basin, Montana

Water, bed sediment, and biota were sampled in selected streams from Butte to near Missoula, Montana, as part of a monitoring program in the Clark Fork Basin of western Montana. The sampling program was led by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, to characterize aquatic resources in the Clark Fork Basin and emphasize trace elements associated with historic mining and smelting activities. Sampling sites were on the Clark Fork and selected tributaries. Water samples were collected periodically at 20 sites from October 2016 through September 2017. Bed-sediment and biota samples were collected once at 13 sites during August 2017. This report presents the analytical results and quality-assurance data for water-quality, bed-sediment, and biota samples collected at sites from October 2016 through September 2017. Water-quality data include concentrations of selected major ions, dissolved organic carbon, turbidity, nitrogen (nitrate plus nitrite), trace elements, and suspended sediment. Seasonal daily values of turbidity were determined at four sites. Bed-sediment data include trace-element concentrations in the fine-grained (less than 0.063 millimeter) fraction. Biological data include trace-element concentrations in whole-body tissue of aquatic benthic insects. Statistical summaries of water-quality, bed-sediment, and biological data for sites in the Clark Fork Basin are provided for the period of record.

Montana↗

Research, monitoring, and evaluation of emerging issues and measures to recover the Snake River Fall Chinook Salmon ESU: January 2019 - December 2019

The portion of the Snake River fall Chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha evolutionary significant unit (ESU) that spawns upstream of Lower Granite Dam transitioned from low to high abundance during 19922019 in association with U.S. Endangered Species Act recovery efforts and other federally mandated actions. This annual report focuses on (1) numeric and habitat use responses by natural- and hatchery-origin spawners, (2) phenotypic and numeric responses by natural-origin juveniles, and (3) use of a small unmanned aerial system (sUAS) to search for fall Chinook salmon redds and carcasses. Spawners have located and used most of the available spawning habitat and that habitat is gradually approaching redd capacity. Timing of spawning and fry emergence have been relatively stable, but effects of density dependence are evident in juvenile life stages. Apparent abundance of juvenile fall Chinook salmon has increased and we noted the following responses: parr dispersal from riverine rearing habitat into Lower Granite Reservoir has become earlier; growth rate (g/d) and dispersal size of parr declined; and passage timing of smolts from the two Snake River reaches has become earlier and downstream movement rate faster. These findings coupled with stock-recruitment analyses presented in this report provide evidence for density-dependence in the Snake River reaches and in Lower Granite Reservoir that was influenced by the expansion of the recovery program. The long-term goal is to use this information in a comprehensive modeling effort to conduct action-effectiveness and uncertainty research and to inform Fish Population, Hydrosystem, Harvest, Hatchery, and Predation and Invasive Species Management Research, Monitoring, and Evaluation (RM&E) progams. In 2019, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) shifted survey efforts in the Snake River toward deepwater redd searches and fish collection for parentage-based tagging (PBT) analyses because all unmanned aerial system (UAS) activities were suspended by the Department of the Interior two weeks into the spawning season. We counted 81 deepwater redds at 17 of the 29 sites surveyed. Redd depths averaged 3.6 m. We collected a total of 123 live fall Chinook salmon from 16 unique geographic locations that spanned 55 river kilometers. Forty-six fish were recovered at Eureka Bar (rkm 307.1) and Kirby Creek (rkm 352.0), which accounted for 37% of all collected fish in 2019. Most (73 fish) post-spawned salmon were collected from early to mid-November just after peak spawning. A summary of 2019 PBT results can be found in Appendix A.1. In 2019, we PIT tagged subyearling fall Chinook salmon in both the Snake and Clearwater rivers. In the Snake River, we tagged 410 fish with 8-mm tags, 666 fish with 9-mm tags, and 1,082 fish 12-mm tags. During seining, our recapture rate of previously tagged fish was slightly higher in the lower reach at 11.4% than in the upper reach at 10.6%. In an effort to represent more of the population through tagging, we tagged fish as small as 45 mm with 8-mm tags at one site in the upper reach. This allowed us to increase the number of fish tagged in that reach by 17.7%. An additional 10.6% of collected fish could have been tagged in the lower reach had we used 8-mm tags in that reach. In the Clearwater River, we tagged 2,451 subyearlings and recaptured 260 (10.6%) fish in the river and 66 fish (48 tagged by USGS, 18 tagged by the Nez Perce Tribe) at Lower Granite Dam during October to provide information for growth estimation. Within riverine habitats, growth in both length and mass were higher for fish tagged with 8-mm tags than with 9- and 12-mm tags. Estimated growth in length and mass of subyearlings was higher in Lower Granite Reservoir than in riverine habitats. We adapted existing statistical models used to estimate abundance of steelhead and spring/summer Chinook salmon for fall Chinook salmon passing Lower Granite Dam. Run reconstruction efforts to date at Lower Granite Dam for Snake River fall Chinook salmon have provided estimates of the number of returning adults but with no measure of uncertainty about the estimates. The objective of this study was to estimate the abundance, with uncertainty, of marked (coded-wire tagged CWT or adipose clipped) and unmarked fall Chinook salmon past Lower Granite Dam for return years 20032018. Estimating uncertainty is important for informing the state-space life cycle model (Chapter 5), which incorporates both observation and process uncertainty into parameter estimates. The coefficient of variation (CV) for log- abundance was 1.0% or less in all years, whereas the CV for abundance averaged 4.2% and ranged from 1.4% to 10.4% among years. Over the past five years, we have been developing a two-stage state-space life-cycle model for naturally produced fall Chinook salmon in the Snake River basin. Initial efforts focused on generating juvenile and adult abundance estimates, with estimates of uncertainty, for informing the life-cycle model. In this report we 1) describe the statistical life-cycle model and improvements made since our last report to the Independent Scientific Advisory Board (ISAB), 2) estimate the effects of covariates on key demographic parameters, and 3) use the fitted life- cycle model to simulate population trajectories under hydrosystem actions proposed for the NOAA 2020 Biological Opinion (hereafter, the Proposed Action). Major recent advancements to the model include revised juvenile abundance estimates, the ability to estimate smolt-to-adult return rates (SAR) separately for subyearling and yearling juvenile fall Chinook salmon, and improvements in the observation model for estimating age, sex, and outmigration structure in adult returns. We examined the effect of numerous environmental, hydrosystem, and ocean covariates on key demographic parameters but only a few covariates were significant. For the adult-to-juvenile transition, we found the maximum weekly river flows during the winter egg- incubation period had a significant negative effect on the juvenile outmigrant abundance from that brood year. For subyearling outmigrants, percent spill during the summer had a significant positive effect on SAR and the mean winter PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) had a significant negative effect on SAR. For yearling outmigrants, NPGO (North Pacific Gyre Oscillation) had a significant positive effect on SAR. We used the fitted model to simulate population trajectories under the Proposed Action, and the median 10-year geometric mean abundance was 8,222 female spawners (interquartile range: 2,592 26,714). Overall, the probability of quasi- extinction (probability of falling below 50 female spawners for 4 consecutive years) was low, with only 1.6% of all simulations having a quasi-extinction probability >0.95. Although quasi-extinction probability was low, we did not assess the additional effect of climate change, which would be expected to increase quasi-extinction probability.

Idaho, Oregon, Washington↗

Chapter 6: Climate change, wildlife, and wildlife habitats in the Oregon Coast Range

Climate change is likely to have profound effects on wildlife species within the Oregon Coast Adaptation Partnership (OCAP) assessment area, although the direction and magnitude of effects are likely to vary across species. Increased mean and extreme temperatures, especially during summer, may cause shifts in plant and animal species ranges, reduce habitat for some temperature-sensitive wildlife, alter plant phenology and the timing of available food resources, and affect species interactions (e.g., predation, competition). Altered timing of precipitation, summer drought, loss of fog, increased flooding events, earlier snowmelt, and rising sea level may reduce plant productivity, increase tree mortality, shift plant species composition, and lead to reduced wildlife habitat and habitat quality for some forests, riparian areas, wetlands, meadows, estuaries, and beaches. In addition, increasing frequency and extent of wildfire and insect outbreaks may reduce the extent of late-successional forest, reduce habitat connectivity, and increase the spread of invasive species. The biggest change expected for the assessment area is an increase in area where climatic conditions favor coastal mixed forest and a large reduction in area favoring montane conifer forest. Although actual changes in forest types may not necessarily occur by the end of the 21st century, climate change may add physiological and behavioral stress to wildlife. Some wildlife species will be able to persist in place and adapt to new conditions; some may be able to migrate to find suitable habitat; and some may be greatly reduced or extirpated from the assessment area or even go extinct. Shifts in major tree and shrub species will play a major role in food, den, and cover availability for wildlife. Rising sea level will reduce low-elevation habitats along the coast. An increase in the frequency of high-severity weather events will increase frequency and magnitude of flooding, including debris flow events. Coupled with increased temperatures during summer, this may reduce or fragment important ecosystems for aquatic and semi-aquatic species. Evaluation of the vulnerabilities of nine wildlife species based on literature reviews suggests that each species has life-history attributes that can lead to resilience or vulnerability to climate change effects. Depending on long-term objectives, several broad adaptation strategies focus on protecting refugia, establishing redundant wildlife strongholds with large-scale connectivity, and promoting structural and biological complexity.

Oregon↗

Sea-Floor geology and character of Eastern Rhode Island Sound West of Gay Head, Massachusetts

Gridded multibeam bathymetry covers approximately 102 square kilometers of sea floor in eastern Rhode Island Sound west of Gay Head, Massachusetts. Although originally collected for charting purposes during National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration hydrographic survey H11922, these acoustic data and the sea-floor stations subsequently occupied to verify them (1) show the composition and terrain of the seabed, (2) provide information on sediment transport and benthic habitat, and (3) are part of an expanding series of studies that provide a fundamental framework for research and management activities (for example, windfarms and fisheries) along the Massachusetts inner continental shelf. Most of the sea floor in the study area has an undulating to faintly rippled appearance and is composed of bioturbated muddy sand, reflecting processes associated with sediment sorting and reworking. Shallower areas are composed of rippled sand and, where small fields of megaripples are present, indicate sedimentary environments characterized by processes associated with coarse bedload transport. Boulders and gravel were found on the floors of scour depressions and on top of an isolated bathymetric high where erosion has removed the Holocene marine sediments and exposed the underlying relict lag deposits of Pleistocene drift. The numerous scour depressions, which formed during storm-driven events, result in the juxtaposition of sea-floor areas with contrasting sedimentary environments and distinct gravel, sand, and muddy sand textures. This textural heterogeneity in turn creates a complex patchwork of habitats. Our observations of local variations in community structure suggest that this small-scale textural heterogeneity adds dramatically to the sound-wide benthic biological diversity.

Eastern Rhode Island Sound;West Of Gay Head;Massac↗