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Scoping decision-maker needs and science availability to support regional natural capital accounting in the U.S. Colorado River Basin

Natural capital accounting has the potential to yield important policy insights at multiple scales, but there remains a disconnect between regional-scale natural capital accounts and their use for informing policy. In this paper, we propose a roadmap that could lead to the creation of policy-relevant regional accounts, with steps split across an initial scoping phase and a subsequent development phase. We demonstrate the scoping steps in action with an application to the Colorado River Basin (“Basin”), a large watershed in the southwestern United States (U.S.) that has faced aridification and substantial high-profile tradeoffs around the use of its water and other natural resources. Drawing on prior U.S. Geological Survey science co-production efforts, we conducted a series of eight discussion sessions with 41 scientists and science representatives whose work is relevant to Basin water, riparian and riverine ecosystems, upland ecosystems and energy and minerals. We summarise participants' thoughts on key topics and economic linkages, their insights and questions of interest and their recommendations on existing scientific data sources and gaps. We evaluate the suitability of the available data for construction of System of Environmental-Economic Accounting (SEEA) Central Framework and SEEA Ecosystem Accounting accounts, including those for land, water, forests, energy and minerals and ecosystems (covering extent, condition and ecosystem services). We present a series of lessons learned during the scoping phase, as well as lessons that could be relevant for future practitioners engaging in the development phase. The information can help guide the development of timely and relevant regional-scale environmental-economic accounts in the U.S. and beyond.

Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico,

Quantifying potential effects of China’s gallium and germanium export restrictions on the U.S. economy

China’s export controls on gallium and germanium exemplify concerns regarding the reliability of supplies of mineral commodities that are essential to economic development, national security, and transition to renewable energy. This report presents a new model that quantifies the potential effects of mineral commodity supply disruptions on the U.S. economy. After calculating postdisruption equilibrium prices and quantities, a nonlinear optimization routine was used along with economic input-output tables to estimate the effects of varying Chinese net export restrictions of gallium and germanium on U.S. gross domestic product (GDP). The results indicated that a complete restriction of China’s net exports of gallium and germanium could cause the U.S. GDP to decrease by $3.1 billion (with lower and upper estimates of $1.7 billion to $8.2 billion) and $0.4 billion ($0.01 billion to $1.1 billion), respectively, if disrupted separately, and $3.4 billion ($1.7 billion to $9.0 billion) if disrupted simultaneously. The proposed model can be applied to other commodities and disruption scenarios.

Open-File Report

Selenium

Selenium (Se) was discovered in 1817 in pyrite from copper mines in Sweden. It is a trace element in Earth’s crust, with an abundance of three to seven orders of magnitude less than the major rock-forming elements. Commercial use of selenium began in the United States in 1910, when it was used as a pigment for paints, ceramic glazes, and red glass. Since that time, it has had many other economic uses—notably, in the 1930s and 1940s, when it was used in rectifiers (which change alternating current to direct current), and in the 1960s, when it began to be used in the liner of photocopier drums. In the 21st century, other compounds have replaced selenium in these older products; modern uses for selenium include energy-efficient windows that limit heat transfer and thin-film photovoltaic cells that convert solar energy into electricity. In Earth’s crust, selenium is found as selenide minerals, selenate and selenite salts, and as substitution for sulfur in sulfide minerals. It is the sulfide minerals, most commonly those in porphyry copper deposits, that provide the bulk of the selenium produced for the international commodity market. Selenium is obtained as a byproduct of copper refining and recovered from the anode slimes generated in electrolytic production of copper. Because of this, the countries that have the largest resources and (or) reserves of copper also have the largest resources and (or) reserves of selenium. Because selenium occurs naturally in Earth’s crust, its presence in air, water, and soil results from both geologic reactions and human activity. Selenium is found concentrated naturally in soils that overlie bedrock with high selenium concentrations. Selenium mining, processing, use in industrial and agricultural applications, and disposal may all contribute selenium to the environment. A well-known case of selenium contamination from agricultural practices was discovered in 1983 in the Kesterson National Wildlife Refuge in California. There, waters draining from agricultural fields created wetlands with high concentrations of dissolved selenium in the water. The selenium was taken up by aquatic wildlife and caused massive numbers of embryonic deformities and deaths. Regulatory agencies have since worked to safeguard ecological and human health by creating environmental exposure guidelines based upon selenium concentrations in water and in fish tissue. Any attempt to regulate selenium concentrations requires a delicate balance because selenium occurs naturally and is also a vital nutrient for the health of wildlife, domestic stock, and humans. Selenium is commonly added as a vitamin to animal feed, and in some regions of the United States and the world, it is added as an amendment to soils for uptake by agricultural crops. The important role of selenium in economic products, energy supply, agriculture, and health will continue for well into the future. The challenge to society is to balance the benefits of selenium use with the environmental consequences of its extraction. Increased understanding of the elemental cycle of selenium in the earth may lead to new (or unconventional) sources of selenium, the discovery of new methods of extraction, and new technologies for minimizing the transfer of selenium from rock to biota, so to protect environmental and human health.

Professional Paper

Understanding key mineral supply chain dynamics using economics-informed material flow analysis and Bayesian optimization

The low-carbon energy transition requires significant increases in production for many mineral commodities. Understanding demand, technological requirements, and prices associated with this production increase requires understanding the supply chain dynamics of many minerals simultaneously, and via a consistent framework. A generalized economics-informed material flow method, global materials modeling using Bayesian optimization, captures the market dynamics of key mineral commodities. The method relies only on a limited set of widely available historical data as input, enabling quantification of economic relationships (elasticities) for supply chain components where data are sparse, and relationships cannot be obtained via traditional statistical approaches. Building upon established material flow analysis (MFA) and economic modeling techniques, Bayesian optimization was applied to fit an economics-informed MFA model to global historical demand, supply, and price for aluminum, copper, gold, lead, nickel, silver, iron, tin, and zinc. This approach enables estimates for the evolution of ore grades, mine costs, refining charges, sector-specific demand, and scrap collection for each commodity. Economic relationships were quantified and compared with a database compiled from the literature, including 1333 values from 213 analyses across 65 publications. Discrepancies in methods and limited coverage make use of these parameters in modeling efforts difficult. This work provides a single, homogeneous, probabilistic approach to identifying economic relationships across mineral supply chains, with uncertainty quantification, a literature database for comparison, and a modeling framework in which to use them. This article met the requirements for a Gold-Gold JIE data openness badge described at http://jie.click/badges .

Journal of Industrial Ecology

Editorial for Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies

Hydrological regimes and processes show strong regional differences. While some regions are affected by extreme drought and desertification, others are under threat of increased fluvial and/or pluvial floods. Changes to hydrological systems as a consequence of natural variations and human activities are region-specific. Many of these changes have significant interactions with and implications for human life and ecosystems. Amongst others, population growth, improvements in living standards and other demographic and socio-economic trends, related changes in water and energy demands, change in land use, water abstractions and returns to the hydrological system (UNEP, 2008), introduce temporal and spatial changes to the system and cause contamination of surface and ground waters. Hydro-meteorological boundary conditions are also undergoing spatial and temporal changes. Climate change has been shown to increase temporal and spatial variations of rainfall, increase temperature and cause changes to evapotranspiration and other hydro-meteorological variables (IPCC, 2013). However, these changes are also region specific. In addition to these climate trends, (multi)-decadal oscillatory changes in climatic conditions and large variations in meteorological conditions will continue to occur.

Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies

Pressure core based onshore laboratory analysis on mechanical properties of hydrate-bearing sediments recovered during India's National Gas Hydrate Program Expedition (NGHP) 02

A solid understanding of the mechanical properties of hydrate-bearing sediments is essential for the safe and economic development of methane hydrate as an energy resource. In 2015, 104 pressure cores were collected, recovering sediments from above and within concentrated hydrate reservoirs in the Krishna-Godavari Basin, as part of India’s National Gas Hydrate Program Expedition 02 (NGHP-02). These cores provided minimally-disturbed sediment, retained at pressures and temperatures within the hydrate stability field, for the first-ever systematic triaxial test of dozens of subsections of hydrate-bearing pressure core sediments. Post-cruise testing in Japan, evaluated multiple physical and hydro-mechanical properties. Consolidated drained and undrained triaxial compression tests, uniaxial (unconfined in effective stress) compression tests, multistage consolidation and compression tests, and alternating strain-rate compression tests were also performed. Triaxial compression test results showed an increase in the strength and stiffness, as well as the positive dilatancy, with increasing hydrate saturation, supporting previous research on laboratory-formed and natural hydrate-bearing sediments. However, some strength results in this study were low compared to prior analyses of hydrate-bearing sediments. This low strength was likely caused by the host sediment’s small particle size and loose packing, and the relatively slow applied compression strain rate. Results from uniaxial compression and multi-step compression tests confirmed that pore-space hydrates produce an apparent cohesion in hydrate-bearing sediment. More severe strength loss in sediments during the initial loading for multistage compression was also attributable to the presence of hydrates. The applicability of this multistage compression test for determining in situ properties was not confirmed, but results do provide bounds on the in situ values. Finally, from the variable strain-rate tests, it was revealed that strength in hydrate-bearing sediment has a large strain-rate dependence.

Marine and Petroleum Geology

Ammonia and aquatic ecosystems – A review of global sources, biogeochemical cycling, and effects on fish

The purpose of this review is to better understand the full life cycle and influence of ammonia from an aquatic biology perspective. While ammonia has toxic properties in water and air, it also plays a central role in the biogeochemical nitrogen (N) cycle and regulates mechanisms of normal and abnormal fish physiology. Additionally, as the second most synthesized chemical on Earth, ammonia contributes economic value to many sectors, particularly fertilizers, energy storage, explosives, refrigerants, and plastics. But, with so many uses, industrial N 2 -fixation effectively doubles natural reactive N concentrations in the environment. The consequence is global, with excess fixed nitrogen driving degradation of soils, water, and air; intensifying eutrophication, biodiversity loss, and climate change; and creating health risks for humans, wildlife, and fisheries. Thus, the need for ammonia research in aquatic systems is growing. In response, we prepared this review to better understand the complexities and connectedness of environmental ammonia. Even the term “ammonia” has multiple meanings. So, we have clarified the nomenclature, identified units of measurement, and summarized methods to measure ammonia in water. We then discuss ammonia in the context of the N-cycle, review its role in fish physiology and mechanisms of toxicity, and integrate the effects of human N-fixation, which continuously expands ammonia's sources and uses. Ammonia is being developed as a carbon-free energy carrier with potential to increase reactive nitrogen in the environment. With this in mind, we review the global impacts of excess reactive nitrogen and consider the current monitoring and regulatory frameworks for ammonia. The presented synthesis illustrates the complex and interactive dynamics of ammonia as a plant nutrient, energy molecule, feedstock, waste product, contaminant, N-cycle participant, regulator of animal physiology, toxicant, and agent of environmental change. Few molecules are as influential as ammonia in the management and resilience of Earth's resources.

Science of the Total Environment

Surface-mining modeling for USGS coal assessments

The value of national coal deposits is determined for the Solid Fuel Energy Resources Assessment and Research Project through economic evaluations using hypothetical mining models. Deposits near the surface are evaluated with the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) surface-mining model, which is patterned after the standard mining techniques and infrastructures of commercial mining projects. The USGS surface-mining model uses these commercial mining project techniques as guides to develop a quantitative measurement to distinguish between potential recoverable resources and reserves by comparing total project cost and market value.

Open-File Report

A note on scrap in the 1992 U.S. input-output tables

Introduction A key concern of industrial ecology and life cycle analysis is the disposal and recycling of scrap. One might conclude that the U.S. input-output tables are appropriate tools for analyzing scrap flows. Duchin, for instance, has suggested using input-output analysis for industrial ecology, indicating that input-output economics can trace the stocks and flows of energy and other materials from extraction through production and consumption to recycling or disposal. Lave and others use input-output tables to design life cycle assessment models for studying product design, materials use, and recycling strategies, even with the knowledge that these tables suffer from a lack of comprehensive and detailed data that may never be resolved. Although input-output tables can offer general guidance about the interdependence of economic and environmental processes, data reporting by industry and the economic concepts underlying these tables pose problems for rigorous material flow examinations. This is especially true for analyzing the output of scrap and scrap flows in the United States and estimating the amount of scrap that can be recycled. To show how data reporting has affected the values of scrap in recent input-output tables, this paper focuses on metal scrap generated in manufacturing. The paper also briefly discusses scrap that is not included in the input-output tables and some economic concepts that limit the analysis of scrap flows.

Open-File Report

Submarine geothermal resources

Approximately 20% of the earth's heat loss (or 2 ?? 1012 cal/s) is released through 1% of the earth's surface area and takes the form of hydrothermal discharge from young (Pleistocene or younger) rocks adjacent to active seafloor-spreading centers and submarine volcanic areas. This amount is roughly equivalent to man's present gross energy consumption rate. A sub-seafloor geothermal reservoir, to be exploitable under future economic conditions, will have to be hot, porous, permeable, large, shallow, and near an energy-deficient, populated land mass. Furthermore, the energy must be recoverable using technology achievable at a competitive cost and numerous environmental, legal and institutional problems will have to be overcome. The highest-temperature reservoirs should be found adjacent to the zones of the seafloor extension or volcanism that are subject to high sedimentation rates. The relatively impermeable sediments reduce hydrothermal-discharge flow rates, forcing the heat to be either conducted away or released by high-temperature fluids, both of which lead to reservoir temperatures that can exceed 300??C. There is evidence that the oceanic crust is quite permeable and porous and that it was amenable to deep (3-5 km) penetration by seawater at least some time in the early stages of its evolution. Most of the heat escapes far from land, but there are notable exceptions. For example, in parts of the Gulf of California, thermal gradients in the bottom sediments exceed 1??C/m. In the coastal areas of the Gulf of California, where electricity and fresh water are at a premium, this potential resource lies in shallow water (< 200 m) and within sight of land. Other interesting areas include the Sea of Japan, the Sea of Okhotsk and the Andaman Sea along the margins of the western Pacific, the Tyrrhenian Sea west of Italy, and the southern California borderland and west flank of the Juan de Fuca Ridge off the west coast of the United States. Many questions remain to be answered about the physical and other characteristics of these systems before they can be considered a viable resource. Until several of the most promising areas are carefully defined and drilled, the problem will remain unresolved. ?? 1976.

Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research

U.S. Geological Survey global seabed mineral resources

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) provides science and data on seabed mineral resources and ecosystems, as well as on the potential hazards associated with extraction. The Nation relies on minerals for infrastructure, technology, manufacturing, and energy production. Critical minerals are essential to the economic and national security of the United States and have a supply chain vulnerable to disruption. For decades, USGS scientific innovation has contributed to the delineation of seabed mineral resources, the mechanisms of seabed mineral formation, and the environmental impacts of resource extraction. Since 1962, the USGS has also led scientific inquiries into the potential for deep sea mining. By providing impartial science on seabed minerals and their environmental setting in the deep oceans, the USGS enables decision-makers to evaluate the best practices for mineral resource development.

Fact Sheet

Double exposure and dynamic vulnerability: Assessing economic well-being, ecological change and the development of the oil and gas industry in coastal Louisiana

The oil and gas industry has been a powerful driver of economic change in coastal Louisiana for the latter half of the 20th century and into the 21st. Yet, the overall impact of the industry on the economic well-being of host communities is varied, both spatially and temporally. While the majority of Louisiana’s oil and gas production now occurs offshore, processing the extracted product is an energy-intensive undertaking requiring an expansive network of land-based infrastructure. Despite the positive economic aspects of this development, there are also potential negatives posed to coastal ecosystems and to communities located adjacent to oil and gas infrastructure. This research utilizes a double exposure framework to explore the relationship between oil and gas infrastructure development, fish and shellfish habitat, and economic well-being in Louisiana’s coastal zone from 1950 to 2010. The approach followed four main steps: (1) Developing a hazardousness of place model to identify areas of magnified risk due to the combined hazards of multiple potential exposure sites related to the extraction and processing of crude oil and natural gas; (2) developing a model of ecological functioning to measure the ability of aquatic habitat to support key fish and shellfish species; (3) utilizing an integrated community economic well-being index to assess change on a decadal timescale; and (4) analyzing selected oil-dependent communities to illustrate how change processes occurring in different energy sectors result in differential outcomes. The results suggest that, for many communities, the dependence on the oil and gas industry has increased economic well-being but also increased sensitivity to natural and human-induced changes, including fluctuating economic conditions, environmental stress, coastal habitat destruction, and increasing social and economic pressures.

Louisiana

Deposit model for volcanogenic uranium deposits

Volcanism is a major contributor to the formation of important uranium deposits both close to centers of eruption and more distal as a result of deposition of ash with leachable uranium. Hydrothermal fluids that are driven by magmatic heat proximal to some volcanic centers directly form some deposits. These fluids leach uranium from U-bearing silicic volcanic rocks and concentrate it at sites of deposition within veins, stockworks, breccias, volcaniclastic rocks, and lacustrine caldera sediments. The volcanogenic uranium deposit model presented here summarizes attributes of those deposits and follows the focus of the International Atomic Energy Agency caldera-hosted uranium deposit model. Although inferred by some to have a volcanic component to their origin, iron oxide-copper-gold deposits with economically recoverable uranium contents are not considered in this model. The International Atomic Energy Agency's tabulation of volcanogenic uranium deposits lists 100 deposits in 20 countries, with major deposits in Russia, Mongolia, and China. Collectively these deposits are estimated to contain uranium resources of approximately 500,000 tons of uranium, which amounts to 6 percent of the known global resources. Prior to the 1990s, these deposits were considered to be small (less than 10,000 tons of uranium) with relatively low to moderate grades (0.05 to 0.2 weight percent of uranium). Recent availability of information on volcanogenic uranium deposits in Asia highlighted the large resource potential of this deposit type. For example, the Streltsovskoye district in eastern Russia produced more than 100,000 tons of uranium as of 2005; with equivalent resources remaining. Known volcanogenic uranium deposits within the United States are located in Idaho, Nevada, Oregon, and Utah. These deposits produced an estimated total of 800 tons of uranium during mining from the 1950s through the 1970s and have known resources of 30,000 tons of uranium. The most recent estimate of speculative resources proposed an endowment of 200,000 tons of uranium.

Open-File Report

Variable partitioning of lithium in rhyolitic melt during decompression and ascent

The partitioning behavior of Li in magmatic systems is increasingly being investigated due to the economic importance of Li in the transition to sustainable energy resources (e.g., batteries). However, at upper crustal pressures, it remains uncertain whether Li preferentially partitions into the vapor or liquid (brine) phase or remains in the silicate melt. This complicates our ability to determine where Li resides—silicate melt, minerals, or fluid phase—upon eruption, a crucial factor for understanding its postdepositional movement and concentration into a brine or volcano-sedimentary deposit. Here, we present a novel investigation into the behavior of Li within natural evolved melts during continuous magma decompression and ascent using melt embayments (open melt inclusions). Mineral-hosted melt embayments preserve records of the evolving composition of the exterior melt, including degassing pathways and ascent timescales, when paired with appropriate diffusion coefficients. Lithium concentration profiles were measured in quartz-hosted melt embayments from the rapidly quenched eruptive phases of five rhyolitic, caldera-forming eruptions to investigate the behavior of Li during magma decompression and ascent, where vapor partitioning and ascent dynamics were previously established by investigating H 2 O and CO 2 profiles. We find that in four systems, embayments contain lower interior Li concentrations than the coerupted melt inclusions; the fifth system contains the same Li concentrations in embayments and melt inclusions. However, many of these embayments contain gradients, with 84 % preserving Li enrichment near the melt-bubble interface, as compared to their interior concentration. We interpret these characteristics to represent two distinct stages of Li partitioning during magma decompression and ascent, in contrast to existing literature that proposes only one type of partitioning behavior. The first stage is interpreted as melt depletion of Li, likely driven by partitioning into an exsolved supercritical fluid phase, supported by the strong correlation between the extent of Li depletion and Cl concentration in the melt, as well as the decompression rate. This behavior then fundamentally shifts, where Li reenriches in the melt, postulated to be driven by the unmixing of the supercritical fluid phase at shallow pressures. For the one system that did not develop Li gradients through decompression, we attribute this to the lower values of Na and Cl in the melt, potentially inhibiting the partitioning of Li into a fluid phase. Importantly, the behavior of Li during decompression is not consistent within or between volcanic centers, highlighting the need for systematic experimental investigation in variable composition melts at pressures relevant to conduit dynamics. This knowledge would improve our ability to model Li profiles to understand magma decompression, and predict where Li resides (e.g., stored in volcanic glass, gas, or crystals) upon eruption prior to any later extraction.

Economic Geology

Afghan resource assessment fed positive outlook for exploration

Crude oil, natural gas and natural gas liquids/condensate resources are important for the redevelopment of Afghanistan's infrastructure. Improved living and economic conditions in Afghanistan require increasing the availability of energy particularly by exploitation of Afghanistan's petroleum resources. The four total petroleum systems are subdivided into units with homogeneous geologic traits and exploration efforts that include sufficiently homogeneous field-size populations for resource assessment. The greatest volume of undiscovered crude oil is estimated to be in the Afghanistan Eastern Suprasalt Thrusts and Folds Assessment Unit. The greatest volume of undiscovered natural gas is estimated to be in the Afghanistan Jurassic Evaporite Basin Subsalt Carbonates Assessment Unit.

Oil & Gas Journal

Development of the copper and molybdenum industries and the Armenian economy

Production of copper and molybdenum in Armenia is examined, with special emphasis on the location of major deposits, former and proposed future centers of processing, and contribution of metals exports to the country's foreign trade revenues. Particular emphasis is placed on the impacts on these industries of the disruption of economic ties resulting from the dissolution of the USSR and an economic crisis precipitated by a major earthquake, Armenia's tension with Azerbaijan over armed conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh and surrounding areas in Azerbaijan, an economic blockade imposed by Turkey and Azerbaijan, and a consequent severe energy crisis. The paper highlights developments in the mid-1990s in copper and molybdenum and in the recent expansion of trade relations with Iran.

Post-Soviet Geography and Economics

Geothermal potential of orphan oil and gas wells

The United States is estimated to have hundreds of thousands of orphan oil and gas wells. Orphan wells are abandoned wells that are both unremediated and have no responsible operator. While traditionally considered environmental and economic liabilities, orphan oil and gas wells may offer new opportunities in sustainable geothermal energy development. This study evaluates the potential of repurposing orphan wells for geothermal energy production. We analyzed more than 1.4 million bottom-hole temperature (BHT) records from oil and gas well logs to create corrected temperature-depth profiles in a grid across the United States. Total depth values, where available, in documented orphan wells from a U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) database were then correlated to these temperature-depth profiles to estimate a corrected BHT for each orphan well. The orphan wells were then categorized as having low (<90°C), moderate (90–150°C), and high (>150°C) geothermal potential, identifying them as wells in the U.S. that could be used to access geothermal resources. In addition, repurposing these wells could contribute to broader environmental and economic goals, including well remediation, rogue methane emissions reduction, and energy production. This study provides a framework for integrating inactive well inventories with geothermal resource assessments and further highlights the potential for orphan wells to play a transformative role in expanding geothermal energy capacity in the United States.

contiguous United States

Book review: Economic geology: Principles and practice: Metals, minerals, coal and hydrocarbons—Introduction to formation and sustainable exploitation of mineral deposits

This volume, available in both hardcover and paperback, is an English translation of the fifth edition of the German language text Mineralische und Energie-Rohstoffe. The book provides an extensive overview of natural resources and societal issues associated with extracting raw materials. The comprehensive list of raw materials discussed includes metals, industrial minerals, coal, and hydrocarbons. The book is divided into four parts: (1) “Metalliferous ore deposits,” (2) “Nonmetallic minerals and rocks,” (3) “Practice of economic geology,” and (4) “Fossil energy raw materials—coal, oil, and gas.” These sections are bound by a brief introduction and an extensive list of up-to-date references as well as an index. Each chapter begins with a concise synopsis and concludes with a summary that contains useful suggestions for additional reading. All figures are grayscale images and line drawings; however, several have been grouped together and reproduced as color plates. Also included is a companion website ( www.wiley.com/go/pohl/geology ) that contains additional resources, such as digital copies of figures, tables, and an expanded index, all available for download in easy-to-use formats. Economic Geology: Principles and Practice: Metals, Minerals, Coal and Hydrocarbons—Introduction to Formation and Sustainable Exploitation of Mineral Deposits. Walter l. Pohl. 2011. Wiley-Blackwell. Pp. 663. ISBN 978-1-4443-3663-4 (paperback).

Economic Geology