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At least 703 records · Page 39Linked to original sources

USGS1995

Sea otters in the northern Pacific Ocean

About 250 years ago sea otters ( Enhydra lutris ) were distributed continuously from central Baja California, north and west along the Pacific Rim to Machatka Peninsula in Russia, and south along the Kuril Island to northern Japan (Kenyon 1969; Fig. 1a). Several hundred thousand sea otters may have occurred in the north Pacific region when commercial hunting began in the 18th century (Riedman and Estes 1990). At least two attributes of the sea otter have influenced humans, likely for as long as they have resided together along the coast of the north Pacific Ocean. First, sea otters rely on a dense fur, among the finest in the world, for insulation in the cold waters of the Pacific Ocean. The demand for sea otter fur led to their near extinction in the 19th century. The fur harvest, begun about 1740 and halted by international treaty in 1911, left surviving colonies, each likely numbering less than a few hundred animals, in California, south-central Alaska, and the Aleutian, Medney, and Kuril Islands (Fig. 1a). These individuals provided the nucleus for the recovery of the species. Today more than 100,000 sea otters occur throughout about 75% of their original range (fig. 1b). Immigration has resulted in near-complete occupation of the Aleutian and Kuril archipelagos and the Alaska peninsula. Successful translocations have resulted in viable populations in southeast Alaska, Washington, and British Columbia. Large amounts of unoccupied habitat remain along the coasts of Russia, Canada, the United States, and Mexico. The second potential source of conflict between sea otters and humans is that sea otters prey on and often limit some benthic invertebrate populations. Because some of these invertebrates are aso used by humans (Estes and VanBlaricom 1985), human perceptions about the effects of sea otter foraging on invertebrates sometimes differ. By limiting populations of herbivorous invertebrates ( e.g. , sea urchins [Echinoidea]) otters help maintain the integrity of kelp forest communities. At the same time, sea otter predation on other marine invertebrates can lead to direct competition with humans for resources. These interactions add complex dimensions to the conservation and management of sea otters, in large part because of wide-ranging social, ecological, and economic consequences of sea otter foraging. Long-term data on abundance and distribution are available for relatively few sea otter populations. Here we summarize such data from three populations: Being Island, Russia; Prince William Sound, Alaska; and Olympic Peninsula, Washington. The Bering Island population resulted from natural emigration and represents complete recovery. Prince William Sounds represents near recovery of a remnant population, whereas the Washington population was established via translocations from Alaska and is just beginning to recover. We will compare growth rates and current status among these populations. Because of its unique status and growth characteristics, the California sea otter is not treated in this article.

Book chapter↗

USGS2025

Growth rate variation in Brown Treesnakes (Boiga irregularis): An invasive species of conservation concern

Somatic growth rate is a fundamental trait that influences metabolism, lifespan and reproductive maturity and is critical for understanding population dynamics and informing management actions. Brown Treesnakes ( Boiga irregularis ) introduced to Guam are highly invasive and can reproduce year-round without discrete cohorts. We compared snake size trajectories described by the conventionally used von Bertalanffy growth function versus the Gompertz model. Using quantile regression with a regularized effect for individual snakes we modeled growth rates of 270 marked, wild snakes as a function of size. The Gompertz model explained more of the variation in growth and rendered more realistic predictions of asymptotic sizes than did the von Bertalanffy model. With the Gompertz model, growth rates were 1.05–1.16× faster in males than in females. Females reached asymptotic sizes at shorter snout-vent lengths than males. Growth rate was positively correlated with amount of precipitation, and modeling wet-dry seasonality on Guam as a sinusoidal function identified a growth peak in September—October. Effects of seasonality and precipitation, however, were minor compared to individual and sex related differences in size-adjusted growth rates. We estimated that the 50th (and 5th, 95th) growth-rate percentile males in our study population become sexually mature at an age of 33 (∞, 15) months, while females mature at 41 (∞, 18) months, where ∞ indicates that the slowest growing snakes never reach maturity. However, 50% of the snakes mature at a size below the median, and age at maturity may be as low as 10.4 (males) and 13.7 (females) months for average-sized hatchlings that grow fast. Our results have implications for the timing of management options for this species and our approach can be broadly applied to animals where repeated growth data are obtained and age is unknown.

Ecology and Evolution↗

USGS2017

Simulated juvenile salmon growth and phenology respond to altered thermal regimes and stream network shape

It is generally accepted that climate change will stress coldwater species such as Pacific salmon. However, it is unclear what aspect of altered thermal regimes (e.g., warmer winters, springs, summers, or increased variability) will have the greatest effect, and what role the spatial properties of river networks play. Thermally diverse habitats may afford protection from climate change by providing opportunities for aquatic organisms to find and use habitats with optimal conditions for growth. We hypothesized that climate‐altered thermal regimes will change growth and timing of life history events such as emergence or migration but that changes will be moderated in topologically complex stream networks where opportunities to thermoregulate are more readily available to mobile animals. Because climate change effects on populations are spatially variable and contingent upon physiological optima, assessments of risk must take a spatially explicit approach. We developed a spatially structured individual‐based model for Chinook Salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) in which movement decisions and growth were governed by water temperature and conspecific density. We evaluated growth and phenology (timing of egg emergence and smolting) under a variety of thermal regimes (each having a different minimum, rate of warming, maximum, and variability) and in three network shapes of increasing spatial complexity. Across networks, fish generally grew faster and were capable of smolting earlier in warmer scenarios where water temperatures experienced by fish were closer to optimal; however, growth decreased for some fish. We found that salmon size and smolt date responded more strongly to warmer springs and summers than to warmer winters or increased variability. Fish in the least complex network grew faster and were ready to smolt earlier than fish in the more spatially complex network shapes in the contemporary thermal regime; patterns were similar but less clear in warmer thermal regimes. Our results demonstrate that network topology may influence how fish respond to thermal landscapes, and this information will be useful for incorporating a spatiotemporal context into conservation decisions that promote long‐term viability of salmon in a changing climate.

Ecosphere↗

USGS2020

Effects of snowpack, temperature, and disease on the demography of a wild population of amphibians

Understanding the demographic consequences of interactions among pathogens, hosts, and weather conditions is critical in determining how amphibian populations respond to disease and in identifying site-specific conservation actions that can be developed to bolster persistence of amphibian populations. We investigated population dynamics in Boreal Toads ( Anaxyrus boreas ) relative to abiotic (fall temperatures and snowpack) and biotic (the abundance of another anuran host and disease) characteristics of the local environment in Wyoming, USA. We used capture–recapture data and a multistate model where state was treated as a hidden Markov process to incorporate disease state uncertainty and assess our a priori hypotheses. Our results indicated that snowpack during the coldest week of winter is more influential to toad survival, disease transition probabilities, and the population-level prevalence of the amphibian chytrid fungus ( Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis ) in the spring, than temperatures in the fall or the presence of another host. As hypothesized, apparent survival at low (i.e., <25 cm) snowpack (0.22; confidence interval [CI] = 0.15–0.31) was lower than apparent survival at high snowpack (90.65; CI = 0.50–0.78). Our findings highlight the potential for local environmental factors, like snowpack, to influence disease and host persistence, and demonstrate the ecological complexity of disease effects on population demography in natural environments. This work further emphasizes the need for improved understanding of how climate change may influence the relationships among pathogens, hosts, and their environment for wild animal populations challenged by disease.

Wyoming↗

USGS2017

Diet of the Antillean manatee (Trichechus manatus manatus) in Belize, Central America

Belize contains important habitat for Antillean manatees (Trichechus manatus manatus) and provides refuge for the highest known population density of this subspecies. As these animals face impending threats, knowledge of their dietary habits can be used to interpret resource utilization. The contents of 13 mouth, 6 digestive tract (stomach, duodenum and colon), and 124 fecal samples were microscopically examined using a modified point technique detection protocol to identify key plant species consumed by manatees at two important aggregation sites in Belize: Southern Lagoon and the Drowned Cayes. Overall, 15 different items were identified in samples from manatees in Belize. Five species of seagrasses (Halodule wrightii, Thalassia testudinum, Ruppia maritima, Syringodium filiforme, and Halophila sp.) made up the highest percentage of items. The red mangrove (Rhizophora mangle), was also identified as an important food item. Algae (Ulva sp., Chara sp., Lyngbya sp.) and invertebrates (sponges and diatoms) were also consumed. Variation in the percentage of seagrasses, other vascular plants, and algae consumption was analyzed as a 4-factor analysis of variance (ANOVA) with main effects and interactions for locality, sex, size classification, and season. While sex and season did not influence diet composition, differences for locality and size classification were observed. These results suggest that analysis of diet composition of Antillean manatees may help to determine critical habitat and use of associated food resources which, in turn can be used to aid conservation efforts in Belize.

Journal of the Marine Biological Association of th↗

USGS2009

Land crabs as key drivers in tropical coastal forest recruitment

Plant populations are regulated by a diverse assortment of abiotic and biotic factors that influence seed dispersal and viability, and seedling establishment and growth at the microsite. Rarely does one animal guild exert as significant an influence on different plant assemblages as land crabs. We review three tropical coastal ecosystems-mangroves, island maritime forests, and mainland coastal terrestrial forests-where land crabs directly influence forest composition by limiting tree establishment and recruitment. Land crabs differentially prey on seeds, propagules and seedlings along nutrient, chemical and physical environmental gradients. In all of these ecosystems, but especially mangroves, abiotic gradients are well studied, strong and influence plant species distributions. However, we suggest that crab predation has primacy over many of these environmental factors by acting as the first limiting factor of tropical tree recruitment to drive the potential structural and compositional organisation of coastal forests. We show that the influence of crabs varies relative to tidal gradient, shoreline distance, canopy position, time, season, tree species and fruiting periodicity. Crabs also facilitate forest growth and development through such activities as excavation of burrows, creation of soil mounds, aeration of soils, removal of leaf litter into burrows and creation of carbon-rich soil microhabitats. For all three systems, land crabs influence the distribution, density and size-class structure of tree populations. Indeed, crabs are among the major drivers of tree recruitment in tropical coastal forest ecosystems, and their conservation should be included in management plans of these forests. ?? 2009 Cambridge Philosophical Society.

Biological Reviews↗

USGS2026

Landscape connectivity and wildlife access to water across an international border: Barriers and opportunities for facilitating transboundary movement

Rapid global acceleration in the construction of physical barriers along international borders has greatly influenced biodiversity and animal movement. Physical barriers can fragment landscapes, hinder access to essential resources, impact long-distance migrations, and inhibit dispersal and gene flow. The effects of physical barriers on animal movement and landscape connectivity can be exacerbated in dryland environments where access to water is a limiting factor. In recent decades, the construction of border barrier infrastructure has accelerated along the international boundary between the United States and Mexico. Here, we used a landscape connectivity model to investigate the effects of barriers on wildlife access to the river in the Lower Rio Grande Valley. We used a modified omnidirectional connectivity model to compare access to the river for three large, terrestrial mammal species across three border barrier scenarios: (1) a landscape without border barriers; (2) a landscape with the existing barrier system; and (3) a potential future landscape with a continuous barrier system. The existing barrier system includes many discrete sections of barrier within tracts of the Lower Rio Grande Valley National Wildlife Refuge or on lands associated with the region's flood control system. Our results indicate that the existing border barriers can impede connectivity and wildlife access to the river in some areas, while some existing gaps between border barrier sections can serve as conduits for wildlife movement and river access. Our future scenario results show how a potential continuous border barrier system could further impede wildlife access to the river. We discuss management and landscape conservation options for enhancing wildlife access to water and riverine habitats. Collectively, our results illustrate the potential effects of border barriers on wildlife movement and access to water, providing information that can be used to better anticipate and lessen the ecological impacts of transboundary barriers.

Tamaulipas, Texas↗

USGS2014

Guild-specific responses of avian species richness to LiDAR-derived habitat heterogeneity

Ecological niche theory implies that more heterogeneous habitats have the potential to support greater biodiversity. Positive heterogeneity-diversity relationships have been found for most studies investigating animal taxa, although negative relationships also occur and the scale dependence of heterogeneity-diversity relationships is little known. We investigated multi-scale, heterogeneity-diversity relationships for bird communities in a semi-arid riparian landscape, using airborne LiDAR data to derive key measures of structural habitat complexity. Habitat heterogeneity-diversity relationships were generally positive, although the overall strength of relationships varied across avian life history guilds (R 2 range: 0.03–0.41). Best predicted were the species richness indices of cavity nesters, habitat generalists, woodland specialists, and foliage foragers. Heterogeneity-diversity relationships were also strongly scale-dependent, with strongest associations at the 200-m scale (4 ha) and weakest associations at the 50-m scale (0.25 ha). Our results underscore the value of LiDAR data for fine-grained quantification of habitat structure, as well as the need for biodiversity studies to incorporate variation among life-history guilds and to simultaneously consider multiple guild functional types (e.g. nesting, foraging, habitat). Results suggest that certain life-history guilds (foliage foragers, cavity nesters, woodland specialists) are more susceptible than others (ground foragers, ground nesters, low nesters) to experiencing declines in local species richness if functional elements of habitat heterogeneity are lost. Positive heterogeneity-diversity relationships imply that riparian conservation efforts need to not only provide high-quality riparian habitat locally, but also to provide habitat heterogeneity across multiple scales.

California;Nevada↗

USGS2018

Integrating physiological stress into the movement ecology of migratory ungulates: A spatial analysis with mule deer

Rapid climate and human land-use change may limit the ability of long-distance migratory herbivores to optimally track or “surf” high-quality forage during spring green-up. Understanding how anthropogenic and environmental stressors influence migratory movements is of critical importance because of their potential to cause a mismatch between the timing of animal movements and the emergence of high-quality forage. We measured stress hormones (fecal glucocorticoid metabolites; FGMs) to test hypotheses about the effects of high-quality forage tracking, human land use, and use of stopover sites on the physiological state of individuals along a migratory route. We collected and analyzed FGM concentrations from 399 mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) samples obtained along a 241 km migratory route in western Wyoming, USA, during spring 2015 and 2016. In support of a fitness benefit hypothesis, individuals occupying areas closer to peak forage quality had decreased FGM levels. Specifically, for every 10-day interval closer to peak forage quality, we observed a 7% decrease in FGMs. Additionally, we observed support for both an additive anthropogenic stress hypothesis and a hypothesis that stopovers act as physiological refugia, wherein individuals sampled far from stopover sites exhibited 341% higher FGM levels if in areas of low landscape integrity compared to areas of high landscape integrity. Overall, our findings indicate that the physiological state of mule deer during migration is influenced by both anthropogenic disturbances and their ability to track high-quality forage. The availability of stopovers, however, modulates physiological responses to those stressors. Thus, our results support a recent call for the prioritization of stopover locations and connectivity between those locations in conservation planning for migratory large herbivores.

Colorado, Wyoming↗

USGS2023

Advances in wildlife abundance estimation using pedigree reconstruction

The conservation and management of wildlife populations, particularly for threatened and endangered species are greatly aided with abundance, growth rate, and density measures. Traditional methods of estimating abundance and related metrics represent trade-offs in effort and precision of estimates. Pedigree reconstruction is an emerging, attractive alternate approach because its use of one-time, noninvasive sampling of individuals to infer the existence of unsampled individuals. However, advances in pedigree reconstruction could improve its utility, including forming a measure of precision for the method, establishing required spatial sampling effort for accurate estimates, ascertaining the spatial extent of abundance estimates derived from pedigree reconstruction, and assessing how population density affects the estimator's performance. Using established relationships for a stochastic, spatially explicit simulated moose ( Alces americanus ) population, pedigree reconstruction provided accurate estimates of the adult moose population size and trend. Novel bootstrapped confidence intervals performed as expected with intensive sampling but underperformed with moderate sampling efforts that could produce abundance estimates with low bias. Adult population estimates more closely reflected the total number of adults in the extant population, rather than number of adults inhabiting the area where sampling occurred. Increasing sampling effort, measured as the proportion of individuals sampled and as the proportion of a hypothetical study area, yielded similar asymptotic patterns over time. Simulations indicated a positive relationship between animal density and sampling effort required for unbiased estimates. These results indicate that pedigree reconstruction can produce accurate abundance estimates and may be particularly valuable for surveying smaller areas and low-density populations.

Ecology and Evolution↗

USGS2019

See how they ran: Morphological and functional aspects of skeletons from ancient Egyptian shrew mummies (Eulipotyphla: Soricidae: Crocidurinae)

Animals served important roles in the religious cults that proliferated during the Late (ca. 747–332 BCE) and Greco-Roman periods (332 BCE–CE 337) of ancient Egypt. One result was the interment of animal mummies in specialized necropolises distributed throughout the country. Excavation of a rock-tomb that was re-used during the Ptolemaic Period (ca. 309–30 BCE) for the interment of animal mummies at the Djehuty Site (TT 11-12) near Luxor, Egypt, was carried out in early 2018 by a Spanish-Egyptian team sponsored by the Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas, Madrid. The tomb burned sometime after deposition of the mummies, leaving behind abundant disassociated skeletal remains, primarily of avians, but also including two species of shrews (Soricidae): Crocidura olivieri (Lesson, 1827) and C. religiosa (I. Geoffroy Saint-Hilaire, 1826). To investigate possible intraspecific variation in morphology and locomotor function in these two species during the last two millennia, we measured morphological features of individual postcranial bones from the two archaeological samples and calculated indices that have been used to assess locomotor function. We compared the measurements to those from modern C. olivieri , C. religiosa , and C. suaveolens (Pallas, 1811) using principal components analysis, and we compared locomotor indices to those we calculated for the three modern species of Crocidura and to those from nine species of myosoricine shrews. Osteological features of the postcranial skeleton of conspecific Ptolemaic and modern samples of C. olivieri and C. religiosa are generally similar in character and proportion, and, skeletally, these shrews and modern C. suaveolens are consistent with soricids having a primarily ambulatory locomotor mode. One exception is the deltopectoral crest of the humerus, which appears to be longer in modern C. religiosa. Despite general conservation of form and function, Ptolemaic C. olivieri had larger body size than modern Egyptian populations and were more similar in size to modern C. olivieri nyansae , 1900 from Kenya than to modern C. olivieri olivieri from Egypt.

Luxor↗

USGS2011

Influence of landscape characteristics on migration strategies of white-tailed deer

A trade-off exists for migrating animals as to whether to migrate or remain residents. Few studies have documented relationships between landscape variables and deer migration strategies. From 2000 to 2007 we captured 267 adult female white-tailed deer ( Odocoileus virginianus ) at 7 study sites in Minnesota and South Dakota and monitored 149 individuals through ≥3 seasonal migration periods (585 deer-migration seasons). All deer classified as obligate migrators with ≥3 migrations (range 3–9 migration seasons) maintained their obligate status for the duration of the study. Multinomial logistic odds ratios from generalized estimating equations indicated that the odds of being a resident increased by 1.4 and 1.3 per 1-unit increase in forest patch density and mean area, respectively, compared to migrating deer. Odds of being an obligate migrator increased by 0.7 and 0.8 per 1-unit decrease in forest patch density and mean area, respectively, compared to resident or conditional migrating deer. Areas inhabited by resident deer were characterized by greater number of forest patches per 100 ha and larger mean forest patch area than conditional and obligate migrant areas. Odds of migrating increased by 1.1 per 1-unit increase in deer winter severity index. Migration behavior of white-tailed deer varied among regions, and land-cover and landscape characteristics provided predictive indicators of migration strategies for deer that could have important implications for conservation, metapopulation dynamics, and species management.

Journal of Mammalogy↗

USGS2012

Timing and synchrony of births in bighorn sheep: implications for reintroduction and conservation

Context: Timing (mean birthdate) and synchrony (variance around that date) of births can influence survival of young and growth in ungulate populations. Some restored populations of ungulates may not adjust these life-history characteristics to environments of release sites until several years after release, which may influence success of reintroductions. Aims: We quantified timing and synchrony of births from 2005 to 2007 in four populations of reintroduced bighorn sheep ( Ovis canadensis ) occupying two ecoregions (Central Basin and Range and Wasatch and Uinta Mountains) in Utah, USA, to investigate whether bighorns would adjust these life-history characteristics to environmental conditions of the two ecoregions. We also compared timing and synchrony of births for bighorns in their source herd (Antelope Island) with bighorns in an ecologically similar release site (Stansbury Mountains) during 2006 and 2007. Methods: We relocated female bighorns to record birthdates of young, and observed groups of collared bighorns to quantify use of elevation by those ungulates. We also calculated the initiation, rate and timing of peak green-up by ecoregion, using the normalised difference vegetation index. Key results: We quantified 274 birthdates, and although only separated by 57 km, bighorn populations occupying the Central Basin and Range Mountains gave birth an average of 29 days earlier than did those on the Wasatch and Uinta Mountains, which corresponded with the initiation of vegetation green-up. Additionally, bighorn sheep on the Stansbury Mountains (ecologically similar release site) gave birth at similar times as did bighorns on Antelope Island (source area). Conclusions: Populations of bighorn sheep that were reintroduced into adjacent ecoregions adjusted timing of births to environments and green-up of vegetation in restoration areas. Timing and synchrony of births for reintroduced bighorn sheep in an ecologically similar release site were the same as those of their source area. Implications: Consideration should be given to the adjustment of timing and synchrony of births when reintroducing bighorns, especially when animals are released into different ecoregions. Also, biologists should select release sites that are ecologically similar to source areas, thereby reducing potential negative effects of animals adjusting timing and synchrony of births to environmental conditions of restoration areas.

Wildlife Research↗

USGS2013

Intra-population variation in activity ranges, diel patterns, movement rates, and habitat use of American alligators in a subtropical estuary

Movement and habitat use patterns are fundamental components of the behaviors of mobile animals and help determine the scale and types of interactions they have with their environments. These behaviors are especially important to quantify for top predators because they can have strong effects on lower trophic levels as well as the wider ecosystem. Many studies of top predator movement and habitat use focus on general population level trends, which may overlook important intra-population variation in behaviors that now appear to be common. In an effort to better understand the prevalence of intrapopulation variation in top predator movement behaviors and the potential effects of such variation on ecosystem dynamics, we examined the movement and habitat use patterns of a population of adult American alligators ( Alligator mississippiensis ) in a subtropical estuary for nearly four years. We found that alligators exhibited divergent behaviors with respect to activity ranges, movement rates, and habitat use, and that individualized behaviors were stable over multiple years. We also found that the variations across the three behavioral metrics were correlated such that consistent behavioral types emerged, specifically more exploratory individuals and more sedentary individuals. Our study demonstrates that top predator populations can be characterized by high degrees of intra-population variation in terms of movement and habitat use behaviors that could lead to individuals filling different ecological roles in the same ecosystem. By extension, one-size-fits-all ecosystem and species-specific conservation and management strategies that do not account for potential intra-population variation in top predator behaviors may not produce the desired outcomes in all cases.

Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science↗

USGS2020

A multi-state occupancy modelling framework for robust estimation of disease prevalence in multi-tissue disease systems

Given the public health, economic and conservation implications of zoonotic diseases, their effective surveillance is of paramount importance. The traditional approach to estimating pathogen prevalence as the proportion of infected individuals in the population is biased because it fails to account for imperfect detection. A statistically robust way to reduce bias in prevalence estimates is to obtain repeated samples (or sample many tissues in multi‐tissue disease systems) and to apply statistical methods that account for imperfect detection and permit the interdependence of the infection process across multiple tissues. We developed a multi‐state occupancy modelling framework which considers two scenarios about the infection process, one where no assumptions about the dependencies among the tissues are made (general), and another where dependence among tissues is not permitted (constrained). We applied this framework to pseudorabies virus (PrV) DNA detection data obtained from whole blood; and oral, nasal and genital mucosa of 510 feral swine Sus scrofa during the years 2014–2016 in Florida, USA. The constrained model was better supported by data. PrV prevalence estimates varied among tissues and were higher than the naïve estimates, ranging from to 0.06 (CI: 0.02–0.14) in genital to 0.54 (CI: 0.14 ‐ 0.82) in nasal tissue. Probability of PrV detection ranged from 0.11 (CI: 0.06–0.18) in nasal to 0.51 (CI: 0.21–0.81) in genital tissue. PrV prevalence was not affected by the age or sex of the animal or the year of sampling, but prevalence increased as drought severity increased. The conditional probability of detecting PrV given infection in at least one tissue type within an individual was highest for nasal tissue, suggesting that nasal is the best tissue to sample for PrV surveillance if only one tissue can be sampled, at least for systems with tissue‐specific prevalence and detection probabilities similar to ours. Synthesis and applications . We focused on inferences about pathogen prevalence in multi‐tissue disease systems, dealing with both nondetection and potential dependencies among tissues in infection status. We found strong evidence of variation in both prevalence and detection probabilities among tissues. Our results emphasize the importance of sampling multiple tissues and of applying inference methods that account for imperfect detection in the surveillance of systemic diseases. The multi‐state modelling framework is broadly applicable to the surveillance of pathogens that infect multiple tissues and can be used even when the infection status of the pathogen in one tissue may depend on the infection status of the pathogen in other tissue(s).

Journal of Applied Ecology↗

USGS2015

State-space modeling to support management of brucellosis in the Yellowstone bison population

The bison ( Bison bison ) of the Yellowstone ecosystem, USA, exemplify the difficulty of conserving large mammals that migrate across the boundaries of conservation areas. Bison are infected with brucellosis ( Brucella abortus ) and their seasonal movements can expose livestock to infection. Yellowstone National Park has embarked on a program of adaptive management of bison, which requires a model that assimilates data to support management decisions. We constructed a Bayesian state-space model to reveal the influence of brucellosis on the Yellowstone bison population. A frequency-dependent model of brucellosis transmission was superior to a density-dependent model in predicting out-of-sample observations of horizontal transmission probability. A mixture model including both transmission mechanisms converged on frequency dependence. Conditional on the frequency-dependent model, brucellosis median transmission rate was 1.87 yr −1 . The median of the posterior distribution of the basic reproductive ratio ( R 0 ) was 1.75. Seroprevalence of adult females varied around 60% over two decades, but only 9.6 of 100 adult females were infectious. Brucellosis depressed recruitment; estimated population growth rate λ averaged 1.07 for an infected population and 1.11 for a healthy population. We used five-year forecasting to evaluate the ability of different actions to meet management goals relative to no action. Annually removing 200 seropositive female bison increased by 30-fold the probability of reducing seroprevalence below 40% and increased by a factor of 120 the probability of achieving a 50% reduction in transmission probability relative to no action. Annually vaccinating 200 seronegative animals increased the likelihood of a 50% reduction in transmission probability by fivefold over no action. However, including uncertainty in the ability to implement management by representing stochastic variation in the number of accessible bison dramatically reduced the probability of achieving goals using interventions relative to no action. Because the width of the posterior predictive distributions of future population states expands rapidly with increases in the forecast horizon, managers must accept high levels of uncertainty. These findings emphasize the necessity of iterative, adaptive management with relatively short-term commitment to action and frequent reevaluation in response to new data and model forecasts. We believe our approach has broad applications.

Wyoming↗

USGS2020

Space use and relative habitat selection for immature green turtles within a Caribbean marine protected area

Background A better understanding of sea turtle spatial ecology is critical for the continued conservation of imperiled sea turtles and their habitats. For resource managers to develop the most effective conservation strategies, it is especially important to examine how turtles use and select for habitats within their developmental foraging grounds. Here, we examine the space use and relative habitat selection of immature green turtles (Chelonia mydas) using acoustic telemetry within the marine protected area, Buck Island Reef National Monument (BIRNM), St. Croix, United States Virgin Islands. Results Space use by turtles was concentrated on the southern side of Buck Island, but also extended to the northeast and northwest areas of the island, as indicated by minimum convex polygons (MCPs) and 99%, 95%, and 50% kernel density estimations (KDEs). On average space use for all categories was<3 km2 with mean KDE area overlap ranging from 41.9 to 67.7%. Cumulative monthly MCPs and their proportions to full MCPs began to stabilize 3 to 6 detection months after release, respectively. Resource selection functions (RSFs) were implemented using a generalized linear mixed effects model with turtle ID as the random effect. After model selection, the accuracy of the top model was 77.3% and showed relative habitat selection values were highest at shallow depths, for areas in close proximity to seagrass, and in reef zones for both day and night, and within lagoon zones at night. The top model was also extended to predict across BIRNM at both day and night. Conclusion More traditional acoustic telemetry analyses in combination with RSFs provide novel insights into animal space use and relative resource selection. Here, we demonstrated immature green turtles within the BIRNM have small, specific home ranges and core use areas with temporally varying relative selection strengths across habitat types. We conclude the BIRNM marine protected area is providing sufficient protection for immature green turtles, however, habitat protection could be focused in both areas of high space use and in locations where high relative selection values were determined. Ultimately, the methodologies and results presented here may help to design strategies to expand habitat protection for immature green turtles across their greater distribution.

St. Croix↗

USGS2025

How accurately does eDNA reflect the spatial distribution of cold-water fish? Field validation from a temperate lake

Applications of environmental DNA (eDNA) based detection technology to evaluate the distribution of aquatic organisms are increasing; yet field validations of eDNA are important to measure accuracy in study systems. To successfully apply this technology to species conservation, it is critical to understand how both species biology and environmental conditions affect the accuracy of inference from eDNA detection data. We implemented a field assessment of the accuracy and spatial resolution of eDNA-based species distributions for a native cold-water, schooling fish, cisco Coregonus artedi , that has been reintroduced to a deep temperate lake. We leveraged a combination of acoustic telemetry, providing known spatial locations of tagged fish, and lake-wide eDNA sampling to infer their distribution in Keuka Lake, New York, USA. Sub-surface (12 m and 18 m depths) eDNA samples were collected to accommodate the diel vertical migration behaviour of this fish species. The results of this study validated the accuracy of positive eDNA detections with the distribution of tagged fish to coarse spatial scales. Yet, several fine-scale locations revealed a mismatch between eDNA and acoustic telemetry detections; consistent with rapid transport of genetic material via lake currents. Empirical measurements of lake currents using drifters found cisco eDNA detections could deviate from specimens' source locations by as much as 3.3 km at 12 m depth or 1.5 km at 18 m depth over a 24 h transport period. Our study indicates that accurate species distributions estimated from eDNA sampling in lakes may require further understanding of transport mechanisms and persistence of environmental genetic material to relate point detections to source animal locations. Integrating eDNA sampling with additional data collection of species biology and environmental conditions will increase the spatial resolution of fish distribution assessments.

New York↗