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Department of the Interior Climate Science Centers

What is a Climate Science Center? On September 14, 2009, the Secretary of the Interior signed a Secretarial Order (No. 3289) entitled, "Addressing the Impacts of Climate Change on America's Water, Land, and Other Natural and Cultural Resources." The Order effectively established the U.S. Department of the Interior (DOI) Climate Science Centers (CSCs), which will integrate DOI science and management expertise with similar contributions from our partners to provide information to support adaptation and mitigation efforts on both public and private lands, across the United States and internationally.The Southeast CSC, hosted by NC State University (NCSU), will collaborate with a number of other universities, State and Federal agencies, and nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) with interest and expertise in climate science. The primary partner for the Southeast CSC will be the Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCCs) in the Southeast, including the Appalachian, Gulf Coastal Plains and Ozarks, Gulf Coast Prairie, Peninsular Florida, and the South Atlantic. CSC collaborations are focused on common science priorities, addressing priority partner needs, minimizing redundancies in science, sharing scientific findings, and expanding understanding of climate change impacts in the Southeast.

Fact Sheet↗

Transport of nitrate in the Mississippi river in July-August 1999

Lagrangian sampling was conducted on the Mississippi River in late July through early August 1999 to test the hypothesis that nitrate (NO 3 - ) is transported conservatively in the Mississippi River. Three different approaches were pursued to test the hypothesis: (1) a mass balance for NO 3 - was evaluated for evidence of net gains and losses, (2) stable isotopes of NO 3 - were measured (δ 15 N and δ 18 O) to determine if fractionation occurred, and (3) the concentrations of dissolved gases (N 2 O, N 2 and Ar) in river water were measured and compared to theoretical equilibrium concentrations. Integrated water samples and flow measurements were obtained at 10 sites on the Mississippi River and 7 sites near the mouths of major tributaries from northern Iowa to southern Louisiana, a distance of about 2,250 river kilometers. Mass balance calculations indicate that more than 80 percent of the NO 3 - mass discharged from the Mississippi River (1,930 metric tons/day) during the study period originated in the first 500 river kilometers of the study reach. The mass balance calculations also indicate that NO 3 - was not lost from the water column upstream of Vicksburg, MS, but that there might have been some loss of NO 3 - in the lower 700 kilometers of the study reach. The stable isotope ratios of N and O (δ 15 N and δ 18 O) of NO 3 - were consistent with mixing and transport in the absence of fractionating gains or losses. The concentrations of nitrogen (N 2 ) and argon (Ar) dissolved in river water decreased in the downstream direction, approximately in equilibrium with air at increasing temperatures, giving no evidence of gains or losses of N 2 by nitrogen fixation or denitrification. Nitrous oxide (N 2 O) concentrations in the Mississippi River were approximately 26 to 200 percent of air saturation, indicating relatively low net production by combination of nitrification and denitrification. Results from this study indicate that most (>90%) of the NO 3 - that entered the Mississippi River during July-August 1999 was transported to the Gulf of Mexico.

Mississippi River↗

Tracking phosphorus and sediment sources and transport from fields and channels in Great Lakes Restoration Initiative priority watersheds

A multi-agency, integrated series of studies were initiated in 2017 under the Great Lakes Restoration Initiative (GLRI) by the U.S. Geological Survey, U.S. Forest Service, and the University of Minnesota to quantify the source, downstream travel time, and storage of particulate-bound phosphorus and sediment in agricultural tributaries to the Great Lakes. Of particular interest are contributions at the edge of field, channels, and riparian corridors. Results will be used to help identify upland and stream conservation practices that may reduce phosphorus and sediment inputs to the Great Lakes. The two study watersheds are the 50 km2 Black Creek in the Maumee River basin (Lake Erie) and the 90 km2 Plum Creek in the Lower Fox River basin (Lake Michigan). As part of other GLRI work, Black Creek and Plum Creek have existing, nested, edge-of-field studies in addition to phosphorus and sediment monitoring stations along their mainstems. Sediment-source tracking provides a direct method to quantify suspended sediment, and consequently phosphorus, sources by identifying a minimal set of properties (or fingerprint) that uniquely defines each source of sediment in the basin. This fingerprint can then be used to apportion sources of sediment from agricultural fields as well as other uplands including developed areas, forests, and pastures. These methods can also help distinguish sediment from ditches, ravines and eroding slopes, and streambanks. Multiple tracking methods are being used and adapted for best results in these watersheds, including a suite of trace elements for overall source apportionment in addition to short-term fallout radionuclides beryllium-7 (7Be) and lead-210 (210Pb) for high-flow event-based transport on fields and in stream channels. Tile drain connectivity to the surface is also of interest, especially in the Black Creek watershed. Preliminary results from the overall source apportionment from analyses of streambed sediment and monthly suspended sediment in Plum Creek indicate that the proportion attributed to different land cover varied by season and events. Further data analyses are being conducted for examining event-based pathways on individual fields, while most basin-wide sampling was monthly. Results from both watersheds will help describe the variations in transport of particulate-bound phosphorus across both steep and gentle landscapes representative of the Great Lakes basin. (this is from IP-101450)

Great Lakes↗

CO2 storage resources, reserves, and reserve growth: Toward a methodology for integrated assessment of the storage capacity of oil and gas reservoirs and saline formations

Geologically based methodologies to assess the possible volumes of subsurface CO 2 storage must apply clear and uniform definitions of resource and reserve concepts to each assessment unit (AU). Application of the current state of knowledge of geologic, hydrologic, geochemical, and geophysical parameters (contingencies) that control storage volume and injectivity allows definition of the contingent resource (CR) of storage. The parameters known with the greatest certainty are based on observations on known traps (KTs) within the AU that produced oil, gas, and water. The aggregate volume of KTs within an AU defines the most conservation volume of contingent resource. Application of the concept of reserve growth to CR volume provides a logical path for subsequent reevaluation of the total resource as knowledge of CO 2 storage processes increases during implementation of storage projects. Increased knowledge of storage performance over time will probably allow the volume of the contingent resource of storage to grow over time, although negative growth is possible.

Energy Procedia↗

Application of a stream-aquifer model to Monument Creek for development of a method to estimate transit losses for reusable water, El Paso County, Colorado

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with Colorado Springs Utilities, the Colorado Water Conservation Board, and the El Paso County Water Authority, began a study in 2004 to (1) apply a stream-aquifer model to Monument Creek, (2) use the results of the modeling to develop a transit-loss accounting program for Monument Creek, (3) revise the existing transit-loss accounting program for Fountain Creek to incorporate new water-management strategies and allow for incorporation of future changes in water-management strategies, and (4) integrate the two accounting programs into a single program with a Web-based user interface. The purpose of this report is to present the results of applying a stream-aquifer model to the Monument Creek study reach. Transit losses were estimated for reusable-water flows in Monument Creek that ranged from 1 to 200 cubic feet per second (ft 3 /s) and for native streamflows that ranged from 0 to 1,000 ft 3 /s. Transit losses were estimated for bank-storage, channel-storage, and evaporative losses. The same stream-aquifer model used in the previously completed (1988) Fountain Creek study was used in the Monument Creek study. Sixteen model nodes were established for the Monument Creek study reach, defining 15 subreaches. Channel length, aquifer length, and aquifer width for the subreaches were estimated from available topographic and geologic maps. Thickness of alluvial deposits and saturated thickness were estimated using lithologic and water-level data from about 100 wells and test holes in or near the Monument Creek study reach. Estimated average transmissivities for the subreaches ranged from 2,000 to 12,000 feet squared per day, and a uniform value of 0.20 was used for storage coefficient. Qualitative comparison of recorded and simulated streamflow at the downstream node for the calibration and verification simulations indicated that the two streamflows compared reasonably well. No adjustments were made to the model parameters. Differences between recorded and simulated streamflow volumes for all calibration and verification simulations ranged from about –8.8 to 7.5 percent; the total error for all simulations was about –0.7 percent. The model was used to estimate bank-storage losses for 10 to 15 native streamflows for each reusable-water flow of 1, 3, 5, 7, 10, 15, 20, 30, 40, 50, 100, and 200 ft 3 /s. Then the 10 to 15 bank-storage loss values were used in least-squares linear regression to estimate a relation between bank-storage loss and native streamflow for each of the 12 reusable-water flow rates. The 12 regression relations then were used to develop “look-up” tables of bank-storage loss for reusable-water flows ranging from 1 to 200 ft 3 /s (in 1-ft 3 /s increments). Additional model simulations indicated that (1) when the ratio of downstream native streamflow to upstream native streamflow was less than 1, bank-storage loss generally increased and (2) when the ratio of downstream native streamflow to upstream native streamflow was larger than 1, bank-storage loss generally decreased. These results were used to develop a bank-storage loss adjustment factor based on the ratio of native streamflow at the downstream node to native streamflow at the upstream node. The model also was used to estimate a recovery period, which is the length of time needed for the bank-storage loss to return to the stream. The recovery period was 1 day for six subreaches; 2 days for four subreaches; between 3 and 12 days for four subreaches; and 28 days for one subreach. Channel-storage losses are about 10 percent of the reusable-water flow for most of the subreaches, except for two subreaches, where the channel-storage losses are about 20 percent, and one subreach, where the losses are about 30 percent, owing to the greater channel lengths. Evaporative losses were estimated by the use of monthly pan-evaporation data and the incremental increase in stream width resulting from any reusable-water flows. Monthly pan-evaporation data were converted to a daily rate. The daily rate, when multiplied by the stream-width increase (in feet) that results from reusable-water flow and by the subreach length (in miles) gives the daily evaporative loss in cubic feet per second.

Colorado↗

Integrated monitoring and information systems for managing aquatic invasive species in a changing climate

Changes in temperature, precipitation, and other climatic drivers and sea-level rise will affect populations of existing native and non-native aquatic species and the vulnerability of aquatic environments to new invasions. Monitoring surveys provide the foundation for assessing the combined effects of climate change and invasions by providing baseline biotic and environmental conditions, although the utility of a survey depends on whether the results are quantitative or qualitative, and other design considerations. The results from a variety of monitoring programs in the United States are available in integrated biological information systems, although many include only non-native species, not native species. Besides including natives, we suggest these systems could be improved through the development of standardized methods that capture habitat and physiological requirements and link regional and national biological databases into distributed Web portals that allow drawing information from multiple sources. Combining the outputs from these biological information systems with environmental data would allow the development of ecological-niche models that predict the potential distribution or abundance of native and non-native species on the basis of current environmental conditions. Environmental projections from climate models can be used in these niche models to project changes in species distributions or abundances under altered climatic conditions and to identify potential high-risk invaders. There are, however, a number of challenges, such as uncertainties associated with projections from climate and niche models and difficulty in integrating data with different temporal and spatial granularity. Even with these uncertainties, integration of biological and environmental information systems, niche models, and climate projections would improve management of aquatic ecosystems under the dual threats of biotic invasions and climate change

Conservation Biology↗

A guide to environmental DNA extractions for non-molecular trained biologists, ecologists, and conservation scientists

Ecologists, biologists, and conservation scientists are increasingly interested in the use of environmental DNA (eDNA) data for research and potentially decision-making. While commercial DNA extraction kits are typically user-friendly and accessible, they may fail to deliver the desired results with inherently complex eDNA samples, necessitating protocol optimization or educated selection of alternative approaches. To this end, knowledge of the basic steps and principles of DNA extractions is essential, but traditional education tracks in ecology, conservation, and environmental management typically do not include in-depth training in molecular methods. The primary objective of this paper is to enable scientists with an ecological background and limited molecular training to understand the four key steps of eDNA isolations, and to use this expertise to their advantage. We describe the purpose of commonly used reagents and chemicals, point out alternatives for each key step, explain the impact of certain choices regarding isolation approaches on DNA integrity and purity, and highlight the possibility of a tailor-made “mix and match” approach. We anticipate that this paper will enable field ecologists to develop a deeper understanding of the mechanisms and chemistry underlying eDNA extractions, thus allowing them to make informed decisions regarding the best eDNA extraction method for their research goals. Our intention is not to provide comprehensive, step-by-step protocols, but to offer guiding principles while highlighting alternative solutions. Finally, we hope that this paper will act as a useful resource to support knowledge transfer and teaching.

Environmental DNA↗

Aquatic biodiversity in forests: A weak link in ecosystem services resilience

The diversity of aquatic ecosystems is being quickly reduced on many continents, warranting a closer examination of the consequences for ecological integrity and ecosystem services. Here we describe intermediate and final ecosystem services derived from aquatic biodiversity in forests. We include a summary of the factors framing the assembly of aquatic biodiversity in forests in natural systems and how they change with a variety of natural disturbances and human-derived stressors. We consider forested aquatic ecosystems as a multi-state portfolio, with diverse assemblages and life-history strategies occurring at local scales as a consequence of a mosaic of habitat conditions and past disturbances and stressors. Maintaining this multi-state portfolio of assemblages requires a broad perspective of ecosystem structure, various functions, services, and management implications relative to contemporary stressors. Because aquatic biodiversity provides multiple ecosystem services to forests, activities that compromise aquatic ecosystems and biodiversity could be an issue for maintaining forest ecosystem integrity. We illustrate these concepts with examples of aquatic biodiversity and ecosystem services in forests of northwestern North America, also known as Northeast Pacific Rim. Encouraging management planning at broad as well as local spatial scales to recognize multi-state ecosystem management goals has promise for maintaining valuable ecosystem services. Ultimately, integration of information from socio-ecological ecosystems will be needed to maintain ecosystem services derived directly and indirectly from forest aquatic biota.

California, Oregon, Washington↗

Consequences of actively managing a small Bull Trout population in a fragmented landscape

Habitat fragmentation, which affects many native salmonid species, is one of the major factors contributing to the declines in distribution and abundance of Bull Trout Salvelinus confluentus . Increasingly, managers are considering options to maintain and enhance the persistence of isolated local populations through active management strategies. Understanding the ecological consequences of such actions is a necessary step in conservation planning. We used an individual-based model to evaluate the consequences of an ongoing management program aimed at mitigating the anthropogenic fragmentation of the lower Clark Fork River in Montana. Under this program juvenile Bull Trout are trapped and transported from small, headwater source populations to Lake Pend Oreille, Idaho, for rearing, and adults are subsequently recaptured in their upstream migration and returned to the natal population for spawning. We examined one of these populations and integrated empirical estimates of demographic parameters to simulate different management scenarios where moderate ( n = 4) and high ( n = 8) numbers of age-2, age-3, or age-4 Bull Trout were removed for transport with variable return rates under both demographic stochasticity and environmental perturbations. Our results indicated the risks from removal with no returns increased substantially when removal totals and age of Bull Trout removed from the simulated population increased. Specifically, removing eight age-3 or age-4 individuals resulted in 26% and 62% reductions in average adult population size, respectively, across simulations. We found the risks of transport were not likely alleviated with low (3%) or moderate (6%) return rates, and there were considerable risks of declines for the source population even when return rates were extremely high (>12%). Our simulations indicated little risk of declines for the source population with removals of age-2 Bull Trout, and any risks were alleviated with low return rates. However, we found higher return rates were particularly beneficial in the presence of large, density-independent perturbations.

Montana↗

Gulf of Mexico Deep-Sea Coral Ecosystem Studies, 2008-2011

Most people are familiar with tropical coral reefs, located in warm, well-illuminated, shallow waters. However, corals also exist hundreds and even thousands of meters below the ocean surface, where it is cold and completely dark. These deep-sea corals, also known as cold-water corals, have become a topic of interest due to conservation concerns over the impacts of trawling, exploration for oil and gas, and climate change. Although the existence of these corals has been known since the 1800s, our understanding of their distribution, ecology, and biology is limited due to the technical difficulties of conducting deep-sea research. DISCOVRE (DIversity, Systematics, and COnnectivity of Vulnerable Reef Ecosystems) is a new U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) program focused on deep-water coral ecosystems in the Gulf of Mexico. This integrated, multidisciplinary, international effort investigates a variety of topics related to unique and fragile deep-sea coral ecosystems from the microscopic level to the ecosystem level, including components of microbiology, population genetics, paleoecology, food webs, taxonomy, community ecology, physical oceanography, and mapping.

Fact Sheet↗

Post-breeding migration and connectivity of red knots in the Western Atlantic

Red knots ( Calidris canutus rufa ) have 3 distinct nonbreeding regions: 1 in the southeastern United States and Caribbean, another on the northeast coast of Brazil in the Maranhão region, and a third along the Patagonian coasts of Chile and Argentina. Effective conservation and recovery of this threatened long-distance migrant will require knowledge of population structure, migration ecology, and abundance and distribution throughout the annual cycle. We conducted a stopover population and biogeographic assessment of knots at the Altamaha River Delta, Georgia, an important stopover area in the southeastern United States. We estimated stopover population size and stopover duration during post-breeding migration in 2011 at the Altamaha study area using mark-resight data, and we inferred nonbreeding regions for this stopover population using stable isotope ratios of carbon and nitrogen in feathers, and observations (sightings and captures) during boreal winter from across the hemisphere. With an integrated Bayesian analysis of all these data, we also estimated the number of birds in the southeastern United States and northern Brazil during boreal winter. For mark-resight analyses in Georgia, we made observations of marked individuals during 14 weeks from early August to early November 2011 and detected 814 individually marked birds. We used the Jolly-Seber mark-recapture model and estimated the southbound passage population at approximately 23,400 red knots. In ongoing studies elsewhere, isotope samples were collected from 175 (21%) of the 814 birds detected in our study, and ≥1 sighting or capture record during boreal winter was located in data repositories for 659 birds (81%). Isotopic signatures and boreal winter records indicate that the majority (82–96%) of the birds that stopped at the Altamaha Delta spend the boreal winter in the northern part of the nonbreeding range (southeast USA, Caribbean, and northern Brazil). Knots migrating to the southeastern United States, Caribbean, or Brazil remained on the Altamaha Delta for 42 days, whereas birds migrating to Tierra del Fuego remained only 21 days. Combining our estimate of the Altamaha stopover population size (23,400 birds) and the estimated proportion in the northern nonbreeding region (82–96%), we derived a minimum estimate of the number of knots in the southeastern United States, Caribbean, and northern South America during the boreal winter: approximately 20,800 knots, of which approximately 10,400 knots occupy the southeastern United States and 5,400 occupy Brazil. Our results provide additional evidence that coastal Georgia is an important migration area for red knots, and provide information about population structure and migratory connectivity that will be valuable for conservation planning.

Georgia↗

Visioning ecologically diverse and harmonious futures of Korea in Good Anthropocene

1.The Korean Demilitarized Zone (DMZ), a buffer between North and South Korea, holds profound historical, cultural and ecological significance, as well as exceptional potential for conservation and transformation. This study explores ecologically diverse and peaceful futures for the Korean Peninsula by envisioning the DMZ as a landscape for harmonious human–nature co-existence. 2.Using the Nature Futures Framework ( NFF ) and the Seeds of Good Anthropocenes ( SoGA ) approach, we co-developed four ‘Living in Harmony with Nature’ visions that reflect diverse values and meanings of nature for sustainable and well-being oriented futures in Korea. 3.These visions emphasize balancing human activities with ecological integrity, reimagining the DMZ as a space for peace, restoration and shared stewardship. They express citizens' perspectives on aspirational and inclusive futures, highlighting existing initiatives as levers for change and intersectoral and interdisciplinary collaboration as key enabling conditions. 4.This visioning process demonstrates the role of the science-policy-society interface, diverse stakeholder engagement and integration of history, culture and social cohesion. This paper reflects on the lessons from this process and discusses implications for future scenario development—particularly how a whole-of-society approach can help identify policy options and societal transformations that advance nature–people-positive futures in Korea and beyond.

Korean Peninsula↗

Proceedings of a Coastal and Marine Spatial Planning Workshop for the Western United States

Recent scientific and ocean policy assessments demonstrate that a fundamental change in our current management system is required to achieve the long-term health of our ocean, coasts, and Great Lakes in order to sustain the services and benefits they provide to society. The present (2011) species- and sector-centric way we manage these ecosystems cannot account properly for cumulative effects, sustaining multiple ecosystem services, and holistically and explicitly evaluating the tradeoffs associated with proposed alternative and multiple human uses. A transition to an ecosystem-based approach to management and conservation of coastal and marine resources is needed. Competing uses and activities such as commerce, recreation, cultural practices, energy development, conservation, and national security are increasing pressure for new and expanded resource usage in coastal marine ecosystems. Current management efforts use a sector-by-sector approach that mostly focuses on a limited range of tools and outcomes [for example, oil and gas leases, fishery management plans, and Marine Protected Areas (MPAs)]. A comprehensive, ecosystem-based, and proactive approach to planning and managing these uses and activities is needed. Further, scientific understanding and information are essential to achieve an integrated decision-making process that includes knowledge of ecosystem services, existing and possible future conditions, and potential consequences of natural and anthropogenic events. Because no single government agency has executive authority for coastal or ocean resources, conflicting objectives around competing uses abound. In recent years, regional- and state-level initiatives in Coastal and Marine Spatial Planning (CMSP) have emerged to coordinate management activities. In some respects, the components and steps of the overall CMSP process are similar to how existing ocean resources are regulated and managed. For example, the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management Regulation and Enforcement (BOEMRE) uses spatial planning exercises in State Renewable Energy Task Force meetings to identify competing and conflicting ocean uses, and to delineate areas suitable for renewable energy development. Similarly terrestrial areas such as in national parks and national wildlife refuges managed by the Department of the Interior (DOI) prepare management plans for preservation and restoration of species and habitats of concern, some of which are protected by law. The analogy to CMSP is clear - multiple users and multiple expectations, resulting in the requirement to establish spatial plans for management of different resources and different ecosystem services. A two-day workshop on December 1-2, 2010, was convened for DOI representatives and several key non-DOI participants with roles in CMSP as a step toward clarifying national perspectives and consequences of the National Ocean Policy for the West (appendix 1). Discussions helped to develop an understanding of CMSP from the federal perspective and to identify regional priorities. An overarching theme was to promote a better understanding of current and future science needs. The workshop format included briefings by key Federal agencies on their understanding of the national focus followed by discussion of regional issues, including the needs for scientific information and coordination. The workshop also explored potential science contributions by Federal agencies and others; utilizing current capabilities, data, and information systems; and provided a foundation for possible future regional workshops focusing in turn on the West Coast Region (California, Oregon, and Washington), Pacific Islands (sometimes referred to as Oceania) and Alaska. Participants were asked to share information in the following areas, recognizing that the purpose would be to learn more about the national perspective (see appendixes 2-4): Explore how the Western U.S. (Alaska, Pacific Islands, and West Coast Region) migh

Open-File Report↗

Stratigraphic section and selected semiquantitative chemistry, Meade Peak phosphatic shale member of Permian Phosphoria Formation, central part of Rasmussen Ridge, Caribou County, Idaho

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has studied the Permian Phosphoria Formation in southeastern Idaho and the entire Western U.S. Phosphate Field throughout much of the twentieth century. In response to a request by the U.S. Bureau of Land Management, a new series of resource, geological, and geoenvironmental studies was undertaken by the USGS in 1998. To accomplish these studies, the USGS has formed cooperative research relationships with two Federal agencies, the Bureau of Land Management and the U.S. Forest Service, tasked with land management and resource conservation on public lands; and with five private companies currently leasing or developing phosphate resources in southeastern Idaho. The companies are Agrium U.S. Inc. (Rasmussen Ridge mine) , Astaris LLC (Dry Valley mine), Rhodia Inc. (Wooley Valley mine, inactive), J.R. Simplot Company (Smoky Canyon mine), and Monsanto Co. (Enoch Valley mine). Some of the mineralogical research associated with this project is supported through a cooperative agreement with the Department of Geology and Geological Enginee ring, University of Idaho. Present studies consist of integrated, multidisciplinary research directed toward (1) resource and reserve estimations of phosphate in selected 7.5-minute quadrangles; (2) elemental residence, mineralogical and petrochemical characteristics; (3) mobilization and reaction pathways, transport, and fate of potentially toxic elements associated with the occurrence, development, and societal use of phosphate; (4) geophysical signatures; and (5) improving the understanding of deposit origin. Because raw data acquired during the project will require time to interpret, the data are released in open-file reports for prompt availability to other workers. Open-file reports associated with this series of studies are submitted to each of the Federal and industry cooperators for comment; however, the USGS is solely responsible for the data contained in the reports.

Idaho↗

USGS ecosystem research for the next decade: advancing discovery and application in parks and protected areas through collaboration

Ecosystems within parks and protected areas in the United States and throughout the world are being transformed at an unprecedented rate. Changes associated with natural hazards, greenhouse gas emissions, and increasing demands for water, food, land, energy and mineral resources are placing urgency on sound decision making that will help sustain our Nation’s economic and environmental well-being (Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005). In recognition of the importance of science in making these decisions, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in 2007 identified ecosystem science as one of six science directions included in a comprehensive decadal strategy (USGS 2007). The Ecosystems Mission Area was identified as essential for integrating activity within the USGS and as a key to enhanced integration with other Federal and private sector research and management organizations (Myers at al., 2007). This paper focuses on benefits to parks and protected areas from the USGS Ecosystems Mission Area plan that expanded the scope of the original 2007 science strategy, to identify the Bureau’s work in ecosystem science over the next decade (Williams et al., 2013). The plan describes a framework that encompasses both basic and applied science and allows the USGS to continue to contribute meaningfully to conservation and management issues related to the Nation’s parks and ecological resources. This framework relies on maintaining long-standing, collaborative relationships with partners in both conducting science and applying scientific results. Here we summarize the major components of the USGS Ecosystems Science Strategy, articulating the vision, goals and strategic approaches, then outlining some of the proposed actions that will ultimately prove useful to those managing parks and protected areas. We end with a discussion on the future of ecosystem science for the USGS and how it can be used to evaluate ecosystem change and the associated consequences to management of our Nation’s natural resources.

The George Wright Forum↗

Concepts: Integrating population survey data from different spatial scales, sampling methods, and species

Conservationists and managers are continually under pressure from the public, the media, and political policy makers to provide “tiger numbers,” not just for protected reserves, but also for large spatial scales, including landscapes, regions, states, nations, and even globally. Estimating the abundance of tigers within relatively small areas (e.g., protected reserves) is becoming increasingly tractable (see Chaps. 9 and 10), but doing so for larger spatial scales still presents a formidable challenge. Those who seek “tiger numbers” are often not satisfied by estimates of tiger occupancy alone, regardless of the reliability of the estimates (see Chaps. 4 and 5). As a result, wherever tiger conservation efforts are underway, either substantially or nominally, scientists and managers are frequently asked to provide putative large-scale tiger numbers based either on a total count or on an extrapolation of some sort (see Chaps. 1 and 2).

Book chapter↗

Great Lakes mallard population dynamics

Breeding mallard ( Anas platyrhynchos ) populations in the Great Lakes region (Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, USA) declined by >40% between 2000–2022 based on abundance data collected during spring aerial surveys. Mallards are an important waterfowl species in this region, where an estimated 60–80% of the mallard harvest is composed of locally banded birds. Extensive population monitoring datasets are available for mallards, presenting an opportunity to address complex questions such as estimating productivity at large spatial and temporal scales, identifying the effects of harvest on mallard demography, quantifying mechanisms for harvest compensation, and integrating multiple datasets to quantify the demographic drivers of population change. Our objective was to simultaneously examine factors affecting demographic parameters and their relative contribution to Great Lakes mallard population dynamics. We used 32 years of banding, band recovery, and aerial survey data collected for mallards from Michigan and Wisconsin to develop an integrated population model (IPM). We used age ratios at banding to estimate productivity, band recoveries from hunter-harvested birds to estimate annual survival and cause-specific mortality (i.e., harvest or non-hunting), and modeled abundance using aerial survey and demographic parameter estimates from 1991–2022. The IPM results indicated the decline in Great Lakes mallard abundance was caused by increased non-hunting mortality and a decline in productivity. Productivity varied spatially but temporally declined with the loss of Conservation Reserve Program area. Moreover, our productivity assessment provided evidence of density dependence in reproduction. Non-hunting mortality was 3.5–6.7 times and 1.3–4.2 times greater than harvest mortality for adult and juvenile female mallards, respectively, indicating environmental factors during spring and summer, not harvest, most greatly influenced annual mortality for female mallards. Our IPM reduced uncertainty in the factors affecting Great Lakes mallard population dynamics and indicated management actions that address non-hunting mortality and productivity would be most effective in increasing Great Lakes mallard abundance.

Michigan, Wisconsin↗

Disparate data streams together yield novel survival estimates of Alaska-breeding Whimbrels

Survival estimates are critical components of avian ecology. In well-intentioned efforts to maximize the utility of one's research, survival estimates often derive from data that were not originally collected for survival assessments, and such post hoc analyses may include unintentional biases. We estimated the survival of Whimbrels captured and marked at two breeding sites in Alaska using divergent data streams that in isolation were subject to methodological biases. Although both capture sites were chosen to study the migration ecology of Alaska-breeding Whimbrels, maximizing the conservation value of the data we collected was obviously desirable. We used multi-year telemetry information to infer survival from one site (Colville River) and mark-resight techniques to estimate survival from a second site (Kanuti River). At the Colville River, we could not feasibly include a control group of birds to assess potential survival effects of externally mounted transmitters, while at Kanuti River we were unable to accurately account for potential emigration events because we used resightings alone. We integrated these datasets in a Bayesian hierarchical framework, an approach that permitted insights across sites that moderated methodological biases within sites. Using telemetry enabled us to detect permanent emigration events from breeding sites in two of ten birds; results that informed estimates for birds without tracking devices. These datasets yielded point estimates of true survival of Whimbrels from Colville River equipped with solar-powered satellite transmitters that were higher (0.83) than true survival estimates of Whimbrels from Kanuti River marked with leg flags alone (0.74) or equipped with surgically implanted satellite transmitters (0.50), but the 95% credible intervals on these estimates overlapped across groups. For species like Whimbrels that are difficult and costly to study, combining information from disparate data streams allowed us to derive novel demographic estimates, an approach with clear application to other similar studies.

Alaska↗