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Status and trends of Caribbean coral reefs: 1970-2012

This it the 9th status report since the Global Coral Reef Monitoring Network (GCRMN) was founded in 1995 was the data arm of the International Coral Reef Initiative (ICRI) to document the ecological condition or corral reefs, strengthen monitoring efforts, and link existing organizations and people working on reefs worldwide. The US Government provided the initial funding to help set up a global network of coral reef workers and has continued to provide core support. Since then, the series of reports have aimed to present the current status of coral reefs of the world or particular regions, the major threats to reefs and their consequences, and any initiative undertaken under the auspices of ICRI or other bodies to arrest or reverse the decline of coral reefs. IUCN assumed responsibility for hosting the global coordination of the GCRMN in 2010 under the scientific direction of Jeremy Jackson with the following objectives: 1. Document quantitatively the global status and trends for corals, macroalgae, sea urchins, and fishes based on available data from individual scientists as well as the peer reviewed scientific literature, monitoring programs, and report. 2. Bring together regional experts in a series of workshops to involve them in data compilation, analysis, and synthesis. 3. Integrate coral reef status and trends with independent environmental, management, and socioeconomic data to better understand the primary factors responsible for coral reef decline, the possible synergies among factors that may further magnify their impacts, and how these stresses may be more effectively alleviated. Work with GCRMN partners to establish simple and practical standardized protocols for future monitoring and assessment. Disseminate information and results to help guide member state policy and actions. The overarching objective is to understand why some reefs are much healthier than others, to identify what kinds of actions have been particularly beneficial or harmful, and to vigorously communicate results in simple and straightforward terms to foster more effective conservation and management. This and subsequent reports will focus on separate biogeographic regions in a stepwise fashion and combine all of the results for a global synthesis in the coming years. We began in the wide Caribbean region because the historical data are so extensive and to refine methods of analysis before moving on to other regions. This report documents quantitative trends for Caribbean reef corals, macroalgae, sea urchins, and fishes based on data from 90 reef locations over the past 43 tears. This is the first report to combine all these disparate kinds of data in a single place to explore how the different major components of coral reef ecosystems interact on a broadly regional oceanic scale. We obtained data from more than 35,000 ecological surveys carried out by 78 principal investigators (PIs) and some 200 colleagues working in 34 countries, states, and territories throughout the wide Caribbean region. We conducted two workshops in Panama and Brisbane, Australia to bring together people who provided the data to assist in data quality control, analysis, and synthesis. The first workshop at the Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute (STRI) in the Republic of Panama 29 April to 5 May, 2012 included scientists from 18 countries and territories to verify and expand the database and to conduct exploratory analyses of status and trends. Preliminary results based on the Panama workshop were presented to the DC Marine Community and Smithsonian Institution Senate of Scientists in May 2012 and at the International Coral Reef Symposium (ICRS) and annual ICRI meeting in Cairns, Australia in July 2012. The second workshop in Brisbane, Australia in December 2012 brought together eight coral reef scientists for more detailed data analysis and organization of results for this report and subsequent publications. Subsequent presentations to solicit comments while the report was being finalized were made in 2013-2014 at the ICRI General meeting in Belize, the biennial meeting of the Association of Island Marine Laboratories in Jamaica, the Panamerican Coral Reef Congress in Merida, Mexico, the annual meeting of he Western Society of Naturalists, and numerous universities in Costa Rica, the USA and Europe. The main body of the report is in two sections. Part I provides an overview of overall status and trends and detailed analyses of the multiple factors responsible for the decline of reef corals throughout the entire wider Caribbean region. The editors are grateful to all the people who have so generously provided data and expertise, but we assume responsibility for the many statements, conclusions and recommendations and final wording of the text. Part II provides a more detailed analysis of the status and trends of coral reef ecosystems in the 32 countries, states, and territories for which we have data. The format includes maps indicating all locations sampled, a detailed table of data sources and sites surveyed, timelines of ecologically important evens, and relevant references. Each of these reports was compiled in consultation with local experts and all those who provided data and advice are listed as authors of each country report.

Report

U.S. Geological Survey Great Lakes Science Forum—Summary of remaining data and science needs and next steps

A U.S. Geological Survey-led assessment of data gaps and science needs across the Great Lakes ecosystem indicated the following: • Expanded data collection or monitoring would provide basic ecosystem, social, and public health data to manage the Great Lakes system and to develop and test models and decision support tools. • New science and advanced technologies (for example, sensors and high-performance computing capability) would improve the understanding of critical threats, such as harmful algae blooms and high-water levels. Although there is significant scientific knowledge in specific areas or for specific topics, managers could use improved models and decision support tools, strengthened by extensive data collection and developed at multiple scales, to better inform decision making in the future. Enhanced coordination of agency efforts and associated data collection across data types (for example, prey fish populations and water levels) is needed to effectively manage the Great Lakes. This report highlights the data gaps; benefits of better, more structured coordination; and areas of concern specifically related to data collection/measurement and science efforts. It summarizes and analyzes stakeholder feedback and information from review of scientific literature. Finally, the report outlines steps necessary to create an integrated Great Lakes science plan.

Open-File Report

Preliminary design study for a National Digital Seismograph Network

Recently, the National Research Council published a report by the Panel on National, Regional, and Local Seismograph Networks of the Committee on Seismology in which the principal recommendation was for the establishment of a national digital seismograph network (NDSN). The Panel Report (Bolt, 1980) addresses both the need and the scientific requirements for the new national network. The purpose of this study has been to translate the scientific requirements into an instrumentation concept for the NSDS. There are literally hundreds, perhaps thousands, of seismographs in operation within the United States. Each serves an important purpose, but most have limited objectives in time, in region, or in the types of data that are being recorded. The concept of a national network, funded and operated by the Federal Government, is based on broader objectives that include continuity of time, uniform coverage, standardization of data format and instruments, and widespread use of the data for a variety of research purposes. A national digital seismograph network will be an important data resource for many years to come; hence, its design is likely to be of interest to most seismologists. Seismologists have traditionally been involved in the development and field operation of seismic systems and thus have been familiar with both the potential value and the limitations of the data. However, in recent years of increasing technological sophistication, the development of data sstems has fallen more to system engineers, and this trend is likely to continue. One danger in this is that the engineers may misinterpret scientific objectives or subordinate them to purely technological considerations. Another risk is that the data users may misuse or misinterpret the data because they are not aware of the limitations of the data system. Perhaps the most important purpose of a design study such as this is to stimulate a dialogue between system engineers and potential data users. The NDSN system concept presented in this report is intended to serve as a point of discussion -- a strawman, if you will. It is a feasible solution to what we perceive to be the objectives of the NDSN, but it is not a unique solution. Current technology offers a variety of choices in meeting design objectives. We have examined some but not all of these choices. Although our fundamental concept of the NDSN is based on current technology, we have anticipated developments in several fields where state-of-the-art is evolving rapidly, notably satellite communications and database management. If the installation of the NDSN is delayed 5 - 10 years, we anticipate that the methods proposed to record, communicate, and manage the data may change, but it is likely that the fundamental data requirements will be the same. Therefore, in this study we have concentrated more on the types of data that will be generated at the NDSN stations and less on specific hardware that might be used in the data system. When the NDSN is budgeted, a second, more hardware-oriented design study may be needed.

Open-File Report

Documenting Arctic sea ice dynamics with Global Fiducials Program imagery

For more than 25 years, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has used the remote-sensing capabilities of United States National Imagery Systems (USNIS) to obtain high-resolution electro-optical imagery to monitor Earth’s response to global environmental change. A major focus has been monitoring sea ice behavior in the Arctic Ocean and its marginal seas. In 1997 and 1998, under the direction of the Global Fiducials Program (GFP), USNIS imagery was collected during the Surface Heat Budget of the Arctic Ocean (SHEBA) Project. In 1999, collection of USNIS imagery of six static sea ice sites in the Arctic Ocean and its marginal seas began, and the imagery was archived in the USGS-hosted Global Fiducials Library (GFL). The static sites were imaged through 2014, creating time series of geographically referenced images which scientists have used to study seasonal changes in Arctic ice over the same locations for extended time periods. In early 2009, the Central Intelligence Agency’s MEDEA Program requested that the USGS use USNIS imagery to track movements of sea ice floes during an entire Arctic summer (April through September). The goal was to improve researchers’ understanding of seasonal changes in Arctic sea ice. In order to track and repeatedly capture imagery of the same ice as it drifted across the Arctic Ocean, the USGS developed a methodology and a series of protocols to use data from telemetering drift buoys deployed at locations across the Arctic Ocean by the International Arctic Buoy Programme (IABP) to track the drift of targeted ice masses for periods that exceeded a year. Resulting time series of sea ice imagery, captured while monitoring 38 individual buoys, were archived in the GFL. In 2013 and 2014, in support of the Seasonal Ice Zone Reconnaissance Surveys (SIZRS) Program led by the University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, the USGS requested the collection of USNIS imagery of selected sites in the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas located at every degree of latitude between 70º and 80º N. along a north-south transect. This was done to track and understand the interplay among the ice, atmosphere, and ocean and what it contributes to the rapid decline in summer ice extent that has occurred in recent years. Under the auspices of the GFP, thousands of sea ice images have been collected. Many of those that pass a quality and cloud-cover screening are archived in the GFL. Of these, more than 1,750 sea ice images have been publicly released, following an editing and processing procedure that produces high-resolution degraded images, known as “literal imagery-derived products” or LIDPs. These LIDPs have been approved for free, unrestricted public distribution and scientific analysis. The LIDPs can be downloaded from the USGS Global Fiducials Library Data Access Portal (USGS GFLDAP) at https://www.usgs.gov/global-fiducials-library-data-access-portal . In addition, nonliteral imagery-derived products (nonliteral IDPs), such as metadata, maps, charts, and graphs, have also been released.

Open-File Report

A Global Lake Ecological Observatory Network (GLEON) for synthesising high-frequency sensor data for validation of deterministic ecological models

A Global Lake Ecological Observatory Network (GLEON; www.gleon.org) has formed to provide a coordinated response to the need for scientific understanding of lake processes, utilising technological advances available from autonomous sensors. The organisation embraces a grassroots approach to engage researchers from varying disciplines, sites spanning geographic and ecological gradients, and novel sensor and cyberinfrastructure to synthesise high-frequency lake data at scales ranging from local to global. The high-frequency data provide a platform to rigorously validate process- based ecological models because model simulation time steps are better aligned with sensor measurements than with lower-frequency, manual samples. Two case studies from Trout Bog, Wisconsin, USA, and Lake Rotoehu, North Island, New Zealand, are presented to demonstrate that in the past, ecological model outputs (e.g., temperature, chlorophyll) have been relatively poorly validated based on a limited number of directly comparable measurements, both in time and space. The case studies demonstrate some of the difficulties of mapping sensor measurements directly to model state variable outputs as well as the opportunities to use deviations between sensor measurements and model simulations to better inform process understanding. Well-validated ecological models provide a mechanism to extrapolate high-frequency sensor data in space and time, thereby potentially creating a fully 3-dimensional simulation of key variables of interest.

Inland Waters

Reflections on a vision for integrated research and monitoring after 15 years

In May of 1998, Owen Bricker and his co-author Michael Ruggiero introduced a conceptual design for integrating the Nation’s environmental research and monitoring programs. The Framework for Integrated Monitoring and Related Research was an organizing strategy for relating data collected by various programs, at multiple spatial and temporal scales, and by multiple science disciplines to solve complex ecological issues that individual research or monitoring programs were not designed to address. The concept nested existing intensive monitoring and research stations within national and regional surveys, remotely sensed data, and inventories to produce a collaborative program for multi-scale, multi-network integrated environmental monitoring and research. Analyses of gaps in data needed for specific issues would drive decisions on network improvements or enhancements. Data contributions to the Framework from existing networks would help indicate critical research and monitoring programs to protect during budget reductions. Significant progress has been made since 1998 on refining the Framework strategy. Methods and models for projecting scientific information across spatial and temporal scales have been improved, and a few regional pilots of multi-scale data-integration concepts have been attempted. The links between science and decision-making are also slowly improving and being incorporated into science practice. Experiments with the Framework strategy since 1998 have revealed the foundational elements essential to its successful implementation, such as defining core measurements, establishing standards of data collection and management, integrating research and long-term monitoring, and describing baseline ecological conditions. They have also shown us the remaining challenges to establishing the Framework concept: protecting and enhancing critical long-term monitoring, filling gaps in measurement methods, improving science for decision support, and integrating the disparate integrated science efforts now underway. In the 15 years since the Bricker and Ruggiero (Ecol Appl 8(2):326–329, 1998) paper challenged us with a new paradigm for bringing sound and comprehensive science to environmental decisions, the scientific community can take pride in the progress that has been made, while also taking stock of the challenges ahead for completing the Framework vision.

Aquatic Geochemistry

A Methodology to Assess the National and Regional Impacts of U.S. Wind Energy Development on Birds and Bats

This scientific investigations report describes an effort by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) that used research, monitoring data, and modeling to develop a methodology to assess both the current and future population-level consequences of wind energy development on species of birds and bats that are present in the United States during any part of their life cycle. The methodology is currently applicable to birds and bats, focuses primarily on the effects of collisions with turbines, and can be applied to any species that breeds in, migrates through, or otherwise uses any part of the United States. The methodology assesses species at the national and regional scales and identifies those species potentially in need of more detailed study, as well as those species that are likely at low risk from wind energy development. This approach is fundamentally different from existing methods focusing on impacts at individual facilities. This report supersedes USGS Scientific Investigations Report 2015–5066 by the same authors, which described a preliminary version of the methodology. Following reviews of the preliminary methodology by a panel of external experts, public comments, and additional internal review, the methodology was revised and finalized. The three components of the refined methodology described in this new report rely on publicly available fatality information, population estimates, species range maps, turbine location data, biological characteristics of species, and population models. First, three metrics are combined to determine direct and indirect relative effects from wind energy facilities to generate a list of species scores. Second, a generic population model estimates the expected change in population trend caused by the additive mortality from collisions with wind turbines. Third, the methodology combines an estimate of observed fatalities and an estimate of potential biological removal to assess the possibility of a decrease in population size. The latter two components are quantitative. In a test case, the methodology was used to analyze data for six bird species and three bat species. Components of the methodology are based on simplifying assumptions and require information that, for many species, may be sparse or unreliable or may require further study. These assumptions should be carefully considered when using outputs from the methodology. Increases in the quality of data for fatalities from collisions with wind turbines, species distributions, abundance, and demography will likely improve results for uses of the methodology. The methodology’s design identifies and prioritizes a subset of the bird and bat species that may experience population-level impacts from collisions with wind turbines, both currently and from future wind energy development in the United States. Results of an assessment using this methodology could focus future research to improve our understanding of those impacts and to guide avoidance and minimization strategies. In addition, this methodology can be used to identify species for more intensive demographic modeling or to highlight those species that may not require any additional research because effects of wind energy development on their populations are projected to be small. The effects of wind energy facilities on nine unidentified species used in the test case described in this report have not been assessed. Their data were simply used to show the application of the methodology to real-world data and the types of outputs it would produce.

Scientific Investigations Report

Estimated average annualized tsunami losses for the United States

Tsunami hazards are substantial threats to coastal communities across the United States (U.S.) and its territories. U.S. states and territories collaborate through the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP) to develop their own tsunami-hazard information for outreach and evacuation planning. An effort to curate this tsunami-hazard information to support comprehensive risk analysis at the national level has not yet been completed. In support of this effort, the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) collaborated with the NTHMP, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) starting in 2023. This collaboration included the collection and analysis of existing tsunami hazard data and methods in the U.S. Tsunami subject matter experts identified and selected scientifically defensible methods for estimating the risks to buildings and populations in coastal communities. These efforts may support decision making regarding resilience policies, priorities, strategies and funding levels. Tsunamis can be triggered by earthquakes, subaerial or submarine landslides, volcanic eruptions, glacial calving, near-earth objects, weather or other events. These events can cause severe destruction, injuries, and loss of life due to powerful currents and flooding. Tsunamis pose a substantial threat to the western United States and all U.S. territories, as described below. ■ Hawaii is threatened by distant tsunamis due to its central location in the Pacific Ocean basin and has a history of local events. ■ Alaska, particularly the Aleutian Islands, faces local tsunami threats due to proximity to the Alaska-Aleutian Subduction Zone, as well as distant tsunamis from around the Pacific Ocean basin. ■ The western coast of the U.S. is threatened by distant tsunamis from around the Pacific Ocean basin and local source tsunamis from earthquakes generated within the Cascadia Subduction Zone in the Pacific Northwest. ■ American Samoa faces local tsunami threats from earthquakes generated in the nearby Tonga Trench, as well as distant tsunami threats. ■ Guam and the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands are threatened by local tsunamis from the nearby Mariana Subduction Zone, as well as distant sources from around the Pacific Ocean Basin. ■ Puerto Rico and the United States Virgin Islands are threatened by multiple local and distant tsunami sources, such as the Puerto Rico Trench (PRT), given their location in the complex seismic region of the Caribbean Sea. Several historical events stand out because of their catastrophic impacts. ■ In the Pacific Northwest, the 1700 Cascadia earthquake caused a tsunami that affected coastal Native American communities, though the extent of the damage is not fully documented (Ludwin, et al., 2005). ■ In Puerto Rico, the 1918 earthquake triggered a tsunami that caused $77 million in damage in 2022 dollars and 116 fatalities, primarily along the western coast (Coffman et al., 1982). ■ The 1946 Aleutian Islands earthquake triggered a massive tsunami that devastated Hilo, Hawaii, killing 158 people and resulting in approximately $375 million in damage (adjusted to 2022 dollars) (Fisher et al., 2023). ■ The 1964 Alaska earthquake (M 9.2) generated tsunamis that caused severe destruction in some communities across Alaska, Oregon, and California. This disaster led to a total of 124 fatalities and approximately $2.9 billion in property damage (adjusted to 2022 dollars) (Brocher et al., 2014) (Alaska Science Center, 2024). ■ In American Samoa, a tsunami generated by the 2009 Samoa earthquake (Mw 8.1) caused widespread devastation, resulting in 34 confirmed fatalities (Apatu et al., 2013) and economic losses exceeding $160 million (adjusted to 2022 dollars) (DHS, 2011). More recent events, including the 2010 Chile earthquake, the 2011 Japan earthquake, and the 2022 Tonga volcanic eruption, resulted in millions of dollars in damage to numerous ports and harbors in the U.S. South Pacific territories, Hawaii, and along the west coast of the U.S. (Lynett, et al., 2022) (Wilson, et al., 2013). Since these events, the expansion of the built environment in lowlying areas along the coast has increased the exposure of buildings and people, thereby further escalating community risk from tsunamis. This report provides a comprehensive national assessment of earthquake-generated tsunami risk. It does not include impacts from tsunamis generated by landslides, volcanic eruptions, glacial calving, near-earth objects, weather, or other events. This study is based on the best available hazard data from the U.S. Pacific Coast (California, Oregon and Washington), Alaska, Hawaii, U.S. Pacific Territories (American Samoa, Guam and Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands) and Caribbean Territories (Puerto Rico and United States Virgin Islands). Tsunami risks associated with states along the East Coast, Gulf Coast, and Great Lakes are not included in this study because Hazus 6.1 software (FEMA 2024a) does not currently include the ability to analyze tsunami risk in those states. Once modeling capabilities and tsunami hazard data become available for additional states, FEMA may incorporate these data into future editions of this study.

Alaska, California, Hawaii Oregon, Washington

An attention U-Net model for detection of fine-scale hydrologic streamlines

Surface water is an irreplaceable resource for human survival and environmental sustainability. Accurate, finely detailed cartographic representations of hydrologic streamlines are critically important in various scientific domains, such as assessing the quantity and quality of present and future water resources, modeling climate changes, evaluating agricultural suitability, mapping flood inundation, and monitoring environmental changes. Conventional approaches to detecting such streamlines cannot adequately incorporate information from the complex three-dimensional (3D) environment of streams and land surface features. Such information is vital to accurately delineate streamlines. In recent years, high accuracy lidar data has become increasingly available for deriving both 3D information and terrestrial surface reflectance. This study develops an attention U-net model to take advantage of high-accuracy lidar data for finely detailed streamline detection and evaluates model results against a baseline of multiple traditional machine learning methods. The evaluation shows that the attention U-net model outperforms the best baseline machine learning method by an average F1 score of 11.25% and achieves significantly better smoothness and connectivity between classified streamline channels. These findings suggest that our deep learning approach can harness high-accuracy lidar data for fine-scale hydrologic streamline detection, and in turn produce desirable benefits for many scientific domains.

North Carolina

California State Waters Map series data catalog

In 2007, the California Ocean Protection Council initiated the California Seafloor Mapping Program (CSMP), designed to create a comprehensive seafloor map of high-resolution bathymetry, marine benthic habitats, and geology within the 3-nautical-mile limit of California's State Waters. The CSMP approach is to create highly detailed seafloor maps and associated data layers through the collection, integration, interpretation, and visualization of swath sonar data, acoustic backscatter, seafloor video, seafloor photography, high-resolution seismic-reflection profiles, and bottom-sediment sampling data. CSMP has divided coastal California into 110 map blocks (fig. 1), each to be published individually as USGS Scientific Investigations Maps (SIMs) at a scale of 1:24,000. The map products display seafloor morphology and character, identify potential marine benthic habitats, and illustrate both the seafloor geology and shallow (to about 100 m) subsurface geology. This CSMP data catalog contains much of the data used to prepare the SIMs in the California State Waters Map Series. Other data that were used to prepare the maps were compiled from previously published sources (for example, onshore geology) and, thus, are not included herein.

California

Automated construction of Streamflow-Routing networks for MODFLOW—Application in the Mississippi Embayment region

In humid regions with dense stream networks, surface water exerts a fundamental control on the water levels and flow directions of shallow groundwater. Understanding interactions between groundwater and surface water is critical for managing groundwater resources and groundwater-dependent ecosystems. Representing streams in groundwater models has historically been arduous and error prone. In recent years, however, all the information needed to numerically describe stream boundary conditions for a model area has become readily available online, as have robust open-source software tools for translating that information to a model grid. The SFRmaker Python package leverages geospatial capabilities in the scientific Python ecosystem to robustly automate the production of input to the Streamflow-Routing (SFR) Package of MODFLOW from the National Hydrography Dataset Plus or other hydrography data. This report documents an application of SFRmaker to automate production of SFR Package input for groundwater models within the Mississippi Embayment Regional Aquifer Study area. SFR Package input was developed in three steps: (1) preprocessing to develop a single set of grid-independent flowlines from National Hydrography Dataset Plus version 2 data; (2) setting up the SFR package from the preprocessed flowlines, and (3) correcting streambed top elevations after an initial model run. Separating the hydrography preprocessing from the construction of SFR Package input was advantageous in that it minimized the need to repeat computationally expensive geoprocessing (thereby speeding model construction) and also allowed for the curation of a single set of grid-independent SFR input data that can be used for any MODFLOW model within the study area.

Mississippi Embayment Region

Geoinformatics 2007: data to knowledge

Geoinformatics is the term used to describe a variety of efforts to promote collaboration between the computer sciences and the geosciences to solve complex scientific questions. It refers to the distributed, integrated digital information system and working environment that provides innovative means for the study of the Earth systems, as well as other planets, through use of advanced information technologies. Geoinformatics activities range from major research and development efforts creating new technologies to provide high-quality, sustained production-level services for data discovery, integration and analysis, to small, discipline-specific efforts that develop earth science data collections and data analysis tools serving the needs of individual communities. The ultimate vision of Geoinformatics is a highly interconnected data system populated with high quality, freely available data, as well as, a robust set of software for analysis, visualization, and modeling.

Scientific Investigations Report

U.S. Geological Survey science for the Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative—2018 annual report

The Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative (WLCI) was established in 2007 as a collaborative interagency partnership to develop and implement science-based conservation actions. During the past 11 years, partners from U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), State and Federal land management agencies, universities, and the public have collaborated to implement a long-term (more than 10 years) science-based program that assesses and enhances the quality and quantity of wildlife habitats in the southwest Wyoming region while facilitating responsible development. The USGS WLCI Science Team completes scientific research and develops tools that inform and support WLCI partner planning, decision making, and on-the-ground management actions. In fiscal year 2018, the USGS initiated 3 new projects and continued efforts on 21 ongoing science and web-development projects. The first new project was initiated to support Secretarial Order 3362 which calls on the USGS to assist Western States in mapping big-game migration corridors and developing new mapping tools. During 2018, the USGS hosted a workshop in Laramie, Wyoming, which included more than 70 State and Federal wildlife experts from Colorado, New Mexico, Texas, and Wyoming. Most of the mapping and migration tool curricula used in the workshop were derived from prior WLCI studies and mapping efforts of big-game migration movement in habitats undergoing large-scale energy development. The second new project was in response for WLCI partners to better understand sedimentation and hydrogeomorphic processes in a cold-desert headwater and the third new project was designed to improve our approach for people to access, manage, and analyze WLCI data and WLCI resource information. The USGS published 18 products (including peer-reviewed journal articles, USGS series publications, and data releases) and provided more than a dozen professional oral and poster presentations at scientific meetings and numerous informal presentations to WLCI partners at meetings and workshops. This report summarizes the objectives and status of each project and highlights the USGS 2018 accomplishments and products.

Wyoming

A global digital elevation model - GTOP030

GTOP030, the U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) digital elevation model (DEM) of the Earth, provides the flrst global coverage of moderate resolution elevation data. The original GTOP30 data set, which was developed over a 3-year period through a collaborative effort led by the USGS, was completed in 1996 at the USGS EROS Data Center in Sioux Falls, South Dakota. The collaboration involved contributions of staffing, funding, or source data from cooperators including the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), the United Nations Environment Programme Global Resource Information Database (UNEP/GRID), the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), the Instituto Nacional de Estadistica Geografia e Informatica (INEGI) of Mexico, the Geographical Survey Institute (GSI) of Japan, Manaaki Whenua Landcare Research of New Zealand, and the Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research (SCAR). In 1999, work was begun on an update to the GTOP030 data set. Additional data sources are being incorporated into GTOP030 with an enhanced and improved data set planned for release in 2000.

Fact Sheet

Transmitter effects on growth and survival of Forster’s tern chicks

Radio‐telemetry is a commonly used scientific technique that allows researchers to collect detailed movement, habitat use, and survival data of animals; however, evidence indicates that using telemetry can affect behavior and survival. Using multiple breeding colonies and years, we investigated the effects of attached radio‐transmitters on growth and survival of Forster's tern ( Sterna forsteri ) chicks in San Francisco Bay, California, USA, 2010–2011. We tested these potential effects at isolated islands that allowed for high re‐capture rates (typically >85%) in radio‐marked and banded‐only chicks. Modeled Gompertz growth curves suggested that transmitters had a small negative effect on some of the asymptotic growth parameters of tern chicks; tarsus (−1.5 ± 0.7% [SE]), culmen (−1.7 ± 1.2%), and wing (−4.9 ± 2.0%) lengths were shorter for radio‐marked chicks compared to banded‐only chicks. In contrast, there was no difference in asymptotic mass between radio‐marked chicks and banded‐only chicks. Survival from hatching to fledging was lower for radio‐marked chicks than banded‐only chicks during 2010 (banded‐only = 0.313 ± 0.162 vs. radio‐marked = 0.250 ± 0.165) and 2011 (0.193 ± 0.030 vs. 0.123 ± 0.027). Most of the transmitter effect occurred within the first week after hatching, rather than in older chicks. Notably, the effect of transmitters on chick survival was primarily additive, indicating that the effect of transmitters on radio‐marked chicks was not influenced by other ecological covariates. Given the effect radio‐transmitters had on survival did not change across temporal or ecological gradients, transmitters can still be used to evaluate ecological factors affecting survival and timing of mortality and radio‐marked birds can be used to make inferences to the general population.

California

Exploring drivers of regional water-quality change using differential spatially referenced regression – A pilot study in the Chesapeake Bay watershed

An understanding of riverine water-quality dynamics in regional mixed-land use watersheds is the foundation for advances in landscape biogeochemistry and informed land management. A differential implementation of the statistical/process-based model SPAtially Referenced Regressions on Watershed attributes (SPARROW; Smith et al., https://doi.org/10.1029/97wr02171 ) is proposed to empirically relate a regional pattern of changes in flow-normalized constituent flux, over a multiyear period, to contemporaneous changes in spatially referenced explanatory variables. In a pilot application, the differential model, called Spatiotemporal Watershed Accumulation of Net effects (SWAN), is used to explore factors influencing changes in flow-normalized flux of total nitrogen over the period 1990–2010 at 43 sites in the nontidal Chesapeake Bay watershed. A seven-parameter model explains 80% of the transformed variability in independently estimated flux changes, indicating that storage effects having characteristic time scales greater than 20 years had a small influence, relative to changes in inputs, on regional water-quality response. Results suggest that 1990–2010 changes in total-nitrogen flux are largely the outcome of increased nonpoint-source pollution associated with urban and suburban development, modulated to the point of negation by terrestrial losses stemming from widespread increases in air temperature and precipitation. The loss mechanism is qualitatively consistent with denitrification; however, increases in aboveground biomass, agricultural nitrogen exports, or hydrologic flushing are also plausible contributors. Although qualified by a small sample size and constraints on explanatory data availability, the pilot suggests that SWAN is a promising approach for broadening scientific understanding of factors driving regional water-quality change and for supporting evidence-based land-management decisions.

Chesapeake Bay watershed

Tell me a story! A plea for more compelling conference presentations

Effective communication with other scientists is an essential component of the scientific process, underlying success in publishing papers, building collaborations, securing grants and jobs, and stimulating further research. Oral presentations at professional meetings provide an opportunity to share research findings with a relatively broad scientific audience. However, many scientists give talks that are crowded with methods and data, accompanied by poor visuals, and, most unfortunately, lacking in narrative arc. Here, I provide strategies for distilling research findings into a short-format talk, capturing the audience's attention, and delivering a compelling and visually engaging story. I argue that the material should be designed to interest a wide range of meeting attendees, not just experts in a narrow field. I also advocate principles of good storytelling, with the aim of leading the audience through a compelling journey of discovery that concludes with a memorable takeaway message.

The Condor: Ornithological Applications

Introduction to the special issue on the 2004 Parkfield earthquake and the Parkfield earthquake prediction experiment

The 28 September 2004 M 6.0 Parkfield earthquake, a long-anticipated event on the San Andreas fault, is the world's best recorded earthquake to date, with state-of-the-art data obtained from geologic, geodetic, seismic, magnetic, and electrical field networks. This has allowed the preearthquake and postearthquake states of the San Andreas fault in this region to be analyzed in detail. Analyses of these data provide views into the San Andreas fault that show a complex geologic history, fault geometry, rheology, and response of the nearby region to the earthquake-induced ground movement. Although aspects of San Andreas fault zone behavior in the Parkfield region can be modeled simply over geological time frames, the Parkfield Earthquake Prediction Experiment and the 2004 Parkfield earthquake indicate that predicting the fine details of future earthquakes is still a challenge. Instead of a deterministic approach, forecasting future damaging behavior, such as that caused by strong ground motions, will likely continue to require probabilistic methods. However, the Parkfield Earthquake Prediction Experiment and the 2004 Parkfield earthquake have provided ample data to understand most of what did occur in 2004, culminating in significant scientific advances.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America