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At least 613 records · Page 34Linked to original sources
USGS1982

Results of a modeling workshop concerning economic and environmental trends and concomitant resource management issues in the Mobile Bay area

During the past decade, the southern regions of the U.S. have experienced rapid change which is expected to continue into the foreseeable future. Growth in population, industry, and resource development has been attributed to a variety of advantages such as an abundant and inexpensive labor force, a mild climate, and the availability of energy, water, land, and other natural resources. While this growth has many benefits for the region, it also creates the potential for increased air, water, and solid waste pollution, and modification of natural habitats. A workshop was convened to consider the Mobile Bay area as a site-specific case of growth and its environmental consequences in the southern region. The objectives of the modeling workshop were to: (1) identify major factors of economic development as they relate to growth in the area over the immediate and longer term; (2) identify major environmental and resource management issues associated with this expected growth; and (3) identify and characterize the complex interrelationships among economic and environmental factors. This report summarizes the activities and results of a modeling workshop concerning economic growth and concomitant resource management issues in the Mobile Bay area. The workshop was organized around construction of a simulation model representing the relationships between a series of actions and indicators identified by participants. The workshop model had five major components. An Industry Submodel generated scenarios of growth in several industrial and transportation sectors. A Human Population/Economy Submodel calculated human population and economic variables in response to employment opportunities. A Land Use/Air Quality Submodel tabulated changes in land use, shoreline use, and air quality. A Water Submodel calculated indicators of water quality and quantity for fresh surface water, ground water, and Mobile Bay based on discharge information provided by the Industry and Human Population/Economy Submodels. Finally, a Fish Submodel calculated indicators of habitat quality for finfish and shellfish, utilizing information on water quality and wetlands acreage. The workshop was successful in identifying many of the critical interrelations between components of the Mobile area system. Not all of those interactions, such as the feedback of air quality as a limitation on development, could be incorporated into the workshop model because of the model's broad spatial scale and because of uncertainties or data gaps. Thus, the value of the modeling workshop was in the areas outlines below, rather than in the predictive power of the initial model developed at the workshop. First, participants developed a holistic perspective on the interactions which will determine future economic and environmental trends within the Mobile Bay area. Potential environmental consequences and limitations to grown identified at the workshop included: shoreline and water access; water quality of Mobile Bay; finfish and shellfish habitat quality with respect to dissolved oxygen and coliforms; air quality; and acreage of critical wetland habitat. Second, the model's requirements for specific, quantitative information stimulated supporting analyses, such as economic input-output calculations, which provide additional insight into the Mobile Bay area system. Third, the perspective of the Mobile area as an interacting system was developed in an open, cooperative forum which my provide a foundation for conflict resolution based on common understanding. Finally, the identification of model limitations and uncertainties should be useful in guiding the efficient allocation of future research effort.

Alabama↗
USGS2024

Using an adaptive modeling framework to identify avian influenza spillover risk at the wild-domestic interface

The wild to domestic bird interface is an important nexus for emergence and transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) viruses. Although the recent incursion of HPAI H5N1 Clade 2.3.4.4b into North America calls for emergency response and planning given the unprecedented scale, readily available data-driven models are lacking. Here, we provide high resolution spatial and temporal transmission risk models for the contiguous United States. Considering virus host ecology, we included weekly species-level wild waterfowl (Anatidae) abundance and endemic low pathogenic avian influenza virus prevalence metrics in combination with number of poultry farms per commodity type and relative biosecurity risks at two spatial scales: 3 km and county-level. Spillover risk varied across the annual cycle of waterfowl migration and some locations exhibited persistent risk throughout the year given higher poultry production. Validation using wild bird introduction events identified by phylogenetic analysis from 2022 to 2023 HPAI poultry outbreaks indicate strong model performance. The modular nature of our approach lends itself to building upon updated datasets under evolving conditions, testing hypothetical scenarios, or customizing results with proprietary data. This research demonstrates an adaptive approach for developing models to inform preparedness and response as novel outbreaks occur, viruses evolve, and additional data become available.

contiguous United States↗
USGS2013

Seafloor video footage and still-frame grabs from U.S. Geological Survey cruises in Hawaiian nearshore waters

Underwater video footage was collected in nearshore waters (<60-meter depth) off the Hawaiian Islands from 2002 to 2011 as part of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Coastal and Marine Geology Program's Pacific Coral Reef Project, to improve seafloor characterization and for the development and ground-truthing of benthic-habitat maps. This report includes nearly 53 hours of digital underwater video footage collected during four USGS cruises and more than 10,200 still images extracted from the videos, including still frames from every 10 seconds along transect lines, and still frames showing both an overview and a near-bottom view from fixed stations. Environmental Systems Research Institute (ESRI) shapefiles of individual video and still-image locations, and Google Earth kml files with explanatory text and links to the video and still images, are included. This report documents the various camera systems and methods used to collect the videos, and the techniques and software used to convert the analog video tapes into digital data in order to process the images for optimum viewing and to extract the still images, along with a brief summary of each survey cruise.

Hawai'i↗
USGS2022

Science and innovation for battling invasive carp

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is the Federal Government’s independent research agency that conducts research to inform management of invasive species. Bighead, black, grass, and silver carp, which are native to China, were originally stocked in aquaculture facilities to control algae, snails, and vegetation. These species have invaded the Mississippi River and are now established throughout the lower and middle Mississippi River Basins and some of its large tributaries where they damage ecosystems and harm economies. A reproducing population of grass carp in Lake Erie is a risk to the $7 billion Great Lakes fishery. The USGS is leading research efforts on risk assessment and on early detection of new invasions. The USGS is also developing and evaluating harvest methods, barriers and deterrents, and baits/attractants to provide Federal and State management agencies the tools needed to manage and reduce populations of these species.

Alabama, Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas↗
USGS2014

National Land Imaging Requirements (NLIR) Pilot Project summary report: Summary of moderate resolution imaging user requirements

Under the National Land Imaging Requirements (NLIR) Project, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is developing a functional capability to obtain, characterize, manage, maintain and prioritize all Earth observing (EO) land remote sensing user requirements. The goal is a better understanding of community needs that can be supported with land remote sensing resources, and a means to match needs with appropriate solutions in an effective and efficient way. The NLIR Project is composed of two components. The first component is focused on the development of the Earth Observation Requirements Evaluation System (EORES) to capture, store and analyze user requirements, whereas, the second component is the mechanism and processes to elicit and document the user requirements that will populate the EORES. To develop the second component, the requirements elicitation methodology was exercised and refined through a pilot project conducted from June to September 2013. The pilot project focused specifically on applications and user requirements for moderate resolution imagery (5–120 meter resolution) as the test case for requirements development. The purpose of this summary report is to provide a high-level overview of the requirements elicitation process that was exercised through the pilot project and an early analysis of the moderate resolution imaging user requirements acquired to date to support ongoing USGS sustainable land imaging study needs. The pilot project engaged a limited set of Federal Government users from the operational and research communities and therefore the information captured represents only a subset of all land imaging user requirements. However, based on a comparison of results, trends, and analysis, the pilot captured a strong baseline of typical applications areas and user needs for moderate resolution imagery. Because these results are preliminary and represent only a sample of users and application areas, the information from this report should only be used to indicate general user needs for the applications covered. Users of the information are cautioned that use of specific numeric results may be inappropriate without additional research. Any information used or cited from this report should specifically be cited as preliminary findings.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2023

User needs assessment for postfire debris-flow inundation hazard products

Debris flows are a type of mass movement that is more likely after wildfires, and while existing hazard assessments evaluate the rainfall intensities that are likely to trigger debris flows, no operational hazard assessment exists for identifying the areas where they will run out after initiation. Fifteen participants who work in a wide range of job functions associated with southern California postfire hazards were selected using purposive sampling for unstructured interviews about useful characteristics and needs for postfire debris-flow inundation hazard assessments. The interview guide was developed by a team of social and physical scientists following best practices for engaging with users. The guide focused on target information that could influence ongoing or not-yet-initiated research on debris-flow physics and hazard assessment methodology. Following standard methods for user needs assessment, the audio from the unstructured interviews was recorded, transcribed, and analyzed using a thematic coding scheme. Participants reported engaging with postfire debris-flow inundation as one of multiple postfire hazards and their information needs reflect this breadth. Most participants were from organizations with life and property mandates, and this focused their concerns on where debris-flow inundation could impact people’s physical safety, the ability of populations to egress, and damage to property. Common comments included, (1) the need to interpret inundation hazard assessments in the context of forecast rainfall—which are typically associated with different timeframes, 15 and 60 minutes, respectively; (2) the need to provide multiple scenarios in a hazard assessment to show how the hazard changes under different external factors such as varying rainfall intensity; and (3) the tension between fully reflecting all sources of uncertainty in identifying impacted areas and a high level of precision needed to determine evacuation zones in order to reduce evacuation fatigue. Participants saw utility in both low-resolution hazard assessments over large areas and fine-resolution targeted assessments over small areas, noting that the identification of target areas could pose an ethical challenge because some areas might be prioritized over others. Participants were concerned about the hazard posed by the continuum of postfire hydrologic hazards, including hyperconcentrated flows. Finally, participants recognized that the shrinking time window between the end of fire season and the start of the wet season in southern California makes the production, interpretation, and use of rapid postfire debris-flow inundation hazard assessments both important and challenging.

California↗
USGS2021

Alaska landbird montoring survey: Alaska regional protocol framework for monitoring landbirds using point counts

Alaska provides habitat for 143 species of landbirds that occur regularly in the state, about half of which breed predominantly north of the border between the contiguous United States and Canada. The road-based North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) provides some data on population trends in Alaska, but most northern populations are inadequately monitored by this program because of a paucity of roads. To remedy this deficiency, Boreal Partners in Flight developed the Alaska Landbird Monitoring Survey (ALMS) to monitor breeding populations of landbirds in off-road areas of Alaska in tandem with data collected from the roadside BBS. The primary objective of ALMS is to monitor long-term population trends of landbirds and other species that can be monitored by diurnal point counts during the breeding season, including many shorebirds and aquatic birds. A secondary objective is to estimate landbird densities by habitat, which can be used to model avian distribution and abundance across Alaska. ALMS is a collaborative program whereby agencies and other entities conduct standardized surveys of breeding birds and their habitats on the lands they manage and then contribute the data to the U.S. Geological Survey Alaska Science Center for storage and analysis. The short-term implementation goal of ALMS is to monitor birds systematically within each of 100 randomly selected survey blocks, thereby matching the number of BBS surveys conducted in each of Alaska's five Bird Conservation Regions (BCRs). Each block has a mini-grid of 15−25 points that are surveyed biennially, with half of the blocks surveyed in alternating years. Survey blocks are stratified by accessibility and cost-effectiveness. Refuges may opt to limit sites to those accessible by foot, vehicle, boat, or fixed-wing aircraft, as these can be surveyed more inexpensively and reliably over time. Observers survey each point within a survey block for birds using a 10-min point count once per summer on a biennial basis. They collect corresponding habitat data during the first visit and at subsequent 10-year intervals or whenever a disturbance (e.g., fire, wind) has caused a significant change. USGS analyzes ALMS data jointly with BBS data to test for differences between off-road and roadside areas and to increase power to detect statewide trends. Additional blocks can be surveyed in areas that are more difficult and expensive to access as resources become available in the future. Long-term monitoring enables detection of change in bird populations in relation to fire, disease and insect damage, resource development, climate-related change, and other landscape-level disturbances across Alaska. Results from ALMS can also help prioritize conservation and research towards species before they become endangered and require expensive recovery programs.

Alaska↗
USGS2014

U.S. Geological Survey Science for the Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative - 2013 Annual Report

This is the sixth report produced by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) for the Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative (WLCI) to detail annual activities conducted by USGS for addressing specific management needs identified by WLCI partners. In FY2013, there were 25 ongoing and new projects conducted by the USGS. These projects fall into 8 major categories: (1) synthesizing and analyzing existing data to describe (model and map) current conditions on the landscape; (2) developing models for projecting past and future landscape conditions; (3) monitoring indicators of ecosystem conditions and the effectiveness of on-the-ground habitat projects; (4) conducting research to elucidate the mechanisms underlying wildlife and habitat responses to changing land uses; (5) managing and making accessible the large number of databases, maps, and other products being developed; (6) helping to integrate WLCI outcomes with future habitat enhancement and research projects; (7) coordinating efforts among WLCI partners; and (8) providing support to WLCI decision-makers and assisting with overall evaluation of the WLCI program. The two new projects initiated in FY2013 address (1) important agricultural lands in southwestern Wyoming, and (2) the influence of energy development on native fish communities. The remaining activities entailed our ongoing efforts to compile data, model landscape conditions, monitor trends in habitat conditions, conduct studies of wildlife responses to energy development, and upgrade Web-based products in support of both individual and overall WLCI efforts. Milestone FY2013 accomplishments included completing the development of a WLCI inventory and monitoring framework and the associated monitoring strategies, protocols, and analytics; and initial development of an Interagency Inventory and Monitoring Database, which will be accessible through the Monitoring page of the WLCI Web site at http://www.wlci.gov/monitoring. We also completed the initial phase of the mountain shrub-mapping project in the Big Piney-La Barge mule deer winter range. Finally, a 3-year survey of pygmy rabbits in four major gas-field areas was completed and used to validate the pygmy rabbit habitat model/map developed earlier in the project. Important products that became available for use by WLCI partners included publication of USGS Data Series report (http://pubs.usgs.gov/ds/800/pdf/ds800.pdf) that compiles our WLCI land cover and land use data, which depict current and historical patterns of sage-grouse habitat in relation to energy development and will be used to pose “what-if” scenarios to evaluate possible outcomes of alternative land-use strategies and practices on habitat and wildlife. Another important FY2013 product was a journal article (http://aapgbull.geoscienceworld.org/content/97/6/899.full) that describes the Mowry Shale and Frontier formation, which harbors coalbed methane and shale gas resources in Wyoming, Colorado, and Utah, for use in future scenario-building work. We also produced maps and databases that depict the structure and condition of aspen stands in the Little Mountain Ecosystem, and then presented this information to the Bureau of Land Management, Wyoming Game and Fish Department, and other interested entities for supporting aspen-management objectives.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2004

The elusive baseline of marine disease: Are diseases in ocean ecosystems increasing?

Disease outbreaks alter the structure and function of marine ecosystems, directly affecting vertebrates (mammals, turtles, fish), invertebrates (corals, crustaceans, echinoderms), and plants (seagrasses). Previous studies suggest a recent increase in marine disease. However, lack of baseline data in most communities prevents a direct test of this hypothesis. We developed a proxy to evaluate a prediction of the increasing disease hypothesis: the proportion of scientific publications reporting disease increased in recent decades. This represents, to our knowledge, the first quantitative use of normalized trends in the literature to investigate an ecological hypothesis. We searched a literature database for reports of parasites and disease (hereafter “disease”) in nine marine taxonomic groups from 1970 to 2001. Reports, normalized for research effort, increased in turtles, corals, mammals, urchins, and molluscs. No significant trends were detected for seagrasses, decapods, or sharks/rays (though disease occurred in these groups). Counter to the prediction, disease reports decreased in fishes. Formulating effective resource management policy requires understanding the basis and timing of marine disease events. Why disease outbreaks increased in some groups but not in others should be a priority for future investigation. The increase in several groups lends urgency to understanding disease dynamics, particularly since few viable options currently exist to mitigate disease in the oceans.

PLoS Biology↗
USGS2020

Human behavioral response in the Ridgecrest earthquakes: Assessing immediate actions based on data from “Did You Feel It?”

Human behavioral response to earthquake ground motion has long been a subject of multidisciplinary interest and research. In most versions of seismic intensity scales, human perceptions and behavior are one component of the assignment of intensity. Public health research has shown that actions taken during earthquakes have a significant impact on the incidence of injury or the maintenance of safety. Based on this research, emergency managers and organizations promoting emergency preparedness have advocated strategies such as drop, cover, and hold on (DCHO) and promoted this safety measure through public education and annual drills. The “Did You Feel It?” (DYFI) mapping system (see Data and Resources) based on an online questionnaire developed and maintained by the U.S. Geological Survey has provided opportunities for those who have experienced an earthquake to report this experience worldwide since 2004. The DYFI questionnaire, although designed to assign intensity, also contains questions regarding the behavior in which one has engaged during the earthquake. The questionnaire includes other important information that may elucidate behavioral response to earthquakes, including assigned intensity, emotional reaction, and whether damage occurred at the location where the earthquake was experienced. The very large number of people who completed DYFI questionnaires following the July 2019 Ridgecrest, California, earthquakes provides a robust dataset for analysis and suggests that as intensity and levels of fear increase, behavior becomes more active in terms of physical movement to locations of presumed safety. Among active responses including DCHO, going to a doorway, and running outside, DCHO was the least likely to be implemented. The study provides possible explanations for low participation in DCHO despite active campaigns to promote this strategy.

California↗
USGS2004

Migration stopover ecology of western avian populations: A southwestern migration workshop

The importance of migration stopover sites in ensuring that migratory birds successfully accomplish their journeys between breeding and non-breeding ranges has come to the forefront of avian research. Migratory birds that breed in western United States (US) and Canada and overwinter primarily in western Mexico migrate across the arid region of northern Mexico and southwestern US. Many of these migrants use lowland riparian stopover habitats, which comprise less than 0.1% of the western U.S. landscape. These habitats represent a significant conservation priority. Recognizing the importance of migration stopover habitats in the arid southwest, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) Region 6 partnered with the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to support a project---&ldquo;Migration stopover ecology of western avian populations: patterns of geographic and habitat distribution.&rdquo; A primary objective of the project was to convene a workshop for avian researchers, conservation professionals, and land managers involved in stopover needs of migratory birds that breed in western North America. The workshop included presentations on our current state of knowledge regarding passerine migration in western North America, techniques and technologies potentially useful in researching migration, and efforts that agencies and other partners are conducting within the realm of migration. Workshop presentations provided a backdrop for subsequent discussions, the goals of which were to identify research needs and initiate a coordinated approach to research of western migration stopover ecology. Workshop presentations spanned a wide range of concerns and interests. Highlights included indications that mid- and high-elevation riparian and montane shrubland habitats may be as crucial to western migrants in fall migration as lowland riparian habitats are in spring migration. Comparisons of eastern versus western migration systems elucidated large differences in stopover habitats used and the intensity with which certain types are used, underscoring the potential need to develop separate management approaches for eastern and western stopover sites. Presentations on techniques and technology for migration research revealed that rate of lipid deposition can serve as an indicator of habitat quality; that genetics and stable isotope analyses of feathers can be valuable tools to elucidate linkages between breeding and wintering areas; that radar imagery can be used to track large-scale movement patterns and habitat use; and that there are analytical options for combining multiple sources of information. Other presentations focused on partnership perspectives (USFWS and Sonoran Joint Venture), the genesis of a western migration monitoring network, premises of Coordinated Bird Monitoring, and how collaborative efforts could benefit migration research (e.g., combined bird and bat migration studies; linking avian researchers with fluvial geomorphologists; linking research throughout western North America; linking surveys and banding). Priority research needs and questions identified during the open discussions fell into three main categories: (1) habitat/landscape/climate relationships, (2) en route bird distribution patterns, and (3) general migration ecology. Tasks within these categories included: define the relative importance of various habitat types to migrants in spring and fall, determine what distinguishes high- from poor-quality stopover habitat; determine geographic patterns of loss in stopover habitats; model landscape attributes associated with species richness and abundance; identify effects of climate change and current climate anomalies on plant phonologies, associated insect flushes, and timing of migration; and determine effects of hydrologic changes on riparian vegetation, food availability, and stopover habitat quality. Workshop participants discussed a coordinated approach for addressing immediate research needs regarding migration patterns and crucial stopover sites and types. They envisioned a three&shy;-tiered, coordinated approach: (1) long-term research to address effects of climate change and other large-scale patterns, (2) intensive, short-term survey and monitoring efforts using a stratified random design within habitats of interest to elucidate regional patterns of distribution and habitat use, and (3) research conducted at existing survey and banding sites to address more in-depth questions (e.g., rates of lipid deposition, microhabitat use, isotope analyses). There was considerable interest in developing common research proposals to blend the broad expertise represented at this workshop. A second meeting is recommended to build on the momentum of these discussions, to facilitate collaborations, and further the goals of integrated approaches to broadscale research on migration stopover ecology.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2006

Genetic Considerations for the Restoration of Smooth Cordgrass (Spartina alterniflora) Within Its Native Range

In order to remain viable over many generations, plant populations require the ability to respond adaptively to a changing environment. Such adaptive potential is directly controlled by underlying genetic variation, which can be measured in terms of both heterozygosity at the individual level and clonal, or genotypic diversity at the population level. This report summarizes research relating to the importance of genetic diversity in the restoration of salt marsh smooth cordgrass, Spartina alterniflora, a dominant member of low elevation intertidal marshes throughout the northern Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Coasts of North America. Recent research has indicated that S. alterniflora is a partially clonal species characterized by the recruitment of seedlings exclusively during the initial colonization phase of population establishment. A major consequence of this finding is that clonal diversity generally peaks rather early in the development of a restored marsh, depending on the rate of natural immigration and/or the clonal diversity of planting units, and then undergoes a steady decline over geological time spans because of stochastic mortality and intraspecific competition. Low levels of clonal diversity resulting from restricted immigration or clonally depauperate planting materials in turn places strict limits on opportunities for outcrossing in a species known to suffer from severe inbreeding depression. Low clonal diversity may further lead to declining levels of heterozyosity of individual clones, which directly affects competitive ability. In addition, the planting of genetically diverse plant materials should take into account the genetic and adaptive differentiation that takes place when plant populations are widely separated in space and/or dwell under varying sets of environmental conditions. Thus, steps should be taken to ensure that S. alterniflora clones developed for restorative plantings are both genetically diverse and sufficiently pre-adapted to environmental conditions at the proposed restoration site. This can be achieved by growing plant materials collected from local sources and by either taking care to maintain relatively high levels of clonal diversity or by planting clones at sufficiently low densities that they will not quickly grow to monopolize a restoration site without first producing several generations of sexual recruits through crosses with nearby native populations.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2024

Zebra and Quagga mussels in the United States—Dreissenid mussel research by the U.S. Geological Survey

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) delivers high-quality data, technologies, and decision-support tools to help managers both reduce existing populations and control the spread of dreissenid mussels. The USGS researches ecology, biology, risk assessment, and early detection and rapid response methods; provides decision support; and develops and tests control measures.

conterminous United States↗
USGS1983

Relationships between water quality and phosphorus concentrations for lakes of the Puget Sound region, Washington

Predictive regression relationships between concentrations of total phosphorus (P) in near-surface waters (1m) and water-quality characteristics were developed for lakes in the Puget Sound region. Nitrogen-to-phosphorus ratios support the strategy of emphasizing total P for lake eutrophication assessment within the range of lake conditions represented. Relationships based on summer total P concentrations, rather than winter-spring total P, led to more successful prediction of mean summertime chlorophyll a concentrations and Secchi-disc transparencies. The 78 lakes evaluated in the study had an average mean concentration of total phosphorus in near-surface waters of 22 ?g/L during the summer with mean concentrations for individual lakes ranging from 7 to 76 ?g/L. For regression relationships based on summer total phosphorus concentrations, the standard error of predicted Secchi-disc transparencies is ?0.9 meters for phosphorus concentrations of 15 ?g/L or greater, and the standard error of predicted chlorophyll a concentrations is ?5 ?g/L. Predictions for the range of conditions evaluated favorably agreed with predictions from similar relationships developed by other researchers for different lakes. To supplement estimates of transparency and chlorophyll a from regression relationships, a broader system of water-quality groups, including recreational suitability and fish habitat quality, was developed from published information and our experience in the region.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2023

Appendix D: Synthesis element 1 (revised): Water temperature effects on fisheries and stream health in nontidal waters

A limited review of relevant scientific literature related to temperature sensitivities of fish species, stream health indicators, and any related geospatial information was conducted. Based on this review, we provide a syntheses of information related to nontidal waters in the Chesapeake Bay Rising stream temperatures will have a range of impacts on nontidal aquatic ecosystems. Cold headwaters and associated species like brook trout and sculpin are especially vulnerable to higher stream temperatures. Efforts could be taken to identify and protect high quality resilient cold headwater brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) habitat. More information on groundwater impacts on stream temperatures and ecologically relevant temperature thresholds for species of concern could help resource managers identify temperature resilient habitats and populations. A vulnerability assessment could be valuable to better understand the drivers and stressors of rising stream temperatures, their effects on aquatic resources, and the risk to fish and other aquatic species. Further research could help in developing and fully vetting a complete list of cold/cool water benthic macroinvertebrate taxa and freshwater mussel taxa that are vulnerable to temperature change in the Chesapeake watershed.

Report↗
USGS2021

A reassessment of Chao2 estimates for population monitoring of grizzly bears in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem

The Yellowstone Ecosystem Subcommittee (YES) asked the Interagency Grizzly Bear Study Team (IGBST) to re-assess a technique used in annual population estimation and trend monitoring of grizzly bears in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE). This technique is referred to as the Chao2 approach and estimates the number of females with cubs-of-the-year (hereafter, females with cubs) and, in association with other demographic data, is used by the IGBST to produce annual population estimates. Females with cubs are an easily recognizable population segment, and trends for this reproductive segment of the population are assumed to be representative of trend for the entire population. The overarching objective of the analyses presented in this report was to provide a more accurate representation of the GYE grizzly bear population using the current methodologies in place. Specifically, we addressed two limitations of the current Chao2 approach: 1) underestimation bias associated with a distance criterion used to differentiate annual sightings of females with cubs into unique individuals and 2) limitations of the model-averaging approach to effectively distinguish among potential future population trajectories (decline, stability, and growth). The first issue addressed in this report is the underestimation bias associated with the rule set that Knight et al. (1995) developed to differentiate sightings of females with cubs into unique individuals (i.e., unique family groups). The rule set was originally designed to be conservative by reducing the risk of identifying more females with cubs than actually existed, primarily through use of a distance criterion of 30 km to separate sightings of unique females. This approach resulted in an underestimation bias, and previous research demonstrated that this bias increases with increasing number of females with cubs. Using location data from radio-marked females with cubs, we evaluated alternative distance criteria by simulating scenarios with varying numbers of true females with cubs and sightings. Findings from these analyses demonstrate that bias in estimates of females with cubs can be substantially reduced by changing the 30-km distance criterion in the rule set to 16 km, which produced relatively unbiased estimates. Findings also indicate, however, the importance of adaptability with regard to the distance criteria because of the complex relationships and biases among the various parameters involved in estimation of unique females with cubs. The total number of annual sightings and the true number of females with cubs play particularly important roles. Whereas these analyses remind us that there is no perfect approach to estimating the number of females with cubs from sightings under various scenarios, they provide us with new tools to determine when and how to adapt the monitoring program. The second issue we were tasked to investigate was the potential for improvement of the technique referred to as model-averaging, which serves to smooth relatively high variation in annual estimates. This technique was chosen by YES as the basis for monitoring the Yellowstone grizzly bear population, as described in the 2016 Conservation Strategy. This choice was made in part because the technique has been well documented and population estimates derived from counts of females with cubs are conservative. Using simulations of population trends, we demonstrate why the model-averaging technique currently used cannot distinguish between plausible future trend scenarios. As a suitable alternative to model averaging, we propose the use of generalized additive models (GAMs). Using a suite of simulated trend dynamics relevant to management, we demonstrate GAM performance for tracking trends in females with cubs within the context of the annual monitoring program. We demonstrate the ability to not only document directional changes in population trend but also patterns of stabilization or resiliency after such changes. Furthermore, the proposed monitoring framework provides objective measures useful for early detection of directional changes in trend. The new framework is flexible, allowing retrospective analysis of Chao2-based estimates and future applications to time series of other population metrics, such as vital rates. The aforementioned updates provide us with new tools to determine when and how to adapt the monitoring program. Within the context of current monitoring protocols and effort, and considering the full suite of simulations presented in this report and previous studies, the IGBST plans to incorporate the following changes to the population monitoring protocol: 1) modify the distance criterion, starting with 16 km under current sampling conditions and 2) revise the population monitoring framework using GAMs as the basis for smoothing of annual estimates and detecting trends and changes in trend. Implementation of the 16-km distance criterion combined with use of GAM techniques would affect some of the population metrics (e.g., annual population size and uncertainty, population trend, mortality rates) used to inform management responses. A primary consideration is that the 16-km distance criterion results in total population estimates derived from the Chao2 estimates that are greater than those we have reported in the past. This increase is due to a change in the implementation of the technique and more accurately represents the number of females with cubs in the GYE grizzly bear population. Additionally, interpretation of retrospective trend patterns may change due to the combination of a different distance criterion and enhanced trend monitoring based on the GAM approach we present here. Implementation will require relatively minor changes in the monitoring protocols described in Appendices B and C of the 2016 Conservation Strategy. Finally, we note that the IGBST has ongoing investigations into the merits of an Integrated Population Model (IPM), for which annual Chao2-based estimates are important input data. The IGBST plans to continue those investigations using the 16-km distance criterion to derive Chao2 estimates.

Idaho, Montana, Wyoming↗
USGS2002

Changes in ground-water quality in the Canal Creek Aquifer between 1995 and 2000-2001, West Branch Canal Creek area, Aberdeen Proving Ground, Maryland

Since 1917, Aberdeen Proving Ground, Maryland has been the primary chemical-warfare research and development center for the U.S. Army. Ground-water contamination has been documented in the Canal Creek aquifer because of past disposal of chemical and ordnance manufacturing waste. Comprehensive sampling for volatile organic compounds in ground water by the U.S. Geological Survey in the West Branch Canal Creek area was done in June-October 1995 and June-August 2000. The purpose of this report is (1) to compare volatile organic compound concentrations and determine changes in the ground-water contaminant plumes along two cross sections between 1995 and 2000, and (2) to incorporate data from new piezometers sampled in spring 2001 into the plume descriptions. Along the southern cross section, total concentrations of volatile organic compounds in 1995 were determined to be highest in the landfill area east of the wetland (5,200 micrograms per liter), and concentrations were next highest deep in the aquifer near the center of the wetland (3,300 micrograms per liter at 35 feet below land surface). When new piezometers were sampled in 2001, higher carbon tetrachloride and chloroform concentrations (2,000 and 2,900 micrograms per liter) were detected deep in the aquifer 38 feet below land surface, west of the 1995 sampling. A deep area in the aquifer close to the eastern edge of the wetland and a shallow area just east of the creek channel showed declines in total volatile organic compound concentrations of more than 25 percent, whereas between those two areas, concentrations generally showed an increase of greater than 25 percent between 1995 and 2000. Along the northern cross section, total concentrations of volatile organic compounds in ground water in both 1995 and 2000 were determined to be highest (greater than 2,000 micrograms per liter) in piezometers located on the east side of the section, farthest from the creek channel, and concentrations were progressively lower at piezometer locations closer to the creek channel. Total volatile organic compound concentrations increased more than 25 percent in some areas in the middle depths of the aquifer; however, it could not be determined if a defined plume was moving farther downgradient along ground-water flow paths toward the creek channel, or vertically downward because of density differences within the aquifer.

Maryland↗
USGS2011

Proceedings of the Klamath Basin Science Conference, Medford, Oregon, February 1-5, 2010

This report presents the proceedings of the Klamath Basin Science Conference (February 2010). A primary purpose of the meeting was to inform and update Klamath Basin stakeholders about areas of scientific progress and accomplishment during the last 5 years. Secondary conference objectives focused on the identification of outstanding information needs and science priorities as they relate to whole watershed management, restoration ecology, and possible reintroduction of Pacific salmon associated with the Klamath Basin Restoration Agreement (KBRA). Information presented in plenary, technical, breakout, and poster sessions has been assembled into chapters that reflect the organization, major themes, and content of the conference. Chapter 1 reviews the major environmental issues and resource management and other stakeholder needs of the basin. Importantly, this assessment of information needs included the possibility of large-scale restoration projects in the future and lessons learned from a case study in South Florida. Other chapters (2-6) summarize information about key components of the Klamath Basin, support conceptual modeling of the aquatic ecosystem (Chapter 7), and synthesize our impressions of the most pressing science priorities for management and restoration. A wealth of information was presented at the conference and this has been captured in chapters addressing environmental setting and human development of the basin, hydrology, watershed processes, fishery resources, and potential effects from climate change. The final chapter (8) culminates in a discussion of many specific research priorities that relate to and bookend the broader management needs and restoration goals identified in Chapter 1. In many instances, the conferees emphasized long-term and process-oriented approaches to watershed science in the basin as planning moves forward.

California, Oregon↗