SEARCH · Geology Reports

Results for “Journal Interpretation”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 613 records · Page 34Linked to original sources

USGS2001

Apparent inferiority of first-time breeders in the kittiwake: The role of heterogeneity among age classes

1. Many studies have provided evidence that first-time breeders have a lower survival, a lower probability of success, or of breeding, in the following year. Hypotheses based on reproductive costs have often been proposed to explain this. However, because of the intrinsic relationship between age and experience, the apparent inferiority of first-time breeders at the population level may result from selection, and experience may not influence performance within each individual. In this paper we address the question of phenotypic correlations between fitness components. This addresses differences in individual quality, a prerequisite for a selection process to occur. We also test the hypothesis of an influence of experience on these components while taking age and reproductive success into account: two factors likely to play a key role in a selection process. 2. Using data from a long-term study on the kittiwake, we found that first-time breeders have a lower probability of success, a lower survival and a lower probability of breeding in the next year than experienced breeders. However, neither experienced nor inexperienced breeders have a lower survival or a lower probability of breeding in the following year than birds that skipped a breeding opportunity. This suggests heterogeneity in quality among individuals. 3. Failed birds have a lower survival and a lower probability of breeding in the following year regardless of experience. This can be interpreted in the light of the selection hypothesis. The inferiority of inexperienced breeders may be linked to a higher proportion of lower-quality individuals in younger age classes. When age and breeding success are controlled for, there is no evidence of an influence of experience on survival or future breeding probability. 4. Using data from individuals whose reproductive life lasted the same number of years, we investigated the influence of experience on reproductive performance within individuals. There is no strong evidence that a process operating within individuals explains the improvement in performance observed at the population level.

Journal of Animal Ecology↗

USGS1979

Inventory and mapping of flood inundation using interactive digital image analysis techniques

LANDSAT digital data and color infra-red photographs were used in a multiphase sampling scheme to estimate the area of agricultural land affected by a flood. The LANDSAT data were classified with a maximum likelihood algorithm. Stratification of the LANDSAT data, prior to classification, greatly reduced misclassification errors. The classification results were used to prepare a map overlay showing the areal extent of flooding. These data also provided statistics required to estimate sample size in a two phase sampling scheme, and provided quick, accurate estimates of areas flooded for the first phase. The measurements made in the second phase, based on ground data and photo-interpretation, were used with two phase sampling statistics to estimate the area of agricultural land affected by flooding These results show that LANDSAT digital data can be used to prepare map overlays showing the extent of flooding on agricultural land and, with two phase sampling procedures, can provide acreage estimates with sampling errors of about 5 percent. This procedure provides a technique for rapidly assessing the areal extent of flood conditions on agricultural land and would provide a basis for designing a sampling framework to estimate the impact of flooding on crop production.

Canadian Journal of Remote Sensing↗

USGS2014

A new look at the Lake Superior biomass size spectrum

We synthesized data from multiple sampling programs and years to describe the Lake Superior pelagic biomass size structure. Data consisted of Coulter counts for phytoplankton, optical plankton counts for zooplankton, and acoustic surveys for pelagic prey fish. The size spectrum was stable across two time periods separated by 5 years. The primary scaling or overall slope of the normalized biomass size spectra for the combined years was −1.113, consistent with a previous estimate for Lake Superior (−1.10). Periodic dome structures within the overall biomass size structure were fit to polynomial regressions based on the observed sub-domes within the classical taxonomic positions (algae, zooplankton, and fish). This interpretation of periodic dome delineation was aligned more closely with predator–prey size relationships that exist within the zooplankton (herbivorous, predacious) and fish (planktivorous, piscivorous) taxonomic positions. Domes were spaced approximately every 3.78 log10 units along the axis and with a decreasing peak magnitude of −4.1 log 10 units. The relative position of the algal and herbivorous zooplankton domes predicted well the subsequent biomass domes for larger predatory zooplankton and planktivorous prey fish.

Lake Superior↗

USGS1979

The flow mechanism in the Chalk based on radio-isotope analyses of groundwater in the London Basin

14 C analyses of groundwaters from the Chalk of the London Basin are re-interpreted and the age of the groundwater is revised. Radio-isotope analyses are used to examine the flow mechanism in the aquifer. The evidence supports the view that a network of micro-fissures and larger intergranular pores in the matrix provides a significant part of the water pumped from Chalk wells and the major fissures distribute the water to the wells. Most of the matrix is fine-grained and contains a very old water. This diffuses into the micro-fissures and larger pores and is carried to the wells by the major fissures.

southeast England↗

USGS1994

Lake Michigan's late Quaternary limnological and climate history from ostracode, oxygen isotope, and magnetic susceptibility

The limnology of Lake Michigan has changed dramatically since the late Pleistocene in response to the expansion and contraction of continental glaciers, to differential isostatic rebound, and to climate change. The lake sediment's stratigraphic trends, magnetic susceptibility, δ 18 O, and ostracode species abundance ratios provide criteria to identify the lake's response to glacial ice and to differential isostatic rebound. The latter phenomena dominate the lake's late Pleistocene and early Holocene history. The lake's hydrological budget provides the primary linkage between the lake and climate, particularly effective moisture. Dissolved salts were stored in the lake's water column when the lake's output shifted toward evaporation, but were flushed when output shifted toward outflow. The lake's salt storage history may be interpreted from some ostracode, δ 18 O, and magnetic susceptibility records found in sediment cores. Climate change influenced the entire lake's limnological history, but became the primary limnological driver from about the middle-Holocene to the present. The complex limnological history of Lake Michigan resulted in substantial changes in the ostracode species assemblages; from about 12,000 ka to about 5,500 ka, five ostracode intervals can be identified. These ostracode intervals provide a within-lake biostratigraphy and a stratigraphic reference for reconstruction of the paleoenvironmental dynamics of the lake.

Indiana, Illinois, Michigan, Wisconsin↗

USGS2000

Geophysical evidence for the evolution of the California Inner Continental Borderland as a metamorphic core complex

We use new seismic and gravity data collected during the 1994 Los Angeles Region Seismic Experiment (LARSE) to discuss the origin of the California Inner Continental Borderland (ICB) as an extended terrain possibly in a metamorphic core complex mode. The data provide detailed crustal structure of the Borderland and its transition to mainland southern California. Using tomographic inversion as well as traditional forward ray tracing to model the wide-angle seismic data, we find little or no sediments, low (≤6.6 km/s) P wave velocity extending down to the crust-mantle boundary, and a thin crust (19 to 23 km thick). Coincident multichannel seismic reflection data show a reflective lower crust under Catalina Ridge. Contrary to other parts of coastal California, we do not find evidence for an underplated fossil oceanic layer at the base of the crust. Coincident gravity data suggest an abrupt increase in crustal thickness under the shelf edge, which represents the transition to the western Transverse Ranges. On the shelf the Palos Verdes Fault merges downward into a landward dipping surface which separates "basement" from low-velocity sediments, but interpretation of this surface as a detachment fault is inconclusive. The seismic velocity structure is interpreted to represent Catalina Schist rocks extending from top to bottom of the crust. This interpretation is compatible with a model for the origin of the ICB as an autochthonous formerly hot highly extended region that was filled with the exhumed metamorphic rocks. The basin and ridge topography and the protracted volcanism probably represent continued extension as a wide rift until ∼13 m.y. ago. Subduction of the young and hot Monterey and Arguello microplates under the Continental Borderland, followed by rotation and translation of the western Transverse Ranges, may have provided the necessary thermomechanical conditions for this extension and crustal inflow.

California↗

USGS2008

Crop area estimation using high and medium resolution satellite imagery in areas with complex topography

Reliable estimates of cropped area (CA) in developing countries with chronic food shortages are essential for emergency relief and the design of appropriate market-based food security programs. Satellite interpretation of CA is an effective alternative to extensive and costly field surveys, which fail to represent the spatial heterogeneity at the country-level. Bias-corrected, texture based classifications show little deviation from actual crop inventories, when estimates derived from aerial photographs or field measurements are used to remove systematic errors in medium resolution estimates. In this paper, we demonstrate a hybrid high-medium resolution technique for Central Ethiopia that combines spatially limited unbiased estimates from IKONOS images, with spatially extensive Landsat ETM+ interpretations, land-cover, and SRTM-based topography. Logistic regression is used to derive the probability of a location being crop. These individual points are then aggregated to produce regional estimates of CA. District-level analysis of Landsat based estimates showed CA totals which supported the estimates of the Bureau of Agriculture and Rural Development. Continued work will evaluate the technique in other parts of Africa, while segmentation algorithms will be evaluated, in order to automate classification of medium resolution imagery for routine CA estimation in the future.

Journal of Geophysical Research D: Atmospheres↗

USGS2010

Policies and practices of beach monitoring in the Great Lakes, USA: a critical review

Beaches throughout the Great Lakes are monitored for fecal indicator bacteria (typically Escherichia coli) in order to protect the public from potential sewage contamination. Currently, there is no universal standard for sample collection and analysis or results interpretation. Monitoring policies are developed by individual beach management jurisdictions, and applications are highly variable across and within lakes, states, and provinces. Extensive research has demonstrated that sampling decisions for time, depth, number of replicates, frequency of sampling, and laboratory analysis all influence the results outcome, as well as calculations of the mean and interpretation of the results in policy decisions. Additional shortcomings to current monitoring approaches include appropriateness and reliability of currently used indicator bacteria and the overall goal of these monitoring programs. Current research is attempting to circumvent these complex issues by developing new tools and methods for beach monitoring. In this review, we highlight the variety of sampling routines used across the Great Lakes and the extensive body of research that challenges comparisons among beaches. We also assess the future of Great Lakes monitoring and the advantages and disadvantages of establishing standards that are evenly applied across all beaches.

Great Lakes↗

USGS2012

Modeling the mesozoic-cenozoic structural evolution of east texas

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) recently assessed the undiscovered technically recoverable oil and gas resources within Jurassic and Cretaceous strata of the onshore coastal plain and State waters of the U.S. Gulf Coast. Regional 2D seismic lines for key parts of the Gulf Coast basin were interpreted in order to examine the evolution of structural traps and the burial history of petroleum source rocks. Interpretation and structural modeling of seismic lines from eastern Texas provide insights into the structural evolution of this part of the Gulf of Mexico basin. Since completing the assessment, the USGS has acquired additional regional seismic lines in east Texas; interpretation of these new lines, which extend from the Texas-Oklahoma state line to the Gulf Coast shoreline, show how some of the region's prominent structural elements (e.g., the Talco and Mount Enterprise fault zones, the East Texas salt basin, and the Houston diapir province) vary along strike. The interpretations also indicate that unexplored structures may lie beneath the current drilling floor. Structural restorations based upon interpretation of these lines illustrate the evolution of key structures and show the genetic relation between structural growth and movement of the Jurassic Louann Salt. 1D thermal models that integrate kinetics and burial histories were also created for the region's two primary petroleum source rocks, the Oxfordian Smackover Formation and the Cenomanian-Turonian Eagle Ford Shale. Integrating results from the thermal models with the structural restorations provides insights into the distribution and timing of petroleum expulsion from the Smackover Formation and Eagle Ford Shale in eastern Texas.

Texas↗

USGS2014

Attenuation and scattering tomography of the deep plumbing system of Mount St. Helens

We present a combined 3-D P wave attenuation, 2-D S coda attenuation, and 3-D S coda scattering tomography model of fluid pathways, feeding systems, and sediments below Mount St. Helens (MSH) volcano between depths of 0 and 18 km. High-scattering and high-attenuation shallow anomalies are indicative of magma and fluid-rich zones within and below the volcanic edifice down to 6 km depth, where a high-scattering body outlines the top of deeper aseismic velocity anomalies. Both the volcanic edifice and these structures induce a combination of strong scattering and attenuation on any seismic wavefield, particularly those recorded on the northern and eastern flanks of the volcanic cone. North of the cone between depths of 0 and 10 km, a low-velocity, high-scattering, and high-attenuation north-south trending trough is attributed to thick piles of Tertiary marine sediments within the St. Helens Seismic Zone. A laterally extended 3-D scattering contrast at depths of 10 to 14 km is related to the boundary between upper and lower crust and caused in our interpretation by the large-scale interaction of the Siletz terrane with the Cascade arc crust. This contrast presents a low-scattering, 4–6 km 2 “hole” under the northeastern flank of the volcano. We infer that this section represents the main path of magma ascent from depths greater than 6 km at MSH, with a small north-east shift in the lower plumbing system of the volcano. We conclude that combinations of different nonstandard tomographic methods, leading toward full-waveform tomography, represent the future of seismic volcano imaging.

Washington↗

USGS1969

Critical review of some multivariate procedures in the analysis of geochemical data

Simulation experiments have been conducted to examine the potential usefulness of R-mode and Q-mode factor methods in the analysis and interpretation of geochemical data. The R-mode factor analysis experiment consisted of constructing a factor model, using the model to generate a correlation matrix, and attempting to recover the model by R-mode techniques. The techniques were successful in determining the number of factors in the model, but the factor loadings could not be estimated even approximately on the basis of mathematical procedures alone. Q-mode factor methods were successful in recovering all of the properties of a model used to generate hypothetical chemical data on olivine samples , but it was necessary to use a correction previously regarded as unimportant.

Journal of the International Association for Mathe↗

USGS2022

Effects of structure and volcanic stratigraphy on groundwater and surface water flow: Hat Creek basin, California, USA

Hydrogeologic systems in the southern Cascade Range in California (USA) develop in volcanic rocks where morphology, stratigraphy, extensional structures, and attendant basin geometry play a central role in groundwater flow paths, groundwater/surface-water interactions, and spring discharge locations. High-volume springs (greater than 3 m 3 /s) flow from basin-filling (<800 ka) volcanic rocks in the Hat Creek and Fall River tributaries and contribute approximately half of the average annual flow of the Pit River, the largest tributary to Shasta Lake. A hydrogeologic conceptual framework is constructed for the Hat Creek basin combining new geologic mapping, water-well lithologic logs, a database of active faults, LiDAR mapping of faults and volcanic landforms, streamflow measurements and airborne thermal infrared remote sensing of stream temperature. These data are used to integrate the geologic structure and the volcanic and volcaniclastic stratigraphy to create a three-dimensional interpretation of the hydrogeology in the basin. Two large streamflow gains from focused groundwater discharge near Big Spring and north of Sugarloaf Peak result from geologic barriers that restrict lateral groundwater flow and force water into Hat Creek. The inferred groundwater-flow barriers divide the aquifer system into at least three leaky compartments. The two downstream compartments lose streamflow in the upstream reaches (immediately downstream of the groundwater-flow barriers) and gain in downstream reaches with the greatest inflows immediately upstream of the barriers.

California↗

USGS2019

Timescales of water-quality change in a karst aquifer, south-central Texas

Understanding the drivers and timescales over which groundwater quality changes informs groundwater management, use, and protection. To better understand timescales of water-quality change over short (daily to monthly) and long (seasonal to decadal) timescales, the U.S. Geological Survey’s National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) Enhanced Trends Network (ETN) program instrumented and sampled three wells in the Edwards aquifer in south-central Texas. The wells were instrumented to provide high-frequency continuous (subhourly) water-quality data (temperature, pH, specific conductance, and dissolved oxygen), which were augmented by the collection of discrete samples (about 6 per year) for a range of geochemical constituents (including selected isotopes and age tracers). ETN data (2013–2017) are considered with data from additional sites for the same time period, and also historical records (over more than 80 years) of climatic and hydrologic conditions. During the four-year study, hydrologic conditions transitioned from very dry to very wet. Sites in the updip/unconfined part of the aquifer showed notable changes in water level and geochemistry (1) in response to rainfall/recharge events, and (2) over the multiyear dry/wet cycle. Sites in the downdip/confined part of the aquifer showed changes in water level/spring discharge over similar timescales, although the response is more muted. Geochemistry at the downdip/confined sites, however, varied slowly and minimally, indicating that the geochemical response of the deeper aquifer is decoupled from recent hydrologic responses. Changes at the updip/unconfined sites reflect mixing with recent recharge, whereas the downdip/confined sites were dominated by mineral-solution reactions resulting from longer (decadal) residence times. Mean groundwater ages interpreted from measured age tracers and lumped parameter models range from 7 to >700 years (where mixed with premodern downdip water) but were mostly modern. The aquifer is characterized by updip-to-downdip trends in geochemistry with respect to water-rock interaction and groundwater age. Fourier spectral analysis of historical records indicate hydrologic variability has occurred at dominant periods of 30 and 15 years; in conjunction with age tracers, these results provide insight into timescales at which the aquifer’s public supply is vulnerable to changes in the water quality of recharge.

Texas↗

USGS2005

The Pinto shear zone; a Laramide synconvergent extensional shear zone in the Mojave Desert region of the southwestern United States

The Pinto shear zone is one of several Late Cretaceous shear zones within the eastern fringe of the Mesozoic magmatic arc of the southwest Cordilleran orogen that developed synchronous with continued plate convergence and backarc shortening. We demonstrate an extensional origin for the shear zone by describing the shear-zone geometry and kinematics, hanging wall deformation style, progressive changes in deformation temperature, and differences in hanging wall and footwall thermal histories. Deformation is constrained between ???74 and 68 Ma by 40Ar/39Ar thermochronology of the exhumed footwall, including multi-diffusion domain modeling of K-feldspar. We discount the interpretations, applied in other areas of the Mojave Desert region, that widespread Late Cretaceous cooling results from refrigeration due to subduction of a shallowly dipping Laramide slab or to erosional denudation, and suggest alternatively that post-intrusion cooling and exhumation by extensional structures are recorded. Widespread crustal melting and magmatism followed by extension and cooling in the Late Cretaceous are most consistent with production of a low-viscosity lower crust during anatexis and/or delamination of mantle lithosphere at the onset of Laramide shallow subduction. ?? 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Journal of Structural Geology↗

USGS2013

Andesites of the 2009 eruption of Redoubt Volcano, Alaska

Crystal-rich andesites that erupted from Redoubt Volcano in 2009 range from 57.5 to 62.5 wt.% SiO 2 and have phenocryst and phenocryst-melt relations consistent with staging in the upper crust. Early explosive products are low-silica andesites (LSA, < 58 wt.% SiO 2 ) that ascended from deeper crustal levels during or before the 6 months of precursory activity, but a broad subsequent succession to more evolved and cooler products, and predominantly effusive dome growth, are interpreted to result from progressive mobilization and mixing with differentiated magmas tapped from pre-2009 Redoubt intrusions at ~ 3–6 km depth. Initial explosions on March 23–28 ejected predominantly LSA with a uniform phenocryst assemblage of high-Al amphibole, ~ An 70 plagioclase, ortho- and clinopyroxene, FeTi oxides (890 to 960 °C), and traces of magmatic sulfide. Melt in the dominant microlite-poor LSA was compositionally uniform dacite (67–68 wt.% SiO 2 ) but ranged to rhyolite with greater microlite growth. Minor amounts of intermediate- to high-silica andesite (ISA, HSA; 59–62.5 wt.% SiO 2 ) also erupted during the early explosions and most carried rhyolitic melt (72–74 wt.% SiO 2 ). A lava dome grew following the initial tephra-producing events but was destroyed by an explosion on April 4. Ejecta from the April 4 explosion consists entirely of ISA and HSA, as does a subsequent lava dome that grew April 4–July 1; LSA was absent. Andesites from the April 4 event and from the final dome had pre-eruptive temperatures of 725–840 °C (FeTi oxides) and highly evolved matrix liquids (77–80 wt.% SiO 2 ), including in rare microlite-free pyroclasts. ISA has mixed populations of phenocrysts suggesting it is a hybrid between HSA and LSA. The last lavas from the 2009 eruption, effused May 1–July 1, are distinctly depleted in P 2 O 5 , consistent with low temperatures and high degrees of crystallization including apatite. Plagioclase–melt hygrometry and comparison to phase equilibrium experiments are consistent with pre-eruptive storage of all three magma types at 100–160 MPa (4–6 km depth), if they were close to H 2 O-saturation, coincident with the locus of shallow syn-eruptive seismicity. Deeper storage would be indicated if the magmas were CO 2 -rich. Relatively coarse-grained clinopyroxene-rich reaction rims on many LSA amphibole phenocrysts may result from slow ascent to, or storage at, depths shallow enough for the onset of appreciable H 2 O exsolution, consistent with pre-eruptive staging in the uppermost crust. We interpret that the 2009 LSA ascended from depth during the 8 or more months prior to the first eruption, but that the magma stalled and accumulated in the upper crust where its phenocryst rim and melt compositions were established. Ascent of LSA through stagnant mushy intrusions residual from earlier Redoubt activity mobilized differentiated magma pockets and interstitial liquids represented by HSA, and as LSA–HSA hybrids represented by ISA, that fed the subsequently erupted lava domes.

Alaska↗

USGS2010

Seasonal H2O and CO2 ice cycles at the Mars Phoenix landing site: 1. Prelanding CRISM and HiRISE observations

The condensation, evolution, and sublimation of seasonal water and carbon dioxide ices were characterized at the Mars Phoenix landing site from Martian northern midsummer to midspring (L s ∼ 142° – L s ∼ 60°) for the year prior to the Phoenix landing on 25 May 2008. Ice relative abundances and grain sizes were estimated using data from the Compact Reconnaissance Imaging Spectrometer for Mars and High Resolution Imaging Science Experiment aboard Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter and a nonlinear mixing model. Water ice first appeared at the Phoenix landing site during the afternoon in late summer (L s ∼ 167°) as an optically thin layer on top of soil. CO 2 ice appeared after the fall equinox. By late winter (L s ∼ 344°), the site was covered by relatively pure CO 2 ice (∼30 cm thick), with a small amount of ∼100 μ m diameter water ice and soil. As spring progressed, CO 2 ice grain sizes gradually decreased, a change interpreted to result from granulation during sublimation losses. The combined effect of CO 2 sublimation and decreasing H 2 O ice grain sizes allowed H 2 O ice to dominate spectra during the spring and significantly brightened the surface. CO 2 ice disappeared by early spring (L s ∼ 34°) and H 2 O ice by midspring (L s ∼ 59°). Spring defrosting was not uniform and occurred more rapidly over the centers of polygons and geomorphic units with relatively higher thermal inertia values.

Journal of Geophysical Research E: Planets↗

USGS1997

Multistory duplexes with forward dipping roofs, north central Brooks Range, Alaska

The Endicott Mountains allochthon has been thrust far northward over the North Slope parautochthon in the northern Brooks Range. Progressively younger units are exposed northward within the allochthon. To the south, the incompetent Hunt Fork Shale has thickened internally by asymmetric folds and thrust faults. Northward, the competent Kanayut Conglomerate forms a duplex between a floor thrust in Hunt Fork and a roof thrust in the Kayak Shale. To the north, the competent Lisburne Group forms a duplex between a floor thrust in Kayak and a roof thrust in the Siksikpuk Formation. Both duplexes formed from north vergent detachment folds whose steep limbs were later truncated by south dipping thrust faults that only locally breach immediately overlying roof thrusts. Within the parautochthon, the Kayak, Lisburne, and Siksikpuk-equivalent Echooka Formation form a duplex identical to that in the allochthon. This duplex is succeeded abruptly northward by detachment folds in Lisburne. These folds are parasitic to an anticlinorium interpreted to reflect a fault-bend folded horse in North Slope “basement,” with a roof thrust in Kayak and a floor thrust at depth/These structures constitute two northward tapered, internally deformed wedges that are juxtaposed at the base of the allochthon. Within each wedge, competent units have been shortened independently between detachments, located mainly in incompetent units. The basal detachment of each wedge cuts upsection forward (northward) to define a wedge geometry within which units dip regionally forward. These dips reflect forward decrease in internal structural thickening by forward vergent folds and hindward dipping thrust faults.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

USGS1997

Depth dependence of earthquake frequency-magnitude distributions in California: Implications for rupture initiation

Statistics of earthquakes in California show linear frequency-magnitude relationships in the range of M 2.0 to M 5.5 for various data sets. Assuming Gutenberg-Richter distributions, there is a systematic decrease in b value with increasing depth of earthquakes. We find consistent results for various data sets from northern and southern California that both include and exclude the larger aftershock sequences. We suggest that at shallow depth (∼0 to 6 km) conditions with more heterogeneous material properties and lower lithospheric stress prevail. Rupture initiations are more likely to stop before growing into large earthquakes, producing relatively more smaller earthquakes and consequently higher b values. These ideas help to explain the depth-dependent observations of foreshocks in the western United States. The higher occurrence rate of foreshocks preceding shallow earthquakes can be interpreted in terms of rupture initiations that are stopped before growing into the mainshock. At greater depth (9–15 km), any rupture initiation is more likely to continue growing into a larger event, so there are fewer foreshocks. If one assumes that frequency-magnitude statistics can be used to estimate probabilities of a small rupture initiation growing into a larger earthquake, then a small ( M 2) rupture initiation at 9 to 12 km depth is 18 times more likely to grow into a M 5.5 or larger event, compared to the same small rupture initiation at 0 to 3 km.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗