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Global change-driven use of onshore habitat impacts polar bear faecal microbiota

The gut microbiota plays a critical role in host health, yet remains poorly studied in wild species. Polar bears (Ursus maritimus), key indicators of Arctic ecosystem health and environmental change, are currently affected by rapid shifts in habitat that may alter gut homeostasis. Declining sea ice has led to a divide in the southern Beaufort Sea polar bear subpopulation such that an increasing proportion of individuals now inhabit onshore coastal regions during the open-water period (‘onshore bears’) while others continue to exhibit their typical behaviour of remaining on the ice (‘offshore bears’). We propose that bears that have altered their habitat selection in response to climate change will exhibit a distinct gut microbiota diversity and composition, which may ultimately have important consequences for their health. Here, we perform the first assessment of abundance and diversity in the faecal microbiota of wild polar bears using 16S rRNA Illumina technology. We find that bacterial diversity is significantly higher in onshore bears compared to offshore bears. The majority of unique bacterial taxa for onshore bears belonged to the phyla Proteobacteria (a proposed indicator of poor health in adult humans), whereas for offshore bears, Firmicutes (associated with adiposity) dominated. We conclude that climate-driven changes in polar bear land use are associated with distinct microbial communities. In doing so, we present the first case of global change mediated alterations in the gut microbiota of a free-roaming wild animal.

Alaska

Hibernation behavior of a federally-threatened ground squirrel: Climate change and habitat selection implications

Hibernation is an adaptation to survive periods of stress, from food limitation or harsh thermal conditions. A key question in contemporary ecology is whether rare, range-restricted species can change their behavior in response to climate change (i.e., through behavioral plasticity). The northern Idaho ground squirrel, Urocitellus brunneus (A. H. Howell, 1928), is a federally threatened species that hibernates for approximately 8 months per year within the bounds of its small range in central Idaho, USA. Changes in temperature, snow accumulation, and summer precipitation, all brought about as a result of climate change, may reduce survival or fecundity of northern Idaho ground squirrels if they cannot adapt to these climate changes. Hibernating species can respond to climate-change-induced thermal challenges in two ways: change their hibernation physiology and behavior (i.e., emergence date or number of torpor bouts) or alter their environment (i.e., change hibernacula depth or location). We explored a suite of intrinsic and extrinsic factors to document the extent to which they influenced hibernation behavior of northern Idaho ground squirrels. Emergence date was positively associated with snowpack and negatively associated with mean winter temperature. Mean minimum skin temperature was negatively associated with canopy closure and slope of a squirrel’s hibernaculum. Duration of the heterothermal period, number of euthermic bouts, and total time spent euthermic were positively associated with body mass. Immergence date and duration of the longest torpor bout were negatively associated with body mass. Warmer temperatures and less snow accumulation in the winter—caused by climate change—likely will cause altered emergence dates. Our results suggest that any future climate-induced changes in snowfall, ambient temperature, food availability, or habitat likely will impact survival of this rare ground squirrel, because such changes will cause changes in hibernation behavior, percent mass loss during hibernation, and duration of the active season when small mammals are more susceptible to predation.

Idaho

Apatite fission-track evidence for regional exhumation in the subtropical Eocene, block faulting, and localized fluid flow in east-central Alaska

The origin and antiquity of the subdued topography of the Yukon–Tanana Upland (YTU), the physiographic province between the Denali and Tintina faults, are unresolved questions in the geologic history of interior Alaska and adjacent Yukon. We present apatite fission-track (AFT) results for 33 samples from the 2300 km2 western Fortymile district in the YTU in Alaska and propose an exhumation model that is consistent with preservation of volcanic rocks in valleys that requires base level stability of several drainages since latest Cretaceous–Paleocene time. AFT thermochronology indicates widespread cooling below ∼110 °C at ∼56–47 Ma (early Eocene) and ∼44–36 Ma (middle Eocene). Samples with ∼33–27, ∼19, and ∼10 Ma AFT ages, obtained near a major northeast-trending fault zone, apparently reflect hydrothermal fluid flow. Uplift and erosion following ∼107 Ma magmatism exposed plutonic rocks to different extents in various crustal blocks by latest Cretaceous time. We interpret the Eocene AFT ages to suggest that higher elevations were eroded during the Paleogene subtropical climate of the subarctic, while base level remained essentially stable. Tertiary basins outboard of the YTU contain sediment that may account for the required >2 km of removed overburden that was not carried to the sea by the ancestral Yukon River system. We consider a climate driven explanation for the Eocene AFT ages to be most consistent with geologic constraints in concert with block faulting related to translation on the Denali and Tintina faults resulting from oblique subduction along the southern margin of Alaska.

Alaska

Implications of projected climate change for groundwater recharge in the western United States

Existing studies on the impacts of climate change on groundwater recharge are either global or basin/location-specific. The global studies lack the specificity to inform decision making, while the local studies do little to clarify potential changes over large regions (major river basins, states, or groups of states), a scale often important in the development of water policy. An analysis of the potential impact of climate change on groundwater recharge across the western United States (west of 100° longitude) is presented synthesizing existing studies and applying current knowledge of recharge processes and amounts. Eight representative aquifers located across the region were evaluated. For each aquifer published recharge budget components were converted into four standard recharge mechanisms: diffuse, focused, irrigation, and mountain-systems recharge. Future changes in individual recharge mechanisms and total recharge were then estimated for each aquifer. Model-based studies of projected climate-change effects on recharge were available and utilized for half of the aquifers. For the remainder, forecasted changes in temperature and precipitation were logically propagated through each recharge mechanism producing qualitative estimates of direction of changes in recharge only (not magnitude). Several key patterns emerge from the analysis. First, the available estimates indicate average declines of 10–20% in total recharge across the southern aquifers, but with a wide range of uncertainty that includes no change. Second, the northern set of aquifers will likely incur little change to slight increases in total recharge. Third, mountain system recharge is expected to decline across much of the region due to decreased snowpack, with that impact lessening with higher elevation and latitude. Factors contributing the greatest uncertainty in the estimates include: (1) limited studies quantitatively coupling climate projections to recharge estimation methods using detailed, process-based numerical models; (2) a generally poor understanding of hydrologic flowpaths and processes in mountain systems; (3) difficulty predicting the response of focused recharge to potential changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events; and (4) unconstrained feedbacks between climate, irrigation practices, and recharge in highly developed aquifer systems.

Journal of Hydrology

Species mixture effects and climate influence growth, recruitment and mortality in Interior West USA Populus tremuloides-conifer communities

Tree-species mixture effects (e.g. complementarity and facilitation) have been found to increase individual-tree productivity, lessen mortality and improve recruitment in forests worldwide. By promoting more efficient and complete resource use, mixture effects may also lessen individual-tree-level water stress, thus improving drought resistance. We investigated the influence of mixture effects on tree productivity, mortality and recruitment across broad compositional and moisture gradients in high-elevation Interior West US mixed-conifer communities, where Populus tremuloides (trembling aspen) is the major contributor to functional diversity. Our goal was to provide a more complete scientific foundation for managing these drought-prone, fire-excluded systems under an uncertain climate. We used landscape-scale national forest inventory data to examine mixture effects on P. tremuloides and the major associated conifer species, Pseudotsuga menziesii , Pinus contorta , Abies lasiocarpa and Picea engelmannii . Using generalized linear mixed modelling, we isolated the influences of P. tremuloides relative density and climate on tree-level (stems ≥ 12.7 cm DBH) growth, mortality and stand-level recruitment (presence/absence of new trees). Cold-season precipitation (PPT) and warm-season vapour pressure deficit (VPD) served to represent soil moisture supply and demand, respectively. Populus tremuloides growth declined as interspecific density increased. In contrast, Pinus contorta and A. lasiocarpa growth increased with P. tremuloides density. For all species except A. lasiocarpa and P. menziesii, growth increased under higher PPT and VPD. Populus tremuloides mortality increased under high VPD but not with interspecific relative density. We found limited evidence that A. lasiocarpa mortality decreased as P. tremuloides density increased. Populus tremuloides recruitment declined steeply above 25% interspecific relative density. We found a decline in conifer recruitment odds as P. tremuloides density increased, ranging from strong in P. contorta to insubstantial in P. engelmannii . Synthesis . Our findings have implications for sustaining mixed-conifer communities impacted by climate change and historical fire exclusion. Mixtures of P. tremuloides and conifers may improve conifer growth while adversely impacting P. tremuloides growth relative to pure stands. Higher conifer productivity combined with lower P. tremuloides recruitment at high conifer relative density may accelerate succession.

Journal of Ecology

Influence of land use and climate on wetland breeding birds in the Prairie Pothole region of Canada

Bird populations are influenced by a variety of factors at both small and large scales that range from the presence of suitable nesting habitat, predators, and food supplies to climate conditions and land-use patterns. We evaluated the influences of regional climate and land-use variables on wetland breeding birds in the Canada section of Bird Conservation Region 11 (CA-BCR11), the Prairie Potholes. We used bird abundance data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey, land-use data from the Prairie Farm Rehabilitation Administration, and weather data from the National Climatic Data and Information Archive to model effects of regional environmental variables on bird abundance. Models were constructed a priori using information from published habitat associations in the literature, and fitting was performed with WinBUGS using Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques. Both land-use and climate variables contributed to predicting bird abundance in CA-BCR11, although climate predictors contributed the most to improving model fit. Examination of regional effects of climate and land use on wetland birds in CA-BCR11 revealed relationships with environmental covariates that are often overlooked by small-scale habitat studies. Results from these studies can be used to improve conservation and management planning for regional populations of avifauna. ?? 2007 NRC.

Canadian Journal of Zoology

A geologic history of the north-central Appalachians, part 2: The Appalachian basin from the Silurian through the Carboniferous

The north-central Appalachians occupy a critical position within the 3000+ km-long Appalachian orogen, lying southwest of the boundary between the central and northern Appalachians (CNAB). The one-billion-year-long history of tectonic activity in the north-central Appalachians includes the assembly and breakup of a late Proterozoic supercontinent, the creation and evolution of the Appalachian orogen during the Paleozoic, and the Mesozoic transformation of the active orogen into a passive margin during Pangea's disassembly. An important part of the Middle and Late Paleozoic history is the formation and growth of the Appalachian basin, an enormous, elongate continental basin lying cratonward of the active Appalachian internides along Laurentia's eastern margin. The Appalachian basin developed out of the Taconic orogeny, the second of the four orogenies that formed and modified the character of the Appalachian orogen. Prior to the Taconic orogeny, the eastern margin of Laurentia consisted of a broad carbonate shelf facing the Theic Ocean. The Taconic orogeny obduced various Theic components, including microcontinents, magmatic arcs, and accretionary prisms, onto the carbonate shelf. The resulting Taconic highlands formed a topographic barrier between Theia and the craton's interior. Because tectonic activity in the internides continued more or less throughout the remainder of the Paleozoic, the Appalachian basin never had a direct connection with Theia. The coarse-grained molasse from the newly uplifted Taconic highland spread westward over most of the basin during the Early Silurian. Carbonate deposition gradually encroached eastward over the basin as the siliciclastic input from the southeast waned. A resurgence in the earliest Late Silurian, perhaps related to orogenesis in Newfoundland and the Maritimes, expanded the clastic wedge somewhat. Before long, however, carbonate deposition once again dominated most of the north-central basin for the remainder of the Silurian and into the Early Devonian. The Early-to-Middle Devonian Acadian orogeny began introducing siliciclastic material into the eastern part of the Appalachian basin, thereby ending the largely paralic environment that persisted from the Late Silurian. A number of deltas formed around local sediment-input centers during the Middle Devonian. Continued uplift and/or orogenesis must have continued into the Late Devonian because a vast amount of terrigenous sediment was introduced into the Appalachian basin to form the vast Upper Devonian Catskill delta. Although the principal tectonic activity appears to have centered in New England, the large volume of sediment input suggests that orogenesis may have extended southward to the north-central Appalachians. However, direct evidence of actual Acadian deformation and metamorphism is lacking at this latitude. The north-central Appalachian basin underwent a significant change during the Carboniferous. Prior to this time, the shoreline shifted laterally through transgressions and regressions largely as a function of sediment input and regional subsidence. In the Carboniferous, vertical movements in the basin became more important. During the Early Carboniferous, much of the Mauch Chunk delta was eroded in the central and western parts of the basin. At the end of the Early Carboniferous, an unconformity truncated progressively older rocks to the north toward New York. New sediment transport patterns and depositional environments within the basin during the Late Carboniferous probably reflect significant topographic and tectonic changes, not only in the hinterland, but in the basin itself, perhaps in conjunction with climatic changes. Extensive interfluvial swamps on a lower delta plain accumulated thick organic deposits which would become coal. This delta plain graded southwestward into tidal and marine environments. The Alleghany orogeny in the Early Permian interrupted deposition in much of the north-central Appalachian basin and profoundly altered its structure.

American Journal of Science

A paleolatitude approach to assessing surface temperature history for use in burial heating models

Calculations using heat flow theory as well as case histories show that over geologic time scales (10 6 years), changes in mean annual surface temperature (T s ) on the order of 10°C penetrate kilometers deep into the crust. Thus, burial heating models of sedimentary basins, which typically span kilometers in depth and persist over geological time frames, should consider T s history to increase their accuracy. In any case, T s history becomes important when it changes enough to be detected by a thermal maturation index like vitrinite reflectance, a parameter widely used to constrain burial heating models. Assessment of the general temperature conditions leading to petroleum generation indicates that changes in T s as small as 6°C can be detected by vitrinite reflectance measurements. This low temperature threshold indicates that oil and gas windows can be significantly influenced by T s history. A review of paleoclimatic factors suggests the significant and geologically resolvable factors affecting T s history are paleolatitude, long-term changes between cool and warm geological periods (climate mode), the degree to which a basin is removed from the sea (geographic isolation), and elevation or depth relative to sea level. Case studies using geologically realistic data ranges or different methods of estimating T s in a burial heating model indicate a significant impact of Ts when: (1) continental drift, subduction, tectonism and erosion significantly change paleolatitude, paleoaltitude, or paleogeography; (2) strata are at, or near, maximum burial, and changes in T s directly influence maximum burial temperature; and (3), when a significant change in T s occurs near the opening or closing of the oil or gas windows causing petroleum generation to begin or cease. Case studies show that during the burial heating and petroleum generation phase of basin development changes in climate mode alone can influence T s by about 15°C. At present, T s changes from the poles to the equator by about 50°C. Thus, in extreme cases, continental drift alone can seemingly produce T s changes on the order of 50°C over a time frame of 107 years.

International Journal of Coal Geology

Widespread initiation, reactivation, and acceleration of landslides in the northern California Coast Ranges due to extreme rainfall

Episodically to continuously active slow-moving landslides are driven by precipitation. Climate change, which is altering both the frequency and magnitude of precipitation world21 wide, is therefore predicted to have a major impact on landslides. Here we examine the behavior of hundreds of slow-moving landslides in northern California in response to large changes in annual precipitation that occurred between 2016 and 2018. We quantify the landslide displacement using repeat-pass radar interferometry and pixel offset tracking techniques on a novel dataset from the airborne NASA/JPL Uninhabited Aerial Vehicle Synthetic Aperture Radar. We found that 312 landslides were moving due to extreme rainfall during 2017, compared to 119 during 2016, which was the final year of a historic multi-year drought. However, with a return to below average rainfall in 2018, only 146 landslides remained in motion. The increased number of landslides during 2017 was primarily accommodated by landslides that were smaller than the landslides that remained active between 2016 and 2018. Furthermore, by examining a subset of 51 landslides, we found that 49 had increased velocities during 2017 when compared to 2016. Our results show that slow-moving landslides are sensitive to large changes in annual precipitation, particularly the smaller and thinner landslides that likely experience larger basal pore water pressure changes. Based on climate model predictions for the next century in California, which include increases in annual precipitation and increases in the frequency of dry-to-wet extremes, we hypothesize that there will be an overall increase in landslide activity.

California

Comparison of aquatic invertebrate communities in near-shore areas with high or low boating activity

Lakeshore areas provide important habitat for aquatic invertebrates in shallow lakes. However, these zones are prone to anthropogenic disturbances that include shoreline development, urbanization, nutrient inputs, agricultural and(or) recreational use. Among recreational uses, public access sites are often developed to accommodate boaters and facilitate lake access via boat ramps. Although the ‘foot print’ associated with boat ramp structures can be relatively small compared to total shoreline coverage, little is known about the relative effects of boating activity on littoral zones and macroinvertebrate communities. In this study, we assess the relative impact of boating-related activities on aquatic macroinvertebrate communities at high-use (primary) and low-use (secondary) boat ramps on five glacial lakes of eastern South Dakota. Macroinvertebrate assemblages were dominated by few taxa that included Chironomidae, Corixidae, Caenidae, and Amphipoda. Moreover, boat ramp use did not influence abundance or diversity of aquatic macroinvertebrates. Habitat, specifically substrate composition, was also similar between primary and secondary boat ramps despite more intense use associated with primary boat ramps. Our results support related findings that aquatic invertebrate assemblages in the Prairie Pothole Region are structured by regional environmental variability (climate, habitat, and water quality) resulting in communities with characteristically low diversity and tolerant taxa. This may explain why small-scale disturbance associated with boating activity has no discernable effect on macroinvertebrate assemblages in glacial lakes of the Prairie Pothole Region.

South Dakota

Invertebrate prey contributions to juvenile Coho Salmon diet from riparian habitats along three Alaska streams: Implications for environmental change

Stream fish rely on a mix of terrestrial and aquatic prey sources. While the importance of terrestrial invertebrates as a food source for stream fish is well documented, the role of aquatic insects that emerge from the stream as winged adult insects (aquatic winged adults) and return to the stream as prey is less understood. In this study we determined the proportion of total diet for stream-rearing juvenile Coho Salmon ( Oncorhynchus kisutch) that is derived from terrestrial and aquatic winged adult invertebrates which enter the stream from riparian habitats and consider how those cross-ecosystem prey contributions vary based on riparian habitat type. Study reaches were identified in three streams within the Kenai River watershed of Alaska that were representative of habitats found throughout the region and riparian vegetation was classified into grass/sedge, shrub and tree types using LiDAR. Juvenile Coho Salmon stomach contents were sampled seasonally in study reaches over a two-year period and ingested invertebrates were identified by taxa, life stage and origin. Our results showed that aquatic winged adult prey contributions to juvenile salmon diet were significantly lower in the grass/sedge study reach, and cross-ecosystem invertebrate prey represented a significantly higher proportion of juvenile salmon diet in the tree study reach. Invertebrate prey in the grass/sedge reach were composed primarily of the larval life stage of aquatic winged adults. These results suggest that change in riparian vegetation from tree/shrub to grass/sedge along Kenai streams as projected by regional climate change models, or that results from anthropogenic modification, will likely lead to lower availability of cross-ecosystem prey for stream fish. Management of riparian buffers along streams to preserve or increase occurrence of trees and shrubs is likely to help mitigate impacts of those possible changes.

Alaska

Trinity River Basin, Texas

In 1991 the Trinity River Basin National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) will include assessments of surface-water and ground-water quality. Initial efforts have focused on identifying water-quality issues in the basin and on the environmental factors underlying those issues. Physical characteristics described include climate, geology, soils, vegetation, physiography, and hydrology. Cultural characteristics discussed include population distribution, land use and land cover, agricultural practices, water use, an reservoir operations. Major water-quality categories are identified and some of the implications of the environmental factors for water quality are presented.

Texas

Soil water availability shapes species richness in mid-latitude shrub steppe plant communities

Questions Ecological communities are controlled by multiple, interacting abiotic and biotic factors that influence the distribution, abundance, and diversity of species. These processes jointly determine resource availability, resource competition, and ultimately species richness. For many terrestrial ecosystems in dryland climates, soil water availability is the most frequent limiting resource for plant species. We used field sampling coupled with process‐based soil water balance modeling to explore the relative importance of multiple macroclimatic, ecohydrological, and biotic variables on plant species and functional type richness at the landscape scale in dryland plant communities. Location Dryland plant communities dominated by big sagebrush ( Artemisia tridentata ) that span climatic and elevational gradients in Wyoming, USA. Methods We quantified species richness at 1,000 m 2 and used multiple regression to determine whether mean climatic conditions, multiple metrics of soil moisture from a soil water balance model (SOILWAT2), soil physical and chemical properties, and shrub stand structure (biotic) variables were related to species and functional type richness. Results Species richness varied between 16 and 54 across sites. We found that species and functional type richness were related to both macroclimate and ecohydrology, but ecohydrology explained slightly more variation than climate. Biotic variables were always secondary to macroclimate and ecohydrology in our models. Variance partitioning revealed that large portions of variability in species (~54%), forb (~47%), and grass (~40%) richness were explained by ecohydrological variables. Conclusions Our results highlight the importance of the spatial and temporal distribution of soil water for dryland plant species richness and suggest that documenting the ways in which climate, vegetation, and soil properties interact to determine soil water availability is critical for understanding biodiversity patterns in dryland plant communities. This work has relevance for other mid‐latitude, shrub‐dominated dryland plant communities where soil water availability strongly influences ecosystem structure and function.

Wyoming

Estimating fluvial discharges coincident with 21st century coastal storms modeled with CoSMoS

On the open coast, flooding is largely driven by tides, storm surge, waves, and in areas near coastal inlets, the magnitude and co-occurrence of high fluvial discharges. Statistical methods are typically used to estimate the individual probability of coastal storm and fluvial discharge occurrences for use in sophisticated flood hazard models. A challenge arises when considering possible future climate changes and the relation between the intensity of extreme coastal water levels and high fluvial discharges. In this study, the Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) is used to dynamically downscale global climate projections to local-scale storm-driven coastal water levels, including associated fluvial discharges. An efficient approach to derive 21st century projected fluvial discharges for rivers within San Francisco Bay was developed, leveraging a readily-available time-series of projected (2010 – 2100) discharge rates of the predominant river system (the “Delta”). Delta projections were used to estimate flow rates of 8 Bay rivers for the IPCC's CMIP5 RCP4.5 climate scenario. Relationships describing discharge rates, normalized by respective watershed areas, were developed and applied to projected data to generate 21st century fluvial discharge time-series for each river. Results indicate decreasing discharge rates throughout the 21 st century with the exception of extreme flows.

California

Interactive effects of water temperature and salinity on growth and mortality of eastern oysters, Crassostrea virginica: A meta-analysis using 40 years of monitoring data

Despite nearly a century of exploitation and scientific study, predicting growth and mortality rates of the eastern oyster ( Crassostrea virginica ) as a means to inform local harvest and management activities remains difficult. Ensuring that models reflect local population responses to varying salinity and temperature combinations requires locally appropriate models. Using long-term (1988 to 2015) monitoring data from Louisiana's public oyster reefs, we develop regionally specific models of temperature- and salinity-driven mortality (sack oysters only) and growth for spat (<25 mm), seed (25–75 mm), and sack (>75 mm) oyster size classes. The results demonstrate that the optimal combination of temperature and salinity where Louisiana oysters experience reduced mortality and fast growth rates is skewed toward lower salinities and higher water temperatures than previous models have suggested. Outside of that optimal range, oysters are commonly exposed to combinations of temperature and salinity that are correlated with high mortality and reduced growth. How these combinations affect growth, and to a lesser degree mortality, appears to be size class dependent. Given current climate predictions for the region and ongoing large-scale restoration activities in coastal Louisiana, the growth and mortality models are a critical step toward ensuring sustainable oyster reefs for long-term harvest and continued delivery of the ecological services in a changing environment.

Louisiana

Flooding alters plant-mediated carbon cycling independently of elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations

Plant‐mediated processes determine carbon (C) cycling and storage in many ecosystems; how plant‐associated processes may be altered by climate‐induced changes in environmental drivers is therefore an essential question for understanding global C cycling. In this study, we hypothesize that environmental alterations associated with near‐term climate change can exert strong control on plant‐associated ecosystem C cycling and that investigations along an extended hydrologic gradient may give mechanistic insight into C cycling. We utilize a mesocosm approach to investigate the response of plant, soil, and gaseous C cycling to changing hydrologic regimes and elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2) concentrations expected by 2100 in a coastal salt marsh in Louisiana, USA. Although elevated CO 2 had no significant effects on C cycling, we demonstrate that greater average flooding depth stimulated C exchange, with higher rates of labile C decomposition, plant CO 2 assimilation, and soil C respiration. Greater average flooding depth also significantly decreased the soil C pool and marginally increased the aboveground biomass C pool, leading to net losses in total C stocks. Further, flooding depths along an extended hydrologic gradient garnered insight into decomposition mechanisms that was not apparent from other data. In C‐4 dominated salt marshes, sea‐level rise will likely overwhelm effects of elevated CO 2 with climate change. Deeper flooding associated with sea‐level rise may decrease long‐term soil C pools and quicken C exchange between soil and atmosphere, thereby threatening net C storage in salt marsh habitats. Manipulative studies will be indispensable for understanding biogeochemical cycling under future conditions.

Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences

Tree-ring derived avalanche frequency and climate associations in a high-latitude, maritime climate

Snow avalanches are a natural hazard in mountainous areas worldwide with severe impacts that include fatalities, damage to infrastructure, disruption to commerce, and landscape disturbance. Understanding long-term avalanche frequency patterns, and associated climate and weather influences, improves our understanding of how climate change may affect avalanche activity. We used dendrochronological techniques to evaluate the historical frequency of large magnitude avalanches (LMAs) in the high-latitude climate of southeast Alaska, United States. We collected 434 cross sections throughout six avalanche paths near Juneau, Alaska. This resulted in 2706 identified avalanche growth disturbances between 1720 and 2018, which allowed us to reconstruct 82 years with LMA activity across three sub-regions. By combining this tree-ring-derived avalanche data set with a suite of climate and atmospheric variables and applying a generalized linear model to fit a binomial regression, we found that February and March precipitation and the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) were significant predictors of LMA activity in the study area. Specifically, LMA activity occurred during winters with substantial February and March precipitation and neutral or negative (cold) ONI values, while years not characterized by LMAs occur more frequently during warm winters (positive ONI values). Our examination of the climate-avalanche relationship in southeast Alaska sheds light on important climate variables and physical processes associated with LMA years. These results can be used to inform long-term infrastructure planning and avalanche mitigation operations in an urban area, such as Juneau, where critical infrastructure is subject to substantial avalanche hazard.

Alaska

Climate adaption and post-fire restoration of a foundational perennial in cold desert: Insights from intraspecific variation in response to weather

1.The loss of foundational but fire-intolerant perennials such as sagebrush due to increases in fire size and frequency in semiarid regions has motivated efforts to restore them, often with mixed or even no success. Seeds of sagebrush Artemisia tridentata and related species must be moved considerable distances from seed source to planting sites, but such transfers have not been guided by an understanding of local climate adaptation. Initial seedling establishment and its response to weather are a key demographic bottleneck that likely varies among subspecies and populations of sagebrush. 2.We assessed differences in survival, growth, and physiological responses of sagebrush to weather among eleven seed sources that varied in subspecies, cytotype, and climates-of-origin over 18 months following outplanting. Diploid or polyploid populations of mountain, Wyoming, and basin big sagebrush ( A.tridentata ssp. vaseyana, A.tridentata ssp. wyomingensis, and A.tridentata ssp. tridentata , respectively) were planted onto five burned sites that normally support A.t.wyomingensis with some A.t.tridentata . 3.A.t.wyomingensis had the most growth and survival, and tetraploid populations had greater survival and height than diploids. Seasonal timing of mortality varied among the subspecies/cytotypes and was more closely related to minimum temperatures than water deficit. 4.Temperatures required to induce ice formation were up to 6&deg;C more negative in 4n- A.t.tridentata and A.t.wyomingensis than other subspecies/cytotypes, indicating greater freezing avoidance. In contrast, freezing resistance of photosynthesis varied only 1&deg;C among subspecies/cytotypes, being greatest in A.t.wyomingensis and least in the subspecies normally considered most cold-adapted, A.t.vaseyana . A large spectrum of reliance on freezing-avoidance vs. freezing-tolerance was observed and corresponded to differences in post-fire survivorship among subspecies/cytotypes. Differences in water deficit responses among subspecies/cytotypes were not as strong and did not relate to survival patterns. 5. Synthesis and applications. Low temperature responses are a key axis defining climate adaptation in young sagebrush seedlings and vary more with cytotype than with subspecies, which contrasts with the traditional emphases on (i) water limitations to explain establishment in these deserts, and (ii) subspecies in selecting restoration seedings. These important and novel insights on climate adaptation are critical for seed selection and parameterizing seed transfer zones, and were made possible by incorporating weather data with survival statistics. The survival/weather statistics used here could be applied to any restoration planting or seeding to help elucidate factors contributing to success and enable adaptive management.

Journal of Applied Ecology