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At least 577 records · Page 32Linked to original sources
USGS2014

Strong influence of El Niño Southern Oscillation on flood risk around the world

El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most dominant interannual signal of climate variability and has a strong influence on climate over large parts of the world. In turn, it strongly influences many natural hazards (such as hurricanes and droughts) and their resulting socioeconomic impacts, including economic damage and loss of life. However, although ENSO is known to influence hydrology in many regions of the world, little is known about its influence on the socioeconomic impacts of floods (i.e., flood risk). To address this, we developed a modeling framework to assess ENSO’s influence on flood risk at the global scale, expressed in terms of affected population and gross domestic product and economic damages. We show that ENSO exerts strong and widespread influences on both flood hazard and risk. Reliable anomalies of flood risk exist during El Niño or La Niña years, or both, in basins spanning almost half (44%) of Earth’s land surface. Our results show that climate variability, especially from ENSO, should be incorporated into disaster-risk analyses and policies. Because ENSO has some predictive skill with lead times of several seasons, the findings suggest the possibility to develop probabilistic flood-risk projections, which could be used for improved disaster planning. The findings are also relevant in the context of climate change. If the frequency and/or magnitude of ENSO events were to change in the future, this finding could imply changes in flood-risk variations across almost half of the world’s terrestrial regions.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences↗
USGS2017

Flowering phenology shifts in response to biodiversity loss

Observational studies and experimental evidence agree that rising global temperatures have altered plant phenology—the timing of life events, such as flowering, germination, and leaf-out. Other large-scale global environmental changes, such as nitrogen deposition and altered precipitation regimes, have also been linked to changes in flowering times. Despite our increased understanding of how abiotic factors influence plant phenology, we know very little about how biotic interactions can affect flowering times, a significant knowledge gap given ongoing human-caused alteration of biodiversity and plant community structure at the global scale. We experimentally manipulated plant diversity in a California serpentine grassland and found that many plant species flowered earlier in response to reductions in diversity, with peak flowering date advancing an average of 0.6 days per species lost. These changes in phenology were mediated by the effects of plant diversity on soil surface temperature, available soil N, and soil moisture. Peak flowering dates were also more dispersed among species in high-diversity plots than expected based on monocultures. Our findings illustrate that shifts in plant species composition and diversity can alter the timing and distribution of flowering events, and that these changes to phenology are similar in magnitude to effects induced by climate change. Declining diversity could thus contribute to or exacerbate phenological changes attributed to rising global temperatures.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences↗
USGS2022

Seabird vulnerability to oil: Exposure potential, sensitivity, and uncertainty in the northern Gulf of Mexico

The northern Gulf of Mexico (nGoM) is a globally important region for oil extraction and supports a diverse assemblage of marine birds. Due to their frequent contact with surface waters, diverse foraging strategies, and the ease with which oil adheres to feathers, seabirds are particularly susceptible to hydrocarbon contamination. Given the chronic and acute exposure of seabirds to oiling and a lack of studies that focus on the exposure of seabirds to oiling in sub-tropical and tropical regions, a greater understanding of the vulnerability of seabirds to oil in the nGoM appears warranted. We present an oil vulnerability index for seabirds in the nGoM tailored to the current state of knowledge using new, spatiotemporally expensive vessel-based seabird observations. We use information on the exposure and sensitivity of seabirds to oil to rank seabird vulnerability. Exposure variables characterized the potential to encounter oil and gas (O&G). Sensitivity variables characterized the potential impact of seabirds interacting with O&G and are related to life history and productivity. We also incorporated uncertainty in each variable, identifying data gaps. We found that the percent of seabirds’ habitat defined as highly suitable within 10 km of an O&G platform ranged from 0%-65% among 24 species. Though O&G platforms only overlap with 15% of highly suitable seabird habitat, overlap occurs in areas of moderate to high vulnerability of seabirds, particularly along the shelf-slope. Productivity-associated sensitivity variables were primarily responsible for creating the gradient in vulnerability scores and had greater uncertainty than exposure variables. Highly vulnerable species (e.g., Northern gannet ( Morus bassanus )) tended to have high exposure to the water surface via foraging behaviors (e.g., plunge-diving), older age at first breeding, and an extended incubating and fledging period compared to less vulnerable species (e.g., Pomarine jaeger ( Stercorarius pomarinus )). Uncertainty related to productivity could be reduced through at-colony monitoring. Strategic seabird satellite tagging could help target monitoring efforts to colonies known to use the nGoM, and continued vessel-based observations could improve habitat characterization. As offshore energy development in the nGoM continues, managers and researchers could use these vulnerability ranks to identify information gaps to prioritize research and focal species.

northern Gulf of Mexico↗
USGS2024

Pilot framework for fish habitat assessments across tidal and non tidal waters in the Patuxent River Basin

As part of the 2014 Chesapeake Bay Watershed Agreement, all Bay States and the District of Columbia have committed to improving the condition of the Bay, which includes a goal to achieve sustainable fisheries. One outcome under that broad goal is improved effectiveness of fish habitat conservation and preservation efforts. In support of that outcome, the U.S. Geological Survey Eastern Ecological Science Center (USGS-EESC) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association’s National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science (NOAA-NCCOS) are actively developing datasets, methods, and analyses to conduct fish habitat assessments in the Chesapeake Bay watershed, guided by recommendations from a regional stakeholder workshop held by the Chesapeake Bay Program’s (CBP) Fish Habitat Action Team (FHAT) in 2018. The joint USGS and NOAA team has been collaborating on methods for conducting inland and estuarine assessments and exploring whether a seamless headwater to estuary assessment could be developed. The goals of this assessment are to benefit both State and Federal fisheries managers, help advance fisheries science, and provide beneficial information for the public. While past national and regional assessments (e.g. the National Fish Habitat Partnership National Assessment) treated inland and estuarine fish habitat conditions separately due to differences in environments, GIS data representation, and data availability, a seamless habitat assessment could be of value for a broad range of stakeholders as many fish species, several of which are invasive or under federal jurisdiction, use habitats across both inland and estuarine waters. This project developed a pilot framework, explored and tested methods necessary for a finer scale, seamless assessment across both inland and estuarine waters, and demonstrated its use. Although there was interest by the CBP FHAT for the generation of a Baywide fish habitat assessment that spanned tidal salt, tidal fresh, warm non-tidal and cold non-tidal waters, there are a myriad of implementation details and considerations around conducting a Baywide assessment across all four of these general habitat areas. Therefore, the practical need to conduct a tributary-specific pilot assessment arose. At the beginning of this pilot process, members of the FHAT were presented with a decision matrix to choose a study basin using factors such as data availability and tributary size. FHAT members chose the Patuxent River basin, which has been relatively well sampled and studied. Several spatial frameworks were considered before selection of an inclusive gridded framework for summary and analysis that represented inland drainage networks and landscape influences as well as estuarine bathymetry. A suite of landscape and in-water stressor variables were summarized into the framework and were largely generalized over time. In order to assess the viability of the framework, we chose to use species distribution modeling for each of the species to test the framework’s ability to predict habitat use of non-tidal resident, estuarine resident, and migratory species. Tessellated darter (Etheostoma olmstedi), American eel (Anguilla rostrata), and white perch (Morone americana) were chosen as illustrative fish species based on data availability, and differences in life history and habitat use. A nested modeling approach, which involved successive model runs at multiple scales (1000m, 100m, and 10m raster grids) was developed to examine differences in variable importance at different spatial scales and to enhance modeling efficiency. For white perch, a complementary modeling analysis was performed for variables available only in estuarine waters. For all testing, an ensemble modeling approach was conducted, using a suite of potential statistical techniques driven by model strength and variable predictive power. The statistical testing that we conducted was intended only to test the framework and modeling approach, and not to definitively predict all habitats where specific fish species might be present. The modeling we conducted to test the framework did have some limitations. For example, the spatial distribution of favorable habitat areas for white perch was likely influenced by the predominance of fish survey locations near the center channel of the river and the use of generalized in-water conditions. For all species, the use of juvenile and adult fish survey data limits the estimation of habitat use to those life stages. Despite such limitations of the data inputs and modeling approach, we found the framework could seamlessly predict fish habitat distribution across freshwater and tidal environments and integrate the influence of landscape stressors with local in-water factors. The developed framework presented to the Sustainable Fisheries Goal Implementation Team (GIT) and FHAT is informative and could potentially be used for other modeling applications in the Chesapeake Bay watershed and elsewhere. In particular the framework and modeling approach lend themselves to evaluating living resource distributions and underlying habitat conditions in shallow tidal waters and beyond, as recommended by the recent Comprehensive Evaluation of System Response (CESR) report from the Chesapeake Bay Program.

Maryland↗
USGS2022

Comparative behavioral ecotoxicology of Inland Silverside larvae exposed to pyrethroids across a salinity gradient

Pyrethroids, a class of commonly used insecticides, are frequently detected in aquatic environments, including estuaries. The influence that salinity has on organism physiology and the partitioning of hydrophobic chemicals, such as pyrethroids, has driven interest in how toxicity changes in saltwater compared to freshwater. Early life exposures in fish to pyrethroids cause toxicity at environmentally relevant concentrations, which can alter behavior. Behavior is a highly sensitive endpoint that influences overall organism fitness and can be used to detect toxicity of environmentally relevant concentrations of aquatic pollutants. Inland Silversides ( Menidia beryllina ), a commonly used euryhaline model fish species, were exposed from 5 days post fertilization (~1-day pre-hatch) for 96 h to six pyrethroids: bifenthrin, cyfluthrin, cyhalothrin, cypermethrin, esfenvalerate and permethrin. Exposures were conducted at three salinities relevant to brackish, estuarine habitat (0.5, 2, and 6 PSU) and across 3 concentrations, either 0.1, 1, 10, and/or 100 ng/L, plus a control. After exposure, Inland Silversides underwent a behavioral assay in which larval fish were subjected to a dark and light cycle stimuli to determine behavioral toxicity. Assessment of total distanced moved and thigmotaxis (wall hugging), used to measure hyper/hypoactivity and anxiety like behavior, respectively, demonstrate that even at the lowest concentration of 0.1 ng/L pyrethroids can induce behavioral changes at all salinities. We found that toxicity decreased as salinity increased for all pyrethroids except permethrin. Additionally, we found evidence to suggest that the relationship between log K OW and thigmotaxis is altered between the lower and highest salinities.

Science of the Total Environment↗
USGS2013

Effects of climate change and urban development on the distribution and conservation of vegetation in a Mediterranean type ecosystem

Climate and land-use changes are projected to threaten biodiversity over this century. However, few studies have considered the spatial and temporal overlap of these threats to evaluate how ongoing land-use change could affect species ranges projected to shift outside conservation areas. We evaluated climate change and urban development effects on vegetation distribution in the Southwest ecoregion, California Floristic Province, USA. We also evaluated how well a conservation network protects suitable habitat for rare plant species under these change projections and identified primary sources of uncertainty. We used consensus-based maps from three species distribution models (SDMs) to project current and future suitable habitat for 19 species representing different functional types (defined by fire-response – obligate seeders, resprouting shrubs – and life forms – herbs, subshrubs), and range sizes (large/common, small/rare). We used one spatially explicit urban growth projection; two climate models, emission scenarios, and probability thresholds applied to SDMs; and high-resolution (90 m) environmental data. We projected that suitable habitat could disappear for 4 species and decrease for 15 by 2080. Averaged centroids of suitable habitat (all species) were projected to shift tens (up to hundreds) of kilometers. Herbs showed a small-projected response to climate change, while obligate seeders could suffer the greatest losses. Several rare species could lose suitable habitat inside conservation areas while increasing area outside. We concluded that (i) climate change is more important than urban development for vegetation habitat loss in this ecoregion through 2080 due to diminishing amounts of undeveloped private land in this region; (ii) the existing conservation plan, while extensive, may be inadequate to protect plant diversity under projected patterns of climate change and urban development, (iii) regional assessments of the dynamics of the drivers of biodiversity change based on high-resolution environmental data and consensus predictive mapping, such as this study, are necessary to identify the species expected to be the most vulnerable and to meaningfully inform regional-scale conservation.

California↗
USGS2009

Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) smolt production: the relative importance of survival and body growth

The complex life history of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) coupled with interacting abiotic and biotic factors leads to extreme demographic variability across the species' range. Our goal was to evaluate the relative importance of survival and body growth in determining smolt production across space and time. We used passive integrated transponder tags and capture-mark-recapture analyses to estimate survival, emigration, and growth for six cohorts of presmolt Atlantic salmon in two streams (three cohorts per stream) in New England, USA. We observed remarkable among-cohort consistency in mean monthly survival during a 17-month period from age-0+ autumn to age-2+ spring yet high variability in monthly survival over shorter time intervals (seasons). Despite this latter variability, survival did not translate into amongcohort differences in proportions of age-2+ versus age-3+ smolts. Alternatively, the high variability across seasons and cohorts in mean individual growth rate did lead to differences in within-cohort proportions of age-2+ versus age-3+ smolts (regardless of stream). We conclude that in our two small study streams, variability in growth and size impacted smolt age and, ultimately, smolt production. Density-dependent effects on growth at the scale of the entire study site represent a possible mechanism underlying our observations.

Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences↗
USGS2023

Caddisfly dives for oviposition: Record-shattering depths and poor life choices in a dammed river system

Oviposition is a critical step in the life cycles of aquatic insects. Adult caddisflies exhibit a variety of oviposition methods. In some species, females enter freshwaters to oviposit on submerged substrates. Here, we compile information on North American caddisflies that are known to dive and swim to oviposit and have sexually dimorphic leg characteristics that may be adaptations for swimming, diving, or both. We also report unexpected underwater captures of adult females of 3 caddisfly species in Willamette Basin reservoirs in Oregon, USA, including the deepest dive depths ever recorded for adult female caddisflies. From these captures, we note sexually dimorphic leg widening in the species Hydropsyche centra Ross, 1938 for the first time, confirm widened mesothoracic leg segments of Hydropsyche occidentalis Banks, 1900 adult females, and note fringes of long hairs on meso- and metathoracic tibiae and basal tarsal segments of Hydroptila argosa Ross, 1938 females. We also note fringes of long hairs on the meso- and metathoracic legs of Hydroptila ajax Ross, 1938 females from the banks of the Willamette River. The presumed oviposition attempts of caddisflies underwater in large, deep reservoirs suggest that these caddisflies may misinterpret oviposition cues in altered habitats and waste reproductive efforts. Greater understanding of caddisfly oviposition methods and abilities may be important for long-term conservation and restoration efforts supporting biodiversity in freshwater habitats.

Oregon↗
USGS2017

Human infectious disease burdens decrease with urbanization but not with biodiversity

nfectious disease burdens vary from country to country and year to year due to ecological and economic drivers. Recently, Murray et al. (Murray CJ et al . 2012 Lancet 380 , 2197–2223. ( doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(12)61689-4 )) estimated country-level morbidity and mortality associated with a variety of factors, including infectious diseases, for the years 1990 and 2010. Unlike other databases that report disease prevalence or count outbreaks per country, Murray et al. report health impacts in per-person disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), allowing comparison across diseases with lethal and sublethal health effects. We investigated the spatial and temporal relationships between DALYs lost to infectious disease and potential demographic, economic, environmental and biotic drivers, for the 60 intermediate-sized countries where data were available and comparable. Most drivers had unique associations with each disease. For example, temperature was positively associated with some diseases and negatively associated with others, perhaps due to differences in disease agent thermal optima, transmission modes and host species identities. Biodiverse countries tended to have high disease burdens, consistent with the expectation that high diversity of potential hosts should support high disease transmission. Contrary to the dilution effect hypothesis, increases in biodiversity over time were not correlated with improvements in human health, and increases in forestation over time were actually associated with increased disease burden. Urbanization and wealth were associated with lower burdens for many diseases, a pattern that could arise from increased access to sanitation and healthcare in cities and increased investment in healthcare. The importance of urbanization and wealth helps to explain why most infectious diseases have become less burdensome over the past three decades, and points to possible levers for further progress in improving global public health.

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B:↗
USGS2008

Hydrogeology and water quality of the Leetown area, West Virginia

The U.S. Geological Survey’s Leetown Science Center and the co-located U.S. Department of Agriculture’s National Center for Cool and Cold Water Aquaculture both depend on large volumes of cold clean ground water to support research operations at their facilities. Currently, ground-water demands are provided by three springs and two standby production wells used to augment supplies during periods of low spring flow. Future expansion of research operations at the Leetown Science Center is dependent on assessing the availability and quality of water to the facilities and in locating prospective sites for additional wells to augment existing water supplies. The hydrogeology of the Leetown area, West Virginia, is a structurally complex karst aquifer. Although the aquifer is a karst system, it is not typical of most highly cavernous karst systems, but is dominated by broad areas of fractured rock drained by a relatively small number of solution conduits. Characterization of the aquifer by use of fluorometric tracer tests, a common approach in most karst terranes, therefore only partly defines the hydrogeologic setting of the area. In order to fully assess the hydrogeology and water quality in the vicinity of Leetown, a multi-disciplinary approach that included both fractured rock and karst research components was needed. The U.S. Geological Survey developed this multi-disciplinary research effort to include geologic, hydrologic, geophysical, geographic, water-quality, and microbiological investigations in order to fully characterize the hydrogeology and water quality of the Leetown area, West Virginia. Detailed geologic and karst mapping provided the framework on which hydrologic investigations were based. Fracture trace and lineament analysis helped locate potential water-bearing fractures and guided installation of monitoring wells. Monitoring wells were drilled for borehole geophysical surveys, water-quality sampling, water-level measurements, and aquifer tests to characterize the quality of water and the hydraulic properties of the aquifer. Surface geophysical surveys provided a 3-dimensional view of bedrock resistivity in order to assess geologic and lithologic controls on ground-water flow. Borehole geophysical surveys were conducted in monitoring wells to assess the storage and movement of water in subsurface fractures. Numerous single-well, multi-well, and straddle packer aquifer tests and step-drawdown tests were conducted to define the hydraulic properties of the aquifer and to assess the role of bedrock fractures and solution conduits in the flow of ground water. Water samples collected from wells and springs were analyzed to assess the current quality of ground water and provide a baseline for future assessment. Microbiological sampling of wells for indicator bacteria and human and animal DNA provided an analysis of agricultural and suburban development impacts on ground-water quality. Light detection and ranging (LiDAR) data were analyzed to develop digital elevation models (DEMs) for assessing sinkhole distribution, to provide elevation data for development of a ground-water flow model, and to assess the distribution of major fractures and faults in the Leetown area. The flow of ground water in the study area is controlled by lithology and geologic structure. Bedrock, especially low permeability units such as the shale Martinsburg Formation and the Conococheague Limestone, act as barriers to water flowing down gradient and across bedding. This retardation of cross-strike flow is especially pronounced in the Leetown area, where bedding typically dips at steep angles. Highly permeable fault and fracture zones that disrupt the rocks in cross-strike directions provide avenues through which ground water can flow laterally across or through strata of low primary permeability. Significant strike parallel thrust faults and cross-strike faults typically coincide with larger solution conduits and act as drains for the more pervasive network of interconnected diffuse fractures. Results of borehole geophysical surveys indicate that although numerous fractures may intersect a borehole, only one or two of the fractures typically transmit most of the water to a well. The diffuse-flow dominated network of fractures that provides the majority of storage occupies only a small proportion of the total aquifer volume but constitutes the majority of porosity within the aquifer. Solution conduits, while occupying a relatively small volume of the overall aquifer, are especially important because they serve as primary drains for the ground-water flow system. Surface resistivity maps and cross-sectionsshow anomalous areas of low resistivities coincident with the prevailing geologic strike at N. 20º E., with major cross-strike faults, and with major springs in the region. Transmissivity derived from straddle packer tests was highly variable, and ranged over three orders of magnitude (1.8 x 10 -6 to 5.9 x 10 -3 ft 2 /d) in diffuse-flow fractures. A similar large variability in transmissivity was documented by single- and multi-well aquifer tests conducted in conduit-flow dominated portions of the aquifer (2.0 x 10 3 to 1.4 x 10 4 ft 2 /d) in lowland areas immediately adjacent to the Leetown Science Center. A stream-gaging station installed on Hopewell Run near the point where the stream exits the Leetown watershed indicates average daily streamflow for the Hopewell Run of approximately 11.2 ft 3 /s, and ranged from a minimum of 1.80 ft 3 /s on September 28, 2005, to a maximum of 73.0 ft 3 /s on December 11, 2003. Base-flow (ground-water) discharge surveys identified numerous small seeps adjacent to streams in the area. Hydrographs of the stage of Balch Spring show rapid response to individual storms. Strong correlation of the flow of Hopewell Run and Balch Spring indicates the nearby losing stream reach is partly responsible for higher fluctuations in the stage of Balch Spring. A water budget for the study period (2003-2005), based on measured precipitation and hydrograph analyses, is expressed as Precipitation (38.60 in/yr) = Surface Runoff (1.36 in/yr) + Ground-Water Discharge (17.73 in/yr) + Evapotranspiration (24.23 in/yr) – Change in storage (4.72 in/yr). Flow of ground water through the epikarst, a shallow zone of intensely weathered rock and regolith, can be rapid (on the order of days or weeks) as flow is concentrated in solution conduits. Flow within the intermediate and deeper zones is typically much slower. Eight dye-tracer tests conducted in the Leetown area found ground-water flow patterns to be divergent, with velocities ranging from about 12.5 to 610 ft/day and a median velocity of 50 ft/day. Estimates of ground-water age in carbonate rocks in the region are on the order of 15 years in the shallower portions of the aquifer to 50 years or older for deeper portions of the aquifer. Shallow springs can have a significant component of fairly young water (< 5 years in age). Ground-water samples collected from 16 sites (12 wells and 4 springs) in the Leetown area were analyzed for more than 340 constituents. Only turbidity, indicator bacteria, and radon were typically present in concentrations exceeding U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) drinking-water or aquatic life standards.

West Virginia↗
USGS2002

Meeting ecological and societal needs for freshwater

Human society has used freshwater from rivers, lakes, groundwater, and wetlands for many different urban, agricultural, and industrial activities, but in doing so has overlooked its value in supporting ecosystems. Freshwater is vital to human life and societal well-being, and thus its utilization for consumption, irrigation, and transport has long taken precedence over other commodities and services provided by freshwater ecosystems. However, there is growing recognition that functionally intact and biologically complex aquatic ecosystems provide many economically valuable services and long-term benefits to society. The short-term benefits include ecosystem goods and services, such as food supply, flood control, purification of human and industrial wastes, and habitat for plant and animal life—and these are costly, if not impossible, to replace. Long-term benefits include the sustained provision of those goods and services, as well as the adaptive capacity of aquatic ecosystems to respond to future environmental alterations, such as climate change. Thus, maintenance of the processes and properties that support freshwater ecosystem integrity should be included in debates over sustainable water resource allocation. The purpose of this report is to explain how the integrity of freshwater ecosystems depends upon adequate quantity, quality, timing, and temporal variability of water flow. Defining these requirements in a comprehensive but general manner provides a better foundation for their inclusion in current and future debates about allocation of water resources. In this way the needs of freshwater ecosystems can be legitimately recognized and addressed. We also recommend ways in which freshwater ecosystems can be protected, maintained, and restored. Freshwater ecosystem structure and function are tightly linked to the watershed or catchment of which they are a part. Because riverine networks, lakes, wetlands, and their connecting groundwaters, are literally the “sinks” into which landscapes drain, they are greatly influenced by terrestrial processes, including many human uses or modifications of land and water. Freshwater ecosystems, whether lakes, wetlands, or rivers, have specific requirements in terms of quantity, quality, and seasonality of their water supplies. Sustainability normally requires these systems to fluctuate within a natural range of variation. Flow regime, sediment and organic matter inputs, thermal and light characteristics, chemical and nutrient characteristics, and biotic assemblages are fundamental defining attributes of freshwater ecosystems. These attributes impart relatively unique characteristics of productivity and biodiversity to each ecosystem. The natural range of variation in each of these attributes is critical to maintaining the integrity and dynamic potential of aquatic ecosystems; therefore, management should allow for dynamic change. Piecemeal approaches cannot solve the problems confronting freshwater ecosystems. Scientific definitions of the requirements to protect and maintain aquatic ecosystems are necessary but insufficient for establishing the appropriate distribution between societal and ecosystem water needs. For scientific knowledge to be implemented science must be connected to a political agenda for sustainable development. We offer these recommendations as a beginning to redress how water is viewed and managed in the United States: (1) Frame national and regional water management policies to explicitly incorporate freshwater ecosystem needs, particularly those related to naturally variable flow regimes and to the linking of water quality with water quantity; (2) Define water resources to include watersheds, so that freshwaters are viewed within a landscape, or systems context; (3) Increase communication and education across disciplines, especially among engineers, hydrologists, economists, and ecologists to facilitate an integrated view of freshwater resources; (4) Increase restoration efforts, using well-grounded ecological principles as guidelines; (5) Maintain and protect the remaining freshwater ecosystems that have high integrity; and (6) Recognize the dependence of human society on naturally functioning ecosystems.

Ecological Applications↗
USGS2017

Recruitment phenology and pelagic larval duration in Caribbean amphidromous fishes

Amphidromous fishes are major components of oceanic tropical island stream ecosystems, such as those of the Caribbean island, Puerto Rico. Fishes with this life history face threats related to the requirement for connectivity between freshwater and marine environments during early life stages. Pelagic larval duration and recruitment phenology are 2 early life-history processes that are crucial for the biology, ecology, conservation, and management of amphidromous fishes. However, these processes are understudied in the Caribbean in general and have never been quantified in Puerto Rico. We quantified recruit abundance, recruitment phenology, and pelagic larval duration of several Caribbean amphidromous fish species in multiple rivers in Puerto Rico and explored the effects of environmental variables on recruit abundances. Two fish taxa—sirajo goby ( Sicydium spp.) and River Goby ( Awaous banana )—were exceptionally abundant as postlarvae and recruited to Caribbean rivers in pulsed migration episodes that were periodic at annual and lunar scales. Sirajo goby and River Goby recruit abundances varied among rivers, were greater at sunrise than at sunset, and were positively related to river discharge. The pelagic larval duration of 4 fish taxa ranged from a minimum of 28 d to a maximum of 103 d with means between 43 ± 7 d (SD) and 65 ± 11 d. We identified the last-quarter moon phase during the months of June through January as periods of maximum amphidromous fish recruitment to freshwater streams. The results and conclusions of our study can be applied to identify critical times to maintain river–ocean connectivity and stream flow for the benefit of the amphidromous fish population dynamics, stream ecology, and natural resources of the Caribbean.

Puerto Rico↗
USGS2025

Estimated average annualized tsunami losses for the United States

Tsunami hazards are substantial threats to coastal communities across the United States (U.S.) and its territories. U.S. states and territories collaborate through the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP) to develop their own tsunami-hazard information for outreach and evacuation planning. An effort to curate this tsunami-hazard information to support comprehensive risk analysis at the national level has not yet been completed. In support of this effort, the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) collaborated with the NTHMP, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) starting in 2023. This collaboration included the collection and analysis of existing tsunami hazard data and methods in the U.S. Tsunami subject matter experts identified and selected scientifically defensible methods for estimating the risks to buildings and populations in coastal communities. These efforts may support decision making regarding resilience policies, priorities, strategies and funding levels. Tsunamis can be triggered by earthquakes, subaerial or submarine landslides, volcanic eruptions, glacial calving, near-earth objects, weather or other events. These events can cause severe destruction, injuries, and loss of life due to powerful currents and flooding. Tsunamis pose a substantial threat to the western United States and all U.S. territories, as described below. ■ Hawaii is threatened by distant tsunamis due to its central location in the Pacific Ocean basin and has a history of local events. ■ Alaska, particularly the Aleutian Islands, faces local tsunami threats due to proximity to the Alaska-Aleutian Subduction Zone, as well as distant tsunamis from around the Pacific Ocean basin. ■ The western coast of the U.S. is threatened by distant tsunamis from around the Pacific Ocean basin and local source tsunamis from earthquakes generated within the Cascadia Subduction Zone in the Pacific Northwest. ■ American Samoa faces local tsunami threats from earthquakes generated in the nearby Tonga Trench, as well as distant tsunami threats. ■ Guam and the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands are threatened by local tsunamis from the nearby Mariana Subduction Zone, as well as distant sources from around the Pacific Ocean Basin. ■ Puerto Rico and the United States Virgin Islands are threatened by multiple local and distant tsunami sources, such as the Puerto Rico Trench (PRT), given their location in the complex seismic region of the Caribbean Sea. Several historical events stand out because of their catastrophic impacts. ■ In the Pacific Northwest, the 1700 Cascadia earthquake caused a tsunami that affected coastal Native American communities, though the extent of the damage is not fully documented (Ludwin, et al., 2005). ■ In Puerto Rico, the 1918 earthquake triggered a tsunami that caused $77 million in damage in 2022 dollars and 116 fatalities, primarily along the western coast (Coffman et al., 1982). ■ The 1946 Aleutian Islands earthquake triggered a massive tsunami that devastated Hilo, Hawaii, killing 158 people and resulting in approximately $375 million in damage (adjusted to 2022 dollars) (Fisher et al., 2023). ■ The 1964 Alaska earthquake (M 9.2) generated tsunamis that caused severe destruction in some communities across Alaska, Oregon, and California. This disaster led to a total of 124 fatalities and approximately $2.9 billion in property damage (adjusted to 2022 dollars) (Brocher et al., 2014) (Alaska Science Center, 2024). ■ In American Samoa, a tsunami generated by the 2009 Samoa earthquake (Mw 8.1) caused widespread devastation, resulting in 34 confirmed fatalities (Apatu et al., 2013) and economic losses exceeding $160 million (adjusted to 2022 dollars) (DHS, 2011). More recent events, including the 2010 Chile earthquake, the 2011 Japan earthquake, and the 2022 Tonga volcanic eruption, resulted in millions of dollars in damage to numerous ports and harbors in the U.S. South Pacific territories, Hawaii, and along the west coast of the U.S. (Lynett, et al., 2022) (Wilson, et al., 2013). Since these events, the expansion of the built environment in lowlying areas along the coast has increased the exposure of buildings and people, thereby further escalating community risk from tsunamis. This report provides a comprehensive national assessment of earthquake-generated tsunami risk. It does not include impacts from tsunamis generated by landslides, volcanic eruptions, glacial calving, near-earth objects, weather, or other events. This study is based on the best available hazard data from the U.S. Pacific Coast (California, Oregon and Washington), Alaska, Hawaii, U.S. Pacific Territories (American Samoa, Guam and Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands) and Caribbean Territories (Puerto Rico and United States Virgin Islands). Tsunami risks associated with states along the East Coast, Gulf Coast, and Great Lakes are not included in this study because Hazus 6.1 software (FEMA 2024a) does not currently include the ability to analyze tsunami risk in those states. Once modeling capabilities and tsunami hazard data become available for additional states, FEMA may incorporate these data into future editions of this study.

Alaska, California, Hawaii Oregon, Washington↗
USGS2003

Sexual selection affects local extinction and turnover in bird communities

Predicting extinction risks has become a central goal for conservation and evolutionary biologists interested in population and community dynamics. Several factors have been put forward to explain risks of extinction, including ecological and life history characteristics of individuals. For instance, factors that affect the balance between natality and mortality can have profound effects on population persistence. Sexual selection has been identified as one such factor. Populations under strong sexual selection experience a number of costs ranging from increased predation and parasitism to enhanced sensitivity to environmental and demographic stochasticity. These findings have led to the prediction that local extinction rates should be higher for species/populations with intense sexual selection. We tested this prediction by analyzing the dynamics of natural bird communities at a continental scale over a period of 21 years (1975-1996), using relevant statistical tools. In agreement with the theoretical prediction, we found that sexual selection increased risks of local extinction (dichromatic birds had on average a 23% higher local extinction rate than monochromatic species). However, despite higher local extinction probabilities, the number of dichromatic species did not decrease over the period considered in this study. This pattern was caused by higher local turnover rates of dichromatic species, resulting in relatively stable communities for both groups of species. Our results suggest that these communities function as metacommunities, with frequent local extinctions followed by colonization. Anthropogenic factors impeding dispersal might therefore have a significant impact on the global persistence of sexually selected species.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences↗
USGS2018

The effects of rearing temperature on American glass eels

American eels are declining throughout their range requiring a better understanding of physiological requirements of all life stages and optimal conditions for laboratory rearing and aquaculture. American glass eels (Anguilla rostrata) were housed for 3 weeks at 14˚C, 18˚C, 22˚C, or 26˚C to determine optimal juvenile rearing temperature in the laboratory. All treatments exhibited weight gain over the course of the study except the 14˚C treatment; however, there were only marginal differences in final weight between the 18˚C and 14˚C treatments and no differences in length. Variation in length and weight generally increased as temperature increased with significant differences in the standard error of weight between 14˚C and the 22˚C and 26˚C treatments and between 18˚C and 26˚C. Mortality was significantly greater than expected by chance at 26˚C (7 deaths) and no mortality was observed at 14˚C. Body condition (based on the residuals from the weight-length relationships), conversely, was lowest in the 14˚C treatment. Considering all response variables, optimal laboratory rearing conditions were observed between 18˚C - 22˚C. Within a week of experimentation, evidence of gas bubble disease was observed and by completion noted in all treatments except at 14˚C, likely as a function of decreased gas solubility at warmer temperatures. Levels of total gas pressure (103% - 108%) and Δp (28 - 54 mm Hg) values may account for the gas bubbles observed.

Agricultural Sciences↗
USGS2012

Estimating risks to aquatic life using quantile regression

One of the primary goals of biological assessment is to assess whether contaminants or other stressors limit the ecological potential of running waters. It is important to interpret responses to contaminants relative to other environmental factors, but necessity or convenience limit quantification of all factors that influence ecological potential. In these situations, the concept of limiting factors is useful for data interpretation. We used quantile regression to measure risks to aquatic life exposed to metals by including all regression quantiles (τ = 0.05–0.95, by increments of 0.05), not just the upper limit of density (e.g., 90 th quantile). We measured population densities (individuals/0.1 m 2 ) of 2 mayflies (Rhithrogena spp., Drunella spp.) and a caddisfly (Arctopsyche grandis), aqueous metal mixtures (Cd, Cu, Zn), and other limiting factors (basin area, site elevation, discharge, temperature) at 125 streams in Colorado. We used a model selection procedure to test which factor was most limiting to density. Arctopsyche grandis was limited by other factors, whereas metals limited most quantiles of density for the 2 mayflies. Metals reduced mayfly densities most at sites where other factors were not limiting. Where other factors were limiting, low mayfly densities were observed despite metal concentrations. Metals affected mayfly densities most at quantiles above the mean and not just at the upper limit of density. Risk models developed from quantile regression showed that mayfly densities observed at background metal concentrations are improbable when metal mixtures are at US Environmental Protection Agency criterion continuous concentrations. We conclude that metals limit potential density, not realized average density. The most obvious effects on mayfly populations were at upper quantiles and not mean density. Therefore, we suggest that policy developed from mean-based measures of effects may not be as useful as policy based on the concept of limiting factors.

Colorado↗
USGS2017

Using state-and-transition modeling to account for imperfect detection in invasive species management

Buffelgrass, a highly competitive and flammable African bunchgrass, is spreading rapidly across both urban and natural areas in the Sonoran Desert of southern and central Arizona. Damages include increased fire risk, losses in biodiversity, and diminished revenues and quality of life. Feasibility of sustained and successful mitigation will depend heavily on rates of spread, treatment capacity, and cost–benefit analysis. We created a decision support model for the wildland–urban interface north of Tucson, AZ, using a spatial state-and-transition simulation modeling framework, the Tool for Exploratory Landscape Scenario Analyses. We addressed the issues of undetected invasions, identifying potentially suitable habitat and calibrating spread rates, while answering questions about how to allocate resources among inventory, treatment, and maintenance. Inputs to the model include a state-and-transition simulation model to describe the succession and control of buffelgrass, a habitat suitability model, management planning zones, spread vectors, estimated dispersal kernels for buffelgrass, and maps of current distribution. Our spatial simulations showed that without treatment, buffelgrass infestations that started with as little as 80 ha (198 ac) could grow to more than 6,000 ha by the year 2060. In contrast, applying unlimited management resources could limit 2060 infestation levels to approximately 50 ha. The application of sufficient resources toward inventory is important because undetected patches of buffelgrass will tend to grow exponentially. In our simulations, areas affected by buffelgrass may increase substantially over the next 50 yr, but a large, upfront investment in buffelgrass control could reduce the infested area and overall management costs.

Arizona↗
USGS2023

Simulating debris flow and levee formation in the 2D shallow flow model D-Claw: Channelized and unconfined flow

Debris flow runout poses a hazard to life and infrastructure. The expansion of human population into mountainous areas and onto alluvial fans increases the need to predict and mitigate debris flow runout hazards. Debris flows on unconfined alluvial fans can exhibit spontaneous self-channelization through levee formation that reduces lateral spreading and extends runout distances compared to unchannelized flows. Here we modify the D-Claw shallow flow model in two ways that are hypothesized to generate levees. We evaluate these modifications with observations from a large-scale flume experiment. We investigate model performance when including the effect of two different friction sub-models, as well as the inclusion of segregation effects on granular permeability. Results show that, for a wide range of plausible model input parameters, simulations including the effects of segregation promoted modeled levee formation, whereas simulations without the effects of segregation did not create levees. Further, using a forward predictive framework, simulations with the effects of segregation were more likely to better model the magnitude of debris flow depth and runout distance, whereas simulation timing of the debris flow was affected by the choice of friction sub-model. Our results indicate that including the effects of segregation on granular permeability can improve the likelihood of better predictions of debris flow depth and runout prior to an event occurring.

Earth and Space Science↗