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USGS2020

Forest bird trends within Haleakala National Park

In 2017, the comprehensive east Maui bird surveys allowed for an update in status and evaluation of trends in bird populations within Haleakalā National Park. This report describes a finer-scale analysis of the park lands, distinguishing between the upper Kīpahulu Valley plus adjacent high-elevation areas compared to the rest of the park. I report abundance estimates and assess trends for six native and three non-native bird species within the park. Overall abundance estimates are consistent with those in previous reports, but there is some evidence for different densities between the two areas of the park, and relative densities of some species may vary from survey to survey. With two possible exceptions (native ‘apapane and non-native red-billed leiothrix), recent trends indicate that bird populations are in decline.

Hawai'i↗

USGS2020

Potomac tributary report: A summary of trends in tidal water quality and associated factors

The Potomac Tributary Report summarizes change over time in a suite of monitored tidal water quality parameters and associated potential drivers of those trends for the time period 1985 – 2018, and provides a brief description of the current state of knowledge explaining these observed changes. Water quality parameters described include surface total nitrogen (TN), surface total phosphorus (TP), spring and summer surface chlorophyll a, summer bottom dissolved oxygen (DO) concentrations, and Secchi disk depth (a measure of water clarity). Results for annual surface water temperature, bottom TP, bottom TN, surface ortho-phosphate (PO4), surface dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN), surface total suspended solids (TSS), and summer surface DO concentrations are provided in an Appendix. Drivers discussed include physiographic watershed characteristics, changes in N, P, and sediment loads from the watershed to tidal waters, expected effects of changing land use, and implementation of nutrient management and natural resource conservation practices. Factors internal to estuarine waters that also play a role as drivers are described including biogeochemical processes, physical forces such as wind-driven mixing of the water column, and biological factors such as phytoplankton biomass and the presence of submersed aquatic vegetation. Total nutrient concentrations have been decreasing at most stations in the Potomac River over the long-term, with improvements persisting in the last 10 years as well. These trends follow from the decreasing discharge from TN and TP sources in the watershed. The TP source reductions are not as apparent in the direct loads to the river, which may be part of the reason that tidal nutrient concentrations are not decreasing at as many stations in the short-term as the long-term. While degrading chlorophyll a and Secchi depth trends at several Potomac monitoring stations are concerning, recent improvements in summer oxygen concentrations are promising. The findings that chlorophyll a concentrations in the lower Potomac have either leveled out or improved may suggest a smaller amount of phytoplankton biomass available to fuel summer oxygen depletion. The responses of chlorophyll a, Secchi depth, and bottom DO are mixed in the Potomac tidal waters, but there are multiple possible reasons for this lag in response. Continuing to track water quality response and investigating these possibilities are important steps to understanding water quality patterns and changes in the Potomac River.

Pennsylvania, Virginia, West Viginia↗

USGS2019

Conservation status of the world’s swan populations, Cygnus sp. and Coscoroba sp.: a review of current trends and gaps in knowledge

Recent estimates of the world’s swan Cygnus sp. populations indicate that there are currently between 1.5–1.6 million birds in 8 species, including the Coscoroba Swan Coscoroba coscoroba as an honorary swan. Monitoring programmes in Europe and North America indicate that most populations increased following the introduction of national and international legislation to protect the species during the early- to mid-20th century. A switch from feeding primarily on aquatic vegetation to foraging on farmland (especially high-energy arable crops) in winter during the second half of the 20th century, is also considered a contributing factor. Trumpeter Swans Cygnus buccinator famously increased from just 69 individuals known to exist in 1935 (although small numbers were missed) to c. 76,000 at the present time, and most of the northern hemisphere swan populations have continued to show increasing/stable trends over the last 20 years. The exception to this pattern is a decline since 1995 in the Northwest European Bewick’s Swan population, following an increase in its population size during the 1970s–1980s, which is now being addressed through implementation of an International Single Species Action Plan. A proposal to change enforcement regulations of the Migratory Bird Treaty Act in the United States is also of concern, as potentially undermining protection for Trumpeter Swans in North America, illustrating the importance of politics and legislation as well as on-the-ground measures for species conservation. Elsewhere, less is known about the trends and conservation status for swans in central and eastern Asia, though count and research programmes introduced in China, added to those underway in Japan and Korea, have recently greatly enhanced our knowledge of swan populations on the East Asian flyway. Trends for the Black Swan Cygnus atratus in Australia and for the Black-necked Swan Cygnus melancoryphus in South America are also poorly known, because of the large numbers involved for the former and a lack of coordinated counts across difficult terrain for the latter. These southern hemisphere species are considered vulnerable to water resource developments ( i.e . where diversion of water is shrinking wetlands), and to droughts associated with El Nino events and climate change. More extensive monitoring is therefore required to determine whether swan populations and species are stable, fluctuating or in decline.

Wildfowl↗

USGS2010

Establishing a nationwide baseline of historical burn-severity data to support monitoring of trends in wildfire effects and national fire policies

There is a need to provide agency leaders, elected officials, and the general public with summary information regarding the effects of large wildfires. Recently, the Wildland Fire Leadership Council (WFLC), which implements and coordinates National Fire Plan (NFP) and Federal Wildland Fire Management Policies adopted a strategy to monitor the effectiveness and effects of the National Fire Plan and the Healthy Forests Restoration Act. One component of this strategy is to assess the environmental impacts of large wildland fires and identify the trends of burn severity on all lands across the United States. To that end, WFLC has sponsored a 6-year project, Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity (MTBS), which requires the U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service (USDA-FS) and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to map and assess the burn severity for all large current and historical fires. Using Landsat data and the differenced Normalized Burn Ratio (dNBR) algorithm, the USGS/EROS Data Center and USDA-FS/ Remote Sensing Applications Center will map burn severity of all fires occurring from 1984 to 2010. Only fires that are greater than 500 ac in the East, and 1,000 ac in the West will be included. We anticipate mapping a total of more than 9,000 historical fires and fires that occur during the course of the study. The MTBS project will generate burn-severity data, maps, and reports, which will be available for use at local, State, and national levels to evaluate trends in burn severity and help develop and assess the effectiveness of land management decisions. Additionally, the information developed will provide a baseline from which to monitor the recovery and health of fire-affected landscapes over time. Spatial and tabular data quantifying burn severity will augment existing information used to estimate risk associated with a range of current and future resource threats. For example, fire severity data along with associated biophysical characteristics provide an analytical basis for assessing risk from invasive species as well as native insects and pathogens. All data and results will be distributed to the public via a Web interface.

General Technical Report↗

USGS2024

Distribution and trends of endemic Hawaiian waterbirds, 1986–2023

This study updates the status assessment of four endemic endangered Hawaiian waterbird species—ae‘o (Hawaiian stilt, Himantopus mexicanus knudseni), ‘alae ke‘oke‘o (Hawaiian coot, Fulica alai), ‘alae ‘ula (Hawaiian gallinule, Gallinula galeata sandvicensis), and koloa maoli (Hawaiian duck, Anas wyvilliana)—from 1986 to 2016 by incorporating new data from 2017–2023. State-space models, which account for biological and sampling variation, were fitted to estimate population sizes and trends from both core and non-core wetland survey sites. Long-term trends (1986–2023) largely show increasing populations for all four species, but recent short-term trajectories (2013–2023) are to a greater degree than previous analyses, predominantly negative, indicating accentuated declines in some island populations. Summer counts have declined relative to winter counts over the 38-year period, indicating potential changes in habitat availability and breeding patterns due to shifting rainfall patterns. Although negative trends were apparent in some non-core wetlands, our study underscores the importance of both core and non-core wetlands for waterbird populations.

Hawaii↗

USGS2025

Inferring Brown-Capped Rosy-Finch demography and breeding distribution trends from long-term wintering data in New Mexico

The three North American Rosy-Finch species (Brown-capped [ Leucosticte australis ], Black [ L. atrata ], and Gray-crowned [ L. tephrocotis ]) are among the most climate-threatened species in the United States. New Mexico is an important location for investigating the effects of climate change because it is the southernmost location in which Brown-capped Rosy-Finches breed and the southernmost location where all three Rosy-Finch species co-occur during winter. In the context of climate change, this range boundary is important to study because it is the first part of the range anticipated to cross a threshold of unsuitability for these species with increasing temperatures. Rosy-Finches are difficult to study during the breeding season due to the high elevation and remoteness of their breeding grounds; therefore, winter studies may lend insight into population trends and provide direction for conservation actions based on knowledge of the breeding origins of wintering birds. The goals of our study were to investigate long-term survival and migration trends from wintering Brown-capped Rosy-Finches in New Mexico and evaluate the efficacy of radio frequency identification (RFID)-equipped artificial feeders to monitor population trends. As of May 2025, we have conducted a robust design survival analysis on 22 years of mark-recapture data from a particular wintering site in New Mexico, assessed patterns in the breeding origins of individuals captured at this site using stable isotope analysis, and examined patterns in data collected via RFID. Our main findings from this study are that annual survival probability of Rosy-Finches wintering in New Mexico is low compared to that of other migratory passerines, that Brown-capped Rosy-Finches wintering in New Mexico likely originate from a variety of locations across their breeding range, and that RFID monitoring is useful in improving survival estimates in Rosy-Finches, particularly in short-term studies.

New Mexico↗

USGS1985

Contaminant trends in lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush) of the upper Great Lakes

Contaminant body burdens in lake trout from the Upper Great Lakes have been monitored since 1970 on Lake Michigan and since 1977 and 1978 on Lakes Superior and Huron by USEPA, Great Lakes National Program Office and USFWS, Great Lakes Fishery Laboratory. Analysis of the Lake Michigan data shows that mean PCB concentrations declined from a maximum of 22.91 mg/kg in 1974 to 5.63 in 1982. Mean total DDT concentrations declined from 19.19 mg/kg in 1970 to 2.74 mg/kg in 1982. The decline in both contaminants closely followed first order loss kinetics. If the current decline continues, PCB concentrations will decline to the USFDA tolerance of 2.0 mg/kg in 1988. Mean total DDT concentrations will fall to the IJC objective of 1.0 mg/kg by 1991. Mean dieldrin concentrations increased significantly from 0.20 mg/kg in 1971 to 0.58 mg/kg in 1979 before declining to 0.21 mg/kg in 1982. The decline from 1979-1982 followed first order loss kinetics. As this decline is not reflected in other species (bloater chubs, smelt) it will require additional years of monitoring to determine if the decline in dieldrin concentrations between 1979 and 1982 truly represents a declining trend. Contaminants in lake trout from Lake Superior and Lake Huron generally declined over the study period. The only statistically significant trend other than in Lake Michigan was for total DDT which declined significantly in Lake Superior lake trout. Large data variance and the short time frame covered (1977-1982) interfered with detection of trends on Lakes Superior and Huron.

Report↗

USGS2015

Changes in erosion and flooding risk due to long-term and cyclic oceanographic trends

We assess temporal variations in waves and sea level, which are driving factors for beach erosion and coastal flooding in the northern Gulf of Mexico. We find that long-term trends in the relevant variables have caused an increase of ~30% in the erosion/flooding risk since the 1980s. Changes in the wave climate—which have often been ignored in earlier assessments—were at least as important as sea level rise (SLR). In the next decades, SLR will likely become the dominating driver and may in combination with ongoing changes in the wave climate (and depending on the emission scenario) escalate the erosion/flooding risk by up to 300% over the next 30 years. We also find significant changes in the seasonal cycles of sea level and significant wave height, which have in combination caused a considerable increase of the erosion/flooding risk in summer and decrease in winter relative to long-term trends.

Alabama↗

USGS2023

Waterfowl show spatiotemporal trends in influenza A H5 and H7 infections but limited taxonomic variation

Influenza A viruses in wild birds pose threats to the poultry industry, wild birds, and human health under certain conditions. Of particular importance are wild waterfowl, which are the primary reservoir of low pathogenicity influenza viruses that ultimately cause high pathogenicity outbreaks in poultry farms. Despite much work on the drivers of influenza A virus prevalence, the underlying viral subtype dynamics are still mostly unexplored. Nevertheless, understanding these dynamics, particularly for the agriculturally significant H5 and H7 subtypes, is important for mitigating the risk of outbreaks in domestic poultry farms. Here, using an expansive surveillance database, we take a large-scale look at the spatial, temporal, and taxonomic drivers in the prevalence of these two subtypes among influenza A positive wild waterfowl. We document spatiotemporal trends that are consistent with past work, particularly an uptick in H5 viruses in late autumn and H7 viruses in spring. Interestingly, despite large species differences in temporal trends in overall influenza A virus prevalence, we document only modest differences in the relative abundance of these two subtypes and little, if any, temporal differences among species. As such, it appears that differences in species' phenology, physiology, and behaviors that influence overall susceptibility to influenza A viruses play a much lesser role in relative susceptibility to different subtypes. Instead, species likely freely pass viruses among each other regardless of subtype. Importantly, despite the similarities among species documented here, individual species still may play important roles in moving viruses across large geographic areas or sustaining local outbreaks through their different migratory behaviors.

Ecological Applications↗

USGS2024

Using mobile acoustic monitoring and false-positive N-mixture models to estimate bat abundance and population trends

Estimating the abundance of unmarked animal populations from acoustic data is challenging due to the inability to identify individuals and the need to adjust for observation biases including detectability (false negatives), species misclassification (false positives), and sampling exposure. Acoustic surveys conducted along mobile transects were designed to avoid counting individuals more than once, where raw counts are commonly treated as an index of abundance. More recently, false-positive abundance models have been developed to estimate abundance while accounting for imperfect detection and misclassification. We adapted these methods to model summertime abundance and trends of three species of bats at multiple spatial scales using acoustic recordings collected along mobile transects by partners of the North American Bat Monitoring Program (NABat) from 2012 to 2020. This multiscale modeling spanned individual transect routes, larger NABat grid cells (10 km × 10 km), and across the entire extent of modeled species ranges. We estimated relationships between species abundances and a suite of abiotic and biotic predictors (landcover types, climatological variables, physiographic diversity, building density, and the impacts of white-nose syndrome [WNS]) and found varying levels of support between species. We present clear evidence of substantial declines in populations of tricolored bats ( Perimyotis subflavus ) and little brown bats ( Myotis lucifugus ), declines that corresponded in space and time with the progression of WNS, a devastating disease of hibernating bats. In contrast, our analysis revealed that similar population-wide declines probably have not occurred in big brown bats ( Eptesicus fuscus ), a species known to be less affected by WNS. This study provides the first abundance-based species distribution predictions and population trends for bats in their summer ranges in North America. These models will probably be applicable to assessing wildlife populations in other monitoring programs where acoustic data are used or where false-negative and false-positive detections are present. Finally, our abundance framework (as a spatial point pattern process) can serve as a foundation from which more sophisticated integrated species distribution models that incorporate additional streams of monitoring data (e.g., stationary acoustics, captures) can be developed for North American bats.

Ecological Monographs↗

USGS2026

American kestrel population trends and vital rates at the continental scale

The American kestrel ( Falco sparverius , hereafter referred to as kestrel) has declined across much of its North American range since at least the mid-1960s. Kestrel population dynamics have been explored through a multitude of local studies and two broad reviews of available data. Across large geographic extents, however, the demographic cause(s) of kestrel population declines remain(s) largely unknown. As part of a collaborative effort to elucidate the drivers of kestrel population declines, we developed a continental-scale integrated population model using band-recovery data, productivity data, and Breeding Bird Survey indices from 1986 to 2019 to estimate indices of annual population sizes, survival, and productivity rates across the continental United States. We detected a decline in population size of ~1%–2% per year. Overall estimates of population growth from 1986 to 2019 suggest a 29% decline in population size (95% CI = −34% to −23%). There was little evidence of a trend in brood size. However, survival of juvenile birds (mean = −0.015, SD = 0.008 and mean = −0.024, SD = 0.010 for females and males, respectively) and adult males (mean = −0.016, SD = 0.010) in the summer declined, suggesting that these vital rates could be contributing to declines in populations over time. Winter adult survival rates (mean = −0.004, SD = 0.009 and mean = −0.009, SD = 0.010 for females and males, respectively) also declined but to a lesser extent than summer survival. For juvenile birds, winter survival increased (mean = 0.006, SD = 0.008 and mean = 0.002, SD = 0.009 for females and males, respectively); however, this was not enough to offset declines in summer survival and annual survival rates declined over the time series. Annual adult survival was also low relative to previous research on kestrel survival rates. Given the importance of survival to population trends, our findings provide support for several previously proposed broad classes of factors potentially contributing to observed population declines: declines in arthropod prey, second-generation rodenticides, neonicotinoid insecticides, and predation.

Ecosphere↗

USGS2012

Spring onset variations and trends in the continental United States: past and regional assessment using temperature-based indices

Phenological data are simple yet sensitive indicators of climate change impacts on ecosystems, but observations have not been made routinely or extensively enough to evaluate spatial and temporal patterns across most continents, including North America. As an alternative, many studies use weather-based algorithms to simulate speciﬁc phenological responses. Spring Indices (SI) are a set of complex phenological models that have been successfully applied to evaluate variations and trends in the onset of spring across the Northern Hemisphere’s temperate regions. To date, SI models have been limited by only producing output in locations where both the plants’ chilling and warmth requirements are met. Here, we develop an extended form of the SI (abbreviated SI-x) that expands their application into the subtropics by ignoring chilling requirements while still retaining the utility and accuracy of the original SI (now abbreviated SI-o). The validity of the new indices is tested, and regional SI anomalies are explored across the data-rich continental United States. SI-x variations from 1900 to 2010 show an abrupt and sustained delay in spring onset of about 4–8 d (around 1958) in parts of the Southeast and southern Great Plains, and a comparable advance of 4–8 d (around 1984) in parts of the northern Great Plains and the West. Atmospheric circulation anomalies, linked to large-scale modes of variability, exert modest but signiﬁcant roles in the timing of spring onset across the United States on interannual and longer timescales. The SI-x are promising metrics for tracking spring onset variations and trends in mid-latitudes, relating them to relevant ecological, hydrological, and socioeconomic phenomena, and exploring connections between atmospheric drivers and seasonal timing.

International Journal of Climatology↗

USGS2019

Trends and carrying capacity of sea otters in Southeast Alaska

Sea otter populations in Southeast Alaska (SEAK) have increased dramatically from fewer than 500 translocated animals in the late 1960s. The recovery of sea otters to ecosystems from which they had been absent has affected coastal food webs, including commercially important fisheries, and thus information on expected growth and equilibrium abundances can help inform resource management. We compile available survey data for SEAK and fit a Bayesian state-space model to estimate past trends and current abundance. Our model improves upon previous analyses by partitioning and quantifying sources of estimation error, accounting for over-dispersion of aerial count data, and providing realistic measurements of uncertainty around point estimates of abundance at multiple spatial scales. We also provide the first estimates of carrying capacity (K) for SEAK, at both regional and sub-regional scales, and analyze growth rates, current population status and expected future trends. At the regional scale, the population increased from 13,221 otters in 2003 (95% credible interval 9,990 – 16,828) to 25,584 otters in 2011 (CI95 18,739 – 33,163). The average annual growth rate in southern SEAK (7.8%) was higher than northern SEAK (2.7%); however, growth varied at the sub-regional scale and there was a negative relationship between growth rates and the number of years sea otters were present in an area. Local populations vary in terms of current densities and expected future growth: the mean estimated density at K was 4.2 (1.58) sea otters per km2 of habitat (defined as the sub-tidal benthos between 0-40m depth) and current densities correspond on average to 50% of projected equilibrium values (range = 1% to 97%) with the earliest-colonized sub-regions tending to be closer to K. Assuming a similar range of equilibrium densities for currently un-occupied habitats in SEAK, the projected value of K for all of SEAK is 74,650 sea otters (CI95 =36,778–136,506). Future analyses can improve upon the precision of K estimates by employing more frequent surveys at index sites and incorporating environmental covariates into the process model to generate habitat-specific estimates of equilibrium density.

Alaska↗

USGS2023

Lake sturgeon population trends in the St. Clair–Detroit River System, 2001–2019

Lake Sturgeon Acipenser fulvescens are listed as threatened or endangered in 15 states or provinces within their native range. Accordingly, investments in habitat and population restoration for this species have increased throughout the Great Lakes. To aide evaluation of restoration efficacy, robust population parameters are needed to inform management decisions. The St. Clair – Detroit River System (SCDRS) contains one of the largest self-sustaining Lake Sturgeon populations in the Great Lakes; however recent estimates of population abundance and growth parameters have not been assessed. Our study used baited setline and mark-recapture data collected between 2001 – 2019 to estimate whether the number of Lake Sturgeon captured varied annually and/or with water temperature and whether population abundance and population growth rate varied among three sub-populations located in the SCDRS. Trends in the number of Lake Sturgeon captured on setlines varied among sub-populations and by life stage. Annual trends in the number of Lake Sturgeon captured remained consistent over time in the upper St. Clair River, decreased for adults and increased for subadults in the lower St. Clair River, and increased in the Detroit River. With sub-population abundance of 20,184 (95% CI = 12,533 – 27,816) in the upper St. Clair River/southern Lake Huron, 6,523 (95% CI = 5,720 – 7,327) in the lower St. Clair River, and 6,416 (95% CI = 4,065 – 8,767) in the Detroit River, our study confirms that the SCDRS contains the largest Lake Sturgeon population with unimpeded access to the Great Lakes. The geometric mean population growth rate ( λ ) for all sub-populations indicated stable populations and ranged from 1.00 – 1.16. Our study provides an updated assessment of Lake Sturgeon population parameters that serve as a baseline to evaluate habitat restoration efforts and inform management of the SCDRS recreational Lake Sturgeon fishery.

Michigan, Ontario↗

USGS2014

Population trends, bend use relative to available habitat and within-river-bend habitat use of eight indicator species of Missouri and Lower Kansas River benthic fishes: 15 years after baseline assessment

A baseline assessment of the Missouri River fish community and species-specific habitat use patterns conducted from 1996 to 1998 provided the first comprehensive analysis of Missouri River benthic fish population trends and habitat use in the Missouri and Lower Yellowstone rivers, exclusive of reservoirs, and provided the foundation for the present Pallid Sturgeon Population Assessment Program (PSPAP). Data used in such studies are frequently zero inflated. To address this issue, the zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) model was applied. This follow-up study is based on PSPAP data collected up to 15 years later along with new understanding of how habitat characteristics among and within bends affect habitat use of fish species targeted by PSPAP, including pallid sturgeon. This work demonstrated that a large-scale, large-river, PSPAP-type monitoring program can be an effective tool for assessing population trends and habitat usage of large-river fish species. Using multiple gears, PSPAP was effective in monitoring shovelnose and pallid sturgeons, sicklefin, shoal and sturgeon chubs, sand shiner, blue sucker and sauger. For all species, the relationship between environmental variables and relative abundance differed, somewhat, among river segments suggesting the importance of the overall conditions of Upper and Middle Missouri River and Lower Missouri and Kansas rivers on the habitat usage patterns exhibited. Shoal and sicklefin chubs exhibited many similar habitat usage patterns; blue sucker and shovelnose sturgeon also shared similar responses. For pallid sturgeon, the primary focus of PSPAP, relative abundance tended to increase in Upper and Middle Missouri River paralleling stocking efforts, whereas no evidence of an increasing relative abundance was found in the Lower Missouri River despite stocking.

Kansas River, Missouri River↗

USGS2020

Estimating inundation of small waterbodies with sub-pixel analysis of Landsat imagery: Long-term trends in surface water area and evaluation of common drought indices

Small waterbodies are numerically dominant in many landscapes and provide several important ecosystem services, but automated measurement of waterbodies smaller than a standard Landsat pixel (0.09 ha) remains challenging. To further evaluate sub‐Landsat pixel techniques for estimating inundation extent of small waterbodies (basin area: 0.06–1.79 ha), we used a partial spectral unmixing method with matched filtering applied to September 1985–2018 Landsat 5 and eight imagery from southern Arizona, USA. We estimated trends in modeled surface water area each September and evaluated the ability of several common drought indices to explain variation in mean water area. Our methods accurately classified waterbodies as dry or inundated (Landsat 5: 91.3%; Landsat 8: 98.9%) and modeled and digitized surface water areas were strongly correlated ( R 2 = 0.70–0.92; bias = −0.024 to −0.015 ha). Estimated surface water area was best explained by the 3‐month seasonal standardized precipitation index (SPI03; July‒September). We found a wide range of estimated relationships between drought indices (e.g. SPI vs. Palmer Drought Severity Index) and estimated water area, even for different durations of the same drought index (e.g. SPI01 vs. SPI12). Mean waterbody surface area decreased by ~14% from September 1985 to September 2018, which matches declines in local annual precipitation and regional trends of reduced inundation extent of larger waterbodies. These results emphasize the importance of understanding local systems when relying on drought indices to infer variation in past or future surface water dynamics. Several challenges remain before widespread application of sub‐pixel methods is feasible, but our results provide further evidence that partial spectral unmixing with matched filtering provides reliable measures of inundation extent of small waterbodies.

Arizona↗

USGS2012

Changes in size and trends of North American sea duck populations associated with North Pacific oceanic regime shifts

Broad-scale multi-species declines in populations of North American sea ducks for unknown reasons is cause for management concern. Oceanic regime shifts have been associated with rapid changes in ecosystem structure of the North Pacific and Bering Sea. However, relatively little is known about potential effects of these changes in oceanic conditions on marine bird populations at broad scales. I examined changes in North American breeding populations of sea ducks from 1957 to 2011 in relation to potential oceanic regime shifts in the North Pacific in 1977, 1989, and 1998. There was strong support for population-level effects of regime shifts in 1977 and 1989, but little support for an effect of the 1998 shift. The continental-level effects of these regime shifts differed across species groups and time. Based on patterns of sea duck population dynamics associated with regime shifts, it is unclear if the mechanism of change relates to survival or reproduction. Results of this analysis support the hypothesis that population size and trends of North American sea ducks are strongly influenced by oceanic conditions. The perceived population declines appear to have halted >20 years ago, and populations have been relatively stable or increasing since that time. Given these results, we should reasonably expect dramatic changes in sea duck population status and trends with future oceanic regime shifts.

Marine Biology↗

USGS2011

Recent summer precipitation trends in the Greater Horn of Africa and the emerging role of Indian Ocean sea surface temperature

We utilize a variety of climate datasets to examine impacts of two mechanisms on precipitation in the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) during northern-hemisphere summer. First, surface-pressure gradients draw moist air toward the GHA from the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Congo Basin. Variability of the strength of these gradients strongly influences GHA precipitation totals and accounts for important phenomena such as the 1960s–1980s rainfall decline and devastating 1984 drought. Following the 1980s, precipitation variability became increasingly influenced by the southern tropical Indian Ocean (STIO) region. Within this region, increases in sea-surface temperature, evaporation, and precipitation are linked with increased exports of dry mid-tropospheric air from the STIO region toward the GHA. Convergence of dry air above the GHA reduces local convection and precipitation. It also produces a clockwise circulation response near the ground that reduces moisture transports from the Congo Basin. Because precipitation originating in the Congo Basin has a unique isotopic signature, records of moisture transports from the Congo Basin may be preserved in the isotopic composition of annual tree rings in the Ethiopian Highlands. A negative trend in tree-ring oxygen-18 during the past half century suggests a decline in the proportion of precipitation originating from the Congo Basin. This trend may not be part of a natural cycle that will soon rebound because climate models characterize Indian Ocean warming as a principal signature of greenhouse-gas induced climate change. We therefore expect surface warming in the STIO region to continue to negatively impact GHA precipitation during northern-hemisphere summer.

Greater Horn of Africa↗