Trends and carrying capacity of sea otters in Southeast Alaska

M. Tim Tinker; Verena A. Gill; George G. Esslinger; James L. Bodkin; Melissa Monk; Marc Mangel; Daniel Monson; Wendel W. Raymond; Michelle Kissling

doi:10.1002/jwmg.21685

USGS · 70208325

Trends and carrying capacity of sea otters in Southeast Alaska

M. Tim Tinker·Verena A. Gill·George G. Esslinger·James L. Bodkin·Melissa Monk·Marc Mangel·Daniel Monson·Wendel W. Raymond·Michelle Kissling

View original source ↗Export metadata ↓

Abstract

Sea otter populations in Southeast Alaska (SEAK) have increased dramatically from fewer than 500 translocated animals in the late 1960s. The recovery of sea otters to ecosystems from which they had been absent has affected coastal food webs, including commercially important fisheries, and thus information on expected growth and equilibrium abundances can help inform resource management. We compile available survey data for SEAK and fit a Bayesian state-space model to estimate past trends and current abundance. Our model improves upon previous analyses by partitioning and quantifying sources of estimation error, accounting for over-dispersion of aerial count data, and providing realistic measurements of uncertainty around point estimates of abundance at multiple spatial scales. We also provide the first estimates of carrying capacity (K) for SEAK, at both regional and sub-regional scales, and analyze growth rates, current population status and expected future trends. At the regional scale, the population increased from 13,221 otters in 2003 (95% credible interval 9,990 – 16,828) to 25,584 otters in 2011 (CI95 18,739 – 33,163). The average annual growth rate in southern SEAK (7.8%) was higher than northern SEAK (2.7%); however, growth varied at the sub-regional scale and there was a negative relationship between growth rates and the number of years sea otters were present in an area. Local populations vary in terms of current densities and expected future growth: the mean estimated density at K was 4.2 (1.58) sea otters per km2 of habitat (defined as the sub-tidal benthos between 0-40m depth) and current densities correspond on average to 50% of projected equilibrium values (range = 1% to 97%) with the earliest-colonized sub-regions tending to be closer to K. Assuming a similar range of equilibrium densities for currently un-occupied habitats in SEAK, the projected value of K for all of SEAK is 74,650 sea otters (CI95 =36,778–136,506). Future analyses can improve upon the precision of K estimates by employing more frequent surveys at index sites and incorporating environmental covariates into the process model to generate habitat-specific estimates of equilibrium density.

Explore related subjects

Journal of Wildlife Management Article

Source-reported bounding extent: 51.72702815704774° to 60.457217797743944° latitude; -141.064453125° to -129.638671875° longitude. This indicates report coverage, not an exact sampling location. View area on OpenStreetMap.

Keep this discovery

Explore connections, maps & timelines

BibTeX RIS

M. Tim Tinker, Verena A. Gill, George G. Esslinger, James L. Bodkin, Melissa Monk, Marc Mangel, Daniel Monson, Wendel W. Raymond, Michelle Kissling. 2019-06-26. Trends and carrying capacity of sea otters in Southeast Alaska. https://doi.org/10.1002/jwmg.21685

Cite the original work for its findings. Save a collection to share your selection of sources.

KEEP EXPLORING

Related USGS reports

USGS2026

Duck nesting response to experimental management of upland habitats in California

Habitat loss and limited upland nesting cover likely constrain waterfowl productivity in intensively managed wetland landscapes in California, USA. We evaluated whether experimental manipulations of upland habitats, including the seeding of native plants, dense nesting cover, or cereal grains, could enhance nesting vegetation and improve duck nest density and nest survival in a Mediterranean climate. During 2008 to 2013, we used a before-after-control-impact (BACI) experimental design within 15 upland grassland fields (each 12–28 ha in size) at a state wildlife area to evaluate habitat management treatment effects on nest site vegetation, vegetation structure, and reproductive performance of mallard ( Anas platyrhynchos ) and gadwall ( Mareca strepera ). The BACI design allowed vegetation and duck nesting responses in treated fields to be compared to untreated control fields both before and after treatment implementation. Prior to treatment implementation, all study fields consisted of upland grasslands dominated primarily by non-native annual grasses typical of Mediterranean-climate ecosystems in California. Relative to control fields, we observed only limited improvement to duck nest success in fields seeded with cereal grains and dense nesting cover, whereas fields seeded with native plants showed persistently lower duck nest survival. Vegetation composition after treatment application shifted rapidly from plants that were purposefully seeded to non-native grasses (e.g., Italian ryegrass [ Lolium multiflorum ]) by the second and third years after treatment. Vegetation structural metrics (i.e., visual obstruction height, lateral density, and canopy density) also showed limited or no improvement attributable to the experimental treatments. Across nearly all treatment and control fields, duck nest densities increased during the first several years following treatment implementation but later declined towards pre-treatment levels by the fourth year after treatment. However, mallard nest densities increased much more markedly in native fields than in control fields in the early post-treatment years but declined again in later post-treatment years, suggesting limited long-term benefit. Clutch size, nest initiation date, and egg hatching success were not affected by treatments. Our results indicate that vegetation management and direct seeding had limited short-term and no measurable long-term benefits to the vegetation's structure, duck nesting densities, or duck nest survival, and upland habitat conditions showed little sustained improvement during later breeding seasons (years 2–4 post-treatment). Upland restoration efforts in agricultural landscapes may need more continued, multi-year habitat management to improve nesting conditions for waterfowl over the long-term.

California↗

USGS2026

Beginning with a single step: A social theory of change for managing chronic wasting disease

Emerging wildlife diseases, like chronic wasting disease (CWD), not only lead to changing dynamics within the ecology of the susceptible species but also to changes within interrelated social and management systems. Chronic wasting disease has proven challenging to manage partially because the best management practices (BMP) available have conflicted with historical cervid management paradigms. In support of CWD management decisions, we conducted an expert elicitation investigation of potential intervention strategies that experts believed would positively affect CWD management. The most prioritized intervention was “understanding audiences, outreach, and engagement with public.” Using the most prioritized intervention theme, we continued the expert elicitation process to develop a social theory of change that describes the expected results of implementing the intervention theme. The results chain describes a process of conducting social science investigation to gather evidence and understand the situation and use the gathered evidence to support the selection of appropriate behavior change strategies and pathways prior to implementing a desired CWD management action. The produced social theory of change provides CWD managing organizations with a framework for evaluating efforts to engage with the public about the actions they are taking and working to increase support or participation.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

USGS2026

White light reduces flight height of birds in low-density migration corridor

Artificial light at night (ALAN) has been shown to influence the behavior of migratory birds, yet how different light spectra modulate these effects remains unclear. We conducted a field experiment for 31 nights at a remote site in northern Colorado, USA, using 2 800-W light-emitting diode (LED) floodlights with white, red, amber, and blue lighting treatments during fall migration in 2023 and 2024. Using a vertical-looking radar system, we quantified avian in-flight responses in migration traffic rate, flight height, and flight direction between paired control periods with no light and periods with lighting treatments. Although we found no effects of our treatments on migration traffic rate and weak effects on flight direction, we found that broad-spectrum white light with emissions across a 400–600 nm spectrum reduced mean avian flight height by an estimated 22.57 m (±10.53 SE) compared to dark periods, and this response was stronger than red and blue lighting treatments. Our ability to detect behavior changes from a point source in a rural, low-density migration system supports the notion that the effects of artificial light at night on bird behavior may be more pervasive than is often recognized, and that this varies by ALAN spectra. Beyond providing insight into avian orientation and in-flight behavior, our results have implications for future research, the conservation management of artificial light at night, and lighting designs that minimize effects on migratory birds.

Colorado↗