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USGS2017

Five-year external reviews of the eight Department of Interior Climate Science Centers: Southeast Climate Science Center

In 2008, the U.S. Congress authorized the establishment of the National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center (NCCWSC) within the U.S. Department of Interior (DOI). Housed administratively within the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), NCCWSC is part of the DOI’s ongoing mission to meet the challenges of climate change and its effects on wildlife and aquatic resources. From 2010 through 2012, NCCWSC established eight regional DOI Climate Science Centers (CSCs). Each of these regional CSCs operated with the mission to “synthesize and integrate climate change impact data and develop tools that the Department’s managers and partners can use when managing the Department’s land, water, fish and wildlife, and cultural heritage resources” (Salazar 2009). The model developed by NCCWSC for the regional CSCs employed a dual approach of a federal USGS-staffed component and a parallel host-university component established competitively through a 5-year cooperative agreement with NCCWSC. At the conclusion of this 5-year agreement, a review of each CSC was undertaken, with the Southeast Climate Science Center (SE CSC) review in February 2016. The SE CSC is hosted by North Carolina State University (NCSU) in Raleigh, North Carolina, and is physically housed within the NCSU Department of Applied Ecology along with the Center for Applied Aquatic Ecology, the North Carolina Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit (CFWRU), and the North Carolina Agromedicine Institute. The U.S. Department of Agriculture Southeast Regional Climate Hub is based at NCSU as is the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Southeast Regional Climate Center, the North Carolina Institute for Climate Studies, the North Carolina Wildlife Resources Commission, the NOAA National Weather Service, the State Climate Office of North Carolina, and the U.S. Forest Service Eastern Forest Environmental Threat Assessment Center. This creates a strong core of organizations operating in close proximity focused on climate issues. The geographic area covered by the SE CSC represents all or part of 16 states and the Caribbean Islands and has overlapping boundaries with seven Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCCs): Appalachian LCC, Eastern Tallgrass Prairie and Big Rivers LCC, Gulf Coast Prairie LCC, Gulf Coastal Plains and Ozarks LCC, Peninsular Florida LCC, South Atlantic LCC, and Caribbean LCC. The SE CSC region also encompasses 134 U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service refuges and 89 National Park Service (NPS) units and is home to 11 federally recognized and 54 state recognized tribes.

Report↗

USGS2010

The PRISM3D paleoenvironmental reconstruction

The Pliocene Research, Interpretation and Synoptic Mapping (PRISM) paleoenvironmental reconstruction is an internally consistent and comprehensive global synthesis of a past interval of relatively warm and stable climate. It is regularly used in model studies that aim to better understand Pliocene climate, to improve model performance in future climate scenarios, and to distinguish model-dependent climate effects. The PRISM reconstruction is constantly evolving in order to incorporate additional geographic sites and environmental parameters, and is continuously refined by independent research findings. The new PRISM three dimensional (3D) reconstruction differs from previous PRISM reconstructions in that it includes a subsurface ocean temperature reconstruction, integrates geochemical sea surface temperature proxies to supplement the faunal-based temperature estimates, and uses numerical models for the first time to augment fossil data. Here we describe the components of PRISM3D and describe new findings specific to the new reconstruction. Highlights of the new PRISM3D reconstruction include removal of Hudson Bay and the Great Lakes and creation of open waterways in locations where the current bedrock elevation is less than 25m above modern sea level, due to the removal of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet and the reduction of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet. The mid-Piacenzian oceans were characterized by a reduced east-west temperature gradient in the equatorial Pacific, but PRISM3D data do not imply permanent El Niño conditions. The reduced equator-to-pole temperature gradient that characterized previous PRISM reconstructions is supported by significant displacement of vegetation belts toward the poles, is extended into the Arctic Ocean, and is confirmed by multiple proxies in PRISM3D. Arctic warmth coupled with increased dryness suggests the formation of warm and salty paleo North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) and a more vigorous thermohaline circulation system that may have provided the enhanced ocean heat transport necessary to move warm surface water to the Arctic. New deep ocean temperature data also suggests greater warmth and further southward penetration of paleo NADW.

Stratigraphy↗

USGS2018

Prospects for reconstructing paleoenvironmental conditions from organic compounds in polar snow and ice

Polar ice cores provide information about past climate and environmental changes over periods ranging from a few years up to 800,000 years. The majority of chemical studies have focused on determining inorganic components, such as major ions and trace elements as well as on their isotopic fingerprint. In this paper, we review the different classes of organic compounds that might yield environmental information, discussing existing research and what is needed to improve knowledge. We also discuss the problems of sampling, analysis and interpretation of organic molecules in ice. This review highlights the great potential for organic compounds to be used as proxies for anthropogenic activities, past fire events from different types of biomass, terrestrial biogenic emissions and marine biological activity, along with the possibility of inferring past temperature fluctuations and even large-scale climate variability. In parallel, comprehensive research needs to be done to assess the atmospheric stability of these compounds, their ability to be transported long distances in the atmosphere, and their stability in the archive in order to better interpret their fluxes in ice cores. In addition, specific decontamination procedures, analytical methods with low detection limits (ng/L or lower), fast analysis time and low sample requests need to be developed in order to ensure a good time resolution in the archive.

Quaternary Science Reviews↗

USGS2024

Multi-criteria decision approach for climate adaptation of cultural resources along the Atlantic coast of the southeastern United States: Application of AHP method

Prioritizing climate adaptation actions is often made difficult by stakeholders and decision-makers having multiple objectives, some of which may be competing. Transparent, transferable, and objective methods are needed to assess and weight different objectives for complex decisions with multiple interests. In this study, the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) was used to examine priorities in managing cultural resources in the face of climate change at Cape Lookout National Seashore on the Atlantic coast of the southeastern United States. In this process, we conducted facilitated discussion sessions with the selected stakeholder representatives to elicit a comprehensive list of management objectives. Objectives were then merged into three categories: 1) Maximize retention of historic character and condition (HCC); 2) Foster heritage awareness (HA); and 3) Maximize financial benefits (FB). We facilitated two AHP exercise sessions, both individually and in groups, to seek consensus on the relative importance of the objectives. The AHP process created a space for stakeholders (government agencies and local citizens) to consider and present arguments that we used to contextualize their trade-offs between the objectives. The stakeholders' top priority was to maximize the HCC. This objective was prioritized more than HA and FB in the individual trade-off choices, while HA was given nearly equal priority to FB. The consensus priority vectors of two management objectives (HCC and HA) differ significantly from FB, but the difference between HCC and HA is slight and not statistically different. FB and HA had larger changes in consensus priority vectors among the three objectives relative to individual priority vectors. For HCC, the difference between individual and consensus priority vectors was the smallest and nearly equal. Moreover, very high levels of consistency were found in consensus priority trade-off discussions and AHP application. Our research highlights the advantage of using a two-step AHP process in climate adaptation planning of vulnerable resources to enhance robustness in decision making. Coupling this approach with future efforts to develop management priorities would help estimate indices to determine the order in which adaptation treatments are applied to vulnerable cultural resources.

Climate Risk Management↗

USGS2026

Functional traits can explain coordinated seedling responses to drought and freezing stress

Limited plant establishment creates demographic bottlenecks that can alter vegetation trajectories in changing environments, yet it is unclear how common eco-evolutionary indicators of plant strategy shape early response to key stressors. We evaluated how early functional traits, phylogeny, and adult climate niche jointly explain seedling drought and freezing tolerance across 49 semi-arid rangeland species. The best models explained 36% of variation in freezing tolerance (traits only) and 45% of variation in drought tolerance (traits, phylogeny, and climate), identifying both shared and unique indicators of different stress responses. Drought tolerance was explained by rapid root elongation and large seed size, while phylogeny captured additional tolerance within the grass family. Seedling freezing tolerance was linked to rapid root elongation and colder thresholds for root growth, though traits shared some explanatory power with adult climate niche (cold temperature distribution). While stress resistance can be shaped by phylogeny and adaptations to long-term climate regimes, our results elucidate early traits with clearer direct links to establishment capacity under drought and freezing stress, across species. Additional research is needed to understand how variation in stress response strategies across multiple demographic stages (e.g., seeds, seedlings, mature plant) and ecological scales (e.g., within and across species' climate distributions) could affect vegetation distributions and trajectories in changing environments.

Colorado Plateau, Great Basin, western United Stat↗

USGS2008

Research needs for finely resolved fossil carbon emissions

Scientific research on the global carbon cycle has emerged as a high priority in biogeochemistry, climate studies, and global change policy. The emission of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) from fossil fuel combustion is a dominant driver of the current net carbon fluxes between the land, the oceans, and the atmosphere, and it is a key contributor to the rise in modern radiative forcing. Contrary to a commonly held perception, our quantitative knowledge about these emissions is insufficient to satisfy current scientific and policy needs. A more highly spatially and temporally resolved quantification of the social and economic drivers of fossil fuel combustion, and the resulting CO 2 emissions, is essential to supporting scientific and policy progress. In this article, a new community of emissions researchers called the CO 2 Fossil Fuel Emission Effort (CO 2 FFEE) outlines a research agenda to meet the need for improved fossil fuel CO 2 emissions information and solicits comment from the scientific community and research agencies.

Eos, Transactions, American Geophysical Union↗

USGS2023

Critical stakeholder engagement: The road to actionable science Is paved with scientists’ good intentions

To help stakeholders such as planners, resource managers, policymakers, and decision makers address environmental challenges in the Anthropocene, scientists are increasingly creating actionable science—science that is useful, usable, and used. Critical physical geography encourages the engagement of stakeholders in the creation of scientific knowledge to conduct actionable science and produce outputs that are directly relevant to stakeholder plans, decisions, or actions. Many scientists, however, lack formal training in how to partner with stakeholders using effective and ethical practices. In this article, we use the core principles for ethical research of respect for persons, beneficence, and justice from the Belmont Report (1979) as a suggested framework to examine the perspectives of stakeholders engaged in climate adaptation science projects. We argue that this framework aligns with the principles of critical physical geography and provides guidance for scientists to make their research more actionable while placing necessary emphasis on ethical considerations. We also challenge scientists to consider the broader ethical implications of engaging with these partners.

Annals of the American Association of Geographers↗

USGS2007

Airborne geophysics as a tool for geoscientific research in Antarctica: some recent examples

The polar regions play an important role in Earth's geodynamic and climatic systems. Modern airborne geophysical surveys combine radio-echo sounding, aeromagnetic and aerogravity methods to explore the geology of these regions. This paper reviews some recent aerogeophysical investigations undertaken by the British Antarctic Survey to: 1) Image subglacial rifts of Jurassic age in western Dronning Maud Land, which were associated with early Gondwana break-up; 2) Investigate crustal growth over the Antarctic Peninsula by Cretaceous arc magmatism and terrane accretion along the paleo-Pacific margin of Gondwana; 3) Analyse geological boundary conditions for presentday ice dynamics over Coats Land.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2015

Sixth International Limnogeology Congress: abstract volume, Reno, Nevada, June 15-19, 2015

Limnogeology is the study of modern lakes and lake deposits in the geologic record. Limnogeologists have been active since the 1800s, but interest in limnogeology became prevalent in the early 1990s when it became clear that lake deposits contain continental environmental and climate records. A society that is focused on limnogeology would allow greater communication and access to research on these important subjects and contribute to providing sound science used to understand rapid global changes in our modern world; thus, the International Association of Limnogeology was founded in 1995 at the first International Limnogeology Congress (ILIC) held in Copenhagen, Denmark. The Sixth International Limnogeology Congress (ILIC6) was held in Reno, Nevada, from June 15–19, 2015. The ILIC meetings have been held every 4 years since the first meeting in1995 and were subsequently convened in Brest, France (1999), Tucson, Arizona, USA (2003), Barcelona, Spain (2007), and Konstanz, Germany (2011). The Congress in Reno, USA marks the second time the Congress has been held in the United States and more than 150 scientists from every part of the world participated. About one-half of the participants were from North America, together with scientists from Europe, South America, Asia, Africa, Australia, and New Zealand. The format of the Reno Congress followed the format originated at the Tucson Congress (ILIC3), which is unusual for scientific meetings. Nine keynote speakers spread throughout the Congress gave 1-hour talks, with the rest of the time available for viewing posters that were presented by the bulk of the participants. Keynote presentations were diverse and showed the breadth of research that is being done in lake systems worldwide. The abstracts of the keynote speakers and about 140 poster presentations are included in this volume. These posters cover a variety of limnologic, paleolimnologic, and limnogeologic topics including contaminant histories of lakes, the role of groundwater in lake processes, the formation of minerals in lake sediments, terminal lakes, how lakes reveal climate changes and paleohydrologic processes, the impact of volcanic emissions on lakes, as well as the biologic and chemical evolution of lake systems. The U.S. Geological Survey has sponsored each ILIC that has been held in the United States because of the importance of understanding paleoclimate and contaminant histories of lakes, two main themes of the Congress. This volume provides a permanent record of the wide variety of studies that are being conducted in modern lakes and ancient lake deposits worldwide, and it provides a stepping stone for any one desiring further discussion of the work that was presented at ILIC6.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2011

USGS global change science strategy: A framework for understanding and responding to climate and land-use change

This U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Global Change Science Strategy expands on the Climate Variability and Change science component of the USGS 2007 Science Strategy, “Facing Tomorrow’s Challenges: USGS Science in the Coming Decade” (U.S. Geological Survey, 2007). Here we embrace the broad definition of global change provided in the U.S. Global Change Research Act of 1990 (Public Law 101–606,104 Stat. 3096–3104)—“Changes in the global environment (including alterations in climate, land productivity, oceans or other water resources, atmospheric chemistry, and ecological systems) that may alter the capacity of the Earth to sustain life”—with a focus on climate and land-use change. There are three major characteristics of this science strategy. First, it addresses the science required to broadly inform global change policy, while emphasizing the needs of natural-resource managers and reflecting the role of the USGS as the science provider for the Department of the Interior and other resource-management agencies. Second, the strategy identifies core competencies, noting 10 critical capabilities and strengths the USGS uses to overcome key problem areas. We highlight those areas in which the USGS is a science leader, recognizing the strong partnerships and effective collaboration that are essential to address complex global environmental challenges. Third, it uses a query-based approach listing key research questions that need to be addressed to create an agenda for hypothesis-driven global change science organized under six strategic goals. Overall, the strategy starts from where we are, provides a vision for where we want to go, and then describes high-priority strategic actions, including outcomes, products, and partnerships that can get us there. Global change science is a well-defined research field with strong linkages to the ecosystems, water, energy and minerals, natural hazards, and environmental health components of the USGS Science Strategy (2007). When science strategies that cover these other components are developed, coordinated implementation will be necessary to achieve Bureau-level synergies and optimize capabilities and expertise. In October 2010, USGS realigned its management and budget structure to implement its 2007 Science Strategy. The new organizational structure, in which “Global Change” is one of seven key mission areas, lends itself to the advancement of the established six strategic goals. USGS global change science is formally represented by the “Climate and Land-Use Change” Mission Area in the FY 2012 budget (USGS, 2011). This plan was developed by the USGS Global Change Science Strategy Planning Team (SSPT) appointed by the USGS Director on March 4, 2010 and charged with developing a Global Change Science Strategy for the coming decade (McNutt, 2010). USGS managers and science staff are the main audience for this science strategy. This document is also intended to serve as the foundation for consistent USGS collaboration and communication with partners and stakeholders.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2016

Predictors of current and longer-term patterns of abundance of American pikas ( Ochotona princeps ) across a leading-edge protected area

American pikas ( Ochotona princeps ) have been heralded as indicators of montane-mammal response to contemporary climate change. Pikas no longer occupy the driest and lowest-elevation sites in numerous parts of their geographic range. Conversely, pikas have exhibited higher rates of occupancy and persistence in Rocky Mountain and Sierra Nevada montane ‘mainlands’. Research and monitoring efforts on pikas across the western USA have collectively shown the nuance and complexity with which climate will often act on species in diverse topographic and climatic contexts. However, to date no studies have investigated habitat, distribution, and abundance of pikas across hundreds of sites within a remote wilderness area. Additionally, relatively little is known about whether climate acts most strongly on pikas through direct or indirect (e.g., vegetation-mediated) mechanisms. During 2007–2009, we collectively hiked >16,000 km throughout the 410,077-ha Glacier National Park, Montana, USA, in an effort to identify topographic, microrefugial, and vegetative characteristics predictive of pika abundance. We identified 411 apparently pika-suitable habitat patches with binoculars ( in situ ), and surveyed 314 of them for pika signs. Ranking of alternative logistic-regression models based on AIC c scores revealed that short-term pika abundances were positively associated with intermediate elevations, greater cover of mosses, and taller forbs, and decreased each year, for a total decline of 68% during the three-year study; whereas longer-term abundances were associated only with static variables (longitude, elevation, gradient) and were lower on north-facing slopes. Earlier Julian date and time of day of the survey (i.e., midday vs. not) were associated with lower observed pika abundance. We recommend that wildlife monitoring account for this seasonal and diel variation when surveying pikas. Broad-scale information on status and abundance determinants of montane mammals, especially for remote protected areas, is crucial for land and wildlife-resource managers trying to anticipate mammalian responses to climate change.

Montana↗

USGS2023

User engagement testing with a pilot decision support tool aimed to support species managers

Species status assessments (SSAs) are required for endangered species by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and focus on the resiliency, redundancy, and representation of endangered species. SSAs must include climate information, because climate is a factor that will impact species in the future. To aid in the inclusion of climate information, a decision support system (DSS) entitled Climate Analysis and Visualization for the Assessment of Species Status (CAnVAS) was developed by the State Climate Office of North Carolina using a coproduction approach. In this study, users viewed a mock-up version of the CAnVAS interface displaying a sample layout of future projections for three key climate variables (average precipitation, average maximum temperature, and occurrence of maximum temperature) at a location of interest. This assessment of the pilot version of the CAnVAS DSS was the first step in refining CAnVAS for species-manager use. This research analyzed the differences in usability between two pilot versions of the CAnVAS DSS through eye tracking and subsequent interviews with novice users. The two pilot versions of CAnVAS differed in the way data were displayed on graphs and the color ramps used on regional maps. We found that graphically displaying temporal climate information through box-and-whisker plots and spatially through a sequential color ramp from white to purple were more effective than alternative displays at communicating climate information on endangered species. The results of this research will be used to further develop the CAnVAS DSS tool for future implementation.

Weather, Climate, and Society↗

USGS2010

Do three massive coral species from the same reef record the same SST signal? A test from the Dry Tortugas, Florida Keys

Paleoclimatologists have reconstructed century-long records of sea surface temperature (SST) in the Pacific using the Sr/Ca of massive corals, whereas similar reconstructions in the Atlantic have not proceeded at the same pace. Past research in the Florida Keys has focused on Montastrea spp. , an abundant and fast-growing massive coral, thus a good candidate for climate reconstructions. However, coral records from the Florida Keys are complicated by freshwater flux, which varies the Sr/Ca in seawater, thus confounding the Sr/Ca to SST signal. In this research, we compared the monthly Sr/Ca variations in three massive corals species ( Montastraea faveolata, Diploria strigosa, and Siderastrea siderea ) from the same reef in the nearly pristine Dry Tortugas National Park (24.70N, 82.80W) at the southwestern extent of the Florida Keys. This location is ideal for a calibration study as hourly water temperature records are available and the remote reef is far from mainland freshwater influence. These corals experienced the same environmental conditions (water depth, clarity, Sr/Ca of seawater, etc.) but differ in the mean annual growth rates (0.86 ±0.10 (1σ) cm/year M. faveolata ; 0.67 ±0.04 (1σ) cm/year D. strigosa ; 0.44 ±0.04 (1σ) cm/year S. siderea ). The mean Sr/Ca values are not the same but decrease with mean annual growth rates (9.201 ±0.091 (1σ) mmol/mol M. faveolata ; 9.177 ±0.081 (1σ) mmol/mol D. strigosa ; 8.964 ±0.12 (1σ) mmol/mol S. siderea ), thus supporting the “vital effect” or biological differences during calcification between coral species. The amplitude of the seasonal cycle in Sr/Ca varies with the slower growing S. siderea having the largest mean amplitude and D. strigosa the smallest (0.340 mmol/mol S. siderea ; 0.284 mmol/mol M. faveolata ; 0.238 mmol/mol D. strigosa ). We confirmed our sampling methods by conducting several intracolony and intercolony coral Sr/Ca replication tests and found a high correlation in all tests (>0.95 S. siderea ; >0.90 D. strigosa ; >0.83 M. faveolata; p < 0.05). The weighted linear regression of monthly coral Sr/Ca to mean monthly SST revealed that S. siderea captured the seasonal and interannual variability in SST ( r = -0.97, -0.61 monthly and monthly anomalies, respectively, p < 0.05). The other corals have reduced correlation with monthly anomalies and do not capture the seasonal variability with the same fidelity as S. siderea . All three corals were sampled along the thecal wall following the same procedures; however, each coral species has a different skeletal structure, density, and micro-scale growth patterns. We hypothesize the thecal wall of S. siderea calcifies at a continuous rate along the time-growth axis whereas the wall of D. strigosa and M. faveolata reflects a more complex signal. Of the three species, the slow growing S. siderea provides a robust reconstruction of mean monthly SST for the Dry Tortugas thus suitable for longer centennial-scale reconstructions.

Florida↗

USGS2015

On underestimation of global vulnerability to tree mortality and forest die-off from hotter drought in the Anthropocene

Patterns, mechanisms, projections, and consequences of tree mortality and associated broad-scale forest die-off due to drought accompanied by warmer temperatures—“hotter drought”, an emerging characteristic of the Anthropocene—are the focus of rapidly expanding literature. Despite recent observational, experimental, and modeling studies suggesting increased vulnerability of trees to hotter drought and associated pests and pathogens, substantial debate remains among research, management and policy-making communities regarding future tree mortality risks. We summarize key mortality-relevant findings, differentiating between those implying lesser versus greater levels of vulnerability. Evidence suggesting lesser vulnerability includes forest benefits of elevated [CO 2 ] and increased water-use efficiency; observed and modeled increases in forest growth and canopy greening; widespread increases in woody-plant biomass, density, and extent; compensatory physiological, morphological, and genetic mechanisms; dampening ecological feedbacks; and potential mitigation by forest management. In contrast, recent studies document more rapid mortality under hotter drought due to negative tree physiological responses and accelerated biotic attacks. Additional evidence suggesting greater vulnerability includes rising background mortality rates; projected increases in drought frequency, intensity, and duration; limitations of vegetation models such as inadequately represented mortality processes; warming feedbacks from die-off; and wildfire synergies. Grouping these findings we identify ten contrasting perspectives that shape the vulnerability debate but have not been discussed collectively. We also present a set of global vulnerability drivers that are known with high confidence: (1) droughts eventually occur everywhere; (2) warming produces hotter droughts; (3) atmospheric moisture demand increases nonlinearly with temperature during drought; (4) mortality can occur faster in hotter drought, consistent with fundamental physiology; (5) shorter droughts occur more frequently than longer droughts and can become lethal under warming, increasing the frequency of lethal drought nonlinearly; and (6) mortality happens rapidly relative to growth intervals needed for forest recovery. These high-confidence drivers, in concert with research supporting greater vulnerability perspectives, support an overall viewpoint of greater forest vulnerability globally. We surmise that mortality vulnerability is being discounted in part due to difficulties in predicting threshold responses to extreme climate events. Given the profound ecological and societal implications of underestimating global vulnerability to hotter drought, we highlight urgent challenges for research, management, and policy-making communities.

Ecosphere↗

USGS2020

Using paleo-archives to safeguard biodiversity under climate change

Strategies for 21st-century environmental management and conservation under global change require a strong understanding of the biological mechanisms that mediate responses to climate- and human-driven change to successfully mitigate range contractions, extinctions, and the degradation of ecosystem services. Biodiversity responses to past rapid warming events can be followed in situ and over extended periods, using cross-disciplinary approaches that provide cost-effective and scalable information for species’ conservation and the maintenance of resilient ecosystems in many bioregions. Beyond the intrinsic knowledge gain such integrative research will increasingly provide the context, tools, and relevant case studies to assist in mitigating climate-driven biodiversity losses in the 21st century and beyond.

Science↗

USGS2010

New software methods in radar ornithology using WSR-88D weather data and potential application to monitoring effects of climate change on bird migration

Radar ornithology has provided tools for studying the movement of birds, especially related to migration. Researchers have presented qualitative evidence suggesting that birds, or at least migration events, can be identified using large broad scale radars such as the WSR-88D used in the NEXRAD weather surveillance system. This is potentially a boon for ornithologists because such data cover a large portion of the United States, are constantly being produced, are freely available, and have been archived since the early 1990s. A major obstacle to this research, however, has been that identifying birds in NEXRAD data has required a trained technician to manually inspect a graphically rendered radar sweep. A single site completes one volume scan every five to ten minutes, producing over 52,000 volume scans in one year. This is an immense amount of data, and manual classification is infeasible. We have developed a system that identifies biological echoes using machine learning techniques. This approach begins with training data using scans that have been classified by experts, or uses bird data collected in the field. The data are preprocessed to ensure quality and to emphasize relevant features. A classifier is then trained using this data and cross validation is used to measure performance. We compared neural networks, naive Bayes, and k-nearest neighbor classifiers. Empirical evidence is provided showing that this system can achieve classification accuracies in the 80th to 90th percentile. We propose to apply these methods to studying bird migration phenology and how it is affected by climate variability and change over multiple temporal scales.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2019

The ecology of chronic wasting disease in wildlife

Prions are misfolded infectious proteins responsible for a group of fatal neurodegenerative diseases termed transmissible spongiform encephalopathy or prion diseases. Chronic Wasting Disease (CWD) is the prion disease with the highest spillover potential, affecting at least seven Cervidae (deer) species. The zoonotic potential of CWD is inconclusive and cannot be ruled out. A risk of infection for other domestic and wildlife species is also plausible. Here, we review the current status of the knowledge with respect to CWD ecology in wildlife. Our current understanding of the geographic distribution of CWD lacks spatial and temporal detail, does not consider the biogeography of infectious diseases, and is largely biased by sampling based on hunters' cooperation and funding available for each region. Limitations of the methods used for data collection suggest that the extent and prevalence of CWD in wildlife is underestimated. If the zoonotic potential of CWD is confirmed in the short term, as suggested by recent results obtained in experimental animal models, there will be limited accurate epidemiological data to inform public health. Research gaps in CWD prion ecology include the need to identify specific biological characteristics of potential CWD reservoir species that better explain susceptibility to spillover, landscape and climate configurations that are suitable for CWD transmission, and the magnitude of sampling bias in our current understanding of CWD distribution and risk. Addressing these research gaps will help anticipate novel areas and species where CWD spillover is expected, which will inform control strategies. From an ecological perspective, control strategies could include assessing restoration of natural predators of CWD reservoirs, ultrasensitive CWD detection in biotic and abiotic reservoirs, and deer density and landscape modification to reduce CWD spread and prevalence.

Biological Reviews↗

USGS2018

Using research networks to create the comprehensive datasets needed to assess nutrient availability as a key determinant of terrestrial carbon cycling

A wide range of research shows that nutrient availability strongly influences terrestrial carbon (C) cycling and shapes ecosystem responses to environmental changes and hence terrestrial feedbacks to climate. Nonetheless, our understanding of nutrient controls remains far from complete and poorly quantified, at least partly due to a lack of informative, comparable, and accessible datasets at regional-to-global scales. A growing research infrastructure of multi-site networks are providing valuable data on C fluxes and stocks and are monitoring their responses to global environmental change and measuring responses to experimental treatments. These networks thus provide an opportunity for improving our understanding of C-nutrient cycle interactions and our ability to model them. However, coherent information on how nutrient cycling interacts with observed C cycle patterns is still generally lacking. Here, we argue that complementing available C-cycle measurements from monitoring and experimental sites with data characterizing nutrient availability will greatly enhance their power and will improve our capacity to forecast future trajectories of terrestrial C cycling and climate. Therefore, we propose a set of complementary measurements that are relatively easy to conduct routinely at any site or experiment and that, in combination with C cycle observations, can provide a robust characterization of the effects of nutrient availability across sites. In addition, we discuss the power of different observable variables for informing the formulation of models and constraining their predictions. Most widely available measurements of nutrient availability often do not align well with current modelling needs. This highlights the importance to foster the interaction between the empirical and modelling communities for setting future research priorities.

Environmental Research Letters↗